The Economic Naturalist | Robert Frank | Talks at Google
Summary
TLDRRobert Frank discusses his book 'The Economic Naturalist' at a Google event, emphasizing the importance of understanding fundamental economic concepts through engaging narratives and examples. He criticizes traditional economics education for overloading students with material, leading to poor retention of concepts like opportunity cost. Frank shares his educational philosophy of focusing on a few key ideas, illustrated with compelling real-world questions like why drive-up ATM keypads have Braille dots. His approach draws on experience teaching Nepali, emphasizing simplicity and repetition for deep learning. Frank highlights narratives' power to make concepts memorable and relatable and tackles misconceptions around opportunity costs by illustrating cost-benefit analysis with real-life scenarios.
Takeaways
- 👤 Robert Frank critiques traditional economics education for being ineffective.
- 📘 His book 'The Economic Naturalist' uses real-world questions to teach economics.
- 🔄 Focus on opportunity cost and cost-benefit analysis through stories.
- 👨🏫 Emphasizes teaching a few key concepts deeply rather than covering many topics superficially.
- 🔍 Uses everyday examples like ATM Braille pads to explain economic principles.
- 📖 Learning through narrative is more engaging and retains knowledge better.
- 🧠 Analyzing opportunity costs helps understand the value of alternatives.
- 🛠 Real-world scenarios make abstract economic ideas concrete.
- 🎓 Encourages an educational approach inspired by language acquisition methods.
- 🌟 Highlights the importance of clear, relatable teaching in economics.
Timeline
- 00:00:00 - 00:05:00
The speaker introduces Robert Frank, an accomplished economist and author, who will be discussing his book 'The Economic Naturalist.' Frank humorously notes the mixed perceptions people have of economists and emphasizes the ineffectiveness of traditional economic teaching methods, particularly highlighting the oversaturation of complex graphics in introductory courses which fail to impart foundational concepts.
- 00:05:00 - 00:10:00
Frank argues that introductory economics courses overwhelm students with content, leading to poor knowledge retention. He illustrates this with a study on 'opportunity cost,' revealing a significant number of students and even PhD economists fail to understand it. Frank posits that focusing on fewer economic concepts in depth would enhance learning.
- 00:10:00 - 00:15:00
Opportunities for better learning, as Frank showcases, lie in directly engaging students with practical examples. He recounts his own experience learning Nepali through repetitive, practical drills. This immersive method of learning contrasts sharply with the ineffective, traditional approach of overwhelming students with theory rather than practical engagement.
- 00:15:00 - 00:20:00
The speaker highlights the simplicity and effectiveness of learning through examples and narratives, suggesting that students retain ideas better this way. Frank uses the theory of opportunity cost to explain behaviors and phenomena in various contexts—from the attitudes of New Yorkers to externalities affecting wildlife—to emphasize the power of practical examples in learning.
- 00:20:00 - 00:25:00
Frank introduces the 'cost-benefit principle,' simplifying the decision-making process by weighing actions' benefits against their costs. He uses everyday analogies—such as choosing between buying an alarm clock or a laptop at different prices and locations—to drive home the point that economic decisions should be consistent regardless of context.
- 00:25:00 - 00:30:00
Frank employs the concept of 'hurdle pricing,' using practical examples from everyday life to explain how businesses use psychological pricing strategies to target different consumer groups. He explains that people are often incentivized to overcome trivial obstacles in order to secure discounts, illustrating concepts like price discrimination through tangible instances.
- 00:30:00 - 00:35:00
The narrative shifts to biological examples to elucidate economic principles. Frank discusses how male physical traits in certain species result from evolutionary arms races, leading to inefficiencies, analogous to economic markets. He links these examples back to economic principles, suggesting that market forces sometimes push behaviors and strategies beyond rational limits.
- 00:35:00 - 00:40:00
Frank critiques the rational choice model in economics through real-world analogies, arguing against unregulated individual choices that lead to suboptimal group outcomes. He illustrates this with examples, such as helmet regulations in hockey, to show that individual pursuits can conflict with collective well-being, demanding sensible regulations.
- 00:40:00 - 00:45:00
Frank reflects on institutional regulations and their conflict with individual liberties, using sports analogies to illustrate how common interests govern individual behavior for greater societal benefit. He argues that regulations often aim to curb excessive competitive behaviors, improving outcomes for the group over individual advantage.
- 00:45:00 - 00:55:01
Frank wraps up by answering questions on the relevance and adaptation of his teaching methods, the reception of his ideas, and the broader implications of pairing economic analysis with ethical considerations. He insists on the importance of contextual and narrative-driven teaching for meaningful real-world learning, emphasizing the practical, transformative impact of his methodology.
Mind Map
Video Q&A
Who is Robert Frank?
Robert Frank is a professor of management and economics at Cornell University and an author of several books, including 'The Economic Naturalist'.
What is 'The Economic Naturalist' about?
The book explores economic concepts through engaging questions, focusing on opportunity cost and cost-benefit analysis.
Why does Robert Frank believe that students often don't retain economic concepts?
Frank argues that introductory economics courses cover too much material, without focusing enough on understanding core concepts deeply.
What is an example of a question from 'The Economic Naturalist'?
One question is why ATM keypads at drive-up locations have Braille dots, which is explained by the need for consistent manufacturing processes.
What is Robert Frank's approach to teaching economics?
He believes in focusing on a few core economic concepts and illustrating them with relatable and engaging real-world examples.
How did Robert Frank teach Nepali effectively in the Peace Corp?
He utilized repetitive drills and active participation, focusing on simple, practical language skills akin to how a child learns.
What misconception does the book challenge?
The notion that more content coverage equates to better learning, advocating instead for depth over breadth in understanding.
Why do people often misunderstand opportunity cost?
Many people struggle with the concept because traditional teaching methods don't emphasize practical application and comprehension.
How does Robert Frank view the role of narratives in learning?
He believes narratives are a powerful tool for understanding and retaining economic concepts, as they are more engaging and memorable.
What example does Robert Frank use to illustrate cost-benefit analysis?
He uses the decision to drive downtown for a discount as a context for understanding the balance of benefits and costs.
View more video summaries
- 00:00:00hi everyone and welcome to today's
- 00:00:01authors at Google event it's my pleasure
- 00:00:03to bring Robert Frank to Google today um
- 00:00:06he's the author of several books
- 00:00:07including the winter take all society
- 00:00:09and principles principles of economics
- 00:00:11which he co-authored with Ben beri he
- 00:00:13writes the monthly column the economics
- 00:00:16scene for the New York Times and is
- 00:00:18currently a professor of management and
- 00:00:20professor of Economics at the Johnson
- 00:00:22Graduate School of Management at Cornell
- 00:00:24University he's here today to speak
- 00:00:25about his book The Economic naturalist
- 00:00:27we'll be taking questions and citing
- 00:00:29books afterward
- 00:00:30um without any further Ado please join
- 00:00:32me in welcoming Robert Frank to
- 00:00:39Google thank you Ricky yeah it's a
- 00:00:41pleasure to be here uh just to see the
- 00:00:43the sort of the epicenter of the winter
- 00:00:45take all Society is kind of a thrill for
- 00:00:47me uh this book is one uh I've been
- 00:00:51having a great deal of fun talking about
- 00:00:53because it it's one I can be effusive in
- 00:00:56my praise of because it's two-thirds of
- 00:00:58it uh sourc to my students it's a as it
- 00:01:02become clear as I explained the nature
- 00:01:05of it uh there's some great ideas in the
- 00:01:07book and most of them are not mine but
- 00:01:09I'm I'm really pleased to have a chance
- 00:01:10to share them with you I've been
- 00:01:12teaching economics at Cornell for a long
- 00:01:15time I started
- 00:01:161972 uh three friends of mine in
- 00:01:19different cities sent me this cartoon
- 00:01:21shortly after I started uh I'd like to
- 00:01:23introduce you to Marty Thorn Decker he's
- 00:01:24an economist but he's really very nice
- 00:01:27I've always thought cartoons are data if
- 00:01:30the artist does a drawing and you get it
- 00:01:32then that's telling you something about
- 00:01:33the world uh so what what is it exactly
- 00:01:37I I had noticed people reacting to
- 00:01:38economists uh with fear and loathing
- 00:01:42long before I even saw this cartoon
- 00:01:44people would ask me at cocktail parties
- 00:01:45what did I do and I'd say I was an econ
- 00:01:48I grew to dread saying that I was an
- 00:01:50economist because you could just see the
- 00:01:51Panic look on people's faces what what
- 00:01:54was it uh that made them so unhappy to
- 00:01:57learn I was an economist so I started
- 00:01:58asking people and the great thing is
- 00:02:00people will try to answer questions like
- 00:02:02that you know so they thought and they
- 00:02:04sort of dredged back in memory you know
- 00:02:06why did they have that reaction and
- 00:02:08surprisingly often people said to me
- 00:02:11that they'd had an introductory course
- 00:02:13all these many years ago and there were
- 00:02:15these horrible equations and graphs that
- 00:02:17was their memory of the course this is a
- 00:02:20a famous graph I clipped from a a book
- 00:02:23an a leading seller in the introductory
- 00:02:25Market that builds itself as a less is
- 00:02:27more book it's a graph that the
- 00:02:29originator and his draftsman argued
- 00:02:31about endlessly the draftsman finally
- 00:02:34persuaded Jacob Viner that it couldn't
- 00:02:36be drawn according to the economist
- 00:02:38specifications and I won't bore you with
- 00:02:40the Gory details except to say that this
- 00:02:42graph doesn't belong in the introductory
- 00:02:44course this is just not a good way for
- 00:02:47economic students to be learning about
- 00:02:49the basic ideas of our science it's just
- 00:02:51a total waste of their time uh maybe at
- 00:02:54some point this is the right thing for
- 00:02:56them to but not during the introductory
- 00:02:58course what we've discovered CED now as
- 00:03:00a result of systematic investigation of
- 00:03:03uh the outcome of the principal's course
- 00:03:05is that when students take an exam 6
- 00:03:08months after having taken the basic
- 00:03:10principles course you can't
- 00:03:13tell uh that they've taken the course at
- 00:03:15all they score about the same as people
- 00:03:17who never took the course uh which if
- 00:03:18you think about what a scandalous level
- 00:03:20of of performance that is I mean if it
- 00:03:22were in any other sector there would be
- 00:03:24lawsuits filed there'd be people wanting
- 00:03:25their money back here we just offer the
- 00:03:28course nobody learns anything and uh
- 00:03:30life goes on it's it's it's interesting
- 00:03:33uh the insulation from feedback that the
- 00:03:35course operates
- 00:03:37in I think the the problem is that
- 00:03:39people ask how much can I cover today
- 00:03:41they want to and then if they cover a
- 00:03:42lot wow I was good today I really
- 00:03:44covered a lot you really need to ask how
- 00:03:46much can people absorb uh at a setting
- 00:03:49and what's the best weigh in people
- 00:03:50don't typically ask that
- 00:03:52question so if you took an economics
- 00:03:55course here's an idea you should have
- 00:03:56learned about uh everybody says it's one
- 00:03:59of the ideas uh some former students of
- 00:04:02mine uh did a paper designed to test
- 00:04:05whether people did learn about
- 00:04:07opportunity cost in any meaningful way
- 00:04:09from the introductory course so here's a
- 00:04:12here's the paper uh it was published in
- 00:04:14one of the Berkeley electronic
- 00:04:16journals they asked students this
- 00:04:20question uh here's the preamble to it
- 00:04:23you've got a free ticket to see Clapton
- 00:04:24tonight no resale value uh that's
- 00:04:27important the only other thing you're
- 00:04:28thinking about doing is seeing Dylan
- 00:04:30tonight uh they're it's his last stop
- 00:04:33where you are you won't be able to get
- 00:04:34to see him again either they're both on
- 00:04:36their farewell tours you don't have a
- 00:04:39ticket to Dylan to get one you have to
- 00:04:41spend
- 00:04:42$40 and on a given day you'd be willing
- 00:04:45to pay as much as $50 to see
- 00:04:47Dylan okay you've got your Clapton
- 00:04:50ticket there's no other cost associated
- 00:04:52with seeing either performer no taxi
- 00:04:54fars no babysitters nothing just strip
- 00:04:57away all the extraneous complexity so
- 00:05:00you're willing to pay 50 to see Dylan it
- 00:05:02costs 40 to buy a ticket you don't have
- 00:05:04one yet what's the opportunity cost of
- 00:05:08seeing the Clapton concert remember the
- 00:05:10definition I flashed quickly on the
- 00:05:12screen said the opportunity cost is the
- 00:05:14value of what you give up to do it okay
- 00:05:16and so here the only thing you're giving
- 00:05:18up is seeing the Dylan concert what's
- 00:05:20the value you're giving
- 00:05:21up what's the opportunity cost of seeing
- 00:05:24Eric clam it was a multiple choice
- 00:05:26question zero was one possibility 10
- 00:05:3040 or 50 pick
- 00:05:32one there's a uniquely correct answer
- 00:05:35and that's
- 00:05:36it the you're giving up the Dylan
- 00:05:39concert it's worth $50 to you but you
- 00:05:42got to pay $40 to see it and so what you
- 00:05:45really giving up is the $10 difference
- 00:05:47that's your economic surplus from so
- 00:05:50it's not such an easy question maybe but
- 00:05:51if you had a decent course that stressed
- 00:05:53this concept you ought to have been able
- 00:05:55to answer it
- 00:05:577.4% of 270 undergraduates they surveyed
- 00:06:00got it right think about it uh if you
- 00:06:02just guessed you'd get it right 25% of
- 00:06:04the time so you can say a little bit of
- 00:06:06knowledge is a dangerous thing here uh
- 00:06:08we're steering them uh in the wrong
- 00:06:11direction if we're steering them at all
- 00:06:13they looked at some students who' never
- 00:06:15had the course they didn't do so well
- 00:06:16either but they did more than twice as
- 00:06:18well as the students who'd had a course
- 00:06:20okay as again again I say my hypothesis
- 00:06:23that we're just throwing so much stuff
- 00:06:25at them and we're not sort of going into
- 00:06:26it in depth and letting them see how it
- 00:06:28works that they don't really get it at
- 00:06:29all goes by and a blur they investigated
- 00:06:31a different hypothesis it was that the
- 00:06:33professors who are teaching them the
- 00:06:35opportunity cost concept never really
- 00:06:37learned it very well themselves they
- 00:06:39took an introductory course where it was
- 00:06:40one of a thousand items on the syllabus
- 00:06:43so they said let's see how the
- 00:06:44professors do they went to the AA in
- 00:06:48Philadelphia the annual convention asked
- 00:06:51200 almost 200 PhD economists these are
- 00:06:54the distinguished ones the ones who
- 00:06:55don't do do well don't like to show up
- 00:06:57at the convention they're embarrassed so
- 00:06:59so
- 00:07:0025.1% of them chose zero I can't think
- 00:07:03of any narrative under which that could
- 00:07:05conceivably be the correct answer 21.6%
- 00:07:08chose the correct answer the least
- 00:07:10frequently chosen one of the four 25.6%
- 00:07:13chose 40 and
- 00:07:1427.6% chose 50 I was so astonished by
- 00:07:18this I wrote one of my New York Times
- 00:07:20columns about it and I got angry emails
- 00:07:21from economus saying oh why didn't you
- 00:07:23say you meant net opportunity costs I
- 00:07:25thought you meant gross opportunity
- 00:07:27costs well do a Google search on net
- 00:07:30opportunity cost and gross opportunity
- 00:07:32cost in quotes nothing comes up you know
- 00:07:34there's no such concept as that it's not
- 00:07:37it's there's a right answer here and
- 00:07:39they didn't get it for the most part so
- 00:07:42uh Ben banki and I sort of animated by
- 00:07:44these findings thought well if you just
- 00:07:46pick six or seven ideas and hammer away
- 00:07:49at them for a semester showing them how
- 00:07:51they work in in specific contexts that
- 00:07:54people take an interested in interest in
- 00:07:56people ought to be able to master them
- 00:07:58pretty well in form month's time uh
- 00:08:00that's a reasonable goal and I think
- 00:08:02we've scored on that so the opportunity
- 00:08:05cost concept becomes clearer when you
- 00:08:08see it in a variety of contexts and here
- 00:08:10here's a nice one so why do residents of
- 00:08:12Manhattan tend to be rude and impatient
- 00:08:14while residents of Topeka tend to be
- 00:08:16friendly and courteous this is obviously
- 00:08:18a caricature but if you open a map in
- 00:08:21toeka there'll be people immediately
- 00:08:22come ask asking whether you need help in
- 00:08:25Manhattan they'll they'll Scurry by uh
- 00:08:28typically sometimes they'll stop help uh
- 00:08:31the student who did this uh question in
- 00:08:34my course suggested that it might be
- 00:08:36because the opportunity cost of time is
- 00:08:39nowhere on the planet higher than in New
- 00:08:41York uh the wage rate is higher per hour
- 00:08:43there than any other City uh the value
- 00:08:46of the things you could be doing if you
- 00:08:48weren't working uh is much higher there
- 00:08:50than any other city and so if you
- 00:08:51interrupt somebody's trajectory in New
- 00:08:53York you're imposing a much bigger cost
- 00:08:55on her than in Tupa maybe that's not the
- 00:08:59right answer but it's at least an
- 00:09:00interesting answer and it's one that uh
- 00:09:02makes sense logically and helps you keep
- 00:09:04the concept in
- 00:09:05mind this whole less is more idea uh I
- 00:09:09saw for the first time in the language
- 00:09:11instruction domain i' I'd like many
- 00:09:13people taken multiple years of different
- 00:09:16foreign languages four years in my case
- 00:09:17of high school Spanish another couple of
- 00:09:19years of German I traveled in Spain I
- 00:09:21traveled in Germany I had a very
- 00:09:23difficult time making myself understood
- 00:09:25uh during those first trips you know
- 00:09:27people would look at me uh
- 00:09:30I I will try to recreate the exchanges
- 00:09:33uh we tried to have but it was clear
- 00:09:34that four years was uh not successful in
- 00:09:38making me an effective Communicator in
- 00:09:40Spanish uh so maybe you just can't learn
- 00:09:44in four years well it turned out uh when
- 00:09:46I was a Peace Corp volunteer trainee I
- 00:09:48was uh set to go to Nepal in 13 weeks I
- 00:09:50was going to be teaching math and
- 00:09:52science to 9th and 10th graders in
- 00:09:54Nepali uh like most everyone else I'd
- 00:09:58never heard a word of Nepali when I
- 00:09:59arrived at the the camp they started
- 00:10:02simple they didn't do any complicated uh
- 00:10:06language equivalents of that graph I
- 00:10:07showed you uh on the E economics uh
- 00:10:10slide uh words uh at a time a couple
- 00:10:14words then short sentences there was an
- 00:10:16enormous amount of repetition drill if
- 00:10:18you couldn't get it they would make you
- 00:10:19keep drilling it until you did get it
- 00:10:21and it was always an active learning
- 00:10:23process you had to be supplying things
- 00:10:25on the Fly and that's how you sort of
- 00:10:27get the knowledge built in in a way
- 00:10:29where it's actually accessible to you
- 00:10:31when you can make use of it and then
- 00:10:33build on your own that was that was the
- 00:10:35the the theme of the program it was
- 00:10:37basically to mimic the way a child
- 00:10:39learns to speak his native tongue that's
- 00:10:41exactly the way they they tried to do it
- 00:10:43uh that was the very first sentence I
- 00:10:45ever learned in Nepali yopi mahot I can
- 00:10:48say it in my sleep uh this hat is
- 00:10:50expensive it's a good sentence uh you
- 00:10:52have to bargain for everything so to be
- 00:10:54able to say that something's too
- 00:10:55expensive is is you know right out of
- 00:10:57the box something useful then they would
- 00:10:58say lamo MOA that's the the noun for
- 00:11:01long socks and we would have to on the
- 00:11:03Fly say l n these long socks or MOA
- 00:11:10mongot these long socks are expensive
- 00:11:13and if you couldn't do it on the Fly
- 00:11:14then you'd keep drilling it and it was
- 00:11:16it was just this marvelous sense of
- 00:11:17empowerment we would go and do these uh
- 00:11:20they wouldn't have to tell us go do uh
- 00:11:22conversations in theal we wanted to do
- 00:11:24them just because we could could do
- 00:11:26them if I had one principle I could
- 00:11:29teach people I said we try to drum uh
- 00:11:31three uh five or six of them into
- 00:11:33students heads during the term but if if
- 00:11:35there was one I could do it would be the
- 00:11:36the basic Grand Daddy volum the cost
- 00:11:38benefit principle it's very simple
- 00:11:41sounding it says do it if the benefits
- 00:11:43exceed the costs uh there turns out to
- 00:11:45be complication involved figuring out
- 00:11:48what's the the relevant measure of a
- 00:11:50benefit and cost but the the idea itself
- 00:11:52is fairly simple here's an example
- 00:11:56you're about to buy an alarm clock at
- 00:11:57the campus store right next door or a
- 00:11:59friend tells you you can get it downtown
- 00:12:01at Kmart a short drive away for
- 00:12:04$10 you drive down to Kmart these are
- 00:12:06questions I've given students multiple
- 00:12:08times invariably they will answer of
- 00:12:11course I would go down to the Kmart 90%
- 00:12:14it's a cost benefit question but there's
- 00:12:15no right answer it's a question how much
- 00:12:17trouble do you think it is to go
- 00:12:18downtown to get the the clock for $10 at
- 00:12:22Kmart so 90% would go downtown then I
- 00:12:25asked them this question you're about to
- 00:12:27buy a laptop at the campus store for 20
- 00:12:29$510 it's available at the Kmart same
- 00:12:32laptop you got to send it to the same
- 00:12:33manufacturer if it breaks do you go down
- 00:12:35would you go downtown to the Kmart and
- 00:12:37get it here they think I've asked a
- 00:12:39totally stupid question well of course
- 00:12:41not just to save .01% on the price of
- 00:12:44the laptop who would be stupid enough to
- 00:12:46do that well it turns out if you are a
- 00:12:48rational person and you decide by
- 00:12:50weighing costs and benefits there's no
- 00:12:53right answer but the answer ought to be
- 00:12:54the same for for both of these examples
- 00:12:57so the benefit is $10 in both cases
- 00:12:59the cost is whatever it is if you think
- 00:13:01it's not worth it to drive downtown for
- 00:13:03less than $100 then you should buy the
- 00:13:05item at the campus store in both cases
- 00:13:08if you think the inconvenience of
- 00:13:09driving downtown is $2 worth then go
- 00:13:12downtown in both cases so nobody likes
- 00:13:15to be an irrational person the students
- 00:13:17are a little troubled by this but they
- 00:13:19but they like going back to ask these
- 00:13:20same questions to their friends in the
- 00:13:22dorms then pointing out that they're
- 00:13:23irrational when they answer inconsistent
- 00:13:25so on but it's a way of sort of
- 00:13:27hammering the message home it's it's
- 00:13:29it's it's the message in a familiar
- 00:13:31context that's how the message syncs in
- 00:13:33much more readily I always give them an
- 00:13:35example once they've seen these just to
- 00:13:37hammer it one more time you know there's
- 00:13:40not a such thing as too much repetition
- 00:13:42in this process so you you got a flight
- 00:13:45coupon you can get a discount on one of
- 00:13:47two trips you're going to take in the
- 00:13:48next weeks you're going to use it for
- 00:13:50one or the other not both there's no
- 00:13:52other trip you can use it for you can
- 00:13:54either save $90 on your $200 trip to
- 00:13:57Chicago or100 $ on your $2,000 trip to
- 00:14:01Tokyo which one should you use it for
- 00:14:04and everybody gets it right they all say
- 00:14:06correctly that you should use it to save
- 00:14:08$100 because that's better than saving
- 00:14:11$90 but it's not a waste of time to ask
- 00:14:13the question it's another chance to sort
- 00:14:15of flex that brain muscle and get it a
- 00:14:17little bit more firmly cemented
- 00:14:20in here's a nice application of the cost
- 00:14:23benefit principle so my former student
- 00:14:26Bill joah asked this question why why do
- 00:14:29the drive up keypads on the the ATM
- 00:14:32machines have Braille dots on them you
- 00:14:33know you can't drive if you're blind why
- 00:14:35do you need Braille dots on those
- 00:14:36machines why bother and his his
- 00:14:39explanation was that they're going to
- 00:14:42make the machines with Braille dots on
- 00:14:43the keypads for the walkup locations
- 00:14:46anyway having made them why not make
- 00:14:48them all the same way rather than keep
- 00:14:50two separate inventories and worry about
- 00:14:52which machines go to which destinations
- 00:14:53it's just easier and cheaper to do it
- 00:14:55that way so same benefit it doesn't
- 00:14:58bother the driver D that they're there
- 00:14:59nobody's inconvenienced by them and it's
- 00:15:01cheaper so why not brail dots on
- 00:15:04keypads here's the assignment I give
- 00:15:06them and this is where I think 90% of
- 00:15:08the learning in the course takes place
- 00:15:10you have to show them the principles and
- 00:15:12how they're how they're done but the
- 00:15:13real uh progress takes place when they
- 00:15:16try to pose these questions and answer
- 00:15:18them so the assignment uh is really
- 00:15:21inspired by the field biologists
- 00:15:24approach if you if you've had a biology
- 00:15:25course you know you can go out in the in
- 00:15:27the wild and see things that never
- 00:15:29noticed before there's suddenly
- 00:15:30interesting textures and patterns in the
- 00:15:32landscape that just escaped your notice
- 00:15:34before that so if you watch animals uh
- 00:15:38and you've had a darwinian Evolution
- 00:15:39course then there's a a very uh
- 00:15:42interesting pattern that you'll see
- 00:15:43which is that in vertebrate species the
- 00:15:45males are almost always bigger and more
- 00:15:46colorful than the females why is that
- 00:15:49well Darwin had a nice uh concise answer
- 00:15:52that's the bull elephant seal you can go
- 00:15:54down to the Ana noo preserve uh south of
- 00:15:58here and see the in the winter time the
- 00:16:00bull weighs 6,000 lb 23 ft long bigger
- 00:16:03than a Lincoln Navigator SUV this animal
- 00:16:06the cow 8 to 1200 lb they have to mate
- 00:16:09side by side or else the bull will crush
- 00:16:11her to death uh in in the act of mating
- 00:16:13why is the bull so much bigger than the
- 00:16:16cow Darwin's theory was that in
- 00:16:19vertebrate species you see mostly
- 00:16:21polygynous species that means males take
- 00:16:23more than one mate if they can you
- 00:16:26stress if they can because if some males
- 00:16:28take more than one mate that means other
- 00:16:30males aren't going to get any mates at
- 00:16:32all and so it's a huge win or take all
- 00:16:34contest to see who gets mates and they
- 00:16:36Square Off on the beach and they battle
- 00:16:39until one of them Lumbers off bloodied
- 00:16:40and exhausted four or five hours later
- 00:16:43and the winter claims a huge prize in
- 00:16:45the darwinian scheme it's it's 50 to 100
- 00:16:48females every one of them are going to
- 00:16:50carry his jeans for larger body size
- 00:16:54which were what uh helped him win the
- 00:16:56fight with the other would be dominant
- 00:16:58male
- 00:16:59it's bad for the seals as a group to be
- 00:17:01so big they'd be all of them better off
- 00:17:03they weigh half as much they're much
- 00:17:04more vulnerable to Predators they have
- 00:17:06arthritis at a younger age they have to
- 00:17:08their workday is very honorous they have
- 00:17:10to eat way more fish than they would if
- 00:17:12they were smaller but for any individual
- 00:17:14male to be smaller that would be a
- 00:17:16disaster so it's a it's an interesting
- 00:17:19theory that sort of pops into your mind
- 00:17:21if you've got some background principles
- 00:17:23you see things that make sense to you
- 00:17:25and you learn the principles a lot more
- 00:17:26effectively by seeing them in action
- 00:17:28it's everywhere you know so in pous
- 00:17:31species the the elk have way broader
- 00:17:33antlers than would make sense for Elk as
- 00:17:35a group to have when they're chased into
- 00:17:37a Woods they're they're dead meat
- 00:17:39they're surrounded and killed easily by
- 00:17:41Wolves but if a male had smaller antlers
- 00:17:44than other males he wouldn't end up
- 00:17:46having a crack at being the dominant
- 00:17:48male and so the genes for his smaller
- 00:17:51antlers would die with him that's the
- 00:17:53sort of the ultimate loser category in
- 00:17:55the darwinian scheme
- 00:17:59it's a it's a useful Theory uh and if if
- 00:18:01you're willing to think about this kind
- 00:18:04of theory in scientific terms the the
- 00:18:06the test is to look for circumstances
- 00:18:09where the theory doesn't apply uh people
- 00:18:11I think mostly use the Expression the
- 00:18:14exception that proves the rule
- 00:18:15incorrectly they they've got some Theory
- 00:18:17somebody points out a counter example
- 00:18:20and they dismiss it saying oh that's the
- 00:18:21exception that proves the rule well how
- 00:18:23exactly does that prove the rule it
- 00:18:25seems like it disproves the rule and
- 00:18:26you're Sliding Away from the the uncover
- 00:18:28comtable fact of that I think the the
- 00:18:30correct understanding or at least the
- 00:18:32one that makes sense to me of the
- 00:18:34expression is that uh it it refers to
- 00:18:37the older sense of the verb to prove
- 00:18:39which means to test it's the exception
- 00:18:40that tests the rule so you look at a
- 00:18:42species that's not polygynous a
- 00:18:44monogamous species like the albatross
- 00:18:47the prediction there is not that males
- 00:18:48will be bigger there's no reason for
- 00:18:50them to be they're not fighting for
- 00:18:51Access and so in fact in the albatross
- 00:18:54and in other monogamous species it's
- 00:18:56typically very hard to tell the males
- 00:18:57from the females they're about the same
- 00:18:59size and
- 00:19:01color this is these are all examples of
- 00:19:04what's come to be called The Narrative
- 00:19:05theory of learning you know there these
- 00:19:07are there stories they there actors in
- 00:19:09them there's a plot the human brain
- 00:19:12absorbs narrative like a water sponge
- 00:19:16gets sucked up uh water sucks up uh uh
- 00:19:19into a sponge it's just like a key
- 00:19:21sliding into a lock there's no swimming
- 00:19:23Upstream if you're trying to get a
- 00:19:24narrative into the human human brain
- 00:19:26that's how we evolved as storytellers we
- 00:19:28didn't Squat and draw equations in the
- 00:19:31dirt with a twig it was you know you
- 00:19:32told your your your story to someone and
- 00:19:36that's how it got across and that's just
- 00:19:39the easiest way for people to absorb
- 00:19:41information and if if you can get it
- 00:19:43into a narrative uh why not take
- 00:19:45advantage of that natural strength of
- 00:19:47the human brain jome Bruner says that if
- 00:19:49a kid doesn't catch an experience in
- 00:19:51narrative form it's lost forever the
- 00:19:53kids who do uh manage to tell a story
- 00:19:56about an experience can uh re uh access
- 00:19:59that experience multiple times mull it
- 00:20:01over learn from it if you don't catch it
- 00:20:03that way it's lost forever students
- 00:20:05aren't so different from children adults
- 00:20:07aren't so different from students you
- 00:20:09know this goes all the way up the chain
- 00:20:11I tell my students they have to do two
- 00:20:13of these a semester one at midterm one
- 00:20:16at uh the end of the term their question
- 00:20:19has to be interesting I tell them if I
- 00:20:20if I don't think your question's
- 00:20:22interesting why on Earth would I want to
- 00:20:23read your answer to it uh don't ask why
- 00:20:27do we order out for pizza when we're
- 00:20:28tired uh yeah well because it's too
- 00:20:31costly to cook when you're yeah that's
- 00:20:33true but it's not interesting so they
- 00:20:36have a hard time the first uh round
- 00:20:38coming up with an interesting question
- 00:20:40many of them they come by oh is this
- 00:20:41question interesting enough and often
- 00:20:43times the question isn't interesting but
- 00:20:44they're smart kids and they think about
- 00:20:47lots of questions to come up with an
- 00:20:48interesting one and uh the the really
- 00:20:51best ones truly are interesting uh and I
- 00:20:54say that it's good to have an
- 00:20:55interesting question because then you're
- 00:20:56going to want to work harder to come up
- 00:20:57with an answer to to it but mainly
- 00:21:00because when somebody hears your
- 00:21:01question he'll want to repeat it to
- 00:21:03someone else and it's each retelling of
- 00:21:06the story that gets the idea more firmly
- 00:21:08rooted in the brain that's I think the
- 00:21:10the really deep beauty of this
- 00:21:12assignment I think my all-time favorite
- 00:21:14submission was by Jen doski I'm going to
- 00:21:17see see her at dinner tonight uh she and
- 00:21:19her husband were my students uh in 1997
- 00:21:21she had gotten married about 6 months
- 00:21:23earlier she wanted to know why Brides
- 00:21:26who know they'll never wear their
- 00:21:27wedding dress again spend thousands of
- 00:21:29dollars on it while Grooms who have
- 00:21:31scores of opportunities to wear Tux in
- 00:21:33the future rent a cheap
- 00:21:35one it's it's a great question because
- 00:21:38it seems on the surface that it should
- 00:21:39be just the other way around uh you're
- 00:21:42you're never going to wear the dress
- 00:21:43again rent rent the thing you know if
- 00:21:46you're going to have a suit you're going
- 00:21:47to wear many times you know get
- 00:21:49one her answer began with what some
- 00:21:52people think is a strong assumption but
- 00:21:54no one's ever said it seemed
- 00:21:55unreasonable it was that in in most
- 00:21:59societies on big occasions it's more
- 00:22:01important for a woman to make a fashion
- 00:22:03statement than for a man no one's ever
- 00:22:05come up after I've discussed this
- 00:22:07example no that's not the way it is
- 00:22:09around here uh if you'll and you can you
- 00:22:11can get that assumption from some
- 00:22:13biological reasoning in monogamous or
- 00:22:16largely monogamous species though
- 00:22:18there's a lot more ornamentation on the
- 00:22:19female than than the male so if you
- 00:22:22start with that then uh it's a matter of
- 00:22:23simple economics of the rental business
- 00:22:25you'd need a 100 or so gowns in each
- 00:22:27size to enable a bride to make a fashion
- 00:22:29statement they would rent out every 8
- 00:22:32nine 10 years the cost of carrying that
- 00:22:34inventory would mean the the rental fee
- 00:22:36would be I don't know 110% of the
- 00:22:37purchase price just to cover their cost
- 00:22:40who would rent for 110 when you could
- 00:22:42buy for 100 so that that's essentially a
- 00:22:44nonviable business maybe there will be
- 00:22:46an internet rental gown business that
- 00:22:48Springs up that's what you'd predict
- 00:22:49from the long tail Theory but so far
- 00:22:51mainly it's been Brides By if you're a
- 00:22:54guy and you don't care that you wear the
- 00:22:55same suit everyone else wears then the
- 00:22:57companies can hold two or three suits in
- 00:22:59inventory they'll they'll turn over
- 00:23:01rapidly eight or nine times a year and
- 00:23:03you can rent one for a quarter of the
- 00:23:04purchase price you can save a few bucks
- 00:23:07on a time when uh cash is tight and so
- 00:23:09many men do
- 00:23:11that why are child safety seats required
- 00:23:15in cars you drive to the supermarket
- 00:23:17three blocks away they'll ticket you in
- 00:23:19Ithaca if you don't have your kid
- 00:23:20strapped into one you can get on a
- 00:23:22flight at fso and fly to New York with
- 00:23:25your kid sitting loose on your
- 00:23:27lap why that
- 00:23:29distinction a lot of people say well
- 00:23:31it's because if the plane goes down
- 00:23:33doesn't matter whether you're strapped
- 00:23:34in so uh you
- 00:23:37know fine but that's mainly not why you
- 00:23:40have seat belts is in the event of a
- 00:23:42crash you are probably going to die if
- 00:23:43the plane crashes it's because there's
- 00:23:45turbulence or there's other unor events
- 00:23:48uh in in in flying and being strapped in
- 00:23:50really does help as much as being
- 00:23:52strapped in a seat Bel in a car helps
- 00:23:54and crashes and so why is it that they
- 00:23:57don't make you strap your k kid in uh
- 00:23:59the benefit side's Not So Different Mr
- 00:24:01ballot reason he said there's a big
- 00:24:03difference on the cost side if you've
- 00:24:04got room in your back seat it's
- 00:24:06essentially free to strap your kid in uh
- 00:24:08to a safety seat if you're on a full
- 00:24:10flight to New York you're talking about
- 00:24:12an extra seat which might cost a, bucks
- 00:24:15so nobody wants to say you know it's too
- 00:24:18expensive to keep you safe on this trip
- 00:24:19kid so we're just going to hope for the
- 00:24:21best but basically you know costs and
- 00:24:23benefits are are in the mix when people
- 00:24:25make decisions about health and safety
- 00:24:27just like anything else Carol H wanted
- 00:24:30to know why you have to pay more if you
- 00:24:32start in Honolulu and FL fly round trip
- 00:24:35to Kansas City than if you do the trip
- 00:24:37the other way around same plane same
- 00:24:41everything she argued that if you're
- 00:24:43starting in Kansas City going to
- 00:24:45Honolulu you're probably going on
- 00:24:47vacation there are lots of places you
- 00:24:48could go if they don't offer you a good
- 00:24:50Fair you'll go somewhere else if you're
- 00:24:52starting in Honolulu going to Kansas
- 00:24:55City you're probably not going on
- 00:24:57vacation uh
- 00:24:59you're probably going to see family or
- 00:25:01personal business something uh you're
- 00:25:02you're not choosing among destinations
- 00:25:04you're more of a captive customer it's a
- 00:25:06nice simple
- 00:25:09explanation here's one of my longtime
- 00:25:11favorites it may not even be uh a fact
- 00:25:14uh in the world I've heard the story
- 00:25:16many times so it might might be a fact
- 00:25:18but the interesting thing is it it could
- 00:25:20be a fact and it wouldn't be mysterious
- 00:25:22so the the the rumor always was that
- 00:25:24before the scratch and dent sail seers
- 00:25:26would send clerks out to the warehouse
- 00:25:28with ball pen hammers to Dent up some
- 00:25:30more stoves and refrigerators they were
- 00:25:31going to run out the next morning uh it
- 00:25:33used it started off this sale because
- 00:25:35appliances would get damaged in transit
- 00:25:38and so they would want to have uh a
- 00:25:40stock on uh on hand to to put on sale uh
- 00:25:44periodically rather than send them back
- 00:25:45to be be fixed it was just cheaper uh to
- 00:25:48to sell them at a cheap price but the
- 00:25:49sale was so successful that it's become
- 00:25:52what I call an example of the hurdle
- 00:25:53model of price discrimination you want
- 00:25:56to give the buyer who cares about price
- 00:25:58who won't buy at a high price a discount
- 00:26:00but you don't want to make that discount
- 00:26:02available to the people who would pay
- 00:26:04the high price so what do you do you put
- 00:26:06a hurdle in the buyer's path and say all
- 00:26:09right if you want to jump that hurdle
- 00:26:10we'll sell it to you on the cheap you
- 00:26:12don't want to jump the hurdle fine paid
- 00:26:14list price that's here's an exercise go
- 00:26:17out and look at the products you buy try
- 00:26:19to find examples of ones that don't
- 00:26:21offer you that option it's very rare
- 00:26:23there are some but it's very rare to see
- 00:26:24a product that doesn't give you the
- 00:26:26option of a rebate coupon or a temporary
- 00:26:28sale every once in a while here the
- 00:26:30hurdle is there are three hurdles you
- 00:26:31got to find out when it is clear your
- 00:26:33schedule get there on that day and then
- 00:26:35live with the knowledge that there's a
- 00:26:37dent in your refrigerator that wouldn't
- 00:26:39bother me especially it's going to be up
- 00:26:41against the wall no one will see it but
- 00:26:43some people well we don't have to have a
- 00:26:46refrigerator with a dent that's not the
- 00:26:47kind of people we are uh so it's a good
- 00:26:49and those are the people who are willing
- 00:26:51to pay list price it's a great device it
- 00:26:53turned out to
- 00:26:54be the tux Finds Its way into lots of my
- 00:26:58students examples this is another I
- 00:27:00think you know very good qu the the good
- 00:27:02questions have this twist to them it
- 00:27:04seem yeah why is that you know it should
- 00:27:05be the other way around you got a
- 00:27:06$20,000 car you rent it for 40 bucks a
- 00:27:09day $500 uh for
- 00:27:13uh for 90 bucks a day a car uh 20,000
- 00:27:17bucks 40 bucks a day what's going on
- 00:27:19here it seems like it it shouldn't be
- 00:27:20that way I like this one uh my wife
- 00:27:23asked me we were visiting Boston and
- 00:27:25we're going going through uh Quincy
- 00:27:27Market there was a a doall that had one
- 00:27:29of these signs why do they have those
- 00:27:30signs I could tell her that a student
- 00:27:32just turned this one in uh a few weeks
- 00:27:34ago and it's that the cashier if she
- 00:27:36doesn't ring the sale up can pocket the
- 00:27:38money and uh be out of there at the end
- 00:27:40of the day there's no way to reconcile
- 00:27:42the inventory in the back with what goes
- 00:27:44through each
- 00:27:45register the owner could hire people to
- 00:27:47stand there and watch the cashier it's
- 00:27:49just much cheaper to say to the customer
- 00:27:52you get a free meal if it's not rung up
- 00:27:54because once it's rung up then the
- 00:27:55cashier is responsible for the cash in
- 00:27:57the drawer to what went out across the
- 00:28:00counter at her
- 00:28:01register very simple application of the
- 00:28:04cost benefit
- 00:28:06reasoning that's jezelle bunin depending
- 00:28:09on which source you read she either
- 00:28:10earned $30 million last year or $15
- 00:28:12million last year anyway there's no mail
- 00:28:15model I could find last year that earned
- 00:28:16even a million dollars last year why the
- 00:28:19huge
- 00:28:21difference there's some uh reason to
- 00:28:23think blondes are smarter than brunettes
- 00:28:26uh uh there's better evidence that
- 00:28:28athletes are are smarter than
- 00:28:30non-athletes uh if you look at the the
- 00:28:33the correct random sample of the
- 00:28:34population why are there so many jokes
- 00:28:36about dumb jocks and dumb blonds it's an
- 00:28:38interesting question uh what's going on
- 00:28:42there
- 00:28:44grasos fatos one of my favorite
- 00:28:47questions uh the Broadway theaters will
- 00:28:49sell you a half price ticket at the last
- 00:28:50minute you want to buy an airline ticket
- 00:28:52at the last minute you pay double or
- 00:28:54triple interesting it's the same
- 00:28:57perishable seat in both cases if you
- 00:28:59don't sell it it's going to be lost
- 00:29:00forever why do they take such a
- 00:29:02different approach in the two
- 00:29:05cases I've got a chapter in the book
- 00:29:07psychology meets economics talking about
- 00:29:10some of the limitations of the cost
- 00:29:11benefit model uh so you could say well
- 00:29:14maybe the pilots are going to have tur
- 00:29:15hit turbulence you want them to get
- 00:29:17there safely uh or or maybe they won't
- 00:29:19be able to find the target you want them
- 00:29:20to come back you know none of the cost
- 00:29:22benefit models sound that
- 00:29:24plausible but the Kami Kazi Pilots were
- 00:29:27pilots first and foremost they weren't
- 00:29:29bus drivers selected to fly these
- 00:29:31missions and pilots wear helmets that's
- 00:29:33what pilots do so that's that's maybe a
- 00:29:35better explanation than the cost benefit
- 00:29:39explanations everybody ma males in
- 00:29:42particular think oh polygamy that'd be a
- 00:29:44great deal they think wow I could have
- 00:29:45three wives they don't
- 00:29:47think of the downside but if it's such a
- 00:29:51great thing for males why do the male
- 00:29:53legislators typically make it illegal uh
- 00:29:56it's against the law you can't have
- 00:29:57three wives uh the Big Love series sort
- 00:30:00of documents the The Life and Times of a
- 00:30:03typically successful attractive male
- 00:30:06who's managed to uh land three
- 00:30:10uh you know very very desirable females
- 00:30:13what what goes on in the background is
- 00:30:15the other part of the math if you got
- 00:30:1710% of the men with three males with
- 00:30:19three three mates each that means that
- 00:30:22in the rest of the population there's
- 00:30:24going to be nine men for every seven
- 00:30:26women so imagine that you're the modal
- 00:30:30man one of the the the guys who doesn't
- 00:30:32get three mates you're going to be
- 00:30:34searching in a pool where there's nine
- 00:30:36of you for every seven of them and
- 00:30:38supply and demand work much more
- 00:30:40forcefully in the relationship Market
- 00:30:42than in many other markets the terms of
- 00:30:44trade would shift sharply against men
- 00:30:47under the circumstances so you need to
- 00:30:49work on your abs for an hour a day now
- 00:30:51uh well maybe two hours a day under a
- 00:30:55polygamy law or or uh maybe two dozen
- 00:30:58roses not a dozen roses it would just
- 00:31:00get a lot tougher for males the same way
- 00:31:02it is for the bull elephant seals you
- 00:31:03got to be 6,000 lb to be a player uh
- 00:31:07better to avoid that arms race uh okay
- 00:31:10uh Rick I'm gonna ask how we're doing
- 00:31:12for time I don't want to Short change
- 00:31:13the question period we've got uh 20
- 00:31:16minutes or so I've got uh uh there
- 00:31:18there's a a collection of slides I left
- 00:31:20for the last that sort of highlight this
- 00:31:22distinction between what's attractive to
- 00:31:25the individual actor and one why uh the
- 00:31:29rational individual Choice often adds up
- 00:31:31to an outcome that's not very attractive
- 00:31:33for the group as a whole I can talk
- 00:31:36about those quickly and then take
- 00:31:37questions or we can skip
- 00:31:39that I'll go through that okay uh I've
- 00:31:42got another book just out uh called
- 00:31:44falling behind and uh these themes are
- 00:31:48more fully explored uh in this book but
- 00:31:50they're also there's a chapter devoted
- 00:31:52to them in the economic
- 00:31:55naturalist So Adam Smith uh he thought
- 00:31:59uh or his modern day Defenders at any
- 00:32:01rate say he thought that if you just
- 00:32:03turn people loose and tell them to do
- 00:32:04whatever they want you'll get great
- 00:32:06results Smith didn't think that uh he's
- 00:32:09been way oversold by some of his modern
- 00:32:11disciples uh what he did say was that if
- 00:32:14you turn individuals loose and tell them
- 00:32:16to do what they want you'll often get
- 00:32:18surprisingly good results so you know
- 00:32:21the the the contest among producers to
- 00:32:23come up with cost-saving ideas to
- 00:32:26increase their market share eventually
- 00:32:27that all redounds to the consumer in the
- 00:32:29form of lower prices it's amazing nobody
- 00:32:31had that story clearly in mind before
- 00:32:33Smith wrote about it but he was very
- 00:32:35well aware that you don't always get
- 00:32:38good results when the individuals uh
- 00:32:40battle with one another for for Market
- 00:32:42Supremacy and Darwin in particular uh
- 00:32:45who was influenced very clearly by Smith
- 00:32:47Never Thought competition among
- 00:32:49individual animals produced the greater
- 00:32:51good for the species sometimes it did
- 00:32:53but often times it didn't so that's the
- 00:32:55example of the bo elepant SE seal and
- 00:32:58the elk and so if you'll think about the
- 00:33:01many aspects in life that resemble a
- 00:33:04contest uh uh a whole host of important
- 00:33:07aspects of Life are graded on the curve
- 00:33:09there's just no way to describe it than
- 00:33:11that it's not how well you do it's how
- 00:33:13well you do compared to the people
- 00:33:15you're competing with that determines
- 00:33:17whether you're going to get a
- 00:33:18satisfactory reward by your lights so uh
- 00:33:22it's a commonplace idea you know so the
- 00:33:24context influences the kind of gifts you
- 00:33:26have to give uh you have to give a dozen
- 00:33:29roses to show your wife you love her in
- 00:33:31a rich Society a rose will do said
- 00:33:33Richard
- 00:33:35lar in contest typically you get an arms
- 00:33:38race as the contestants try to position
- 00:33:40themselves to win and the the
- 00:33:42investments in performance enhance
- 00:33:44enhancement often do good things but
- 00:33:46they almost always go too far and the
- 00:33:49organizers of every contest figure out
- 00:33:52ways to try and limit the investments in
- 00:33:55positioning by the contestants just in
- 00:33:57the mutual interest of all all the
- 00:33:58competitors and so there's a lot of
- 00:34:01regulations out there that I think don't
- 00:34:02make sense except when seen through this
- 00:34:04lens so how do we interpret regulations
- 00:34:07uh I think if they're common in a lot of
- 00:34:09settings the the most parsimonious way
- 00:34:12to think about is well what are these
- 00:34:13regulations trying to achieve exactly
- 00:34:16what are they trying to keep us from
- 00:34:17doing that we would do if they weren't
- 00:34:19there and why is what we would do on our
- 00:34:21own bat here's a nice example from Tom
- 00:34:24shelling he wanted to know why is it
- 00:34:27that hockey players will vote
- 00:34:29unanimously in a secret ballot to
- 00:34:31require helmets yet when they're given
- 00:34:33the choice on their own never wear them
- 00:34:36this experiment's been done many times
- 00:34:39any League that doesn't have a helmet
- 00:34:40rule very quickly no one wears a helmet
- 00:34:43goalies didn't used to wear helmets uh
- 00:34:45if you can imagine uh in in the NHL they
- 00:34:47were horribly disfigured by the time
- 00:34:51they'd been in the league for a few
- 00:34:52years but but basically there's a
- 00:34:54individual competitive Advantage if you
- 00:34:56don't wear helmet you can see and hear
- 00:34:58better maybe you're better able to
- 00:35:00intimidate your opponent and so that's a
- 00:35:02reason for an individual to find it
- 00:35:03attractive to skate without a helmet the
- 00:35:06obvious complication is that if I can
- 00:35:07skate without one so can you then we all
- 00:35:10skate without them and 50% of the teams
- 00:35:12win 50% of the teams lose the same as if
- 00:35:14we all wore helmets so obviously rather
- 00:35:17than all take a greater risk of being
- 00:35:19injured better to have everybody forced
- 00:35:21to wear helmet so it's sort of an
- 00:35:23interesting take on the concept of
- 00:35:24individual liberty nobody would complain
- 00:35:27about a military Arms Control agreement
- 00:35:29that it limits the signatory's ability
- 00:35:32to do what they please that was the
- 00:35:33whole point of
- 00:35:34it well does this regulation violate the
- 00:35:37hockey player's Freedom it doesn't seem
- 00:35:39to me a coherent charge that's what the
- 00:35:41hockey player was trying to do he didn't
- 00:35:43want to be free to skate without a
- 00:35:45helmet because he knew he would have to
- 00:35:46in that
- 00:35:47case there were rules governing duels
- 00:35:50thank heavens we don't have to have duel
- 00:35:52anymore we've got an even stronger Rule
- 00:35:54now it says it's against the law to duel
- 00:35:56you want to duel I would love to but uh
- 00:35:59we can't it's against the law have your
- 00:36:00guy call my guy in the old days if you
- 00:36:03offended somebody he would challenge you
- 00:36:05to a duel you'd have to show up at dawn
- 00:36:07with the weapons specified and there
- 00:36:09were very tight rules about what the
- 00:36:11weapons could look like they could fire
- 00:36:13only a single shot they couldn't have
- 00:36:15spiral scoring on the the barrels the
- 00:36:18whole point of which was to make the the
- 00:36:20bullet come out with a spin and be more
- 00:36:22accurate so it would go like a Bart uh I
- 00:36:25mean a a a Brett far uh pass it would be
- 00:36:28a nice tight trajectory to the Target
- 00:36:31they didn't want that they wanted to
- 00:36:32come out floating and and dancing like a
- 00:36:35knuckleball so they'd miss that was
- 00:36:37their aim in these rules they didn't
- 00:36:39want multiple shot weapons you know
- 00:36:41think about a duel you know you're going
- 00:36:43to take take some Paces turn and fire
- 00:36:45you're both going to go down for sure if
- 00:36:47you have multi-shot weapons one shot
- 00:36:49that was the
- 00:36:50rule limiting investment in performance
- 00:36:53enhancement that's the only sensible
- 00:36:55interpretation of these kinds of rules
- 00:36:58if you're if you're uh thinking about
- 00:37:00when to have your kids start
- 00:37:01kindergarten uh everyone else is
- 00:37:03starting at 6 I'm considering holding my
- 00:37:06boy back till 7 what are the what are
- 00:37:09the benefits and costs well he'll get
- 00:37:10out of school a year later that's no big
- 00:37:12deal but while he's in school he'll be
- 00:37:15bigger stronger smarter more socially
- 00:37:17mature than the the kids he's in class
- 00:37:20with and since school of all places we
- 00:37:22know is graded on the curve he's going
- 00:37:24to be more likely to get into Stanford
- 00:37:25when the time comes if I hold him back
- 00:37:27the rub I hold mine back you hold yours
- 00:37:30back then we've got seven-year-old
- 00:37:32kindergarteners then 8-year-old
- 00:37:34kindergarteners how far does it go
- 00:37:35doesn't go forever you wouldn't see
- 00:37:3640-year-old kindergarteners just like
- 00:37:39you don't see 50,000 PB bull elephant
- 00:37:41seals but they can't regulate that arms
- 00:37:43race we can and we do we say if we don't
- 00:37:47have a a mandatory start date for
- 00:37:49kindergarten we get kids starting
- 00:37:51kindergarten at some Advanced age that
- 00:37:53doesn't serve the social purpose it's
- 00:37:55not a sensible scheme so if your kid
- 00:37:57turn six this year he's got to go to
- 00:37:59kindergarten this year unless you hire a
- 00:38:02bevy of of doctors to claim he's not
- 00:38:05ready I'll show you one last
- 00:38:08example the way we talk to each other is
- 00:38:11influenced by these kinds of context
- 00:38:14effect so if you think about formalism
- 00:38:16in economics you're always better off to
- 00:38:18be the more rigorous of two economists
- 00:38:20if you're looking for a
- 00:38:22job all right I can do rigor you can do
- 00:38:24rigor so you do more rigor than me I'll
- 00:38:27have to that if I want to stay
- 00:38:28competitive and so this is a typical
- 00:38:31paragraph in an economics Journal nobody
- 00:38:33looks forward to taking it home to read
- 00:38:34it uh it it's rational for the
- 00:38:37individual Economist not rational for
- 00:38:40Economist as a group perhaps it's not to
- 00:38:42say formal analysis isn't useful it's
- 00:38:45just what's the optimal level of
- 00:38:48formalism and this is truly the last one
- 00:38:50I'll show you I was in a a seminar uh
- 00:38:54with social scientists and humanists the
- 00:38:56humanists would assign readings as we
- 00:38:59would and be a discussion leader I
- 00:39:00thought wow this will be interesting to
- 00:39:02see what they think there was an article
- 00:39:04by Maria lugones called tactical
- 00:39:07strategies of the street walker I
- 00:39:08couldn't wait to read it but then I got
- 00:39:11into it and this is a typical paragraph
- 00:39:13from it I propose to embrace tactical
- 00:39:16strategies in moving and disruption of
- 00:39:18the dichotomy as crucial to an
- 00:39:19epistemology of resistance Liberation to
- 00:39:23do so is to give uptake to the
- 00:39:24disaggregation of collectivity
- 00:39:26concomitant with social fragmentation
- 00:39:28and to theorize the navigation of its
- 00:39:30perils without giving uptake to its
- 00:39:34logic what what's going on here I have
- 00:39:37no idea what that means uh a friend
- 00:39:40friend of mine uh we we just hired him
- 00:39:42uh from Stanford's uh business school to
- 00:39:45come take a professorship at Cornell I
- 00:39:48told him about this example he said show
- 00:39:50show me that I've taken some Humanities
- 00:39:51courses I'll tell you what it means and
- 00:39:52he read it and he he looked up he read
- 00:39:54it the second time said no he had no
- 00:39:56idea I'm I'm guessing that uh at a time
- 00:40:01when they were writing clear English uh
- 00:40:03which we know was true uh not in the too
- 00:40:06distant past somebody discovered that by
- 00:40:08throwing in an unfamiliar word or phrase
- 00:40:11she could seem more aidite than others
- 00:40:13wow you know here's this word she knows
- 00:40:15it I don't uh and so you you could score
- 00:40:18points by doing that others could easily
- 00:40:19mimic that strategy and so the the level
- 00:40:22of obscure phrases and and locutions
- 00:40:25started to escalate that's where it
- 00:40:27seems to be now I is that the best thing
- 00:40:30for the discipline as a whole I wouldn't
- 00:40:32want them teaching my kids how to write
- 00:40:34I don't think optimal for one is not the
- 00:40:37same as optimal for all there's a very
- 00:40:41clear distinction in many cases all
- 00:40:43right I'll leave leave that slide uh on
- 00:40:46the the board just because it seems to
- 00:40:48be uh one that will be intelligible in
- 00:40:51the
- 00:40:52context I need 70,000 ft cuz he has
- 00:40:5570,000 ft they'll think my business
- 00:40:57isn't doing well if I have 50,000 ft so
- 00:40:59we all need bigger but you know is
- 00:41:02bigger really better uh it's a pain in
- 00:41:04the neck to have 70,000 square feet I'll
- 00:41:07take your questions if you have any
- 00:41:08thanks thanks again uh Ricky for
- 00:41:10inviting me to
- 00:41:12[Applause]
- 00:41:12[Music]
- 00:41:14[Applause]
- 00:41:23come he wants to pass a mic over so I'll
- 00:41:26wait until you the M it's actually um
- 00:41:29picking up on the the discourse thing um
- 00:41:32one of the phenomenon I think is that as
- 00:41:33more and more people become better
- 00:41:34trained as economists they may decide
- 00:41:37you know what I can really explain
- 00:41:39everything through this nice flexible
- 00:41:41language so I won't really think about
- 00:41:43something called ethics anymore because
- 00:41:45it's so squishy and hard to sort of get
- 00:41:47the rigor so I'd just be curious your
- 00:41:49sense of the effect of a more successful
- 00:41:52education on things like how of ethical
- 00:41:55discourse and you know we saw the begin
- 00:41:57of the century the same thing with
- 00:41:58science sort of driving out these things
- 00:42:00I'm just sort of curious your thoughts
- 00:42:01on it yeah uh so the question is uh has
- 00:42:04formalism and economics sort of driven
- 00:42:06out the more humanistic concerns the
- 00:42:08ethical and Humane concerns uh which
- 00:42:11were by the way once an integral part of
- 00:42:13Economics Adam Smith's first book was a
- 00:42:15theory of moral sentiments uh he was a
- 00:42:18moral philosopher by training and uh you
- 00:42:21know the the early economists were very
- 00:42:23much steeped in moral philosophy and
- 00:42:25there's I'm happy to report a Revival
- 00:42:27interest in that subject uh I I
- 00:42:29published a book in 2004 what price the
- 00:42:31moral High Ground uh which is uh an
- 00:42:34attempt to to bring economic analysis to
- 00:42:37bear on uh ethical questions uh and and
- 00:42:41the the economic model is one of the
- 00:42:44main underpinnings of uh one of the main
- 00:42:47branches of ethical Theory modern e
- 00:42:49ethical Theory consequentialism uh it's
- 00:42:52a theory that says the right choice is
- 00:42:54the one that leads to the best
- 00:42:55consequences overall and uh that's
- 00:42:59essentially a cost benefit model of of
- 00:43:01ethical reasoning and it's not a
- 00:43:03self-interest model it's say if if if I
- 00:43:05can take an action that'll cost me 10
- 00:43:08but will benefit the community by by 20
- 00:43:10then I ought to take it it's my ethical
- 00:43:11duty to take it by that Reckoning so so
- 00:43:14yeah economists have have gotten much
- 00:43:15more interested in this and I I think
- 00:43:17the formalism was not a a a good
- 00:43:20development for that part of the
- 00:43:22discipline but you know it's it's
- 00:43:23Reviving now
- 00:43:29uh it's great to have been able to hear
- 00:43:31you speak I've been a big fan of yours
- 00:43:33for a long time I thought the winner
- 00:43:35take all Society was a great book and
- 00:43:38I've been recommending it to people uh
- 00:43:41should I continue to do so or has it
- 00:43:43been superseded by uh your newer
- 00:43:45[Laughter]
- 00:43:48books so what's the natural scarcity
- 00:43:51that would keep you from recommending
- 00:43:53all these you became a professor I know
- 00:43:55you're not self-interested
- 00:43:57yeah so the question is uh should she
- 00:44:00keep recommending winter take all
- 00:44:03Society to her friends or are there
- 00:44:04other newer books that that should be
- 00:44:07recommended in place new books of yours
- 00:44:09the the the falling behind book whose
- 00:44:11cover I flashed up uh briefly is uh a
- 00:44:16sort of a revisiting of issues that I
- 00:44:18talked about in the follow-up book to
- 00:44:21Winter take all soci which was titled
- 00:44:22luxury fever this one's only 125 pages
- 00:44:25long so if if the only reason I would
- 00:44:28recommend only one book to someone is if
- 00:44:29I thought well there's no chance that
- 00:44:31person busy as she is is going to read
- 00:44:33two books uh so recommend the shortest
- 00:44:35one uh and that's that's falling
- 00:44:38behind you don't even need to read the
- 00:44:40whole thing you know it's a it's
- 00:44:42repetitive at 125
- 00:44:46Pages have you done the follow-up study
- 00:44:48with your students of your more focused
- 00:44:51economics Class A year later to see if
- 00:44:53they actually pass the test now so the
- 00:44:56question is have I done done any uh
- 00:44:58thing to investigate whether this new
- 00:45:00approach to teaching the introductory
- 00:45:02course is more effective and it's a
- 00:45:04great question I wish I had some data to
- 00:45:06show you we're working now on test
- 00:45:09questions that would meet uh the
- 00:45:12consensus of the profession that yes if
- 00:45:15they could answer those then we'd all
- 00:45:16agree they they had learned what we
- 00:45:17really care about once we've got those
- 00:45:20then we will start administering them to
- 00:45:21students who've taken the various kinds
- 00:45:23of courses uh I have to say though that
- 00:45:26the the we have to meet here is very low
- 00:45:28you know the there's no measurable value
- 00:45:30added from the course uh economists say
- 00:45:33well if they take the intermediate
- 00:45:34course then they'll they'll recognize
- 00:45:37the concepts more quickly if they've had
- 00:45:38the introductory course well yeah I get
- 00:45:40guess that's probably true but if is
- 00:45:42that enough to say you've added value uh
- 00:45:45most students don't take the
- 00:45:47intermediate course because they took
- 00:45:48the introductory course felt like they
- 00:45:50didn't learn anything and didn't want to
- 00:45:51take the intermediate course so what I
- 00:45:53can tell you is that students come back
- 00:45:55for reunion and they come see me and
- 00:45:57they uh they just want to say uh here's
- 00:46:00some questions I've answered in the
- 00:46:02years since so uh if you read the book I
- 00:46:04think uh send me an email and and let me
- 00:46:07know whether it had an effect on you
- 00:46:09because so many people have said to me
- 00:46:12that it was a transforming experience to
- 00:46:15read the book that they everywhere they
- 00:46:16go now they're seeing patterns and
- 00:46:19trying to explain things uh th this is
- 00:46:21such a fun book for me because I can
- 00:46:23brag about it being so good since really
- 00:46:25it's not so much my book is my students
- 00:46:27book but but it I think the if you if
- 00:46:30you go through enough examples you don't
- 00:46:32need a course you just you just learn to
- 00:46:35see the ideas at work in context and see
- 00:46:38see if it doesn't have that effect on
- 00:46:40you yeah I think it's a it's a fabulous
- 00:46:43way to learn the subject you know you
- 00:46:44you it's not painful it's it's just fun
- 00:46:47to read about these
- 00:46:49examples I just wanted to ask what's
- 00:46:51been the reaction from your colleagues
- 00:46:52you know in other universities have you
- 00:46:54seen other professors uh start teaching
- 00:46:57this
- 00:47:00way the question is have others rushed
- 00:47:02to adopt this wonderful new method of
- 00:47:04instruction uh uh no they haven't rushed
- 00:47:07to adopt it uh I Ben Bernan and I wrote
- 00:47:10a book uh patterned on this VI vision of
- 00:47:13the course and I told the publisher that
- 00:47:16we were going to have to fight for every
- 00:47:17adoption just because it was such a
- 00:47:19different approach to the course and
- 00:47:21nobody wants to start from scratch again
- 00:47:24uh we have fought for every adoption but
- 00:47:26we've seen the book grow sharply it's
- 00:47:29going to be in its fourth edition coming
- 00:47:30up and it's grown very sharply it's the
- 00:47:32only book in the McGraw Hill stable
- 00:47:35that's growing sharply uh in the last
- 00:47:38decade or so and so uh I think uh in
- 00:47:41time we'll we'll see a a Tipping Point
- 00:47:43I'm hoping where everyone said oh yeah
- 00:47:45sure we knew that was the way to do it
- 00:47:46all along but but yeah it's been a b
- 00:47:48it's been an uphill battle but we're
- 00:47:50starting to see some nice results from
- 00:47:52it
- 00:47:58first of all thanks I'll I give my
- 00:47:59daughter who's just struggled through
- 00:48:01her first economics class and struggled
- 00:48:04as I as I said I'll give her the book
- 00:48:06it's just a trivial question really
- 00:48:08about your bull um maybe it's a
- 00:48:11biological question but it seems to me
- 00:48:13that why wouldn't the females benefit
- 00:48:16from those large male genes and they
- 00:48:18themselves grow big just with the males
- 00:48:21are are there really separate Gene you
- 00:48:23know separate DNA for male weight and
- 00:48:25female weight
- 00:48:28the the question is why don't the female
- 00:48:30elephant seals grow big too uh yeah that
- 00:48:33that's a fairly common pattern uh in
- 00:48:36vertebrate species that the females are
- 00:48:38much smaller in fact you can tell how
- 00:48:41polyus a species is by looking at the
- 00:48:44extent of sexual dimorphism so so males
- 00:48:46in human species are a little bigger
- 00:48:48than females it's it's a very small
- 00:48:50degree so that means we we're not
- 00:48:52perfectly monogamous but you know we're
- 00:48:53we're toward that end of the spectrum
- 00:48:55there's just no advantage to a female
- 00:48:57being bigger than her Rivals they don't
- 00:49:00fight for access to males this is just
- 00:49:02the basic reproductive asymmetry males
- 00:49:05can sire indefinitely many offspring
- 00:49:07females have a fixed capacity I let me
- 00:49:10just ask it again but maybe I'm wrong
- 00:49:12but it seems to me that the argument is
- 00:49:15the the genes in the male you know
- 00:49:18produce bigger future males yes but it
- 00:49:22seems that those genes should affect
- 00:49:24both males and females not males
- 00:49:26selectively well in that reasoning all
- 00:49:28male traits ought to appear on females
- 00:49:30and we know that doesn't happen uh there
- 00:49:32there are a lot of traits that are are
- 00:49:34are on the let me see if I get this
- 00:49:35right the Y chromosome that's the the
- 00:49:37male chromosome and so tra traits that
- 00:49:40are beneficial to males but not females
- 00:49:42are typically housed on the Y chromosome
- 00:49:45and uh yeah it's true the the the
- 00:49:48females aren't uh the female elephant
- 00:49:51seals aren't like house cats they're
- 00:49:53they're 12200 lb some of them I mean so
- 00:49:56you don't want you don't want
- 00:49:58huge disparities but uh the the the male
- 00:50:02traits don't have to appear in the
- 00:50:05female while we're talking while we're
- 00:50:08talking about biological bases for
- 00:50:09examples with the wedding example it
- 00:50:12seems a little counterintuitive that the
- 00:50:14woman should want to wear the showest
- 00:50:15clothing possible on the one day when
- 00:50:18she's guaranteed to be associated with a
- 00:50:20single monogamous
- 00:50:25male so how does the theory explain that
- 00:50:28one step further so the question is why
- 00:50:31why would you spend so much to look your
- 00:50:33best on a day when you were going out of
- 00:50:35circulation in the in the dating Market
- 00:50:38basically uh yeah maybe this is one like
- 00:50:40the kamikazi Pilots That's you know
- 00:50:44women just want to look their best on on
- 00:50:46that's what women do it's it's a part of
- 00:50:47female identity uh you don't aband you
- 00:50:50don't abandon your identity so easily in
- 00:50:53in specific circumstances where the cost
- 00:50:55and benefits might not addend upright I
- 00:50:57mean the a student just posed the
- 00:50:58question why do they swab the prisoner's
- 00:51:01arm with alcohol before administering
- 00:51:03the lethal injection you know it's very
- 00:51:05hard to come up with a a cost benefit
- 00:51:07rationale but but it's easy to imagine
- 00:51:10that you know if you're a doctor there
- 00:51:11are just routines you follow uh I mean
- 00:51:14maybe you shouldn't be in you shouldn't
- 00:51:15be there in the first place if you're a
- 00:51:17doctor but but uh the the people who
- 00:51:19administer injections just have routines
- 00:51:22and and that's part of your identity if
- 00:51:23you do that and so that's what you do
- 00:51:26we have time for one more question
- 00:51:28anyone's
- 00:51:35interested uh to what extent are
- 00:51:37economists working with uh psychologists
- 00:51:40maybe I mean you've demonstrated uh
- 00:51:43points where people aren't completely
- 00:51:44rational actors uh what sort of models
- 00:51:46can you make that you know account for
- 00:51:49you know weird kooky Behavior so the
- 00:51:52question is uh to what extent are
- 00:51:54economists working together with Psych
- 00:51:56ologists and that's in fact been the
- 00:51:59growth area in the past two decades in
- 00:52:01economics behavioral economics you've
- 00:52:03you've probably read about examples of
- 00:52:05it uh in the popular
- 00:52:08press Daniel conoman who with Stanford's
- 00:52:11Amos tersi was one of the pioneers of
- 00:52:13the ideas that underly much of
- 00:52:15Behavioral economics was awarded the
- 00:52:17Nobel prize in economics in 2002 uh he's
- 00:52:21a psychologist he's never taken an
- 00:52:22economics
- 00:52:24course uh the kinds of things things
- 00:52:26that uh they've studied are sort of
- 00:52:29judgmental heris uh that's been the main
- 00:52:33thing they focused on rules of thumb
- 00:52:34people use and uh Amos
- 00:52:37ders uh used to say uh my colleagues
- 00:52:40they study artificial intelligence me I
- 00:52:43like to study natural stupidity you know
- 00:52:45I just wanted to sort of focus on those
- 00:52:47situations where you had all the
- 00:52:48relevant information and yet still you
- 00:52:51got the wrong answer so so uh I mean
- 00:52:55everybody feels he's immune from
- 00:52:56advertising messages you just discount
- 00:52:59that that garbage uh they did a nice
- 00:53:01experiment where they wanted you to
- 00:53:03estimate the proportion of United
- 00:53:06Nations members uh or or the proportion
- 00:53:09of countries in Africa that were members
- 00:53:10of the United Nations they asked
- 00:53:12students this question and of course
- 00:53:14nobody in the US would have the foggiest
- 00:53:16idea what the answer to that question
- 00:53:18would be but the interesting Wrinkle in
- 00:53:20their experiment was they had you spin a
- 00:53:22random number wheel before they asked
- 00:53:24you the question so it would stop on a
- 00:53:26integer between Z and
- 00:53:28100 without comment you know just spin
- 00:53:30the wheel and then we're going to give
- 00:53:31you another task then they' ask that
- 00:53:33question they they if you got less than
- 00:53:3625 on the the if you got less than 10 on
- 00:53:39the number wheel the average estimate of
- 00:53:41the fraction of African countries in the
- 00:53:43UN was 25% if you got more than 65 on
- 00:53:47the wheel your estimate was
- 00:53:5045% and you could ask people well what's
- 00:53:53the relationship between the number you
- 00:53:54got on the wheel and the number that are
- 00:53:56in the you in they would say well are
- 00:53:57you kidding no relationship at all of
- 00:53:58course not uh but you see a number and
- 00:54:02that Illustrated their anchoring and
- 00:54:03adjustment uh you you you have to make
- 00:54:06an estimate of something you have to
- 00:54:07start somewhere so you pick an anchor
- 00:54:09and then you adjust so the anchor can be
- 00:54:11the flimsiest thing but you got to start
- 00:54:14somewhere and it has an effect yeah I I
- 00:54:16I liked uh your suggestion you going to
- 00:54:19get the book for your daughter there was
- 00:54:20a guy who reviewed the book on his blog
- 00:54:22and he endorsed the concept very warmly
- 00:54:25and he said that he' been uh telling his
- 00:54:2711-year-old son about examples from the
- 00:54:30book at bedtime he said he can't get his
- 00:54:32kid to go to sleep he just keeps
- 00:54:34demanding another one yeah so I think uh
- 00:54:37an 11-year-old can learn more economics
- 00:54:39than a typical freshman learns in an
- 00:54:41economics course and it's not a lot of
- 00:54:43work so that's the good that's the good
- 00:54:44news of the
- 00:54:46book anyway thank you again uh for the
- 00:54:48invitation you know it's fun to get a
- 00:54:50chance to come out uh and visit with you
- 00:54:52uh I'll I'll hang around and sign books
- 00:54:54and chat with you as long as you want
- 00:54:59[Applause]
- Economics
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