4 Year Bitcoin Cycles Done? Tariffs, GDP & U.S. Crypto Report TOMORROW.
الملخص
TLDR本次直播讨论了加密货币的四年周期,回顾了比特币的减半事件及其对市场的影响。主持人提到,Charles Hodkinson认为市场已经进入了一个新的周期,而Matt则认为四年周期仍然有效。还讨论了即将到来的Clarity Act及其对市场的潜在影响,以及宏观经济因素如何影响加密市场。
الوجبات الجاهزة
- 📈 四年周期是加密市场的重要特征。
- 🔍 Charles认为市场进入了新的周期。
- 📊 Matt提供数据支持四年周期仍然有效。
- 📜 Clarity Act可能改变加密市场的监管环境。
- 💡 宏观经济因素对加密市场有重要影响。
- 💰 投资者需关注市场的周期性波动。
- 📉 减半事件通常会导致市场波动。
- 🌍 加密货币作为对抗通货膨胀的资产。
- 🤔 零售投资者的信心可能会影响市场表现。
- 🔗 了解不同加密资产的风险和机会。
الجدول الزمني
- 00:00:00 - 00:05:00
在本次直播中,主持人讨论了四年周期的概念,回顾了比特币的历史周期,包括减半、历史高点和市场回调。他提到2024年即将到来的减半,并探讨了这一周期是否仍然有效。
- 00:05:00 - 00:10:00
主持人引用了Charles Hodkinson的观点,认为四年周期已经结束,市场正在进入一个新的周期,称之为“gigachad牛市”,并预测市场总市值将超过10万亿美元。
- 00:10:00 - 00:15:00
接着,主持人表达了对市场未来的看法,强调了理性投资的重要性,并提到即将出台的Clarity Act可能会为加密市场带来更清晰的监管框架。
- 00:15:00 - 00:20:00
主持人讨论了Clarity Act的内容,包括明确的资产分类、消费者保护和促进创新等,认为这将有助于提升投资者信心和市场增长。
- 00:20:00 - 00:25:00
随后,主持人分享了与Matt的讨论,Matt展示了一些数据,表明市场并没有发生根本性的变化,强调了投资时要谨慎,避免“这次不同”的思维。
- 00:25:00 - 00:33:28
最后,主持人提到了一些宏观经济数据和即将发布的报告,强调了宏观经济对市场的影响,并分享了他对一些山寨币的看法,认为虽然没有大规模的山寨币季节,但一些有潜力的山寨币仍然会表现良好。
الخريطة الذهنية
فيديو أسئلة وأجوبة
什么是四年周期?
四年周期是指加密货币市场中,特别是比特币,经历的周期性波动,包括减半、牛市和熊市的循环。
Charles Hodkinson对四年周期的看法是什么?
Charles认为四年周期已经结束,市场进入了一个新的周期,称为“gigachad牛市”。
Matt对四年周期的看法是什么?
Matt认为四年周期仍然有效,并提供了数据支持这一观点。
Clarity Act是什么?
Clarity Act是一个旨在提供清晰的加密货币监管框架的法案,可能会影响市场的监管环境。
宏观经济因素如何影响加密市场?
宏观经济因素,如利率和贸易平衡,可能会影响投资者对加密货币的信心和市场表现。
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- 00:00:01Hello everybody. Welcome to the Tuesday
- 00:00:02live stream. Got a lot of things to go
- 00:00:04over. Let's just jump right into it. So
- 00:00:06just like title and thumbnail suggests,
- 00:00:07we're talking about the four-year
- 00:00:08cycles. Now usually everybody here knows
- 00:00:12that, but just as a re just a quick
- 00:00:14refresher, everything seems to go into
- 00:00:16the four-year cycles. We everything
- 00:00:18starts with a having which lasts or the
- 00:00:21first one 2012. Then then a year after
- 00:00:24that, you get an all-time high and that
- 00:00:25was in 2013. Then you get a massive dip
- 00:00:28and a reset. That'd be 2014 and 15. Then
- 00:00:31it happens again. 2016 we get a a
- 00:00:35havinging. 2017 all-time high. 2018 and
- 00:00:3719 dip and a reset. 2020 we have a
- 00:00:40havinging. 2021 all-time high dip reset.
- 00:00:43And of course here we are in 2024 having
- 00:00:46I think it was April 20th. And now we're
- 00:00:49supposed to hit all-time highs which we
- 00:00:50have done. But the question is is this
- 00:00:53it for these fourear cycles? And this
- 00:00:55was um there's going to be two ways to
- 00:00:57look at this. One is Charles Hodinson
- 00:01:00and he was on with block works and he
- 00:01:02talks about why he believes that is not
- 00:01:04for your cycles are dead and things are
- 00:01:06different now which okay we can go that
- 00:01:08route. And also I'm going to introduce
- 00:01:10you to Matt from Bitcoin Magazine Pro
- 00:01:12where he says that is not true. So just
- 00:01:15listen to this. This again is Charles
- 00:01:16over on Blockworks explaining why he
- 00:01:18believes the four-year cycles are dead
- 00:01:20and really what it comes down to is a
- 00:01:22gigachad cycle. So, just take a listen
- 00:01:24to this.
- 00:01:25And since you've been in the industry,
- 00:01:27the industry has run on these, the
- 00:01:28market cycles have run in these
- 00:01:29four-year cycles, obviously. I'm curious
- 00:01:32if you think the four-year cycle is
- 00:01:34still intact.
- 00:01:36No, it's a different cycle. It's
- 00:01:38something different going on. And I
- 00:01:39don't even think we're close to the peak
- 00:01:41of the bull market. Um, you know, people
- 00:01:43have gotten so pessimistic and cynical
- 00:01:45that they're like, "Oh, the market's
- 00:01:47dead and we, you know, we've we've
- 00:01:49ballooned." It's like, dude, clarity is
- 00:01:51not even passed yet. When clarity gets
- 00:01:53passed, the bag seven are going to enter
- 00:01:55the cryptocurrency space. You're going
- 00:01:57to have stable coins go above two one to
- 00:01:59two trillion in issuance. You're gonna
- 00:02:01have real world assets come in. The the
- 00:02:03total market cap aggregate is going to
- 00:02:04be over 10 trillion. And uh and so I
- 00:02:06call this the gigachad bull run. You
- 00:02:08know, it's like the biggest bull run
- 00:02:10we've ever had. And when Bitcoin starts
- 00:02:12stalling, then the alts will pop. And so
- 00:02:15you're going to see great ratios that
- 00:02:16you know come from this whole thing. And
- 00:02:18uh yeah, it'll die off a little bit, but
- 00:02:20it's it's like every time you have these
- 00:02:22these windows, you you go to new
- 00:02:24all-time highs and then you stay at new
- 00:02:26all-time lows, you know, and so it's no
- 00:02:30longer a four-year cycle because it's
- 00:02:32not retailled anymore. It's more led by
- 00:02:35institutions and it's more led by
- 00:02:37massive investors. But simply put,
- 00:02:39there's just too much going on. The the
- 00:02:41inventories on Bitcoin are too low. You
- 00:02:44got these DATs injecting gargantuan
- 00:02:46amounts of money into the market and
- 00:02:47there's no way not to see a bull run,
- 00:02:50you know, from all.
- 00:02:50When do you think we hit Wait, so what
- 00:02:52what are we at today? Four trillion, I
- 00:02:53think.
- 00:02:54Yeah.
- 00:02:54Yeah, we're at four trillion. When do
- 00:02:56you think we hit 10 trillion?
- 00:02:57Before the end of the cycle and I think
- 00:02:59the cycle will last throughout 2026
- 00:03:02because clarity is going to be the
- 00:03:03catalyst. I think that really
- 00:03:05bootstraps it up. And you know, the only
- 00:03:07reason why we haven't super taken off
- 00:03:08was that there was an irrational
- 00:03:10exuberance when Trump got elected and
- 00:03:12then it didn't immediately pay off and
- 00:03:14so people got a little crazy about it.
- 00:03:15Um, and then you know, the tariffs and
- 00:03:17all the macroeconomic stuff kind of
- 00:03:19shook the market a little bit. But
- 00:03:20people are starting to look at crypto as
- 00:03:21a countericklic
- 00:03:23um as a hedge asset to the collapse of
- 00:03:26the US dollar or uh, you know, to
- 00:03:28inflation or you know, there's such
- 00:03:29thing.
- 00:03:30Great. So all that could be true. And
- 00:03:32I'm not going to sit here and say that
- 00:03:33Charles is totally wrong for one way or
- 00:03:35the other. It just you have to remember
- 00:03:37that I've been this would be my third
- 00:03:40cycle started in 2017. And every time we
- 00:03:43start talking about an extension or
- 00:03:45prolonged cycles, they're always proven
- 00:03:47wrong. And people there's a natural
- 00:03:50exuberance that happens because we know
- 00:03:53that this is the inevitable future. And
- 00:03:55this is for every business that opens
- 00:03:57up. You have this feeling. I've opened
- 00:03:59up many businesses. They feel like this
- 00:04:01is it. This is the one. And it may be
- 00:04:03and it could be. I think of course
- 00:04:05Bitcoin and a specific few altcoins are
- 00:04:08going to do quite well, but I can't tell
- 00:04:10you the time frame. And that's the
- 00:04:12bigger issue. So when we hear about this
- 00:04:15like it's going to keep going forever, I
- 00:04:17just want everybody to step back and
- 00:04:19just remember that we've heard this song
- 00:04:21and dance quite a lot of times. I'd love
- 00:04:23for it to happen. I really would. But
- 00:04:25don't just take everything as gospel.
- 00:04:29use your head. And then there's a couple
- 00:04:31of things. So Charles talked about in
- 00:04:332026 and then he talked about the
- 00:04:35Clarity Act. Now, just so everybody
- 00:04:36knows, the Clarity Act that is
- 00:04:39potentially going to get on Donald
- 00:04:41Trump's desk by the end of August,
- 00:04:44hopefully August 31st. It still has to
- 00:04:46pass the Senate. I think it went to the
- 00:04:48House already. And it really goes
- 00:04:49through six different things. And some
- 00:04:51of these things could be awesome. Clear
- 00:04:53regulatory framework. This is what I've
- 00:04:55been talking about forever. I know
- 00:04:57people didn't think this was very
- 00:04:58popular back when I said it in 2022, but
- 00:05:01I this is what we need distinct roles
- 00:05:04for the SEC and the CFTC reduce
- 00:05:06regulatory ambiguity and just say okay
- 00:05:08this is a currency this is a crypto this
- 00:05:12is a security this is and so on and this
- 00:05:15is a commodity this has to happen and
- 00:05:18that's great if uh when the clarity act
- 00:05:21goes through I think it'll streamline a
- 00:05:22lot of things great define asset
- 00:05:24classification like we just talked about
- 00:05:26encourage innovation Sure. Consumer
- 00:05:27protection. This would be really big for
- 00:05:30uh Elizabeth Warren. She could finally
- 00:05:31get something she wants. Enhances
- 00:05:33investor confidence with clear
- 00:05:34disclosure standards and protections
- 00:05:36against fraud. Gary Gendzer would be
- 00:05:39super happy. And US competitiveness
- 00:05:42position the US as a leader and
- 00:05:43institutional participation.
- 00:05:45Encourages banks and funds to engage in
- 00:05:47crypto activities like custody and
- 00:05:49lending boosting market growth. This is
- 00:05:51already happening right now. The
- 00:05:54different heads of different
- 00:05:55organizations. I think it was the the
- 00:05:56SEC actually came out and said, "Look,
- 00:05:58if you're a bank, we want you to custody
- 00:05:59these these types of digital assets. The
- 00:06:02banks just are slowly getting into it.
- 00:06:03They're coming around, but it's going to
- 00:06:05take some time, and I think this might
- 00:06:06be the big thing now. Again, is this the
- 00:06:09end all beall? No, it's not. There's a
- 00:06:13lot of things that have to happen for us
- 00:06:14to really get going." And what changed
- 00:06:17my not changed my mind, but what really
- 00:06:20validated this, I sat down with Matt.
- 00:06:22He's the lead analyst for Bitcoin
- 00:06:24Magazine Pro. I'm not going to play this
- 00:06:25video. It's about 22 minutes in length.
- 00:06:28I will play this on Saturday. And the
- 00:06:30data that he shows me is like look uh
- 00:06:34the most dangerous aspect in investing
- 00:06:36is this time it's different. And he
- 00:06:38goes, I'm going to show you seven charts
- 00:06:39which pretty much says it's not
- 00:06:41different. I will release that on
- 00:06:43Saturday and I can just tell you from
- 00:06:45here
- 00:06:47MVRVZ score, realized cap to ratio, well
- 00:06:50shorting, all these things. It did make
- 00:06:52a lot of sense. Now, could this could we
- 00:06:54all be wrong? Sure. But I just want to
- 00:06:57preface that I would love for this to
- 00:06:59happen. I would love for 2026 we get to
- 00:07:01$200,000 and we go into the end of 2026
- 00:07:05and just keep going and going and going
- 00:07:06with with small pullbacks, which is what
- 00:07:10uh Michael Sailor talks about. Do I
- 00:07:12think it's going to happen? Don't know.
- 00:07:14I sure hope it does. And we'll see what
- 00:07:15happens. Let me know what you think
- 00:07:16about that in the comments section. And
- 00:07:18then as a reminder, what really drives
- 00:07:20everything is macro. And this is a
- 00:07:23pretty big week. First of all, uh well,
- 00:07:25today we got a couple of interesting
- 00:07:27pieces. Uh advanced US trade balance and
- 00:07:30goods, not goods and services, just
- 00:07:32goods. The trade balance was 96 billion
- 00:07:36last month and that is of course because
- 00:07:39a lot of the businesses were trying to
- 00:07:41import as much as possible because they
- 00:07:42didn't know what the heck was going on
- 00:07:43with President Trump and tariffs. Pretty
- 00:07:45smart move actually. And now we're at 86
- 00:07:47billion in the positive. And if we take
- 00:07:49a look here, this is usually it is
- 00:07:52negative as far as like balance of
- 00:07:55trade. We can see that America sure
- 00:07:57loves to uh not so much export but
- 00:08:00import a a ton usually around 40
- 00:08:02billion. And then of course uh March and
- 00:08:05April we weren't uh we're a little bit
- 00:08:07on the other side even more so because
- 00:08:09of tariffs and we actually got a big
- 00:08:11news yesterday uh with the EU and
- 00:08:14actually two days ago the EU came in and
- 00:08:16said hey we're going to we're making a
- 00:08:18deal and we covered that a couple days
- 00:08:19ago. We'll see how it goes. Also you can
- 00:08:21see that uh GDP is going to come in
- 00:08:24tomorrow 8:30 in the morning and uh last
- 00:08:27time was negative0.5%
- 00:08:29again because of tariffs people
- 00:08:31importing and not much export exporting
- 00:08:34goods and services uh we expect 2.3% and
- 00:08:38we'll see what it is if GDP is above 2.3
- 00:08:40I believe the markets will do extremely
- 00:08:42well pending home sales and then also
- 00:08:45the big one uh FOMC interest rate
- 00:08:48decision and just to preface this with
- 00:08:51GDP. Usually, we're doing pretty good.
- 00:08:53Little negative here, but tomorrow for
- 00:08:56Jerome Powell to come out, it's a 97.4%
- 00:08:59chance he's not cutting rates. So, we'll
- 00:09:02see what happens. But again, the macro
- 00:09:04has to follow or the macro has to happen
- 00:09:07first. The markets will follow even
- 00:09:09though the S&P 500 is doing pretty
- 00:09:10amazing. So, let me know what you think
- 00:09:12about that. And of course, the comments
- 00:09:14section. Also, one more piece of good
- 00:09:17news, or actually two, is that tomorrow
- 00:09:19we're going to get uh the US crypto
- 00:09:22stockpile report. It's going to tell us
- 00:09:25uh, of course, the government digital
- 00:09:27asset holdings, Bitcoin, and a couple of
- 00:09:28alts. They're going to list cryptos as
- 00:09:31uh which they've gotten for legal
- 00:09:33seizures, which I got to tell you, the
- 00:09:35Department of Justice has kind of messed
- 00:09:36that up. I think there's a little bit of
- 00:09:37of hiding of sp certain cryptos that
- 00:09:40doesn't make sense. So, hopefully
- 00:09:41they're all there on the balance sheet
- 00:09:42next tomorrow. And then also uh banking
- 00:09:46access reforms, but that's I think
- 00:09:47that's more for the Clarity Act, but
- 00:09:49that'll come in uh tomorrow. So, we'll
- 00:09:51see just how much they're going to be
- 00:09:53putting on the balance sheet of the
- 00:09:54United States government as far as
- 00:09:55digital assets. And then also, there's
- 00:09:59one thing that that can't fail you. One
- 00:10:01is the Costco hot dog being a$150. And
- 00:10:04the second one is Michael Sailor is
- 00:10:05going to keep buying the tops. This just
- 00:10:07happened two hours ago. They bought
- 00:10:0821,000 Bitcoin for$2 and a half billion
- 00:10:11dollars at 117,000 per Bitcoin,
- 00:10:15achieved Bitcoin yield. Wow. 25% as of
- 00:10:18July 29th. We total they almost have
- 00:10:22threequarters of a million Bitcoin. And
- 00:10:24you know, at some point they're going to
- 00:10:25hold a million plus. That's a lot. Some
- 00:10:28people say that's a dangerous thing. I'd
- 00:10:30rather have Michael Sailor and uh his
- 00:10:34company hold it than the US government.
- 00:10:36That's just me. So, good things are
- 00:10:38happening. We'll see how it all turns
- 00:10:39out. And then lastly, lastly, I just
- 00:10:41want to give some updates on a couple of
- 00:10:43alts. World Mobile, I uh just set myself
- 00:10:47up
- 00:10:49with uh mobile service with them
- 00:10:53on my uh iPhone. Actually, what I did
- 00:10:56was I bought uh I have two iPhones now,
- 00:10:59these two. And one has the world mobile
- 00:11:04uh cellular service and I'm going to be
- 00:11:06reviewing that the next uh month or so
- 00:11:08and see how it all works out. So far,
- 00:11:10it's pretty good. I mean, I've got
- 00:11:11service pretty much everywhere. Uh
- 00:11:14everything's fast as far as data and uh
- 00:11:16everything works on the phone so far.
- 00:11:18So, when we talk about, you know,
- 00:11:20utility and things that are actually
- 00:11:22being used, here's your answer. So,
- 00:11:24World Mobile, we'll see how it goes. It
- 00:11:26looks pretty good so far. And if you
- 00:11:28want to know like what the difference is
- 00:11:29between like World Mobile and say like
- 00:11:30Helium, it's
- 00:11:33Well, price is one thing, that's for
- 00:11:35sure. But as far as like as a mobile
- 00:11:38network operator, as far as World
- 00:11:40Mobile, um
- 00:11:43the ownership for World Mobile is they
- 00:11:46own and operate its own infrastructure.
- 00:11:48And an MVNO, which is Helium, they don't
- 00:11:50own it. They pretty much piggyback off
- 00:11:51T-Mobile, which is fine. Just depends on
- 00:11:53what you want. Service delivery, it's
- 00:11:56directly to people like me and then they
- 00:11:58resell and with Helium mobile, they
- 00:12:00resell under their own brand.
- 00:12:02Investment, World Mobile has their own
- 00:12:04infrastructure. That's why they heavily
- 00:12:06invested. And Helium mobile, uh, they
- 00:12:08did minimal investment because they're
- 00:12:09peggy backing off T-Mobile. Nothing
- 00:12:11wrong with that. Just how it is. Control
- 00:12:13over the network. Mobile network or
- 00:12:14World Mobile has full control. Helium
- 00:12:17has limited. So, we'll see how it goes.
- 00:12:19So, that's that part for altcoins. Then
- 00:12:21last last was a good question which I
- 00:12:23didn't answer yesterday. I apologize
- 00:12:25which was on. Yeah, that's how you
- 00:12:28pronounce it. Sui
- 00:12:30and I talked about this yesterday on
- 00:12:33tokconomist tokconomist.ai
- 00:12:37and there was a a big unlock coming and
- 00:12:39somebody said hey I just Googled this on
- 00:12:41or I guess they didn't Google they
- 00:12:42grocked it and Grock said that the last
- 00:12:44unlock uh crashed by 50%. I was like
- 00:12:48really? I don't think that's true, but
- 00:12:50okay. But just so you know, there's an
- 00:12:52unlock happening in two days for SUI.
- 00:12:54SUI is in the top 20, I believe. And uh
- 00:12:57I think it's around $3.80. Doing pretty
- 00:12:59good. But just so you know, um here's
- 00:13:03the price. Damn it. Let me do that
- 00:13:05again. Here's the prices.
- 00:13:09I hate this. Hate when it does this
- 00:13:12because I can't roll over. Let me try
- 00:13:13this this way. Ah, that's better. So
- 00:13:14here's the price. the price as there is
- 00:13:19uh unlocks. So right now the unlock
- 00:13:22supply is 3.2 billion. This is on April
- 00:13:252025. And then every month there's an
- 00:13:27unlock. Then in May it went from 3.25 to
- 00:13:303.34. And the price went from $3.54 down
- 00:13:34to $321. That's not 50% but let's just
- 00:13:37keep going. So from May to June again
- 00:13:40another unlock it went from 321 to
- 00:13:43$2.90. Okay. Okay, it keeps going down.
- 00:13:45But then in June to July, the unlock
- 00:13:48supply was 3.4 billion and then they
- 00:13:51went 3.45 and it went from uh $2.90 to
- 00:13:55$381.
- 00:13:57So I don't know what's going to happen
- 00:13:59in the next unlock, which is in two
- 00:14:01days, but chances are not a big huge fat
- 00:14:04deal. And then as a reminder that uh and
- 00:14:08people were were saying but there's so
- 00:14:10many unlocks for SUI just so you know
- 00:14:13like it keeps happening like every month
- 00:14:16until next year in 2026 and even if we
- 00:14:19go out to August 2030
- 00:14:23the unlock supply is still half of the
- 00:14:27available supply. So, I know people talk
- 00:14:29about SUI and the unlocks and you should
- 00:14:31do your own research and take a look at
- 00:14:33this, but uh you're not even close uh
- 00:14:35for unlocking everything. And that's it
- 00:14:37for today. So, look, if you like today's
- 00:14:39video, give it a thumbs up, consider
- 00:14:41subscribing, and we talk about his
- 00:14:42timesensitive. Now, let's get into the
- 00:14:44best part of the show, the Q&A, and
- 00:14:47we'll answer some questions and talk
- 00:14:49trash to each other. That's it. Let's go
- 00:14:51to it. Buros is sweet.
- 00:14:54LAX guy is here. World Mobile is phone
- 00:14:58VPN, private data. True. You know what
- 00:15:00else is cool about World Mobile is that
- 00:15:01they have this anti- SIM swap and the
- 00:15:04way that they do it. So, I was talking
- 00:15:07to Mickey Watkins about this. He was
- 00:15:08been in telecommunications for a couple
- 00:15:09decades. And he says, "You know how SIM
- 00:15:11swaps work?" I said, "I have no idea."
- 00:15:12He goes, "Really? It's an inside job."
- 00:15:14He goes, "Most of these things, these
- 00:15:15SIM swaps, it's an inside job. Somebody
- 00:15:18works within the mobile provider.
- 00:15:21Somebody comes in that somebody knows
- 00:15:23and they do the SIM swap for them and
- 00:15:25they get paid for it." He goes, "With
- 00:15:27us, there is none of that." They go,
- 00:15:28"It's going to be a tight-knit uh small
- 00:15:31grouping, and that's why they're they're
- 00:15:33offering up to it's $5 million
- 00:15:37SIM swap protection." So, I was like,
- 00:15:39"Yeah, sold. Let's check it out. We'll
- 00:15:41go we'll go from there." Um
- 00:15:45ah, I like this one, Bill. I like I like
- 00:15:48William. He says, "No alt season this
- 00:15:51cycle. I've been telling you for over
- 00:15:52three years." I think there's a there's
- 00:15:54a distinction here that we have to to to
- 00:15:57talk about which is what is alt season
- 00:16:00and alt season for some people it's when
- 00:16:02my alts go up that's it but I think the
- 00:16:06broader term of of alt season is when
- 00:16:08all altcoins go up even the trash ones
- 00:16:12which is not your altcoin I mean your
- 00:16:14altcoin that you are is is stellar and
- 00:16:17perfect
- 00:16:20straight face but seriously
- 00:16:23So all season is when pretty much
- 00:16:24everything goes up across the board and
- 00:16:26nothing is as Ben puts it bleeds to uh
- 00:16:29Bitcoin. Now then I have been saying for
- 00:16:32quite some time that we're not going to
- 00:16:35have a big alt season. We might at some
- 00:16:37point but it'll be very I think it's
- 00:16:38going to be very short.
- 00:16:41But that doesn't mean that altcoins
- 00:16:42themselves
- 00:16:44won't outperform Bitcoin. They will.
- 00:16:46They will. I guarantee you there are a
- 00:16:49handful of altcoins that can outperform
- 00:16:51Bitcoin. I can tell you right now over
- 00:16:53the last year or two there's been some
- 00:16:55altcoins that have done it. You want to
- 00:16:56know which one? Sweet for one. Let me
- 00:16:58see. Let me pull this up. And of course
- 00:17:01people will say, "Yeah, but what about
- 00:17:03from 2013?" I'm not talking. Of course,
- 00:17:07Bitcoin's fantastic if you go all the
- 00:17:09way back to like 2009 and 10 when none
- 00:17:12of us bought it. Let's just be honest.
- 00:17:14But uh
- 00:17:17let's see.
- 00:17:23So, Bitcoin is fantastic. It's like 75
- 00:17:2680% of my portfolio and over a year it's
- 00:17:29up 75%. I'll take it. That's awesome. I
- 00:17:32mean, we pretty much all beat the S&P
- 00:17:35500, right? Congratulations. But, uh but
- 00:17:39did Salana beat it? I don't know. Over
- 00:17:42one year, it's down two. No, wasn't
- 00:17:44slow, that's for sure.
- 00:17:47W How about Dogecoin? Did Dogecoin beat
- 00:17:49it? Almost. Wow, look at that. 73.6%.
- 00:17:54That's funny. I got some Doge. Uh, did
- 00:17:58Tron do it? Which is I like Tron.
- 00:18:01Damn, it did. Look at that. Tron went up
- 00:18:05143.8%.
- 00:18:07I had to not have that on my bingo card.
- 00:18:09How about Cardanzo?
- 00:18:14Oh, close. No, it did. I kicked that
- 00:18:17back. It's up 92%. Over a year, huh?
- 00:18:22I'm blushing. I did not know that.
- 00:18:24Hyperlid.
- 00:18:27Well, hasn't been out that long, so I
- 00:18:30can't say that. And was I right on?
- 00:18:34I might be wrong.
- 00:18:36Oh, yeah. 43.7%.
- 00:18:39So, Bill's right, I think, as far as no
- 00:18:42altcoin this cycle, no altcoin season
- 00:18:44this cycle. I think he's correct. I just
- 00:18:45think there's going to be some that have
- 00:18:47a narrative and have utility and are
- 00:18:49going to do really well. And um the
- 00:18:52others are just going to keep sucking.
- 00:18:54That's pretty much it.
- 00:18:56And you know which one those are, those
- 00:18:58altcoins that suck, the ones that aren't
- 00:19:01in your portfolio.
- 00:19:05All right, quick time says, "It seems
- 00:19:09economy is not that good worldwide. I
- 00:19:12wonder how retail will come in." Very
- 00:19:14hard to imagine. It is very hard to
- 00:19:16imagine retail especially. But you know,
- 00:19:19it's a funny thing. I remember in 2023
- 00:19:24uh people saying that uh we weren't
- 00:19:26going to get a big rally in the crypto
- 00:19:27market. We definitely wouldn't go over
- 00:19:29three trillion market cap because all
- 00:19:31retail it was all just sty checks and
- 00:19:34that's essentially the only thing that
- 00:19:36propped us up over a $2 trillion market
- 00:19:39cap and that's been proven to be false.
- 00:19:42I think
- 00:19:46retail are not the most savviest of
- 00:19:48investors. That's okay.
- 00:19:51I believe that when they look around
- 00:19:54themselves and they go, "Hm,
- 00:19:57what can I get into these days?" I hear
- 00:20:00real estate is pretty great. They take a
- 00:20:01look at the real estate prices. Geez,
- 00:20:03413,000
- 00:20:05median price for a house. I can't afford
- 00:20:07that. And I can't even qualify for that.
- 00:20:09Heck, I I've got I can't even afford the
- 00:20:12rent that I have here. Okay, that's out.
- 00:20:14What about land? Geez, that's even
- 00:20:16worse.
- 00:20:17Okay. Well, I mean, what about uh
- 00:20:19putting in some things of some stocks?
- 00:20:21Well, the S&P 500, the MAG 7 is pretty
- 00:20:24good, but as far as like me growing out
- 00:20:26of this, S&P 500 is not going to get me
- 00:20:28there because again, retail investors,
- 00:20:31they don't think about the long long
- 00:20:32term of being there 30, 40 years. What
- 00:20:35else can I do? What else is really done
- 00:20:38really well, exceptional?
- 00:20:41Gold and silver. I'm just kidding. I own
- 00:20:44gold and silver and they might get into
- 00:20:46gold. That they'd be actually be very
- 00:20:47smart to get into gold, more probably
- 00:20:48silver as well. Um, but I think what
- 00:20:52they'll probably do is look at digital
- 00:20:54assets and go, hm, talk to me about
- 00:20:57this. Maybe there is something here.
- 00:20:58Because when I heard about it last time,
- 00:21:00it was 20, 30, 40,000. Now it's already,
- 00:21:02you know, almost tripled that as far as
- 00:21:05Bitcoin. What about the other stuff? I
- 00:21:07think there's no other options for them.
- 00:21:09I think if they look at it and they go,
- 00:21:10I can't afford squat and all the money
- 00:21:13that's sitting in my bank account is
- 00:21:14worthless now. Well, not worthless, but
- 00:21:16I want to appreciate. I want to do
- 00:21:18something. I want to live my life. I
- 00:21:20don't want to, you know, just work 40
- 00:21:22years and then uh retire and drop dead
- 00:21:24in two. So, I think that retail will
- 00:21:27come in once they figure out that this
- 00:21:29whole thing's a scam as far as like
- 00:21:32retail investing and that they can
- 00:21:34actually get into something that's
- 00:21:35actually has value and that will be at
- 00:21:37least Bitcoin.
- 00:21:40problem needs more. Exactly. You know,
- 00:21:44quick question. Does anybody feel like
- 00:21:45they have accumulated enough crypto?
- 00:21:47Does anybody feel like they've
- 00:21:48accumulated enough Bitcoin? Let's just
- 00:21:50start with that. Did you think like,
- 00:21:51whoa, I've got way too much Bitcoin. I
- 00:21:54need to slow down. Or you think to
- 00:21:56yourself, boy, I really wish I would
- 00:21:57have bought some more Bitcoin and or
- 00:21:59crypto. Just curious.
- 00:22:02Uh, World Mobile is an absolute game
- 00:22:03changer.
- 00:22:06I think so. How much is the world mobile
- 00:22:08plan? It depends. It's between uh 55 and
- 00:22:12I think it's $80.
- 00:22:14Now with Helium mobile, you're looking
- 00:22:16at like $20, which is pretty good. And
- 00:22:19if we're just talking about price, price
- 00:22:21is it. But is but again, I think the
- 00:22:23thing that really got me was the safety
- 00:22:26and was the ability just for it's it has
- 00:22:30coverage of 99% in the United States.
- 00:22:33And I'm like because I travel a lot. I
- 00:22:35want to check it out in Puerto Rico,
- 00:22:36too. But I was like that and then that
- 00:22:38SIM swap $5 million
- 00:22:41uh insurance policy because I am
- 00:22:43paranoid about losing everything. So
- 00:22:46yeah,
- 00:22:48Uzi says, "Uh, why does Tandem have a
- 00:22:50sell option but doesn't work? Can you
- 00:22:53see on Tandem eventually? I've done it
- 00:22:55in Tandem Uzi. I don't know what's going
- 00:22:57on. Maybe update the app. I will say
- 00:23:00this
- 00:23:02sucks
- 00:23:04the sell option. Now I love Tang.
- 00:23:06Everybody knows that. That's my favorite
- 00:23:07cold storage device. But I despise the
- 00:23:10fact of the sell option within Tandem
- 00:23:12because they're using like Moon Pay or
- 00:23:14something and the rates are ridiculous.
- 00:23:16I will not I refuse on principal alone
- 00:23:18to pay for those rates. In that case, if
- 00:23:21you want something else, I would move
- 00:23:24that to a hot wallet or move it to an
- 00:23:26exchange and sell it over there. And
- 00:23:28actually one of the and it first of all
- 00:23:32I like Kraken. Kraken's got its issues
- 00:23:34too. There's a link in the description
- 00:23:36and uh it's my top 10 videos to watch.
- 00:23:39And the last one is the video on
- 00:23:43centralized exchange spreads. Watch that
- 00:23:46video. I show you how to eliminate
- 00:23:47those. Kraken's good. There's some
- 00:23:50really bad ones out there. Coinbase.
- 00:23:53And just watch that and I think that'll
- 00:23:55help you out a lot.
- 00:23:57Hey, Doc Thrive, you're here. Great.
- 00:24:01Competitive pricing, but secured data.
- 00:24:04That's just it. Like, I'm getting to
- 00:24:05that point in my life where I'm just
- 00:24:07like, man, I don't want any more
- 00:24:08hassles. Just make sure everything's
- 00:24:10safe and I don't get screwed over and
- 00:24:12I'm good. Rob, thoughts on bonk today? I
- 00:24:15bought some bonk. How crazy is that? Uh,
- 00:24:18and I was actually uh I'm moving things
- 00:24:21in my tangent card.
- 00:24:24I'm going to tell you my screw-up today.
- 00:24:27So, when I first got a tangent, I bought
- 00:24:30a two pack because I was being cheap. I
- 00:24:32was like, "Wow." I was like, "For I was
- 00:24:34like, what was it? $51 or $60 for a
- 00:24:37three-pack." I'm like, "I'm going to
- 00:24:38save nine bucks." Stupid. So, I bought
- 00:24:41the two pack and I can't find the second
- 00:24:44card. Like, I think I know where it is,
- 00:24:47but I'm not for sure. I don't have a way
- 00:24:49to check it right now. So, I'm like,
- 00:24:50"You know what? If I lose this other
- 00:24:52card and I've lost the second card, I'm
- 00:24:54screwed. So, like I tell everybody in
- 00:24:56the video, you get three cards.
- 00:25:00If you lose one, no big deal, right? You
- 00:25:02got two left. And if you lose a second
- 00:25:04card, why you losing so many cards? And
- 00:25:07uh then you're down to your last one.
- 00:25:10So, I actually have been transferring
- 00:25:13crypto from one tangent other tangent. I
- 00:25:15got multiple multiple tangents. And uh
- 00:25:17there was uh it was Solana. It was
- 00:25:20Tether on Salana and I was like, why do
- 00:25:23I have Tether on Salana? So, I just
- 00:25:25swapped it within Tandem and got bonked
- 00:25:27for the hell of it. So, why not? But,
- 00:25:30uh, yeah. Ah, Mike's here. Did not get
- 00:25:33the notification. Who? Well, you know,
- 00:25:36uh, don't don't rely on YouTube giving
- 00:25:39you guys a notification that I'm on
- 00:25:42because they do not do that.
- 00:25:46Uh, let's see. Rob, how would I switch
- 00:25:50my S25 Ultra from T-Mobile to World
- 00:25:52Mobile? It's actually very, very simple.
- 00:25:55Um, you just sign up over at T-Mo or at
- 00:25:58World Mobile. But here's the thing.
- 00:26:00Don't do it yet. Let me go through the
- 00:26:03process. Maybe World Mobile sucks. I
- 00:26:05mean, I like Mickey. I mean, he's a
- 00:26:08great I mean, we're friends, I would
- 00:26:09say, and I like talking to him, but if
- 00:26:12his service sucks, I'm gonna have to
- 00:26:13tell everybody, "Hey, this service
- 00:26:15sucks." And then you'll be like, "Ah,
- 00:26:17thanks for telling me." So, just wait
- 00:26:19for a second. I mean, so far it's pretty
- 00:26:21good, but it's like my first day. So,
- 00:26:24yes.
- 00:26:25Yes, we are early.
- 00:26:29No, I was an NCO officer or No, I was
- 00:26:32just a just a sergeant just trying to
- 00:26:35make my way through the army. All season
- 00:26:38was Ben is finally taking a bunch of
- 00:26:39your coins.
- 00:26:41Can't wait to get even on ADA since I've
- 00:26:44been following you. I don't blame you. I
- 00:26:45think it'll do quite well. It just
- 00:26:46depends.
- 00:26:49It's not what I You heard it from Rob.
- 00:26:51He loves Stellar. See, that'll be the
- 00:26:53clip that everybody clips.
- 00:26:56I use carrier pigeons. Very nice. Wow.
- 00:26:59Load up in 200k of WPM.
- 00:27:02Baller coins outperform Bitcoin relative
- 00:27:05time in the market. Very true. XRP did
- 00:27:08crush it. That's true. XRP had a massive
- 00:27:11run. Yeah, they had just they just
- 00:27:13really did great. especially everybody
- 00:27:14know in the XRP community. Hats off to
- 00:27:17those guys, man. They did great.
- 00:27:22Oh, what else we got?
- 00:27:26Seth says, "It's complicated because I'm
- 00:27:28in a group plan." You got the family,
- 00:27:30don't you? I know. I talked to Nikki
- 00:27:31about that. I go, "Hey, man. Are you
- 00:27:32going to do some like family offers?"
- 00:27:34Because like, you know, we have it's us
- 00:27:36and we got some of the kids on, so we're
- 00:27:38like, "How's this going to work?" And
- 00:27:40he's like, "Yeah, yeah, we'll roll it
- 00:27:42out at some point." But I just I I had
- 00:27:43to get a second phone and just do it
- 00:27:45that way because uh honestly
- 00:27:51Brian says I was unsubscribed from Danny
- 00:27:53the other day. I don't blame you.
- 00:27:55Sometimes the stuff gets monotonous.
- 00:28:01It's interesting. David says, "Why am I
- 00:28:03hearing Black Rockck and their ETF IBIT
- 00:28:06is having an impact on suppressing the
- 00:28:09price of Bitcoin?"
- 00:28:11Yeah, that'll be interesting to see
- 00:28:16is uh let's take a look at
- 00:28:22the ETF inflows and outflows. Oh, this
- 00:28:25is Ethereum. Actually, real quick, let's
- 00:28:27take a look at Ethereum inflows and
- 00:28:28outflows today.
- 00:28:31No, it's not out. Well, yesterday, wow,
- 00:28:33look at that. 132 million for Black
- 00:28:36Rockck and then zero across the board
- 00:28:39except for Fidelity sold 49 million. So
- 00:28:44you got a net positive 65. Not too bad.
- 00:28:47I mean the ETF is doing okay. But what
- 00:28:49David was talking about, let's take a
- 00:28:51look. Let's take a look at the Bitcoin
- 00:28:53ETF flows.
- 00:28:56I guess the question for everybody like
- 00:28:58how how would they do that?
- 00:29:01because they have to hold onetoone
- 00:29:04for their clients or custody. Well,
- 00:29:07actually, they don't custody. It's
- 00:29:08Coinbase Prime uh the Bitcoin itself.
- 00:29:11So, they have to buy it unless they're
- 00:29:12telling their
- 00:29:15uh investment advisors to suppress and
- 00:29:17not recommend to their customers, but I
- 00:29:19don't know why they would. Well, I guess
- 00:29:20they could do. I will say this, it has
- 00:29:22slowed down magnificently. Look at Black
- 00:29:25Rockck as far as like the inflows. 10th
- 00:29:27of July, 448 million. 11th of July. Wow.
- 00:29:30Almost a billion dollars in one day.
- 00:29:32Wow.
- 00:29:34394 416 763. Threequarters of a billion.
- 00:29:37Half a billion here. And then 2122 just
- 00:29:40zero. 23 142 3292 147.
- 00:29:45147's not bad.
- 00:29:48I guess it would really come down to a
- 00:29:50couple different factors. Maybe it is.
- 00:29:52It's interesting. That's why I like
- 00:29:54talking to everybody. like
- 00:29:57we mean directions I would not have
- 00:29:58gone.
- 00:30:00Brian says really doesn't feel like 118k
- 00:30:03suppression. It is weird though, isn't
- 00:30:04it? I mean everything is kind of much
- 00:30:06going in the right direction. We don't
- 00:30:09have like you know China banning Bitcoin
- 00:30:11for the 20th time. Uh we don't have Gary
- 00:30:14Gendler and the SEC going yeah it's you
- 00:30:16know we think it's this and we think
- 00:30:19it's really dangerous but here we don't
- 00:30:21have the prior administration doing
- 00:30:23choke point 2.0. I know I mean we have a
- 00:30:25current administration is super
- 00:30:28pro digital assets especially stable
- 00:30:31coins and actually putting Bitcoin on
- 00:30:33and we've got I mean the monstrous
- 00:30:36Bitcoin treasuries the institutions that
- 00:30:39are buying or the businesses that are
- 00:30:40buying put on their balance sheet we got
- 00:30:42nation states there's other rumors of
- 00:30:44that that happening we don't we had a
- 00:30:46selloff of 80,000 Bitcoin just last week
- 00:30:49didn't move the market that much at all
- 00:30:51which is I think pretty positive there's
- 00:30:53a lot lot of things positively and the
- 00:30:55ETF doing well it's you would think it
- 00:30:58would be a little bit uh higher but
- 00:31:01that's just how it goes
- 00:31:04ah
- 00:31:07yeah taking a vacation needs some
- 00:31:08spending arc is moving heavy on ETH ETFs
- 00:31:12good for them I think it's a good thing
- 00:31:14for them especially if they can if they
- 00:31:16get uh APY and revenue from uh staking
- 00:31:22ah take a vacation
- 00:31:26Let's leave it here. We're over 30
- 00:31:27minutes now. Seth says, "It's hard for
- 00:31:29me to predict the price of ADA this
- 00:31:31year. I'd hope two to four dollars. I'm
- 00:31:33going to give you my prediction and then
- 00:31:35I'm going to show you
- 00:31:37the risk bands for Cardano on into the
- 00:31:40cryptoverse." So, my prediction for for
- 00:31:43Cardano is of course somewhere between
- 00:31:4622 cents
- 00:31:48and $180 by the end of 2025.
- 00:31:53undefeated in price predictions.
- 00:31:58And then
- 00:32:02for the risk factors into the
- 00:32:05cryptoverse, you can uh find a link in
- 00:32:06the description. 10% off the first
- 00:32:08month. Just saying.
- 00:32:10Let's see where'd it go. Cardano. Oh,
- 00:32:13it's a good one. Fiat risk is 0.53.
- 00:32:18It's pretty good at a whopping 78 cents.
- 00:32:23So, what I like about the risk factors
- 00:32:25is gives you a way to kind of ladder
- 00:32:27out. I always like to around 0.75 to
- 00:32:31start lading. If I DCA on DCA in I'm
- 00:32:34going to DCA out at 20 $2 and a penny
- 00:32:38might be a good idea to take some
- 00:32:39profits. Just saying. Or how about at
- 00:32:410.8 $2.55.
- 00:32:440.85 $322. Now we're talking.
- 00:32:480.9 is four bucks. And if we go crazy
- 00:32:54ballistic, if you can see this, it's
- 00:32:57$655.
- 00:33:00Wow. That'd be nice. That's it for
- 00:33:04today. So, look, like today's video,
- 00:33:06thumbs up, subscribe, all that great
- 00:33:08stuff. And uh thanks for hanging out
- 00:33:10with me for about 30 minutes. I
- 00:33:11appreciate you guys. And I'll see you on
- 00:33:12the next one. Again, tomorrow, very big
- 00:33:15day. I don't expect drone Powell to do
- 00:33:17any rate cuts, but I am really
- 00:33:20interested in the government coming out
- 00:33:22with that documentation for digital
- 00:33:24assets. We'll see where it goes. Thanks
- 00:33:26so much everybody. Are
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