How the French Army Compares to the British Army

00:30:03
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oKxczhzUXzw

Résumé

TLDRThe video provides a comprehensive comparison of the British and French armies, focusing on their differences and similarities, particularly in terms of modern warfare readiness. Presenter Michael Shuren shares his expertise and highlights that while the French army is larger and has seen success in modernization, both armies face significant challenges in terms of capability and resources. The analysis stresses the implications of the Ukraine conflict for NATO armies and concludes that despite their training and professionalism, neither army is prepared for sustained combat against a major adversary. Adaptation, resilience, and strategic investments are key themes discussed throughout the video.

A retenir

  • 👤 Presenter: Michael Shuren, military expert.
  • 🇬🇧 British Army size: ~73,000 regular troops.
  • 🇫🇷 French Army size: ~130,000 regular troops.
  • 🔧 French modernization efforts are more successful.
  • ⚖️ Both armies lack adequate resources for large-scale war.
  • 🛡️ Training and professionalism of soldiers are high.
  • 🚀 Need for advanced technologies and capabilities.
  • ⚔️ Both armies face challenges from the Ukraine conflict.
  • 💰 Stability of budget affects modernization success.
  • 🌍 Future readiness requires adaptability and resilience.

Chronologie

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    In this video, Michael Shuren discusses the comparative analysis of the British and French armies, stemming from viewer feedback on his previous video. He highlights the similarities in their challenges, particularly regarding their capacity for major land warfare against a peer competitor like Russia. The video is structured into four parts: credentials, differences, similarities, and conclusions on both armies' future paths.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    Shuren establishes his credentials, detailing his experience with the British military through institutions like the Rand Corporation and the United Services Institute. He notes his deeper expertise in the French military, citing his publications and contributions to understanding French military strategies and modernization efforts.

  • 00:10:00 - 00:15:00

    The key differences between the British and French armies are outlined, primarily focusing on their sizes: the French army is nearly twice as large as the British army. Shuren emphasizes that, while the French army is larger, it also is in better shape due to more successful modernization programs compared to the British army's troubled projects such as the Future Rapid Effects System (FRES).

  • 00:15:00 - 00:20:00

    In discussing modernization efforts, Shuren contrasts the French military's effective implementation of networked warfare technologies and modernization programs, such as Scorpion, with the British approach, which has struggled with delays and setbacks in modernization efforts, leading to gaps in capabilities on the battlefield.

  • 00:20:00 - 00:25:00

    Both armies share significant similarities, particularly in their insufficient capabilities for modern warfare. Key areas of concern include inadequate air defense, weapon systems, and logistical capabilities. Despite having advanced technology, both armies lack the mass required for prolonged engagements, leading to a reliance on quality over quantity, reminiscent of challenges faced during the Cold War.

  • 00:25:00 - 00:30:03

    Finally, Shuren concludes by reflecting on whether the inability to sustain large-scale conventional warfare truly matters in a modern context where nuclear threats exist. He cites Jean Dominique Merchet, advocating for resilience and adaptability rather than purely increasing military spending as a path forward for both the British and French armies.

Afficher plus

Carte mentale

Vidéo Q&R

  • What are the main differences between the British and French armies?

    The French army is nearly twice the size of the British army, has better modernization progress, and a more stable budget.

  • How are the British and French armies similar?

    Both armies face similar shortcomings in their capacities for modern warfare, including inadequate numbers of advanced weaponry and logistical challenges.

  • What challenges do both armies face in terms of modernization?

    Both armies struggle with outdated systems and insufficient production capacities for munitions and military hardware.

  • What are the implications of the Ukraine conflict for Western armies?

    The conflict has exposed capability gaps that both the British and French armies need to address urgently.

  • Can the British or French armies effectively conduct a large ground war?

    Neither is capable of sustaining a large war for long due to lack of numbers and sufficient resources.

  • What does the presenter recommend for the British and French armies?

    He emphasizes the need for resilience and adaptability rather than merely increased funding.

  • What is the significance of the Scorpion program?

    It represents a comprehensive modernization effort in the French army focusing on networked warfare technologies.

  • Why is the size of the armies important?

    Size impacts their capability to engage in lengthy or large-scale conflicts effectively.

  • What role did past military strategies play in current army readiness?

    The lack of focus on preparing for large-scale conflicts post-Cold War has left both armies under-equipped.

  • What is the overall conclusion regarding the armies' readiness?

    Both armies are high-quality forces but lack the necessary numbers and materials for sustained conflict against a major adversary.

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Défilement automatique:
  • 00:00:00
    hi last week I posted a video about the
  • 00:00:02
    British Army and the well the video was
  • 00:00:05
    fairly successful and in the comments
  • 00:00:07
    both on YouTube and also on Twitter
  • 00:00:08
    people said hey this video was really
  • 00:00:10
    great but could you do a comparison of
  • 00:00:12
    the British army with the French army
  • 00:00:14
    well that's what this video is now the
  • 00:00:16
    easiest way of putting it is that the
  • 00:00:17
    British and the French armies are
  • 00:00:19
    different in some ways and similar in
  • 00:00:22
    others and honestly I think that the
  • 00:00:23
    ways in which they are similar is more
  • 00:00:26
    interesting and more important than the
  • 00:00:28
    ways in which they are different why
  • 00:00:31
    more important because the ways in which
  • 00:00:33
    they are similar is bad news for both
  • 00:00:35
    armies with respect to their ability to
  • 00:00:37
    do the one thing that's on everybody's
  • 00:00:40
    mind these days which is their ability
  • 00:00:42
    to fight a major land war and
  • 00:00:45
    conventional highend conventional
  • 00:00:47
    Warfare against a peer or near peer
  • 00:00:51
    competitor such as Russia so I'm going
  • 00:00:54
    to divide this video into four parts
  • 00:00:55
    first part I'm going to talk very
  • 00:00:57
    briefly about my credentials basically
  • 00:00:59
    why should you be listening to me second
  • 00:01:00
    part I'm going to talk about why or how
  • 00:01:02
    these two armies are different the third
  • 00:01:04
    part I'm going to talk about how these
  • 00:01:06
    armies are similar and the fourth part
  • 00:01:08
    I'm going to try to wrap it up with some
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    conclusions about where we are and
  • 00:01:11
    whether or not the different differences
  • 00:01:12
    in similarties actually even matter and
  • 00:01:15
    the how best both armies should should
  • 00:01:18
    really move forward my name is Michael
  • 00:01:21
    shuren and welcome to my YouTube channel
  • 00:01:23
    Pax Americana a conversation about world
  • 00:01:25
    affairs global conflict military
  • 00:01:27
    strategy and anything else that happens
  • 00:01:30
    be on my mind so let's get into it so
  • 00:01:33
    first part credentials with regard to
  • 00:01:36
    the British military I've been following
  • 00:01:37
    the British military now for many many
  • 00:01:39
    years I worked on them both at the Rand
  • 00:01:40
    Corporation and I also wrote some stuff
  • 00:01:42
    on my own so I've got some Publications
  • 00:01:44
    at Rand and also written for things like
  • 00:01:46
    the wavel room about British military
  • 00:01:48
    the British military policy Etc I also
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    happen to be an associate fellow of the
  • 00:01:53
    world United Services Institute which is
  • 00:01:55
    the preeminent UK defense Think Tank and
  • 00:01:59
    I parti participated this summer at
  • 00:02:01
    their annual land Warfare conference in
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    in London uh which means to say that I I
  • 00:02:06
    am participating in albeit from a
  • 00:02:08
    distance in the current discussions
  • 00:02:10
    about the state of the British Army and
  • 00:02:12
    the future of the British army Etc as
  • 00:02:15
    for the French army I I confess I know a
  • 00:02:17
    great deal more about the French
  • 00:02:18
    military and army than I do about the
  • 00:02:20
    British simply because I focused much
  • 00:02:22
    more intensively on the French uh at
  • 00:02:24
    this point I think it's fair to say that
  • 00:02:26
    I'm one of the if not the leading
  • 00:02:28
    American expert in the French military
  • 00:02:30
    and I've written several studies for
  • 00:02:33
    Rand Corporation as well as for uh
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    Publications such as waren the rocks and
  • 00:02:38
    the Texas National Security view all
  • 00:02:40
    about the the British milit uh the
  • 00:02:42
    French military uh these include for
  • 00:02:45
    Rand I led a study of French networked
  • 00:02:47
    or French approaches to networked
  • 00:02:49
    Warfare I wrote a history of French coin
  • 00:02:52
    Doctrine the most important of these by
  • 00:02:54
    far is a study that I co-authored at
  • 00:02:56
    Rand with the Magnificent Stephanie
  • 00:02:57
    pizard under the title strong Ally
  • 00:02:59
    stretch thin which is a study of the
  • 00:03:01
    strengths and weaknesses of the French
  • 00:03:03
    military that was commissioned by the
  • 00:03:04
    United States Department of Defense this
  • 00:03:07
    study uh which by the way you can find
  • 00:03:08
    on the ran website and I put links in
  • 00:03:10
    the description to to that study as well
  • 00:03:12
    as everything else including the the uh
  • 00:03:14
    study on French approaches to network
  • 00:03:16
    Warfare but the the sh alyar them was
  • 00:03:19
    very well received by the highest
  • 00:03:20
    echelons of the French military General
  • 00:03:22
    Burkhart uh who is the chair of the
  • 00:03:25
    joint staff told me in person that he
  • 00:03:27
    thought very highly of the study and he
  • 00:03:29
    AG agreed with the conclusions the
  • 00:03:32
    French think so hardly of my work on
  • 00:03:34
    them and my work on the French military
  • 00:03:37
    and my efforts to basically be the the
  • 00:03:39
    explainer of the French military to an
  • 00:03:41
    American audience they actually made be
  • 00:03:43
    a uh a knight of the order of Merit
  • 00:03:47
    National order of Merit um which means
  • 00:03:50
    that from hence forth you should refer
  • 00:03:52
    to me as Sir Michael or if you are a
  • 00:03:55
    Monty Python fan uh Brave Sir Michael
  • 00:03:58
    I'm joking of course
  • 00:04:00
    so let's talk now let's talk now about
  • 00:04:03
    the differences between the two
  • 00:04:04
    militaries the first obvious difference
  • 00:04:07
    is size at this point the French army is
  • 00:04:09
    roughly almost twice as large as the
  • 00:04:11
    British army the British army has about
  • 00:04:13
    73,000 regular soldiers plus about
  • 00:04:15
    24,000 reservas the French army has
  • 00:04:18
    about 130 or 120 depending on what you
  • 00:04:21
    read thousand regular soldiers plus
  • 00:04:24
    about 25,000 reservists of those regular
  • 00:04:28
    Soldiers the French can consider the
  • 00:04:30
    size of its Deployable force to be about
  • 00:04:34
    77,000 I've read no comparative number
  • 00:04:37
    comparable number and any British Army
  • 00:04:39
    documents I've read in terms of what
  • 00:04:40
    they consider their Deployable Force I'm
  • 00:04:42
    not entirely sure what the french even
  • 00:04:43
    mean by that the point simply being that
  • 00:04:46
    the French army is significantly larger
  • 00:04:48
    than the British army it's also fair to
  • 00:04:51
    say that the French army is in better
  • 00:04:54
    shape than the British army I I I insist
  • 00:04:56
    it's not better that's not my argument
  • 00:04:58
    but rather it's just in better shape and
  • 00:05:01
    I think a a classic example of that is
  • 00:05:04
    the the relative success of French army
  • 00:05:06
    modernization programs compared to
  • 00:05:08
    British Army modernization programs in
  • 00:05:10
    the previous video about the British
  • 00:05:12
    army I talked about the future rapid
  • 00:05:14
    effects system or fres which was this
  • 00:05:17
    major program in the 2000s which was
  • 00:05:20
    designed to to replace obsolete British
  • 00:05:23
    armored vehicles with upto-date modern
  • 00:05:26
    armored vehicles all of which were
  • 00:05:28
    supposed to be stuffed to the guilds
  • 00:05:29
    with all the highest technology fres
  • 00:05:32
    failed and the only bit of fres as far
  • 00:05:34
    as I know that survives is the Ajax
  • 00:05:37
    infantry Fighting Vehicle which is
  • 00:05:39
    expected to enter service soon I'm sure
  • 00:05:41
    the Ajax is going to be a phenomenal
  • 00:05:43
    vehicle but the the whole story The Saga
  • 00:05:46
    of its development and production was
  • 00:05:48
    just Frau with all of problems and
  • 00:05:49
    delays Etc it's very problematic now
  • 00:05:52
    some people have also said for instance
  • 00:05:54
    some of the comments on to my video said
  • 00:05:56
    that the boxer which is a German design
  • 00:05:59
    vehicle that the British are also
  • 00:06:01
    building and and and now is coming into
  • 00:06:03
    service with the British army that boxer
  • 00:06:05
    also is is a legacy of fres uh I don't
  • 00:06:09
    know if that's true I your s of boxer as
  • 00:06:11
    being basically something that they
  • 00:06:13
    resorted to to replace a capability Gap
  • 00:06:16
    that's left by the failure FES but
  • 00:06:18
    either way I just want to know that
  • 00:06:19
    boxer exists and and and there is
  • 00:06:22
    apparently some British DNA and the the
  • 00:06:24
    whole program which arguably dates to to
  • 00:06:28
    to fit I don't know you should ask uh
  • 00:06:30
    Nicholas Drummond who is the boxer
  • 00:06:32
    expert in the UK now the French in
  • 00:06:35
    general have done much much better with
  • 00:06:37
    their modernization efforts so for
  • 00:06:40
    instance France leads the way when it
  • 00:06:41
    comes to digi
  • 00:06:43
    digitization and the implementation of
  • 00:06:46
    information networks and uh Network
  • 00:06:48
    Warfare Technologies and the development
  • 00:06:50
    of a whole family of armored vehicles
  • 00:06:53
    I'm thinking of the vbci which uh
  • 00:06:55
    entered into service I believe in 2006
  • 00:06:58
    the Jaguar the Griffin
  • 00:07:00
    next is going to come something called
  • 00:07:01
    surval and then in the meantime they're
  • 00:07:03
    working on modernizing the liaran battle
  • 00:07:05
    tank they're going to modernize uh
  • 00:07:07
    they're intending to modernize 200 of
  • 00:07:09
    the deair I I mention that just in
  • 00:07:11
    contrast because I believe that the
  • 00:07:12
    British plans to modernize the
  • 00:07:14
    Challenger to they're only going to
  • 00:07:16
    modernize something like 140 149 of them
  • 00:07:19
    so they're going to end up with a uh
  • 00:07:21
    hopefully they're going to keep the rest
  • 00:07:22
    but we're talking roughly the same
  • 00:07:25
    numbers the uh I also if if I'm going to
  • 00:07:27
    talk about modernization I also have to
  • 00:07:29
    to talk about something called the
  • 00:07:30
    Scorpion program uh which dates to 2014
  • 00:07:34
    uh I mean French army networked or their
  • 00:07:37
    implementation of network Warfare te
  • 00:07:39
    technologies predates that by a lot I
  • 00:07:41
    wrote about it in my studies if you want
  • 00:07:43
    to learn more about the history of this
  • 00:07:45
    please go go read that I think it's very
  • 00:07:47
    interesting um but uh scorpion
  • 00:07:51
    represents sort of like a scaling up of
  • 00:07:53
    of these efforts and and sort of
  • 00:07:55
    development of a much more comprehensive
  • 00:07:56
    all of force kind of effort scorpion
  • 00:08:00
    technically is an acronym it refers to
  • 00:08:02
    the Synergy the Synergy the
  • 00:08:09
    contact
  • 00:08:11
    whatever is completely untranslatable
  • 00:08:13
    into English um but I'm willing to bet
  • 00:08:15
    that there not a single French officer
  • 00:08:17
    actually knows that that's what scorpion
  • 00:08:19
    stands for because they kind of invent
  • 00:08:21
    pick the word and then invented a way to
  • 00:08:25
    say that s going them either way it
  • 00:08:27
    doesn't really matter um just think of
  • 00:08:29
    it a scorpion they've got a cool logo
  • 00:08:31
    complete with a scorpion on it's pretty
  • 00:08:32
    cool anyways scorpion is a very large
  • 00:08:34
    program at the heart of scorpion is a
  • 00:08:36
    digital information architecture uh
  • 00:08:39
    complete with new radios and new battle
  • 00:08:41
    Battlefield management software as well
  • 00:08:44
    as newly designed vehicles that are
  • 00:08:46
    basically built around scorpion
  • 00:08:48
    vbci predates scorpion and and
  • 00:08:52
    implements the pre- Scorpion technology
  • 00:08:54
    but of course they're they've adapted
  • 00:08:56
    everything and brought it online so you
  • 00:08:58
    should think of vbci as being part of
  • 00:08:59
    the Scorpion program even though
  • 00:09:01
    technically it predates that same is
  • 00:09:03
    true with theair which has been they've
  • 00:09:05
    modified it already so that it's got all
  • 00:09:07
    the the latest tech on it so theair is
  • 00:09:10
    also very much it's not excluded from
  • 00:09:13
    scorpion even though it's technically
  • 00:09:14
    not not part of it lastly scorpion is an
  • 00:09:17
    effort to rethink for structure and
  • 00:09:19
    tactics in order to optimize the use of
  • 00:09:21
    the new technology so they're really
  • 00:09:23
    thinking about like how do you redesign
  • 00:09:26
    and how do you uh a tank company
  • 00:09:29
    how do you fight the T company Etc
  • 00:09:32
    scorpion by all measures is successful
  • 00:09:34
    and I think it's fair to say that the
  • 00:09:36
    French army is really ahead of all of
  • 00:09:39
    the other NATO armies including possibly
  • 00:09:41
    the United States when it comes to the
  • 00:09:43
    development and implementation at a
  • 00:09:45
    comprehensive level of a comprehensive
  • 00:09:47
    modernization program in terms of
  • 00:09:49
    Information Technology networked Warfare
  • 00:09:52
    Etc I I think it's true based on what I
  • 00:09:54
    read that they are really second only to
  • 00:09:56
    the Israelis in terms of the
  • 00:09:58
    implementation of the stuff now scorpion
  • 00:10:02
    I want to address this scorpion uh in
  • 00:10:04
    the associate technology can do several
  • 00:10:06
    neat things it's got some cool tricks to
  • 00:10:07
    it one is something called vetronics and
  • 00:10:09
    the idea is that the the network
  • 00:10:11
    monitors the systems on French army
  • 00:10:13
    vehicles so that it it it's it's these
  • 00:10:16
    vehicles send data to the network
  • 00:10:19
    regarding the systems on the vehicle uh
  • 00:10:22
    things that it's going to run out of
  • 00:10:23
    things that are going to break Etc this
  • 00:10:25
    is supposed to help the logistical
  • 00:10:27
    effort because this enable ables the
  • 00:10:29
    Army to have a precise understanding of
  • 00:10:32
    what vehicle is going to need what kind
  • 00:10:33
    of parts and when so that they could get
  • 00:10:37
    precisely those parts to the right place
  • 00:10:39
    at the right time so this means that
  • 00:10:41
    they can send fewer parts right because
  • 00:10:43
    it can be much more precise so this is
  • 00:10:45
    supposed to help the whole logistical
  • 00:10:47
    effort I think that the real star of the
  • 00:10:49
    show though is the network and the
  • 00:10:50
    battlefield management software which of
  • 00:10:52
    course features Blue Force tracker and
  • 00:10:54
    slw toq Technology slw to Q is the
  • 00:10:57
    ability of the the ideas that
  • 00:11:00
    your tanker vehicle or whatever your
  • 00:11:02
    maybe your Caesar how it's are you get
  • 00:11:04
    the firing data from the network right
  • 00:11:06
    the network tells you the target is
  • 00:11:08
    there and the cannon on your on your
  • 00:11:11
    vehicle will automatically slew and
  • 00:11:14
    position itself to aim precisely at that
  • 00:11:17
    Target uh uh it will not fire
  • 00:11:20
    automatically the French is a matter of
  • 00:11:22
    policy do insist that they they have
  • 00:11:25
    what's called a man in the loop the idea
  • 00:11:26
    that somewhere in this chain there's
  • 00:11:29
    going to be somebody who has to press a
  • 00:11:31
    button or pull the trigger such that uh
  • 00:11:34
    you know it's not firing automatically
  • 00:11:36
    although I did ask a French General who
  • 00:11:37
    was in charge of Scorpion for a while
  • 00:11:39
    whether or not there was maybe like
  • 00:11:41
    maybe on the back of the box in the tank
  • 00:11:42
    you can flip a switch and the whole
  • 00:11:44
    thing will go fully automatic he
  • 00:11:46
    actually did not answer that question
  • 00:11:47
    but he did say that he thought that
  • 00:11:49
    fully automated Warfare was completely
  • 00:11:51
    inevitable simply because fully
  • 00:11:52
    automatic Warfare fully automating the
  • 00:11:55
    system would save a lot of time and in
  • 00:11:58
    some context like kind of Time Savings
  • 00:12:00
    like squeezing out seconds out of your
  • 00:12:02
    reaction time could be critical anyways
  • 00:12:05
    be that as it may all of this is
  • 00:12:08
    supposed to enable something called
  • 00:12:09
    collaborative Warfare which is I think
  • 00:12:12
    you can describe it as the holy Grill of
  • 00:12:13
    all the Western militaries the idea
  • 00:12:15
    behind collaborative Warfare is that uh
  • 00:12:18
    you know you're out in the battlefield
  • 00:12:19
    and you've got all these different
  • 00:12:20
    elements because of course everything is
  • 00:12:21
    combined arms these days so you've got
  • 00:12:23
    the howitzers and infantry fighting
  • 00:12:24
    vehicles and you got the tanks you got
  • 00:12:26
    drones and fighter jets and all this
  • 00:12:27
    kind of stuff and infantry got eyes and
  • 00:12:30
    and the idea is that all of them are
  • 00:12:31
    networked right all of them are sharing
  • 00:12:33
    information and so if there's
  • 00:12:34
    information about let's say a threat
  • 00:12:36
    pops up maybe send me tank or maybe just
  • 00:12:38
    some guy on a roof the with a anti-tank
  • 00:12:40
    guided missile who's prepared to take a
  • 00:12:42
    shot at something uh he's he's seen he's
  • 00:12:46
    located the information is shared on the
  • 00:12:48
    network the in the network basically
  • 00:12:50
    delivers to uh helps decide very quickly
  • 00:12:54
    what is the best weapons platform or
  • 00:12:56
    weapons system that can take a shot at
  • 00:12:58
    that threat and neutralize the threat
  • 00:13:00
    and then you know again with sud then
  • 00:13:03
    you know somebody's turret is going to
  • 00:13:04
    automatically move over to take a
  • 00:13:06
    precise shot collaborative Warfare is
  • 00:13:08
    something that all militaries are
  • 00:13:10
    working on uh I I believe that with the
  • 00:13:13
    implementation of Scorpion the French is
  • 00:13:15
    now simply ahead of the game with
  • 00:13:17
    everybody else the British are also
  • 00:13:18
    implementing Etc but the French is
  • 00:13:20
    simply ahead at a at a comprehensive
  • 00:13:22
    level now why has France been more
  • 00:13:25
    successful I I think that there are two
  • 00:13:27
    major reasons the first reason seon has
  • 00:13:29
    to do with the the the predictability
  • 00:13:31
    and stability of French military budgets
  • 00:13:33
    and it has to do with also how the
  • 00:13:35
    French manage their their their their
  • 00:13:37
    budgets and their spending so that even
  • 00:13:39
    when the French military was going
  • 00:13:41
    through severe budget cuts which was the
  • 00:13:43
    case up until about I think 2014 2015
  • 00:13:46
    when around then when the French stopped
  • 00:13:49
    cutting and it started to turn reverse
  • 00:13:50
    the curves and started to spend more
  • 00:13:52
    money on defense uh because of the
  • 00:13:54
    5-year military programming laws Etc I
  • 00:13:57
    think that all the people involved in we
  • 00:13:59
    weapons development and weapons
  • 00:14:01
    procurement had just better visibility
  • 00:14:04
    with regard to how much money they had
  • 00:14:06
    and how much money they were going to
  • 00:14:07
    have I believe that this is a key
  • 00:14:09
    ingredient to successful modernization
  • 00:14:11
    program the other major reason why the
  • 00:14:13
    French have been successful where the
  • 00:14:15
    British have failed at least with fres
  • 00:14:17
    is that the French have done a much
  • 00:14:19
    better job of making decisions about
  • 00:14:21
    their requirements and then sticking to
  • 00:14:23
    those decisions right whereas the
  • 00:14:25
    British have had a hard time making
  • 00:14:26
    decisions and then often after they make
  • 00:14:28
    a decision they've changed the mind and
  • 00:14:30
    and changed the requirements midc course
  • 00:14:32
    which is very problematic now this does
  • 00:14:35
    not mean and I want to stress this this
  • 00:14:36
    does not mean that the French made the
  • 00:14:38
    right decisions these decisions are
  • 00:14:41
    based on your understanding of not just
  • 00:14:43
    your current requirements but your
  • 00:14:45
    future requirements they are calculated
  • 00:14:47
    bets that you're making as far as I'm
  • 00:14:50
    aware the decisions that the French army
  • 00:14:52
    made that I'm I'm speaking about here
  • 00:14:54
    decisions that they made if not prior to
  • 00:14:56
    2014 then at least prior to to uh 2022
  • 00:15:00
    in other words before the French army
  • 00:15:03
    shifted its focus to to focus
  • 00:15:05
    single-mindedly on high-end conventional
  • 00:15:08
    Warfare and potentially fighting the
  • 00:15:11
    Russians the
  • 00:15:14
    requirements of the day what they were
  • 00:15:16
    thinking when they made the decisions
  • 00:15:18
    which you can now see reflected in their
  • 00:15:20
    new vehicle Fleet had to do with the
  • 00:15:22
    French calculus of uh where a happy
  • 00:15:25
    medium was in terms of risk and
  • 00:15:28
    requirements they wanted to they didn't
  • 00:15:30
    want to tell her their force to be able
  • 00:15:32
    to be to fight to they didn't want to
  • 00:15:35
    optimize it for the lower end of the
  • 00:15:37
    conflict Spectrum or the higher end of
  • 00:15:39
    the conflict spectrum they aimed instead
  • 00:15:40
    for what they call the middle segment or
  • 00:15:42
    the
  • 00:15:43
    Sego so the result is a fleet of
  • 00:15:46
    vehicles that they intended to be light
  • 00:15:50
    enough to be deployed to let's say
  • 00:15:54
    Africa not just deployed to Africa but
  • 00:15:56
    also sustained in Africa particularly
  • 00:15:59
    thech military's relatively poor
  • 00:16:00
    logistical
  • 00:16:02
    capabilities but heavy enough to survive
  • 00:16:05
    on a on a battlefield and conventional
  • 00:16:07
    Warfare now the word enough I think is
  • 00:16:09
    very very important the US military does
  • 00:16:12
    not like to buy things that are good
  • 00:16:15
    enough they want Optimal Solutions and
  • 00:16:19
    they can often afford to have Optimal
  • 00:16:21
    Solutions so they can afford to look for
  • 00:16:23
    optimal solutions for things the French
  • 00:16:26
    uh have I think much more modest
  • 00:16:27
    Ambitions because they have much more
  • 00:16:29
    limited means and so as a result they're
  • 00:16:31
    satisfied with enough of course whether
  • 00:16:33
    or not something is good enough for a
  • 00:16:36
    certain context is a risk it's it's it's
  • 00:16:39
    a risk they're betting but that's what
  • 00:16:41
    they're thinking of uh as a result I
  • 00:16:43
    mean the most obvious way you can see
  • 00:16:45
    this in the new vehicle Fleet is the
  • 00:16:46
    fact that uh there all wheel the vbci is
  • 00:16:48
    Wheels the Jaguar the Griffin the sural
  • 00:16:50
    they all have wheels the only things now
  • 00:16:53
    in the French army inventory that still
  • 00:16:55
    have caterpillar tracks so they the
  • 00:16:57
    Clare main battle tank and I believe
  • 00:16:59
    that they still have some of their old
  • 00:17:01
    au1 self-re howitzers from the 1980s I
  • 00:17:05
    think they still have some of them in
  • 00:17:06
    their inventory some of them in their
  • 00:17:07
    atolia units but those I believe are
  • 00:17:09
    slated to be phased out by the Caesar
  • 00:17:11
    Howitzer a s self-propelled Howitzer
  • 00:17:14
    which is on a truck chassis with with
  • 00:17:16
    wheels wheels are optimal for deploying
  • 00:17:19
    to places like Africa they are not
  • 00:17:22
    optimal for slugging out for the
  • 00:17:23
    Russians in Ukraine and we've seen this
  • 00:17:25
    in the Ukraine war that the wheel
  • 00:17:26
    vehicles have suffered have not done as
  • 00:17:28
    well
  • 00:17:29
    as the track vehicles given the snow
  • 00:17:31
    given the mud the very difficult
  • 00:17:33
    conditions but that's what you see and
  • 00:17:35
    and so when the French now they're
  • 00:17:37
    thinking about restoring their cap cap
  • 00:17:39
    capability to do high in conventional
  • 00:17:42
    Warfare they're trying to do it with a
  • 00:17:44
    force that ultimately is designed for
  • 00:17:47
    something else it's designed for the
  • 00:17:48
    middle segment rather than the force
  • 00:17:50
    that perhaps they would have designed if
  • 00:17:52
    they had been focus on conventional
  • 00:17:54
    Warfare 20 30 years ago when they're
  • 00:17:57
    making decisions that uh are now
  • 00:17:59
    reflected in their their vehicle
  • 00:18:01
    Fleet okay so let's talk now about how
  • 00:18:03
    the British and the French armies are
  • 00:18:05
    similar in the previous video about the
  • 00:18:08
    French army I talked about the British
  • 00:18:09
    army I talked about how the Ukraine war
  • 00:18:12
    has revealed certain capabilities to be
  • 00:18:16
    essential on the modern Battlefield and
  • 00:18:18
    these are capabilities that Western
  • 00:18:20
    armies including the British including
  • 00:18:22
    the French either do not really have
  • 00:18:25
    because they're new or have
  • 00:18:29
    but are really more legacies from the
  • 00:18:31
    cold war and are capabilities that
  • 00:18:33
    they've disinvested from meaning they
  • 00:18:35
    don't have a lot of it or what they have
  • 00:18:37
    just as simply inadequate or too few Etc
  • 00:18:40
    and so the idea is that all Western
  • 00:18:41
    militaries are in the same kind of boat
  • 00:18:44
    and they need to boost these
  • 00:18:45
    capabilities and they do do it either
  • 00:18:47
    fill the capability gaps or enhance the
  • 00:18:49
    capabilities that they have and they
  • 00:18:51
    need do do it really quickly so what am
  • 00:18:53
    I talking about I'm talking about air
  • 00:18:54
    defense capabilities I'm talking about
  • 00:18:56
    drones counter drone capabilities I'm
  • 00:18:58
    talking about ISR counter ISR long range
  • 00:19:02
    fires I'm thinking tube and and Rocket
  • 00:19:04
    artillery electronic warfare and I think
  • 00:19:07
    also certain engineering capabilities
  • 00:19:08
    like breaching capabilities and bridging
  • 00:19:11
    capabilities these things are equally
  • 00:19:14
    true of both the British and the French
  • 00:19:16
    army so both of them really are
  • 00:19:18
    inadequate in this regard both for
  • 00:19:20
    example have uh Howers and self Howers
  • 00:19:24
    but really very few both of them have
  • 00:19:26
    multiple launch rocket systems but very
  • 00:19:28
    few I think actually the British have
  • 00:19:29
    more than the French both of them only
  • 00:19:31
    have a few main battle tanks roughly
  • 00:19:33
    about 200 both of them by the way
  • 00:19:35
    neither is capable of building new main
  • 00:19:37
    battle tanks because the assembly lines
  • 00:19:38
    closed a long time ago both armies also
  • 00:19:42
    have too little uh they don't have
  • 00:19:46
    enough ammunition they don't have enough
  • 00:19:47
    missiles the result being that neither
  • 00:19:49
    would last very long in any kind of war
  • 00:19:51
    and both now I think are struggling both
  • 00:19:53
    to restore their own stocks while also
  • 00:19:55
    trying to keep ammunition in the
  • 00:19:57
    pipeline for the ukrainians to use I
  • 00:19:59
    believe that the French defense industry
  • 00:20:01
    is healthier than the British defense
  • 00:20:02
    industry simply as a result of
  • 00:20:04
    long-standing French industrial policy
  • 00:20:07
    that being said neither defense industry
  • 00:20:09
    has much in the way of industrial
  • 00:20:11
    capacity they they're making things but
  • 00:20:13
    they can't really crank them out in very
  • 00:20:15
    large numbers which would be necessary
  • 00:20:16
    in the invent of a major war to give you
  • 00:20:19
    an example uh the Caesar howitz or sthal
  • 00:20:22
    Howitzer right now after a lot of effort
  • 00:20:25
    trying to ramp up the capacity the
  • 00:20:28
    manufacturer of the Caesar which is
  • 00:20:30
    nexter can make 70 of them a year but
  • 00:20:33
    that's only now right just a few years
  • 00:20:35
    ago they could make much fewer than that
  • 00:20:37
    I don't remember the numbers but 70 is
  • 00:20:39
    not really a lot now what about 155 mm
  • 00:20:43
    Howitzer shells which we have all
  • 00:20:46
    learned in because the Ukraine war are
  • 00:20:48
    absolutely essential This Is Like Oxygen
  • 00:20:51
    for for an army engaged in a
  • 00:20:53
    conventional fight uh my source on the
  • 00:20:56
    the the French uh and their ability to
  • 00:20:59
    manufacture these shells is Jean Dominic
  • 00:21:02
    M uh this man here uh for those of you
  • 00:21:06
    who are not French and probably are not
  • 00:21:07
    familiar with him Jean Dominique m is
  • 00:21:10
    one of France's leading uh journalists
  • 00:21:13
    analysts and commentators on
  • 00:21:15
    international relations National
  • 00:21:16
    Security and and the defense defense
  • 00:21:19
    establishment French military he's
  • 00:21:21
    really really very good this is a
  • 00:21:24
    book are we ready for war which came out
  • 00:21:27
    in January of 2024 M says that he does
  • 00:21:31
    not know how many howzer shells the
  • 00:21:33
    French can manufacture a year because
  • 00:21:35
    the number is classified he does say
  • 00:21:37
    that nexter which makes these shells for
  • 00:21:39
    the French army recently has stated that
  • 00:21:43
    they intend to double the rate of shell
  • 00:21:46
    production to 100,000 per year by
  • 00:21:49
    2025 which suggests that right now that
  • 00:21:53
    100,000 is the doubled amount that means
  • 00:21:55
    that they are now making 50,000 per year
  • 00:21:58
    he also reports that the French army
  • 00:22:00
    itself says that they can sustain a rate
  • 00:22:03
    of Howard
  • 00:22:05
    fire uh of at most 9,000 Howards or
  • 00:22:09
    shells per year given the current rate
  • 00:22:12
    of production which he notes is roughly
  • 00:22:15
    the same number of poer shells that the
  • 00:22:17
    Ukrainian Army fires each and every day
  • 00:22:21
    meaning that France isn't producing
  • 00:22:22
    nearly enough hoarder shells what about
  • 00:22:25
    the British again I I don't know how
  • 00:22:27
    many hoarder shells the British are are
  • 00:22:29
    capable of producing uh that number
  • 00:22:31
    probably is classified I do know that
  • 00:22:33
    the ministry of Defense has thrown a lot
  • 00:22:35
    of money recently at the Bae which is
  • 00:22:37
    the company that makes them for the
  • 00:22:38
    British Army in order to uh scale up the
  • 00:22:41
    production of shells what are the
  • 00:22:42
    numbers I don't know I suspect they're
  • 00:22:44
    not really high enough another big
  • 00:22:47
    similarity with the two armies is that
  • 00:22:49
    neither really has the means to fight a
  • 00:22:51
    large War because they just simply lack
  • 00:22:53
    in Mass they just don't have numbers
  • 00:22:55
    they have too few stuff right too few
  • 00:22:58
    things
  • 00:22:59
    uh in the last video I described the
  • 00:23:00
    British army as a bonsai tree the French
  • 00:23:02
    army is itself a bonsai tree it's a
  • 00:23:05
    better tended bonsai tree I would argue
  • 00:23:07
    it's a little bit larger but it's still
  • 00:23:08
    a bonsai tree so could Britain fight a
  • 00:23:11
    major ground war I don't really think so
  • 00:23:13
    could France fight a major ground
  • 00:23:15
    war yeah um uh M says that the French
  • 00:23:19
    army could manage a front of 80
  • 00:23:21
    kilometers which sounds a lot but really
  • 00:23:23
    isn't uh and it's certainly a far cry
  • 00:23:26
    from what the French army was capable of
  • 00:23:28
    during the cold war or you know during
  • 00:23:30
    or prior to World War II would these
  • 00:23:33
    armies be of any use I think that they
  • 00:23:35
    would be but but not necessarily for
  • 00:23:37
    long I mean both armies are really
  • 00:23:38
    counting on quality over quantity
  • 00:23:40
    they're they're betting over that
  • 00:23:42
    throwing money at technology or uh a
  • 00:23:46
    training right which is going to give
  • 00:23:48
    them like they've got all these really
  • 00:23:49
    great things and these very wellt
  • 00:23:50
    trained soldiers that that's going to
  • 00:23:53
    get them somewhere and that's really
  • 00:23:54
    going to to help them uh and and I
  • 00:23:57
    there's some truth truth to that right
  • 00:23:59
    you know like a caesar howitz or an as90
  • 00:24:01
    or one of these new boxer howitzers that
  • 00:24:03
    the British army you're getting uh
  • 00:24:05
    they're clearly better than a certain
  • 00:24:07
    number of inferior housers but what
  • 00:24:09
    exactly is the ratio and isn't enough to
  • 00:24:12
    make up to vastly Superior numbers that
  • 00:24:13
    the enemy might be able to throw at them
  • 00:24:15
    and is it a better invest of the money
  • 00:24:17
    it's really very hard to know perhaps
  • 00:24:19
    after the Ukraine war we can analyze the
  • 00:24:21
    data and we could say you know because
  • 00:24:23
    the the the the ukrainians have maybe a
  • 00:24:25
    dozen Caesar plus they've got some
  • 00:24:27
    German uh self forb Howard shows that
  • 00:24:29
    are supposed to be excellent you know
  • 00:24:31
    maybe you can see that okay each one of
  • 00:24:33
    these things is worth X number of
  • 00:24:35
    inferior things and then you could kind
  • 00:24:37
    of do the math and figure out which is
  • 00:24:39
    the better buy it's really hard to know
  • 00:24:41
    but I don't think we know at the moment
  • 00:24:43
    I do strongly believe that
  • 00:24:45
    pound-for-pound both armies are very
  • 00:24:49
    good and both armies would cut the
  • 00:24:50
    Russians to Pieces uh I will bet money
  • 00:24:53
    on any British or French infantry squad
  • 00:24:56
    or company or Tank Company over nearly
  • 00:24:59
    any conceivable adversary just because
  • 00:25:01
    of their training their skills they're
  • 00:25:03
    really really very good both of them uh
  • 00:25:06
    I think the training in professionalism
  • 00:25:07
    really counts for a lot we saw this in
  • 00:25:09
    the fauland war where in the fauland war
  • 00:25:12
    you had a relatively small number of
  • 00:25:14
    highly trained British professionals go
  • 00:25:16
    up against Argentine conscript it was
  • 00:25:19
    hardly a fair fight which is exactly
  • 00:25:21
    what you want you don't want a fair
  • 00:25:22
    fight in combat um and and I I also
  • 00:25:26
    think that the French with their
  • 00:25:27
    emphasis on maneuver and speed and and
  • 00:25:29
    having uh uh lower ranking officers take
  • 00:25:33
    the initiative I think they they would
  • 00:25:34
    dance around the Russians and just
  • 00:25:36
    slotter them but then they'd run out of
  • 00:25:37
    ammunition and they might run out out of
  • 00:25:39
    ammunition really very quickly and then
  • 00:25:42
    at some point the Russians could just
  • 00:25:44
    drown them in Mass just overwhelm them
  • 00:25:46
    with with the sheer numbers we like to
  • 00:25:48
    laugh at the images of these these the
  • 00:25:50
    Russians sending t-62s into battle on
  • 00:25:52
    Ukraine t62 is of course being these
  • 00:25:54
    ancient Cold War vintage things that are
  • 00:25:57
    cre easily wildly obsolete on the modern
  • 00:26:00
    battlefield but it's not funny anymore
  • 00:26:02
    if youve got nothing left in your
  • 00:26:03
    inventory to stop the t62 other than
  • 00:26:06
    maybe be throwing rocks at them so at
  • 00:26:08
    that point the t62 actually becomes a
  • 00:26:10
    significant threat to to your own side
  • 00:26:13
    the reality is that both armies reflect
  • 00:26:15
    the fact that between the end of the
  • 00:26:16
    Cold War and relatively recently neither
  • 00:26:18
    country took seriously the possibility
  • 00:26:20
    of ending up in a large war and
  • 00:26:23
    certainly not one in Europe they as a
  • 00:26:26
    result they're really just not equipped
  • 00:26:27
    to do that
  • 00:26:28
    so let's agree that neither Army can
  • 00:26:31
    handle a big war at least for any length
  • 00:26:33
    of time although I would argue that the
  • 00:26:34
    French because of the larger size would
  • 00:26:36
    do a little bit better but so what so
  • 00:26:39
    now we get to part part four does it
  • 00:26:41
    really matter in the end do they really
  • 00:26:44
    need to be able to do this nuclear
  • 00:26:46
    weapons still exists the Russians still
  • 00:26:48
    have nuclear weapons during the Cold War
  • 00:26:50
    the French calculated that that they
  • 00:26:52
    even though they had a gigantic Army at
  • 00:26:54
    the time that that a war with the
  • 00:26:57
    Soviets sooner rather than later was
  • 00:26:58
    going to end up going Nuclear So they
  • 00:27:00
    didn't need an army that could actually
  • 00:27:02
    fight the Soviets for the duration
  • 00:27:04
    because there would be no duration there
  • 00:27:05
    would be nuclear war or hopefully there
  • 00:27:08
    would be some sort of offramp that both
  • 00:27:09
    sides would would would find before the
  • 00:27:13
    thing went nuclear and the and the and
  • 00:27:14
    the world ended if the British and
  • 00:27:16
    French are not fighting the Russians
  • 00:27:18
    then who are they actually fighting like
  • 00:27:20
    who what plausible scenario is there
  • 00:27:22
    actually that either country would find
  • 00:27:24
    themselves in a major land war against
  • 00:27:26
    whom and where and when and also neither
  • 00:27:29
    country is likely for the foreseeable
  • 00:27:31
    future to do what it takes to fix this
  • 00:27:34
    situation which is to spend a lot of
  • 00:27:37
    money many many billions of dollars to
  • 00:27:41
    turn their armies into things that are
  • 00:27:43
    actually capable of getting into and
  • 00:27:46
    sustaining and fighting large Ground
  • 00:27:48
    Wars in in Europe against somebody like
  • 00:27:50
    the Russians or I don't know who it's
  • 00:27:52
    just not going to happen so I want to
  • 00:27:54
    leave you I want to leave you with some
  • 00:27:56
    concluding remarks from Jean Dominique m
  • 00:27:58
    uh and he's of course talking about
  • 00:27:59
    France and the French army but I believe
  • 00:28:01
    that what John M M says is equally
  • 00:28:05
    applicable to the United Kingdom and the
  • 00:28:07
    British army mé calls for not spending
  • 00:28:12
    more money but for greater
  • 00:28:14
    resilience and he talks about the French
  • 00:28:17
    in the in 1914 and he talks about how
  • 00:28:20
    France just barely hung on at the first
  • 00:28:23
    battle of the mar and then afterwards
  • 00:28:25
    was able to to sort of absorb the
  • 00:28:27
    horrible losses of 1914 and then to
  • 00:28:30
    adapt he says that it it adapted it
  • 00:28:32
    built up the the quote kind of force and
  • 00:28:34
    quality and quantity that it needed and
  • 00:28:37
    he says that France's industry and its
  • 00:28:39
    people also responded beautiful
  • 00:28:41
    beautifully and with a remarkable sense
  • 00:28:43
    of unity and purpose now France today he
  • 00:28:46
    says I'm quoting we must therefore
  • 00:28:49
    cultivate our faculty for resilience but
  • 00:28:52
    above all for adaptation flexibility and
  • 00:28:54
    elasticity first of all intellectually
  • 00:28:57
    to do that M writes we have permanently
  • 00:29:00
    to encourage strategic debate and to
  • 00:29:02
    listen to those who think outside the
  • 00:29:04
    box that comfortable box that ensures
  • 00:29:07
    good careers and the financing and
  • 00:29:09
    research contracts further M concludes
  • 00:29:12
    it's not for war that we must be ready
  • 00:29:14
    because that is impossible rather what
  • 00:29:16
    one must be ready for is quote the the
  • 00:29:19
    possibility of having to adapt quickly
  • 00:29:21
    and well to a radically new situation
  • 00:29:24
    this he adds might be War but it also
  • 00:29:27
    goes for other major threats such as
  • 00:29:28
    pandemics natural or Technic
  • 00:29:30
    technological catastrophes or economic
  • 00:29:33
    crashes if you like this video thank you
  • 00:29:35
    very much please like And subscribe you
  • 00:29:37
    know the drill also please check out in
  • 00:29:39
    the description I put links to uh
  • 00:29:41
    various articles I've written about the
  • 00:29:43
    British and the French armies as well as
  • 00:29:45
    my LinkedIn my Twitter to my website
  • 00:29:47
    Michael shen.com and my substack and if
  • 00:29:50
    you have any recommendations if there's
  • 00:29:52
    something that you'd like me to talk
  • 00:29:53
    about in the future uh add them to your
  • 00:29:55
    comments uh I've had a lot of good
  • 00:29:57
    recommendations so I've got a lot of
  • 00:29:59
    stuff in the pipeline as a result thank
  • 00:30:01
    you very much
Tags
  • British Army
  • French Army
  • Military Comparison
  • Modern Warfare
  • NATO
  • Military Strategy
  • Adaptation
  • Resilience
  • Scorpion Program
  • Ukraine Conflict