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so it can catch people off guard because
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if people are waiting for the bottom of
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a cycle in
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2026 and it's more of a sloppy sideways
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range and everyone's expecting it to go
00:00:11
lower you can end up having this whole
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mess where you're very bullish but you
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don't own anything it's easy to get
00:00:18
caught up and bitcoin's barely
00:00:20
Consolidated barely and people because
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everybody's hopes and dreams are in this
00:00:25
trade right but also most of us have
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most of our wealth in this trade people
00:00:30
going to be incredibly emotional about
00:00:31
this because if we get through the other
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side and you do the right things and you
00:00:35
don't it up you can make a lot of
00:00:37
money people are going to be incredibly
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emotional about this because if we get
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through the other side and you do the
00:00:44
right things and you don't it up
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you can make a lot of money that is what
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are your picks your portfolio picks for
00:00:49
uh the rest of the year in this market
00:00:52
analysis we have a massive update from R
00:00:55
Paul who is about to share his latest
00:00:57
insights on the current state of the
00:00:59
crypto Market
00:01:00
in a recent interview on the Paul Baron
00:01:02
Network channel R discusses why many
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people might be caught off guard in this
00:01:07
cycle the huge opportunities ahead and
00:01:10
his top portfolio picks for the rest of
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the year if you're new here we hope
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you'll consider subscribing by the end
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of the video yes I think it's a big deal
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for this cycle because when I speak to
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institutions both from the investment
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side or those that want to build on
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blockchain Rails this Clarity is
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desperate needed desperately needed now
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they kind of are moving forwards because
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they know it will be
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pretty liberal now going forwards in how
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we can use this technology but it's
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still not easy enough for corporations
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to do this with ease so look it's a very
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big deal it will bring in much larger
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check sizes from much larger players
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over time so yes for this cycle in terms
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of
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Cycles unless the US government managed
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to pay off all its debt in one go we are
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in this cycle it's been the same
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repeating four-year cycle it's driven by
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the debt refi Finance cycle it's a
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global cycle there is no way around that
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the only thing is will this cycle morph
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it somewhat of course they all do like
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the last cycle peaked really early why
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because the business cycle peaked early
00:02:20
in March 2021 the business cycle and
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liquidity peaked when we go to
00:02:26
2017 liquidity in the business cycle
00:02:28
peaked right at the back end of the year
00:02:30
and then it had a blowoff top 2013 was
00:02:34
similar so last the last time around was
00:02:37
actually the abnormality and there's
00:02:38
always going to be an abnormality so
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what is the one most likely to happen
00:02:42
this time well if the crypto markets and
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liquidity Peak when the business cycle
00:02:48
Peaks and we'll use the ism survey The
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Institute Supply manager survey as our
00:02:53
proxy for that we've only just bottomed
00:02:56
and we're breaking 50 to the upside and
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that's going to take several months or a
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year or so to get there so
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probabilistically speaking it might push
00:03:04
it into
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2026 so that's something we'd have to
00:03:08
get our heads around is actually goes a
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bit longer than we imagined that's what
00:03:12
I'm thinking about this cycle then we
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got to think okay is the downside going
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to be the same because we've got new
00:03:17
players we got ETFs we've got different
00:03:18
stuff people could have put it Bitcoin
00:03:21
in their 401k and I would argue we
00:03:24
probably have less downside bitcoin's
00:03:25
downside has been less each cycle so
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maybe it's down 50 or down 45 this cycle
00:03:32
versus NASDAQ would be down 20 let's say
00:03:35
um that would make sense now a whole
00:03:37
bunch of everything else will go down
00:03:39
99% or 95% but what we all see is the
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majors going down less than previous
00:03:46
Cycles I think that that's my most
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likely outcome and so it can catch
00:03:52
people off guard because if people are
00:03:53
waiting for the bottom of a cycle in
00:03:56
2026 and it's more of a sloppy
00:04:00
sideways range and everyone's expecting
00:04:02
it to go lower you can end up having
00:04:05
this whole mess where you're very
00:04:07
bullish but you don't own anything um so
00:04:10
I think let's see how it plays out but I
00:04:12
think it's going to be it'll always be
00:04:13
different I'm just trying to figure out
00:04:15
where it's going to be different it's
00:04:16
definitely not going to be a short cycle
00:04:18
because we've only just started the
00:04:20
liquidity cycle we've only just started
00:04:22
the business cycle so it won't be short
00:04:24
will it be towards the back end of the
00:04:25
year which would be normal or could it
00:04:27
be back into 2026 and and then what does
00:04:30
26 look like maybe less frantic than the
00:04:33
last cycle which we saw a lot of
00:04:35
collapses and a lot of things going
00:04:37
horribly wrong but you've got to
00:04:38
remember how money works in the economy
00:04:42
right now there's all of these pension
00:04:43
plans and all of these private Equity
00:04:46
Funds and all these VC funds they've had
00:04:48
no exits nothing has gone
00:04:51
public things like stripe still not
00:04:54
public yeah in the crypto land um Circle
00:04:58
still not public Kraken still not public
00:05:01
so that we need to see the capital
00:05:03
markets open we need to see money get
00:05:07
recycled and then money can move through
00:05:09
the system so we have that's one of the
00:05:12
issues so a lot of the crypto-based
00:05:15
Investments is from the crypto Market
00:05:17
that releases as the capsule goes higher
00:05:19
but at the traditional investors there's
00:05:22
still not enough money so we're having
00:05:23
to bring in new capital and that might
00:05:25
might be the Middle East or a couple of
00:05:26
others but we're not getting the
00:05:28
traditional investors fully involved
00:05:30
they just don't have money right now and
00:05:32
that's a function of what what I talk
00:05:33
about when I talk about the business
00:05:34
cycle the business cycle if you think
00:05:36
about it when the business cycle is
00:05:38
expanding it means people have more
00:05:40
earnings whether it's at household
00:05:42
levels or Corporation levels those
00:05:44
profits and earnings get recycled into
00:05:47
Investments and that's what drives a lot
00:05:49
of this so we're we're still at this
00:05:51
point where we don't have everything in
00:05:53
place to have a massive institutional
00:05:56
involvement but we are definitely seeing
00:05:58
signs of it one once we get the
00:06:00
regulatory clarity as well just a basic
00:06:04
guideline it'll accelerate further so I
00:06:07
only see acceleration ahead um but it
00:06:10
just takes time it's easy to get caught
00:06:12
up in and when you step back has
00:06:15
anything really happened I mean
00:06:16
bitcoin's barely Consolidated barely and
00:06:20
people because everybody's hopes and
00:06:22
dreams are in this trade right this is a
00:06:24
I call it the greatest macro opportunity
00:06:26
of all time but also most of us have
00:06:28
most of our wealth in this trade so it
00:06:31
matters so people are G to be incredibly
00:06:33
emotional about this because if we get
00:06:36
through the other side and you do the
00:06:37
right things and you don't it up
00:06:39
you can make a lot of money yep and so
00:06:42
they they think about their future self
00:06:44
and they're terrified of not getting
00:06:46
there I get it it's it's just stick with
00:06:49
the program and just be careful and just
00:06:52
be patient is what are your picks your
00:06:54
portfolio picks for uh the rest of the
00:06:57
year using my don't this up thesis which
00:07:00
is just 80 90% of your portfolio in the
00:07:04
majors yeah you can do what you want
00:07:06
with 10% you will probably lose money
00:07:08
with those I hope you get the 100x or a
00:07:10
THX but you won't so enjoy that just
00:07:14
stick with what you're doing my current
00:07:16
allocation is I'm I'm now more
00:07:19
overweight s than I am salana those are
00:07:22
my two majors uh in I own a very small
00:07:25
amount of Bitcoin that I've always had
00:07:28
um and then I have
00:07:30
eth which is only in high-end art nfts
00:07:33
so I don't own any eth other than art
00:07:36
really my focus bet is s with a little
00:07:39
bit of um of salana now that's flipped
00:07:42
because I was the other way around I was
00:07:44
you know 80% salana and 20% sui and I'm
00:07:48
kind of flipping those around and
00:07:49
looking to move even more towards sui
00:07:52
because I think it outperforms this
00:07:53
cycle the price of Bitcoin dropped
00:07:56
slightly today marking its third day in
00:07:58
a row of of small losses investors are
00:08:02
being cautious because they are unsure
00:08:04
about us trade policies and what the
00:08:08
Federal Reserve will do with interest
00:08:10
rates people are paying close attention
00:08:12
to us trade decisions as president
00:08:15
Donald Trump's Administration has
00:08:17
suggested new tariffs on countries that
00:08:20
tax American
00:08:21
Imports these possible trade tensions
00:08:25
have made investors worried about global
00:08:27
economic growth if the economy slows
00:08:30
down risky assets like Bitcoin could be
00:08:33
affected if you found this explanation
00:08:36
helpful and easy to follow consider
00:08:38
subscribing to our Channel we're here to
00:08:41
provide clear updates track the latest
00:08:44
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00:08:47
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