'82% Stolen': China Just Did The Unimaginable | Millionaires Flee | Chinese Economy

00:16:48
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQt21h7gHp4

الملخص

TLDR在最新一期的中国更新中，Tony讨论了中国经济的重大挑战，包括房地产市场的崩溃和地方政府的财政危机。他惊讶于频道达到了10万个订阅者，并感谢观众的支持。节目中提到，地方政府因现金短缺而使用未售公寓偿还债务的现象，以及高净值个人因经济不确定性而外流的趋势。同时，地方政府对罚款的依赖加剧了这一问题，导致企业环境的不稳定。

الوجبات الجاهزة

  • 🎉 频道达到了100,000个订阅者！
  • 🏚️ 地方政府使用未售公寓偿还债务。
  • 📉 中国经济面临重大挑战。
  • 💼 高净值个人因经济不确定性流失。
  • 💰 罚款成为地方政府重要收入来源。
  • 🔍 需要结构性改革以稳定经济。
  • 🏢 房地产市场依然处于低迷状态。

الجدول الزمني

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    Tony expresses gratitude for reaching 100,000 subscribers, reflecting on the channel's journey over five years and how it has provided balanced insights into China's socio-economic situation. He discusses the significance of this milestone, allowing him to pursue this work full-time, and announces a special episode planned for early February for further engagement with viewers.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    As China's property market faces a severe crisis, local governments are resorting to bartering unsold apartments to settle debts due to cash shortages. This trend highlights deeper systemic issues with many local governments grappling with significant liabilities and dwindling revenues, leading to underpaid civil servants and cuts in public services amidst depreciating housing values, suggesting a need for long-term strategies in the sector.

  • 00:10:00 - 00:16:48

    A concerning trend of wealthy individuals leaving China due to economic uncertainties and government crackdowns is discussed, emphasizing a significant capital flight as individuals relocate their businesses and assets to more stable environments, such as Singapore. Simultaneously, local governments are seen engaging in extortion tactics, creating a challenging environment for businesses, potentially destabilizing China's economy further.

الخريطة الذهنية

فيديو أسئلة وأجوبة

  • Tony是谁？

    Tony是中国更新节目的主持人，提供关于中国经济、政治和战略的分析。

  • 频道达到多少订阅者？

    频道最近达到了10万个订阅者。

  • 节目的主要内容是什么？

    节目主要讨论中国的房地产危机和高净值人群的流失以及地方政府的财政问题。

  • 为什么地方政府使用未售公寓偿还债务？

    地方政府面临财政危机，现金短缺，因此开始通过未售公寓偿还债务。

  • 高净值个人的流失有什么影响？

    高净值个人的流失增加了资本外逃的趋势，反映出经济不确定性和对私人部门信任的下降。

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التمرير التلقائي:
  • 00:00:00
    happy Monday everybody welcome to
  • 00:00:01
    another episode of China update where I
  • 00:00:03
    provide you with the most up-to-date
  • 00:00:04
    political economic and geostrategic
  • 00:00:07
    analysis on the world's number two
  • 00:00:09
    economy my name is Tony now before we
  • 00:00:11
    begin with today's episode I wanted to
  • 00:00:13
    make a couple of personal statements to
  • 00:00:14
    you all for those who want to go right
  • 00:00:16
    into the updates that's fine you can use
  • 00:00:18
    the chapter feature to skip to that part
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    of the video in yesterday's video I said
  • 00:00:22
    that we may hit 100,000 subscribers this
  • 00:00:24
    week the channel hit 100,000 subscribers
  • 00:00:27
    within 2 and 1 half hours of that video
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    going live now on Saturday's episode I
  • 00:00:32
    express my gratitude to you all to the
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    China update supporters both old and new
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    I won't waste your time by repeating a
  • 00:00:39
    lot of that but I will on this occasion
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    since the channel has passed this uh
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    Milestone just say a few words China
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    update is a onand band I research write
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    film edit upload and manage the Channel
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    all myself this is done every day Monday
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    through Saturday sometimes Monday
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    through Sunday as it has been this last
  • 00:00:59
    week
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    and I've done that every day for 5 years
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    I started the channel because I believed
  • 00:01:06
    that there was a lack of this sort of
  • 00:01:08
    content on YouTube I felt that there was
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    a lot of punditry both very Pro and very
  • 00:01:13
    anti-china but that there was a lack of
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    channels that were really trying to
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    explore what was happening on the ground
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    in China and trying to help people have
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    a real balanced understanding of the
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    situation I believe then I believe now
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    that it was critically important that
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    the world have more informed more sober
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    and more grounded conversations about
  • 00:01:32
    this complex and consequential nation
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    and if I through the channel could even
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    in just a modest way contribute to that
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    then it was worth pursuing it took 2
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    years for the channel to reach 1,000
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    subscribers I was doing videos almost
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    every day for 2 years with only a few
  • 00:01:50
    dozen people watching every episode but
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    at that time I thought it was worth it
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    because if for those few dozen people
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    they got some value and they could
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    better understand this country then it
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    was worth my time to continue with the
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    videos at that time I had absolutely no
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    idea that the channel could get to this
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    size in fact it was beyond my wildest
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    dreams at that time this is all a long
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    way of me saying that hitting this
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    Milestone with 100,000 having so many of
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    you join me with these daily
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    explorations of what is happening in
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    China is quite literally a dream come
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    true because of all your support because
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    of your following of this channel I now
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    this year can move to doing this as my
  • 00:02:31
    full-time job something I also never
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    thought would be possible so I guess
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    once again I just want to express my
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    deepest gratitude and thanks thank you
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    for sticking with the channel thank you
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    for coming along every day as we explore
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    this country together and thank you for
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    giving me the opportunity to share these
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    episodes with you all I look forward to
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    2025 it's an incredibly important year
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    to be following China and I look forward
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    to doing it with you all together there
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    will be a special 100,000 uh subscriber
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    episode at some point probably in early
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    February when I'm back in New Zealand
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    because then I'll have a very strong
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    internet connection and I'm thinking of
  • 00:03:08
    perhaps doing a Q&A and maybe even a
  • 00:03:10
    live stream I will have those details
  • 00:03:12
    released closer to the time I'll let you
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    know how to ask questions if that's what
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    happens and what the details of the live
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    stream will be but for now thank you
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    once again that was a very long
  • 00:03:22
    introduction thank you for sticking with
  • 00:03:24
    it now let's move into today's episode
  • 00:03:26
    as China's property Market as well as
  • 00:03:28
    local governments grapple with your own
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    deepening crisis the former being the
  • 00:03:32
    property crisis the latter being the
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    local fiscal crisis a highly concerning
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    solution has emerged settling debts with
  • 00:03:38
    unsold Apartments strep for cash Chinese
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    developers and now even local
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    governments in some parts of the country
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    are increasingly turning to unfinished
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    or empty housing units to pay off their
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    obligations in some strange warped
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    barter system it is worth stressing this
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    point again there are so many empty
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    Apartments and local governments are so
  • 00:04:01
    cash strapped that local governments in
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    locations across the country especially
  • 00:04:05
    in the poorer regions are now beginning
  • 00:04:07
    to settle debts in unsold Apartments
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    according to us Outlet The Wall Street
  • 00:04:13
    Journal in a piece exploring this
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    published over the weekend in one
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    notable case Shang East Universe guas
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    agreed to take over 260 unfinished
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    apartments in Changi City's French
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    themed residential compound to settle a
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    20 $5 million debt in overdue gas bills
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    the company plans to sell the apartment
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    keeping any surplus proceeds or
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    absorbing losses if sales fall short
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    this approach underscores the severe
  • 00:04:43
    cash shortages faced by local
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    governments and state own entities
  • 00:04:46
    changji City Construction investment
  • 00:04:48
    development the primary data in this
  • 00:04:50
    case reported $1.8 billion in
  • 00:04:53
    liabilities but only had $97 million in
  • 00:04:57
    cash by mid 2024 the trend extends
  • 00:05:00
    Beyond Shang companies such as Mona Lisa
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    group a Guangdong based tile
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    manufacturer and sfly intelligent
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    technology an LED producer have
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    similarly accepted Apartments as payment
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    Mona Lisa accumulated $19 million worth
  • 00:05:17
    of properties while sunfly settled $50
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    million in debt by acquiring 334
  • 00:05:23
    apartments from developers including
  • 00:05:25
    Country Garden even public entities like
  • 00:05:27
    police departments have turned to the
  • 00:05:29
    strategy in quo province which regular
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    viewers will know has long faced what is
  • 00:05:34
    essentially a DEA facto bankruptcy
  • 00:05:35
    situation police departments
  • 00:05:38
    ining andan settled 10 million in debts
  • 00:05:42
    by coordinating apartment purchases
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    through developers China's property
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    Market burdened by an estimated 90
  • 00:05:47
    million empty housing units faces
  • 00:05:49
    mounting challenges local governments
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    once flush with cash from land sales
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    during the property boom now struggle
  • 00:05:55
    with ballooning debts and shrinking
  • 00:05:57
    revenues and as we will see later in
  • 00:05:59
    today's video there are other desperate
  • 00:06:00
    moves they have resorted to as well the
  • 00:06:03
    resulting cash crunch has led to
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    underpaid civil servants Rising labor
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    disputes and cuts to public services
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    like education and Healthcare meanwhile
  • 00:06:13
    housing values continue to depreciate as
  • 00:06:15
    prices in major cities have fallen for
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    17 consecutive months experts warn that
  • 00:06:19
    while using Apartments to settle debts
  • 00:06:21
    offers a temporary fix it reflects
  • 00:06:24
    deeper structural issues in China's
  • 00:06:26
    economy obviously local governments and
  • 00:06:29
    developers will need long-term
  • 00:06:31
    strategies including diversifying
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    revenue streams and boosting Market
  • 00:06:34
    confidence to stabilize the property
  • 00:06:35
    sector for now however quote getting
  • 00:06:38
    half-built Apartments is better than
  • 00:06:41
    getting nothing at all end quote as one
  • 00:06:44
    expert put it now while we're on the
  • 00:06:46
    property sector Bond financing in
  • 00:06:48
    China's real estate sector fell 18.4% in
  • 00:06:51
    2024 compared to the previous year but
  • 00:06:53
    shows potential for Recovery as new
  • 00:06:55
    policies begin to take effect that is
  • 00:06:58
    the optimistic View at least according
  • 00:06:59
    to a report by the China index Academy
  • 00:07:01
    published over the weekend developers
  • 00:07:03
    raised
  • 00:07:05
    56531 billion yen 77.1 billion through
  • 00:07:08
    debt instruments last year although Bond
  • 00:07:11
    financing has been declining since the
  • 00:07:13
    latter half of 2021 year-on-year growth
  • 00:07:15
    resumed each month since September 2024
  • 00:07:18
    aided by a low base effect from the
  • 00:07:20
    previous year the sustainability of the
  • 00:07:22
    recovery however remains uncertain the
  • 00:07:25
    cost of bond financing decreased
  • 00:07:27
    significantly in 2024 driven by interest
  • 00:07:29
    rate Cuts structural changes in
  • 00:07:31
    financing Enterprises and adjustments in
  • 00:07:34
    product offerings despite the reduced
  • 00:07:36
    costs the scale of Bank issuance shrank
  • 00:07:39
    credit Bond issuance fell 18.5% overseas
  • 00:07:42
    bonds plunged
  • 00:07:44
    69.5% and asset-backed securities
  • 00:07:46
    declined
  • 00:07:48
    13.6% looking ahead developers face
  • 00:07:51
    ongoing challenges in 2025 the report
  • 00:07:53
    suggests exploring alternative financing
  • 00:07:55
    channels extending debt maturities and
  • 00:07:58
    refinancing existing obligations to
  • 00:08:00
    stabilize cash flows and navigate Market
  • 00:08:04
    uncertainties next up we have one more
  • 00:08:06
    pretty incredible development to cover
  • 00:08:08
    but before that we have this year's
  • 00:08:09
    first sponsored feature now regular
  • 00:08:11
    viewers know this but I think it is
  • 00:08:13
    worth repeating since there are many new
  • 00:08:15
    viewers to the channel I believe it's
  • 00:08:16
    incredibly important and I've always
  • 00:08:18
    tried to be fully transparent with how
  • 00:08:20
    this channel is financed China update
  • 00:08:23
    typically has one to two sponsored
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    features per month there are two reasons
  • 00:08:27
    for this the first reason is this allows
  • 00:08:29
    the channel to be financially
  • 00:08:30
    sustainable while still ensuring that it
  • 00:08:33
    is primarily supported financially by
  • 00:08:35
    subscribers The other reason is that I
  • 00:08:37
    believe having one or two three minute
  • 00:08:39
    approximately 3 minute financial asset
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    type sponsored features is far less
  • 00:08:45
    invasive viewing experience than say
  • 00:08:47
    having three or four one minute
  • 00:08:49
    sponsored features per week I personally
  • 00:08:51
    select which uh sponsored features I go
  • 00:08:53
    with and I think very carefully about
  • 00:08:55
    what would be of interest to the viewing
  • 00:08:57
    audience sponsored features will always
  • 00:08:59
    be labeled throughout so you know that
  • 00:09:02
    you're watching One rather than regular
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    China update coverage and if you wouldd
  • 00:09:05
    like to know how I work with sponsored
  • 00:09:06
    features including my criteria this is
  • 00:09:08
    in the description below the world is
  • 00:09:10
    going through historic changes as trade
  • 00:09:12
    in the global order fragments and the US
  • 00:09:13
    brings back mining to prepare for a new
  • 00:09:15
    cold war with China this is a time of
  • 00:09:17
    great change but great change also means
  • 00:09:19
    great opportunities for sevy investors
  • 00:09:21
    looking to take advantage of these
  • 00:09:22
    Trends the US is one week away from
  • 00:09:24
    swearing in a president whose stated
  • 00:09:25
    goal is drill baby drill unlocking the
  • 00:09:27
    country's vast riches in February 2021
  • 00:09:30
    right after Joe Biden took office the
  • 00:09:32
    market cap of giant mining
  • 00:09:35
    bfgf the sponsor of today's video was
  • 00:09:37
    around $100 million today giant mining
  • 00:09:41
    has a market cap of $7 million
  • 00:09:43
    plummeting 93% but this is where
  • 00:09:46
    opportunity is on November 15th a major
  • 00:09:48
    bill passed the House of Representatives
  • 00:09:51
    it is called the critical mineral
  • 00:09:52
    consistency act and it will go to the
  • 00:09:55
    Senate next Arizona Congressman Juan the
  • 00:09:58
    sponsor of the legislation explains that
  • 00:09:59
    the goal is to fortify Commodities
  • 00:10:01
    Logistics domestically and includes
  • 00:10:03
    copper electrical steel silicon and
  • 00:10:05
    silicon carbine to the critical minerals
  • 00:10:08
    list copper Development Association CEO
  • 00:10:10
    Adam Estell recently said quote this
  • 00:10:12
    vote highlights Copper's essential role
  • 00:10:14
    empowering America's Energy Future end
  • 00:10:17
    quote the legislation specifically
  • 00:10:18
    ensures copper mine projects are
  • 00:10:20
    eligible for the fast 41 permitting
  • 00:10:22
    process 2 this is where the big
  • 00:10:24
    opportunity for investors is with giant
  • 00:10:26
    mining giant mining BFG FF owns a copper
  • 00:10:30
    project in the world's number one mining
  • 00:10:31
    jurisdiction Nevada in the United States
  • 00:10:33
    in the past four years while the share
  • 00:10:35
    price created 93% management for the
  • 00:10:37
    company's geologists have actually
  • 00:10:39
    expanded the copper deposit and this
  • 00:10:40
    past September giant mining hit their
  • 00:10:43
    best ever drill hole BHP and riotinto
  • 00:10:46
    two of the largest copper producers in
  • 00:10:48
    the world are warning that copper Supply
  • 00:10:50
    cannot possibly meet the further demand
  • 00:10:51
    for artificial intelligence and the
  • 00:10:53
    construction Renaissance in the United
  • 00:10:54
    States copper was on the Rise From Below
  • 00:10:56
    $250 to plus $4 in early 21 in 2025 the
  • 00:11:01
    copper price is above
  • 00:11:02
    $4 meanwhile historic underground mines
  • 00:11:05
    at the majaba hill project which is part
  • 00:11:07
    of giant mining produced copper tin and
  • 00:11:09
    silver from the early 1900s through the
  • 00:11:11
    1950s the infrastructure is ready to go
  • 00:11:14
    now too access roads power supply
  • 00:11:16
    Transportation water supply or stock
  • 00:11:18
    piles in a processing plant with one
  • 00:11:20
    week to go until Donald Trump's
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    inauguration all of these factors lead
  • 00:11:23
    to a significant bullish opinion about
  • 00:11:25
    giant mining 93% below its all-time high
  • 00:11:28
    legislation that puts Copper Top of Mind
  • 00:11:30
    an increasing mining friendly
  • 00:11:32
    Administration and a serious asset in
  • 00:11:34
    Nevada this is a speculative play high
  • 00:11:37
    risk but also a potential very high
  • 00:11:39
    upside as such giant mining is worth
  • 00:11:43
    considering due diligence on for any
  • 00:11:45
    savy investor seeking to take advantage
  • 00:11:47
    of the historic changes we are seeing in
  • 00:11:49
    the world today we remember that all
  • 00:11:51
    investment involves risk this sponsored
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    feature is not individual investment
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    advice always speak to an investment
  • 00:11:58
    professional and do do your own due
  • 00:11:59
    diligence before making any investment
  • 00:12:02
    decision a big thank you to Giant mining
  • 00:12:05
    for sponsoring this episode of China
  • 00:12:08
    update now we return to regular China
  • 00:12:11
    update coverage this week Qatar based Al
  • 00:12:13
    jazer published a piece about one Jane m
  • 00:12:16
    a pseudonym for a 31-year-old wealthy
  • 00:12:18
    owner of an import export business from
  • 00:12:20
    Shanghai to explore the issue of China's
  • 00:12:23
    ongoing millionaire Exodus Over The Last
  • 00:12:25
    5 Years mang had steadily Diversified
  • 00:12:27
    her financial dealings Beyond China Hong
  • 00:12:30
    Kong became her primary business Hub and
  • 00:12:32
    more recently she opened a bank account
  • 00:12:33
    in Singapore relocating much of her
  • 00:12:35
    wealth her rationale is straightforward
  • 00:12:38
    quote China is not in a good place right
  • 00:12:40
    now end quot M's concerns mirror broader
  • 00:12:43
    economic challenges facing China
  • 00:12:45
    sluggish growth a protracted property
  • 00:12:47
    Market slump and high youth unemployment
  • 00:12:49
    exceeding 17% have eroded confidence
  • 00:12:51
    among affluent individuals additionally
  • 00:12:53
    the government's sweeping crackdowns on
  • 00:12:55
    technology finance and private shooing
  • 00:12:57
    Industries coupled with high-profile
  • 00:12:58
    cases like The Disappearance of
  • 00:13:00
    investment bankers have unsettled
  • 00:13:02
    business communities as we will see
  • 00:13:04
    shortly there is another incredibly
  • 00:13:06
    concerning Trend which is also on the
  • 00:13:08
    mind of many millionaires these
  • 00:13:10
    anxieties are driving a growing wave of
  • 00:13:12
    capital flight in 2023 China saw 13,800
  • 00:13:16
    High net worth individuals leave the
  • 00:13:18
    country with projections indicating that
  • 00:13:20
    number could rise to 15,200 by the end
  • 00:13:23
    of 2024 the context this Exodus
  • 00:13:26
    represents a fraction of China's 6.2
  • 00:13:28
    million millionaires but signals a
  • 00:13:30
    potentially troubling Trend Singapore
  • 00:13:32
    with its robust Financial infrastructure
  • 00:13:33
    and proximity to China has emerged as a
  • 00:13:36
    preferred destination for relocating
  • 00:13:37
    assets the city state has seen an influx
  • 00:13:40
    of wealth management offices and luxury
  • 00:13:42
    home purchases by wealthy Chinese M who
  • 00:13:45
    once lived in Singapore sees it as her
  • 00:13:47
    Natural Choice for relocation China
  • 00:13:49
    grapples with economic uncertainties and
  • 00:13:51
    attempts to restore trust in its private
  • 00:13:52
    sector the outflow of capital and talent
  • 00:13:55
    underscores a pressing challenge
  • 00:13:56
    regaining the confidence of its
  • 00:13:58
    wealthiest citizen
  • 00:13:59
    and one thing that isn't helping the
  • 00:14:01
    situation at all is a shocking practice
  • 00:14:03
    we've been following on China update for
  • 00:14:05
    some time now the so-called distant
  • 00:14:07
    water fishing that is a youthemism for
  • 00:14:09
    the practice of local governments in
  • 00:14:10
    poorer regions typically arresting rich
  • 00:14:12
    businessmen from wealthier parts of the
  • 00:14:14
    country essentially to extort fines out
  • 00:14:17
    of them this practice is so prevalent
  • 00:14:19
    now that Beijing has had to step in with
  • 00:14:21
    a nationwide Crackdown last week the
  • 00:14:23
    powerful National development and Reform
  • 00:14:24
    Commission published guidelines
  • 00:14:26
    discussing the quote problems such as
  • 00:14:29
    profit-driven enforcement and distant
  • 00:14:31
    water fishing end quot while the state
  • 00:14:34
    Council issued a quote document on
  • 00:14:37
    Strictly regulating administrative
  • 00:14:39
    inspections on companies aiming to curb
  • 00:14:41
    arbitrary inspections and effectively
  • 00:14:44
    ease the burdens on companies end quote
  • 00:14:47
    the situation is quite serious too as
  • 00:14:50
    Chinese Financial media Outlet tyen
  • 00:14:52
    writes last week quote fines and
  • 00:14:54
    confiscations are a growing source of
  • 00:14:56
    local government revenue jumping from
  • 00:14:58
    100 13 billion yen in 2011 to
  • 00:15:02
    4284 billion yen in 2022 in the first 11
  • 00:15:05
    months of 20124 local government incomes
  • 00:15:09
    from fines and confiscations increased
  • 00:15:11
    almost 12% from the same period a year
  • 00:15:15
    ago debt Laden regions are more
  • 00:15:17
    dependent on this income especially at
  • 00:15:20
    the municipal and County levels where
  • 00:15:23
    fines make up 84% and
  • 00:15:26
    82% of local Revenue respectively with
  • 00:15:29
    public security agencies courts and
  • 00:15:31
    other judicial bodies being the primary
  • 00:15:33
    authorities involved according to the
  • 00:15:36
    study end quote 84 and
  • 00:15:40
    82% now at this point it is worth
  • 00:15:43
    stressing that this is in some
  • 00:15:44
    localities it shows how some poor parts
  • 00:15:47
    of the country are in really D Straits
  • 00:15:49
    but it is worth stressing that this is
  • 00:15:51
    not the case in some of the wealthier
  • 00:15:52
    parts of the country especially the tier
  • 00:15:54
    one cities and tier 2 cities in coastal
  • 00:15:57
    regions still however the is a very
  • 00:15:59
    concerning Trend now let's finish with
  • 00:16:01
    this observation by veteran China
  • 00:16:03
    analyst Bill Bishop quote the central
  • 00:16:05
    government has gotten serious about
  • 00:16:06
    trying to stop these business destroying
  • 00:16:08
    extortions but many local governments
  • 00:16:11
    are desperate for revenue and will go
  • 00:16:13
    where the money is so until the center
  • 00:16:15
    offers better solutions for the local
  • 00:16:17
    government fiscal problems the squeezing
  • 00:16:19
    of business for Revenue will probably
  • 00:16:22
    not go away end
  • 00:16:25
    quote okay that is today's episode of
  • 00:16:28
    China update thank you everybody once
  • 00:16:31
    again for your incredible support up to
  • 00:16:33
    this point I look forward to the year
  • 00:16:36
    ahead uh exploring and trying to
  • 00:16:38
    understand China with you all together
  • 00:16:41
    thank you for watching today's episode
  • 00:16:43
    have a good Monday have a productive
  • 00:16:44
    week and I will see you all tomorrow
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