00:00:01
hi my name is Mark Bernard I'm a
00:00:02
monetary Economist in this video I want
00:00:04
to talk about the Russian Rubble the US
00:00:06
dollar and you want the Chinese currency
00:00:10
I'm here in a square it actually
00:00:15
says V ukra the square of free Ukraine
00:00:20
and down there is the Russian Embassy
00:00:21
and across from that is some free
00:00:25
Russian flag and
00:00:26
monuments I was probably going to film
00:00:29
it there but the police presence is a
00:00:30
little bit too high and I asked the nice
00:00:33
lady and so I'm going to film it here
00:00:36
but it's perhaps it's even better
00:00:38
because here I am in the square of free
00:00:39
Ukraine and I'm going to talk about the
00:00:41
Russian Ruble and how it's going down
00:00:43
and the Russian economy and this is not
00:00:46
going good for Russia but I'm going to
00:00:47
back it up because I'm a monetary
00:00:49
Economist with specific evidence and
00:00:52
real data and things that you can nod
00:00:55
your head yes because the theory makes
00:00:57
sense so first thing I want to do is let
00:01:00
talk about before I talk about data and
00:01:03
E economics to your eyes glaze over I
00:01:05
want to talk about there's a show by
00:01:07
Disney believe it or not called once
00:01:09
upon a time a few years back I think
00:01:10
2000 about
00:01:13
2018 and one of the premises was the
00:01:16
kingdom the Magic Kingdom the beautiful
00:01:18
land was coming under a dark course and
00:01:21
the evil queen initiated this but when
00:01:25
all was lost and you could see this
00:01:27
Cloud this this Darkness approaching all
00:01:30
the people in Terror and
00:01:32
fear Snow White turn to the evil queen
00:01:34
and says you've lost I know it now at
00:01:38
the darkest moment
00:01:40
appearing the history was already sealed
00:01:43
and that's the same way it is with the
00:01:44
Russian Rubble so let me explain one of
00:01:48
my claims is as a monetary Economist
00:01:51
that money is the second half of every
00:01:54
transaction it has a systemic effect
00:01:56
across all markets so if the market for
00:02:00
tulips is in disequilibrium it affects
00:02:03
the tulip market if the market for
00:02:05
potatoes is in disequilibrium it affects
00:02:08
the potato Market but there are nice
00:02:09
complement and substitutes if the market
00:02:12
for cars let's say a specific brand is
00:02:15
in dise equilibrium it affects that car
00:02:17
market and even with oil okay we can say
00:02:23
there are substitutes and mitigations
00:02:25
but if the market for money is in
00:02:27
disequilibrium it has a systemic effect
00:02:29
that across all markets become in
00:02:31
disequilibrium is based on supply and
00:02:33
demand because you trade something I
00:02:35
bought this jacket for money I buy this
00:02:38
camera for money you might buy a flat an
00:02:41
apartment for money it's the second half
00:02:44
that you barter it out for instead of
00:02:46
using barter because of the double
00:02:49
coincidence of once we use money as a
00:02:51
store value medium exchange unit of
00:02:53
account I've gone over this and that is
00:02:56
the Cornerstone of Austrian Theory
00:02:59
business cycle as well as Stockholm
00:03:02
Theory and now they break it down of
00:03:04
course into interest rates the natural
00:03:06
rate of interest versus the bank rate of
00:03:07
interest because uh you know money and
00:03:10
currency let's say M1 is not as used as
00:03:15
it was thousands of years ago hundred
00:03:17
years ago this market rate versus
00:03:20
natural rate is the
00:03:22
intermediary measure of disequilibrium
00:03:25
in an
00:03:26
economy so right now you can see
00:03:29
symptoms of a monetary disequilibrium in
00:03:32
the rubble 100% because of one a stage
00:03:35
four decline in Technical analyses and
00:03:38
two high volatility very high volatility
00:03:42
now right now you may say well it's
00:03:44
bounced back up towards resistance
00:03:46
095 they broke the other resistance or
00:03:49
the support of
00:03:51
09 all the way to
00:03:53
088 and the Russians said well we're not
00:03:55
going to intervene but they are
00:03:57
intervening they are what they're doing
00:04:00
is selling Chinese currency every single
00:04:03
day I think it's like $54 million a day
00:04:05
it comes out to be like 2 you know three
00:04:08
billion 2.4 billion a month that's a lot
00:04:11
of money that they can't afford just to
00:04:14
prop up their currency why are they
00:04:15
doing this I believe they're doing this
00:04:19
because the the case of death for every
00:04:21
currency or country economics is a bad
00:04:24
currency my second claim my first claim
00:04:27
is money is systemic it's the second
00:04:29
half of every trade transaction and
00:04:30
disequilibrium in the money market
00:04:31
creates disequilibrium across all
00:04:33
markets my second claim is
00:04:36
this economies that have strong stable
00:04:39
solid low volatility I want it I want
00:04:43
that currency I trust that currency are
00:04:45
are usually founded on strong economies
00:04:48
no matter what is said in the
00:04:51
news current countries that have weak
00:04:53
currencies whether it be Zimbabwe the
00:04:55
poster chart Venezuela where they eat
00:04:57
rodents or Argentina
00:05:00
usually there's something wrong with
00:05:01
that economy right if you can refute me
00:05:05
on those two claims I challenge you
00:05:07
basic economics basic challenge so the
00:05:10
rubble they don't want to seem as weak
00:05:13
as they are in my last video I said
00:05:15
their GDP is about a is about an eighth
00:05:18
or a fraction of what they actually
00:05:20
claim on the macroeconomic
00:05:22
level you know I think I think it's like
00:05:24
450 billion and that can't support a
00:05:27
budget or any kind of major support what
00:05:30
they're trying to do is saying and it's
00:05:32
totally sarcasm Russia big Russia strong
00:05:35
support the ruble until the curtain the
00:05:37
next Administration comes in in
00:05:39
Washington and maybe there's some hope
00:05:41
that they'll be seen as strong but of
00:05:43
course we know that's not
00:05:46
true so the ruble they're trying to
00:05:49
support it and they're they're blowing
00:05:51
they're you know Bank wad all their cash
00:05:54
trying to keep it up maybe up to the new
00:05:57
res resistance of a 0 95 we'll watch it
00:06:00
over but remember what I said in order
00:06:03
for a stage four to transmute into a
00:06:06
stage two which the price of the asset
00:06:09
is above the 200 day moving average
00:06:11
there has to be a long Plateau longer
00:06:14
than actually the stage FL which is been
00:06:15
going on arguably for 15 years some guy
00:06:18
on my you know blog is's writing me and
00:06:20
he's like well should I invest in the
00:06:22
ruble he's like I think Russia will
00:06:24
recover someday and the rubble would be
00:06:25
worth something how do I invest in that
00:06:28
what
00:06:30
I'm sorry what are you talking
00:06:33
about I mean there's more chance that
00:06:36
they'll revalue their currency or the
00:06:37
the country will go away this 500y year
00:06:40
anomaly this nightmare called Moscow
00:06:43
moscoa Russia will probably might just
00:06:45
go away and maybe that Embassy down the
00:06:48
you know will become like a uh you know
00:06:50
orphanage or something down
00:06:53
there let's
00:06:56
hope the Russian State as it exists is
00:06:58
an anomaly the monetary decline is a
00:07:02
symptom of a aen economy dying they're
00:07:06
buying Chinese currency but the Chinese
00:07:09
what's happening with the Chinese
00:07:10
currency over the last month since
00:07:11
they've been buying it the Chinese
00:07:13
currency has been mirroring the decline
00:07:15
of the ruble I am a monetary Economist I
00:07:18
watch these things daily I am on the
00:07:19
tape the the ruble is going down stage
00:07:22
four the Chinese currency is going down
00:07:24
stage four it's because the sanctions
00:07:26
and the sanctions on financial
00:07:28
institutions they are being being
00:07:29
checked and double checked because
00:07:31
nobody wants to be in the bad Graces of
00:07:33
the huge markets of Europe and America
00:07:36
even though it's not the larger
00:07:37
percentage ultimately you can't just
00:07:40
trade oil for something and not be
00:07:43
participating in this world
00:07:46
economy so you might say well you know
00:07:49
the United Arab Emirates Chinese
00:07:51
currency CR currencies like that are
00:07:53
important or significant they Rivals no
00:07:56
they're not what are the top five
00:07:58
currencies in the world
00:08:00
anybody know number one currency that
00:08:03
everybody trusts everybody uses no
00:08:05
matter what you say is the US dollar 88%
00:08:08
of FX transactions of the USS US dollar
00:08:11
and you can take that to the
00:08:12
bank the euro is
00:08:14
32% the Japanese currency the one is 70
00:08:18
177% Great British pound is 13% the
00:08:21
Australian dollar is
00:08:23
6.8% those are the places I want to live
00:08:26
and you may say well that's not even
00:08:28
adding up to that's almost 100% correct
00:08:31
because remember FX has two sides of the
00:08:33
transaction but my point is the Chinese
00:08:37
currency is not there the Russian Ral is
00:08:39
certainly not there and no other
00:08:41
currency I want to live in Europe great
00:08:43
places in Europe beautiful Poland
00:08:46
Scandinavia Britain America I want to
00:08:49
live in these great countries
00:08:51
Australia I mean even even pewo in Japan
00:08:55
or something now these are just places
00:08:57
with high life expectancy High culture
00:08:59
high in you know peaceful place
00:09:02
wonderful beautiful places that you can
00:09:04
raise the Next
00:09:05
Generation and that's what it's about
00:09:07
making this world a better
00:09:10
place Chinese currency is non-existent
00:09:13
not even on the not even and you know
00:09:16
again Russia like China can claim big
00:09:19
strong country to the world but I don't
00:09:22
want to live there you know like I think
00:09:23
that Chinese like let's say China has
00:09:26
you know plateaued out at like $155,000
00:09:29
a year year us you could say well US
00:09:31
economy is Plateau to the household
00:09:33
incomes yeah like $80,000 a year okay or
00:09:36
whatever the chines number is I'm not
00:09:38
I'm not big on aggregate numbers right
00:09:41
now oh let's use the McDonald's index
00:09:45
okay let's say the currency Market is
00:09:46
all like rigged and you know the Bitcoin
00:09:49
and we can never tell which way is which
00:09:51
but there's something called the
00:09:51
McDonald's index you it's a pretty good
00:09:54
index I think The Economist magazine
00:09:56
used to put it out it was pretty good in
00:09:57
its day and you compare
00:09:59
prices of like the McDonald's Big Mac in
00:10:01
one country next to the purchasing power
00:10:04
oh oh I'm sorry R Russia confiscated uh
00:10:08
the assets of McDonald's when I you know
00:10:10
stole it and they have something called
00:10:12
tasty and better which I hear is just
00:10:15
like basically I wouldn't give it to my
00:10:17
dog so we can't even use the McDonald's
00:10:20
index okay they don't even have
00:10:23
McDonald's okay so that shows you that
00:10:26
there's something major wrong with the
00:10:28
Russian economy
00:10:30
but back to the seriousness of this
00:10:33
technical analysis using the 50-day and
00:10:36
even simple moving average 200 day I'm
00:10:38
not getting into Vector Auto regression
00:10:39
models which I love to get into please
00:10:41
let me get into this and developing
00:10:44
these huge models the simple moving
00:10:46
average the tape it tells everything you
00:10:48
need to know and this rule is in a stage
00:10:50
four they can prop it temporarily at
00:10:54
billions and billions of dollars a month
00:10:56
just to keep it within a resistance band
00:10:59
and that's probably until the next
00:11:01
Administration takes over in in DC you
00:11:04
know Victor Orbin is interfacing with
00:11:06
that Administration I mean what does
00:11:09
Victor Orbin have to do with the United
00:11:10
States he's like a poodle or something
00:11:13
right of of a of a of a despot you know
00:11:17
maybe there's I don't know
00:11:18
cryptocurrency I I don't know so these
00:11:21
sanctions are getting Tighter and
00:11:23
Tighter they're very serious if there's
00:11:26
anything going around I've seen any
00:11:28
these terms sanctions release relief for
00:11:30
peace again that's probably all AI
00:11:33
generated Bubbles and and keywords
00:11:36
that's just infiltrating social media
00:11:39
etc
00:11:40
etc ignore the news ignore that social
00:11:43
media uh Buzz information is the lowest
00:11:46
form of knowledge look at the tape and
00:11:48
the trend Stan Weinstein read his book
00:11:52
how to make money in a bull or bear Mar
00:11:54
Market I'm not recommending it
00:11:55
specifically no affiliation but it is
00:11:58
and look I'm an academic Economist top
00:12:01
universities doing top academic
00:12:04
research I still think it's of value
00:12:07
moving averages don't go away the future
00:12:10
is embedded into the price and the price
00:12:13
of the ruble is going down they're
00:12:14
trying to prop it up at the cost of
00:12:16
billions they're not going to be able to
00:12:18
do that the Chinese economy is going
00:12:20
down simultaneously paralleling they're
00:12:23
like the rulin and the Klingons publicly
00:12:25
the Klingons being you know the bad
00:12:27
version of the Klingons being Russia and
00:12:29
the ramul is maybe a little bit they're
00:12:32
there're just both going down they're
00:12:33
out of control like two inebriated
00:12:36
people on a ski slope or something so if
00:12:38
they're if they're trying to save the
00:12:40
ruble by buying or selling Chinese
00:12:43
currency good luck to
00:12:45
that what Ukraine has to do is hold
00:12:48
strong and just believe in the idea of
00:12:51
freedom freedom of Market transparency
00:12:55
democracy and with time that will
00:12:58
prevail because good always wins over
00:13:03
evil my name is Mark beran I'm a
00:13:06
monetary Economist have a great day
00:13:08
thank you very much
