Why the Market CRASHED Today | Meet Kevin Report [Jan 7].
概要
TLDRThe video discusses new economic data indicating stagflation, prompting institutions to dump stocks heavily to cover debts, leading to a decline in major indexes including the NASDAQ and stocks like Tesla. There is discussion on Mark Zuckerberg's latest decision to reduce censorship at Meta by adopting community notes, relocating operations to Texas, and removing fact-checkers. Meanwhile, Donald Trump makes bold comments about wanting to take control over Greenland and the Panama Canal, stirring geopolitical debates. Real estate troubles in Austin, Texas are highlighted, suggesting potential losses due to market conditions. The video also touches on the misuse of AI tools in criminal activities, as illustrated by a recent bomb plot in Las Vegas. Concerns over economic policies, the impact of tariff fears on business activities, and market trends are analyzed, indicating potential overstock scenarios and inflating prices for non-stagflationary reasons. Notable mentions also include company's attempts to remain profitable amidst these economic changes, as seen with Carvana renegotiating bond terms, and the technology landscape where AI and indexing appear to be driving force. Lastly, the video advises regular deletion of ChatGPT history to safeguard personal data from potential subpoenas.
収穫
- 🤑 Stagflation fears are causing institutions to dump stocks, impacting the NASDAQ.
- 📉 Major stock drops include Tesla and MicroStrategy due to economic concerns.
- 👨💻 Mark Zuckerberg plans to eliminate biased censorship at Meta.
- 🇺🇸 Donald Trump makes controversial geopolitical statements about Greenland and the Panama Canal.
- 🏠 Real estate in Austin is experiencing losses due to market and supply-demand issues.
- ⚖️ Deleting ChatGPT history can protect privacy and security.
- 🚗 Carvana focuses on debt management and efficiency for profitability.
- 📊 Funding spreads indicate economic warnings and potential market downturns.
- 🌍 Tariff fears lead to economic volatility and supply chain reactions.
- 📈 Inflation concerns may be exaggerated, impacting market perception.
タイムライン
- 00:00:00 - 00:05:00
The meeting begins with an analysis of recent economic data suggesting stagflation, causing significant stock selloffs by hedge funds and institutions, leading to a plunge in NASDAQ and certain tech stocks. There’s also a mention of real estate concerns in Austin, Texas, and environmental issues in California. The ISM and JOLTs data, which show an unexpected surge in job openings, are examined in detail, yet market reactions seem influenced mostly by stagflation fears rather than the positive hiring signals.
- 00:05:00 - 00:10:00
Stagflation fears are fueled by hotter-than-expected ISM service data, particularly the prices paid index, which indicates potential inflationary pressure. The presenter uses an aviation analogy to caution about potential economic stalling due to the market's reaction to these fears. The FED's potential interest rate hike adds to concerns, despite in-depth analysis showing that majority businesses report unchanged prices.
- 00:10:00 - 00:15:00
A discussion on market reactions to perceived stagflation and the fear of the FED's rates remaining high for too long continues. The presenter explores how the market might be interpreting this data incorrectly, using the analogy of extensive buying in Q4 in anticipation of tariffs leading to a false stagflationary signal. There’s skepticism regarding Germany's inflation data, emphasizing the market's often short-term viewpoint.
- 00:15:00 - 00:20:00
The video delves into the implications of stagflation concerns on institution debt behavior, highlighting a significant drop in funding spreads as a red flag. This could indicate changes in borrowing behaviors among institutions. There's also a critical look at FED policy shifts potentially being too aggressive, comparing current economic conditions to past recessions.
- 00:20:00 - 00:25:00
Exploration of potential selling and debt implications continues, using the funding spreads as a key indicator. There’s discussion on Zuckerberg’s stance against censorship and a move to Texas aimed at political balance. Trump’s international ambitions and potential impacts on domestic policy are also discussed, along with real estate topics involving Austin's market trends.
- 00:25:00 - 00:30:00
Analysis extends to contrasting community moderation approaches between platforms, favorably viewing Meta’s adoption of community notes akin to Twitter’s system. Also mentioned are potential implications of people using AI tools for illicit activities, stressing the importance of managing digital footprints by deleting old interactions from AI programs like ChatGPT to avoid legal troubles.
- 00:30:00 - 00:35:00
The potential public relations strategy of Meta moving operations to Texas is interpreted as an attempt to shift perceived political biases. Concerns about AI misuse highlight the risks of generative AI in planning attacks, as seen in a recent legal case. Additionally, advice is offered on dealing with digital privacy issues, recommending regular deletion of AI chat histories.
- 00:35:00 - 00:40:00
Discussion on carvana’s financial status continues alongside broader real estate market analysis, suggesting implications for long-term holdings amid fluctuating real estate values. The video advises considering the opportunity cost when deciding to sell property early, especially in volatile markets like Austin affected by boom-bust cycles.
- 00:40:00 - 00:47:38
Finally, the video covers corporate layoffs and economic indicators, discussing how economic signals can often be misleading. It ends with a humorous touch, comparing the cyclical nature of economic and market behavior to a dad joke about a calendar's expiring days, emphasizing the unpredictable and often overlooked smaller details of market dynamics.
マインドマップ
ビデオQ&A
Why are institutions dumping stocks and what led to the stock market drop?
The morning's economic data triggered stagflationary fears, leading to institutional dumping of stocks.
What is causing the significant warning sign in equity markets?
It involves concerns about stagflation and the high borrowing and funding costs for stocks contributing to market downturns.
Is the current fear of stagflation justified according to the video?
Market fears of stagflation are inflated, with issues like tariffs and mismatched supply and demand causing temporary spikes.
What changes is Mark Zuckerberg making at Meta?
He plans to adopt community notes, move operations to Texas, and reduce biased censorship by eliminating fact-checkers.
What is notable about the Las Vegas Trump Hotel bombing plot?
It involves using ChatGPT for planning, indicating the possible misuse of AI in criminal activities.
What impact are tariff anticipations having according to the ISM report?
It's about moving workers offshore, tariff fears impacting buying habits, and potential overstock risks.
How is Carvana trying to become more profitable?
They are negotiating with bondholders and working on efficiency improvements to regain financial stability.
Why is real estate in Austin, Texas suffering?
Due to easy building permits, rapid construction, and changed demand post-COVID, prices are falling in markets like Austin.
What are Trump's latest geopolitical statements?
Donald Trump mentioned Greenland and the Panama Canal as areas of interest, possibly using military actions if needed.
Why is deleting ChatGPT history recommended?
Deleting chat history regularly can protect privacy in case of future legal issues or subpoenas.
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- 00:00:00oh boy horrible data on the economy this
- 00:00:02morning suggesting stagflation we're
- 00:00:04going to dive deep to see if that's
- 00:00:06actually what's going on but in the
- 00:00:09meantime it is leading Futures funding
- 00:00:11spreads and hedge funds to indicate that
- 00:00:15institutions are dumping stocks and
- 00:00:18they're not just dumping stocks to sell
- 00:00:21they're dumping to cover all the debt
- 00:00:23they took on to buy stocks in the rally
- 00:00:26over the last 6 months we got to talk
- 00:00:29about this and explained why the NASDAQ
- 00:00:31dropped
- 00:00:321.78% today why micro strategy was down
- 00:00:3699.9% coin base down 8% paler down 7.8
- 00:00:40Tesla was down
- 00:00:424% Red Robin cormet Burgers down 6% a
- 00:00:46lot to talk about here Mark Zuck also
- 00:00:49wants to end censorship and move to
- 00:00:51Texas yeah a lot to unpackage on that
- 00:00:54one I'll give you the quick scoop on
- 00:00:55that and give you my opinion on this and
- 00:00:56Donald Trump apparently wants to take
- 00:00:58over Greenland and the Panama Canal and
- 00:01:01may use the military if
- 00:01:03necessary we'll talk about that don't
- 00:01:06worry we we will go deep on these items
- 00:01:09we've also got some folks talking about
- 00:01:12losing money on real estate investments
- 00:01:14in Austin Texas and debating whether
- 00:01:16they should sell the property or rent it
- 00:01:20out I'll give you my opinion on what's
- 00:01:22going on in this video California is
- 00:01:24also on fire again with wins potentially
- 00:01:28up to one 100 mph later today right now
- 00:01:33gusts around 50 to 70 mph knocking down
- 00:01:37power lines especially around the LA
- 00:01:39area causing the Pacific Palisades to
- 00:01:42Now Catch Fire oh boy there is a lot so
- 00:01:46let's get started on this meet Kevin
- 00:01:48report news that makes you
- 00:01:53money first let's start with macro data
- 00:01:56like I said wow this hit hard now I went
- 00:02:00deep on this with course members this
- 00:02:02morning as the data came out we were
- 00:02:05standing by with almost a thousand of
- 00:02:07y'all course members live together and
- 00:02:09many more thousands of you afterwards
- 00:02:10who watched it on replay already but the
- 00:02:13ism numbers and joltz numbers that came
- 00:02:15out this morning really shook markets
- 00:02:18things were green until this data came
- 00:02:21out oh boy so what happened well we had
- 00:02:24more job openings than expected which
- 00:02:26should be a good thing in fact we had
- 00:02:29sign significantly more expansion in
- 00:02:32professional and business services in
- 00:02:34November than we expected now keep in
- 00:02:36mind this jolts data references November
- 00:02:39so it's kind of post Trump election
- 00:02:42people think it's sort of the Trump bump
- 00:02:44and so it indicates White Collar hiring
- 00:02:47which is good because that's been an
- 00:02:48area that's been lagging for a while so
- 00:02:51it's unclear if this is going to keep
- 00:02:52going if these job openings are actually
- 00:02:55going to turn into real hiring but both
- 00:02:57on the seasonally adjusted and on season
- 00:03:00adjusted we saw a significant bump in
- 00:03:01professional and business services
- 00:03:03hiring which seems to be good right this
- 00:03:05this is a good thing we we see more
- 00:03:07potential hiring we did see the quits
- 00:03:10rate move down to 1.9% from 2.1% which
- 00:03:13usually you see that in rougher
- 00:03:15economies people don't want to quit
- 00:03:17their job because it's harder to get a
- 00:03:18new job talked a lot about that
- 00:03:19yesterday and the layoff rate did take
- 00:03:21up a smidge to 1.1% from 1.0 none of
- 00:03:24that really a big deal if anything this
- 00:03:27joltz report should have been nice it
- 00:03:29was kind kind of a good jolts report I
- 00:03:31mean really if you look at what Nick T
- 00:03:33wrote this morning there's really no
- 00:03:36major fear that should be coming out of
- 00:03:39these numbers in terms of the jolts
- 00:03:42report telling us one thing or another
- 00:03:45other than the layoff rate remains low
- 00:03:47the job quitting rate is pretty low
- 00:03:49which we usually only see that tank in a
- 00:03:51recession the hiring rate is pretty low
- 00:03:54as well we're back at 2010 2009 levels
- 00:03:57in the hiring rate which isn't great but
- 00:03:59you did see a take up in the opening
- 00:04:01rate so this should be optimistic where
- 00:04:04the market should be looking at this
- 00:04:05going oh okay you know maybe things are
- 00:04:07turning around maybe the job market is
- 00:04:09stabilizing just like the Federal
- 00:04:11Reserve wants well unfortunately the ism
- 00:04:15data for December which came out this
- 00:04:17morning gave us much better insight into
- 00:04:21what's actually going on and I'll tell
- 00:04:24you it's exactly why the market took a
- 00:04:26little tanky dud lot today and it ain't
- 00:04:29great
- 00:04:30so the ism Services data came out and
- 00:04:32led to almost an instantaneous selloff
- 00:04:35on stagflationary fears why it's simple
- 00:04:39the services index came in a little bit
- 00:04:41hotter than expected no big deal
- 00:04:43everything was a little warmer than
- 00:04:45expected frankly in November and
- 00:04:47December thanks again to the Trump bump
- 00:04:49but the Price's paid section came in at
- 00:04:5264.4 versus 57.5 expected in 582 prior
- 00:04:57in English the market hat hates the idea
- 00:05:00about the FED potentially keeping rates
- 00:05:03higher be for longer because of an
- 00:05:06inflationary impetus so this is really
- 00:05:09bad the employment and New Order numbers
- 00:05:11came out as expected but the market
- 00:05:13absolutely hates seeing that rates could
- 00:05:16go even higher and higher is exactly
- 00:05:20where they went the 10e is almost at 4.7
- 00:05:24which is wild the 2 years only sitting
- 00:05:27at 4.29 but that's also pretty decent ly
- 00:05:29high but when you spread those you get a
- 00:05:32spread of 40 basis points remember what
- 00:05:35happens between 50 to 90 basis points of
- 00:05:37a spread which we're Rising towards pain
- 00:05:40in markets usually in fact sometimes
- 00:05:43actually almost always after an
- 00:05:45inversion of the Y curve of recession
- 00:05:47we're at 40 now so we keep getting
- 00:05:49closer and closer and closer to that
- 00:05:51breaking point now why like what was in
- 00:05:54this data because what this data really
- 00:05:56feels like or what the market is
- 00:05:58reacting with is almost this feeling
- 00:06:00that you're in a and I apologize in
- 00:06:02advance for the constant Aviation
- 00:06:04references but I feel like we're we're
- 00:06:06in a plane and everybody's kind of
- 00:06:09looking at the plane like this where
- 00:06:11it's like okay it's nose up oh it must
- 00:06:15be climbing look at that beautiful plane
- 00:06:17up there look nose up it's climbing and
- 00:06:20then you get some of this hot data it's
- 00:06:21like oh look look it keeps tipping its
- 00:06:23nose up it's nose up oh look it's it's
- 00:06:25it's climbing this is wonderful you know
- 00:06:28everybody looking in from the outside
- 00:06:29including the Federal Reserve is like oh
- 00:06:31look the economy is doing great it's
- 00:06:33gaining altitude we're not coming in for
- 00:06:34a soft Landing we got no Landing baby
- 00:06:37but Pilots look at this or a lot of
- 00:06:39economists looking at the data and
- 00:06:41they're like you're setting up for a
- 00:06:44stall and stalls don't happen gently
- 00:06:47when a plane stalls the nose of that
- 00:06:50sucker
- 00:06:51tanks and things happen
- 00:06:54extremely rapidly in a stall it's not
- 00:06:57good I mean that's also how you cure
- 00:06:59stall you you know NOS down right we can
- 00:07:01talk all about that later we'll do that
- 00:07:04in an aviation video but the point is
- 00:07:07the stall brings you to a ground pretty
- 00:07:09dang rapidly and that's what people are
- 00:07:11afraid of right now that potentially
- 00:07:14everything looks like as we're losing
- 00:07:16that speed and losing momentum it looks
- 00:07:18like we're still chugging along people
- 00:07:19are like see everything's fine but
- 00:07:21really we're in such an unstable
- 00:07:23position that soon we might be
- 00:07:25feeling why oh because the Federal
- 00:07:28Reserve is telling us oh we got to be
- 00:07:30worried about inflation again so we're
- 00:07:32going to keep rates higher for longer do
- 00:07:34we though is that actually what this ISM
- 00:07:37data told us well not in my opinion
- 00:07:39because when I went deep into the ism
- 00:07:41data I found the following I found that
- 00:07:45on average over the last 4 months the
- 00:07:49number of businesses reporting the same
- 00:07:52prices over the last 4 months was 73.6
- 00:07:575% today in today's report we had
- 00:08:0173.4% in other words below that average
- 00:08:04but let's just call it the same no
- 00:08:07change in prices paid the vast majority
- 00:08:11of businesses almost three out of every
- 00:08:13four businesses said nothing's changing
- 00:08:16in prices okay well then why did this
- 00:08:18index on the right side go up so much
- 00:08:21well it's because the number of
- 00:08:22businesses that reported lower prices
- 00:08:26fell in December only 2.9
- 00:08:30and you had a little bit of an uptake
- 00:08:31like in September of the percentage
- 00:08:33higher and that led this index higher
- 00:08:36now this doesn't actually suggests that
- 00:08:38there's a rapid expansion of prices it
- 00:08:40suggests that in certain fringes prices
- 00:08:44are moving and we're getting volatility
- 00:08:46in this data so the market is
- 00:08:48potentially responding to stagflationary
- 00:08:51fears that aren't actually
- 00:08:54stagflationary I mean look at Germany
- 00:08:57Germany just came out with a hot CPI
- 00:09:00report an inflation report everybody's
- 00:09:01like oh my gosh I thought Germany was in
- 00:09:04recession this must be
- 00:09:06stagflationary well nobody actually
- 00:09:09Dives a little bit deeper did you know
- 00:09:11this I'm going to guess you didn't and
- 00:09:13it is okay but did you know that Germany
- 00:09:16doesn't actually report core
- 00:09:19CPI maybe you did maybe didn't doesn't
- 00:09:22matter the point is we're reacting to
- 00:09:25Germany's hot CPI and when we pull back
- 00:09:28the layer we go oh that's because of
- 00:09:31food and energy and why are Energy
- 00:09:33prices going up well natural gas is
- 00:09:35skyrocketing why because it's winter and
- 00:09:37there are reports of potential polar
- 00:09:39winds coming in again thing that happens
- 00:09:42every few years it leads natural gas
- 00:09:44prices whether through speculation or
- 00:09:46reality to Skyrocket that's just what's
- 00:09:49been happening so what a surprise but
- 00:09:52the point is the market doesn't really
- 00:09:54care in the short term the Market's just
- 00:09:57going to trade based off of what
- 00:09:59whatever the market thinks at that time
- 00:10:02and the move and and what's working at
- 00:10:04the time and the move that's working
- 00:10:06right now is yep everything
- 00:10:08stagflationary sell bonds and
- 00:10:11inflation's coming back so that is
- 00:10:14what's taking hold right now and once
- 00:10:16that trade gets going it accelerates
- 00:10:19there's a problem with that we're going
- 00:10:20to talk about that problem in just a
- 00:10:22moment and it has a lot to do with debt
- 00:10:25because there is a chart that is warning
- 00:10:27of really big change in the ways that
- 00:10:30institutions are responding to the
- 00:10:32amount of debt that they have
- 00:10:33outstanding this is a big red flag we
- 00:10:36got to talk about it along with what
- 00:10:37Donald Trump said today what's going on
- 00:10:39with
- 00:10:40Facebook and the real estate topic a lot
- 00:10:44but before we keep going on some of
- 00:10:46those other topics we really got to
- 00:10:47finish this ISM talk because yes there
- 00:10:50are stagflationary fears but I want you
- 00:10:52to look at some of the commentary that's
- 00:10:54coming out over why there might be some
- 00:10:57fears about prices going up let's look
- 00:10:59at what the ism report actually said
- 00:11:02that respondents are actually talking
- 00:11:04about when it comes to inflation prices
- 00:11:07or business activity and services quote
- 00:11:10preparations are underway to diversify
- 00:11:12Supply in anticipation for tariffs all
- 00:11:16right if in Q4 you buy a bunch of goods
- 00:11:19or you basically set yourself up for
- 00:11:21tariffs to affect your business you
- 00:11:23might Overstock in the fourth quarter
- 00:11:26this is bad because if you don't sell
- 00:11:28out all of that in the first quarter you
- 00:11:32end up with too much stuff too many
- 00:11:34goods and supplies or service time and
- 00:11:36then you have to cut your prices and you
- 00:11:38actually end up with deflation so it's
- 00:11:40weird but the market always seems to
- 00:11:42work in these really contrarian ways
- 00:11:44today everybody's like oh no oh no oh no
- 00:11:47stagflation mark my words if things keep
- 00:11:50going the way they are we'll be in q1 or
- 00:11:52Q2 and we'll be screaming about
- 00:11:54deflation because maybe the tariffs
- 00:11:57didn't conduct the or cause the
- 00:11:59inflation that we were expecting or
- 00:12:01because people just overstocked in the
- 00:12:02fourth quarter because of fears over
- 00:12:06tariffs which may not even come we
- 00:12:08talked about Trump and tariffs yesterday
- 00:12:10but I'll tell you this I know Trump
- 00:12:12looks at the stock market every single
- 00:12:14day if the stock market's red he ain't
- 00:12:17going to do tariffs because he'll
- 00:12:19threaten tariffs but he'll be too
- 00:12:20nervous about the market crashing and
- 00:12:23then that being a scar in his
- 00:12:26legacy so take a look at this this is
- 00:12:30Extreme here's a construction industry
- 00:12:33tariff threats from incoming admin from
- 00:12:37the incoming Administration have been
- 00:12:39making suppliers reluctant to hold
- 00:12:42pricing for more than a year as projects
- 00:12:44can take 2 years plus budgeting is
- 00:12:47getting difficult similar to
- 00:12:492021 and 2022 when supply chain
- 00:12:53disruptions caused chaos in pricing wait
- 00:12:55a minute so you're telling me the crisis
- 00:12:58we're seeing right now in stagflation is
- 00:13:01because of fear that maybe there will be
- 00:13:04tariffs and everybody's buying stuff
- 00:13:06like crazy now well if that's true then
- 00:13:10this prices paid level going up new
- 00:13:13orders level going up and basically you
- 00:13:15know numbers going up like ISM you know
- 00:13:17manufacturing or Services the headline
- 00:13:19numbers going up those are all fugazi
- 00:13:22built up for the fourth quarter and I
- 00:13:26don't know that's going to repeat in q1
- 00:13:28because people are prepared preparing
- 00:13:29for that uncertainty and apparently in
- 00:13:31an extreme way to where now all of a
- 00:13:33sudden there are quite literally it's
- 00:13:36listed in a different section of this
- 00:13:38ISM report but backlogs of containers
- 00:13:42that need to be unloaded because of so
- 00:13:44much buying now originally or I should
- 00:13:47say ordinarily we would look at that and
- 00:13:48say oh this is a sign of a really strong
- 00:13:50economy right really good economy but so
- 00:13:53far everything everybody is telling us
- 00:13:55is it's because of tariffs not because
- 00:13:57of massive demand if anything what we
- 00:14:00see is we're moving workers offshore to
- 00:14:03save on costs that's companies taking it
- 00:14:06in the margin because their pee's too
- 00:14:08small we are concerned about tariff
- 00:14:10activity but we're hoping for the best
- 00:14:13there seems to be a lot of uncertainty
- 00:14:15about tariffs and purchasing decisions a
- 00:14:18lot of weight and C customers are
- 00:14:21slowing
- 00:14:23down okay so a lot of anticipation of
- 00:14:26tariffs leading to potentially a bump of
- 00:14:28these num numbers and some skewing of
- 00:14:31numbers that on average are not
- 00:14:34stagflationary and forget the average
- 00:14:36for a moment when you actually read
- 00:14:38company earnings calls you should know
- 00:14:40that we're not in a reinflation era but
- 00:14:45that's not going to stop markets from
- 00:14:46Trading as if we are the problem is the
- 00:14:50more the markets trade as if they're
- 00:14:53stagflation the higher bond yields go
- 00:14:56all we're doing is driving up the nose
- 00:14:58of of that plane more and more and more
- 00:15:01and the more we do that the more we're
- 00:15:02pulling back on the stick the more
- 00:15:04violent the stall is going to be and
- 00:15:06those rates will come down plummeting
- 00:15:08rapidly
- 00:15:10unfortunately and likely with a
- 00:15:12recession so
- 00:15:14anyway what does all of this mean well
- 00:15:18in my opinion the pendulum is swinging
- 00:15:20to far to the stagflationary side
- 00:15:23because of reports like this now the
- 00:15:28bottom line here is the setup should be
- 00:15:31a cause for concern and when we look at
- 00:15:34something like the funding markets we
- 00:15:36could see what's going on with
- 00:15:39institutionalsales take a look at this
- 00:15:42this is called a funding spreads chart
- 00:15:46I'm going to try to explain this as
- 00:15:47simply as
- 00:15:48possible let's pretend for a moment that
- 00:15:51instead of saying funding spreads this
- 00:15:54said cost to borrow okay that's a little
- 00:15:57bit easier to understand
- 00:15:59when nobody wants to borrow debt borrow
- 00:16:03you know money to buy stocks what do you
- 00:16:05think happens to the cost to borrow well
- 00:16:08with plummets because it's like oh
- 00:16:10nobody's borrowing all right let's lower
- 00:16:12the cost until people borrow again what
- 00:16:14do you think happens when everybody
- 00:16:15wants to borrow debt money to go buy
- 00:16:18stocks well the cost to borrow goes up
- 00:16:20okay the red line is the cost to borrow
- 00:16:23line up up up up up up up up up up up up
- 00:16:26up notice how as the cost to borrow goes
- 00:16:29up because more people are taking on
- 00:16:31more debt institutions hedge funds
- 00:16:34retail you name it everybody's going in
- 00:16:36on margin because the stock market can't
- 00:16:38fall I literally see comments of people
- 00:16:40saying things
- 00:16:43like you know Kevin I don't think there
- 00:16:46could be a market correction
- 00:16:48because everybody has an app in their
- 00:16:50pocket today where they can buy stocks
- 00:16:52and they're just going to buy the debt
- 00:16:55so therefore there could never be a
- 00:16:56stock market correction again
- 00:17:02okay there's sure as hell of a sign
- 00:17:04enough for
- 00:17:07me
- 00:17:09anyway as you notice when the line goes
- 00:17:12up it implies more people are borrowing
- 00:17:14to go buy stocks and wow what a surprise
- 00:17:16the S&P 500 went up with that line well
- 00:17:19what's happened since December 18th well
- 00:17:22according to John Marshall of
- 00:17:24S&T who has published a quote
- 00:17:26significant warning the funding spread
- 00:17:29plummeting is a really big red flag the
- 00:17:33reason you have this really big red flag
- 00:17:36is because on December 18th Jerome
- 00:17:39Powell flip-flopped and it marked the
- 00:17:41peak the flip-flop in the funding
- 00:17:43spreads level on December 18th Drome
- 00:17:45Powell told us that they want to keep
- 00:17:47rates higher in essence because of
- 00:17:50impending tariffs two months before that
- 00:17:53he told us we're just going to wait to
- 00:17:55see what happens with tariffs and then
- 00:17:56we'll react all of a sudden now it's
- 00:17:59yeah uh we're going to try to Stave off
- 00:18:01the inflation ahead of time so we'll
- 00:18:03just keep rates higher for longer
- 00:18:04basically and pencil and fuel rate Cuts
- 00:18:06well that led the markets to go oh my
- 00:18:08gosh fed you all could be making a
- 00:18:11massive and terrible mistake keeping
- 00:18:13rates way too high for way too long and
- 00:18:16ultimately push the economy into that
- 00:18:18stall Point breaking point and
- 00:18:21potentially even into an unrecoverable
- 00:18:23stall because we have so little
- 00:18:26altitude that red line is a warning
- 00:18:30sign Mr Marshall I'm going to show you
- 00:18:33what he wrote I don't want you to think
- 00:18:34it's me it's Mr Marshall Marshall
- 00:18:36Marshall he wrote this yesterday mind
- 00:18:38you before the market started selling
- 00:18:40off
- 00:18:41today we view this chart as a
- 00:18:43significant warning sign for Equity
- 00:18:45investors the December move was not just
- 00:18:48year-end related the episode continues
- 00:18:50to look like a December 2021 move in
- 00:18:53positioning when worries about monetary
- 00:18:56policy triggered professional investors
- 00:18:57selling ahead of the 10-month decline in
- 00:19:00the S&P 500 in other words he's
- 00:19:03forecasting a 10-month decline just like
- 00:19:05in 2022 he also says while Equity
- 00:19:08valuations have been historically high
- 00:19:10for many months this is the first time
- 00:19:11we're seeing significant selling in both
- 00:19:13of these positioning measures in years
- 00:19:16hedge funds selling equities in each of
- 00:19:18the past five sessions and at the
- 00:19:20fastest Pace in the past seven months 7
- 00:19:23plus months uh and then of course that
- 00:19:24funding
- 00:19:25chart this is a red flag this is not
- 00:19:29good and so it's something to pay
- 00:19:30attention to now is it saying you know
- 00:19:32Run for the hills sell everything no of
- 00:19:35course not I I don't ever like to come
- 00:19:37across as an extremist in fact I always
- 00:19:39like to come across as suggesting hey
- 00:19:41I'm going to keep giving you my advice
- 00:19:42every single day and one place you can
- 00:19:44sign up for for free for more of this
- 00:19:46sort of stuff make sure you get my Alpha
- 00:19:48report every morning uh the market is
- 00:19:50open just click here if you're us or
- 00:19:52canidate or here if you're International
- 00:19:53you can also get my Daily Wealth email
- 00:19:55if you want you can click on that it's
- 00:19:56over at meetkevin.com you can check uh
- 00:19:58check out the website I actually built
- 00:20:01the website myself so don't make fun of
- 00:20:03me but I kind
- 00:20:05of I like doing stuff myself sometimes
- 00:20:10but anyway so uh let me know if there
- 00:20:12are any bugs I will fix them but anyway
- 00:20:16uh so sorry for all the aviation
- 00:20:18analogies let's keep moving on with
- 00:20:21what's really important oh history what
- 00:20:24does history tell us usually when the
- 00:20:26Federal Reserve starts cutting rates
- 00:20:27rates fall but rates have now risen 110
- 00:20:31basis points as the Federal Reserve cut
- 00:20:34interest rates 100 basis points there
- 00:20:37were two times this has happened in
- 00:20:38history before one was 1998 which did
- 00:20:42not come after an inverted yield curve
- 00:20:45and and it came while employment was
- 00:20:47expanding the 27 weeks unemployed number
- 00:20:49was actually declining like things were
- 00:20:50actually good in the economy in '
- 00:20:5398 the other time absent that good data
- 00:20:57was 2001 leaving us similar to the 2001
- 00:21:01level in history which isn't great
- 00:21:04because obviously that led to about an
- 00:21:0518mon sell-off in the stock market and a
- 00:21:08lot of people pissed about investing in
- 00:21:10stocks all of a sudden all the people
- 00:21:12with apps in their pockets are pulling
- 00:21:14the apps out anymore Howard marks in his
- 00:21:17latest credit memo has five cautionary
- 00:21:19warnings valuations an enthusiasm bubble
- 00:21:23around AI mag 7 concentration passive
- 00:21:26index buying and suggest that a sharp
- 00:21:29and sudden selloff is possible just like
- 00:21:31thec bubble which to me feels exactly
- 00:21:34like the jolts measure or not the jolts
- 00:21:36the stall measure I've been talking
- 00:21:38about anyway enough about the market
- 00:21:40let's talk a little bit more micro Mark
- 00:21:43Zuckerberg had a lot to say today about
- 00:21:46censorship in fact they're now going to
- 00:21:49copy Community notes this is very
- 00:21:51interesting he literally shouted out X I
- 00:21:55mean obviously everybody was going to
- 00:21:56make the comparison anyway so we got
- 00:21:57ahead of that by saying hey we're to do
- 00:21:58community notes kind of like how X does
- 00:22:00it we're going to get rid of fact
- 00:22:02Checkers and we're going to simplify our
- 00:22:04policies because complex systems censor
- 00:22:07things mistakenly too much and fact
- 00:22:09Checkers are too biased according to
- 00:22:13reports from employees inside of meta a
- 00:22:16lot of people say that inside of meta
- 00:22:18are suggesting that meta is trying to
- 00:22:21suck up to trumpan and that meta is
- 00:22:23sending a message that facts no longer
- 00:22:25matter and that there's going to be an
- 00:22:27influx of racist and transphobic
- 00:22:29content but Mark suck says hey we're
- 00:22:32just going to bring politics back we're
- 00:22:34going to get rid of the filters we'll
- 00:22:36solely focus on illegal and high
- 00:22:39severity issues like serious threats
- 00:22:41that are are illegal even on X like
- 00:22:44threatening to kill someone for example
- 00:22:46we'll remove that but on the rest we'll
- 00:22:48just Community note stuff and I have to
- 00:22:52say my opinion this is actually a great
- 00:22:55thing uh I am as somebody who has the
- 00:22:58ability to write Community notes I've
- 00:23:00written very few Community notes but I
- 00:23:03like to read them what I really enjoy
- 00:23:05about having that feature though is I
- 00:23:07get to see uh proposed Community notes
- 00:23:11for example here Customs and Border
- 00:23:12Protection announced They seized a
- 00:23:14rocket launcher and two rocket propelled
- 00:23:15grenades hidden in a car headed to
- 00:23:18Mexico again these Rockets were heading
- 00:23:20to Mexico from the US okay so if I click
- 00:23:23on the proposed Community note the
- 00:23:25Rockets featured in the photo lack the
- 00:23:26booster charge and are inert
- 00:23:29nonfunctional the RPG shown as
- 00:23:31non-functional and is a replica training
- 00:23:33aid I mean that's kind of a useful note
- 00:23:36and then they sort of give you a link
- 00:23:38over here in terms of like I guess where
- 00:23:40you could buy inert RPG replicas kind of
- 00:23:44interesting I like that extra detail I I
- 00:23:46wish some more of these proposed
- 00:23:48Community notes were visible and what I
- 00:23:50really like is when you go through this
- 00:23:52sometimes you could just see a uh like a
- 00:23:55debate going on in the community notes
- 00:23:57like here I'll just look at Elon Musk
- 00:23:59for example if we go to Elon he he gets
- 00:24:01community noted like every single post
- 00:24:03okay there first one see there's a
- 00:24:05debate over here oh like the time
- 00:24:07starmer called Donald Trump a racist and
- 00:24:10then you get responses over here uh
- 00:24:12adding some details about who's who uh
- 00:24:15starmer has supported senior members of
- 00:24:17the labor party and people leaving links
- 00:24:18and citations to things you can see
- 00:24:20these go on for I mean there are like
- 00:24:22six or seven of these and then you
- 00:24:24always get these people who just write
- 00:24:27nnn which is no note needed no note
- 00:24:30needed stop abusing Community notes
- 00:24:32honestly it's kind of like a messy Forum
- 00:24:35but usually the top ones add the most
- 00:24:38context and people can kind of vote up
- 00:24:41or down on whether these are useful or
- 00:24:44not and it's kind of a cool system
- 00:24:46because it mostly gives people an equal
- 00:24:48voice especially if you're a community
- 00:24:50notor uh which I mean theoretically
- 00:24:52anybody should be able to just join the
- 00:24:54community notes I put a little app in
- 00:24:56and in like 3 weeks I was approved
- 00:24:58didn't do anything special and I haven't
- 00:24:59done anything with it but I think it's
- 00:25:01kind of cool so anyway uh I'm a big fan
- 00:25:04of that also Mark Zuck slammed
- 00:25:06California by saying that they're going
- 00:25:09to move their safety and content
- 00:25:11moderators to Texas instead of
- 00:25:12California where there will be quote
- 00:25:14less concern uh over the bias of our
- 00:25:17teams I think this is mostly a PR move
- 00:25:20it's basically saying hey everybody
- 00:25:22thinks that because we're company based
- 00:25:24in California we're a woke company maybe
- 00:25:26that's true to some extent uh so by
- 00:25:28moving our safety and content to Texas
- 00:25:31that'll balance us
- 00:25:32out I don't know if that'll actually
- 00:25:34make any difference at all but big fan
- 00:25:37of using well
- 00:25:40frankly Community notes now this is
- 00:25:43interesting the Associated Press just
- 00:25:45reported that the new orle sorry not the
- 00:25:48New Orleans the uh cyber truck bomber
- 00:25:51outside of the Las Vegas Trump Hotel
- 00:25:54apparently used generative AI including
- 00:25:57chat GPT to help plan the attack now
- 00:26:00that's an interesting
- 00:26:02one uh they don't really give details on
- 00:26:05this now not at all that's just sort of
- 00:26:07like the intro paragraph and then they
- 00:26:09just give a summary of what happened but
- 00:26:11apparently searches on chat GPT indicate
- 00:26:13he was looking for information on
- 00:26:15explosives ammunition where fireworks
- 00:26:18were legal where he could buy them uh
- 00:26:21and and some other aspects again no
- 00:26:23exact quotes given just rough ideas that
- 00:26:26he was using chat GPT to help play is
- 00:26:28attack this is actually one of the
- 00:26:30reasons that I've mentioned uh to a lot
- 00:26:33of people before especially those in
- 00:26:36finance or banking that it's actually
- 00:26:38not a bad idea that if you use services
- 00:26:43like GPT that you go into them every so
- 00:26:46often and just delete all your chats
- 00:26:50because I do believe that in the future
- 00:26:53these chats are going to be subpoena and
- 00:26:56so if you ever get into a lawsuit and
- 00:26:58you know you put all of your weaknesses
- 00:27:01or whatever into chat GPT what if
- 00:27:03somebody can one I don't even know if I
- 00:27:05can delete it it's not giving me any
- 00:27:07kind of confirmation that things are
- 00:27:08deleted oh no oh
- 00:27:11no who knows maybe it's all stored
- 00:27:13somewhere anyway right and this is why
- 00:27:15people say turn off the memory in in the
- 00:27:17settings for these sort of things but
- 00:27:18just keep that in mind that your data is
- 00:27:22out there when you use these apps and
- 00:27:25that's sort of a good reminder to go in
- 00:27:26there and uh uh you know delete some of
- 00:27:30the history that you have I like doing
- 00:27:32it uh and uh I it actually worked it
- 00:27:35deleted all my history I think it's a
- 00:27:36good idea for everybody to do that every
- 00:27:39so often maybe even weekly okay maybe
- 00:27:42not so important for everybody but we'll
- 00:27:43see anyway so that's a little bit on
- 00:27:46meta I mean really is it a big deal yeah
- 00:27:49it kind of is I mean it's a win for Elon
- 00:27:51Musk it's a win for Donald Trump it's
- 00:27:53basically a shout out to musk and Trump
- 00:27:56it'll probably help move the stock up
- 00:27:58it'll make the stock maybe to some seem
- 00:28:00sort of less woke and maybe you could
- 00:28:01even put the meta stock in a trumpan
- 00:28:04ETFs or whatever right so it's probably
- 00:28:06a good move all around I think Zuck did
- 00:28:08a great thing here and I'm a big fan of
- 00:28:10the community noting idea because then
- 00:28:12the public can sort of vote up the best
- 00:28:14notes I like that and I think Community
- 00:28:16noting is a lot better than what you've
- 00:28:18seen over at Wikipedia which is
- 00:28:19basically just controlled by people who
- 00:28:22mostly lean left at least in my
- 00:28:24experience okay A little bit of drama
- 00:28:27circulating what's going going on with
- 00:28:28carvana this is mostly because of the
- 00:28:31Hindenburg uh hit piece suggesting that
- 00:28:34some of their growth numbers have been
- 00:28:36entirely misleading or potentially even
- 00:28:38fraudulent the CEO went on to CNBC for
- 00:28:42an interview and when he was asked about
- 00:28:44how they're becoming more profitable he
- 00:28:46basically said they're working on
- 00:28:48efficiencies at the company uh and
- 00:28:51basically said hey actually I shouldn't
- 00:28:53even say basically he said I don't want
- 00:28:55to bore you with the details of how
- 00:28:56we're becoming more profitable and so
- 00:28:58that led a lot of people to sort of
- 00:28:59scratch their heads going I don't I
- 00:29:00don't I don't know is is like is it that
- 00:29:03hard to find out like to explain is it
- 00:29:06that complicated so what are you doing
- 00:29:08that's making you more profitable then
- 00:29:10does Hindenburg have a
- 00:29:13point all I know is carvana was up 5%
- 00:29:16today so I don't know how much of a
- 00:29:18difference is making it's down 1% year
- 00:29:20to date obviously it's down from its 256
- 00:29:22Peak but it's way up from where it was
- 00:29:24at like $4 a share uh at the end of 202
- 00:29:28to when the company was about to go
- 00:29:30bankrupt had it not been for
- 00:29:32renegotiating with its Bond holders they
- 00:29:35would have probably gone bankrupt and
- 00:29:37obviously in renegotiating they were
- 00:29:39able to reestablish themselves so good
- 00:29:41for them and we could do a deep dive
- 00:29:43video on carvana leave me a comment in
- 00:29:45the uh notes down below if you want but
- 00:29:48just a super quick look at what's going
- 00:29:50on at carvana you could definitely see
- 00:29:52growth in Topline Revenue which people
- 00:29:55generally like looking for this is a 30
- 00:29:58% growth rate in retail vehicle sales
- 00:30:02and when you look at net income you can
- 00:30:04see net income well is a lot less but
- 00:30:09part of that has to do with uh some of
- 00:30:12their debt extinguishment and the gain
- 00:30:15that they realized because of their debt
- 00:30:17extinguishment uh so they were actually
- 00:30:19if you remove this losing money from
- 00:30:22their operations at the end of 2023 and
- 00:30:24they're actually making about 69 cents
- 00:30:27in a month period which isn't bad
- 00:30:30because it means they're making some
- 00:30:32money again which is great as far as
- 00:30:35their valuation well this is something
- 00:30:38that a lot of people have different
- 00:30:39opinions on look at it this way if you
- 00:30:42take carvana as a company trading for
- 00:30:44$198 a share with
- 00:30:47$1.37 of earnings per share expected for
- 00:30:49Q4 you know ending December 31st which
- 00:30:52is already over they're trading for
- 00:30:53about 144 times earnings In fairness
- 00:30:57though they are expected to grow
- 00:30:59earnings in excess of 70% per year for
- 00:31:03the next 4 years so that only puts them
- 00:31:07at about a tweg with that really high PE
- 00:31:10ratio if they could keep that growth
- 00:31:12going so who knows maybe a deep dive for
- 00:31:16carvana is in store and leave me a
- 00:31:18comment down below if that's what you're
- 00:31:19looking for as far as China it's
- 00:31:21interesting to look at this chart to see
- 00:31:24what's going on with the percentage of
- 00:31:26vehicles in production
- 00:31:28in China uh especially as a percentage
- 00:31:31of Next Generation Vehicles look at this
- 00:31:34in 2023 China produced over
- 00:31:3733% of all Next Generation which would
- 00:31:40be hybrid or battery electric vehicles
- 00:31:42in the world and this number is
- 00:31:44skyrocketing I would guess that if it
- 00:31:47weren't for restrictions on importing
- 00:31:49Chinese vehicles into America we'
- 00:31:51probably all be driving Chinese vehicles
- 00:31:54then a real estate question came up so
- 00:31:57on on Reddit somebody posted the
- 00:31:59following we need to sell our house that
- 00:32:01we bought less than 2 years ago that's
- 00:32:03always a bad idea the selling costs
- 00:32:05alone to sell your house are insane I
- 00:32:08don't recommend this we needed to sell
- 00:32:11our house that we bought less than 2
- 00:32:12years ago we are looking at a loss of
- 00:32:14around
- 00:32:15$22,000 with where the market is right
- 00:32:17now in Austin so honestly their loss
- 00:32:19will probably be greater than this once
- 00:32:21they start getting hit with requests for
- 00:32:23repairs vacancy moving cost Furniture
- 00:32:26cost repairs some needs a roof
- 00:32:28replacement honestly they'll probably
- 00:32:29lose somewhere around 50 Grand how
- 00:32:32devastating is this we were first-time
- 00:32:34home buyers and admittedly didn't quite
- 00:32:35know what we were doing have any of you
- 00:32:37taking a taken a loss like this we could
- 00:32:40rent it out however the rent wouldn't
- 00:32:41cover the mortgage we would be at a loss
- 00:32:43of about $3600 over the year if we
- 00:32:45rented it out and then sold it next year
- 00:32:47we would probably be at less of a loss
- 00:32:49however it could take a while to sell
- 00:32:51and I'm not sure I want to gamble having
- 00:32:52two mortgages at once any thoughts or
- 00:32:54advice all right look here's the the
- 00:32:58answer Rachel
- 00:33:00silver first I don't know what your
- 00:33:02personal income situation is but if yall
- 00:33:05can afford the $3,600 a month in my
- 00:33:08opinion consider this $3600 a month an
- 00:33:11investment into the property because
- 00:33:13frankly you're probably paying down more
- 00:33:15than this in principle every single year
- 00:33:18if you're paying down $500 a month in
- 00:33:20principal on your loan you're probably
- 00:33:23paying down $6,000 off of your loan
- 00:33:26every single year and you're only
- 00:33:28putting $3,600 into it so you're
- 00:33:31actually up you're just rearranging
- 00:33:33where your money is in the house piggy
- 00:33:36bank or in your savings account piggy
- 00:33:37bank or I don't know in your sock drawer
- 00:33:39or wherever you keep your extra cash the
- 00:33:41downside of selling it now is frankly
- 00:33:44your loss is going to be a lot higher
- 00:33:45than this again I expect it's going to
- 00:33:47be $50,000 but let's just say your loss
- 00:33:49is
- 00:33:50$222,000 well divide $22,000 which some
- 00:33:53of this you've already lost because of
- 00:33:55equity uh potentially but it could also
- 00:33:58just represent the selling cost 2 and 1
- 00:34:00half% to One agent you know maybe 1% if
- 00:34:02you hire a discount agent yourself but
- 00:34:04then you still got 1% for escort title
- 00:34:06you still got to pay uh for repairs and
- 00:34:08vacancy and transition cost you're going
- 00:34:10to be spending somewhere around 6 to 8%
- 00:34:12to sell your house that's probably where
- 00:34:14most of this loss is so if you kept it
- 00:34:16you're probably at zero which is good
- 00:34:19but if you sell it let's just say it's
- 00:34:2122k well divide that by 3600 it would
- 00:34:24take you 6 years of paying 36 $600 to
- 00:34:29get to a $2,200 $222,000 loss so just
- 00:34:32keep it for 6 years you think it'll
- 00:34:34probably go up again in 6 years I don't
- 00:34:35know maybe not it's Austin after all
- 00:34:38what happened in Austin Well Austin is
- 00:34:40an easy place to build one of the
- 00:34:42reasons why my real estate company house
- 00:34:45Haack did not buy in Texas specifically
- 00:34:48in Austin is because Austin was a covid
- 00:34:51Boom Town Co boom toown where everybody
- 00:34:53moved to because of the freedom away
- 00:34:55from mask mandates and you know America
- 00:34:58work from home
- 00:35:00whatever it's also very easy to build so
- 00:35:03when the population shot up during Co a
- 00:35:06lot of people got into speculating on
- 00:35:08building in Texas and now you have an
- 00:35:10excess of Supply because now since it
- 00:35:13takes two to three years to get that
- 00:35:14construction to come online you
- 00:35:16basically had a bunch of people come in
- 00:35:18prices shot up now you don't have a
- 00:35:20bunch of people coming in but Supply
- 00:35:22real estate supply has shot up because
- 00:35:25all that building is coming online so
- 00:35:27now this mismatch is leading prices to
- 00:35:31fall could it keep going of course in my
- 00:35:35opinion keep it forget about it you got
- 00:35:37a built-in 30-year fix trate mortgage
- 00:35:39and if you got it two years ago honestly
- 00:35:41you probably got a pretty good rate on
- 00:35:42the interest rate as well my guesses
- 00:35:43they have an interest rate of under
- 00:35:464% Goldman Sachs suggests that real
- 00:35:48estate prices are roughly flat year
- 00:35:51over-year with uh inventory continuing
- 00:35:54to moderate this is now Nationwide
- 00:35:57rather than just Texas they see an
- 00:35:59uptake in real estate activity coming as
- 00:36:01perspective buyers move off of the
- 00:36:03sidelines post the election personally
- 00:36:05I've only seen this in the higher end
- 00:36:07Market not so much in the lower-end
- 00:36:08market because the lower end Market
- 00:36:10still can't afford to buy a damn
- 00:36:12home it's also cheaper to rent right now
- 00:36:14and recover from hurricanes in the
- 00:36:16Southeast existing for sale Supply was
- 00:36:1823% below November of 2019 so still low
- 00:36:22Supply leading prices to rise 4%
- 00:36:25year-over-year uh which I I guess they
- 00:36:28somewhat consider roughly flat but
- 00:36:30anyway new single family home sales were
- 00:36:3214% above the 2015 to 19 average up 2%
- 00:36:36year-over year that's new construction
- 00:36:38so you're getting a lot more new
- 00:36:39construction uh rather than this
- 00:36:41existing Supply which is below that's in
- 00:36:44part due to interest rate lock in this
- 00:36:46is in part due to accelerated new
- 00:36:47construction thanks of course to the
- 00:36:51pandemic then we get into quiet layoffs
- 00:36:53apparently JP Morgan is expecting to
- 00:36:55force everybody back to work 5 days a
- 00:36:57week
- 00:36:58people basically say this is a way of
- 00:37:00quietly trying to fire people without
- 00:37:02openly firing people it's a quiet way of
- 00:37:05doing layoffs you also had uh I think it
- 00:37:09was oh what was his name you had a big
- 00:37:11set of layoffs this morning at um Ray
- 00:37:15Delio's firm that's right Bridgewater
- 00:37:17Bridgewater layoffs uh that was a little
- 00:37:20bit of surprise uh that came as a bit of
- 00:37:22a surprise to me Bridgewater Capital cut
- 00:37:257% of its staff in an effort to remain
- 00:37:28Nimble I mean to me that's just a
- 00:37:30colloquialism for saying yeah we want to
- 00:37:32have money available when things change
- 00:37:36in the marketplace you're cutting about
- 00:37:3890 employees said the person this hasn't
- 00:37:40been publicly announced yet the firm
- 00:37:42whose headcount is now going back to
- 00:37:442023 levels will continue hiring
- 00:37:47selectively blah blah blah they're
- 00:37:49focused on their goals blahy blahy blahy
- 00:37:51blahy let's be real the companies want
- 00:37:53more money in their bottom line so in
- 00:37:55the event that the market tanks they
- 00:37:57have money to go shopping now here's an
- 00:38:00interesting one there's a meme stock
- 00:38:02ticker RR that's been rocketing over the
- 00:38:04last 6 weeks it's basically 10x over the
- 00:38:07last 6 weeks and don't feel bad that you
- 00:38:09missed out on it frankly a lot of these
- 00:38:11have so little liquidity you couldn't
- 00:38:12really get a meaningful amount of buying
- 00:38:14done in them anyway but what's really
- 00:38:17interesting is that a stock like this
- 00:38:18can 10x and then when you look at their
- 00:38:20latest SEC filing they tell you hey
- 00:38:23sorry we're going to be late on filing
- 00:38:25our uh annual report uh part of the
- 00:38:28reason is we expect a 52% decrease in
- 00:38:31revenues and our margins are down
- 00:38:3569% compared to last year but don't
- 00:38:39worry it's because we're getting into
- 00:38:40robots as a
- 00:38:43service jeez man kills me Donald Trump
- 00:38:47made an announcement today suggesting
- 00:38:49that a Dubai based developer uh demac
- 00:38:52properties will invest $20 billion in
- 00:38:54the United States the individual from
- 00:38:55the company actually came up and spoke
- 00:38:57with Donald Trump uh just basically said
- 00:39:00a few words they said that uh they're a
- 00:39:02luxury property Builder they've
- 00:39:03delivered 45,000 units they've got
- 00:39:05another 45k coming they're in 10
- 00:39:07countries for data centers and they're
- 00:39:09going to build data centers in the US
- 00:39:11they also say that they've been waiting
- 00:39:12for 4 years to invest in the US because
- 00:39:15they didn't want to invest during the
- 00:39:16Biden
- 00:39:17Administration big slam on the Biden
- 00:39:19Administration but anyway Donald Trump
- 00:39:21says if you invest a billion dollars or
- 00:39:23more maybe less we'll push you through
- 00:39:25the environmental process sometimes
- 00:39:28people are held up 12 to 14 years we'll
- 00:39:31make sure to push you through the
- 00:39:33environmental
- 00:39:35process I will also reverse Biden's ban
- 00:39:38on offshore drilling immediately we're
- 00:39:39going to drill baby drill all right you
- 00:39:41get the idea uh Donald Trump then went
- 00:39:43on to talk about some other priorities
- 00:39:46like we'll end counting ballots at 10
- 00:39:48p.m. on Election night some states do
- 00:39:50take like 12 days to count like Arizona
- 00:39:52California is another one that takes a
- 00:39:53while to count he says we'll rename the
- 00:39:55Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America
- 00:39:58and there's talk about Donald Trump
- 00:39:59trying to take control of the Panama
- 00:40:00Canal or Greenland potentially using the
- 00:40:03military in the event that quote he has
- 00:40:06to or I guess the quote was he may have
- 00:40:08to which was kind of interesting because
- 00:40:10it's just not something that was on
- 00:40:11anybody's radar and this is kind of
- 00:40:13classic for Donald Trump is take things
- 00:40:15that were on nobody's radar and they go
- 00:40:19oh yeah we're going to take over
- 00:40:21Greenland and the Panama Canal and we're
- 00:40:24going to rename the Gulf of Mexico
- 00:40:27hm Greenland by the way uh Is Well about
- 00:40:312third of its government budget is
- 00:40:33funded by Denmark so Denmark and
- 00:40:37Greenland say that Greenland is not for
- 00:40:38sale the Kingman Kingdom of Denmark
- 00:40:42wants Greenland but Donald Trump says if
- 00:40:45Denmark doesn't agree with the Takeover
- 00:40:48then he'll issue very very high tariffs
- 00:40:51on
- 00:40:52them okay I I still don't understand the
- 00:40:55full scope of all of this so we're just
- 00:40:57going to sort of table that for right
- 00:40:59now because a lot of things are said
- 00:41:02very often and usually they're just all
- 00:41:05part of a big
- 00:41:07negotiation Justin Trudeau also said
- 00:41:09that becoming the 51st state of the
- 00:41:11United States has a snowballs chance
- 00:41:14what does he know though he's resigning
- 00:41:16soon Jack Smith has also been preparing
- 00:41:19to file a final report on Donald
- 00:41:21Trump basically putting together
- 00:41:24everything and all the evidence or
- 00:41:25whatever that they have against Donald
- 00:41:26Trump however Donald Trump is arguing
- 00:41:28this isn't fair and that this is just an
- 00:41:30improper new indictment of Donald Trump
- 00:41:32some people reviewing the report say it
- 00:41:34contains false accusations and so a
- 00:41:36judge has actually today blocked the
- 00:41:39release while an appeals court evaluates
- 00:41:42what's going on anthropic plans to raise
- 00:41:45$2 billion at a $60 billion valuation at
- 00:41:48the same time as open AI announces
- 00:41:50they're still losing money hand over
- 00:41:53fist and then of course when we look at
- 00:41:56the famous lines the lines the lines the
- 00:41:59lines what do we see at the lines we see
- 00:42:03that Tesla today lost the very important
- 00:42:06414 line we were expecting to come for a
- 00:42:09retest and we did retest that line over
- 00:42:12here remember you can get my trade and
- 00:42:15Trend alerts Trend alerts very important
- 00:42:17so that way during times that I'm not
- 00:42:18trading if I still see something very
- 00:42:20desirable or something that I think is
- 00:42:22desirable I'll still send you a trend
- 00:42:23alert that I see you could get those in
- 00:42:26the trumponomics course for any of the
- 00:42:27courses over at M kevin.com but look at
- 00:42:29that rejection perfectly on my line on
- 00:42:31the one minute chart and if you zoom out
- 00:42:33onto the one day chart this is a pretty
- 00:42:36critical level uh in fact my next level
- 00:42:39for Tesla doesn't hit until 607 and when
- 00:42:42we lost that or failed that breakout we
- 00:42:44did retest 414 but we've now lost 414
- 00:42:48for the second time in a row not ideal
- 00:42:51from a technical point of view for the
- 00:42:53time being short-term bearish if you
- 00:42:57look at Bitcoin you're also going to see
- 00:42:59a pretty important line get rejected
- 00:43:01very clearly here on the 1 hour and is
- 00:43:03that 102 line important here and I don't
- 00:43:08recommend uh speculating in near
- 00:43:12term rocket ships unless we can actually
- 00:43:16confirm that 102 level I think that 102
- 00:43:20level is very very important uh let me
- 00:43:22know what you think in the comments down
- 00:43:24below okay so then we have I think there
- 00:43:29is also Nvidia I just wanted to briefly
- 00:43:32mention that Nvidia today after its CES
- 00:43:35announcement did at Market open start
- 00:43:37tanking not because of the announcement
- 00:43:40in fact it was running more because of
- 00:43:41the announcement the um 5,000 series
- 00:43:44chips AI computers bringing AI home all
- 00:43:48this really exciting I thought we were
- 00:43:50going to try to test 164 uh we ended up
- 00:43:53capping out at about 15374 and then
- 00:43:55thanks to that ISM and data we ended up
- 00:43:57selling off down to
- 00:44:00140 now we need to hit the Daily Wealth
- 00:44:05so as usual you could get this over at
- 00:44:06mavin.com but yesterday I did send an
- 00:44:09email called failure and I wrote fail
- 00:44:12fast I said when it comes to business
- 00:44:15everybody always says do what you're
- 00:44:19passionate about let's refine that on
- 00:44:23top of things you're passionate about
- 00:44:25focus on the ones that make money with
- 00:44:28the least effort this sounds obvious but
- 00:44:30I've caught myself distracted by new
- 00:44:32businesses many times sometimes they
- 00:44:35make more money and they're worth
- 00:44:37pursuing but often business ideas take
- 00:44:40too much time lose too much money or
- 00:44:42just don't gain traction or end up
- 00:44:44losing traction after an initial boost
- 00:44:47and this is where in my sort of Daily
- 00:44:49Wealth Vision I always like to say fail
- 00:44:52fast and this isn't necessarily failing
- 00:44:55fast I call call this instead let the
- 00:44:58market decide if the market doesn't care
- 00:45:01about your product kill it move on if
- 00:45:04it's a great product and it's a great
- 00:45:06service it will make you money it might
- 00:45:09take time to build it but you'll see the
- 00:45:11trajectory it's kind of like when I
- 00:45:13became a real estate agent I mean I
- 00:45:15thought the service I was providing was
- 00:45:16really good it took me 10 months to get
- 00:45:18my first deal well close my first deal
- 00:45:21but I had upward trajectory the entire
- 00:45:24year I went from no clients to my first
- 00:45:26three clients within 30 days to eight
- 00:45:29clients by the end of the first year I
- 00:45:31only made $10,000 my first year in real
- 00:45:33estate but the second year I made just
- 00:45:36over $50,000 the third year I made over
- 00:45:40$140,000 and the year after that I broke
- 00:45:43$300,000 the year after that broke
- 00:45:47$500,000 obviously the trajectory of me
- 00:45:50selling real estate myself and helping
- 00:45:52people learn how to buy real estate and
- 00:45:54invest in real estate was a good idea
- 00:45:57that was a sustainable idea the market
- 00:45:59was telling me yes Kevin people like the
- 00:46:01no pressure agent who's providing more
- 00:46:03value do more of this I was letting the
- 00:46:05market decide when I offered a service
- 00:46:08as a licensed contractor to my real
- 00:46:11estate contact or to my to my real
- 00:46:13estate clients I noticed the adoption
- 00:46:15wasn't that great for what it was
- 00:46:17costing me to run a Contracting staff
- 00:46:20that was the market telling me you're
- 00:46:22not getting enough demand for the
- 00:46:23infrastructure you've built out so what
- 00:46:25did I do I killed that business that
- 00:46:27doesn't make me a failure that makes me
- 00:46:29responsive to the market and the faster
- 00:46:33you do this the better and this is why
- 00:46:35in The Daily Wealth email uh I wrote do
- 00:46:38not delay the market is exceptionally
- 00:46:41good at telling you if you're on the
- 00:46:42right path or not you could use this for
- 00:46:45relationships like a boyfriend or
- 00:46:47girlfriend a dead-end job a career an
- 00:46:49education it doesn't matter listen to
- 00:46:52the market the market
- 00:46:54knows now with that I got to leave you
- 00:46:57with the regular ending which this is
- 00:47:01only the second meet Kevin report we've
- 00:47:03done so we'll make it the regular ending
- 00:47:05the dad joke of the day the dad joke of
- 00:47:09the day goes as
- 00:47:13follows I'm really worried about the
- 00:47:19calendar it's days are numbered why not
- 00:47:22advertise these things that you told us
- 00:47:23here I feel like nobody else knows about
- 00:47:25this we'll we'll try a little advert ing
- 00:47:27in CR congratulations man you have done
- 00:47:29so much people love you people look up
- 00:47:31to you Kevin PA there financial analyst
- 00:47:33and YouTuber meet Kevin always great to
- 00:47:35get your take
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