Why the Market CRASHED Today | Meet Kevin Report [Jan 7].

00:47:38
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=95lS_jVJkgU

概要

TLDRThe video discusses new economic data indicating stagflation, prompting institutions to dump stocks heavily to cover debts, leading to a decline in major indexes including the NASDAQ and stocks like Tesla. There is discussion on Mark Zuckerberg's latest decision to reduce censorship at Meta by adopting community notes, relocating operations to Texas, and removing fact-checkers. Meanwhile, Donald Trump makes bold comments about wanting to take control over Greenland and the Panama Canal, stirring geopolitical debates. Real estate troubles in Austin, Texas are highlighted, suggesting potential losses due to market conditions. The video also touches on the misuse of AI tools in criminal activities, as illustrated by a recent bomb plot in Las Vegas. Concerns over economic policies, the impact of tariff fears on business activities, and market trends are analyzed, indicating potential overstock scenarios and inflating prices for non-stagflationary reasons. Notable mentions also include company's attempts to remain profitable amidst these economic changes, as seen with Carvana renegotiating bond terms, and the technology landscape where AI and indexing appear to be driving force. Lastly, the video advises regular deletion of ChatGPT history to safeguard personal data from potential subpoenas.

収穫

  • 🤑 Stagflation fears are causing institutions to dump stocks, impacting the NASDAQ.
  • 📉 Major stock drops include Tesla and MicroStrategy due to economic concerns.
  • 👨‍💻 Mark Zuckerberg plans to eliminate biased censorship at Meta.
  • 🇺🇸 Donald Trump makes controversial geopolitical statements about Greenland and the Panama Canal.
  • 🏠 Real estate in Austin is experiencing losses due to market and supply-demand issues.
  • ⚖️ Deleting ChatGPT history can protect privacy and security.
  • 🚗 Carvana focuses on debt management and efficiency for profitability.
  • 📊 Funding spreads indicate economic warnings and potential market downturns.
  • 🌍 Tariff fears lead to economic volatility and supply chain reactions.
  • 📈 Inflation concerns may be exaggerated, impacting market perception.

タイムライン

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    The meeting begins with an analysis of recent economic data suggesting stagflation, causing significant stock selloffs by hedge funds and institutions, leading to a plunge in NASDAQ and certain tech stocks. There’s also a mention of real estate concerns in Austin, Texas, and environmental issues in California. The ISM and JOLTs data, which show an unexpected surge in job openings, are examined in detail, yet market reactions seem influenced mostly by stagflation fears rather than the positive hiring signals.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    Stagflation fears are fueled by hotter-than-expected ISM service data, particularly the prices paid index, which indicates potential inflationary pressure. The presenter uses an aviation analogy to caution about potential economic stalling due to the market's reaction to these fears. The FED's potential interest rate hike adds to concerns, despite in-depth analysis showing that majority businesses report unchanged prices.

  • 00:10:00 - 00:15:00

    A discussion on market reactions to perceived stagflation and the fear of the FED's rates remaining high for too long continues. The presenter explores how the market might be interpreting this data incorrectly, using the analogy of extensive buying in Q4 in anticipation of tariffs leading to a false stagflationary signal. There’s skepticism regarding Germany's inflation data, emphasizing the market's often short-term viewpoint.

  • 00:15:00 - 00:20:00

    The video delves into the implications of stagflation concerns on institution debt behavior, highlighting a significant drop in funding spreads as a red flag. This could indicate changes in borrowing behaviors among institutions. There's also a critical look at FED policy shifts potentially being too aggressive, comparing current economic conditions to past recessions.

  • 00:20:00 - 00:25:00

    Exploration of potential selling and debt implications continues, using the funding spreads as a key indicator. There’s discussion on Zuckerberg’s stance against censorship and a move to Texas aimed at political balance. Trump’s international ambitions and potential impacts on domestic policy are also discussed, along with real estate topics involving Austin's market trends.

  • 00:25:00 - 00:30:00

    Analysis extends to contrasting community moderation approaches between platforms, favorably viewing Meta’s adoption of community notes akin to Twitter’s system. Also mentioned are potential implications of people using AI tools for illicit activities, stressing the importance of managing digital footprints by deleting old interactions from AI programs like ChatGPT to avoid legal troubles.

  • 00:30:00 - 00:35:00

    The potential public relations strategy of Meta moving operations to Texas is interpreted as an attempt to shift perceived political biases. Concerns about AI misuse highlight the risks of generative AI in planning attacks, as seen in a recent legal case. Additionally, advice is offered on dealing with digital privacy issues, recommending regular deletion of AI chat histories.

  • 00:35:00 - 00:40:00

    Discussion on carvana’s financial status continues alongside broader real estate market analysis, suggesting implications for long-term holdings amid fluctuating real estate values. The video advises considering the opportunity cost when deciding to sell property early, especially in volatile markets like Austin affected by boom-bust cycles.

  • 00:40:00 - 00:47:38

    Finally, the video covers corporate layoffs and economic indicators, discussing how economic signals can often be misleading. It ends with a humorous touch, comparing the cyclical nature of economic and market behavior to a dad joke about a calendar's expiring days, emphasizing the unpredictable and often overlooked smaller details of market dynamics.

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マインドマップ

ビデオQ&A

  • Why are institutions dumping stocks and what led to the stock market drop?

    The morning's economic data triggered stagflationary fears, leading to institutional dumping of stocks.

  • What is causing the significant warning sign in equity markets?

    It involves concerns about stagflation and the high borrowing and funding costs for stocks contributing to market downturns.

  • Is the current fear of stagflation justified according to the video?

    Market fears of stagflation are inflated, with issues like tariffs and mismatched supply and demand causing temporary spikes.

  • What changes is Mark Zuckerberg making at Meta?

    He plans to adopt community notes, move operations to Texas, and reduce biased censorship by eliminating fact-checkers.

  • What is notable about the Las Vegas Trump Hotel bombing plot?

    It involves using ChatGPT for planning, indicating the possible misuse of AI in criminal activities.

  • What impact are tariff anticipations having according to the ISM report?

    It's about moving workers offshore, tariff fears impacting buying habits, and potential overstock risks.

  • How is Carvana trying to become more profitable?

    They are negotiating with bondholders and working on efficiency improvements to regain financial stability.

  • Why is real estate in Austin, Texas suffering?

    Due to easy building permits, rapid construction, and changed demand post-COVID, prices are falling in markets like Austin.

  • What are Trump's latest geopolitical statements?

    Donald Trump mentioned Greenland and the Panama Canal as areas of interest, possibly using military actions if needed.

  • Why is deleting ChatGPT history recommended?

    Deleting chat history regularly can protect privacy in case of future legal issues or subpoenas.

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  • 00:00:00
    oh boy horrible data on the economy this
  • 00:00:02
    morning suggesting stagflation we're
  • 00:00:04
    going to dive deep to see if that's
  • 00:00:06
    actually what's going on but in the
  • 00:00:09
    meantime it is leading Futures funding
  • 00:00:11
    spreads and hedge funds to indicate that
  • 00:00:15
    institutions are dumping stocks and
  • 00:00:18
    they're not just dumping stocks to sell
  • 00:00:21
    they're dumping to cover all the debt
  • 00:00:23
    they took on to buy stocks in the rally
  • 00:00:26
    over the last 6 months we got to talk
  • 00:00:29
    about this and explained why the NASDAQ
  • 00:00:31
    dropped
  • 00:00:32
    1.78% today why micro strategy was down
  • 00:00:36
    99.9% coin base down 8% paler down 7.8
  • 00:00:40
    Tesla was down
  • 00:00:42
    4% Red Robin cormet Burgers down 6% a
  • 00:00:46
    lot to talk about here Mark Zuck also
  • 00:00:49
    wants to end censorship and move to
  • 00:00:51
    Texas yeah a lot to unpackage on that
  • 00:00:54
    one I'll give you the quick scoop on
  • 00:00:55
    that and give you my opinion on this and
  • 00:00:56
    Donald Trump apparently wants to take
  • 00:00:58
    over Greenland and the Panama Canal and
  • 00:01:01
    may use the military if
  • 00:01:03
    necessary we'll talk about that don't
  • 00:01:06
    worry we we will go deep on these items
  • 00:01:09
    we've also got some folks talking about
  • 00:01:12
    losing money on real estate investments
  • 00:01:14
    in Austin Texas and debating whether
  • 00:01:16
    they should sell the property or rent it
  • 00:01:20
    out I'll give you my opinion on what's
  • 00:01:22
    going on in this video California is
  • 00:01:24
    also on fire again with wins potentially
  • 00:01:28
    up to one 100 mph later today right now
  • 00:01:33
    gusts around 50 to 70 mph knocking down
  • 00:01:37
    power lines especially around the LA
  • 00:01:39
    area causing the Pacific Palisades to
  • 00:01:42
    Now Catch Fire oh boy there is a lot so
  • 00:01:46
    let's get started on this meet Kevin
  • 00:01:48
    report news that makes you
  • 00:01:53
    money first let's start with macro data
  • 00:01:56
    like I said wow this hit hard now I went
  • 00:02:00
    deep on this with course members this
  • 00:02:02
    morning as the data came out we were
  • 00:02:05
    standing by with almost a thousand of
  • 00:02:07
    y'all course members live together and
  • 00:02:09
    many more thousands of you afterwards
  • 00:02:10
    who watched it on replay already but the
  • 00:02:13
    ism numbers and joltz numbers that came
  • 00:02:15
    out this morning really shook markets
  • 00:02:18
    things were green until this data came
  • 00:02:21
    out oh boy so what happened well we had
  • 00:02:24
    more job openings than expected which
  • 00:02:26
    should be a good thing in fact we had
  • 00:02:29
    sign significantly more expansion in
  • 00:02:32
    professional and business services in
  • 00:02:34
    November than we expected now keep in
  • 00:02:36
    mind this jolts data references November
  • 00:02:39
    so it's kind of post Trump election
  • 00:02:42
    people think it's sort of the Trump bump
  • 00:02:44
    and so it indicates White Collar hiring
  • 00:02:47
    which is good because that's been an
  • 00:02:48
    area that's been lagging for a while so
  • 00:02:51
    it's unclear if this is going to keep
  • 00:02:52
    going if these job openings are actually
  • 00:02:55
    going to turn into real hiring but both
  • 00:02:57
    on the seasonally adjusted and on season
  • 00:03:00
    adjusted we saw a significant bump in
  • 00:03:01
    professional and business services
  • 00:03:03
    hiring which seems to be good right this
  • 00:03:05
    this is a good thing we we see more
  • 00:03:07
    potential hiring we did see the quits
  • 00:03:10
    rate move down to 1.9% from 2.1% which
  • 00:03:13
    usually you see that in rougher
  • 00:03:15
    economies people don't want to quit
  • 00:03:17
    their job because it's harder to get a
  • 00:03:18
    new job talked a lot about that
  • 00:03:19
    yesterday and the layoff rate did take
  • 00:03:21
    up a smidge to 1.1% from 1.0 none of
  • 00:03:24
    that really a big deal if anything this
  • 00:03:27
    joltz report should have been nice it
  • 00:03:29
    was kind kind of a good jolts report I
  • 00:03:31
    mean really if you look at what Nick T
  • 00:03:33
    wrote this morning there's really no
  • 00:03:36
    major fear that should be coming out of
  • 00:03:39
    these numbers in terms of the jolts
  • 00:03:42
    report telling us one thing or another
  • 00:03:45
    other than the layoff rate remains low
  • 00:03:47
    the job quitting rate is pretty low
  • 00:03:49
    which we usually only see that tank in a
  • 00:03:51
    recession the hiring rate is pretty low
  • 00:03:54
    as well we're back at 2010 2009 levels
  • 00:03:57
    in the hiring rate which isn't great but
  • 00:03:59
    you did see a take up in the opening
  • 00:04:01
    rate so this should be optimistic where
  • 00:04:04
    the market should be looking at this
  • 00:04:05
    going oh okay you know maybe things are
  • 00:04:07
    turning around maybe the job market is
  • 00:04:09
    stabilizing just like the Federal
  • 00:04:11
    Reserve wants well unfortunately the ism
  • 00:04:15
    data for December which came out this
  • 00:04:17
    morning gave us much better insight into
  • 00:04:21
    what's actually going on and I'll tell
  • 00:04:24
    you it's exactly why the market took a
  • 00:04:26
    little tanky dud lot today and it ain't
  • 00:04:29
    great
  • 00:04:30
    so the ism Services data came out and
  • 00:04:32
    led to almost an instantaneous selloff
  • 00:04:35
    on stagflationary fears why it's simple
  • 00:04:39
    the services index came in a little bit
  • 00:04:41
    hotter than expected no big deal
  • 00:04:43
    everything was a little warmer than
  • 00:04:45
    expected frankly in November and
  • 00:04:47
    December thanks again to the Trump bump
  • 00:04:49
    but the Price's paid section came in at
  • 00:04:52
    64.4 versus 57.5 expected in 582 prior
  • 00:04:57
    in English the market hat hates the idea
  • 00:05:00
    about the FED potentially keeping rates
  • 00:05:03
    higher be for longer because of an
  • 00:05:06
    inflationary impetus so this is really
  • 00:05:09
    bad the employment and New Order numbers
  • 00:05:11
    came out as expected but the market
  • 00:05:13
    absolutely hates seeing that rates could
  • 00:05:16
    go even higher and higher is exactly
  • 00:05:20
    where they went the 10e is almost at 4.7
  • 00:05:24
    which is wild the 2 years only sitting
  • 00:05:27
    at 4.29 but that's also pretty decent ly
  • 00:05:29
    high but when you spread those you get a
  • 00:05:32
    spread of 40 basis points remember what
  • 00:05:35
    happens between 50 to 90 basis points of
  • 00:05:37
    a spread which we're Rising towards pain
  • 00:05:40
    in markets usually in fact sometimes
  • 00:05:43
    actually almost always after an
  • 00:05:45
    inversion of the Y curve of recession
  • 00:05:47
    we're at 40 now so we keep getting
  • 00:05:49
    closer and closer and closer to that
  • 00:05:51
    breaking point now why like what was in
  • 00:05:54
    this data because what this data really
  • 00:05:56
    feels like or what the market is
  • 00:05:58
    reacting with is almost this feeling
  • 00:06:00
    that you're in a and I apologize in
  • 00:06:02
    advance for the constant Aviation
  • 00:06:04
    references but I feel like we're we're
  • 00:06:06
    in a plane and everybody's kind of
  • 00:06:09
    looking at the plane like this where
  • 00:06:11
    it's like okay it's nose up oh it must
  • 00:06:15
    be climbing look at that beautiful plane
  • 00:06:17
    up there look nose up it's climbing and
  • 00:06:20
    then you get some of this hot data it's
  • 00:06:21
    like oh look look it keeps tipping its
  • 00:06:23
    nose up it's nose up oh look it's it's
  • 00:06:25
    it's climbing this is wonderful you know
  • 00:06:28
    everybody looking in from the outside
  • 00:06:29
    including the Federal Reserve is like oh
  • 00:06:31
    look the economy is doing great it's
  • 00:06:33
    gaining altitude we're not coming in for
  • 00:06:34
    a soft Landing we got no Landing baby
  • 00:06:37
    but Pilots look at this or a lot of
  • 00:06:39
    economists looking at the data and
  • 00:06:41
    they're like you're setting up for a
  • 00:06:44
    stall and stalls don't happen gently
  • 00:06:47
    when a plane stalls the nose of that
  • 00:06:50
    sucker
  • 00:06:51
    tanks and things happen
  • 00:06:54
    extremely rapidly in a stall it's not
  • 00:06:57
    good I mean that's also how you cure
  • 00:06:59
    stall you you know NOS down right we can
  • 00:07:01
    talk all about that later we'll do that
  • 00:07:04
    in an aviation video but the point is
  • 00:07:07
    the stall brings you to a ground pretty
  • 00:07:09
    dang rapidly and that's what people are
  • 00:07:11
    afraid of right now that potentially
  • 00:07:14
    everything looks like as we're losing
  • 00:07:16
    that speed and losing momentum it looks
  • 00:07:18
    like we're still chugging along people
  • 00:07:19
    are like see everything's fine but
  • 00:07:21
    really we're in such an unstable
  • 00:07:23
    position that soon we might be
  • 00:07:25
    feeling why oh because the Federal
  • 00:07:28
    Reserve is telling us oh we got to be
  • 00:07:30
    worried about inflation again so we're
  • 00:07:32
    going to keep rates higher for longer do
  • 00:07:34
    we though is that actually what this ISM
  • 00:07:37
    data told us well not in my opinion
  • 00:07:39
    because when I went deep into the ism
  • 00:07:41
    data I found the following I found that
  • 00:07:45
    on average over the last 4 months the
  • 00:07:49
    number of businesses reporting the same
  • 00:07:52
    prices over the last 4 months was 73.6
  • 00:07:57
    5% today in today's report we had
  • 00:08:01
    73.4% in other words below that average
  • 00:08:04
    but let's just call it the same no
  • 00:08:07
    change in prices paid the vast majority
  • 00:08:11
    of businesses almost three out of every
  • 00:08:13
    four businesses said nothing's changing
  • 00:08:16
    in prices okay well then why did this
  • 00:08:18
    index on the right side go up so much
  • 00:08:21
    well it's because the number of
  • 00:08:22
    businesses that reported lower prices
  • 00:08:26
    fell in December only 2.9
  • 00:08:30
    and you had a little bit of an uptake
  • 00:08:31
    like in September of the percentage
  • 00:08:33
    higher and that led this index higher
  • 00:08:36
    now this doesn't actually suggests that
  • 00:08:38
    there's a rapid expansion of prices it
  • 00:08:40
    suggests that in certain fringes prices
  • 00:08:44
    are moving and we're getting volatility
  • 00:08:46
    in this data so the market is
  • 00:08:48
    potentially responding to stagflationary
  • 00:08:51
    fears that aren't actually
  • 00:08:54
    stagflationary I mean look at Germany
  • 00:08:57
    Germany just came out with a hot CPI
  • 00:09:00
    report an inflation report everybody's
  • 00:09:01
    like oh my gosh I thought Germany was in
  • 00:09:04
    recession this must be
  • 00:09:06
    stagflationary well nobody actually
  • 00:09:09
    Dives a little bit deeper did you know
  • 00:09:11
    this I'm going to guess you didn't and
  • 00:09:13
    it is okay but did you know that Germany
  • 00:09:16
    doesn't actually report core
  • 00:09:19
    CPI maybe you did maybe didn't doesn't
  • 00:09:22
    matter the point is we're reacting to
  • 00:09:25
    Germany's hot CPI and when we pull back
  • 00:09:28
    the layer we go oh that's because of
  • 00:09:31
    food and energy and why are Energy
  • 00:09:33
    prices going up well natural gas is
  • 00:09:35
    skyrocketing why because it's winter and
  • 00:09:37
    there are reports of potential polar
  • 00:09:39
    winds coming in again thing that happens
  • 00:09:42
    every few years it leads natural gas
  • 00:09:44
    prices whether through speculation or
  • 00:09:46
    reality to Skyrocket that's just what's
  • 00:09:49
    been happening so what a surprise but
  • 00:09:52
    the point is the market doesn't really
  • 00:09:54
    care in the short term the Market's just
  • 00:09:57
    going to trade based off of what
  • 00:09:59
    whatever the market thinks at that time
  • 00:10:02
    and the move and and what's working at
  • 00:10:04
    the time and the move that's working
  • 00:10:06
    right now is yep everything
  • 00:10:08
    stagflationary sell bonds and
  • 00:10:11
    inflation's coming back so that is
  • 00:10:14
    what's taking hold right now and once
  • 00:10:16
    that trade gets going it accelerates
  • 00:10:19
    there's a problem with that we're going
  • 00:10:20
    to talk about that problem in just a
  • 00:10:22
    moment and it has a lot to do with debt
  • 00:10:25
    because there is a chart that is warning
  • 00:10:27
    of really big change in the ways that
  • 00:10:30
    institutions are responding to the
  • 00:10:32
    amount of debt that they have
  • 00:10:33
    outstanding this is a big red flag we
  • 00:10:36
    got to talk about it along with what
  • 00:10:37
    Donald Trump said today what's going on
  • 00:10:39
    with
  • 00:10:40
    Facebook and the real estate topic a lot
  • 00:10:44
    but before we keep going on some of
  • 00:10:46
    those other topics we really got to
  • 00:10:47
    finish this ISM talk because yes there
  • 00:10:50
    are stagflationary fears but I want you
  • 00:10:52
    to look at some of the commentary that's
  • 00:10:54
    coming out over why there might be some
  • 00:10:57
    fears about prices going up let's look
  • 00:10:59
    at what the ism report actually said
  • 00:11:02
    that respondents are actually talking
  • 00:11:04
    about when it comes to inflation prices
  • 00:11:07
    or business activity and services quote
  • 00:11:10
    preparations are underway to diversify
  • 00:11:12
    Supply in anticipation for tariffs all
  • 00:11:16
    right if in Q4 you buy a bunch of goods
  • 00:11:19
    or you basically set yourself up for
  • 00:11:21
    tariffs to affect your business you
  • 00:11:23
    might Overstock in the fourth quarter
  • 00:11:26
    this is bad because if you don't sell
  • 00:11:28
    out all of that in the first quarter you
  • 00:11:32
    end up with too much stuff too many
  • 00:11:34
    goods and supplies or service time and
  • 00:11:36
    then you have to cut your prices and you
  • 00:11:38
    actually end up with deflation so it's
  • 00:11:40
    weird but the market always seems to
  • 00:11:42
    work in these really contrarian ways
  • 00:11:44
    today everybody's like oh no oh no oh no
  • 00:11:47
    stagflation mark my words if things keep
  • 00:11:50
    going the way they are we'll be in q1 or
  • 00:11:52
    Q2 and we'll be screaming about
  • 00:11:54
    deflation because maybe the tariffs
  • 00:11:57
    didn't conduct the or cause the
  • 00:11:59
    inflation that we were expecting or
  • 00:12:01
    because people just overstocked in the
  • 00:12:02
    fourth quarter because of fears over
  • 00:12:06
    tariffs which may not even come we
  • 00:12:08
    talked about Trump and tariffs yesterday
  • 00:12:10
    but I'll tell you this I know Trump
  • 00:12:12
    looks at the stock market every single
  • 00:12:14
    day if the stock market's red he ain't
  • 00:12:17
    going to do tariffs because he'll
  • 00:12:19
    threaten tariffs but he'll be too
  • 00:12:20
    nervous about the market crashing and
  • 00:12:23
    then that being a scar in his
  • 00:12:26
    legacy so take a look at this this is
  • 00:12:30
    Extreme here's a construction industry
  • 00:12:33
    tariff threats from incoming admin from
  • 00:12:37
    the incoming Administration have been
  • 00:12:39
    making suppliers reluctant to hold
  • 00:12:42
    pricing for more than a year as projects
  • 00:12:44
    can take 2 years plus budgeting is
  • 00:12:47
    getting difficult similar to
  • 00:12:49
    2021 and 2022 when supply chain
  • 00:12:53
    disruptions caused chaos in pricing wait
  • 00:12:55
    a minute so you're telling me the crisis
  • 00:12:58
    we're seeing right now in stagflation is
  • 00:13:01
    because of fear that maybe there will be
  • 00:13:04
    tariffs and everybody's buying stuff
  • 00:13:06
    like crazy now well if that's true then
  • 00:13:10
    this prices paid level going up new
  • 00:13:13
    orders level going up and basically you
  • 00:13:15
    know numbers going up like ISM you know
  • 00:13:17
    manufacturing or Services the headline
  • 00:13:19
    numbers going up those are all fugazi
  • 00:13:22
    built up for the fourth quarter and I
  • 00:13:26
    don't know that's going to repeat in q1
  • 00:13:28
    because people are prepared preparing
  • 00:13:29
    for that uncertainty and apparently in
  • 00:13:31
    an extreme way to where now all of a
  • 00:13:33
    sudden there are quite literally it's
  • 00:13:36
    listed in a different section of this
  • 00:13:38
    ISM report but backlogs of containers
  • 00:13:42
    that need to be unloaded because of so
  • 00:13:44
    much buying now originally or I should
  • 00:13:47
    say ordinarily we would look at that and
  • 00:13:48
    say oh this is a sign of a really strong
  • 00:13:50
    economy right really good economy but so
  • 00:13:53
    far everything everybody is telling us
  • 00:13:55
    is it's because of tariffs not because
  • 00:13:57
    of massive demand if anything what we
  • 00:14:00
    see is we're moving workers offshore to
  • 00:14:03
    save on costs that's companies taking it
  • 00:14:06
    in the margin because their pee's too
  • 00:14:08
    small we are concerned about tariff
  • 00:14:10
    activity but we're hoping for the best
  • 00:14:13
    there seems to be a lot of uncertainty
  • 00:14:15
    about tariffs and purchasing decisions a
  • 00:14:18
    lot of weight and C customers are
  • 00:14:21
    slowing
  • 00:14:23
    down okay so a lot of anticipation of
  • 00:14:26
    tariffs leading to potentially a bump of
  • 00:14:28
    these num numbers and some skewing of
  • 00:14:31
    numbers that on average are not
  • 00:14:34
    stagflationary and forget the average
  • 00:14:36
    for a moment when you actually read
  • 00:14:38
    company earnings calls you should know
  • 00:14:40
    that we're not in a reinflation era but
  • 00:14:45
    that's not going to stop markets from
  • 00:14:46
    Trading as if we are the problem is the
  • 00:14:50
    more the markets trade as if they're
  • 00:14:53
    stagflation the higher bond yields go
  • 00:14:56
    all we're doing is driving up the nose
  • 00:14:58
    of of that plane more and more and more
  • 00:15:01
    and the more we do that the more we're
  • 00:15:02
    pulling back on the stick the more
  • 00:15:04
    violent the stall is going to be and
  • 00:15:06
    those rates will come down plummeting
  • 00:15:08
    rapidly
  • 00:15:10
    unfortunately and likely with a
  • 00:15:12
    recession so
  • 00:15:14
    anyway what does all of this mean well
  • 00:15:18
    in my opinion the pendulum is swinging
  • 00:15:20
    to far to the stagflationary side
  • 00:15:23
    because of reports like this now the
  • 00:15:28
    bottom line here is the setup should be
  • 00:15:31
    a cause for concern and when we look at
  • 00:15:34
    something like the funding markets we
  • 00:15:36
    could see what's going on with
  • 00:15:39
    institutionalsales take a look at this
  • 00:15:42
    this is called a funding spreads chart
  • 00:15:46
    I'm going to try to explain this as
  • 00:15:47
    simply as
  • 00:15:48
    possible let's pretend for a moment that
  • 00:15:51
    instead of saying funding spreads this
  • 00:15:54
    said cost to borrow okay that's a little
  • 00:15:57
    bit easier to understand
  • 00:15:59
    when nobody wants to borrow debt borrow
  • 00:16:03
    you know money to buy stocks what do you
  • 00:16:05
    think happens to the cost to borrow well
  • 00:16:08
    with plummets because it's like oh
  • 00:16:10
    nobody's borrowing all right let's lower
  • 00:16:12
    the cost until people borrow again what
  • 00:16:14
    do you think happens when everybody
  • 00:16:15
    wants to borrow debt money to go buy
  • 00:16:18
    stocks well the cost to borrow goes up
  • 00:16:20
    okay the red line is the cost to borrow
  • 00:16:23
    line up up up up up up up up up up up up
  • 00:16:26
    up notice how as the cost to borrow goes
  • 00:16:29
    up because more people are taking on
  • 00:16:31
    more debt institutions hedge funds
  • 00:16:34
    retail you name it everybody's going in
  • 00:16:36
    on margin because the stock market can't
  • 00:16:38
    fall I literally see comments of people
  • 00:16:40
    saying things
  • 00:16:43
    like you know Kevin I don't think there
  • 00:16:46
    could be a market correction
  • 00:16:48
    because everybody has an app in their
  • 00:16:50
    pocket today where they can buy stocks
  • 00:16:52
    and they're just going to buy the debt
  • 00:16:55
    so therefore there could never be a
  • 00:16:56
    stock market correction again
  • 00:17:02
    okay there's sure as hell of a sign
  • 00:17:04
    enough for
  • 00:17:07
    me
  • 00:17:09
    anyway as you notice when the line goes
  • 00:17:12
    up it implies more people are borrowing
  • 00:17:14
    to go buy stocks and wow what a surprise
  • 00:17:16
    the S&P 500 went up with that line well
  • 00:17:19
    what's happened since December 18th well
  • 00:17:22
    according to John Marshall of
  • 00:17:24
    S&T who has published a quote
  • 00:17:26
    significant warning the funding spread
  • 00:17:29
    plummeting is a really big red flag the
  • 00:17:33
    reason you have this really big red flag
  • 00:17:36
    is because on December 18th Jerome
  • 00:17:39
    Powell flip-flopped and it marked the
  • 00:17:41
    peak the flip-flop in the funding
  • 00:17:43
    spreads level on December 18th Drome
  • 00:17:45
    Powell told us that they want to keep
  • 00:17:47
    rates higher in essence because of
  • 00:17:50
    impending tariffs two months before that
  • 00:17:53
    he told us we're just going to wait to
  • 00:17:55
    see what happens with tariffs and then
  • 00:17:56
    we'll react all of a sudden now it's
  • 00:17:59
    yeah uh we're going to try to Stave off
  • 00:18:01
    the inflation ahead of time so we'll
  • 00:18:03
    just keep rates higher for longer
  • 00:18:04
    basically and pencil and fuel rate Cuts
  • 00:18:06
    well that led the markets to go oh my
  • 00:18:08
    gosh fed you all could be making a
  • 00:18:11
    massive and terrible mistake keeping
  • 00:18:13
    rates way too high for way too long and
  • 00:18:16
    ultimately push the economy into that
  • 00:18:18
    stall Point breaking point and
  • 00:18:21
    potentially even into an unrecoverable
  • 00:18:23
    stall because we have so little
  • 00:18:26
    altitude that red line is a warning
  • 00:18:30
    sign Mr Marshall I'm going to show you
  • 00:18:33
    what he wrote I don't want you to think
  • 00:18:34
    it's me it's Mr Marshall Marshall
  • 00:18:36
    Marshall he wrote this yesterday mind
  • 00:18:38
    you before the market started selling
  • 00:18:40
    off
  • 00:18:41
    today we view this chart as a
  • 00:18:43
    significant warning sign for Equity
  • 00:18:45
    investors the December move was not just
  • 00:18:48
    year-end related the episode continues
  • 00:18:50
    to look like a December 2021 move in
  • 00:18:53
    positioning when worries about monetary
  • 00:18:56
    policy triggered professional investors
  • 00:18:57
    selling ahead of the 10-month decline in
  • 00:19:00
    the S&P 500 in other words he's
  • 00:19:03
    forecasting a 10-month decline just like
  • 00:19:05
    in 2022 he also says while Equity
  • 00:19:08
    valuations have been historically high
  • 00:19:10
    for many months this is the first time
  • 00:19:11
    we're seeing significant selling in both
  • 00:19:13
    of these positioning measures in years
  • 00:19:16
    hedge funds selling equities in each of
  • 00:19:18
    the past five sessions and at the
  • 00:19:20
    fastest Pace in the past seven months 7
  • 00:19:23
    plus months uh and then of course that
  • 00:19:24
    funding
  • 00:19:25
    chart this is a red flag this is not
  • 00:19:29
    good and so it's something to pay
  • 00:19:30
    attention to now is it saying you know
  • 00:19:32
    Run for the hills sell everything no of
  • 00:19:35
    course not I I don't ever like to come
  • 00:19:37
    across as an extremist in fact I always
  • 00:19:39
    like to come across as suggesting hey
  • 00:19:41
    I'm going to keep giving you my advice
  • 00:19:42
    every single day and one place you can
  • 00:19:44
    sign up for for free for more of this
  • 00:19:46
    sort of stuff make sure you get my Alpha
  • 00:19:48
    report every morning uh the market is
  • 00:19:50
    open just click here if you're us or
  • 00:19:52
    canidate or here if you're International
  • 00:19:53
    you can also get my Daily Wealth email
  • 00:19:55
    if you want you can click on that it's
  • 00:19:56
    over at meetkevin.com you can check uh
  • 00:19:58
    check out the website I actually built
  • 00:20:01
    the website myself so don't make fun of
  • 00:20:03
    me but I kind
  • 00:20:05
    of I like doing stuff myself sometimes
  • 00:20:10
    but anyway so uh let me know if there
  • 00:20:12
    are any bugs I will fix them but anyway
  • 00:20:16
    uh so sorry for all the aviation
  • 00:20:18
    analogies let's keep moving on with
  • 00:20:21
    what's really important oh history what
  • 00:20:24
    does history tell us usually when the
  • 00:20:26
    Federal Reserve starts cutting rates
  • 00:20:27
    rates fall but rates have now risen 110
  • 00:20:31
    basis points as the Federal Reserve cut
  • 00:20:34
    interest rates 100 basis points there
  • 00:20:37
    were two times this has happened in
  • 00:20:38
    history before one was 1998 which did
  • 00:20:42
    not come after an inverted yield curve
  • 00:20:45
    and and it came while employment was
  • 00:20:47
    expanding the 27 weeks unemployed number
  • 00:20:49
    was actually declining like things were
  • 00:20:50
    actually good in the economy in '
  • 00:20:53
    98 the other time absent that good data
  • 00:20:57
    was 2001 leaving us similar to the 2001
  • 00:21:01
    level in history which isn't great
  • 00:21:04
    because obviously that led to about an
  • 00:21:05
    18mon sell-off in the stock market and a
  • 00:21:08
    lot of people pissed about investing in
  • 00:21:10
    stocks all of a sudden all the people
  • 00:21:12
    with apps in their pockets are pulling
  • 00:21:14
    the apps out anymore Howard marks in his
  • 00:21:17
    latest credit memo has five cautionary
  • 00:21:19
    warnings valuations an enthusiasm bubble
  • 00:21:23
    around AI mag 7 concentration passive
  • 00:21:26
    index buying and suggest that a sharp
  • 00:21:29
    and sudden selloff is possible just like
  • 00:21:31
    thec bubble which to me feels exactly
  • 00:21:34
    like the jolts measure or not the jolts
  • 00:21:36
    the stall measure I've been talking
  • 00:21:38
    about anyway enough about the market
  • 00:21:40
    let's talk a little bit more micro Mark
  • 00:21:43
    Zuckerberg had a lot to say today about
  • 00:21:46
    censorship in fact they're now going to
  • 00:21:49
    copy Community notes this is very
  • 00:21:51
    interesting he literally shouted out X I
  • 00:21:55
    mean obviously everybody was going to
  • 00:21:56
    make the comparison anyway so we got
  • 00:21:57
    ahead of that by saying hey we're to do
  • 00:21:58
    community notes kind of like how X does
  • 00:22:00
    it we're going to get rid of fact
  • 00:22:02
    Checkers and we're going to simplify our
  • 00:22:04
    policies because complex systems censor
  • 00:22:07
    things mistakenly too much and fact
  • 00:22:09
    Checkers are too biased according to
  • 00:22:13
    reports from employees inside of meta a
  • 00:22:16
    lot of people say that inside of meta
  • 00:22:18
    are suggesting that meta is trying to
  • 00:22:21
    suck up to trumpan and that meta is
  • 00:22:23
    sending a message that facts no longer
  • 00:22:25
    matter and that there's going to be an
  • 00:22:27
    influx of racist and transphobic
  • 00:22:29
    content but Mark suck says hey we're
  • 00:22:32
    just going to bring politics back we're
  • 00:22:34
    going to get rid of the filters we'll
  • 00:22:36
    solely focus on illegal and high
  • 00:22:39
    severity issues like serious threats
  • 00:22:41
    that are are illegal even on X like
  • 00:22:44
    threatening to kill someone for example
  • 00:22:46
    we'll remove that but on the rest we'll
  • 00:22:48
    just Community note stuff and I have to
  • 00:22:52
    say my opinion this is actually a great
  • 00:22:55
    thing uh I am as somebody who has the
  • 00:22:58
    ability to write Community notes I've
  • 00:23:00
    written very few Community notes but I
  • 00:23:03
    like to read them what I really enjoy
  • 00:23:05
    about having that feature though is I
  • 00:23:07
    get to see uh proposed Community notes
  • 00:23:11
    for example here Customs and Border
  • 00:23:12
    Protection announced They seized a
  • 00:23:14
    rocket launcher and two rocket propelled
  • 00:23:15
    grenades hidden in a car headed to
  • 00:23:18
    Mexico again these Rockets were heading
  • 00:23:20
    to Mexico from the US okay so if I click
  • 00:23:23
    on the proposed Community note the
  • 00:23:25
    Rockets featured in the photo lack the
  • 00:23:26
    booster charge and are inert
  • 00:23:29
    nonfunctional the RPG shown as
  • 00:23:31
    non-functional and is a replica training
  • 00:23:33
    aid I mean that's kind of a useful note
  • 00:23:36
    and then they sort of give you a link
  • 00:23:38
    over here in terms of like I guess where
  • 00:23:40
    you could buy inert RPG replicas kind of
  • 00:23:44
    interesting I like that extra detail I I
  • 00:23:46
    wish some more of these proposed
  • 00:23:48
    Community notes were visible and what I
  • 00:23:50
    really like is when you go through this
  • 00:23:52
    sometimes you could just see a uh like a
  • 00:23:55
    debate going on in the community notes
  • 00:23:57
    like here I'll just look at Elon Musk
  • 00:23:59
    for example if we go to Elon he he gets
  • 00:24:01
    community noted like every single post
  • 00:24:03
    okay there first one see there's a
  • 00:24:05
    debate over here oh like the time
  • 00:24:07
    starmer called Donald Trump a racist and
  • 00:24:10
    then you get responses over here uh
  • 00:24:12
    adding some details about who's who uh
  • 00:24:15
    starmer has supported senior members of
  • 00:24:17
    the labor party and people leaving links
  • 00:24:18
    and citations to things you can see
  • 00:24:20
    these go on for I mean there are like
  • 00:24:22
    six or seven of these and then you
  • 00:24:24
    always get these people who just write
  • 00:24:27
    nnn which is no note needed no note
  • 00:24:30
    needed stop abusing Community notes
  • 00:24:32
    honestly it's kind of like a messy Forum
  • 00:24:35
    but usually the top ones add the most
  • 00:24:38
    context and people can kind of vote up
  • 00:24:41
    or down on whether these are useful or
  • 00:24:44
    not and it's kind of a cool system
  • 00:24:46
    because it mostly gives people an equal
  • 00:24:48
    voice especially if you're a community
  • 00:24:50
    notor uh which I mean theoretically
  • 00:24:52
    anybody should be able to just join the
  • 00:24:54
    community notes I put a little app in
  • 00:24:56
    and in like 3 weeks I was approved
  • 00:24:58
    didn't do anything special and I haven't
  • 00:24:59
    done anything with it but I think it's
  • 00:25:01
    kind of cool so anyway uh I'm a big fan
  • 00:25:04
    of that also Mark Zuck slammed
  • 00:25:06
    California by saying that they're going
  • 00:25:09
    to move their safety and content
  • 00:25:11
    moderators to Texas instead of
  • 00:25:12
    California where there will be quote
  • 00:25:14
    less concern uh over the bias of our
  • 00:25:17
    teams I think this is mostly a PR move
  • 00:25:20
    it's basically saying hey everybody
  • 00:25:22
    thinks that because we're company based
  • 00:25:24
    in California we're a woke company maybe
  • 00:25:26
    that's true to some extent uh so by
  • 00:25:28
    moving our safety and content to Texas
  • 00:25:31
    that'll balance us
  • 00:25:32
    out I don't know if that'll actually
  • 00:25:34
    make any difference at all but big fan
  • 00:25:37
    of using well
  • 00:25:40
    frankly Community notes now this is
  • 00:25:43
    interesting the Associated Press just
  • 00:25:45
    reported that the new orle sorry not the
  • 00:25:48
    New Orleans the uh cyber truck bomber
  • 00:25:51
    outside of the Las Vegas Trump Hotel
  • 00:25:54
    apparently used generative AI including
  • 00:25:57
    chat GPT to help plan the attack now
  • 00:26:00
    that's an interesting
  • 00:26:02
    one uh they don't really give details on
  • 00:26:05
    this now not at all that's just sort of
  • 00:26:07
    like the intro paragraph and then they
  • 00:26:09
    just give a summary of what happened but
  • 00:26:11
    apparently searches on chat GPT indicate
  • 00:26:13
    he was looking for information on
  • 00:26:15
    explosives ammunition where fireworks
  • 00:26:18
    were legal where he could buy them uh
  • 00:26:21
    and and some other aspects again no
  • 00:26:23
    exact quotes given just rough ideas that
  • 00:26:26
    he was using chat GPT to help play is
  • 00:26:28
    attack this is actually one of the
  • 00:26:30
    reasons that I've mentioned uh to a lot
  • 00:26:33
    of people before especially those in
  • 00:26:36
    finance or banking that it's actually
  • 00:26:38
    not a bad idea that if you use services
  • 00:26:43
    like GPT that you go into them every so
  • 00:26:46
    often and just delete all your chats
  • 00:26:50
    because I do believe that in the future
  • 00:26:53
    these chats are going to be subpoena and
  • 00:26:56
    so if you ever get into a lawsuit and
  • 00:26:58
    you know you put all of your weaknesses
  • 00:27:01
    or whatever into chat GPT what if
  • 00:27:03
    somebody can one I don't even know if I
  • 00:27:05
    can delete it it's not giving me any
  • 00:27:07
    kind of confirmation that things are
  • 00:27:08
    deleted oh no oh
  • 00:27:11
    no who knows maybe it's all stored
  • 00:27:13
    somewhere anyway right and this is why
  • 00:27:15
    people say turn off the memory in in the
  • 00:27:17
    settings for these sort of things but
  • 00:27:18
    just keep that in mind that your data is
  • 00:27:22
    out there when you use these apps and
  • 00:27:25
    that's sort of a good reminder to go in
  • 00:27:26
    there and uh uh you know delete some of
  • 00:27:30
    the history that you have I like doing
  • 00:27:32
    it uh and uh I it actually worked it
  • 00:27:35
    deleted all my history I think it's a
  • 00:27:36
    good idea for everybody to do that every
  • 00:27:39
    so often maybe even weekly okay maybe
  • 00:27:42
    not so important for everybody but we'll
  • 00:27:43
    see anyway so that's a little bit on
  • 00:27:46
    meta I mean really is it a big deal yeah
  • 00:27:49
    it kind of is I mean it's a win for Elon
  • 00:27:51
    Musk it's a win for Donald Trump it's
  • 00:27:53
    basically a shout out to musk and Trump
  • 00:27:56
    it'll probably help move the stock up
  • 00:27:58
    it'll make the stock maybe to some seem
  • 00:28:00
    sort of less woke and maybe you could
  • 00:28:01
    even put the meta stock in a trumpan
  • 00:28:04
    ETFs or whatever right so it's probably
  • 00:28:06
    a good move all around I think Zuck did
  • 00:28:08
    a great thing here and I'm a big fan of
  • 00:28:10
    the community noting idea because then
  • 00:28:12
    the public can sort of vote up the best
  • 00:28:14
    notes I like that and I think Community
  • 00:28:16
    noting is a lot better than what you've
  • 00:28:18
    seen over at Wikipedia which is
  • 00:28:19
    basically just controlled by people who
  • 00:28:22
    mostly lean left at least in my
  • 00:28:24
    experience okay A little bit of drama
  • 00:28:27
    circulating what's going going on with
  • 00:28:28
    carvana this is mostly because of the
  • 00:28:31
    Hindenburg uh hit piece suggesting that
  • 00:28:34
    some of their growth numbers have been
  • 00:28:36
    entirely misleading or potentially even
  • 00:28:38
    fraudulent the CEO went on to CNBC for
  • 00:28:42
    an interview and when he was asked about
  • 00:28:44
    how they're becoming more profitable he
  • 00:28:46
    basically said they're working on
  • 00:28:48
    efficiencies at the company uh and
  • 00:28:51
    basically said hey actually I shouldn't
  • 00:28:53
    even say basically he said I don't want
  • 00:28:55
    to bore you with the details of how
  • 00:28:56
    we're becoming more profitable and so
  • 00:28:58
    that led a lot of people to sort of
  • 00:28:59
    scratch their heads going I don't I
  • 00:29:00
    don't I don't know is is like is it that
  • 00:29:03
    hard to find out like to explain is it
  • 00:29:06
    that complicated so what are you doing
  • 00:29:08
    that's making you more profitable then
  • 00:29:10
    does Hindenburg have a
  • 00:29:13
    point all I know is carvana was up 5%
  • 00:29:16
    today so I don't know how much of a
  • 00:29:18
    difference is making it's down 1% year
  • 00:29:20
    to date obviously it's down from its 256
  • 00:29:22
    Peak but it's way up from where it was
  • 00:29:24
    at like $4 a share uh at the end of 202
  • 00:29:28
    to when the company was about to go
  • 00:29:30
    bankrupt had it not been for
  • 00:29:32
    renegotiating with its Bond holders they
  • 00:29:35
    would have probably gone bankrupt and
  • 00:29:37
    obviously in renegotiating they were
  • 00:29:39
    able to reestablish themselves so good
  • 00:29:41
    for them and we could do a deep dive
  • 00:29:43
    video on carvana leave me a comment in
  • 00:29:45
    the uh notes down below if you want but
  • 00:29:48
    just a super quick look at what's going
  • 00:29:50
    on at carvana you could definitely see
  • 00:29:52
    growth in Topline Revenue which people
  • 00:29:55
    generally like looking for this is a 30
  • 00:29:58
    % growth rate in retail vehicle sales
  • 00:30:02
    and when you look at net income you can
  • 00:30:04
    see net income well is a lot less but
  • 00:30:09
    part of that has to do with uh some of
  • 00:30:12
    their debt extinguishment and the gain
  • 00:30:15
    that they realized because of their debt
  • 00:30:17
    extinguishment uh so they were actually
  • 00:30:19
    if you remove this losing money from
  • 00:30:22
    their operations at the end of 2023 and
  • 00:30:24
    they're actually making about 69 cents
  • 00:30:27
    in a month period which isn't bad
  • 00:30:30
    because it means they're making some
  • 00:30:32
    money again which is great as far as
  • 00:30:35
    their valuation well this is something
  • 00:30:38
    that a lot of people have different
  • 00:30:39
    opinions on look at it this way if you
  • 00:30:42
    take carvana as a company trading for
  • 00:30:44
    $198 a share with
  • 00:30:47
    $1.37 of earnings per share expected for
  • 00:30:49
    Q4 you know ending December 31st which
  • 00:30:52
    is already over they're trading for
  • 00:30:53
    about 144 times earnings In fairness
  • 00:30:57
    though they are expected to grow
  • 00:30:59
    earnings in excess of 70% per year for
  • 00:31:03
    the next 4 years so that only puts them
  • 00:31:07
    at about a tweg with that really high PE
  • 00:31:10
    ratio if they could keep that growth
  • 00:31:12
    going so who knows maybe a deep dive for
  • 00:31:16
    carvana is in store and leave me a
  • 00:31:18
    comment down below if that's what you're
  • 00:31:19
    looking for as far as China it's
  • 00:31:21
    interesting to look at this chart to see
  • 00:31:24
    what's going on with the percentage of
  • 00:31:26
    vehicles in production
  • 00:31:28
    in China uh especially as a percentage
  • 00:31:31
    of Next Generation Vehicles look at this
  • 00:31:34
    in 2023 China produced over
  • 00:31:37
    33% of all Next Generation which would
  • 00:31:40
    be hybrid or battery electric vehicles
  • 00:31:42
    in the world and this number is
  • 00:31:44
    skyrocketing I would guess that if it
  • 00:31:47
    weren't for restrictions on importing
  • 00:31:49
    Chinese vehicles into America we'
  • 00:31:51
    probably all be driving Chinese vehicles
  • 00:31:54
    then a real estate question came up so
  • 00:31:57
    on on Reddit somebody posted the
  • 00:31:59
    following we need to sell our house that
  • 00:32:01
    we bought less than 2 years ago that's
  • 00:32:03
    always a bad idea the selling costs
  • 00:32:05
    alone to sell your house are insane I
  • 00:32:08
    don't recommend this we needed to sell
  • 00:32:11
    our house that we bought less than 2
  • 00:32:12
    years ago we are looking at a loss of
  • 00:32:14
    around
  • 00:32:15
    $22,000 with where the market is right
  • 00:32:17
    now in Austin so honestly their loss
  • 00:32:19
    will probably be greater than this once
  • 00:32:21
    they start getting hit with requests for
  • 00:32:23
    repairs vacancy moving cost Furniture
  • 00:32:26
    cost repairs some needs a roof
  • 00:32:28
    replacement honestly they'll probably
  • 00:32:29
    lose somewhere around 50 Grand how
  • 00:32:32
    devastating is this we were first-time
  • 00:32:34
    home buyers and admittedly didn't quite
  • 00:32:35
    know what we were doing have any of you
  • 00:32:37
    taking a taken a loss like this we could
  • 00:32:40
    rent it out however the rent wouldn't
  • 00:32:41
    cover the mortgage we would be at a loss
  • 00:32:43
    of about $3600 over the year if we
  • 00:32:45
    rented it out and then sold it next year
  • 00:32:47
    we would probably be at less of a loss
  • 00:32:49
    however it could take a while to sell
  • 00:32:51
    and I'm not sure I want to gamble having
  • 00:32:52
    two mortgages at once any thoughts or
  • 00:32:54
    advice all right look here's the the
  • 00:32:58
    answer Rachel
  • 00:33:00
    silver first I don't know what your
  • 00:33:02
    personal income situation is but if yall
  • 00:33:05
    can afford the $3,600 a month in my
  • 00:33:08
    opinion consider this $3600 a month an
  • 00:33:11
    investment into the property because
  • 00:33:13
    frankly you're probably paying down more
  • 00:33:15
    than this in principle every single year
  • 00:33:18
    if you're paying down $500 a month in
  • 00:33:20
    principal on your loan you're probably
  • 00:33:23
    paying down $6,000 off of your loan
  • 00:33:26
    every single year and you're only
  • 00:33:28
    putting $3,600 into it so you're
  • 00:33:31
    actually up you're just rearranging
  • 00:33:33
    where your money is in the house piggy
  • 00:33:36
    bank or in your savings account piggy
  • 00:33:37
    bank or I don't know in your sock drawer
  • 00:33:39
    or wherever you keep your extra cash the
  • 00:33:41
    downside of selling it now is frankly
  • 00:33:44
    your loss is going to be a lot higher
  • 00:33:45
    than this again I expect it's going to
  • 00:33:47
    be $50,000 but let's just say your loss
  • 00:33:49
    is
  • 00:33:50
    $222,000 well divide $22,000 which some
  • 00:33:53
    of this you've already lost because of
  • 00:33:55
    equity uh potentially but it could also
  • 00:33:58
    just represent the selling cost 2 and 1
  • 00:34:00
    half% to One agent you know maybe 1% if
  • 00:34:02
    you hire a discount agent yourself but
  • 00:34:04
    then you still got 1% for escort title
  • 00:34:06
    you still got to pay uh for repairs and
  • 00:34:08
    vacancy and transition cost you're going
  • 00:34:10
    to be spending somewhere around 6 to 8%
  • 00:34:12
    to sell your house that's probably where
  • 00:34:14
    most of this loss is so if you kept it
  • 00:34:16
    you're probably at zero which is good
  • 00:34:19
    but if you sell it let's just say it's
  • 00:34:21
    22k well divide that by 3600 it would
  • 00:34:24
    take you 6 years of paying 36 $600 to
  • 00:34:29
    get to a $2,200 $222,000 loss so just
  • 00:34:32
    keep it for 6 years you think it'll
  • 00:34:34
    probably go up again in 6 years I don't
  • 00:34:35
    know maybe not it's Austin after all
  • 00:34:38
    what happened in Austin Well Austin is
  • 00:34:40
    an easy place to build one of the
  • 00:34:42
    reasons why my real estate company house
  • 00:34:45
    Haack did not buy in Texas specifically
  • 00:34:48
    in Austin is because Austin was a covid
  • 00:34:51
    Boom Town Co boom toown where everybody
  • 00:34:53
    moved to because of the freedom away
  • 00:34:55
    from mask mandates and you know America
  • 00:34:58
    work from home
  • 00:35:00
    whatever it's also very easy to build so
  • 00:35:03
    when the population shot up during Co a
  • 00:35:06
    lot of people got into speculating on
  • 00:35:08
    building in Texas and now you have an
  • 00:35:10
    excess of Supply because now since it
  • 00:35:13
    takes two to three years to get that
  • 00:35:14
    construction to come online you
  • 00:35:16
    basically had a bunch of people come in
  • 00:35:18
    prices shot up now you don't have a
  • 00:35:20
    bunch of people coming in but Supply
  • 00:35:22
    real estate supply has shot up because
  • 00:35:25
    all that building is coming online so
  • 00:35:27
    now this mismatch is leading prices to
  • 00:35:31
    fall could it keep going of course in my
  • 00:35:35
    opinion keep it forget about it you got
  • 00:35:37
    a built-in 30-year fix trate mortgage
  • 00:35:39
    and if you got it two years ago honestly
  • 00:35:41
    you probably got a pretty good rate on
  • 00:35:42
    the interest rate as well my guesses
  • 00:35:43
    they have an interest rate of under
  • 00:35:46
    4% Goldman Sachs suggests that real
  • 00:35:48
    estate prices are roughly flat year
  • 00:35:51
    over-year with uh inventory continuing
  • 00:35:54
    to moderate this is now Nationwide
  • 00:35:57
    rather than just Texas they see an
  • 00:35:59
    uptake in real estate activity coming as
  • 00:36:01
    perspective buyers move off of the
  • 00:36:03
    sidelines post the election personally
  • 00:36:05
    I've only seen this in the higher end
  • 00:36:07
    Market not so much in the lower-end
  • 00:36:08
    market because the lower end Market
  • 00:36:10
    still can't afford to buy a damn
  • 00:36:12
    home it's also cheaper to rent right now
  • 00:36:14
    and recover from hurricanes in the
  • 00:36:16
    Southeast existing for sale Supply was
  • 00:36:18
    23% below November of 2019 so still low
  • 00:36:22
    Supply leading prices to rise 4%
  • 00:36:25
    year-over-year uh which I I guess they
  • 00:36:28
    somewhat consider roughly flat but
  • 00:36:30
    anyway new single family home sales were
  • 00:36:32
    14% above the 2015 to 19 average up 2%
  • 00:36:36
    year-over year that's new construction
  • 00:36:38
    so you're getting a lot more new
  • 00:36:39
    construction uh rather than this
  • 00:36:41
    existing Supply which is below that's in
  • 00:36:44
    part due to interest rate lock in this
  • 00:36:46
    is in part due to accelerated new
  • 00:36:47
    construction thanks of course to the
  • 00:36:51
    pandemic then we get into quiet layoffs
  • 00:36:53
    apparently JP Morgan is expecting to
  • 00:36:55
    force everybody back to work 5 days a
  • 00:36:57
    week
  • 00:36:58
    people basically say this is a way of
  • 00:37:00
    quietly trying to fire people without
  • 00:37:02
    openly firing people it's a quiet way of
  • 00:37:05
    doing layoffs you also had uh I think it
  • 00:37:09
    was oh what was his name you had a big
  • 00:37:11
    set of layoffs this morning at um Ray
  • 00:37:15
    Delio's firm that's right Bridgewater
  • 00:37:17
    Bridgewater layoffs uh that was a little
  • 00:37:20
    bit of surprise uh that came as a bit of
  • 00:37:22
    a surprise to me Bridgewater Capital cut
  • 00:37:25
    7% of its staff in an effort to remain
  • 00:37:28
    Nimble I mean to me that's just a
  • 00:37:30
    colloquialism for saying yeah we want to
  • 00:37:32
    have money available when things change
  • 00:37:36
    in the marketplace you're cutting about
  • 00:37:38
    90 employees said the person this hasn't
  • 00:37:40
    been publicly announced yet the firm
  • 00:37:42
    whose headcount is now going back to
  • 00:37:44
    2023 levels will continue hiring
  • 00:37:47
    selectively blah blah blah they're
  • 00:37:49
    focused on their goals blahy blahy blahy
  • 00:37:51
    blahy let's be real the companies want
  • 00:37:53
    more money in their bottom line so in
  • 00:37:55
    the event that the market tanks they
  • 00:37:57
    have money to go shopping now here's an
  • 00:38:00
    interesting one there's a meme stock
  • 00:38:02
    ticker RR that's been rocketing over the
  • 00:38:04
    last 6 weeks it's basically 10x over the
  • 00:38:07
    last 6 weeks and don't feel bad that you
  • 00:38:09
    missed out on it frankly a lot of these
  • 00:38:11
    have so little liquidity you couldn't
  • 00:38:12
    really get a meaningful amount of buying
  • 00:38:14
    done in them anyway but what's really
  • 00:38:17
    interesting is that a stock like this
  • 00:38:18
    can 10x and then when you look at their
  • 00:38:20
    latest SEC filing they tell you hey
  • 00:38:23
    sorry we're going to be late on filing
  • 00:38:25
    our uh annual report uh part of the
  • 00:38:28
    reason is we expect a 52% decrease in
  • 00:38:31
    revenues and our margins are down
  • 00:38:35
    69% compared to last year but don't
  • 00:38:39
    worry it's because we're getting into
  • 00:38:40
    robots as a
  • 00:38:43
    service jeez man kills me Donald Trump
  • 00:38:47
    made an announcement today suggesting
  • 00:38:49
    that a Dubai based developer uh demac
  • 00:38:52
    properties will invest $20 billion in
  • 00:38:54
    the United States the individual from
  • 00:38:55
    the company actually came up and spoke
  • 00:38:57
    with Donald Trump uh just basically said
  • 00:39:00
    a few words they said that uh they're a
  • 00:39:02
    luxury property Builder they've
  • 00:39:03
    delivered 45,000 units they've got
  • 00:39:05
    another 45k coming they're in 10
  • 00:39:07
    countries for data centers and they're
  • 00:39:09
    going to build data centers in the US
  • 00:39:11
    they also say that they've been waiting
  • 00:39:12
    for 4 years to invest in the US because
  • 00:39:15
    they didn't want to invest during the
  • 00:39:16
    Biden
  • 00:39:17
    Administration big slam on the Biden
  • 00:39:19
    Administration but anyway Donald Trump
  • 00:39:21
    says if you invest a billion dollars or
  • 00:39:23
    more maybe less we'll push you through
  • 00:39:25
    the environmental process sometimes
  • 00:39:28
    people are held up 12 to 14 years we'll
  • 00:39:31
    make sure to push you through the
  • 00:39:33
    environmental
  • 00:39:35
    process I will also reverse Biden's ban
  • 00:39:38
    on offshore drilling immediately we're
  • 00:39:39
    going to drill baby drill all right you
  • 00:39:41
    get the idea uh Donald Trump then went
  • 00:39:43
    on to talk about some other priorities
  • 00:39:46
    like we'll end counting ballots at 10
  • 00:39:48
    p.m. on Election night some states do
  • 00:39:50
    take like 12 days to count like Arizona
  • 00:39:52
    California is another one that takes a
  • 00:39:53
    while to count he says we'll rename the
  • 00:39:55
    Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America
  • 00:39:58
    and there's talk about Donald Trump
  • 00:39:59
    trying to take control of the Panama
  • 00:40:00
    Canal or Greenland potentially using the
  • 00:40:03
    military in the event that quote he has
  • 00:40:06
    to or I guess the quote was he may have
  • 00:40:08
    to which was kind of interesting because
  • 00:40:10
    it's just not something that was on
  • 00:40:11
    anybody's radar and this is kind of
  • 00:40:13
    classic for Donald Trump is take things
  • 00:40:15
    that were on nobody's radar and they go
  • 00:40:19
    oh yeah we're going to take over
  • 00:40:21
    Greenland and the Panama Canal and we're
  • 00:40:24
    going to rename the Gulf of Mexico
  • 00:40:27
    hm Greenland by the way uh Is Well about
  • 00:40:31
    2third of its government budget is
  • 00:40:33
    funded by Denmark so Denmark and
  • 00:40:37
    Greenland say that Greenland is not for
  • 00:40:38
    sale the Kingman Kingdom of Denmark
  • 00:40:42
    wants Greenland but Donald Trump says if
  • 00:40:45
    Denmark doesn't agree with the Takeover
  • 00:40:48
    then he'll issue very very high tariffs
  • 00:40:51
    on
  • 00:40:52
    them okay I I still don't understand the
  • 00:40:55
    full scope of all of this so we're just
  • 00:40:57
    going to sort of table that for right
  • 00:40:59
    now because a lot of things are said
  • 00:41:02
    very often and usually they're just all
  • 00:41:05
    part of a big
  • 00:41:07
    negotiation Justin Trudeau also said
  • 00:41:09
    that becoming the 51st state of the
  • 00:41:11
    United States has a snowballs chance
  • 00:41:14
    what does he know though he's resigning
  • 00:41:16
    soon Jack Smith has also been preparing
  • 00:41:19
    to file a final report on Donald
  • 00:41:21
    Trump basically putting together
  • 00:41:24
    everything and all the evidence or
  • 00:41:25
    whatever that they have against Donald
  • 00:41:26
    Trump however Donald Trump is arguing
  • 00:41:28
    this isn't fair and that this is just an
  • 00:41:30
    improper new indictment of Donald Trump
  • 00:41:32
    some people reviewing the report say it
  • 00:41:34
    contains false accusations and so a
  • 00:41:36
    judge has actually today blocked the
  • 00:41:39
    release while an appeals court evaluates
  • 00:41:42
    what's going on anthropic plans to raise
  • 00:41:45
    $2 billion at a $60 billion valuation at
  • 00:41:48
    the same time as open AI announces
  • 00:41:50
    they're still losing money hand over
  • 00:41:53
    fist and then of course when we look at
  • 00:41:56
    the famous lines the lines the lines the
  • 00:41:59
    lines what do we see at the lines we see
  • 00:42:03
    that Tesla today lost the very important
  • 00:42:06
    414 line we were expecting to come for a
  • 00:42:09
    retest and we did retest that line over
  • 00:42:12
    here remember you can get my trade and
  • 00:42:15
    Trend alerts Trend alerts very important
  • 00:42:17
    so that way during times that I'm not
  • 00:42:18
    trading if I still see something very
  • 00:42:20
    desirable or something that I think is
  • 00:42:22
    desirable I'll still send you a trend
  • 00:42:23
    alert that I see you could get those in
  • 00:42:26
    the trumponomics course for any of the
  • 00:42:27
    courses over at M kevin.com but look at
  • 00:42:29
    that rejection perfectly on my line on
  • 00:42:31
    the one minute chart and if you zoom out
  • 00:42:33
    onto the one day chart this is a pretty
  • 00:42:36
    critical level uh in fact my next level
  • 00:42:39
    for Tesla doesn't hit until 607 and when
  • 00:42:42
    we lost that or failed that breakout we
  • 00:42:44
    did retest 414 but we've now lost 414
  • 00:42:48
    for the second time in a row not ideal
  • 00:42:51
    from a technical point of view for the
  • 00:42:53
    time being short-term bearish if you
  • 00:42:57
    look at Bitcoin you're also going to see
  • 00:42:59
    a pretty important line get rejected
  • 00:43:01
    very clearly here on the 1 hour and is
  • 00:43:03
    that 102 line important here and I don't
  • 00:43:08
    recommend uh speculating in near
  • 00:43:12
    term rocket ships unless we can actually
  • 00:43:16
    confirm that 102 level I think that 102
  • 00:43:20
    level is very very important uh let me
  • 00:43:22
    know what you think in the comments down
  • 00:43:24
    below okay so then we have I think there
  • 00:43:29
    is also Nvidia I just wanted to briefly
  • 00:43:32
    mention that Nvidia today after its CES
  • 00:43:35
    announcement did at Market open start
  • 00:43:37
    tanking not because of the announcement
  • 00:43:40
    in fact it was running more because of
  • 00:43:41
    the announcement the um 5,000 series
  • 00:43:44
    chips AI computers bringing AI home all
  • 00:43:48
    this really exciting I thought we were
  • 00:43:50
    going to try to test 164 uh we ended up
  • 00:43:53
    capping out at about 15374 and then
  • 00:43:55
    thanks to that ISM and data we ended up
  • 00:43:57
    selling off down to
  • 00:44:00
    140 now we need to hit the Daily Wealth
  • 00:44:05
    so as usual you could get this over at
  • 00:44:06
    mavin.com but yesterday I did send an
  • 00:44:09
    email called failure and I wrote fail
  • 00:44:12
    fast I said when it comes to business
  • 00:44:15
    everybody always says do what you're
  • 00:44:19
    passionate about let's refine that on
  • 00:44:23
    top of things you're passionate about
  • 00:44:25
    focus on the ones that make money with
  • 00:44:28
    the least effort this sounds obvious but
  • 00:44:30
    I've caught myself distracted by new
  • 00:44:32
    businesses many times sometimes they
  • 00:44:35
    make more money and they're worth
  • 00:44:37
    pursuing but often business ideas take
  • 00:44:40
    too much time lose too much money or
  • 00:44:42
    just don't gain traction or end up
  • 00:44:44
    losing traction after an initial boost
  • 00:44:47
    and this is where in my sort of Daily
  • 00:44:49
    Wealth Vision I always like to say fail
  • 00:44:52
    fast and this isn't necessarily failing
  • 00:44:55
    fast I call call this instead let the
  • 00:44:58
    market decide if the market doesn't care
  • 00:45:01
    about your product kill it move on if
  • 00:45:04
    it's a great product and it's a great
  • 00:45:06
    service it will make you money it might
  • 00:45:09
    take time to build it but you'll see the
  • 00:45:11
    trajectory it's kind of like when I
  • 00:45:13
    became a real estate agent I mean I
  • 00:45:15
    thought the service I was providing was
  • 00:45:16
    really good it took me 10 months to get
  • 00:45:18
    my first deal well close my first deal
  • 00:45:21
    but I had upward trajectory the entire
  • 00:45:24
    year I went from no clients to my first
  • 00:45:26
    three clients within 30 days to eight
  • 00:45:29
    clients by the end of the first year I
  • 00:45:31
    only made $10,000 my first year in real
  • 00:45:33
    estate but the second year I made just
  • 00:45:36
    over $50,000 the third year I made over
  • 00:45:40
    $140,000 and the year after that I broke
  • 00:45:43
    $300,000 the year after that broke
  • 00:45:47
    $500,000 obviously the trajectory of me
  • 00:45:50
    selling real estate myself and helping
  • 00:45:52
    people learn how to buy real estate and
  • 00:45:54
    invest in real estate was a good idea
  • 00:45:57
    that was a sustainable idea the market
  • 00:45:59
    was telling me yes Kevin people like the
  • 00:46:01
    no pressure agent who's providing more
  • 00:46:03
    value do more of this I was letting the
  • 00:46:05
    market decide when I offered a service
  • 00:46:08
    as a licensed contractor to my real
  • 00:46:11
    estate contact or to my to my real
  • 00:46:13
    estate clients I noticed the adoption
  • 00:46:15
    wasn't that great for what it was
  • 00:46:17
    costing me to run a Contracting staff
  • 00:46:20
    that was the market telling me you're
  • 00:46:22
    not getting enough demand for the
  • 00:46:23
    infrastructure you've built out so what
  • 00:46:25
    did I do I killed that business that
  • 00:46:27
    doesn't make me a failure that makes me
  • 00:46:29
    responsive to the market and the faster
  • 00:46:33
    you do this the better and this is why
  • 00:46:35
    in The Daily Wealth email uh I wrote do
  • 00:46:38
    not delay the market is exceptionally
  • 00:46:41
    good at telling you if you're on the
  • 00:46:42
    right path or not you could use this for
  • 00:46:45
    relationships like a boyfriend or
  • 00:46:47
    girlfriend a dead-end job a career an
  • 00:46:49
    education it doesn't matter listen to
  • 00:46:52
    the market the market
  • 00:46:54
    knows now with that I got to leave you
  • 00:46:57
    with the regular ending which this is
  • 00:47:01
    only the second meet Kevin report we've
  • 00:47:03
    done so we'll make it the regular ending
  • 00:47:05
    the dad joke of the day the dad joke of
  • 00:47:09
    the day goes as
  • 00:47:13
    follows I'm really worried about the
  • 00:47:19
    calendar it's days are numbered why not
  • 00:47:22
    advertise these things that you told us
  • 00:47:23
    here I feel like nobody else knows about
  • 00:47:25
    this we'll we'll try a little advert ing
  • 00:47:27
    in CR congratulations man you have done
  • 00:47:29
    so much people love you people look up
  • 00:47:31
    to you Kevin PA there financial analyst
  • 00:47:33
    and YouTuber meet Kevin always great to
  • 00:47:35
    get your take
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