00:00:00
as an Intel shareholder I always have to
00:00:02
give credit to AMD and especially Lisa
00:00:05
Su since she came in what over 10 years
00:00:07
ago 10 years ago AMD was close to
00:00:11
bankruptcy 10 years ago intel was number
00:00:14
one and it wasn't even close Intel has
00:00:17
so much money didn't even know what to
00:00:18
do with that and that's why they were
00:00:19
just buying back a lot of shares even
00:00:21
though shares were expensive paying a
00:00:24
nice dividend even though they should
00:00:25
have focused more on making sure the
00:00:28
next products are going to be better
00:00:30
than the previous ones Focus maybe on AI
00:00:34
right if you have a Visionary CEO
00:00:35
Visionary team should have seen AI
00:00:38
coming right that didn't happen Lis ASU
00:00:41
came in at MD turn it all around new
00:00:44
architecture and now is Comfortably
00:00:46
let's say the number two I mean if you
00:00:48
look at the performance in the last 10
00:00:50
years it's up over 5,000% market cap
00:00:54
Wise It's well more than double that of
00:00:57
Intel but yes this year this year we've
00:01:00
seen some underperformance by AMD at the
00:01:04
start of the year not so much at the
00:01:06
start of year this was up 43% but now
00:01:09
year today the stock is down
00:01:11
6% so what exactly is going on here we
00:01:15
also had a comment from someone at
00:01:18
Amazon that well wasn't really well
00:01:22
received by the market and that's why
00:01:23
the stock went down in the last couple
00:01:25
of days but just because all the
00:01:28
attention is going towards Nvidia or
00:01:31
even some hypers scalers right cuz
00:01:33
they're all designing their own chips I
00:01:36
think I think it's unfair right now to
00:01:40
disregard MD as a big player here of
00:01:43
course Nvidia number one by far but I
00:01:47
think MD as the number two especially at
00:01:50
these
00:01:51
prices I mean with the current
00:01:53
projections which we're going to go over
00:01:55
in this
00:01:55
video I think 2025 we could see AMD
00:01:59
outperform 2024 underperform 2025
00:02:03
outperform I'll make a separate video
00:02:05
about Intel because whatever is going on
00:02:07
there is is very interesting right now
00:02:10
Pat Ginger still has CEO of Intel in his
00:02:13
bio on X is now tweeting out and
00:02:15
responding to some tweets it's very very
00:02:19
interesting very very interesting
00:02:21
anyways focusing back on MD let's talk
00:02:24
about the stock and let's talk about the
00:02:27
recent announcement and why I think the
00:02:29
market is is just overreacting yet again
00:02:32
if you enjoy this type of vide leave it
00:02:34
a thumbs up subscribe if you have not
00:02:35
really appreciate that if you want to
00:02:36
support me even further do check out the
00:02:38
link down in the description and the P
00:02:39
comment with the top 10 best stocks to
00:02:40
buy now or go to full.com couch investor
00:02:43
thank you very much I do want to first
00:02:45
start by showing you the let's say
00:02:47
Market sentiment or the analyst
00:02:49
sentiment towards MD because currently
00:02:51
the average analyst price Target sits
00:02:54
33.4% higher than the price we're at
00:02:56
right now if we look at some pricing
00:02:59
metrics forward P Price to sales price
00:03:01
to free cash flow forp 30.6 times
00:03:04
compared to 37.6 times Eva 30.7 times
00:03:09
price to S 7.3 times which is very close
00:03:11
to the 5year mean here price to free
00:03:13
cash flow that's in the last 12 months
00:03:15
that's expected to be much much better
00:03:17
in the next 12 months as you will see
00:03:19
later in this video and then price
00:03:21
earnings to growth 72 under one is
00:03:25
undervalued I think this company is just
00:03:27
misunderstood right now and I would
00:03:31
agree I would agree and this what I've
00:03:33
been saying for a long long time I would
00:03:34
agree that with all the AI momentum
00:03:37
let's say with everything that we've
00:03:38
seen with Nvidia you would have thought
00:03:41
that maybe AMD from the AI side would
00:03:45
have grown much quicker right would have
00:03:47
grown much more than what we have seen
00:03:50
it's true that data center Revenue has
00:03:52
increased quite quickly this year way
00:03:54
more than all the other segments I mean
00:03:57
there's faced some headwinds with
00:03:58
regards to gaming
00:04:00
but yeah data center is up quite a lot
00:04:03
they've talked about revenue from AI
00:04:05
exceeding $5 billion for the year which
00:04:07
is more than last quarter what they told
00:04:09
us last quarter and definitely way more
00:04:12
than what they told us at the start of
00:04:14
the year but again it's only $5 billion
00:04:18
Market was probably expecting a bit more
00:04:21
all in all last quarter these were the
00:04:23
numbers so data center Revenue really
00:04:25
not an issue year-over-year growth and
00:04:26
quarter over quarter growth very very
00:04:28
strong there client one growing year
00:04:31
over year and quarter over quarter with
00:04:33
regards to gaming some weakness there
00:04:34
and embedded as well still seeing some
00:04:37
weakness now remember I said with
00:04:40
regards to free cash flow the next 12
00:04:41
months the pricing metric there will be
00:04:44
much much better and that's because of
00:04:46
this last 12 months free cash flow were
00:04:48
at 1.55 billion but for fiscal 2024 that
00:04:52
number is basically expected to be
00:04:54
closer to $3.7 billion then in fiscal
00:04:58
2025 it's expected to grow by 90% And
00:05:01
then in fiscal 2026 by another 33%
00:05:05
reaching 9.33 billion in free cash flow
00:05:09
just two fiscal years from now now how
00:05:12
will they reach those numbers well it's
00:05:14
probably again thanks to the data center
00:05:17
side of the business if you look at
00:05:19
operating income for the company well
00:05:21
the large majority comes from data
00:05:24
center then you've got client and gaming
00:05:27
now of course if we compare it to the
00:05:28
other two to Nvidia which Nvidia is the
00:05:31
green one here that's Nvidia gross
00:05:32
profit margin in the League of Their Own
00:05:35
if we look at MD for example which is
00:05:37
orange line right here has been
00:05:39
recovering right has been recovering
00:05:41
since Q2 2023 not by much but we're now
00:05:44
at
00:05:45
52.1% and of course compared to Intel
00:05:48
well it's much much better but then
00:05:50
again Intel also has a Foundry side of
00:05:52
things so it's not always Apples to
00:05:54
Apples now what brought the stock down
00:05:57
was basically this Amazon isn't seeing
00:05:59
enough demand for amd's AI chips to
00:06:02
offer them via its Cloud AWS has not
00:06:05
committed to offering Cloud access to
00:06:07
amd's AI chips in part due to low
00:06:10
customer demand AWS said it was
00:06:12
considering offering amd's new AI chips
00:06:15
last year MD recently increased the
00:06:17
sales forecast for its AI chips which
00:06:20
again is making all of this quite
00:06:23
laughable so Hut said the following we
00:06:25
follow customer demand if customers have
00:06:27
strong indications that those are needed
00:06:30
then there's no reason not to deploy AWS
00:06:33
is not yet seeing that high demand for
00:06:36
amds AI chips AWS provided Cloud access
00:06:39
to other AI chips such as Nvidia gpus at
00:06:42
reinvent AWS announced the launch of P6
00:06:45
servers which come with nvidia's latest
00:06:47
Blackwell gpus AWS and AMD are still
00:06:51
close Partners according to Hut AWS
00:06:53
offers Cloud access to amd's CPU server
00:06:56
chips and amd's AI chip product line is
00:06:59
always under consideration an AMD
00:07:01
sportsperson said it did not have a
00:07:04
comment on hot statement but reiterated
00:07:06
the Dr Lisa suet company has multiple
00:07:09
public customers including Microsoft
00:07:12
Azure meta Oracle IBM cloud and others
00:07:16
like tensor wave and NS scale that have
00:07:18
talked about their use of the AMD
00:07:20
Instinct accelerator and the benefits
00:07:23
and the demand for them the spokesperson
00:07:25
also noted meta is using amd's Instinct
00:07:28
as the soul
00:07:30
accelerator on the Llama 3.1 45b model
00:07:35
now we're already at Lama 3.3 so let's
00:07:37
see what happens with that while
00:07:39
Microsoft said that instinct provides
00:07:41
them the best price to Performance for
00:07:44
GPT 4 inference on Microsoft Azure and
00:07:47
remember last quarter Lisas Su talked
00:07:49
about well the next products that are
00:07:52
coming out for AMD so it shed the
00:07:54
following we have successfully
00:07:56
accelerated our product development Pace
00:07:58
to deliver an annual Cadence of new
00:08:00
Instinct products our next gen Mi 350
00:08:03
series is looking very good and is on
00:08:05
track to launch in the second half of
00:08:07
20125 with the largest generational
00:08:09
increase in AI performance we have ever
00:08:12
delivered development on our Mii 400
00:08:15
series based on the cdna NEX
00:08:17
architecture is also progressing very
00:08:19
well towards a 2026 launch we've built
00:08:22
significant momentum across our data
00:08:24
center AI business with deployments
00:08:27
increasing across an expanding set of
00:08:29
cloud Enterprise and AI customers as a
00:08:32
result we now expect data center GPU
00:08:34
Revenue to exceed $5 billion in 2024 up
00:08:38
from 4.5 that they got it back in July
00:08:41
and the original $2 billion when they
00:08:43
started the year of course that's great
00:08:46
but then the question will be what
00:08:48
happens in 2025 that's maybe what the
00:08:51
analysts right now are waiting for right
00:08:53
probably the next quarter okay exceeding
00:08:56
$5 billion for 2024 great
00:09:00
but what about 2025 what's that number
00:09:02
going to be are we going to grow much
00:09:05
quicker are we going to go to 7 7.5 8
00:09:10
could they double that maybe maybe not
00:09:13
so we're now in a phase where okay the
00:09:16
stock is down for the year has seen very
00:09:19
very weak actually in the last couple of
00:09:21
months but what's next what's next are
00:09:25
you going to wait to see what's next or
00:09:27
are you going to take a chance right now
00:09:28
and say look
00:09:30
the Revival of AMD 10 years ago tells me
00:09:33
that this company knows what they're
00:09:35
doing yes of course now they're not
00:09:37
fighting Intel they're going to fight
00:09:40
Nvidia but to be honest I don't even
00:09:43
think they're fighting Nvidia per se
00:09:45
since this Market is so big we're still
00:09:47
very very early days here so they're
00:09:51
fighting themselves let's say their own
00:09:54
engineering let's provide the customers
00:09:57
with the best products and if it's the
00:09:58
best product out there best performance
00:10:00
or the best price is probably going to
00:10:03
sell logically speaking and so right now
00:10:07
looking at the stock still still here in
00:10:10
between waiting it's going to look quite
00:10:13
interesting if we actually reach the
00:10:15
next earnings report and that's when
00:10:17
this stock actually moves out I don't
00:10:19
always believe in technical analysis but
00:10:22
I've seen so many of those already in
00:10:24
the past couple of years and yes
00:10:26
sometimes they do work out to the dot
00:10:28
which is pretty crazy anyways here on
00:10:31
the weekly we're back under the 20-day
00:10:33
moving average the stock did not stay
00:10:36
above that but we finished the week as a
00:10:39
green candle RSI is pretty neutral right
00:10:42
now so yeah we're back under $140 and to
00:10:46
be honest I mean yeah if you only look
00:10:48
at the pricing metrics and stuff like
00:10:50
that then it paints you half the picture
00:10:53
because we're talking here about MD
00:10:55
we're not talking here about a company
00:10:57
that will I don't know I can't
00:10:59
come up with a good example here but
00:11:01
with MD with these types of companies
00:11:03
it's also important to look at the
00:11:05
products the product road maps look at
00:11:07
some interviews here and there to
00:11:08
understand why is the company trading at
00:11:11
those multiples there's probably a
00:11:13
reason for that right so yeah you have
00:11:15
to look at the releases The Benchmark
00:11:17
numbers for the next gpus the CPUs etc
00:11:20
etc what the what do the customers say
00:11:23
do they like it do they don't don't like
00:11:25
it etc etc we've seen a lot of hype
00:11:27
around Qualcomm and arm-based
00:11:29
computers coming out right what happened
00:11:33
we haven't we haven't heard anything
00:11:35
since then right since that announcement
00:11:36
they got a lot of attention now nothing
00:11:39
anymore now I'm not saying that they're
00:11:42
not going to be successful but sometimes
00:11:45
there's a lot of hype sometimes there's
00:11:46
a lot of noise it's always important to
00:11:48
actually dig a little bit deeper and see
00:11:51
what the heck is going on with MD even
00:11:54
me as an Intel shareholder I can see
00:11:56
that there is a lot of value here and
00:11:59
there is some misunderstanding yes it's
00:12:01
true there are some question marks for
00:12:05
2025 but I mean lisu already proved
00:12:09
everyone wrong do we doubt her again I
00:12:13
don't think so anyways I think going
00:12:16
2025 could be a let's say contrarian
00:12:19
pick AMD I'm still going with Intel
00:12:22
which I know is crazy but I'll explain
00:12:24
it in another video anyways if you enjoy
00:12:26
this type of videos leave it a thumbs up
00:12:28
subscribe if you have not and I see you
00:12:29
all in another one bye-bye
00:12:33
[Music]
