🚀 OCTA: Things Are Melting Up Quietly 🔥📈

00:29:20
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rlx8-03oUPM

摘要

TLDRThe video discusses the first day of the Bitcoin conference, addressing concerns about quantum computing's potential threat to Bitcoin, which the speaker deems speculative. It highlights the rising US bond yields and the implications for the market, particularly regarding Ethereum's fragile position. The speaker notes Bitcoin's recent performance, including significant outflows from exchanges, indicating increased accumulation by whales. The video also covers the launch of a Bitcoin lending operation by Caner Fitzgerald, which allows users to borrow against their Bitcoin, and the resurgence of privacy coins like Monero and Zcash. Overall, the speaker emphasizes the importance of monitoring market sentiment and upcoming trends in the crypto space, while expressing hope for positive developments at the conference.

心得

  • 📈 Bitcoin conference day one recap shows little new information.
  • 🔒 Quantum computing risks to Bitcoin are speculative and not imminent.
  • 💰 Ethereum's market position is fragile, with many holders close to losses.
  • 🐋 Bitcoin outflows from exchanges indicate whale accumulation.
  • 🏦 Caner Fitzgerald launches Bitcoin lending, allowing users to borrow against their holdings.

时间轴

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    The speaker introduces the Bitcoin conference and hints at a recap of the first day, expressing disappointment in the lack of new information. They discuss the ongoing fear surrounding quantum computing's potential threat to Bitcoin, emphasizing that current quantum technology is not a significant risk and that the Bitcoin community will address these concerns when necessary.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    The speaker highlights the rising interest rates in the US, drawing parallels with Japan's financial situation. They mention the impending maturity of a significant portion of US debt and the implications for long-term treasuries, warning that the current economic climate is concerning and could lead to substantial financial consequences.

  • 00:10:00 - 00:15:00

    The discussion shifts to Ethereum, noting that a large portion of its market cap is precariously positioned just above the cost basis. This fragility could lead to significant losses if prices drop. However, the speaker also notes that the fear and greed index indicates a state of greed in the market, suggesting a potential for profit-taking among investors.

  • 00:15:00 - 00:20:00

    The speaker reports on Bitcoin's recent performance, highlighting significant inflows into Bitcoin and the growing interest from institutional investors. They mention the launch of a Bitcoin lending operation by Caner Fitzgerald, which could further solidify Bitcoin's position in the financial landscape and reduce the need for selling assets.

  • 00:20:00 - 00:29:20

    The final segment covers various developments in the crypto space, including the rise of privacy coins and the integration of MetaMask with Solana. The speaker notes the increasing trend of decentralized exchanges gaining traction over centralized ones, indicating a shift in trading dynamics within the crypto market.

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思维导图

视频问答

  • What is the main concern regarding quantum computing and Bitcoin?

    The concern is that quantum computers could potentially break RSA encryption, posing a risk to Bitcoin, but current quantum technology is not advanced enough to threaten Bitcoin's security.

  • What is the current state of Ethereum's market position?

    Ethereum is in a fragile position, with a large share of its market cap sitting just above the cost basis, making it vulnerable to price drops.

  • What recent trends are observed in Bitcoin's market performance?

    Bitcoin has seen significant outflows from exchanges, indicating increased accumulation by whales, and has performed well in May historically.

  • What is the significance of the Bitcoin lending operation launched by Caner Fitzgerald?

    It allows users to borrow against their Bitcoin without selling it, avoiding capital gains taxes and potentially increasing Bitcoin's scarcity.

  • What are the top performing privacy coins currently?

    Monero and Zcash have seen significant gains, indicating a resurgence in interest in privacy-focused cryptocurrencies.

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  • 00:00:07
    Hello everybody. Thank you for joining.
  • 00:00:09
    It's Octa. It's Tuesday and it's also
  • 00:00:12
    the first day of the Bitcoin conference
  • 00:00:14
    and I'll recap that in one second. Uh
  • 00:00:18
    very unusual, but let's get into the
  • 00:00:19
    story. Thank you, Dirk Diggler and
  • 00:00:22
    everybody from out there. Sean D, TND
  • 00:00:24
    Tesla. This will be an interesting one.
  • 00:00:27
    And this is called meltup and momentum.
  • 00:00:31
    So let's stick myself down in the
  • 00:00:33
    corner. We're going to touch on a whole
  • 00:00:35
    bunch of interesting stuff and have that
  • 00:00:36
    surprise Bitcoin recap. I put that there
  • 00:00:38
    to remind myself to talk about it. And
  • 00:00:41
    the Bitcoin conference day one is about
  • 00:00:44
    as interesting as this disclaimer. In
  • 00:00:46
    fact, I just saw a slide uh from the
  • 00:00:50
    conference. It was very bizarre. It's
  • 00:00:52
    like a Fizer advertisement. Anyhow, if I
  • 00:00:56
    do find any good material from day one,
  • 00:00:59
    I will recap it. I promise you that. But
  • 00:01:02
    so far, nothing new. Let's get into the
  • 00:01:04
    story. And from my Chirona, by the way,
  • 00:01:06
    I love that
  • 00:01:08
    song. It reminds me of my youth. I'm
  • 00:01:10
    dating myself. I wish I'd found your
  • 00:01:12
    channel
  • 00:01:14
    uh and join Patreon sooner, but I am
  • 00:01:16
    better off financially thanks to you and
  • 00:01:18
    your team. Whoa. Awesome. Well, thank
  • 00:01:20
    you for being part of the team. Anyway,
  • 00:01:22
    let's get into the ugly news first of
  • 00:01:23
    all.
  • 00:01:24
    First of all, quantum FUD part 69. This
  • 00:01:29
    just never stops. And I know magazines
  • 00:01:33
    and such like to share fear, but just a
  • 00:01:36
    reminder again everybody, the article's
  • 00:01:40
    claim is about a potential 20fold
  • 00:01:43
    reduction in quantum resources needed to
  • 00:01:45
    break RSA encryption based on Google's
  • 00:01:48
    research. However, remember the
  • 00:01:50
    implication is that Bitcoin itself is at
  • 00:01:53
    imminent risk
  • 00:01:56
    uh in 3 to 5 years. Uh nope. Nope.
  • 00:02:00
    That's both misleading and speculative.
  • 00:02:02
    The current quantum computers are orders
  • 00:02:04
    of magnitude too weak to threaten
  • 00:02:06
    Bitcoin's ECDSA and practical attacks
  • 00:02:09
    are likely decades away, not years,
  • 00:02:12
    everybody. So, don't freak out about
  • 00:02:13
    this stuff. And I'm really getting
  • 00:02:15
    disappointed medium. And uh the Bitcoin
  • 00:02:19
    community, as I said for a long time
  • 00:02:20
    too, they will address those risks when
  • 00:02:23
    the time comes and make sure the
  • 00:02:24
    protocol is quantum proof. But for now,
  • 00:02:27
    ignore these headlines. So other ugly
  • 00:02:31
    news, I did warn you. This is a preview
  • 00:02:35
    of Japan and what it means for the US
  • 00:02:38
    30-year. A lot of people have been
  • 00:02:39
    talking about the long bond long-term
  • 00:02:42
    interest rates and how they are
  • 00:02:43
    skyrocketing. We've seen what happened
  • 00:02:46
    to Japan and the meltup by the way for
  • 00:02:49
    Metaplanet 2 when everybody was
  • 00:02:50
    panicking in Japan. They were FOMOing
  • 00:02:52
    into Metal Planet that has recently come
  • 00:02:55
    down to Earth again. But now a lot of
  • 00:02:58
    people believe this is a sneak preview
  • 00:03:00
    of what's going to happen to the US
  • 00:03:01
    30-year yield
  • 00:03:02
    because nobody wants bonds, everybody.
  • 00:03:06
    Nobody. Nobody. And the only way you can
  • 00:03:08
    sell them is to jack the coupons. Get a
  • 00:03:11
    good return. But again, who would even
  • 00:03:13
    touch a 30-year fiat tool? I mean, 30
  • 00:03:16
    days is risky enough. But anyway, back
  • 00:03:20
    to the news story. Now, I just lost
  • 00:03:23
    myself, too. Uh, there I am. Boom. Okay.
  • 00:03:26
    Uh, juggling. And also, this is actually
  • 00:03:30
    pertinent to that 30-year bond because
  • 00:03:33
    38% of US debt is going to be maturing
  • 00:03:39
    and that means rolling into longerterm
  • 00:03:42
    treasuries, 38%
  • 00:03:45
    uh some people say about $9.2
  • 00:03:48
    trillion, sometimes more depending on
  • 00:03:50
    how you measure it, sometimes less. At
  • 00:03:52
    least it is a lot. It's nearly 10
  • 00:03:54
    trillion. And 5% or 10 trillion is
  • 00:03:57
    massive on top of everything else. That
  • 00:03:59
    is like half a trillion in
  • 00:04:00
    interest. Absolutely crazy. Like you can
  • 00:04:03
    rebuild every school, hospital, medical
  • 00:04:07
    facility, animal shelter in the country
  • 00:04:10
    many times over with that type of
  • 00:04:12
    interest. So something's got to give out
  • 00:04:15
    there. And
  • 00:04:17
    uh it's just ugly. And even to make
  • 00:04:21
    matters worse for Jerome Powell and this
  • 00:04:23
    from Lzanne Saunders. The price index in
  • 00:04:25
    US PMI has
  • 00:04:27
    spiked. This is the index that producers
  • 00:04:31
    actually pay for products. And when that
  • 00:04:34
    goes up eventually the consumer price
  • 00:04:38
    index goes up too. One precedes the
  • 00:04:40
    other. This is the early indicator. When
  • 00:04:42
    PMI goes up, CPI follows normally a
  • 00:04:45
    couple months later. So remember,
  • 00:04:48
    inflation is not controlled by the Fed.
  • 00:04:50
    They can just destroy demand, not
  • 00:04:52
    control inflation.
  • 00:04:54
    Now, final piece of uglies for the day
  • 00:04:58
    is token unlocks and and quite a little
  • 00:05:00
    bit of ugly news, but we've got a lot of
  • 00:05:02
    good news, too. Uh usual, I layer always
  • 00:05:05
    in there, tribal in there, Optimus is in
  • 00:05:07
    there again week after week. Sooie 1.32%
  • 00:05:10
    unlock, dydx 1% unlock, and move 2%
  • 00:05:14
    unlock. I won't dwell on this at all.
  • 00:05:16
    You can pause and have a look here for
  • 00:05:18
    yourself. These are the unlocks coming
  • 00:05:20
    in the next seven days. Now, bad news.
  • 00:05:22
    What a relief to get out of the ugly
  • 00:05:24
    news. I always love this. Start with the
  • 00:05:26
    bad news first and then get to the good
  • 00:05:28
    news. The good news is always fun. Um,
  • 00:05:30
    this is bad news for ETH holders.
  • 00:05:32
    According to our friends at Coin Glass,
  • 00:05:35
    no, Glass Note, sorry.
  • 00:05:37
    They talk about the largest share of ETH
  • 00:05:40
    market cap is about $123 billion worth
  • 00:05:43
    of it just sits right above the 0 to 20%
  • 00:05:48
    uh above cost basis and this cohort
  • 00:05:51
    swelled in the region. uh the price
  • 00:05:54
    level is about 2,300 to 2,500. Meaning
  • 00:05:57
    that if there is a modest price drop in
  • 00:06:01
    Ethereum down to those levels, that
  • 00:06:04
    means a large chunk of the supply will
  • 00:06:06
    fall into a loss. And despite the recent
  • 00:06:09
    gains, Ethereum still is in a fragile
  • 00:06:12
    position. That yellow
  • 00:06:14
    area is highlighted here on the chart a
  • 00:06:17
    large amount at zero cost. So it is
  • 00:06:20
    fragile. Uh normally when people are
  • 00:06:23
    very deep in the money and profit they
  • 00:06:25
    can take profits but sometimes when
  • 00:06:27
    people are very close to being in a
  • 00:06:29
    lossmaking situation they can have stop
  • 00:06:32
    losses there and they can exit their
  • 00:06:34
    positions. That's what uh Glass Note is
  • 00:06:36
    getting at here. Also good news. Woohoo.
  • 00:06:39
    That didn't take long. Fear and greed.
  • 00:06:42
    We are still in that greed zone. Not in
  • 00:06:44
    the red zone which is nice because you
  • 00:06:46
    can see we never spend that much time in
  • 00:06:49
    the red zone. only about 5% of Bitcoin's
  • 00:06:52
    life, crypto's life is in the extreme
  • 00:06:56
    greed zone. And when that happens, it
  • 00:06:58
    tends to be euphoric. And that's when
  • 00:07:00
    you should take some off the table. So,
  • 00:07:01
    we'll monitor this very carefully for
  • 00:07:03
    you. Uh, crypto over the last 7 days
  • 00:07:06
    versus Bitcoin. ETH up 5%. Binance up a
  • 00:07:10
    bit, Suie up a lot, uh, Saul up a bit,
  • 00:07:14
    etc. Um, Cardano down, Doge down, Doge
  • 00:07:18
    down on news that it was actually going
  • 00:07:20
    to move to the SPL Salana standard,
  • 00:07:23
    which I'm wondering will that coincide
  • 00:07:26
    with some of the stuff with X payments.
  • 00:07:28
    I don't think so, but it is coincidental
  • 00:07:30
    none the same
  • 00:07:31
    nonetheless. In dollar terms, you can
  • 00:07:33
    see here Bitcoin just shy of 110,000. In
  • 00:07:38
    fact, it spent most of the day.
  • 00:07:40
    Actually, we're just about to go to
  • 00:07:43
    110,000 again
  • 00:07:45
    on what exchange Bitstamp. Bitstamp is
  • 00:07:48
    sometimes a little bit more expensive
  • 00:07:50
    than others and doesn't refresh as fast.
  • 00:07:52
    So again, call it 110,000. And you can
  • 00:07:55
    see all the other assets pretty much in
  • 00:07:57
    green in dollar terms for the week. This
  • 00:08:00
    is compared to Bitcoin. Very different.
  • 00:08:02
    Bitcoin up 4.12% for the last 7 days.
  • 00:08:06
    And the monthly returns, turn my camera
  • 00:08:08
    off again.
  • 00:08:10
    up 17.3% so far in May. This is good
  • 00:08:14
    news. May historically gains about
  • 00:08:17
    19.7%. But remember March was negative.
  • 00:08:20
    That's normally plus
  • 00:08:22
    10%. Feb was negative 14.6%. It's
  • 00:08:26
    normally plus average
  • 00:08:28
    14.6%. And April only up 14% when
  • 00:08:32
    normally it's up
  • 00:08:34
    35.2%. Now we have the conference
  • 00:08:37
    exactly happening. And normally Bitcoin
  • 00:08:39
    pumps on the conference. There's a lot
  • 00:08:41
    of excitement and then after the
  • 00:08:43
    conference there's a little bit of
  • 00:08:44
    drawback unless something really really
  • 00:08:46
    outstanding happens. But either way May
  • 00:08:49
    has been great. And June is normally
  • 00:08:51
    pretty good too up 7 or 8%. And then
  • 00:08:54
    July 8.3% and then August everybody's
  • 00:08:57
    asleep. Nothing happens. And September
  • 00:08:59
    the worst month of the year for
  • 00:09:02
    Bitcoin. But remember we already had our
  • 00:09:04
    worst month back in Feb. minus 15%
  • 00:09:07
    almost driven by the tariff tantrums and
  • 00:09:11
    other good news as to how things are
  • 00:09:13
    actually getting better out there in the
  • 00:09:15
    Bitcoin sphere. You can see here, excuse
  • 00:09:19
    me, a slight tickle in my throat. Uh
  • 00:09:22
    there have been huge Bitcoin outflows
  • 00:09:25
    from Coinbase. They are the big red
  • 00:09:27
    wicks down, the big candles down. There
  • 00:09:30
    is more and more Bitcoin leaving
  • 00:09:33
    exchanges going into Wales co storage
  • 00:09:37
    which is good. It's hardening the asset
  • 00:09:40
    and not saying supply crunch but
  • 00:09:42
    definitely it's a positive news. Uh
  • 00:09:45
    there was about I think it's 8,000
  • 00:09:48
    Bitcoin left in a day. 8,000 not bad.
  • 00:09:51
    And let's look at fund flows. We had a
  • 00:09:54
    great killer week again. Uh $3.3 billion
  • 00:09:58
    last week, pushing year-to- date flows
  • 00:10:00
    to a record 11 billion. I'm hoping for a
  • 00:10:05
    $40 billion year, but 11 billion is a
  • 00:10:08
    good start. Remember, for two of those
  • 00:10:09
    months, we had a pretty rocky time. A
  • 00:10:13
    lot of people were very frightened,
  • 00:10:15
    including the hedge funds. They were
  • 00:10:16
    terrified and they went short and they
  • 00:10:18
    got wrecked. Anyway, more on that later.
  • 00:10:22
    In terms of asset byasset flows, couple
  • 00:10:24
    of good things here. You can see uh
  • 00:10:26
    Bitcoin obviously leading the pack. 2.9
  • 00:10:29
    billion of flows. You could call it
  • 00:10:30
    three actually. It's pretty close. Um as
  • 00:10:33
    a quarter of the inflows for 2024. And
  • 00:10:36
    some investors viewed the recent price
  • 00:10:38
    gains as a shorting opportunity or a
  • 00:10:41
    hedging opportunity. So when there's a
  • 00:10:43
    big flow into Bitcoin, people like to
  • 00:10:45
    lock in profits. So they buy the short
  • 00:10:47
    Bitcoin fund as well, maybe to hedge. up
  • 00:10:51
    12.7. ETH pulled in 326 million last
  • 00:10:55
    week. That is big for Ethereum. Salana
  • 00:10:59
    pulled in 4.3 million. Suie 2.9 million
  • 00:11:03
    and XRP dumped 37.2 million. Um somehow
  • 00:11:09
    XRP it has had a remarkable flow over
  • 00:11:13
    the last year or so. But uh that is the
  • 00:11:16
    largest outflow of XRP on record.
  • 00:11:19
    Perhaps people now realize the gig's up.
  • 00:11:23
    XRP isn't really a thing, but people
  • 00:11:27
    still cling to dreams. Anyhow, moving
  • 00:11:29
    on. We are still in Bitcoin season at
  • 00:11:31
    20. Bitcoin still is smoking a lot of
  • 00:11:33
    the other assets in the top 50 cryptos.
  • 00:11:37
    And Caner Fitzgerald is Howard Lutnik
  • 00:11:40
    who is the commerce secretary. his firm
  • 00:11:44
    is launching their long promised in fact
  • 00:11:46
    it was the last Bitcoin conference where
  • 00:11:48
    they said they would launch their
  • 00:11:50
    Bitcoin lending operation. Well, they
  • 00:11:53
    just complete their first loan on this.
  • 00:11:56
    It's a $2 billion facility which means
  • 00:11:59
    they can lend out $2 billion worth of
  • 00:12:01
    cheddar against Bitcoin. Remember as
  • 00:12:04
    well Caner Fitz Fitzgerald custody over
  • 00:12:07
    100,000 Bitcoin on behalf of Tether and
  • 00:12:11
    Caner Fitzgerald is behind C which will
  • 00:12:14
    become 21 as well. I get some get
  • 00:12:19
    confused between No. Yeah. Strive asset
  • 00:12:23
    21
  • 00:12:24
    C. It's such a crazy day. Anyway,
  • 00:12:28
    nothing is stopping Wall Street from
  • 00:12:30
    jumping into this whole Bitcoin lending
  • 00:12:32
    and the banks are coming too. All the
  • 00:12:34
    big American banks too and Schwab is
  • 00:12:36
    coming and Fidelity is already there.
  • 00:12:38
    This will be crazy. And you know the
  • 00:12:40
    good thing about
  • 00:12:41
    this when you go to the previous slide,
  • 00:12:44
    what was it? Slide number 17. The thing
  • 00:12:47
    this
  • 00:12:48
    one, can you imagine you can borrow
  • 00:12:51
    against your Bitcoin? The most important
  • 00:12:54
    thing when that happens is you don't
  • 00:12:57
    have to sell it anymore. And when you
  • 00:13:01
    borrow against your Bitcoin, guess what?
  • 00:13:03
    You don't incur any capital gains taxes.
  • 00:13:06
    And you can write off your interest.
  • 00:13:07
    It's like a win-win. It's like a I used
  • 00:13:09
    to call this middle class welfare. So
  • 00:13:12
    enjoy it, ladies and gentlemen. But the
  • 00:13:14
    point is, when you can borrow against
  • 00:13:16
    your Bitcoin, you don't have to sell it.
  • 00:13:17
    That'll make the supply even harder as
  • 00:13:20
    we go forward. nothing but goodness and
  • 00:13:23
    it's kind of like we're seeing all the
  • 00:13:25
    stepping stones here to a very gradual
  • 00:13:28
    meltup
  • 00:13:29
    again. It's going to be huge. Now,
  • 00:13:33
    treasuries are it. I've been saying
  • 00:13:34
    treasuries are it since last year, but
  • 00:13:37
    this chart shows you how much it's
  • 00:13:40
    becoming it. And there was a dip in
  • 00:13:43
    early April, I think, with the tariff
  • 00:13:45
    tantrums. But now the number of Bitcoin
  • 00:13:47
    whales with more than 1,000 Bitcoin has
  • 00:13:50
    resumed its climb. reaching
  • 00:13:53
    1,455 entities even as the price hits
  • 00:13:56
    all new new all-time high. So the whales
  • 00:13:59
    are not dumping. They continue to
  • 00:14:01
    stack. And I believe these whales, these
  • 00:14:04
    thousand Bitcoin plus they're not your
  • 00:14:07
    typical Bitcoin whales. They are new
  • 00:14:09
    treasuries. They are new sovereigns,
  • 00:14:13
    etc. These are the people driving the
  • 00:14:15
    bus right now, not retail investors. So,
  • 00:14:19
    good news for the retail that got in
  • 00:14:20
    early. And speaking of the SPR, TM,
  • 00:14:25
    which stands for T
  • 00:14:28
    Media, I don't say the word because
  • 00:14:30
    people still
  • 00:14:31
    have get triggered by that. So, that's
  • 00:14:34
    why. But they are raising $2.5
  • 00:14:38
    billion and they plan to buy Bitcoin
  • 00:14:41
    with it. So, this is super super
  • 00:14:44
    interesting and yet another treasury.
  • 00:14:47
    But remember, the amount of money that's
  • 00:14:49
    flowing into Bitcoin is insane on these
  • 00:14:51
    treasuries. $2 and half billion dollars
  • 00:14:53
    is substantial compared to what Michael
  • 00:14:55
    Sailor does. Probably not that much, but
  • 00:14:57
    again, more and more treasures are
  • 00:14:59
    coming every single day. And let's talk
  • 00:15:02
    about narratives in crypto. The privacy
  • 00:15:05
    ecosystem is back. That's the top
  • 00:15:08
    performer over the last month, which is
  • 00:15:11
    exciting. And I hear you ask, what is
  • 00:15:13
    privacy? Well, let's have a look at some
  • 00:15:15
    of those names. uh in a second, but I'll
  • 00:15:18
    turn on this one for a sec. This is the
  • 00:15:20
    top 50 performers over the last month.
  • 00:15:23
    Hype absolutely smoking it. Hype up
  • 00:15:29
    117.3%. Making it very popular. Shout
  • 00:15:31
    out to James Wyn who is playing a lot
  • 00:15:34
    with Hyperlid and uh getting people very
  • 00:15:37
    excited by the platform. XMR is there
  • 00:15:40
    too. A Pepe ETH all had extremely good
  • 00:15:44
    past 30 days.
  • 00:15:46
    Uh other names that we know Salana is up
  • 00:15:48
    20% over the last month. Bitcoin
  • 00:15:51
    17.2% Athena 15% despite the tra
  • 00:15:54
    inflation and the Tcoin at the very
  • 00:15:56
    bottom right hand side has not done well
  • 00:15:58
    despite the announcement of the
  • 00:16:01
    Treasury. But again, it doesn't really
  • 00:16:04
    matter. It's just more stackers of
  • 00:16:06
    Bitcoin as we go forward. Now, who are
  • 00:16:09
    the top privacy coins? These are the
  • 00:16:12
    names.
  • 00:16:13
    Got Monero, Zcash, and Dash. But look at
  • 00:16:17
    the returns over the last month. Monero
  • 00:16:19
    up 64%, Zcash
  • 00:16:22
    64%. Not a coincidence. Dash
  • 00:16:25
    12.9%. So, for some reason, privacy
  • 00:16:28
    coins are hot. Maybe there was a lot of
  • 00:16:30
    fear during the previous administration
  • 00:16:32
    that privacy coins would be banned and
  • 00:16:34
    blocked and if you use them, you get
  • 00:16:36
    into trouble with the law. But under the
  • 00:16:38
    new administration, at least in the US,
  • 00:16:40
    people are less afraid. And this is
  • 00:16:42
    probably why these coins are doing so
  • 00:16:43
    well. So for all those that had Monero
  • 00:16:46
    for a long time, it's your day in the
  • 00:16:47
    sun. And Salana is becoming 100x faster.
  • 00:16:51
    I did cover this in Alpenlow. I did a
  • 00:16:54
    dedicated video last week on Alpenlow,
  • 00:16:56
    but Mer is chiming in
  • 00:16:58
    today saying it'll be the biggest change
  • 00:17:00
    to Salana and they wrote a Helas paper
  • 00:17:03
    on it too. how Salon's getting 100x
  • 00:17:05
    faster, more stable, and we'll have much
  • 00:17:08
    more validators because they've reduced
  • 00:17:10
    the cost for a new validator
  • 00:17:12
    dramatically. And yes, it's super
  • 00:17:15
    exciting. And yes, it's coming this
  • 00:17:16
    year. Yet another feather in the cap for
  • 00:17:19
    this platform and other platforms and
  • 00:17:23
    technologies continue to flood over to
  • 00:17:25
    the black hole. Now, MetaMask
  • 00:17:28
    is has launched today on Salana, and
  • 00:17:32
    that's big because a lot of people are
  • 00:17:33
    stuck on the ETH ecosystem with their
  • 00:17:36
    MetaMask wallets. Actually, I wonder. I
  • 00:17:39
    forgot. I still have stuff trapped on a
  • 00:17:41
    MetaMask wallet. I need to figure out if
  • 00:17:43
    this will help me get
  • 00:17:45
    off. Yeah, we'll see. That could be
  • 00:17:48
    interesting. Anyway, it's sitting there
  • 00:17:50
    since 2021. Let's see if we can un
  • 00:17:53
    unlock some stuff because I just
  • 00:17:55
    remember MetaMask was so painful to deal
  • 00:17:57
    with and hopefully now it's a lot
  • 00:17:59
    easier. Anyway, the other big point of
  • 00:18:01
    this is this could enhance the drain
  • 00:18:03
    away from the ETH ecosystem if they have
  • 00:18:06
    the connectivity. So, think of a wallet
  • 00:18:09
    as kind of a gateway drug to get to a
  • 00:18:11
    better, cheaper, faster chain. That
  • 00:18:13
    could also happen too, just like the
  • 00:18:16
    migration we've been seeing to the black
  • 00:18:17
    hole for the last couple of years. And
  • 00:18:21
    one thing, this is on my bingo card list
  • 00:18:23
    for forecast for 2025 that I said DEX's
  • 00:18:28
    would kill centralized exchanges and
  • 00:18:31
    it's happening. And a lot of people
  • 00:18:34
    think hyperlid is killing other dexes in
  • 00:18:38
    crypto. No, it's not. All the pros that
  • 00:18:42
    used to do per trading on centralized
  • 00:18:45
    exchanges have left. they have moved to
  • 00:18:48
    dexes and some of them are moving very
  • 00:18:50
    large volumes like billion dollars in
  • 00:18:54
    collateral etc to fund very very large
  • 00:18:57
    positions but those positions
  • 00:18:59
    traditionally were handled by
  • 00:19:01
    centralized exchanges so I'm so pleased
  • 00:19:04
    to see that this one is coming through
  • 00:19:07
    so far for the year and remember I
  • 00:19:08
    scorecard myself at the end of every
  • 00:19:11
    year before I do my forecast for the
  • 00:19:13
    next year and uh it's good to see this
  • 00:19:15
    one in the bag Now this is another view
  • 00:19:18
    of what's happening with centralized
  • 00:19:19
    exchanges as well. This is the what's
  • 00:19:22
    called the stable coin flow and you can
  • 00:19:25
    see here very quickly centralized
  • 00:19:27
    exchange stable stable coin balances are
  • 00:19:31
    flowing very quickly all of a sudden to
  • 00:19:34
    Salana.
  • 00:19:36
    Not sure why. Maybe for trading purposes
  • 00:19:39
    or maybe stacking purposes. But again,
  • 00:19:42
    the centralized exchanges are losing the
  • 00:19:46
    trading volume for
  • 00:19:47
    per moving to decentralized exchanges
  • 00:19:50
    like Hyperlid and stable coins are
  • 00:19:53
    moving from sanitized exchanges to
  • 00:19:55
    Salana blockchain. Very interesting. And
  • 00:19:58
    this is on top of that other slide I
  • 00:20:01
    showed you with the 8,000 Bitcoin
  • 00:20:03
    leaving Coinbase in one day. I think it
  • 00:20:06
    was slide 17. But other news regarding
  • 00:20:09
    stable coins is CoinDesk confirmed
  • 00:20:11
    Jeremy Aair announces Circle is going
  • 00:20:14
    public with an IPO and uh we know that
  • 00:20:18
    Tether is trying to get on shore as
  • 00:20:20
    well. But why do we care about this?
  • 00:20:23
    Well, this is great because this is the
  • 00:20:25
    number one use case for crypto,
  • 00:20:27
    especially within the eyes of the
  • 00:20:28
    government. And the other thing that I'm
  • 00:20:30
    very relieved of is because apparently
  • 00:20:33
    Coinbase and Ripple were in the game to
  • 00:20:36
    try bid on Circle. I did not want either
  • 00:20:40
    of that happening, especially not
  • 00:20:41
    Ripple. That would not be good for the
  • 00:20:45
    whole crypto space. But this IPO
  • 00:20:47
    announcement does not rule out an
  • 00:20:49
    acquisition, but it definitely suggests
  • 00:20:52
    Circle want to
  • 00:20:54
    IPO. They do not want to sell
  • 00:20:56
    themselves. And reports indicate um that
  • 00:21:00
    Camber would 24 million shares. The
  • 00:21:02
    ticker will be CRCL I think. And
  • 00:21:05
    hopefully they will make about $5
  • 00:21:09
    billion or in reserve or 1.75 $5 billion
  • 00:21:14
    from the IPO when they launch. So watch
  • 00:21:15
    this space carefully and that could
  • 00:21:17
    happen in the next month or so. Also,
  • 00:21:19
    Thailand um Thailand will now let
  • 00:21:22
    tourists spend crypto via credit card
  • 00:21:25
    and plans major financial reforms to
  • 00:21:26
    unify traditional and digital asset
  • 00:21:28
    markets. That's huge. So, a lot of
  • 00:21:31
    crypto people apparently go to Thailand
  • 00:21:35
    uh to live cheap and live off their
  • 00:21:37
    crypto bags and now they can spend their
  • 00:21:40
    crypto to support their lifestyles over
  • 00:21:42
    there too. So, that's great. And this
  • 00:21:44
    just the beginning, just yet another
  • 00:21:46
    domino falling in the cryptoverse, which
  • 00:21:48
    is wonderful. Stocks. Let's talk about
  • 00:21:51
    stocks real quick. Fear and greed 66.
  • 00:21:54
    It's funny cuz a stock and crypto fear
  • 00:21:56
    and greed was almost the same for about
  • 00:21:57
    two weeks, which I'd never seen before.
  • 00:21:59
    Fascinating. And stocks over the last 30
  • 00:22:02
    days. Pretty impressive. Uh you can see
  • 00:22:05
    here, you know, I I I have I am guilty
  • 00:22:07
    sometimes of making a little bit of fun
  • 00:22:10
    of the Apples and Googles, but they have
  • 00:22:12
    not had a good last 30 days, but
  • 00:22:15
    Microsoft definitely did. Up 18 12%,
  • 00:22:18
    Amazon 10%. Shout out to Jeff Bezos is
  • 00:22:21
    apparently getting married. And Nvidia
  • 00:22:25
    27%, Tesla 39% for the last 30 days. But
  • 00:22:30
    let's see what things have done over the
  • 00:22:31
    last 365 days. Again, Google and Apple
  • 00:22:35
    pretty much have gone nowhere for the
  • 00:22:37
    last year. Microsoft up 7%. So
  • 00:22:40
    therefore, in the last 30 days,
  • 00:22:42
    Microsoft went positive over the last
  • 00:22:45
    year. Nvidia up 30%. And remember,
  • 00:22:48
    Nvidia had a bonkers 2023 and 2024. So
  • 00:22:53
    that's big. Amazon 13 1.5%. Tesla
  • 00:22:58
    107.31%. Berkshire Hathaway 24.92%.
  • 00:23:02
    Mastercard 26%. Here are some of the big
  • 00:23:05
    big moves, big players uh over the last
  • 00:23:08
    year that are important to keep an eye
  • 00:23:10
    on. But again, follow the growth and we
  • 00:23:13
    have certain companies now going into
  • 00:23:15
    once again hyperrowth mode. First of
  • 00:23:17
    all, Optimus will be used in factories
  • 00:23:22
    before the end of the year. Shout out to
  • 00:23:24
    Herbert
  • 00:23:25
    Ang and uh he talked about he was
  • 00:23:28
    talking to Scott to Scott Walter I think
  • 00:23:32
    u very very savvy guy that sees things
  • 00:23:35
    that the average cat doesn't but he
  • 00:23:37
    believes humanoid robots the Tesla ones
  • 00:23:40
    will be working in the factory and he
  • 00:23:42
    predicts that they will start working on
  • 00:23:44
    if they're not already on the Tesla
  • 00:23:46
    Model X and S lines because you can see
  • 00:23:49
    the exact part that is a ball joint or a
  • 00:23:53
    Model X. I think I've seen something
  • 00:23:56
    like that under my car, too. But it also
  • 00:23:57
    looks similar to the Cybertruck one as
  • 00:23:59
    well. So, we'll see. But these things
  • 00:24:01
    are coming. Fit Fast and
  • 00:24:03
    Furious. Also, AI is key. Dubai, United
  • 00:24:07
    Arab Emirates have their own little
  • 00:24:09
    Stargate version, and they will offer
  • 00:24:12
    every citizen in Dubai a free chat GBT
  • 00:24:16
    account, which is huge. Also, they're
  • 00:24:18
    buying handover fist tons of Nvidia
  • 00:24:21
    chips and they're going to become an AI
  • 00:24:24
    first country just like Saudi Arabia
  • 00:24:26
    wants to as
  • 00:24:27
    well. AI is here. AI is going to explode
  • 00:24:31
    and these countries are very
  • 00:24:33
    forward-looking and they're investing
  • 00:24:34
    huge amounts of money to be the leaders
  • 00:24:37
    in the future. they want to pivot, you
  • 00:24:39
    know, from oil and energy being what
  • 00:24:42
    they export to AI being what they export
  • 00:24:45
    or being at least leaders in the region.
  • 00:24:47
    And that's a great first step as well.
  • 00:24:50
    Also, speaking of Nvidia is not slowing
  • 00:24:52
    down. A lot of people think their growth
  • 00:24:54
    is over. Uh-uh, it's not. And under the
  • 00:24:57
    new administration, under people like
  • 00:24:58
    David Saxs, they're going to open up new
  • 00:25:01
    ways in which Nvidia can get back to
  • 00:25:04
    selling chips in emerging markets that
  • 00:25:05
    were otherwise blocked, which included
  • 00:25:08
    Middle East and parts of Asia like
  • 00:25:10
    China, etc. So, that's all going to
  • 00:25:12
    really help. And we're talking tens of
  • 00:25:15
    billions of dollars of revenue that were
  • 00:25:17
    carved out under the previous
  • 00:25:19
    administration. And Starlink, one of the
  • 00:25:22
    Elon Musk companies, is coming to India.
  • 00:25:24
    And I'm jealous.
  • 00:25:26
    because they'll be able to get Starlink
  • 00:25:28
    uh for under $10 a month 8840 rupees
  • 00:25:33
    which would be a game changer and again
  • 00:25:35
    bring so much knowledge and internet
  • 00:25:37
    access to a very large country with 1.4
  • 00:25:42
    billion people. So shout out to our
  • 00:25:43
    friends in India as well. And final
  • 00:25:47
    really super bullish chart. Remember
  • 00:25:50
    everything is riskone. Markets are
  • 00:25:52
    flying today. Tesla's up 7%
  • 00:25:57
    $24. What else is moving fast? Um
  • 00:26:00
    Metaplanet back up 17%. Marathon 12%. I
  • 00:26:05
    know Fred is uh speaking at the
  • 00:26:08
    conference again. A good day. Sooie 6%.
  • 00:26:11
    CleanSpark nearly at 10 bucks. What a
  • 00:26:14
    what a trip that's been Nvidia up to 136
  • 00:26:18
    bucks. Saul 178. So things are moving
  • 00:26:22
    on. But remember, all this money is
  • 00:26:24
    still on the sidelines. It's only a
  • 00:26:26
    matter of time before they have to cut
  • 00:26:28
    rates and then people will go risk on
  • 00:26:31
    with this. A staggering $7.24 24
  • 00:26:36
    trillion is going to come looking for a
  • 00:26:39
    new home soon. We just need the rates to
  • 00:26:42
    come down and all this will be deployed.
  • 00:26:44
    But that shows you how much cash there
  • 00:26:47
    is slushing around in the system. I
  • 00:26:48
    mean, if you go back to the year 2000,
  • 00:26:51
    it was less than 1.5 trillion. Now it's
  • 00:26:53
    nearly 7 12 trillion. So all of that
  • 00:26:56
    we'll need to find a home and pump our
  • 00:26:58
    bags. And finally, Germany is winning on
  • 00:27:03
    one chart. Uh, another good piece of
  • 00:27:05
    news from Germany, but Germany overtook
  • 00:27:07
    Japan to be the country with the most
  • 00:27:09
    money and assets invested outside its
  • 00:27:12
    borders. I still don't understand why
  • 00:27:14
    the average German citizen doesn't own
  • 00:27:17
    stocks. They need to fix that. Some own
  • 00:27:19
    crypto, but this ends Japan's 34year
  • 00:27:22
    streak as a top creditor nation. Very
  • 00:27:26
    important. So, Germany, woohoo. And I
  • 00:27:29
    think uh Japan did lose its position as
  • 00:27:33
    the world's largest cred nation for the
  • 00:27:34
    first time in 34 years. And uh Germany
  • 00:27:39
    is back in the catbird seat. So woohoo.
  • 00:27:42
    Let's go. And meme dour. This is kind of
  • 00:27:44
    fun because it does affect the markets.
  • 00:27:48
    But I I saw this on bar chart. It was
  • 00:27:50
    hilarious. Days without changing
  • 00:27:51
    tariffs, zero. Uh but we have to admit
  • 00:27:56
    though the tariffs have been a gift
  • 00:27:59
    because they gave us a beautiful buying
  • 00:28:01
    opportunity earlier this year that we
  • 00:28:03
    are in position for which was good. So
  • 00:28:05
    again you just got to look through all
  • 00:28:07
    the all the nonsense find the signal and
  • 00:28:09
    the noise and execute based on your
  • 00:28:12
    plan. Very important. All these videos
  • 00:28:14
    are turned into substacks. Thank you to
  • 00:28:16
    the team behind me that does that. Great
  • 00:28:18
    job. And don't forget to subscribe. By
  • 00:28:22
    the way, I pen a lot of these substacks
  • 00:28:24
    myself and everything I write myself is
  • 00:28:27
    always for free. So, subscribe anyway
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    for free. It doesn't cost you anything
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    and you get my uh substacks. I do at
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    least one a week just for giggles when I
  • 00:28:35
    feel very passionate about something or
  • 00:28:38
    creative or both. Thank you all for
  • 00:28:40
    coming. Thank you to the mods in the
  • 00:28:41
    chat. I hope you enjoyed the show.
  • 00:28:43
    Again, I normally do a Bitcoin
  • 00:28:45
    conference day one recap, day two recap,
  • 00:28:48
    but nothing happened. I feel like I'm
  • 00:28:51
    repeating last year's show. It's not
  • 00:28:53
    even as good as last year by any
  • 00:28:54
    stretch. So, let's hopefully we'll find
  • 00:28:58
    some nuggets. Hopefully, it's a slow
  • 00:28:59
    start and then a very quick finish.
  • 00:29:01
    Fingers crossed we'll save the best for
  • 00:29:02
    last. Thank you all. Have a good night.
  • 00:29:04
    Bye.
  • 00:29:12
    [Music]
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