Allen School Colloquium: Rediet Abebe (Harvard Society of Fellows)
Resumen
TLDRRediet Abebe, a Harvard junior fellow, presents her research on the application of algorithms and AI for social good, focusing on effectively addressing issues like poverty and resource allocation. She identifies key challenges in measuring social problems and optimally allocating scarce resources to aid disadvantaged communities. Abebe discusses her work on modeling income shocks, which have substantial impacts on resource allocation and poverty dynamics. Throughout the talk, audience members engage in discussions about the implications and effectiveness of various interventions, highlighting the need for thoughtful design in algorithms used in public policy. The conversation emphasizes that understanding the complexity of social problems and refining objective functions is vital for successful outcomes in social interventions.
Para llevar
- 👩🎓 Rediet Abebe is a recognized innovator in algorithms and social good.
- 📊 Measuring social issues like poverty is challenging due to data sparsity.
- 💡 Algorithmic techniques can help optimize resource allocation effectively.
- 🔍 Understanding income shocks is crucial for accurate welfare measurement.
- 🎯 Interventions should be designed with careful consideration of objectives.
- 🌍 Collaboration across various fields is essential for addressing social problems.
- 📉 Informed interventions can mitigate long-term effects of poverty.
- ⚖️ Setting objective functions impacts the effectiveness of resource distribution.
- 🔄 Income subsidies can vary in impact depending on their design and constraints.
Cronología
- 00:00:00 - 00:05:00
Anna Karlin welcomes Rediet Abebe, who is recognized for her impactful research at the intersection of algorithms, AI, and social good. Abebe expresses excitement about the rapid organization of the event and her eagerness to share her research.
- 00:05:00 - 00:10:00
Abebe emphasizes the significance of algorithmic techniques in improving societal welfare. However, she outlines several key challenges in this field, such as measurement difficulties, limited resources, and information access barriers, all of which complicate interventions for disadvantaged communities.
- 00:10:00 - 00:15:00
The talk focuses on two intervention types: the allocation of societal resources and the improvement of information access for disadvantaged groups. Abebe highlights the critical measurement challenges in these areas, especially in quantifying poverty and its complexities beyond simple financial metrics.
- 00:15:00 - 00:20:00
Using poverty as a case study, Abebe discusses the inadequacy of conventional income measurements, which often miss significant aspects of disadvantage, such as income shocks. She presents empirical evidence showing the real-world implications of income shocks on homelessness and other adverse outcomes.
- 00:20:00 - 00:25:00
Abebe and her collaborators propose a model to account for income shocks in resource allocation, aiming to minimize the risk of ruin for families experiencing these financial disruptions. The focus is on ensuring families do not fall below a certain threshold of resources.
- 00:25:00 - 00:30:00
Through the modeling process, Abebe illustrates the core objectives and constraints of allocating income subsidies. She discusses using a greedy algorithm to determine how resources can be optimally distributed among families based on their individual profiles and risk assessments.
- 00:30:00 - 00:35:00
The discussion extends to alternative objective functions, such as min-max configurations where the goal shifts from minimizing ruin generally to helping those most at risk, showcasing the nuanced trade-offs in resource distribution strategies.
- 00:35:00 - 00:40:00
The potential impact of different intervention types is explored, emphasizing the varying effectiveness of income subsidies versus wealth subsidies. Abebe draws attention to the importance of designing interventions according to specific community needs and characteristics.
- 00:40:00 - 00:45:00
Addressing information provisioning, Abebe shares research focused on understanding the information needs related to HIV and AIDS across Africa. Findings indicate significant gaps in access to accurate health information, prompting efforts to leverage search data for better health interventions.
- 00:45:00 - 00:50:00
Abebe's collaborative work highlights the analysis of search data and its implications for public health strategies. She points out discrepancies in the quality of online content related to health information and the necessity of enhancing access to credible resources.
- 00:50:00 - 00:57:47
The talk concludes with an appeal to think critically about the role of computing in addressing societal issues, alongside an overview of ongoing projects within the Mechanism Design for Social Good initiative, underscoring the community's commitment to impactful research.
Mapa mental
Vídeo de preguntas y respuestas
Who is Rediet Abebe?
Rediet Abebe is a junior fellow at Harvard Society of Fellows, recognized for her work in algorithms and AI focused on social good.
What are the challenges in applying algorithmic techniques to social problems?
The key challenges include profound measurement difficulties and the scarcity of resources to implement interventions.
What is the focus of Abebe's research?
Her research focuses on optimizing societal resource allocation and improving access to information for disadvantaged communities.
How can algorithms improve societal welfare?
Algorithms can provide insights into resource allocation, help identify social needs, and improve decision-making processes in public sectors.
What is the significance of income shocks in poverty measurement?
Income shocks, such as sudden expenses, can significantly impact individuals' welfare and are often not captured in standard income measurements.
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- 00:00:05Anna Karlin: Good Afternoon.
- 00:00:06It's a great pleasure to welcome Rediet Abebe here.
- 00:00:09She is a junior fellow at the Harvard Society of Fellows.
- 00:00:12She got her PhD in computer science at Cornell with Jon Kleinberg.
- 00:00:16Her research is in algorithms and AI with a focus on social good and
- 00:00:21she co-founded a very important interdisciplinary, multi-institutional research group
- 00:00:27and series of workshops called:
- 00:00:29Mechanism Design for Social Good.
- 00:00:31Actually, together with my student, Kira Goldner, which I am very proud.
- 00:00:37And she's been recognized as one of the MIT Technology Reviews, 35 Innovators Under 35,
- 00:00:43one to watch by 2018 Bloomberg 50 List
- 00:00:47and we are very very happy to have her here today.
- 00:00:50Rediet Abebe: Thank you.
- 00:00:53There's more seats at the front.
- 00:00:55If you all want to, if you all want to come up, I'll feel less lonely up here.
- 00:00:58I'm gonna continue to put you on the spot until you come up and so you might as well just come up now.
- 00:01:04All right.
- 00:01:06All right. I'll just wait until everyone is settled in.
- 00:01:09Very good.
- 00:01:10We have a few more we have a few more.
- 00:01:12What's up? Yeah. Yeah. I know, I just.
- 00:01:15Audience: West Coast time.
- 00:01:15Rediet Abebe: West Coast time. I see, okay.
- 00:01:18If you can time also we call it. So, we're good.
- 00:01:22All right.
- 00:01:24There's two more
- 00:01:26But you can also be at the back. I won't continue to put people on the spotlight. Good.
- 00:01:30All right, so, thank you so much for the invitation to visit here
- 00:01:35and just the speed with which you made it happen.
- 00:01:37It's honestly kind of incredible how quickly all this came together.
- 00:01:41I'm really excited to be here,
- 00:01:43this is an institution that I've long known for being very strong in theory,
- 00:01:47but also in the ICTD community.
- 00:01:49And as someone who cares about both sides of these things, I'm really excited to be here.
- 00:01:53And so I'm gonna be able to share with you all some work that I've done.
- 00:01:56That's kind of at the
- 00:01:58interface of theory and AI but also with applications
- 00:02:01to, you know, development contacts.
- 00:02:04So, very happy to share this with you all.
- 00:02:08So, over the years,
- 00:02:10we've seen that algorithmic and computational techniques
- 00:02:13have been useful in a variety of
- 00:02:16public sector context so we know instances like mechanism design for kidney exchange or
- 00:02:22the use of machine learning for poverty mapping or using statistical methods for homelessness
- 00:02:29service allocations.
- 00:02:31But, across many domains there remain
- 00:02:35significant major opportunities for
- 00:02:37exploration and the prospect that we may be able to develop unified frameworks for
- 00:02:43applying algorithmic and computational insights to improve societal welfare.
- 00:02:49And in this endeavor of applying algorithmic techniques of temporal societal welfare,
- 00:02:54we face a couple of key challenges that I've served as a sort of background or backdrop to my research.
- 00:03:01The first is that, there are profound measurement challenges
- 00:03:05so a lot of social problems that we want to address
- 00:03:08Like, let's say poverty or inequality or stigma are known to be very difficult to measure.
- 00:03:13So there's issues of data sparsity,
- 00:03:16maybe we don't have good ground truth data,
- 00:03:18maybe there's sort of hidden interactions that we can't get at.
- 00:03:21And so, even just knowing the extent of the problem can be very challenging.
- 00:03:26The second is that
- 00:03:27a lot of resources that we need to implement interventions
- 00:03:31to improve access to opportunity are
- 00:03:33often finite and and many times actually very scarce.
- 00:03:37So you can think about let's say,
- 00:03:39allocating
- 00:03:41government subsidies or low-income housing resources or even human resources like doctors.
- 00:03:46A lot of times you're in situations
- 00:03:48where we just don't have enough resources to allocate
- 00:03:51and we have to make hard decisions.
- 00:03:53And the third is that when we're thinking about
- 00:03:56information, right, which is not a finite resource.
- 00:03:59We can still have other
- 00:04:01barriers or bottlenecks so we often have
- 00:04:04sort of things like social segregation or maybe unmodeled interactions or infrastructural
- 00:04:09challenges that make us such that on the one side we have,
- 00:04:12You know communities that are in desperate need of specific types of information
- 00:04:16And the information is kind of bottlenecked and kind of stuck on the other side.
- 00:04:21So these are the sort of three key challenges
- 00:04:24that we face here and we asked the question:
- 00:04:27How can we design and analyze and potentially even deploy
- 00:04:30algorithmic and computational techniques that can address these challenges to improve access to opportunity?
- 00:04:36And we'll focus specifically on
- 00:04:38communities of individuals
- 00:04:42that have often not had these opportunities or disadvantaged communities.
- 00:04:46So this is the kind of overarching question of my research and I
- 00:04:50specifically look at two types of interventions here.
- 00:04:53So the first intervention is allocating societal resources.
- 00:04:57Like what we mentioned:
- 00:04:58government subsidies, you know, seats and classrooms things like that,
- 00:05:01other public goods you might think of.
- 00:05:03And the second is,
- 00:05:05improving access to information for
- 00:05:09disadvantaged communities.
- 00:05:10So these are the two interventions that we'll look at,
- 00:05:13and we'll find that in both of these different types of interventions
- 00:05:17there are severe measurement challenges, so
- 00:05:20Sort of an important a very difficult first step is actually quantifying the extent of the problem.
- 00:05:25The need for interventions, maybe receptiveness the different types of interventions or maybe
- 00:05:30Potentially disparities that might exist between different types of communities.
- 00:05:34So oftentimes quantifying that is a very challenging and important first step.
- 00:05:38So, just to see an example, let's think about poverty.
- 00:05:42Poverty is a problem that is highly prevalent across the U.S.
- 00:05:45Something like 10 to 15% of all individuals are currently in poverty.
- 00:05:50And if you look at people who've experienced poverty at some point,
- 00:05:52that percentage actually goes much higher.
- 00:05:55But, despite the prevalence of poverty,
- 00:05:58we know that it's very difficult to measure and oftentimes,
- 00:06:01what we do is we rely on simple measurements of economic welfare
- 00:06:06like people's income or their wealth or other sort of very simple metrics.
- 00:06:11And we use these metrics to make very consequential decisions
- 00:06:15about what families will get these resources and why they get them.
- 00:06:19But, at the same time, there's a lot of empirical work that shows that the simple
- 00:06:25sort of income only measurements which are very prevalent, for instance,
- 00:06:29are just not doing a good enough job, right?
- 00:06:31So, if you look at the poverty tracker study, which is
- 00:06:35Longitudinal study that's been conducted at Columbia University in the
- 00:06:38Population Research Center
- 00:06:40they have a series of
- 00:06:41reports that show that these income only measurements actually don't capture the full magnitude of disadvantage
- 00:06:47and so we have a lot of families
- 00:06:49that are kind of going under the radar because they don't look like they're struggling
- 00:06:53if you're only looking at income.
- 00:06:54But this really applies
- 00:06:55to a lot of other metrics that we would use,
- 00:06:57wealth would be another example.
- 00:07:00And so you might ask,
- 00:07:02"okay if income only measurements are not
- 00:07:05accurately capturing the extent of disadvantage, what exactly are we missing?"
- 00:07:11One dimension that we know is missing in these measurements is income shocks.
- 00:07:15So, income shocks are things like,
- 00:07:18maybe an unexpected expense that you have to deal with like a medical expense or even a parking ticket
- 00:07:23or maybe sort of an interruption and your income flow,
- 00:07:25maybe you lose your job or you have a delayed paycheck, right?
- 00:07:29And there's a lot of empirical work that shows that these income shocks can play a very significant role.
- 00:07:34Just to see an example,
- 00:07:36There's work by Matt Desmond who's a Princeton Sociologist
- 00:07:40who looked at homelessness and housing instability in Milwaukee,
- 00:07:43but really now across the U.S.
- 00:07:45And his work highlights the lives of people like
- 00:07:48Ara Sparkman, that you see pictured here.
- 00:07:51Ara Sparkman is, at the time of this picture, she was 42.
- 00:07:54She is from from Milwaukee
- 00:07:56and this picture was taken the day that she was evicted from her home.
- 00:08:00And her life,
- 00:08:02and the lives of many others, that have been kind of brought to light through his work,
- 00:08:06show that these sort of income shocks
- 00:08:08can play a significant role in starting these cycles of
- 00:08:11poverty that can be very challenging to get out of.
- 00:08:14So his work is really just one example of many that we can highlight.
- 00:08:17There's a lot of work in economics and sociology
- 00:08:20if you look at, you know,
- 00:08:21household consumption dynamics or optimal taxation theory that really documents that
- 00:08:26these shocks can play a significant role in may be causing eviction or making it more likely
- 00:08:32causing health issues, worse labor outcomes, all sorts of things.
- 00:08:36So there's ample evidence from the social sciences
- 00:08:39that income shocks significantly matter.
- 00:08:42And yet, today we don't have a sort of algorithmic perspective on this.
- 00:08:46We don't have a perspective that says
- 00:08:48how can we model income shocks and the measurements of welfare and how might that
- 00:08:53change the algorithmic questions that we asked about how we allocate resources.
- 00:08:58So this is precisely the question that we looked at in joint work with Jon Kleinberg & Matt Weinberg
- 00:09:03who was a member of the MD first-year reading group from the beginning days.
- 00:09:07We asked how can we model and how can we design algorithms that optimally allocate subsidies
- 00:09:13when we know that agents are sort of experiencing income shocks.
- 00:09:17So we have a measurement of not just income but also
- 00:09:20income shocks that people might experience.
- 00:09:23So for this, we
- 00:09:25develop a sort of a stylized model of welfare.
- 00:09:28So, imagine that you have 'N' families, you see indexed here.
- 00:09:32For the first family, imagine that on the x axis here.
- 00:09:35You have the time on the y axis
- 00:09:37You have the agents reserve, which is going to characterize that agent.
- 00:09:41Imagine that the agent now has,
- 00:09:44in the beginning to have an initial reserve or wealth of 'u subscript i'
- 00:09:49So that measures, let's say, what their what they have in their savings account and all that their assets combined.
- 00:09:54And they also have a net income of 'c subscript i'
- 00:09:57So this is,
- 00:09:58You can think of this as sort of the difference between
- 00:10:00'what they would bring in every month' minus 'what they would what they would spend on average'
- 00:10:07So, in the absence of income shocks,
- 00:10:10then this agent's reserve at time 't'
- 00:10:13Would be what their initial reserve is, right?
- 00:10:16So their Wealth plus 'c subscript i,' which is their net income, times 't'
- 00:10:19So we're imagining that we're in continuous time.
- 00:10:22So this is what their reserve would be.
- 00:10:24But we're in a setting where agents are experiencing income shocks
- 00:10:28So we will model these income shocks as a sort of a sudden drop in your reserve that you see indicated by these like kind
- 00:10:35of vertical drops that you see there.
- 00:10:37And we make a couple of assumptions that some of which we'll be able to drop
- 00:10:42so we imagine that sharks arrive at randomly selected discrete time points: T1, T2, T3 and so on.
- 00:10:49And we denote the magnitude of the shock by S1, S2, S3, and so on correspondingly.
- 00:10:55For now, we'll assume that shocks have cause on arrival and so you have an arival rate of 'Beta subscript i'
- 00:11:02That's for 'agent i'
- 00:11:04And the magnitude of the shocks are drawn from a distribution 'f subscript i' that's specific to agents.
- 00:11:11So worth noting here, is that your wealth, your income,
- 00:11:14the distribution from which your shocks are drawn,
- 00:11:16and the arrival rates of the shocks are specific to you.
- 00:11:19So you can have different families that can match on some of these and not on others.
- 00:11:25And so, in this setting the reserve changes, but not by much.
- 00:11:28So the reserve is, where your reserve would have been if you didn't experience any shocks
- 00:11:32Minus the total magnitude of shocks that you've experienced up until that point, right?
- 00:11:36So this is what you would have for the agent's reserve and we'll assume that
- 00:11:41That these reserves characterize the agents.
- 00:11:45And what we're really interested in is this insight that we talked about earlier
- 00:11:49from homelessness or eviction literature, really other shock literature which is that,
- 00:11:55once someone falls below a specific threshold of reserve, they now become significantly susceptible to
- 00:12:01experiencing eviction, poor health, job loss
- 00:12:04All these things that don't want families to experience but also are very expensive actually to
- 00:12:09undo rather than just preventing families from experiencing them in the first place.
- 00:12:15So we'll assume that you know, we'll set this threshold as zero
- 00:12:18We'll assume that if you fall below the threshold, you've experienced ruin
- 00:12:21and what we would like to make sure is that families do not experience ruin.
- 00:12:25So, we are we're gonna work in the infinite horizon case
- 00:12:28where we want to make sure that families don't fall below this threshold at any
- 00:12:31point in the infinite horizon case.
- 00:12:34And so,
- 00:12:35what our objective interest is this sort of ruin probability
- 00:12:39in the infinite horizon setting.
- 00:12:41So, this ruin probability, which will denote by
- 00:12:44'psi subscipt i' is a function of your income, your initial wealth,
- 00:12:48the distribution from which your shocks are drawn and the arrival rates of the shocks.
- 00:12:54So, as a planner,
- 00:12:56now, you can intervene.
- 00:12:58So we'll look at a couple of different types of interventions.
- 00:13:00The first one we'll look at is an income subsidy.
- 00:13:03So you imagine that what an income subsidy does
- 00:13:06is it takes your income, 'c subscript i' and it just adds an 'x subscript i'
- 00:13:10So it's basically changing the slope of the diagram
- 00:13:14that you see here from the dotted one to the solid one.
- 00:13:17And maybe that subsidy would have been
- 00:13:19sufficient to make sure that this agent did not experience ruin
- 00:13:22in the timeframe that you see here.
- 00:13:25And will assume that the planner has a fixed budget 'b' for the income subsidies
- 00:13:29that they can give out at any at any time point.
- 00:13:32And, our objective, for now, will be the min-sum objective.
- 00:13:35So the min-sum objective
- 00:13:37wants to minimize the expected number of people that experience ruin.
- 00:13:41So it wants to minimize the sum of their ruin probabilities of the agent,
- 00:13:46subject to the the budget constraint.
- 00:13:48So we have a well-defined optimization problem, right?
- 00:13:50We have a budget for income subsidies that we can give out,
- 00:13:53We have the agent's profile set that's been given to us
- 00:13:56and we want optimize for the min-sum objective
- 00:14:00But, at the same time we also want to see whether there's sort of
- 00:14:04any insights that we can draw from here that might be useful.
- 00:14:07So we want to solve this optimization problem, of course, but we also want to see what
- 00:14:11qualitative insights we can walk away with that might be useful.
- 00:14:15So, we will start with a sort of a special case, that's a well motivated case.
- 00:14:19We'll assume that the agents have zero initial reserve.
- 00:14:23So you can imagine these are families that are sort of living paycheck-to-paycheck,
- 00:14:25don't really have a safety net to fall on.
- 00:14:28And, we'll further assume for now, also that,
- 00:14:33that the agents experience positive drift.
- 00:14:35Meaning that your net income, 'c subscript i,' minus the 'Beta' times the 'Mu'
- 00:14:39So the 'Mu' is the mean of the distribution of your shocks.
- 00:14:42So the 'c subscript i' minus 'Beta' 'Mu subscript i' is positive
- 00:14:47meaning that on average, you're kind of trending up, right?
- 00:14:50So your ruin probability is less than one.
- 00:14:52So, if you had this value being negative, it means that on average you're going down,
- 00:14:55you're gonna experience ruin almost surely.
- 00:14:58So, we'll assume that we have positive drift for now,
- 00:15:00we'll be able to drop that assumption later.
- 00:15:03And in this setting,
- 00:15:04a kind of remarkable results from the theory of probability of fluent probabilities
- 00:15:09is that, actually, your 'psi subscript i' has a very simple expression.
- 00:15:14This is what the additional assumption that you have, kind of, finite mean and variance
- 00:15:18But, assuming that it's a very mild assumption.
- 00:15:20Actually you have this very simple expression
- 00:15:24for your ruin probability for a family.
- 00:15:28So, that makes our lives easier, right?
- 00:15:31Because the min-sum objective was trying to minimize
- 00:15:34for this new function that you see here, 'phi'
- 00:15:37So it's trying to minimize for the sum of their own probabilities
- 00:15:39but you can now rewrite the ruin probabilities as using that expression that we saw from the previous slide.
- 00:15:45And you're trying to
- 00:15:48allocate these income subsidies the 'x subscript i' so that you can
- 00:15:52minimize for the sum of the ruin probabilities.
- 00:15:55Audience: Question
- 00:15:57Audience: So, that previous result was presumably dependent on infinite (inaudible)?
- 00:16:02Abebe: Yes, yes. It's the infinite horizon case.
- 00:16:04Audience: Okay, so does that matter?
- 00:16:06Abebe: So, for the, yeah.
- 00:16:07So, I tried it this in the finite horizon case. The math gets...
- 00:16:11Audience: That's what I would have...
- 00:16:12But does it matter?
- 00:16:13Abebe: Qualitatively, it doesn't.
- 00:16:14Yeah, so I've kind of run a bunch of simulations qualitatively doesn't really seem to matter much.
- 00:16:18Like, it matters a little bit.
- 00:16:19But yeah, that's a good question.
- 00:16:22Yeah, the math is just much easier
- 00:16:24Audience: (inaudible)...eventually everyone ends up ruined.
- 00:16:27Abebe: No, if you have positive...
- 00:16:29Audience: (inaudible)
- 00:16:30Abebe: Oh, sure, sure, sure. Yeah of course.
- 00:16:31Audience: But there would be circumstances in which the infinite case would not be super important
- 00:16:37for actually how normal people would live under some reasonably short finite times?
- 00:16:44Abebe: Yeah, I think you know this.
- 00:16:45I think,
- 00:16:46having the finite horizon case.
- 00:16:48I think that might also make sense in terms of just mapping it to current policy, right?
- 00:16:51And how you make decisions, but yeah.
- 00:16:54I think it's an important consideration.
- 00:16:57Okay, so we're gonna keep going.
- 00:16:58I'm sure there will be a question by the end of the slide
- 00:17:00So, okay. So we're trying to give out this income subsidy, right?
- 00:17:04So we take the partial derivative 'phi' with respect to the 'x subscript i'
- 00:17:08and you have the expression that you see there.
- 00:17:10You can take the second derivative and you find that it's always positive.
- 00:17:14So what the cell says is that this 'phi' is strictly convex, right?
- 00:17:18And so, what that says is that it is kind of straightforward.
- 00:17:23Greedy water-filling algorithm will give you the optimal solution.
- 00:17:26The water-filling algorithm would basically order the agents by their partial values.
- 00:17:32From the agent that has the sort of the most negative value,
- 00:17:35to the agent that has the least negative value.
- 00:17:37Imagine that you have [inaudible] here.
- 00:17:39And what it does is,
- 00:17:40it will increase the income subsidy of the first agent up until the point where their partial value matches
- 00:17:46the partial value the second agent.
- 00:17:48Then agent one and two together, up until the point where they match the
- 00:17:52next person or the next people, in this case, and it keeps going until you've assisted everyone
- 00:17:58Or you've run out of your budget, right?
- 00:18:01And so, because 'phi' is strictly convex,
- 00:18:03we have an optimal solution.
- 00:18:05This kind of, this water filling algorithm gives us the optimal solution
- 00:18:08But what's also interesting about this, is that it gives us a way to index the agents.
- 00:18:13So it gives us these partial values as a sort of priority index
- 00:18:17and it says go with first,
- 00:18:18the first agent and then
- 00:18:19the first and the second agent. First, second, and third agent and so on.
- 00:18:23And it induces this ordering on the agents.
- 00:18:26And that value is different from the agents income. It's something different, right?
- 00:18:31So you might ask, "what if I just order the people just by their income?"
- 00:18:34If I just went from the person has the lowest income
- 00:18:36to the person that has the highest income,
- 00:18:38and that was the ordering that I was going to use rather than this other thing that you have computed.
- 00:18:42And so, a question that we asked here is, well how different can these two orderings be?
- 00:18:47Right? How different can our priority index, that is going to do the optimal thing
- 00:18:52in this particular setting versus just the index that would use people's income,
- 00:18:57how different can those be?
- 00:18:59And as it turns out, I can give you a very simple example.
- 00:19:02You can quickly write this down and verify it if you'd like,
- 00:19:05that shows that the orderings can be the exact reverses of one another.
- 00:19:08So, if you were just saying,
- 00:19:10I'm gonna start with a person that has a lowest income and I'm gonna then go to that person
- 00:19:13has the highest income.
- 00:19:15You might actually be doing the exact reverse of
- 00:19:17what the sort of the optimization problem here would tell you to do.
- 00:19:23And so, we won't get into this, but we actually find that we can find a lower bound of 'root n' here
- 00:19:30that shows that our optimal algorithm versus any algorithm that only uses income
- 00:19:35can actually have this sort of this gap
- 00:19:38that we've been able to account for in this in this lemma.
- 00:19:41So this kind of reminds us of...yeah?
- 00:19:43Audience: I'm sorry but could you give us the intuition behind 'beta' again?
- 00:19:46Abebe: Yeah, so the 'beta' is just the arrival rate.
- 00:19:48So it's how quickly you're experiencing...that I expected you to experience shocks, right?
- 00:19:56So then, this basically tells us that you know
- 00:19:59These things you can have substantial differences.
- 00:20:01In this case, sort of like optimal, the exact reverses.
- 00:20:03And it kind of reminds us of what we saw earlier.
- 00:20:06That, maybe income only measurements are not
- 00:20:09accurately capturing the magnitude of disadvantage.
- 00:20:11Maybe they're not necessarily the best ways to to order things in, at least in this particular setting.
- 00:20:16But there's a lot of other dimensions to this question.
- 00:20:18The second is, we were minimizing for the expected number of people that experience ruin in the min-sum objective,
- 00:20:24but what if you went for a min-max subjective?
- 00:20:26A min-max subjective would say, I want to minimize...
- 00:20:32I want to minimize, the maximum ruin probability that I see.
- 00:20:35Not maximize the minimum probability I see. You're going the opposite direction.
- 00:20:39You're trying to help the person who is the most susceptible to to experiencing ruin.
- 00:20:43That's a different objective function.
- 00:20:45And, as it turns out, in this particular setting we have a very similar solution where you order the agents.
- 00:20:50You have a natural priority ordering,
- 00:20:52You just do this Greedy water-filling algorithm and you have an optimal solution.
- 00:20:58And in that setting, we find that the exact same example that I mentioned to you earlier,
- 00:21:02also gives you that the orderings can be the exact reverses of one another.
- 00:21:06So, even though you're solving an optimization problem optimally for one objective versus a second objective,
- 00:21:12It can actually tell you to help entirely disjoint sets of people, right?
- 00:21:16So, that's another implication of this.
- 00:21:19And the third, is the intervention that we looked at.
- 00:21:22We were giving out income subsidies
- 00:21:23but you could instead imagine giving out as sort of a one-time upfront wealth subsidy that changes your
- 00:21:29kind of y-intercept there and that's it.
- 00:21:31That's an entirely different type of intervention.
- 00:21:34And for that, we look at another special case.
- 00:21:36The case where, you know, your shocks are drawn from an exponential distribution
- 00:21:39and we find that you can solve it optimally.
- 00:21:41It has its natural indexing and, you see where I'm going with this, again,
- 00:21:45you have people that are ordered in the exact reverse orderings under one setting versus another.
- 00:21:53So why does this matter?
- 00:21:54This matters because, it has kind of takeaways that are broader than this particular question.
- 00:21:59In this particular question,
- 00:22:01We're seeing that what information you're taking into account about families,
- 00:22:05can significantly change who you help.
- 00:22:07It tells us that, how you're setting this objective functions can really change how you allocate things.
- 00:22:12And, I'll highlight here that a lot of times when we set objective functions in public sector settings,
- 00:22:17we put not as much thought into it as we should.
- 00:22:21And yet, here's a very simple optimization problem that I can show you where it's doing the exact opposite under one setting versus another.
- 00:22:27And a lot of times when we think about setting objective functions, we say we want to help the most number of families.
- 00:22:32What do you mean by help? What do you mean by the most number of families?
- 00:22:35These are questions that we need to quantify.
- 00:22:37And it also says that the intervention type matters.
- 00:22:40So, there are some families that are very receptive to some types of interventions and not others.
- 00:22:45There's a question back there. Yeah?
- 00:22:47Audience: (inaudible)
- 00:22:53Abebe: Yeah, so, I'm not going to get into it in this paper, because it's a sort of a theory driven paper,
- 00:22:58but we an applied work right now
- 00:23:01that was sure test by by the Columbia population Research Center, where they have a longitudinal study measuring
- 00:23:07different shocks that people are experiencing.
- 00:23:10But actually, this is a very active area of research and economics,
- 00:23:13So, like if I tell you, you know, I got a parking ticket. How much does that cost me?
- 00:23:18I don't drive, so it's like $35? I don't know what how much it cost. Let's say 35 dollars.
- 00:23:23Okay, you'd say 35 dollars.
- 00:23:24Audience: That's a very cheap parking ticket (laughter)
- 00:23:25Abebe: Is that? Okay.
- 00:23:28I don't (drive), I just walk.
- 00:23:29So, but actually what they found is there is this recent work from economics.
- 00:23:32It's like in the past year that showed that a parking ticket,
- 00:23:35for low-income families, is actually more like five hundred dollars, right?
- 00:23:38If you're really taking into account, not just that they got a parking ticket, now, they have to go and pay it,
- 00:23:43they have to take time off, like they're all these things that happen
- 00:23:45And so if you quantify that it's much higher.
- 00:23:46So it's a really good question that you're asking and an active area of research
- 00:23:50where I think we can actually make contributions as well and just measuring things.
- 00:23:54Yeah. Thanks for asking that. Yes?
- 00:23:56Audience: So why wouldn't you just intercede when a family falls below the crisis threshold?
- 00:24:00Abebe: Yeah, so it's expensive, right?
- 00:24:02I think that just to kind of monitor people and say I will intervene and when you've experienced ruin
- 00:24:07There may be less political will, right?
- 00:24:09You know, we talk about things like if we had universal housing vouchers,
- 00:24:13Then people would just not be homeless or you know, that would mitigate that but it's it's harder
- 00:24:18Audience: So a bunch of public interventions have monitored pipelines into homelessness, and Peter Stephenson.
- 00:24:22One of those pipelines is triggered. Yeah, it's job loss or medical emergency or
- 00:24:28you know, exit foster care.
- 00:24:31Abebe: Yeah. Oh, so you're saying like when I experienced a shock? Why don't we intervene there?
- 00:24:35Audience: yeah
- 00:24:35Abebe: Yeah, so I think it's just expensive to do that,
- 00:24:38and then people might also have less kind of
- 00:24:42willingness to do that because they think,
- 00:24:44whatever, we all get sick. I don't know but but I agree with you.
- 00:24:47I think, thinking about the timing of our intervention is...
- 00:24:50Audience: This may be on a...(inaudible)...but my impression of homelessness is that
- 00:24:53preventing it is much less expensive than mitigating it once occurs.
- 00:24:56Abebe: I completely agree. We have a lot of evidence that that is the case.
- 00:24:57Audience: So what the...(inaudible)...families in San Francisco does is, for example,
- 00:24:59is to give your landlord two months of rent
- 00:25:02when you experience a shock.
- 00:25:04Abebe: Yeah.
- 00:25:05So, we're trying to help provide evidence, actually, for that kind of stuff with the applied work that we're doing
- 00:25:09By showing that if you intervene earlier, it's less expensive and then people don't have to be traumatized to be homeless.
- 00:25:17Or by being close to being homeless and kind of, yeah, I completely agree.
- 00:25:21So, I appreciate...I am at UW
- 00:25:24I see, I see what you guys are saying earlier. I appreciate this crowd.
- 00:25:27I really do because, yeah,
- 00:25:29I think we can actually support (and) provide further evidence that
- 00:25:32When you intervene matters. The kind of intervention matters. How you set these objective function matter.
- 00:25:38And I think that is a welcomed contribution brought more broadly
- 00:25:42Which is, I guess, I'll continue to talk and you'll see that this is something I also feel quite strongly about,
- 00:25:46But thank you for asking that.
- 00:25:49So good. All right, so we we saw this simpler example, right?
- 00:25:52But we can step back. We like optimization. We're math people
- 00:25:55So we can look at this more general setting where we drop a lot of the
- 00:25:58assumptions that we've set here.
- 00:26:00So we assume that you can have arbitrary income and wealth.
- 00:26:03We assume that the shocks can be drawn from a general distribution
- 00:26:06We don't even imagine that it has a compact representation
- 00:26:08We'll just say that, it's kind of, you know, you can access it in this (inaudible) fashion
- 00:26:12And we also imagine that you can have negative drift. Meaning that your ruin probability can be one.
- 00:26:18So why is that trickier?
- 00:26:20It's trickier because imagine basically that you're someone who's ruined probabilities once
- 00:26:24So we have negative drift.
- 00:26:26And I give you an income subsidy.
- 00:26:28Your drifts become slightly less negative, but your ruin probabilities stays one.
- 00:26:31So it's only when your drift kind of breaks even, right?
- 00:26:36When it's a zero that you see people's ruined ability responding to this income subsidy that you're giving.
- 00:26:44So this characteristic, basically gives us, it puts us in a situation where
- 00:26:49our objective function is not convex,
- 00:26:51so the optimization problem ends up being NP hard.
- 00:26:54So we can't use the sort of the greedy algorithm that we saw earlier to solve it.
- 00:26:59But in this setting we find that we can still actually give an FPTAS, a fully polynomial time approximation scheme,
- 00:27:04for them in some objective, which is sort of the best that we could hope for in this setting
- 00:27:09without making further assumptions to the problem.
- 00:27:12And in the interest of time, I won't go into the proof,
- 00:27:15But it looks a lot like FPTAS for a knapsack via dynamic programming
- 00:27:18and I encourage you to look at the paper if you're interested in taking more of a look.
- 00:27:24So, this example that I showed you is for...
- 00:27:27It's for improving access to opportunity of minimizing poverty or you know,
- 00:27:31eviction, all these things,
- 00:27:33by using allocation of societal resources.
- 00:27:36But we've talked about how, you know, a lot of this challenge is presented by the fact that
- 00:27:41we have a fixed budget.
- 00:27:42If we didn't have a fixed budget,
- 00:27:43then we can just get people infinite money and then we would be fine .
- 00:27:45And information, in a way, is that setting.
- 00:27:48Information is free. We can just distribute information
- 00:27:50and if we know that it helps people and we know it does in a lot of settings, then you would be fine.
- 00:27:56So think about, let's say, access information and health.
- 00:27:59We know that if you're thinking about health, let's say,
- 00:28:02HIV and AIDS in Africa, which is what I'll talk about.
- 00:28:04If you knew when to get tested, where to get tested,
- 00:28:08how to manage the disease, if you're an HIV infected individual,
- 00:28:12how did kind of care for yourself, things like that.
- 00:28:15Then we would have a lot more control over the burden of the disease
- 00:28:19and it would not be as big of an issue as it is
- 00:28:22across the world and especially across the African continent, right?
- 00:28:25So information is this
- 00:28:27free resource that in a lot of ways is actually very hard to think about
- 00:28:31when you're thinking about information and provision.
- 00:28:35So what creates the sort of information bottleneck?
- 00:28:38Well, there's a lot of work, actually,
- 00:28:39that's come out of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
- 00:28:42Here the Global Burden of Disease Study (and) the Global Health Institute here.
- 00:28:46So there's a lot of work, actually, that's come out of UW specifically, but the Seattle area more generally that shows
- 00:28:52that data is very hard to come by. Health data is very hard to come by.
- 00:28:57So forget information needs for a second. If you're thinking about just
- 00:29:01How many people died of AIDS in Africa last year. How many people died of AIDS in Ethiopia, where I'm from, last year?
- 00:29:05That's very difficult information to come by.
- 00:29:08Because a lot of times, the data is collected in a sort of very ad-hoc manner,
- 00:29:12It's not collected exhaustively.
- 00:29:15There's a lot of errors in it. It's not digitized.
- 00:29:17There's all sorts of issues here that make it a challenge.
- 00:29:20And so there's a lot of kind of top-down
- 00:29:22approaches here that try to aggregate as much of the data as possible to try to get a sense of the burden of
- 00:29:28diseases, including HIV and AIDS.
- 00:29:30There's also a lot of like bottom-up approaches that use manual surveys to
- 00:29:35focus on specific populations and try to get at that information.
- 00:29:39But if you're thinking about health information needs, that's very nuanced data,
- 00:29:43And that kind of data is very challenging to come by.
- 00:29:46So, what we did with some colleagues at Microsoft Research,
- 00:29:49where I started this project as an intern, and some folks at Stony Brook University
- 00:29:54was, we looked at the data that we had, which was search data.
- 00:29:57And we thought about how we can help bridge information gaps.
- 00:30:02Try to understand what information people are seeking and how those information needs are being met
- 00:30:07related to HIV and AIDS across the African continent.
- 00:30:11So, just to give you a quick sense of the data, we basically looked at an 18 months period
- 00:30:17and we looked at all 54 nations in Africa.
- 00:30:21We looked at all searches that contain the word HIV or AIDS.
- 00:30:25And what we're really interested in was the content of the searches, right?
- 00:30:28So we really wanted to understand what information people are seeking and how those information needs are being met.
- 00:30:33And so, we used a mix of topic modeling.
- 00:30:36Specifically LDA and sort of information retrieval techniques.
- 00:30:40And in particular, when you run LDA,
- 00:30:42so, you're basically imagining that you're inputting a set of documents in our cases and our
- 00:30:47individual search queries.
- 00:30:48And the output is sort of a cluster of semantically linked words.
- 00:30:53What we were able to find was that, some of the topics that you see here,
- 00:30:56are things that you would expect to see, right?
- 00:30:58So we found a topic related to symptoms.
- 00:31:00It had words like node, lymph node, swollen, sore, symptom sore, things like that.
- 00:31:05There was a topic related to drugs, to breastfeeding.
- 00:31:09We had a hundred topics and so the average
- 00:31:11topic prevalence would be one percent.
- 00:31:13So some topics, like symptoms, were more prevalent than others. Some topics were less prevalent.
- 00:31:19But, this wasn't the only...
- 00:31:22Some of the topics that we saw were kind of things that we expected to see but others were actually very...
- 00:31:27Are topics that we know are very hard to survey.
- 00:31:30So we found a topic related to stigma and discrimination
- 00:31:34It had words like: stigma issues, ethical, legal, workplace, things like that.
- 00:31:38So these are individuals, let's say, asking for things like:
- 00:31:42"I'm HIV positive, can my boss fire me?" and unfortunately, the answer is actually yes
- 00:31:47in some countries, in Africa.
- 00:31:49So these are people asking these very hard to survey things, but they're doing it
- 00:31:53online to try to get information about the disease and protections that they have.
- 00:31:59There were topics related to natural cures and remedies, related to healthy lifestyles.
- 00:32:03So just to see a sample of the natural cures topic,
- 00:32:07we've blanked out personally identifying information,
- 00:32:09so the stars just mean that it's a name that we got rid of,
- 00:32:13but this were things like:
- 00:32:15people asking for a prophet, whomever heals AIDS or HIV, pray a healing prayer for HIV.
- 00:32:22But then also things like honey bee venom cures AIDS,
- 00:32:24lemon baking soda cures AIDS, things like that.
- 00:32:26So why am I showing showing you this?
- 00:32:29The reason is, because when we saw this we thought,
- 00:32:31"Wow. Surely people know about this, people are trying and mitigate it."
- 00:32:36And so we found as many papers and blogs and things on this as we would like.
- 00:32:41And some of these things were known.
- 00:32:42So that there are certain prophets in Nigeria who cure AIDS and HIV like this
- 00:32:46or this is a belief that people have and people know that people have this belief.
- 00:32:50But other things like,
- 00:32:51lemon baking soda cures AIDS is a search that we saw a lot.
- 00:32:56And yet there was no information on it online.
- 00:32:58And so, in a sense, looking at the influx of searches that are coming can show you
- 00:33:04kind of emerging trends that are happening,
- 00:33:07and maybe you can use that as an opportunity to supplement surveys that you already sending out.
- 00:33:11It may be thinking about ways to mitigate that.
- 00:33:14And so, we've already been able to brief several folks across the continent
- 00:33:18including the Ministry of Health in Ethiopia and the Ministry of Health in Ghana
- 00:33:22and also other, actually I've talked to something like 50 health people, for this project.
- 00:33:27So we've been able to kind of share this result with them to see whether that can help supplement survey design
- 00:33:34and health across the continent.
- 00:33:36But we can also zoom back out and we can look at the Natural Cures topic or the Stigma topic and
- 00:33:41see whether it shows relative popularity among certain groups than others.
- 00:33:46So for instance, looking at the Stigma topic,
- 00:33:49we wanted to see whether it was more or less popular in some countries
- 00:33:53and whether that seems to be associated with the HIV prevalence rates.
- 00:33:56And we find that, indeed, there's sort of a huge variance in how popular this topic is.
- 00:34:02Some countries search for
- 00:34:04topics related to stigma more than others
- 00:34:07so the x-axis here has the adult HIV prevalence rate and the y-axis has the
- 00:34:12topic popularity of the Stigma topic
- 00:34:13and we see that there's actually quite a robust, I'm not going to go into the details,
- 00:34:16but there's a robust sort of positive association.
- 00:34:19And this is something that's actually been kind of studied in the public health literature,
- 00:34:23people believe that for diseases that are stigmatized,
- 00:34:26people tend to get tested less, they tend to adhere to drugs less,
- 00:34:29they might kind of engage in more risky behavior that might transmit the disease.
- 00:34:33And it was interesting to just see that in our data set as well and kind of
- 00:34:37provide supporting evidence for this belief that exists
- 00:34:41and these results that exists in the public health literature.
- 00:34:44But we're also really interested in what information people are getting.
- 00:34:48So far we've been looking at what information people are seeking but what information are they getting,
- 00:34:51and are there variants in the quality of content that's shown to users online.
- 00:34:56We don't know what information people are getting offline, but we can look at what people are seeing online.
- 00:35:00So we took a random sample of
- 00:35:03web pages and we had them evaluated by folks who have graduate level training in public health or medicine.
- 00:35:08At least a few former, actually, specifically working in HIV and AIDS
- 00:35:13and they rated the webpages, the content of the web pages, like nothing else.
- 00:35:17But just the content of the web pages for relevance, accuracy, and objectivity.
- 00:35:23And what we found was that there's disparities, huge disparities,
- 00:35:27in the access to quality health content,
- 00:35:31and some of it is not surprising.
- 00:35:33Like the natural cures rates at about 1.5 out of 5,
- 00:35:36meaning that it has serious issues across each of the three metrics that we were looking at.
- 00:35:42Not surprising but...
- 00:35:43But we found that also Symptoms, which is one of the most prevalent topics that we have,
- 00:35:48only rates at about 2.7 out of 5.
- 00:35:50So this is a very prevalent topic that people are searching for and yet,
- 00:35:55more times than not, people are not getting high quality content by eyes measured by health experts.
- 00:36:03So this gives us sort of an opportunity to think about where there might be interventions.
- 00:36:06And actually we can look at, before we even actually jump to these interventions,
- 00:36:10We can look at like a sample. So,
- 00:36:12"Does garlic cure HIV?" was one of the most prevalent searches that we saw.
- 00:36:16And, this has changed since I started giving this talk.
- 00:36:19And I won't claim causality because it's really not sure, but
- 00:36:22what happened is, basically, we searched for this on Bing and on Google
- 00:36:26You search for, "does garlic cure HIV" and the top website that you see here
- 00:36:30is a website called "miracleofgarlic.com."
- 00:36:34And this was a website that I, with zero health training, could tell had some a-scientific information.
- 00:36:41And it's not just the first website. It's highlighted as an answer.
- 00:36:45And this is by no means the last example that you would see here.
- 00:36:49And so we have, you know, people's experiences actually
- 00:36:53it's not just the quality content that you're getting but actually the full experience can look quite different.
- 00:36:57Because instead, if you search for "Antiretroviral Therapy HIV,"
- 00:37:00not only is the first website that you see one that was rated quite highly
- 00:37:03but actually suggests on the right hand side management of HIV.
- 00:37:07It asks you for...
- 00:37:09it like suggests things like "tables of antiretroviral drug interactions,"
- 00:37:13"table of FDA-approved antivirals and regimens " and things like that.
- 00:37:17So, it's not just the top website that you see here, the full experience can be quite different
- 00:37:22And so we have some sort of information retrieval approached here to try to quantify
- 00:37:26user behavior and satisfaction depending on the topic.
- 00:37:30But going back to interventions,
- 00:37:32which is really what we're interested in, we think about what is this ecosystem?
- 00:37:37Where might there be opportunities intervene?
- 00:37:39The first is just the topic that people are searching.
- 00:37:42So, maybe some searches are more susceptible to
- 00:37:45The kind of information that we might not like than others,
- 00:37:49We have less control over that.
- 00:37:51But there are other places in this cycle that we can intervene.
- 00:37:53So one is, when I put in a search,
- 00:37:55The search engine itself actually does a sort of back-end processing before it maps my search to web pages.
- 00:38:01So, let's say if you type "does garlic cure HIV," but you misspell garlic.
- 00:38:05Then, it might automatically check your spelling and change it in the background
- 00:38:10before mapping it.
- 00:38:11And we found that there's actually
- 00:38:14significant disparities in how much back-end processing the search engine was doing.
- 00:38:18We don't know the cause, but we think that this is an opportunity,
- 00:38:21maybe to examine, whether there might be sort of algorithmic bias issues
- 00:38:25that are making some searches,
- 00:38:27ones where you do more back-end processing than others.
- 00:38:30And the other one is that, even if the search engine was doing the best job possible
- 00:38:35however you want to define it. If you restricted yourself,
- 00:38:38let's say if you said, "I want to look this Moringa plant to cure HIV
- 00:38:42but I only want to see webpages from the CDC, the NIH, WHO," higher authority, websites like that.
- 00:38:48There might actually be zero webpages
- 00:38:49And in fact, we tested for this. We checked for, restricting to higher authority websites
- 00:38:54and a lot of times, there were a few, or none, web pages for some searches than others.
- 00:38:59And so there is, four times or five times or seven times as many web pages available for
- 00:39:05searches related to antiretroviral drugs versus or just searches related to natural cures and remedies
- 00:39:11and this is precisely what folks at data and society call data voids.
- 00:39:15When something is not available,
- 00:39:17that's actually an opportunity for sort of misinformation or a different type of information that you don't want
- 00:39:21to fill that in and fill in that void, and maybe that's an opportunity to intervene.
- 00:39:25So, we've checked with folks at the NIH about this
- 00:39:29because we think that the webpages, the mere presence of the webpages itself,
- 00:39:32might be a sort of intervention.
- 00:39:34And in fact, actually,
- 00:39:36I've been able to work with folks at the
- 00:39:38NIH over the calendar year, the 2019 calendar year,
- 00:39:41to think about this interface of health and an artificial intelligence specifically.
- 00:39:46I was really interested in health disparities and we spent the year putting together
- 00:39:52Basically kind of like a comprehensive report and then a set of recommendations that we had.
- 00:39:57One of these was using data sheets for
- 00:40:01data sets which is work that Jamie has done and this report was unanimously approved.
- 00:40:05So to see a bunch of data sheets and the next thing, you know,
- 00:40:08however long it takes for folks to actually start implementing it
- 00:40:11but a bunch of other recommendations.
- 00:40:13So this report is online if you all want to take a look here.
- 00:40:17And, how much time do I have? Oh
- 00:40:20Okay, all right, so ongoing & further directions.
- 00:40:23So one thing that I've been quite interested in these days especially, is the topic of education.
- 00:40:29Because in education, you get to think about a lot of allocation problems
- 00:40:32But also it's primarily an information type problem, right?
- 00:40:36Because that's where students spend the most amount of time, you know, where they get a lot of information
- 00:40:40so in a sense
- 00:40:41This is like both interventions bundled into one.
- 00:40:44And there's a lot of resources that we can think about allocating here.
- 00:40:47One, that is quite common, is matching students to public universities.
- 00:40:52So in Ethiopia, where I'm from, every year something like
- 00:40:55300,000 people
- 00:40:56take the National Exam in 12th grade and many of them want to be assigned
- 00:41:00to one of the 48 public institutions across the country.
- 00:41:04And the country has had a sort of a more ad-hoc system for assigning students to public schools in this setting.
- 00:41:11And so they came to us and they said we want to improve the matching system.
- 00:41:15This is us meaning me and Basiliyos Betru who's a grad student at Jimma University in Ethiopia.
- 00:41:20They said we want to improve the allocation system, can you help us?
- 00:41:24And initially, we thought, "okay, this looks a lot like mechanism design for school choice," right?
- 00:41:28There's been people who've worked on this for quite some time,
- 00:41:30people who have won Nobel Prizes for this work on school choice and it's an active area of research.
- 00:41:35There's a recent work that i presented at SODA with Jason Hartline,
- 00:41:42who's a graduate of UW, and Richard Cole and Vasita Gkatzelis
- 00:41:45that looks at designing, kind of this, one-sided matching
- 00:41:50That looks at solving this one-sided matching problem.
- 00:41:53So there's been quite a bit of work in this space here.
- 00:41:56But, what we found was that
- 00:41:58they had a set of constraints and requirements that make this problem quite different
- 00:42:01so they asked us for, okay constraints are not surprising,
- 00:42:05special accommodations maybe not so surprising,
- 00:42:07but they also had these diversity requirements.
- 00:42:09They said, we want to make sure that we don't have too many people of a given gender, of a given region
- 00:42:15from the same, whether private or public, institution all ending up at the same place.
- 00:42:19So you now have this matching problem where you have these very rich diversity requirements here.
- 00:42:25And it has to get solved in such a way that you have kind of diverse programs and diverse classrooms.
- 00:42:32So this is something that I've been actively working on.
- 00:42:36Another thing that they've asked, that I think is quite interesting, is that they also said
- 00:42:40every year we do this and we get so many complaints.
- 00:42:44There so many appeals because people didn't get matched to their preferred schools.
- 00:42:47And so, when we assign them to schools,
- 00:42:50we want them to also know why they didn't get a higher ranked item for themselves, right?
- 00:42:53And so, this has got me thinking about
- 00:42:56mechanism design and explainability of mechanism design here.
- 00:42:59Can we also provide an explanation to say,
- 00:43:02"Hey, you didn't get into your first or second choice because
- 00:43:04you didn't score highly enough for people that went to public schools in your region"
- 00:43:09or something like this that's providing partial or maybe a complete explanation here,
- 00:43:12which I think is quite interesting.
- 00:43:14I've also been thinking about the allocation problems from the income subsidy project
- 00:43:20that we were discussing a little bit earlier. Thinking about dynamic subsidies.
- 00:43:25There's also work that we're doing on saving circles which are sort of
- 00:43:29social insurance programs that are very common developing world contexts.
- 00:43:32And this is work that I'm doing with Sam Taggart at Oberlin and
- 00:43:35Chris Ikeokwu, who's an undergraduate at Oberlin University, who's doing really wonderful work here.
- 00:43:40So there's a lot of really interesting theoretical and also
- 00:43:43more applied projects that we can think about.
- 00:43:46I had mentioned earlier also the work that we're doing using the poverty tracker dataset
- 00:43:51that I had mentioned and we're looking at how different types of shocks might be
- 00:43:57helpful in understanding or predicting poverty
- 00:44:00and whether some types of shocks seem to matter more for different groups than others.
- 00:44:04So we find things like,
- 00:44:05that financial shocks, like an income decrease or a major expense or a benefit decrease,
- 00:44:10seems to impact women a lot more
- 00:44:13whereas, crime and police stop related type shocks
- 00:44:16tend to impact men a lot more right?
- 00:44:18So this is work that we're doing that's on the more applied vein.
- 00:44:24And more broadly, I'm working on a bunch of projects related to this theme that we saw earlier on
- 00:44:31designing and analyzing and deploying algorithmic and computational techniques.
- 00:44:35But in thinking about this,
- 00:44:37It's also important to step back and think about whether computing is actually the solution here.
- 00:44:41Whether maybe actually we're causing more problems than we are solving
- 00:44:44and is there a way for us to make contributions that is actually working towards fundamental social change
- 00:44:51rather than maybe undoing some other work that were that has already been done or
- 00:44:54maybe it's just not actually contributing anything.
- 00:44:57And so, what we did was we basically,
- 00:45:00this problem was bothering us
- 00:45:02so with some colleagues at Cornell we turned what was a,
- 00:45:06spirited conversation,
- 00:45:07let's say. (laughs)
- 00:45:09A spirited conversation into this paper that I'm quite proud of, where we
- 00:45:13Thought through all their computing examples that we've seen, that we've thought, from our community
- 00:45:18We're proud that our community has been able to contribute this. Why are we proud of it?
- 00:45:22Is there a way for us to kind of think about the framework of where computing can play a role.
- 00:45:27And we came up with four specific rules that it can play:
- 00:45:30One, is that as a diagnostic, computing can help us measure,
- 00:45:33precisely measure,
- 00:45:35Social problems and especially those that might have a technical dimension.
- 00:45:38We're actually kind of uniquely positioned to say,
- 00:45:40Look people are getting really bad information online and here's an opportunity for us to try to address it.
- 00:45:45But I mean, this is one example that you all have seen,
- 00:45:48but there's many many others and I encourage you to read the paper to
- 00:45:51see how the different projects actually have been able to serve as a diagnostic.
- 00:45:56Another one, is that computing requires that you're very explicit about your input and your goals right?
- 00:46:01And so in that sense, it actually
- 00:46:03formalizes how we're going to understand the social problem
- 00:46:06and what solutions might be feasible or that we should be striving for right?
- 00:46:11And so maybe it's an opportunity, actually, to say look you can think about this optimization problem
- 00:46:15in all these different ways, but maybe, actually,
- 00:46:17what you should be thinking about is whether you have enough resources available to begin with.
- 00:46:20And so we can be part of that conversation.
- 00:46:23We have two other roles, I won't get into them, but
- 00:46:24Computing as a rebuttal and Computing as a synecdoche
- 00:46:27are two roles that we also thought about.
- 00:46:30So I highly encourage you to take a look at this paper
- 00:46:32It's an evolving idea. Right? So if you have ideas here, please reach out.
- 00:46:36I'm always happy to chatter (and) hear what you have to say.
- 00:46:40And I'll close here by giving a shout out to
- 00:46:43The Mechanism Design for Social Good community that has been, I think,
- 00:46:46doing more responsible work in this space.
- 00:46:49This is a group that we started as a as a reading group.
- 00:46:53So this was an online reading group. You'll see here,
- 00:46:55Do you see Anna at the back?
- 00:46:59And this was a reading group. Actually two people here don't belong to the reading group,
- 00:47:03they're Mile's parents.
- 00:47:03But, everyone else was in the reading group and we were we met online for about a year
- 00:47:08We were able to start a workshop series
- 00:47:10So we were all co-present physically at the same place and this picture was taken on that day.
- 00:47:15But the group has grown, you know,
- 00:47:16I started with Kira Goldner, whom you all know here,
- 00:47:19doing really phenomenal work now at Columbia with Tim Roughgarden.
- 00:47:22And I've been running it with Irene Lo at Stanford and Ana-Andreea Stoica,
- 00:47:27and the group has grown quite significantly.
- 00:47:29We now have an online colloquium series,
- 00:47:32where we've been able to highlight really wonderful work that we that we really like,
- 00:47:35we've had a technical workshop series at EC,
- 00:47:37we've had tutorials at WINE and COMPASS.
- 00:47:40We have, you know, research folks and practitioners from over 100 institutions in 20 countries.
- 00:47:47We're really trying to take a global perspective on a lot of these problems.
- 00:47:50We've been funded by the generous folks that you see at the bottom here,
- 00:47:54and one I'll highlight especially is that,
- 00:47:57We've had an online working group that is doing really domain specific work,
- 00:48:02we've had eight of them.
- 00:48:03A couple of them are paused and a couple of them just came online this past semester,
- 00:48:06but really trying to do engaged work where we have people, not just in computer science,
- 00:48:11but in economics, sociology, public policy, but then also people
- 00:48:14working at like, the City of Austin and City of Knoxville,
- 00:48:18like all sorts of places really engaged in this space and
- 00:48:23the three sort of themes that have
- 00:48:25kind of emerged out of these working groups have been really driving a lot of the work that I do here including,
- 00:48:30analyzing different forms of disadvantage,
- 00:48:33being able to explain different outcomes, and
- 00:48:36understanding the effects of objective functions, and
- 00:48:37the role of information in improving access to opportunity.
- 00:48:41So, I'll just, I'll stop here.
- 00:48:43I'll encourage you to take a look at MD4SG if any of this strikes your fancy and
- 00:48:48feel free to reach out and thank you so much.
- 00:48:50(clapping)
- 00:48:57Questions?
- 00:49:01Audience: You presented the slide where you had this
- 00:49:03"cure for AIDS was garlic" which was one of the preliminary searches on these websites
- 00:49:07and we said that when making filters for these authentic websites,
- 00:49:12they don't have any information on that
- 00:49:14And that's a place for filling in this information which is like "garlic is a cure for HIV"
- 00:49:21Which I believe is not true. (laughter)
- 00:49:23Abebe: Okay (laughs) one on one intervention. I can have a conversation with you. Yeah? Good.
- 00:49:29Audience: So what do you think of the solution of that? Should these,
- 00:49:32high-quality websites track the kind of misinformation that is flowing in their societies
- 00:49:38and address them on their website or something?
- 00:49:42Abebe: Yes, yeah, so it's very specific to the problem that you're looking at,
- 00:49:46So I'll give you an example that's a little bit of a disheartening example
- 00:49:49So when there was the Ebola outbreak in 2014, or whenever that was,
- 00:49:54the government, pretty sure this was Liberia.
- 00:49:58So the government of Liberia was telling people, you know:
- 00:50:01wash your hands, don't touch the dead, like all these things that we know
- 00:50:04could help mitigate the transmission of Ebola.
- 00:50:07And what happened was, because the government was giving out this information,
- 00:50:12there were ethnic groups that felt that,
- 00:50:15that had already kind of felt alienated just in the country anyway,
- 00:50:18but the government was telling them to do something that they felt was against their beliefs or religion.
- 00:50:21And so they actually kind of resisted against that in a much more explicit way, right?
- 00:50:26And so they were not as susceptible to it.
- 00:50:29So I highlight that as a maybe an extreme example
- 00:50:31But I think it is an example that says that, you have to think about what the disease is,
- 00:50:35who's trying to do the intervention, why they're trying to do it,
- 00:50:38have you tested it to see that people actually respond well to it, right?
- 00:50:41And I will say that you know, I'm not in information retrieval,
- 00:50:45but because of this project I've had to think a lot about information retrieval in the African context,
- 00:50:50and there's very little work there.
- 00:50:52So we know very little about how African individuals engage with online information
- 00:50:56So I think that's an opportunity to do a lot of work.
- 00:50:59But thank you for asking that.
- 00:51:02Audience: You mentioned one of the correlations here, that the higher the stigma, the more...
- 00:51:09Rediet Abebe: The HIV prevalence right?
- 00:51:10Audience: Right, I'm curious if you know anything about the correlation between
- 00:51:16the popularity of these natural (cures) or cures without any scientific evidence, as far as I know.
- 00:51:22And how strongly that correlates, perhaps, with like the cost of treatment in different countries?
- 00:51:29Rediet Abebe: Oh cost of treatment? Interesting.
- 00:51:30Audience: I'm curious about a number of different things that might be correlated with it.
- 00:51:34Cost of treatment is one,
- 00:51:35because I know cost of treatment can be astronomically different in different countries.
- 00:51:40Abebe: Yeah, so I haven't looked at that, that's a really good question.
- 00:51:42We've looked at what groups tend to search for this more than others.
- 00:51:47We found that older groups do. So that's something, right?
- 00:51:52And I think (inaudible) also, worth knowing right?
- 00:51:56Yeah, so we've looked at that,
- 00:51:58but I really appreciate that question actually about why
- 00:52:00people might be searching for it, because it might be more out of like,
- 00:52:03they don't have any other means and so,
- 00:52:06you can believe that nothing will cure it or you can believe that natural cures
- 00:52:11Yeah, it's an important important question. Yeah. Yes?
- 00:52:14Audience: Thank you for your talk.
- 00:52:15I had a specific question on when you were talking about
- 00:52:19giving recommendations for surveys for the Ministry of Health in Ghana and...
- 00:52:25Rediet Abebe: and in Ethiopa, yes that's right. Yes.
- 00:52:28Audience: I was wondering if you...(inaudible)
- 00:52:33Rediet Abebe: Yeah.
- 00:52:35Audience: We had that paper in 2009 on...(inaudible)...nature, completely failed to predict the trends on the flow of...(inaudible)
- 00:52:42Rediet Abebe: That's right it did
- 00:52:44Audience: So I feel like sometimes we are also having these big promises.
- 00:52:47Rediet Abebe: No, so I, I so appreciate that question.
- 00:52:50Yes, yes. It was at the end of your question. Sorry. I got very excited. Yeah so...
- 00:52:54Audience: (inaudible)...and how did you learn from that for this particular project?
- 00:52:59Rediet Abebe: I learned so much from it and I really appreciate that you're asking that question
- 00:53:02because that was, as you know, as computer scientist
- 00:53:04I was like, "oh something to predict, I'm gonna go predict it."
- 00:53:06And, before we did, we went and talked to folks across, you know,
- 00:53:10we talked to, I say across the continent because we talked to so many people.
- 00:53:14And they were just like, "Don't do that. We didn't ask for you to do that.
- 00:53:18First of all, we don't even have a good ground truth data,
- 00:53:20so, what are you exactly predicting? Because we know that HIV prevalence rates are really more of
- 00:53:25rule of thumb than an actual precise number and also,
- 00:53:28even if you were able to predict it very well, what qualitative insights
- 00:53:31could I walk away with that would change how I would allocate whatever intervention that I had?" Right?
- 00:53:35And so, that was a humbling moment when you go in and you're like,
- 00:53:38"I got this fancy badge, let me do my prediction."
- 00:53:40and they were like, "don't do that."
- 00:53:42But they did give us essentially this question, right? Because they said, "Look.
- 00:53:46We targeted education as an important way for us to mitigate the burden of diseases
- 00:53:51but it's really hard for us because we don't know what people
- 00:53:54are seeking and what they don't know. And so if you can help us bridge that gap, that would be very helpful."
- 00:54:00And so the way I think about this paper is basically as a sort of hypothesis generation.
- 00:54:04We're basically kind of giving like an existence proof
- 00:54:06I'm saying there exists 'x' number of people that are searching for "is garlic a cure HIV."
- 00:54:12It's a lower bound. We don't know
- 00:54:13what the actual number is, but you can say whether that number bothers you enough to intervene, right?
- 00:54:19And so, I think taking a step back and doing like a less fancy,
- 00:54:23but potentially more useful thing is something that we need to get better at.
- 00:54:27And I really appreciate that question. Thank you for asking that.
- 00:54:32Audience: So I have a question.
- 00:54:33For the first part of the powerpoint, so you are showing us the (inaudible) model to try to understand how you can really gauge poverty
- 00:54:43and allocate your project. Then you showed us a more complex model.
- 00:54:46But I think that when you actually try to apply it,
- 00:54:48How do you validate if the model we have developed
- 00:54:50is sufficiently accurate to actually model what is happening in the world?
- 00:54:54Rediet Abebe: Yeah, so I mean the model is so general,
- 00:54:57That I think the challenging question is not so much does the model capture,
- 00:55:00Well, I guess that is actually...no I take it back.
- 00:55:04So the model is fairly general
- 00:55:05if you just assume that the four things that I mentioned are the only things that matter
- 00:55:08and we assume that there's independence between
- 00:55:10shocks and things like that, right?
- 00:55:11In reality, we know that shocks are quite dependent actually,
- 00:55:14that if you just experience the medical expense
- 00:55:17You're more likely to experience one soon, or maybe something else will happen in your life.
- 00:55:20So the more data driven work we're doing that
- 00:55:23I mentioned towards the end is trying to kind of get at where
- 00:55:26some of the the failures of the model there might be.
- 00:55:28You could try to also think about fitting a model to a data set that we have here,
- 00:55:32but really the way I think about this project is basically saying,
- 00:55:36can I come up with something that's sophisticated enough that we can draw some sort of qualitative insights
- 00:55:40But simple enough that it's not really about the particulars of the model
- 00:55:43and still be able to make statements like,
- 00:55:45look how you're setting your objective function really matters, even in this very simple setting. Right?
- 00:55:49Certainly that's probably gonna carry over to more complex settings potentially also, right?
- 00:55:53So that's sort of how I think about it.
- 00:55:55I think translating theory to practice is...
- 00:56:00We haven't 100% figured it out, right?
- 00:56:03I think, yeah, I think translating applied research to practice, I think we figured out a lot more
- 00:56:08But yeah, I think there's still a place for theory here. Yeah.
- 00:56:12But we should talk more during dinner because
- 00:56:14I have more thoughts and I want to hear what you think as well. Yes?
- 00:56:18Audience: I'm curious, actually on this slide, with different intervention types,
- 00:56:23have you looked or do you know of any research
- 00:56:27which is actually looking at the combining of different types of interventions or if there's some...
- 00:56:34because it's clearly not linear. Like you can't just optimize one, like you have to combine.
- 00:56:40So if there is any...
- 00:56:41Rediet Abebe: So, mixing say like in Commonwealth subsidies or something or...
- 00:56:44Audience: Yes
- 00:56:45Abebe: Yeah, so actually I didn't present this result, but
- 00:56:47for a lot of the special cases that I mentioned, we can solve that optimally too.
- 00:56:51Like the mixture and doesn't change the math much.
- 00:56:54So I thought actually quite a bit about,
- 00:56:57what an income subsidy would map to, at least in the U.S.
- 00:57:00So like if you thought about food stamps
- 00:57:01That's a sort of income subsidy, because it's making it cheaper for you to buy food
- 00:57:05So you'll have more money left over.
- 00:57:07There's fewer wealth subsidies really.
- 00:57:10Yeah, like sort of fewer upfront, like one-time initial interventions that we give here.
- 00:57:19Yeah, so I haven't really thought about you know, how we can think about these mixes?
- 00:57:23But I have thought about the different types of income subsidies.
- 00:57:26If you're imagining basically, I'll give you an income subsidy
- 00:57:28But you can only use it for specific things enough for others
- 00:57:31Maybe there's interesting modeling questions to ask there. But yeah good question. Very good question
- 00:57:37Karlin: Maybe we should take the rest of the questions outside
- 00:57:39Rediet Abebe: Yeah, okay good.
- 00:57:40Anna Karlin: Thank you so much Redeit
- 00:57:41(clapping)
- Rediet Abebe
- AI
- social good
- poverty
- algorithmic techniques
- resource allocation
- information access
- disadvantaged communities
- income shocks
- public policy