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hey guys welcome back to another video
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thank you to those who decided to take
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the poll yesterday I agree with the
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majority of you that information is
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important so I will continue releasing
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these weekly Market updates but today
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let's go ahead and take a look at what
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has changed in the General market what's
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going on with volume rejections spot
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versus contract rates and diesel prices
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and then we'll take a look at the spot
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market and how it has changed for
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Drive-Ins reefers and flat beds ready
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let's
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[Music]
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go so as always we're going to start
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with the net change in carrier
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authorities so as of last Friday we lost
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an additional 12 carriers net now what
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about the spot versus contract rates
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well the blue line is 2024 compared to
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202 three in the pink line as you can
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see contract carriers are actually
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getting paid less the higher the line is
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the smaller the margin between what spot
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and contract carriers earn they're
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currently getting paid 63 cents per mile
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more than those spot carriers now what
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about the volume well the blue line is
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2024 and the pink is last year and
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something that we can see is that volume
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for the first time this year pretty much
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fell below 202 three levels what's
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causing this I am not sure what about
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those rejections well the rejections
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have been climbing although they did
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make a U-turn just in the past few days
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currently rejections are at
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5.7% just about they did hit the 6% Mark
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a few days ago and then kind of made a
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turnaround and finally last but not
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least of course we have to talk about
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those diesel prices so what we have here
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is we have the blue line which Is Us in
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2024 the pink is 2023 and the green is
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2022 and one thing that we see is that
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diesel prices hit their lowest point in
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2 years and currently the average diesel
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price on a national level is
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$359 per gallon all right so now let's
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talk about the spot Market starting with
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dyy Vans this data is from FTR Intel and
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what we can see is that dry Vans
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actually saw a 4C decrease week over
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week however compared to last year on
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the spot Market dry Vans are getting
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paid about 1% above those 2023 levels
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over the past 5 years rates are down
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11% volumes on the spot market for dry
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Vans increased by
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1.7% there is no change compared to last
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year and they're 33% lower if we're
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taking a look at the 5year average now
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let's talk about Market Movers for a
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moment in the General market for dve ANS
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to see what is going on and first we're
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going to take a look at these volumes
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and red means there was a decrease in
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volume blue means there was an increase
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and for the most part the map is red
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which means that we saw a lot of
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decreases in volumes for dry Vans which
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is interesting considering the fact that
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we are approaching those holidays right
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now now in terms of the rejections last
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week I believe it was a pretty much a
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blue map rejection skyrocketed for
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drive-ins everywhere this week not so
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much a lot more red a lot more places
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where people are not rejecting as much
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Freight now the question is what is
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happening in the contract to spot Market
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where is the volume going from the
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contract side to the spot side well the
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top five markets where more volume hits
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the spot market for dry bands is Green
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Bay was Wisconsin Ontario California Los
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Angeles California Columbus Ohio and
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Rock Island Illinois now this obviously
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tells us everything about volumes it
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tells us nothing about the load to truck
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ratios which end up affecting the rates
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right so for that we have to look at the
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capacity side on the spot Market in
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those areas Green Bay Wisconsin is a
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lukewarm Market however it's surrounded
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by overc capacity now Ontario and Los
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Angeles are hot markets by themselves
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but now they are also surrounded by
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overc capacity which means those
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deadheading trucks will be kind of
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driving the rates Down Columbus Ohio is
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warm and there is some extra capacity
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around not too much Rock Island Illinois
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is a bad Market because first of all
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it's a cool Market there are more trucks
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posted than there are loads and there is
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overc capacity surrounding it all right
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what about those reefers well on the
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spot Market reefers actually saw a 4C
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increase week over week in the rate per
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mile which is about 2% higher than this
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time last year however according to the
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5-year average reefer rates are down 7%
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now volumes week over week saw an
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increase of
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5.6% on the spot Market however compared
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to last year they're down
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2.5% and down
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33% um over the 5-year average now in
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terms of the Market Movers let's take a
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look at the volume map first a lot of
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red also volumes went down in the
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General market for reefers again
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question mark why is this happening um
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and if we take a look at rejections
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we'll see there's also a lot of red
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there's some blue in the Nebraska area
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that's where rejections increased Idaho
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Utah but a lot of red going on so yeah
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it's interesting to see how volumes kind
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of tumbled down now in terms of the
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contract to spot which Market actually
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see more contract volume moving to the
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spot Market those are Fargo North Dakota
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Joplin Missouri Joliet Illinois Grand
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Rapids Michigan and Milwaukee Wisconsin
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but if we take a look at the capacity
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side in these markets on the spot Market
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we see that Fargo uh and Joplin they are
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warm markets and they have normal
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capacity around not too much uh Juliet
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Illinois is also warm but there is extra
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capacity around
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and Grand Rapids Michigan and Milwaukee
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Wisconsin these are hot markets by
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themselves but there is some capacity
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surrounding so there is the possibility
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of people deadheading to these areas in
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order to find their next load finally we
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have flat beds and something I'm
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noticing is the three equipment types
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they either saw a 4 Cent increase or 4
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Cent decrease week over week it's very
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interesting so flatbeds actually uh saw
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a 4 Cent decrease week over week in the
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spot rates currently the rate per mile
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is
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$221 on average which is what I'm seeing
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it's horrific year-over-year there's
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absolutely no change over the past 5
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years rates are down
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5% volumes week over week for flat beds
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went down by
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5.5% however they're 40% higher than
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this time last year and in terms of the
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5year average volumes are down 12% now
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let's try to figure out what are the
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better areas for those flat beds well
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for that I make my own Maps using truck
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stop data this is the load map so this
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shows you where the loads come out of
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the darker a state is it is by state the
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darker a state is the more loads come
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out of those areas and the darkest are
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Alabama and Oregon but the question now
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is what about the capacity so the darker
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in area is the more capacity hangs out
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in those States Texas and Florida are
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the ones with a ton of flat beds
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California Georgia North Carolina also
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have a lot of flat beds not as many flat
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beds hanging out in the Pacific
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Northwest as well as the northern states
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and the northeastern states now putting
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these two together we can figure out the
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low to truck ratio averages for those
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States the burgundy red like Texas this
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is severe overc capacity it's very hard
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to negotiate a better rate unless you're
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willing to go to a really really crappy
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area red like Nevada Utah Colorado Auto
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you know it's like a belt almost uh
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those also have over capacity it's less
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than a load per truck anything orange
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like Montana Minnesota this is
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equilibrium there's about 1 to 1 and 1/2
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loads per truck yellow like Arkansas
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this is slight underc capacity it's
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between 1 and 1/2 to two loads per truck
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there anything very light green like
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Maine for example that is under capacity
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2 to three loads per truck main is
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surrounded though by areas that have
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overc capacity so be careful anything
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that is darker green like Mississippi
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Alabama or Washington there is moderate
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underc capacity 3 to 10 loads per truck
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and the only state with severe underc
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capacity right now according to the
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averages is Oregon now something to
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remember I repeated it in every video
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but it's worth mentioning once again for
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those who are new to these videos Oregon
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and washingt Washington are notorious
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for having Brokers post one load 500
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different times which means that it will
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seem like there are more loads than
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there actually are however from personal
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experience yes Washington and Oregon
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there is stuff to choose from so I've
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said this before and I'm going to repeat
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it again sometimes when you're looking
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at the data that I show in the weekly
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Market updates you're looking at this
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data and technically it looks like it's
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better it's showing better signs than
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for example a month ago but when you
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compare it to your own experience it
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makes the data look like a bunch of dooo
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so why does this happen and I feel it
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too this week has been an absolute
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nightmare well that's because data
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focuses on just numbers cold hard
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numbers and doesn't even take into
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consideration anything else like the
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human factor for example to top it off
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it's a game of averages you might feel
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like the data is Justified when you end
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up in a good market and the next day you
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will end up in a bad market and you feel
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like this data is completely off the
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problem is this data looks at everything
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averages it out and doesn't take into
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consideration that different markets
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will be vastly different from one
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another what we need to see is the data
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changing in a positive direction in a
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big way over a prolonged period of time
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in order for it to kind of coincide with
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what we actually experience when we are
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working in the trucking industry anyway
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guys thank you so much for joining me
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and watching I hope you have a fantastic
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rest of your week and weekend stay safe
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stay healthy and keep learning see you
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in the next video
