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in the late 1990s to early 2000s the
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Democratic Republic of Congo was the
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sight of a war that was so devastating
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in its scale and which involved so many
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countries that it was dubbed the Great
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War of Africa or Africa's World War fast
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forward to today with Rwandan backed
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Rebels recently capturing a key congales
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provincial capital last week and
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seemingly with an eye on pushing
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forwards there are fears that the
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conflict could spiral into a wider
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Regional War so in this video we'll
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explain what's going on in the region
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and why things look like they could
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[Music]
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escalate explore which world leaders are
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winning and which are losing every week
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with our podcast the world leader
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leaderboard find it on the tood podcast
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YouTube channel or in your favorite
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podcast app we're going to start with a
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quick recap but for more detail you
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should check out our previous video on
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this from last week which we'll Link in
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the description anyway in late January
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the Rwandan backed M23 Rebel group
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captured the city of GMA the largest
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city and the capital of the drc's north
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kevu Province M23 had already captured
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sades of territory since relaunching its
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rebellion in 2022 but seizing Gomer was
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a strategic and symbolic coup rwanda's
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support for M23 goes beyond just funding
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and equipping them though a recent un
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experts report report said that the
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Rwanda military has de facto control
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over M23 operations and estimated that
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there are upwards of 4,000 actual
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Rwandan soldiers fighting alongside M23
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in the DRC rwanda's longtime president
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Paul kagami has previously denied Rando
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in involvement but also has a bit of a
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history of half denials and semi
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confessions here's a recent example from
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a CNN interview so let me ask this
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directly Mr President today on the 3rd
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of February does one that currently have
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any troops at all in easn DRC I don't
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know you're the commander-in chief yeah
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there are many things I don't know but
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if you want to ask me is there a problem
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in Kongo that concerns
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Rwanda and that Rwanda would do anything
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to protect itself I'd say 100% rwanda's
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stated justification is that it needs to
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protect its own security and the safety
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of ethnic tootsies in the Eastern DRC
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the same justification that saw kagami
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Rwanda invade the DRC twice in the late
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90s following the Rwandan Genocide when
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Hutu extremists killed some 800,000
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primarily Tootsie people in Rwanda
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Rwanda does of course have other
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strategic and economic interests in the
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Eastern DRC though for example M23 is
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control of the mineral Rich area has
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been lucrative for both the rebel group
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and Rwanda with un experts saying that
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M2 23 ensured the Monopoly for the
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export to Rwanda of cotan essential in
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electronic devices as such kagame's
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actions look like simple territorial
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conquest and has been accused of
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employing tactics similar to Russia a
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decade ago in easn Ukraine anyway after
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capturing G M23 Fighters reportedly
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continued to push southwards in the
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direction of another major city bukavu
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on the southern shore of Lake kevu earli
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this week though the rebel alliance that
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includes the M23 declared a unilateral
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ceasefire for humanitarian reasons and
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said that it had no intention of
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capturing bavu or other areas you might
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therefore think that things are
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de-escalating rather than escalating but
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there are reasons to be skeptical about
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this ceasefire for example it was
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roughly a year ago that M23 announced
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that it had no intention of taking GMA
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and we know how that turned out
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therefore the conges Army doesn't buy
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the latest announcement saying M2 3
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calls for ceasefires to reorganize and
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reinforce their ranks a 2023 un experts
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report came to a similar conclusion
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saying that announced withdrawals and
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disengagements appeared to have been
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temporary and tactical aimed mainly at
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buying time now if M23 ceasefire does
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not hold it could draw another country
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into the conflict Burundi Burundi
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actually already has troops in the DRC
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initially to fight burundian
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anti-government Rebel re there but more
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recently to support the congales Army
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against the M23 if M23 and Rwanda push
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down into South kevu Province they'll
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get closer to the DRC Bundi border and
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could result in direct clashes between
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burundian and Rwandan soldiers adding
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the risk of a regional War especially
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given the already tense relationships
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between the Rwandan and burundian
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government as you can see the conflict
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is already an international one
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especially when you consider that the
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congales Army is supported by un
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peacekeeping force a deployment by the
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southern African development community
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and foreign mercenaries in fact nearly
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300 Romanian mercenaries surrendered as
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Goma fell to M23 and Rwanda clashes
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between foreign peacekeepers and M23 or
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Rwandan Fighters have further inflamed
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tensions in the region and on the
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continent 14 South African soldiers were
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killed in the defense of G prompting
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South Africa's president to warn Rwanda
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that further attacks on its troops would
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be considered a declaration of war in
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response rwanda's kagami accused South
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Africa of being part of a belligerent
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Force involved in offensive combat
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operations to help the congales
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government fight against its own people
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meanwhile the congales government has so
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far remained defiant as gar fell the
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congales foreign minister said that the
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Randon backed offensive was a
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declaration of war and congales
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president Felix shisi vowed a vigorous
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and coordinated response our final
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reason why an escalation of the conflict
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is a very real possibility is that this
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M23 Rebellion looks notably different to
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the one that was waged in 2012 2013 that
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was a largely ethnic Tootsie rebellion
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in the East that pushed for the
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integration of its Fighters into the
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congales army however this time round
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it's taken on a more National agenda
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according to International crisis group
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analysis M23 has accumulated resources
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and allies making them attractive
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Partners not only to Armed groups in
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eastern DRC but to others aiming to
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undermine president Chessa ketti last
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year M23 joined the congales river
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Alliance or AFC which sort of acts as a
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political umbrella for the group in fact
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the afc's leader is cor nanger who is
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not a totsie and is in fact a former
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congales electoral commission Chief and
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is an ally turned rival of president
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chisaki after capturing G nanga said
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that his group's eyes were on the
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capital 1,000 mil away saying that we
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want to go to kinasa take power and lead
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the country the international crisis
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group writes that this aligns with
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rando's probable strategy of creating a
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deniable but powerful congales front to
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exact the maximum leverage over the DRC
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and confirm its dominance of North kevu
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Province at a minimum so at this point
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what hope is there for deescalation well
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mediation efforts unsuccessful so far
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are ongoing both the dlc's chisti and
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rwanda's kagame are due to attend a
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regional Summit this weekend but the two
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sides are clearly far apart and it was
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only last week that chisaki pulled out
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of planned Kenyon broker talks at the
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same time perhaps the most powerful
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instrument to end randa's support for
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M23 International sanctions is
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struggling to go from words to action
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M23 is previous rebellion was defeated
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after Randa withdrew its support for the
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group when the International Community
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cut Aid to Rwanda but kagam has
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increasingly positioned himself as a key
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reliable partner of the international
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particularly Western Community whether
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it's promoting Rwanda as a business
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friendly Beacon of stability in Africa
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sending peacekeepers to protect Western
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gas infrastructure in mosam Beak from
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islamist insurgents agreeing to take
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deported Asylum Seekers from the UK or
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signing a minerals agreement with the EU
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since Goma fell there have been the
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beginnings of a push to pressure Rwanda
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the UK warned that Rwanda was
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jeopardizing its Aid Germany canceled a
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meeting with Rwandan officials and
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Belgium is pushing for the EU to suspend
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its minerals agreement but whether any
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of this turns into effective conrete
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action remains to be seen that's not the
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end of the story though with 2025
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already shaping up to be a rather busy
00:08:45
year for news in fact there's so much
00:08:47
going on that we don't even have time to
00:08:49
cover it all just in America there's
00:08:51
everything from the question of whether
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Trump's becoming an imperial president
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to America's wild history of territorial
00:08:58
expansion to question questioning if the
00:08:59
US is actually an oligarchy all of these
00:09:02
things could quickly lead you to saying
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WTF USA which is appropriately the name
00:09:08
of the series which I'm literally
00:09:09
telling you about right now WTF USA
00:09:12
takes a tongue-and-cheek look at the
00:09:14
weirder side of us politics unpacking
00:09:16
what Trump's really up to and why
00:09:19
Trump's kind of weird decisions could
00:09:21
end up being incredibly impactful WTF
00:09:24
USA is released every other Friday only
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