Why 0.008% of the U.S. population might determine the election | About That

00:09:39
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IscC7bedAmM

摘要

TLDRThe video discusses potential shifts in the U.S. presidential election outcomes if a small number of votes were to change in key battleground states. It highlights that if roughly 20,000 voters across Arizona, Wisconsin, and another battleground switched from Biden to Trump, it could result in a 269-269 Electoral College tie, leading to the House of Representatives deciding the presidency. The analysis outlines the importance of seven swing states—each with unique voter concerns—where margins between victory and defeat are slim. Strategies for both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are examined, noting that they each need to secure certain combinations of these swing states to achieve the necessary 270 Electoral College votes. The video also explores the voting patterns and socio-political dynamics in states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia, which are crucial to the election outcome. It underscores the dramatic impact minor voter shifts can have in a closely contested election.

心得

  • 🗳️ Small voter shifts could dramatically change election outcomes.
  • 📊 A 269-269 Electoral College tie leads to a House decision.
  • 🗺️ Pennsylvania is a key battleground with diverse voters.
  • 🤔 Harris must contend with weak support among working-class men in Pennsylvania.
  • 🔄 Trump focuses on Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina for key wins.
  • 📊 Winning three swing states can be enough for an election victory.
  • 🏞️ Arizona's issues include immigration due to its border status.
  • 🌍 Diverse demographics in states influence election strategies.
  • 📈 Winning five of seven swing states secures an Electoral College majority.
  • 🎯 Key battleground tour strategies focus on winning specific voter groups.

时间轴

  • 00:00:00 - 00:09:39

    The narrative describes the significance of voter shifts in certain key states during U.S. elections, focusing on how small changes in voter behavior could drastically alter electoral outcomes. Specifically, switching a small number of votes in Arizona, Wisconsin, and another unspecified state could hypothetically lead to an Electoral College tie, decided by the House of Representatives, potentially resulting in Trump's presidency. The importance of swing states is emphasized, where battles are intense due to slim margins. It outlines strategies for swinging key states and the electoral paths for Trump and Harris, detailing potential combinations that could lead to victory for each. Additionally, the discussion highlights demographic and political factors influencing voting patterns in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Notably, the analysis covers the significance of regional demographics, such as Arab-Americans and Black voters, and the impact of issues like immigration and employment. Overall, the discussion stresses the complexity and strategic elements of targeting swing states to secure election victory.

思维导图

Mind Map

常见问题

  • What happens in a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College?

    The House of Representatives decides who wins the presidency.

  • How many Electoral College votes are needed to win the U.S. presidency?

    270 Electoral College votes are needed to win.

  • What are 'swing states' in the U.S. elections?

    Swing states are states where the margins between winning and losing are very thin, making the election outcome uncertain.

  • Which states were considered key battlegrounds in this analysis?

    The states discussed include Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina.

  • How many voters could shift the Electoral College balance in this scenario?

    Approximately 20,000 voters across three states could change the Electoral College outcome.

  • What does the term 'Republican belt' refer to?

    It refers to a large area in the U.S. where Republican support is solid, giving them a significant number of Electoral College votes.

  • Why is Pennsylvania significant in elections?

    Pennsylvania is often a battleground state due to its large number of Electoral College votes and diverse voter base.

  • What challenges does Kamala Harris face in winning Pennsylvania?

    Harris faces challenges with working-class men and lacks Biden's local connection to the state.

  • How can a candidate win without securing all swing states?

    A candidate can win by securing certain key combinations of swing states that provide enough Electoral College votes.

  • What are the potential voting dynamics in Arizona?

    Arizona is affected by its border status, immigration issues, and Trump's focus on these topics to gain an advantage.

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  • 00:00:35
    BE 5,000 PEOPLE SWITCHED FROM
  • 00:00:37
    BIDEEN TO TRUMP, ALL 16 OF THOSE
  • 00:00:39
    ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES WOULD
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    HAVE GONE TO TRUMP AS WELL.
  • 00:00:42
    THIS GETS CRAZIER.
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    ARIZONA RAZOR THIN MARGINS.
  • 00:00:47
    BIDEN WON BY 4,057 VOTES.
  • 00:00:52
    IF 5,000 OF THOSE PEOPLE CHANGED
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    THEIR MINDS TRUMP WOULD HAVE
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    TAKEN ALL OF ARIZONA'S ELECTORAL
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    COLLEGE VOTES.
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    FINALLY, LOOK AT WISCONSIN.
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    BIDEN WON BY ALMOST 21,00010,342
  • 00:01:06
    BIDEN SUPPORTERS CHANGED THEIR
  • 00:01:07
    VOTES TO TRUMP, WISCONSIN'S TEN
  • 00:01:10
    ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES WOULD
  • 00:01:11
    HAVE GONE TO TRUMP AS WELL.
  • 00:01:12
    SO WHAT'S THE POINT OF THIS
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    MENTAL MAP?
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    IF THOSE ROUGHLY 20,000 PEOPLE
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    ACROSS THREE STATES CHANGE THEIR
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    VOTES, HANDING TRUMP THOSE 37
  • 00:01:24
    ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES,
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    SUDDENLY, WE END UP IN THE
  • 00:01:28
    ABSURD AND ALMOST UNPRECEDENTED
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    OUTCOME OF A PERFECT TIE.
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    269-269.
  • 00:01:36
    WHAT HAPPENS IN THE TIE?
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    THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
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    DECIDES WHO WINS.
  • 00:01:40
    IT GETS A LITTLE COMPLICATED,
  • 00:01:42
    BUT ONE POSSIBLE OUTCOME OF THAT
  • 00:01:44
    VOTE IS THAT DONALD TRUMP
  • 00:01:45
    BECOMES PRESIDENT FOR A SECOND
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    TERM, ALL THANKS TO 21,461
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    VOTERS IN A COUNTRY OF MORE THAN
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    330 MILLION PEOPLE.
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    THAT, MY FRIENDS, IS SWING THE
  • 00:02:01
    MATH.
  • 00:02:01
    AND IT'S WHY DONALD TRUMP AND
  • 00:02:03
    KAMALA HARRIS HAVE SPENT SO MUCH
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    TIME IN THE SEVEN BATTLEGROUND
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    STATES.
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    >> HELLO, PENNSYLVANIA!
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    HOW ARE WE DOING?
  • 00:02:12
    [CHEERING]
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    >> I THANK YOU NORTH CAROLINA.
  • 00:02:15
    >> Andrew: THAT COULD DETERMINE
  • 00:02:17
    THE OUTCOME OF THE ELECTION THIS
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    NOVEMBER.
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    SO LET'S COMPARE HOW POLLSTERS
  • 00:02:25
    PREDICT WHICH STATES WILL BE KEY
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    BATTLEGROUNDS.
  • 00:02:28
    HERE'S A MAP OF THE U.S.
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    MOST OF THESE STATES HAVE CLEAR
  • 00:02:32
    ENOUGH VOTING PATTERNS THAT IT
  • 00:02:33
    WOULD BE A SURPRISE IF THEY
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    STEPPED WILDLY OUT OF LINE, LIKE
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    WITH CALIFORNIA.
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    THE JOKE IS THAT DEMOCRATS COULD
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    RUN A CARDBOARD CUTOUT THERE AND
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    STILL PROBABLY WIN.
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    IN ALL, THEY LIKELY START WITH
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    226 ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES IN
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    THE BAG.
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    THAT'S NOT FAR OFF FROM THE 270
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    NEEDED TO WIN.
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    BUT ON THE OTHER SIDE, A HUGE
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    SWATH THERY, THIS REPUBLICAN
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    BELT IS SOLIDLY RED.
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    THAT GIVES REPUBLICANS 219
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    ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES THAT
  • 00:03:05
    THEY CAN COUNT ON, WHICH LEAVES
  • 00:03:08
    THESE SEVEN STATES WHERE THE
  • 00:03:10
    MARGINS BETWEEN VICTORY AND
  • 00:03:11
    DEFEAT ARE SO, SO THIN.
  • 00:03:14
    IN 2020, LESS THAN 3 PERCENTAGE
  • 00:03:17
    POINTS SEPARATED THE WINNER FROM
  • 00:03:19
    THE LOSER IN EACH CASE.
  • 00:03:20
    AND EACH OUTCOME WAS A MAJOR
  • 00:03:23
    SHOW-STOPPING HEADLINE.
  • 00:03:24
    >> JOE BIDEN, YOUR PROJECTED
  • 00:03:27
    WINNER IN THE STATE OF ARIZONA.
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    >> THE ASSOCIATED PRESS HAS JUST
  • 00:03:31
    CALLED WISCONSIN FOR JOE BIDEN.
  • 00:03:32
    >> JOE BIDEN HAS WON MICHIGAN
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    AND GETS THE 16 ELECTORAL VOTES.
  • 00:03:37
    >> Andrew: AND HERE'S WHERE EACH
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    SIDE CAN GET REALLY STRATEGIC
  • 00:03:41
    BECAUSE YOU DON'T NEED TO WIN
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    ALL SEVEN OR EVEN THE MAJORITY
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    OF SWING STATES IN ORDER TO WIN
  • 00:03:45
    THE ELECTION.
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    EITHER SIDE CAN WIN WITH AS FEW
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    AS THREE OF THESE SWING STATES.
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    IN TRUMP'S INDICATION, THERE'S
  • 00:03:51
    ONLY ONE WAY TO DO THIS, IF HE
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    WINS, NORTH CAROLINA, AND
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    GEORGIA, THE THREE BIGGEST MOST
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    VALUABLE SWING STATES.
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    IF HE DOESN'T WIN EXACTLY THOSE
  • 00:04:01
    THREE STATES, HE'LL NEED AT
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    LEAST FOUR OF THE SWING STATES
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    TO SNATCH BACK THE PRESIDENCY,
  • 00:04:06
    OR ELSE HE'LL NEED TO GENERATE
  • 00:04:08
    ANOTHER SURPRISE ELSEWHERE ON
  • 00:04:09
    THE MAP.
  • 00:04:10
    MEANWHILE, THERE ARE SEVERAL
  • 00:04:12
    COMBINATIONS OF THREE-STATE
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    VICTORIES THAT GIVE HARRIS THE
  • 00:04:16
    WIN.
  • 00:04:16
    BUT THAT'S JUST A MATHEMATICAL
  • 00:04:19
    LOOK AT THE SWING STATES CAP THE
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    VICTORY.
  • 00:04:22
    HERE ARE THE MOST PLAUSIBLE
  • 00:04:23
    PATHS FOR KAMALA HARRIS AND
  • 00:04:25
    DONALD TRUMP.
  • 00:04:25
    >> THE MOST STRAIGHTFORWARD WAY
  • 00:04:27
    FOR HER TO GET ELECTED IS STILL
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    TO CARRY PENNSYLVANIA, MICHIGAN
  • 00:04:32
    AND WISCONSIN AND THE ONE
  • 00:04:34
    CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT IN
  • 00:04:35
    NEBRASKA THAT SOMETIMES VOTES
  • 00:04:38
    FOR DEMOCRATS.
  • 00:04:38
    THAT WOULD PUT HER AT EXACTLY AT
  • 00:04:41
    270.
  • 00:04:41
    >> I THINK HER STRATEGY IS GOING
  • 00:04:44
    TO BE TO TRY TO GAIN THE SUNBELT
  • 00:04:46
    STATES AND STATES LIKE ARIZONA
  • 00:04:47
    AND GEORGIA.
  • 00:04:48
    >> FOR DONALD TRUMP, THEIR PATH
  • 00:04:50
    IS TO HOLD, TRY TO FLIP GEORGIA
  • 00:04:54
    OR ARIZONA, OR NEVADA, AND THEN
  • 00:04:57
    RUN THE TABLE IN THE RUST BELT.
  • 00:04:59
    >> AND RELY ON THOSE WHITE RURAL
  • 00:05:02
    WORKING CLASS VOTERS IN MICHIGAN
  • 00:05:04
    WISCONSIN, AND PENNSYLVANIA.
  • 00:05:06
    >> Andrew: AND WORTH POINTING
  • 00:05:08
    OUT, IF EITHER CANDIDATE WINS
  • 00:05:10
    ANY FIVE OF THE SEVEN SWING
  • 00:05:11
    STATES AND THEY HOLD ONTO EVERY
  • 00:05:13
    OTHER STATE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
  • 00:05:14
    THAT'S ENOUGH.
  • 00:05:15
    THAT GETS EITHER ONE ACROSS THE
  • 00:05:18
    270 ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTE
  • 00:05:19
    FINISH LINE.
  • 00:05:24
    SO EASY, RIGHT?
  • 00:05:25
    YOU JUST HAVE TO WIN SOMEWHERE
  • 00:05:27
    BETWEEN THREE AND FIVE OF THE
  • 00:05:29
    SWING STATES.
  • 00:05:29
    HOLD THE OTHER 20 OR SO STATES
  • 00:05:31
    THAT EVERYONE JUST EXPECTS YOU
  • 00:05:33
    TO HOLD ONTO, AND YOU'RE GOLDEN.
  • 00:05:36
    WELL EACH SWING STATE IS
  • 00:05:38
    DIFFERENT.
  • 00:05:38
    DIFFERENT ISSUES, DIFFERENT
  • 00:05:41
    GEOGRAPHY, DIFFERENT VOTERS.
  • 00:05:42
    PENNSYLVANIA IS A GREAT EXAMPLE
  • 00:05:43
    OF THAT.
  • 00:05:44
    IT'S WHERE HARRIS BEGAN A
  • 00:05:47
    FIVE-DAY BATTLEGROUND TOUR TIM
  • 00:05:49
    WALZ AS HER VICE PRESIDENT.
  • 00:05:51
    >> GOOD EVENING, PHILADELPHIA.
  • 00:05:56
    >> Andrew: JUST ABOUT EVERY
  • 00:05:57
    MAJOR NEWS ORGANIZATION HAS PUT
  • 00:05:59
    PENNSYLVANIA YEAH IN MUST --
  • 00:06:03
    PENNSYLVANIA IN MUST-WINTER
  • 00:06:05
    STORY, THE MOST OF THE STATES.
  • 00:06:08
    WORTH 19 ELECTORAL COLLEGE
  • 00:06:09
    VOTES.
  • 00:06:10
    >> THERE'S GOING TO AN ENORMOUS
  • 00:06:12
    AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY IN
  • 00:06:14
    PENNSYLVANIA.
  • 00:06:15
    WHOEVER WINS PENNSYLVANIA.
  • 00:06:18
    >> A BIG PART OF WHY TRUMP WON
  • 00:06:23
    HE WON PENNSYLVANIA ALONG WITH
  • 00:06:28
    WISCONSIN, THAT HAVE BEEN
  • 00:06:30
    RELIABLY DEMOCRAT.
  • 00:06:34
    KEEP IN MIND, HE'S ALSO FROM
  • 00:06:35
    THERE.
  • 00:06:37
    >> JOSEPH BIDEN, JR. WAS BUILT
  • 00:06:40
    IN SCRANTON,
  • 00:06:41
    SCRANTON, PENNSYLVANIA.
  • 00:06:43
    >> BIDEN DREW OFTEN ON HIS
  • 00:06:45
    PENNSYLVANIA UPBRINGING, BUT
  • 00:06:48
    HARRIS DOESN'T HAVE THAT SAME
  • 00:06:49
    EDGE.
  • 00:06:50
    POLLING SUGGEST SHE'S WEAK WITH
  • 00:06:51
    WORKING CLASS MEN.
  • 00:06:53
    STRIKING THE RIGHT BALANCE,
  • 00:06:54
    WINNING OVER VOTERS IN BIG
  • 00:06:57
    CITIES AND RURAL AREAS ALIKE
  • 00:06:58
    WILL BE KEY IN THE KEYSTONE
  • 00:07:00
    STATE.
  • 00:07:00
    >> IT'S AN UNUSUAL STATE BECAUSE
  • 00:07:02
    IT'S SO LARGE THAT IT HAS
  • 00:07:04
    VARIOUS REGIONS.
  • 00:07:08
    >> SUSTAIN THAT SHOWS A LITTLE
  • 00:07:10
    BIT OF EVERYTHING IN THE UNITED
  • 00:07:11
    STATES AND REFLECTS A LOT OF THE
  • 00:07:13
    SHARP DIVISIONS WE HAVE.
  • 00:07:14
    >> Andrew: IN WISCONSIN, ONCE
  • 00:07:16
    UPON A TIME, THIS WAS SHAPING UP
  • 00:07:18
    TO BE A BATTLE FOR FREE AND
  • 00:07:20
    ASTILL MIGHT BE.
  • 00:07:20
    ROBERT F. KENNEDY, JR. HAD
  • 00:07:22
    FOUGHT TO GET HIS NAME ON THE
  • 00:07:23
    BALLOT IN THIS STATE AND HE
  • 00:07:24
    SUCCEEDED.
  • 00:07:26
    THE PROBLEM IS, HE'S SINCE
  • 00:07:28
    THROWN HIS SUPPORT BEHIND DONALD
  • 00:07:30
    TRUMP.
  • 00:07:30
    THIS IS ONE STATE WHERE HE NOW
  • 00:07:32
    CAN'T SEEM TO GET HIS NAME OFF
  • 00:07:33
    THE BALLOT, WHICH COULD BE
  • 00:07:35
    CONFUSE THES.
  • 00:07:36
    MICHIGAN AND NORTH CAROLINA, HE
  • 00:07:38
    HAS MANAGED TO PULL OUT.
  • 00:07:40
    SPEAKING OF NORTH CAROLINA, IT'S
  • 00:07:42
    THE ONLY SWING STATE THIS TIME
  • 00:07:43
    AROUND THAT TRUMP ACTUALLY WON
  • 00:07:46
    IN 2020.
  • 00:07:46
    SO IT'S A KEYHOLE.
  • 00:07:47
    >> NORTH CAROLINA IS THE ONE
  • 00:07:50
    THAT GETS AWAY FROM DEMOCRATS
  • 00:07:52
    EVERY FOUR YEARS.
  • 00:07:54
    ZROOU BUT THE MARGIN OF VICTORY
  • 00:07:56
    LAST TIME AROUND WAS ONLY ABOUT
  • 00:07:57
    ONE PERCENTAGE POINT, AND
  • 00:07:58
    DEMOCRATS DO HOPE THIS WILL BE
  • 00:08:00
    THE GEORGIA OF 2024, MEANING A
  • 00:08:02
    STATE THAT HAS A DECADES-LONG,
  • 00:08:05
    ALMOST UNINTERRUPTED REPUBLICAN
  • 00:08:07
    HISTORY, BUT THAT COULD BE A
  • 00:08:09
    DRAMATIC AND CONSEQUENTIAL FLIP
  • 00:08:11
    IF OTHER SWING STATES GO TRUMP'S
  • 00:08:13
    WAY.
  • 00:08:14
    >> IF WE WIN THE STATE OF NEVADA
  • 00:08:16
    IT'S OVER FOR THEM.
  • 00:08:18
    >> Andrew: NEVADA HAD A SLUGGISH
  • 00:08:20
    POST-COVID RECOVERY, AND HAS
  • 00:08:22
    AMONG THE WORST UNEMPLOYMENT
  • 00:08:23
    RATES IN THE COUNTRY.
  • 00:08:25
    MICHIGAN HAS THE COUNTRY'S
  • 00:08:26
    LARGEST PROPORTION OF
  • 00:08:27
    ARAB-AMERICANS.
  • 00:08:30
    A DEMGRAPHIC WHOSE SUPPORT OF
  • 00:08:32
    BIDEN TOOK A HIT THE U.S. STOOD
  • 00:08:33
    FASTLY BY ITS ALLY ISRAEL IN THE
  • 00:08:35
    ONGOING WAR IN GAZAA.
  • 00:08:40
    IN GEORGIA, BLACK VOTERS MAKE UP
  • 00:08:42
    A THIRD OF THE VOTING POPULATION
  • 00:08:44
    EASILY THE BIGGEST VOTING BLOC
  • 00:08:47
    IN THE UNITED STATES.
  • 00:08:48
    >> BLACK VOTERS ARE AMONG THE
  • 00:08:49
    MOST LOYAL AND DEMOCRATIC VOTERS
  • 00:08:51
    IN AMERICAN POLITICS.
  • 00:08:52
    A LOT OF THE GROWTH OF THE CITY
  • 00:08:53
    OF ATLANTA HAS BEEN AMONGST
  • 00:08:55
    BLACK VOTERS.
  • 00:08:56
    >> Andrew: AND ARIZONA, THE
  • 00:08:58
    GRAND CANYON STATE, TRUMP HAS A
  • 00:08:59
    BIG ADVANTAGE HERE.
  • 00:09:00
    >> ARIZONA IS A BORDER STATE,
  • 00:09:02
    WHICH MEANS IT WILL FEEL THE
  • 00:09:04
    EFFECTS OF THE RENUMERATION
  • 00:09:06
    FIRSTHAND.
  • 00:09:06
    >> TRUMP HAS REPEATEDLY ATTACKED
  • 00:09:09
    HARRIS OVER THE ILLEGAL
  • 00:09:10
    IMMIGRATION CRISIS, AND HE'S
  • 00:09:11
    VOWED TO CARRY OUT THE LARGEST
  • 00:09:13
    DEPORTATION OPERATION IN
  • 00:09:14
    AMERICAN HISTORY.
  • 00:09:15
    ALL OF THIS ADDS UP TO A VERY
  • 00:09:18
    EKS ELECTIC RANGE OF ISSUES,
  • 00:09:20
    THAT EACH PRESIDENTIAL HOPEFUL
  • 00:09:21
    WILL TRY TO MASTER OVER THE NEXT
  • 00:09:23
    TWO MONTHS.
  • 00:09:24
    THE GOOD NEWS FOR THEM IS THAT
  • 00:09:26
    THEY DON'T NEED TO FIGURE IT ALL
  • 00:09:29
    OUT.
  • 00:09:29
    THEYED THE RIGHT HANDFUL OF
  • 00:09:31
    VOTERS IN THE RIGHT STATES AT
  • 00:09:33
    THE RIGHT TIM
标签
  • Electoral College
  • Swing States
  • U.S. Election
  • Donald Trump
  • Kamala Harris
  • Voting Patterns
  • Battleground States
  • Election Strategy
  • Voter Dynamics
  • Electoral Tie