FEU Public Intellectual Lecture Series | Prof. Rommel Banlaoi and Prof. Herman Kraft
概要
TLDRThe lecture series at the Far Eastern University, featuring Dr. Rommel Banlawi and Professor Hermann Kraft, delves into the concept of human security, examining its scope beyond traditional state security to include individual safety from various threats like poverty, environmental issues, and political instability. The discussion highlights the evolution of the concept since the 1994 UN Human Development Report and its application in the Philippines, notably under the current administration. The experts discuss the multifaceted challenges faced by the country, such as poverty, the drug war, and ongoing conflicts in Mindanao, emphasizing the importance of a comprehensive approach to addressing human security. They also explore the impact of President Duterte's policies, both domestically and in foreign relations, particularly his strategic pivot towards China, which involves balancing economic gains and national sovereignty concerns. The lecture concludes by stressing the need for nuanced public engagement and informed decision-making to tackle these complex issues effectively.
収穫
- 🎓 The lecture focuses on redefining human security beyond state-centric views.
- 🌍 Human security addresses various threats including poverty and environmental concerns.
- 🇵🇭 The Philippines faces significant human security challenges like poverty and conflict.
- 🤝 Effective human security requires cooperation at local and international levels.
- 📊 Indicators such as the Human Security Index measure progress in this area.
- 💼 Government strategies include both military and non-military solutions to security threats.
- 🔄 Transition from traditional to human-centric security requires policy adjustments.
- 🏛️ Political stability and peace are crucial for development and human security.
- 🤔 Public engagement and informed discussion are essential for addressing these issues.
- 💡 Human security policies should enhance individual well-being and societal resilience.
タイムライン
- 00:00:00 - 00:05:00
The session is introduced as part of the Public Intellectual Lecture Series by Far Eastern University, focusing on human security from both national and international perspectives. The hosts introduce Dr. Ramel Banlawi and Professor Hermann Kraft, noting the need for a working definition of human security, considering both micro and macro levels of society.
- 00:05:00 - 00:10:00
Dr. Hermann Kraft explores the origin of the human security concept introduced by the 1994 UN Human Development Report, emphasizing the shift from state-centric national security to a focus on individuals' security. He notes this change was in response to state-induced insecurities and underscores the broader meaning of security, including economic and environmental components, beyond mere physical safety.
- 00:10:00 - 00:15:00
Prof. Kraft further explains how human security requires governments to build capacities that go beyond military and political institutions. There's an emphasis on providing a good quality of life for citizens, which includes addressing economic, environmental, and political security. He also mentions the Philippines' shift in security policy paralleling international human security concepts.
- 00:15:00 - 00:20:00
Dr. Ramel Banlawi discusses the comprehensive nature of human security, highlighting that threats come not only from external states but also from within, like poverty and governance issues. He distinguishes between traditional state-centric security and non-traditional human-centric security, pointing out that the latter covers issues like terrorism and organized crime.
- 00:20:00 - 00:25:00
The conversation shifts to specific issues affecting Filipino human security. Poverty is highlighted as a primary concern influencing economic and food security. Dr. Banlawi talks about measuring security through indices, focusing on fulfilling basic human needs like livelihood and education as indicators of security. Safety and quality of life are emphasized as essential elements.
- 00:25:00 - 00:30:00
The dialogue addresses the role of state responsibility, not only in economic but also in political security. Emphasis is placed on creating a secure living environment, with access to education and political rights, needed for good governance. The state's capacity to meet these needs is crucial for human security, transcending traditional national security paradigms.
- 00:30:00 - 00:35:00
Dr. Banlawi outlines government measures to address security issues like poverty, terrorism, and insurgency, highlighting peace talks with groups like the Moro National Liberation Front. He mentions ongoing armed conflicts as challenges, with the government's comprehensive approach involving military action and economic development plans to assist affected regions.
- 00:35:00 - 00:40:00
The topic dives deeper into regional conflicts in the Philippines, especially in Mindanao, where multiple groups cause ongoing instability. Dr. Banlawi explains that while peace agreements exist, challenges remain with new rebel and terrorist recruitments. Efforts to develop the region economically are discussed, emphasizing the interplay of peace and security in enabling development.
- 00:40:00 - 00:45:00
They discuss the critical link between peace and development, positing that lack of peace increases individuals' insecurity and hampers national progress. Emphasizing interconnectivity, Prof. Kraft explains how regional instability in Mindanao, a key food source, influences national economic conditions, advocating for the significance of peace in fostering development across the nation.
- 00:45:00 - 00:50:00
Discussion of Marawi exemplifies the complex interaction of military and peaceful responses to conflict. Despite military liberation, reconstruction efforts are delayed, causing civilian frustration and new recruits for armed groups. Issues such as land ownership and government promises contribute to ongoing tensions, demonstrating challenges in implementing effective post-conflict recovery.
- 00:50:00 - 00:55:00
The continuation of martial law in Mindanao raises questions about its effectiveness and the opinions of local communities. While some residents see martial law as a stabilizer, others feel oppressed, showing a divide in perceptions. The impact on local governance is tangible, altering traditional power dynamics and leading to discussions on long-term stability versus temporary measures.
- 00:55:00 - 01:00:00
Attention shifts to discussing the concentration of power in the Duterte administration, reflecting a populous dynamic prioritizing immediate crisis management. However, the implications for long-term political stability and the strengthening of democratic institutions are questioned. Short-term solutions are contrasted with the potential erosion of procedural governance, highlighting the populist shift.
- 01:00:00 - 01:05:00
Examining Duterte's authoritarian tendencies and the risks of centralizing power, the dialogue covers potential trade-offs, including weakened institutions and governance systems. It suggests that while such approaches might address immediate issues, they risk creating long-term political and institutional challenges. The key concern is balancing urgency with maintaining democratic processes.
- 01:05:00 - 01:10:08
The session concludes by examining the Duterte administration's foreign policy, which leans towards personal diplomacy, especially with China. The administration's shifting loyalties between major powers like the US and China are noted for strategic gains. However, the departure from multilateral norms and potential sovereignty trade-offs raise questions about long-term international relationships and policies.
マインドマップ
よくある質問
What is human security?
Human security is a concept emphasizing the protection of individuals rather than just the state, ensuring freedom from fear and want and covering issues like economic safety, environmental threats, and quality of life.
Why is human security important?
Human security is important as it focuses on protecting individuals and communities from various threats, contributing to their overall quality of life and ensuring sustainable peace.
What are some threats to human security?
Threats to human security include poverty, food insecurity, environmental degradation, crime, terrorism, and even government oppression.
How is human security different from traditional security?
Human security focuses on the safety and quality of life of individuals, whereas traditional security is state-centric, often focusing on military and political stability.
What are current human security challenges in the Philippines?
Current challenges include poverty, economic disparity, the drug war, political instability, and conflicts in areas like Mindanao.
How does poverty impact human security in the Philippines?
Poverty exacerbates issues such as hunger, lack of education, and poor health, making communities more vulnerable to threats like the drug trade and armed conflicts.
What is the government's approach to conflict in Mindanao?
The government employs both military and non-military strategies, including peace talks, development programs, and efforts to establish political stability through agreements like the Bangsamoro Organic Law.
How do international relations affect the Philippines' human security?
The Philippines' diplomatic strategies, especially with countries like China and the US, influence economic conditions, territorial disputes, and security policies.
What are the implications of President Duterte's foreign policy?
President Duterte's foreign policy has shifted towards China, affecting international norms and agreements, while still trying to maintain relationships with traditional allies like the US.
Why does peace matter for development?
Peace is crucial for development, as conflicts disrupt economic activities, displace communities, and create environments where insecurity thrives.
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- 00:00:01[Music]
- 00:00:16good day and welcome to another session
- 00:00:18of the public intellectual lecture
- 00:00:20series of far eastern university
- 00:00:22i am leo from the department of
- 00:00:23interdisciplinary studies
- 00:00:25and today's topic is human security from
- 00:00:28the national and international
- 00:00:29perspective
- 00:00:30the speakers for today's sessions are dr
- 00:00:33ramel banlawi
- 00:00:34chairman of the board of the philippine
- 00:00:36institute for peace and
- 00:00:37for peace violence and terrorism
- 00:00:39research and professor hermann kraft
- 00:00:42of the department of political science
- 00:00:44of the university of the philippines
- 00:00:46hermann romell thank you very much for
- 00:00:48accommodating us for today
- 00:00:50thank you for having us it's a pleasure
- 00:00:52thank you so perhaps we can begin with
- 00:00:54something very basic
- 00:00:56um what exactly is human security so
- 00:00:59perhaps you can have a working
- 00:01:00definition
- 00:01:01of human security from the national and
- 00:01:04international or global perspective
- 00:01:06and perhaps you um what if you can
- 00:01:10expand on why this is important both on
- 00:01:12the micro and macro level of filipino
- 00:01:14society perhaps we can start with you
- 00:01:16uh well um human security came up as a
- 00:01:19concept actually uh that
- 00:01:22the 1994 u.n um human development
- 00:01:26report came up with it was a time when
- 00:01:28there were a lot of
- 00:01:31shall we say internal issues that were
- 00:01:33actually taking place
- 00:01:34uh around that time you're talking about
- 00:01:36the massacres in rwanda
- 00:01:38the massacres in srebrenica for instance
- 00:01:41in
- 00:01:42what was going on in yugoslavia um and
- 00:01:44so the main
- 00:01:45question there was if we continue
- 00:01:46looking at things uh
- 00:01:48if we continue looking at security from
- 00:01:51a national security perspective meaning
- 00:01:53to say that the object of security
- 00:01:54continues to be the state
- 00:01:55now then the question be what happens
- 00:01:57when you're talking about
- 00:01:58the state being the one that's
- 00:02:00responsible for creating insecurity for
- 00:02:02its people
- 00:02:04um and so the the u.n development report
- 00:02:06actually came up with the concept of
- 00:02:08human security where it talks about the
- 00:02:10idea that security should be seen in
- 00:02:11terms of
- 00:02:12freedom from fear and freedom from one
- 00:02:14okay in fact i think a third
- 00:02:16concept was brought in later on about
- 00:02:18the freedom of future generations too
- 00:02:21the kind of quality of life that we are
- 00:02:23enjoying right now um
- 00:02:25but the point here is that it goes
- 00:02:27beyond the idea of security as
- 00:02:30being simply about uh physical security
- 00:02:33right the survival of the human being
- 00:02:35first you're also talking about quality
- 00:02:36of life here because um
- 00:02:38i think what what the uh uh how
- 00:02:42human security was operationalized in
- 00:02:44that document it included i think seven
- 00:02:46concepts and that included things like
- 00:02:48economic security aside from physical
- 00:02:50security environmental security
- 00:02:52so all of these things were actually
- 00:02:53being brought in which
- 00:02:55now comes to a to an interesting point
- 00:02:58because
- 00:02:59it raises questions about what kinds of
- 00:03:02capacities then
- 00:03:04uh do governments have to have in order
- 00:03:06to be able to address the question of
- 00:03:08human security in other words
- 00:03:09before if you talked about national
- 00:03:12security it was primarily military
- 00:03:14political
- 00:03:14right so the focus of security was on
- 00:03:16the capacity of
- 00:03:19institutions like the military or the
- 00:03:20police now you're talking about things
- 00:03:22like foreign capacity of
- 00:03:24the entire government to actually
- 00:03:26provide the kind of quality of life that
- 00:03:28would make people feel secure
- 00:03:30in the kinds of uh everyday conditions
- 00:03:32that they have to actually deal with
- 00:03:34uh so in that in that context that's
- 00:03:36where the norm
- 00:03:37the international normation came um the
- 00:03:39interesting thing about the philippines
- 00:03:41is that
- 00:03:41um since the
- 00:03:44aquino administration the philippine
- 00:03:47government has been coming out with a
- 00:03:48national security policy
- 00:03:51and to a large extent the basic concepts
- 00:03:54that you actually have there
- 00:03:55approximates it's not exactly the same
- 00:03:57but it approximates the
- 00:03:58international definition of what human
- 00:04:00security is supposed to be all about
- 00:04:02right so in that sense it rebounds to
- 00:04:05the security of the human person
- 00:04:07as opposed to the idea of the security
- 00:04:09of the state per se
- 00:04:11right thank you um yeah uh
- 00:04:15that's right uh human security is a
- 00:04:16product of a debate
- 00:04:18challenging the traditional concept of
- 00:04:20security which is
- 00:04:21state-centric uh during the cold war
- 00:04:24when you talk about security it is
- 00:04:25defined as national security meaning
- 00:04:27the security of the state against
- 00:04:30external threat emanating from other
- 00:04:31states
- 00:04:32but after the end of the cold war
- 00:04:34security the referendum of security
- 00:04:38now focuses on the security of the
- 00:04:41people
- 00:04:41it becomes a people-centric or
- 00:04:44human-centric
- 00:04:45security so when you talk about threats
- 00:04:47to people security or human security
- 00:04:50what are these threats so threats are
- 00:04:51not only
- 00:04:52emanating from other states or external
- 00:04:54threats but happening within the states
- 00:04:56and what are these poverty
- 00:04:58so when you talk about poverty you talk
- 00:05:00about
- 00:05:01food security or economic security then
- 00:05:03you talk about destruction of the
- 00:05:05environment so we have environmental
- 00:05:06security
- 00:05:07but at the same time the breaking down
- 00:05:11of political institutions so you talk
- 00:05:13about
- 00:05:14political security and in the third
- 00:05:16world
- 00:05:17many threats are in fact happening
- 00:05:19inside and even the state was a threat
- 00:05:21to human security
- 00:05:22so it forgot the political regime so
- 00:05:25human security talks about the security
- 00:05:27of human beings even against
- 00:05:29their own government oppressive
- 00:05:30government so that's the nature of
- 00:05:32political security
- 00:05:34but as a result of that security becomes
- 00:05:37comprehensive and human security
- 00:05:39reflects the comprehensive scope
- 00:05:41of security right now so the main
- 00:05:43difference is that we have the
- 00:05:44traditional security
- 00:05:46which is state-centric and the
- 00:05:48non-traditional security
- 00:05:50uh which is human-centric and this
- 00:05:52non-traditional security
- 00:05:53defines the overall concept of human
- 00:05:56security and what are these
- 00:05:57non-traditional security issues then you
- 00:05:59talk about
- 00:05:59threats from poverty environment
- 00:06:02transnational organized crime
- 00:06:03terrorism even from your own government
- 00:06:05even from the police
- 00:06:06can be viewed as a threat to your own
- 00:06:08security so
- 00:06:10human security embraces
- 00:06:13a people-oriented human-centered concept
- 00:06:16of security
- 00:06:17as against traditional security which is
- 00:06:19military-oriented
- 00:06:21and state-focused thank you very much uh
- 00:06:24for
- 00:06:24both of you for because this is a very
- 00:06:26interesting uh
- 00:06:28perspective because right now what
- 00:06:30they're saying is human security
- 00:06:32is not about the preservation of the
- 00:06:35state but
- 00:06:36increasing the quality of life of the
- 00:06:38people of a particular community or
- 00:06:40nation if i'm not mistaken
- 00:06:42so given that perhaps you can provide um
- 00:06:46as a brief overview of human of the
- 00:06:48conditions of human security in the
- 00:06:50country again from
- 00:06:51perhaps the note uh from the national
- 00:06:53and international perspective
- 00:06:55and perhaps present some issues which
- 00:06:58you think
- 00:06:59are challenging or affecting our
- 00:07:01appreciation
- 00:07:02of human security in the country as
- 00:07:04citizens as well as our quality of life
- 00:07:07perhaps you can start this time with
- 00:07:08ramen when you talk about human security
- 00:07:11threats to the filipinos
- 00:07:12of course the number one will be the
- 00:07:14issue of their their
- 00:07:16economic status poverty so we're raising
- 00:07:19issues of food security and economic
- 00:07:21security
- 00:07:22so if you want to address human security
- 00:07:24concerns then our
- 00:07:26benchmark for that is the human security
- 00:07:28index are we fulfilling the needs of our
- 00:07:31own people
- 00:07:32based on human security index and what
- 00:07:34are this ability to have
- 00:07:35a decent livelihood decent shelter
- 00:07:38is an education and even enough food on
- 00:07:41their plate
- 00:07:42okay so those are things that we we
- 00:07:44measure and if you
- 00:07:46have all these things then you have some
- 00:07:48some sort of securities if you have
- 00:07:50these things
- 00:07:51but if you're lacking of these things if
- 00:07:54you lack these things
- 00:07:55then you feel insecure so that's the
- 00:07:58that's the measure and the
- 00:08:00the common measure next the human
- 00:08:01security at the human development index
- 00:08:04and now we are adopting what we call the
- 00:08:06human security uh
- 00:08:07index so it's being measured with a
- 00:08:10comprehensive
- 00:08:14issues that will address what we call
- 00:08:17the needs of the human being human
- 00:08:19security needs
- 00:08:20so good air good environment
- 00:08:24good food good shelter good education
- 00:08:28those things that fulfill the needs of
- 00:08:30human being
- 00:08:31thank you yeah um
- 00:08:35the emphasis of course on the human
- 00:08:37person right human communities
- 00:08:39but at the same time that does not
- 00:08:41absolve the state of its
- 00:08:42responsibilities
- 00:08:43because you're still talking about the
- 00:08:45idea of who's going to be responsible
- 00:08:47for
- 00:08:48providing all of this right so if you
- 00:08:50talk about economic security for
- 00:08:52instance which actually includes the
- 00:08:54idea of
- 00:08:55what ramel was actually talking about in
- 00:08:57terms of addressing poverty
- 00:08:59that's not something that individuals
- 00:09:00can do on their own so which means the
- 00:09:02state's still actually involved in that
- 00:09:04particular
- 00:09:05context you talk about political
- 00:09:06security that includes things like human
- 00:09:08rights for instance
- 00:09:10um in which case uh it becomes
- 00:09:13important to actually talk about
- 00:09:16state capacity right uh not as the
- 00:09:20object of
- 00:09:21security per se but the state's capacity
- 00:09:24to actually provide
- 00:09:26uh the the human person with what would
- 00:09:29be considered
- 00:09:30the um uh the capacities to be able to
- 00:09:34deal with
- 00:09:35uh everyday conditions right and so in
- 00:09:38that sense
- 00:09:39one important aspect of human security
- 00:09:41it might be implicit it's not
- 00:09:43an explicit thing but it really talks
- 00:09:45about or it implies the importance of
- 00:09:47state capacity
- 00:09:48to be able to provide all of these
- 00:09:50things right to be able to respond
- 00:09:51to the needs of the people uh in
- 00:09:53whichever capacity you're actually
- 00:09:54looking at this so
- 00:09:56um it involves capacity at local
- 00:09:59you know regional national levels you
- 00:10:01know um and then of course
- 00:10:03uh to a certain extent it also talks
- 00:10:04about being part of an international
- 00:10:06community
- 00:10:07and being able to actually address uh
- 00:10:10international norms that we
- 00:10:11we adhere to for instance thank you
- 00:10:14which
- 00:10:15leads me to my next question because
- 00:10:16you're actually emphasizing
- 00:10:18economics poverty and how it influ or
- 00:10:21how it has a tremendous impact on the
- 00:10:23quality of life of ordinary filipinos
- 00:10:25but as we can see um even if there are
- 00:10:29the there seems to be a worsening
- 00:10:31condition poverty seems to be worsening
- 00:10:33on a yearly basis
- 00:10:36despite high economic growth as
- 00:10:38reflected
- 00:10:39in government data it seems that
- 00:10:43people seem to not be enjoying you know
- 00:10:46the fruits of the economic growth
- 00:10:48now that is a i think a discussion we
- 00:10:50can discuss
- 00:10:51on a different uh topic or a different
- 00:10:54day but i was thinking
- 00:10:55since most of the issues of human human
- 00:10:58security
- 00:11:00in most of the issues of human security
- 00:11:02involve poverty
- 00:11:04how does poverty impact for example
- 00:11:07very important very critical issues um
- 00:11:11faced by ordinary like the drug war for
- 00:11:13example
- 00:11:14um you have the drug war uh where in
- 00:11:17most of the alleged victims or most of
- 00:11:20the casualties
- 00:11:21are coming from impoverished communities
- 00:11:23you know and then
- 00:11:25how does that contribute to you is there
- 00:11:28you mentioned something about capacity
- 00:11:30how does the government
- 00:11:31programs or how do government programs
- 00:11:34address
- 00:11:36the economic conditions of those who are
- 00:11:39casualties or who is being targeted by
- 00:11:41the drug
- 00:11:42war and in terms of capacity is it
- 00:11:44working
- 00:11:45perhaps uh herman can start well if you
- 00:11:48think about it
- 00:11:49um the question the responsibility
- 00:11:52as far as economic issues are actually
- 00:11:54concerned um
- 00:11:56we talk of our society as fundamentally
- 00:12:00adhering to a neoliberal economic agenda
- 00:12:04so the idea of opening up our markets um
- 00:12:07inviting foreign investments no i mean
- 00:12:10of course the consequences
- 00:12:11this might have in terms of uh the
- 00:12:13capability of
- 00:12:14uh local filipino capitalists to come to
- 00:12:17to
- 00:12:18compete with um with foreign capital
- 00:12:20that's coming in
- 00:12:21um and of course this brings in
- 00:12:24questions of well how do this
- 00:12:26uh affect the everyday lives of people
- 00:12:29which basically means you're talking
- 00:12:30about
- 00:12:30quality of jobs that are actually
- 00:12:32available um
- 00:12:34and i think this is where the issue
- 00:12:35actually comes up in other words if
- 00:12:37you're talking about uh state capacity
- 00:12:39you're not just talking about the
- 00:12:40capacity of the state to provide
- 00:12:42you know to provide uh jobs for instance
- 00:12:45right that's that's not what we're
- 00:12:46actually talking about but you're
- 00:12:48talking about the capacity of the state
- 00:12:49to actually provide the environment
- 00:12:52within which filipinos will actually be
- 00:12:56able to
- 00:12:58engage in everyday economic activities
- 00:13:01like for instance
- 00:13:03one of the things that's that's
- 00:13:05interesting about
- 00:13:06about um the philippine economy is the
- 00:13:10extent to which
- 00:13:11it's been kept afloat by the remittances
- 00:13:13of
- 00:13:14filipino uh overseas workers for
- 00:13:16instance now the question is
- 00:13:18why are they going overseas right and
- 00:13:21this is where the idea of
- 00:13:23whether or not there are jobs that can
- 00:13:25actually uh
- 00:13:26provide them with the kind of quality of
- 00:13:29life
- 00:13:30kind of lifestyles that they feel
- 00:13:34uh they they they aspire to um
- 00:13:37and so in in that context uh it becomes
- 00:13:40a question of
- 00:13:41what is it that the state should
- 00:13:42actually be providing good education for
- 00:13:45instance right for them to be able to
- 00:13:46compete to be
- 00:13:47to be able to actually uh have a
- 00:13:51the the capacity to contribute to a
- 00:13:53growing economy
- 00:13:54and and and that's not not just an
- 00:13:57industrializing economy you know but but
- 00:13:58an economy that that's going beyond
- 00:14:01what we talk about as uh as an indus
- 00:14:04industrializing one right we talk about
- 00:14:07uh
- 00:14:07the idea of a service economy um and so
- 00:14:10it
- 00:14:11brings up questions of what is it that
- 00:14:12the government should actually be
- 00:14:14focusing on
- 00:14:15if we're talking about empowering our
- 00:14:18people
- 00:14:18right so you can talk about education
- 00:14:21you can talk about
- 00:14:22jobs for instance you can talk about
- 00:14:23things about like like the environment
- 00:14:26right providing people with the kind of
- 00:14:28uh uh
- 00:14:29somehow mentioned clean air for instance
- 00:14:32right because that goes back to health
- 00:14:33security for instance right
- 00:14:35so all of these things are actually
- 00:14:37interconnected so to speak
- 00:14:38right uh and and a significant part of
- 00:14:41that
- 00:14:42goes back to the capacity of the state
- 00:14:44to provide
- 00:14:45the foundations within which people are
- 00:14:48going to be able to
- 00:14:49live uh the kind of quality of life that
- 00:14:52they aspire to
- 00:14:54definitely so it's obvious that the
- 00:14:56direction um
- 00:14:58that human security should go towards is
- 00:15:01providing social services which are
- 00:15:03sustainable
- 00:15:04and can be enjoyed by the majority in
- 00:15:07order to so that
- 00:15:08poverty will not emerge or we can
- 00:15:11address poverty
- 00:15:12but obviously um if there's anything we
- 00:15:15can see in terms of
- 00:15:16even historical conditions of the
- 00:15:17philippines the lack of access
- 00:15:20to government to social services
- 00:15:23access to opportunity it inevitably
- 00:15:26leads to conflict of course we're in an
- 00:15:27urban area
- 00:15:29we don't necessarily see it of course in
- 00:15:31terms of poverty we see
- 00:15:32from the urban poor india in fact even
- 00:15:34from the drug war
- 00:15:35but in terms of especially the regions
- 00:15:38the underdeveloped areas
- 00:15:40where conflict or conflict ensues
- 00:15:43and you know the struggle involves not
- 00:15:45just participation or
- 00:15:47social participation in rallies or even
- 00:15:49in governance but actual armed conflict
- 00:15:52no
- 00:15:53what is the government try um what are
- 00:15:56government
- 00:15:56policies that try to address conflict in
- 00:15:59these areas especially peace is now
- 00:16:00becoming
- 00:16:01a very critical issue for development
- 00:16:04it's as if we're now seeing
- 00:16:05development social services especially
- 00:16:08in underrepresented
- 00:16:09highly impoverished areas they will not
- 00:16:12occur without peace
- 00:16:13remember perhaps you can give us an idea
- 00:16:15yeah first uh if you talk about poverty
- 00:16:17you can link that with a lot of many
- 00:16:19issues
- 00:16:20drugs terrorism rebellion so
- 00:16:24but property is not the only driver of
- 00:16:27many
- 00:16:27of these problems but poverty makes
- 00:16:30people
- 00:16:31pray to this kind of problem and that is
- 00:16:33why our philippine government has
- 00:16:35adopted a medium term development plan
- 00:16:37that addresses the various aspects
- 00:16:41of our national problem including
- 00:16:44security problems
- 00:16:45so when it comes to some to security
- 00:16:47problems like for example muslim
- 00:16:48rebellion and communist insurgency
- 00:16:52we have uh approaches to
- 00:16:55to deal with that so when it comes to
- 00:16:58the muslim rebellion we
- 00:17:00we pursued peace talks with muslim
- 00:17:02rebels so we had a peace talks with the
- 00:17:05modern national liberation front
- 00:17:07that was signed in 1996 then we had this
- 00:17:10uh
- 00:17:12peace agreement with the more islamic
- 00:17:13liberation front signed in 2014 until we
- 00:17:17have this bank some more organic law
- 00:17:19that
- 00:17:20was signed into law last year and now
- 00:17:22being implemented with uh
- 00:17:24with the plebiscite last january now we
- 00:17:26have the bangsamoro autonomous region
- 00:17:28in muslim mindanao replacing the
- 00:17:31autonomous
- 00:17:32region in muslim india now so that's it
- 00:17:34but at the same time we still have
- 00:17:36problem in mindanao
- 00:17:37we are still facing uh what i call
- 00:17:41two sources of armed conflicts in
- 00:17:43mindanao they're still continuing armed
- 00:17:45rebellion
- 00:17:47from the muslim front emanating from
- 00:17:50pro-isis groups
- 00:17:51uh like the bangsamor islamic freedom
- 00:17:53fighter we have the
- 00:17:54abu sayyaf group we have the answer
- 00:17:56caliph philippines and other lawless
- 00:17:58elements of the moro
- 00:18:00islamic liberation front and even rogue
- 00:18:02factions of the moro national liberation
- 00:18:04front so we have that but at the same
- 00:18:06time we also have this problem with
- 00:18:08communist insurgency
- 00:18:09the epicenter of communist insurgency
- 00:18:12right now is in mindanao particularly
- 00:18:14in regions 11 and 12 in agusan provinces
- 00:18:18the above provinces
- 00:18:20[Music]
- 00:18:21so we have this problem now right now
- 00:18:24the approach of the philippine
- 00:18:25government
- 00:18:26is to open to the possibility of peace
- 00:18:29talks with the
- 00:18:32communist movement but at the same time
- 00:18:34they have this uh
- 00:18:37prerequisites for the resumption of
- 00:18:39peace talks but meanwhile
- 00:18:41while that is not happening the
- 00:18:42philippine government is now
- 00:18:44implementing
- 00:18:45what the armed forces of the philippines
- 00:18:47would call focus military operations
- 00:18:50so that's what the philippine government
- 00:18:52is doing now but at the same time
- 00:18:54while doing a military approach the
- 00:18:56philippine government is also
- 00:18:58implementing non-military approach like
- 00:19:01for example
- 00:19:02political solution to the armed conflict
- 00:19:04in mindanao we have the bangsamoro
- 00:19:06organic law but at the same time they
- 00:19:08are implementing uh
- 00:19:10economic measures to improve that so we
- 00:19:12have the mintendo development authority
- 00:19:14to take care of that uh
- 00:19:17issue so
- 00:19:20officially the philippine government is
- 00:19:22implementing comprehensive approach
- 00:19:25but we still need to see whether the
- 00:19:27outcome of the approach will really
- 00:19:28yield fruitful
- 00:19:29uh fruitful benefits to the people in
- 00:19:32need so that's the problem we're only
- 00:19:34talking about mindanao but we also have
- 00:19:35a problem
- 00:19:36in the zone and in misawa yes we all
- 00:19:38communist armies agencies all over the
- 00:19:40philippines the zone besides in mindanao
- 00:19:42and even the threat of terrorism is also
- 00:19:44lost besides in mindanao now
- 00:19:46yeah herman you can add to that we're
- 00:19:48just wondering why is peace so important
- 00:19:51because you mentioned no development
- 00:19:53there can no there can be no development
- 00:19:55unless there is peace no but we're
- 00:19:57talking about
- 00:19:58impoverished areas outside of manila
- 00:20:01yeah
- 00:20:01so why should the mandela
- 00:20:04the urbanite the care about what is
- 00:20:08happening
- 00:20:09in mindanao especially and i'm going to
- 00:20:10ask later about marawi because
- 00:20:12you were talking about military and
- 00:20:15peaceful
- 00:20:16non-military solutions but if we're
- 00:20:18going to use marawi
- 00:20:20as a case study you know there seems to
- 00:20:22be something that but anyway let's start
- 00:20:24with
- 00:20:24um why is peace so important even to the
- 00:20:26person living
- 00:20:27in a privileged position in urban in an
- 00:20:30urban area
- 00:20:31well the literature tells us uh that
- 00:20:34development and security are practically
- 00:20:37uh two phases of the same coin so to
- 00:20:39speak right that
- 00:20:41um in order for us to actually have
- 00:20:42security now there must be a sense that
- 00:20:45our lives are actually becoming better
- 00:20:47both at the societal level as well as in
- 00:20:49the individual level so
- 00:20:50that means the expectations of people
- 00:20:53about
- 00:20:54their ordin their their everyday uh
- 00:20:56conditions
- 00:20:58is connected to security in the sense of
- 00:21:00how they feel about
- 00:21:02themselves right so which means that
- 00:21:07the i guess you could you could actually
- 00:21:09say that
- 00:21:10the the motherhood statement there is
- 00:21:11that development security are actually
- 00:21:12interconnected right
- 00:21:14um but if you want to go down to brass
- 00:21:17tax for instance so you mentioned
- 00:21:19the privileged position of millennials
- 00:21:21right
- 00:21:22why should we care about what's going on
- 00:21:24in the provinces well let's put it this
- 00:21:25way
- 00:21:28many times food scarcity brings up the
- 00:21:32the prices of food for instance where is
- 00:21:34that coming from that's that's actually
- 00:21:36coming from
- 00:21:37supplies coming from outside of metro
- 00:21:38manila right so
- 00:21:40if you're talking about vegetables for
- 00:21:42instance coming from the cordilleras
- 00:21:44right um when things like
- 00:21:47typhoons come in and then they get cut
- 00:21:50off
- 00:21:50right so which means that you're not
- 00:21:52going to get vegetables actually go into
- 00:21:54pangasinan that can be
- 00:21:55transported to metro manila that means
- 00:21:57the price of food actually goes up
- 00:21:59right so it affects us in a very very
- 00:22:01direct way if you're thinking of those
- 00:22:03kinds of things
- 00:22:05now if you think about conflict right
- 00:22:08mindanao is one of our biggest bread
- 00:22:10baskets if you're actually talking about
- 00:22:12the production of food for instance
- 00:22:14um the main problem of mindanao is that
- 00:22:17it's always seen
- 00:22:18as as being besieged by uh
- 00:22:21conflict right there might be
- 00:22:25uh governments that might be interested
- 00:22:27in investing there
- 00:22:28you know in order to actually help
- 00:22:29economic development there but they're
- 00:22:31always stunted by the fact that
- 00:22:33well we don't we're not sure about what
- 00:22:36what the security situation
- 00:22:37is no um uh tourists from other
- 00:22:40countries are always prevented from
- 00:22:42coming going to mindanao
- 00:22:43why well because of the conflict that's
- 00:22:45going on there right
- 00:22:47uh they always get these kinds of uh
- 00:22:49these kinds of uh
- 00:22:50advisories from their respective and
- 00:22:52embassies right so in other words
- 00:22:54if you want if you want uh conditions
- 00:22:58economic conditions to actually improve
- 00:23:00in these areas outside of metro manila
- 00:23:02the issue of peace and security becomes
- 00:23:05an important
- 00:23:06factor and that no to us to to a large
- 00:23:10extent
- 00:23:10is eventually going to uh to rebound to
- 00:23:13the
- 00:23:13conditions that we have in metro manila
- 00:23:16right so it's important
- 00:23:17for millennials to or people in metro
- 00:23:19manila to care about what's going
- 00:23:22on outside right it's not just finding
- 00:23:25it difficult to go
- 00:23:26to go to the beautiful beaches of of
- 00:23:28bongao
- 00:23:29in uh in tawitawi for instance right so
- 00:23:31it's those kinds of things that we need
- 00:23:33to actually
- 00:23:34uh understand that that our security
- 00:23:37you know is connected to the security of
- 00:23:39other people you know outside of metro
- 00:23:41manila
- 00:23:42that's a very good point so basically
- 00:23:44the connection the
- 00:23:45the position there is we have to care
- 00:23:48because
- 00:23:49we are related or we are connected to
- 00:23:51them which brings it back normal to this
- 00:23:54marawi because um you mentioned
- 00:23:56something about military solutions to
- 00:23:58addressing armed conflict especially
- 00:24:00in um conflict areas like mindanao
- 00:24:03now marawi for um for a lot of people is
- 00:24:07a very popular issue you know because
- 00:24:09of course the the fears of martial law
- 00:24:12so we can see the military solution
- 00:24:14to what is happening in marawi but there
- 00:24:17are it's also the other side of the coin
- 00:24:19which is
- 00:24:19reconstruction because after the the
- 00:24:22various military operations in marawi
- 00:24:24the we we can see you know there is the
- 00:24:27armed
- 00:24:28the the armed solution of the state but
- 00:24:30what about reconstruction what
- 00:24:32about the lives of the people in our
- 00:24:33because last time i heard i think the
- 00:24:36the government position was it will
- 00:24:38leave the reconstruction of marawi
- 00:24:41to public to private enterprises and
- 00:24:44what do you think about that and how
- 00:24:45does that relate to addressing conflict
- 00:24:47in
- 00:24:48marawi and later on to the greater area
- 00:24:50of mindanao well if you really want to
- 00:24:53improve the situation in marawi you
- 00:24:55really have to rebuild
- 00:24:57marawi but unfortunately there are some
- 00:25:00issues regarding how to start the
- 00:25:02building like for example the concept of
- 00:25:04normalization
- 00:25:05uh the the people affected by the
- 00:25:09moravian siege
- 00:25:10they want the resumption of their normal
- 00:25:12life unfortunately
- 00:25:14the philippine government and the people
- 00:25:16affected by the siege
- 00:25:18they have different concept of
- 00:25:20normalization
- 00:25:22for the affected families particularly
- 00:25:25in the main battle area now called the
- 00:25:27most affected
- 00:25:27areas their concept of their
- 00:25:30normalization
- 00:25:31is to be able to go back to their
- 00:25:32original place
- 00:25:34and rebuild their home but
- 00:25:38the philippine government has a
- 00:25:39different concept of a normalization
- 00:25:41it's a new normal meaning
- 00:25:43they want to rebuild a new marawi that
- 00:25:45is not
- 00:25:46the same with the old marawi a new
- 00:25:48marawi will rise up
- 00:25:50so now we have that kind of problem now
- 00:25:52the philippine government presented
- 00:25:55a uh a model of a numerawi
- 00:25:58like uh several stories of building
- 00:26:00where you can
- 00:26:01put all these stresses today no we want
- 00:26:03to come back to our
- 00:26:05regional house and then rebuild it even
- 00:26:07without the help of the government
- 00:26:09even the private sector they will
- 00:26:10rebuild their yes they want to go back
- 00:26:12but this is now the problem
- 00:26:14most of them cannot go back they don't
- 00:26:16have land titles to their area they are
- 00:26:17informal settlers from the perspective
- 00:26:19of the state
- 00:26:21and now that is fueling frustration now
- 00:26:24so they are telling them you can go back
- 00:26:27but not
- 00:26:28the old way there will be a new normal
- 00:26:31in marawi
- 00:26:32and now that's now the debate now the
- 00:26:35excuse of the philippine government now
- 00:26:36on why there is a delay
- 00:26:38in the building and reconstruction
- 00:26:40activities that there are still a lot of
- 00:26:42unexploded ordinance and bumps in the
- 00:26:44area
- 00:26:45they're still clearing it okay and they
- 00:26:47are now in the final phase of the
- 00:26:48clearing
- 00:26:50once that is clear then they can start
- 00:26:52the the what they call the vertical
- 00:26:54and horizontal uh uh
- 00:26:57infrastructure development but the
- 00:27:00problem is that
- 00:27:01uh the people is resisting the
- 00:27:04the model being presented by the
- 00:27:07philippine government because they
- 00:27:08insist
- 00:27:09to go back to their original homes and
- 00:27:11even without the help of the government
- 00:27:13they will rebuild their homes
- 00:27:16samia we don't need we don't need
- 00:27:18government help just allow us
- 00:27:20to go back there and we will rebuild our
- 00:27:22houses
- 00:27:24but you know there is technicalities
- 00:27:28technicalities about where your land
- 00:27:30title technicalities about
- 00:27:32how can you rebuild your home and then
- 00:27:34technicalities about
- 00:27:35still not safe to rebuild your home so
- 00:27:38the delay
- 00:27:39in the normalization pace is causing a
- 00:27:43lot of frustrations now
- 00:27:44and this frustration is in fact being
- 00:27:47taken advantage
- 00:27:48by threat groups to recruit
- 00:27:52um rebels in the area now i went there
- 00:27:55during the first year of marawi and the
- 00:27:57second year of marawi liberation
- 00:27:59and during the first year of marawi
- 00:28:01liberation in the second year
- 00:28:03i see deterioration of the situation and
- 00:28:05i see different three refugee comes
- 00:28:07there
- 00:28:08and the tent city then we have a middle
- 00:28:11city
- 00:28:13made of of nipple heart and
- 00:28:17cemented refugee comes
- 00:28:20made of good houses but small but with
- 00:28:23all the amenities like like the wi-fi
- 00:28:26and even
- 00:28:26[Music]
- 00:28:29tb signals and electricity but i think
- 00:28:32the most problematic
- 00:28:34area there is the density but there is
- 00:28:37no electricity
- 00:28:38no water no supplies and i think that's
- 00:28:41a field ground
- 00:28:42for recruitment and this is the place
- 00:28:44where you can see the highest level of
- 00:28:45frustrations
- 00:28:47highest labor processions now when
- 00:28:49president dr said that i will
- 00:28:52encourage the private sector to rebuild
- 00:28:54marawi
- 00:28:55it's fuel willing frustration among
- 00:28:57those who
- 00:28:59that have capacity
- 00:29:02to access the private sector so what
- 00:29:04will happen to the
- 00:29:06ordinary people and now
- 00:29:09armed groups are taking advantage of the
- 00:29:12situation
- 00:29:13to recruit from their ranks to continue
- 00:29:15the rebellion and they're offering
- 00:29:18a monetary
- 00:29:21reward for those who will join them in
- 00:29:23the
- 00:29:25in the name of another ideology
- 00:29:28propagated
- 00:29:29by the islamic state so that's now the
- 00:29:31situation in marawi so
- 00:29:32the philippine government right now is
- 00:29:34saying that in order to prevent this
- 00:29:35thing to happen
- 00:29:36then we have to implement martial law
- 00:29:38and when it comes to martial
- 00:29:40law it's a debate i don't know in the
- 00:29:41area but um
- 00:29:44the those benefiting from martial
- 00:29:47implementation they like martial law
- 00:29:48but those being affected by the by the
- 00:29:52military operations uh they
- 00:29:54they dislike martial but this is what i
- 00:29:56observe about the effect of martial law
- 00:29:59the implementation of martial law in
- 00:30:01mindanao
- 00:30:02claims the behavior of local politicians
- 00:30:05and warlords
- 00:30:06now local politicians are
- 00:30:09exercising restraint in terms of using
- 00:30:11violence in the area because the
- 00:30:13military will say if you don't behave we
- 00:30:15will take over remember this is
- 00:30:16martial law we will take over the local
- 00:30:19government
- 00:30:20so those local uh
- 00:30:23politicians involved in riddle right now
- 00:30:25or meaning clan war
- 00:30:26no longer doing they read the by our
- 00:30:28violence is now in the social media
- 00:30:31you know they're quarreling over social
- 00:30:32media right now but the use of violence
- 00:30:34is being tamed by martial
- 00:30:36but martial law cannot stay there
- 00:30:39forever
- 00:30:40so that's the effect because
- 00:30:42[Music]
- 00:30:45if you want a normal situation in
- 00:30:47mindanao then eventually the civilians
- 00:30:49should take over
- 00:30:50the governance area there so now
- 00:30:53there is now contemplation on whether to
- 00:30:55extend a martial again
- 00:30:56because the situation in the area is
- 00:30:58still
- 00:31:00difficult there's still a threat from
- 00:31:02from
- 00:31:04pro isis elements there they're still
- 00:31:07continuing anthony of foreign terrorist
- 00:31:09fighters
- 00:31:11the bangsamor islamic freedom fighter is
- 00:31:13now
- 00:31:14what we call the new mia left they're
- 00:31:17continuing the arm struggle there
- 00:31:19uh and the bank samara islamic freedom
- 00:31:21fighter particularly the one being led
- 00:31:23by
- 00:31:23commander toraipe is now systematically
- 00:31:27recruiting affected families by the
- 00:31:29marawi seeds
- 00:31:31so that's it and another
- 00:31:35area to be to to be uh to be a watch
- 00:31:38is the performance of the bangsamoro
- 00:31:41government
- 00:31:42right now there is an milf led
- 00:31:44transition government
- 00:31:46they have three years to prepare
- 00:31:48everything in order to set up a new
- 00:31:50political system that will dedicate her
- 00:31:52to the aspiration of the bank samurai
- 00:31:53people
- 00:31:54if they don't deliver in three years
- 00:31:56that will fuel another frustration
- 00:31:58so that's that's the challenge now of
- 00:32:01the
- 00:32:02of the uh of the bangsamoro government
- 00:32:04right now if
- 00:32:05they fail to deliver by 2022
- 00:32:09then the local politicians and the local
- 00:32:10warlords can hijack the agenda
- 00:32:13of the banks and motor government by
- 00:32:152022 because there will be another
- 00:32:16election
- 00:32:17in 2022 so who will constitute the
- 00:32:20bangsamoro government
- 00:32:22if the old faces will
- 00:32:25form the bangsamoro government then we
- 00:32:27will face more of the same scenario
- 00:32:29in mindanao but if the bangsamoro
- 00:32:32government will deliver and
- 00:32:33can make a difference between now and
- 00:32:352022
- 00:32:36i think that can spell the difference
- 00:32:39but still the
- 00:32:40the situation is very very uh fluid so
- 00:32:43right now
- 00:32:44i consider the main challenge on the
- 00:32:46hand of the banks of motor government
- 00:32:48they need to deliver because if they
- 00:32:51fail to deliver
- 00:32:52armed rebellion will not stop in that
- 00:32:55question because you mentioned about you
- 00:32:57talked about the disconnect
- 00:32:59between governance and ordinary people
- 00:33:02and this has
- 00:33:02their human their level of human
- 00:33:04insecurity in fact
- 00:33:06made them vulnerable to armed groups
- 00:33:09isn't that sort of like a vicious cycle
- 00:33:11wherein due to the disconnect
- 00:33:14you have people being enticed to join
- 00:33:17or having the motivation to join these
- 00:33:20uh to join armed resistance
- 00:33:22which later on would justify the
- 00:33:25continued
- 00:33:26existence and implementation of martial
- 00:33:29law in various areas of mindanao that's
- 00:33:31the dilemma of the stately ui case the
- 00:33:33government
- 00:33:34acts very slow and the armed
- 00:33:38groups they act very fast so by the time
- 00:33:41you find a solution to assert the
- 00:33:42government finds a solution to a certain
- 00:33:44problem
- 00:33:45the nature of threat has already evolved
- 00:33:46because they act wise as faster than the
- 00:33:48government
- 00:33:49like for example you want to rebuild
- 00:33:50malawi the government
- 00:33:52is slow by nature of the bureaucracy and
- 00:33:54the political process
- 00:33:55and all the technicalities but at the
- 00:33:57same time armed groups they recruit very
- 00:33:59fast
- 00:34:01they recruit very fast and now two years
- 00:34:03have passed
- 00:34:04and within that two years well the most
- 00:34:07affected area
- 00:34:09is still there no no no upward and
- 00:34:12no vertical and horizontal
- 00:34:14infrastructures
- 00:34:16but in two years we already have you
- 00:34:18know cadre
- 00:34:20of another local fighters
- 00:34:24that the government needs to face
- 00:34:28thank you rama so i was just i just like
- 00:34:30lead i'd like to lead to that
- 00:34:32next discussion because martial law
- 00:34:34during when
- 00:34:35um when president duterte attempted or
- 00:34:38pushed forward the idea of martial law
- 00:34:40for not just for marawi but i think for
- 00:34:42for most areas
- 00:34:44it was met with resistance you know from
- 00:34:46various sectors
- 00:34:48various groups but eventually it was
- 00:34:51passed by congress it was approved by
- 00:34:53congress with an overwhelming
- 00:34:55majority from both the house
- 00:34:58and the senate and then it's also
- 00:35:01virtually unheard of
- 00:35:02for martial law in our history you know
- 00:35:04with the exception of
- 00:35:05uh the time of president for martial law
- 00:35:08to be extended
- 00:35:09again with an overwhelming majority from
- 00:35:12both houses of congress now
- 00:35:14i would just like to get your ideas
- 00:35:16about this hermano
- 00:35:17because it seems so if marawi is a mike
- 00:35:20if we can use marawi as a micro host the
- 00:35:24disconnect between
- 00:35:25government and people it seems to be not
- 00:35:28just on
- 00:35:28a local level like marawi or a an island
- 00:35:32level like mindanao but even from a
- 00:35:35national level where you have on one
- 00:35:37hand
- 00:35:37people's aspirations and then democratic
- 00:35:41institutions doing something else or
- 00:35:44implementing a different or implementing
- 00:35:46projects or policies of a different
- 00:35:48direction
- 00:35:50this is where the question of um
- 00:35:53institutionalized governance actually
- 00:35:55comes in right
- 00:35:56the assumption is that um uh it doesn't
- 00:36:00matter
- 00:36:01which party is in power not that there
- 00:36:03are really political parties here but
- 00:36:04but but
- 00:36:05it doesn't matter who uh uh which
- 00:36:07parties in power who is the president no
- 00:36:09and which administration is actually
- 00:36:12in control of government that
- 00:36:15there's still a continuity as far as
- 00:36:18policies are actually
- 00:36:22concerned right there are a number of
- 00:36:24issues here uh
- 00:36:26number one is that and this is connected
- 00:36:28to the idea of martial law why
- 00:36:31why are we turning to martial law for
- 00:36:33instance why is it
- 00:36:34something that that the the third
- 00:36:36administration sees the
- 00:36:38uh as the way out of the kind of
- 00:36:40problems we actually have now
- 00:36:42um it's it's a shortcut right it's
- 00:36:45somehow a recognition or at least
- 00:36:50a sense on the part of the
- 00:36:52administration that going with normal
- 00:36:54politics
- 00:36:55is not going to actually address the
- 00:36:57kinds of issues we actually have
- 00:36:59right especially if you're talking about
- 00:37:00time bound no
- 00:37:02or time urgent uh kinds of issues if you
- 00:37:04talk about the marawi
- 00:37:06rehab for instance you know um as
- 00:37:09people continue to be prevented from
- 00:37:12continuing with their normal lives not
- 00:37:14then the level of
- 00:37:15frustration and uh the the expectations
- 00:37:18that they actually have
- 00:37:19now keep on growing up so the the
- 00:37:21question there is
- 00:37:23can normal politics deliver on this
- 00:37:25right and and i think
- 00:37:26the the sense of the administration that
- 00:37:29no
- 00:37:30right and and we can see this in in
- 00:37:32terms of other issues right when we talk
- 00:37:33about the idea of
- 00:37:36traffic in metro manila for instance
- 00:37:39right
- 00:37:40it's a big issue why because some some
- 00:37:42estimates made by the
- 00:37:44asian development back several years
- 00:37:46back now i've actually said that
- 00:37:48our economic losses because of everyday
- 00:37:50traffic are enormous for instance right
- 00:37:53um and what is it that president duterte
- 00:37:55is actually saying that
- 00:37:57you have to give me emergency powers in
- 00:37:59order for me to be able to deal with the
- 00:38:00issue of
- 00:38:01if you don't give me emergency powers
- 00:38:03then i'm sorry then that's that's not
- 00:38:05something that we can actually uh
- 00:38:06deal with so in other words the the the
- 00:38:09sense
- 00:38:10is a a um
- 00:38:13a diminution if you will of trust in
- 00:38:16local political processes right
- 00:38:19the the sense is that we have to
- 00:38:22actually do shortcuts we have to do
- 00:38:23emergency
- 00:38:25um or to institute emergency mechanisms
- 00:38:27in order to be able to
- 00:38:29address all of these issues now we can't
- 00:38:32operate that way right
- 00:38:33in other words um this is where the
- 00:38:35issue of government capacity or state
- 00:38:37capacity actually comes in
- 00:38:39we can't keep on saying that well in
- 00:38:41order to address
- 00:38:43in others we can't keep on um dealing
- 00:38:46with everyday christ's everyday problems
- 00:38:49you know as
- 00:38:50crisis yeah right you know just be short
- 00:38:53you know that's that's this is basically
- 00:38:55what's what's going on right now
- 00:38:57um that we're treating what ought to be
- 00:38:59normal political processes or normal
- 00:39:02political issues
- 00:39:03you know as crisis situations which
- 00:39:05require
- 00:39:06no urgent
- 00:39:09uh a certain urgency no and therefore
- 00:39:13a demand on our part to actually move
- 00:39:15from normal politics to something else
- 00:39:18and i think we have to get out of that
- 00:39:20uh uh mindset right
- 00:39:21um although admittedly uh we've dug the
- 00:39:25hole
- 00:39:25you know over all of these decades of i
- 00:39:28won't say that
- 00:39:30i won't say that it's it's been uh uh um
- 00:39:33misgovernance if you will right but but
- 00:39:36it's just that
- 00:39:37so many things that are really basic no
- 00:39:40and that has to do with government
- 00:39:42capacities to do you know agencies being
- 00:39:44able to do what they're supposed to do
- 00:39:46right um have been set aside
- 00:39:50no and the the tendency is to actually
- 00:39:53act on these things you know in terms of
- 00:39:56uh
- 00:39:56emergency uh conditions not treating
- 00:39:58them as crisis for instance no and
- 00:40:00trying to
- 00:40:01um the the idea of uh of the increase in
- 00:40:04our
- 00:40:05inflation rate for instance no um just
- 00:40:08uh
- 00:40:09towards the end of 2018 for instance
- 00:40:12um the question there is what needs to
- 00:40:15be done
- 00:40:15and of course there were a lot of issues
- 00:40:18that were actually
- 00:40:19being brought in um but it's not normal
- 00:40:23politics that was actually being uh
- 00:40:25advanced there right we need to actually
- 00:40:27bring in
- 00:40:28things like clarification like you know
- 00:40:30and this has to be urgently
- 00:40:31addressed right which raises questions
- 00:40:34of why
- 00:40:35why is it that every time we deal with
- 00:40:38these kinds of problems
- 00:40:39it's always a crisis right for our
- 00:40:42centralization of power
- 00:40:44exactly right um uh so we to a large
- 00:40:47extent this is something that we need to
- 00:40:49actually uh
- 00:40:50uh address to a large extent right the
- 00:40:53the the over uh
- 00:40:56reliance on on on on governments more
- 00:41:00particularly the overlines
- 00:41:02in areas where you have uh crisis
- 00:41:04conditions like uh i'm in the now
- 00:41:06friends
- 00:41:06the over reliance on the military being
- 00:41:09able to being at the forefront of
- 00:41:11what is essentially governance right so
- 00:41:13in other words what we need to do is
- 00:41:15strengthen government capacities
- 00:41:17to do normal government activities
- 00:41:21you know and address normal and to
- 00:41:23undertake those activities in order to
- 00:41:24address
- 00:41:25normal uh issues you know so that we
- 00:41:28don't get to a point where it's always
- 00:41:30going to be a crisis that we need to
- 00:41:31actually address
- 00:41:33that's an interesting point from because
- 00:41:34i was thinking you mentioned something
- 00:41:36about crisis
- 00:41:37urgency and yet not every issue
- 00:41:41is a crisis no it requires rather than
- 00:41:44an immediate action it requires
- 00:41:46government to work or function properly
- 00:41:49but
- 00:41:50what i was thinking was for people
- 00:41:53of a certain position or certain
- 00:41:55privileges
- 00:41:56they can wait no but i was thinking
- 00:41:59because that might be
- 00:42:01the root no of the popularity you know
- 00:42:04because
- 00:42:04even with all these issues not the
- 00:42:06popularity rate of the of the government
- 00:42:08in particular and it seems to be still
- 00:42:10very high but what i was thinking was
- 00:42:14the most people especially those in
- 00:42:16impoverished areas or those who are not
- 00:42:17in
- 00:42:18privileged positions they're in the hole
- 00:42:20that you were mentioning they're at the
- 00:42:22bottom of the hole
- 00:42:23and they feel that government and actual
- 00:42:26uh
- 00:42:27proper government function will not lead
- 00:42:30to
- 00:42:30immediate relief so that's why they feel
- 00:42:32president duterte or there is a need for
- 00:42:34authoritarian rule centralization of
- 00:42:36power
- 00:42:37for them what do you think would be the
- 00:42:40trade-offs for such a scenario
- 00:42:42wherein for example marawi
- 00:42:46due to um the influence on congress he
- 00:42:50can ease
- 00:42:50and now especially in the recent
- 00:42:52elections now where now a super majority
- 00:42:55is uh it's in the the supermajority
- 00:42:59in the legislative is actually now
- 00:43:02connected to
- 00:43:03or engaging there's a very close
- 00:43:05connection between the administration
- 00:43:07and then you have the judiciary now
- 00:43:10being i think how many appointees i
- 00:43:13think
- 00:43:13uh does the president that they have for
- 00:43:15this particular batch of
- 00:43:17uh justices but i think it will comply
- 00:43:20it will comprise a significant majority
- 00:43:22you know
- 00:43:23and then of course you have issues or
- 00:43:25allegations not that
- 00:43:27the the executive is interfering
- 00:43:30with the judiciary because they feel the
- 00:43:32judiciary is a
- 00:43:34bar is a barrier to necessary emergency
- 00:43:37actions
- 00:43:38what would be the trade-off in the event
- 00:43:40that
- 00:43:41centralization of power or authoritarian
- 00:43:43rule does happen
- 00:43:44so let's start with your man well what
- 00:43:47we have right now is a populist
- 00:43:48government
- 00:43:49with a very limited time to deliver
- 00:43:52his campaign promises so the government
- 00:43:55now resorts to a lot
- 00:43:57of shortcuts in order to continue the
- 00:43:59popularity so
- 00:44:01that's now the situation that we have so
- 00:44:03my
- 00:44:05sense is that this government is more
- 00:44:07interested
- 00:44:08on short-term gain without
- 00:44:12looking into the long-term consequences
- 00:44:15anyway he will only stay until 2022 so
- 00:44:18assuming he stays until 2022. so that's
- 00:44:21his mind frame
- 00:44:22to to to to remain popular
- 00:44:26and use this popularity to justify what
- 00:44:28he's currently doing
- 00:44:30so that's now the style of the the
- 00:44:32government right now
- 00:44:34and if you will look at his tendency his
- 00:44:36tendency is really very liberal
- 00:44:39not not the liberal meaning uh using the
- 00:44:42trappings of the very interesting term
- 00:44:44not non-liberal but illegal he's an
- 00:44:47illiberal
- 00:44:48uh leader using the
- 00:44:51trappings of democracy to justify his
- 00:44:55leadership but at the same time
- 00:44:57undermining the same democracy
- 00:44:59through his authoritarian
- 00:45:02approach anyway this is uh this
- 00:45:05this is the style of the the 30
- 00:45:07government but the good thing
- 00:45:09we still have the democratic
- 00:45:11institutions
- 00:45:12and we can still use these democratic
- 00:45:15institutions to check
- 00:45:17the current government and account for
- 00:45:20the abuse in power but at the same time
- 00:45:24duterte is taking advantage of his
- 00:45:28popularity
- 00:45:30to lure other government officials to
- 00:45:33rally behind him
- 00:45:34so now he has the support of the
- 00:45:35judiciary the congress
- 00:45:38the the local governments now
- 00:45:42that encourages him more to do a lot of
- 00:45:45extra
- 00:45:48extra extra measures to address
- 00:45:52many problems that we face as a nation
- 00:45:56that's why he always makes an issue a
- 00:45:59crisis
- 00:46:00in order to justify his
- 00:46:04action so in fact
- 00:46:07my term for that is that he wants to
- 00:46:09securitize everything
- 00:46:10to justify security measure is
- 00:46:14securitizing everything
- 00:46:16even the problem of traffic is uh
- 00:46:18security
- 00:46:19so mmda a former military the
- 00:46:22lga now there is a pending uh pending
- 00:46:25bill in congress about uh
- 00:46:28law for homeland security in order to
- 00:46:30empower
- 00:46:32the the local government on security
- 00:46:35security matters
- 00:46:36then we now have the the amendment of
- 00:46:38the human security account 2007
- 00:46:41which will become the new anti-terrorism
- 00:46:43law by by
- 00:46:44by this year now we have the rotc uh
- 00:46:47rotc now there's now a bill in congress
- 00:46:49on the
- 00:46:51national defense act a new national
- 00:46:53defense act
- 00:46:54so a lot of measures that
- 00:46:58this government wants to
- 00:47:01have in order to justify more power of
- 00:47:04the state
- 00:47:05more power of the state so
- 00:47:09that's now the the the situation and the
- 00:47:12police is happy
- 00:47:13the military is happy because it's
- 00:47:15empowering them
- 00:47:16empowering them but the good thing is
- 00:47:18that we still have the 1987 constitution
- 00:47:21now they want to change the 1987
- 00:47:23constitution
- 00:47:24in order to adopt a new political system
- 00:47:27that is will be federal informed
- 00:47:29but i don't think uh that will prosper
- 00:47:32by 2022
- 00:47:33but what the philippine government is
- 00:47:36doing now
- 00:47:37is by these issues now duterte now have
- 00:47:42in enough room for political maneuver
- 00:47:45with all these uh
- 00:47:48people behind him and the result of the
- 00:47:51election this
- 00:47:52year is like a zeal of approval
- 00:47:55of what it's doing so enough the people
- 00:47:58seems to like it the popularity is still
- 00:48:01high but the middle class like us the
- 00:48:02intellectual
- 00:48:04like us find it very problematic
- 00:48:08thank you anything to add uh herman um
- 00:48:11yes i i agree with what romell is
- 00:48:12actually saying
- 00:48:13and and and to a large extent one of the
- 00:48:15things that needs to be uh
- 00:48:17take into consideration here um are
- 00:48:20is that that balance between uh
- 00:48:24short-term uh
- 00:48:27problem-solving and the long-term
- 00:48:29consequences that this might have
- 00:48:32you know for things like institutions
- 00:48:34for instance right
- 00:48:35um and and i think this is
- 00:48:39part of the the uh uh shall we say
- 00:48:43um the attempts on our part to really
- 00:48:48reflect
- 00:48:48on you know what is it that we're
- 00:48:50actually uh
- 00:48:51facing right now uh because the question
- 00:48:54here is
- 00:48:55um are we in agreement with the idea
- 00:48:57that
- 00:48:58um a president with authoritarian
- 00:49:02tendencies who is actually what we need
- 00:49:05right and and i think um many of the
- 00:49:08surveys that actually show that he's
- 00:49:10popular
- 00:49:11you know uh actually might not agree
- 00:49:14with that particular point but they like
- 00:49:16what president duterte or at least the
- 00:49:18kind of projection that president
- 00:49:20duterte is actually making
- 00:49:21you know um in this case it's really a
- 00:49:23question of
- 00:49:24well what exactly is it that he has
- 00:49:26actually been able to achieve
- 00:49:28people see that there are achievements
- 00:49:30that there are
- 00:49:31that the administration is doing
- 00:49:33something right that that might be
- 00:49:35debatable but at least as far as
- 00:49:37uh as far as uh the large majority
- 00:49:40uh that the surveys actually show
- 00:49:44of approval for what he's actually doing
- 00:49:47seems to indicate that
- 00:49:49that people seem to actually believe in
- 00:49:52his leadership and i think
- 00:49:55the problem there of course is that yeah
- 00:49:57we're looking at the short-term
- 00:49:58consequences
- 00:49:59right uh um he has done a number of
- 00:50:03things that we actually
- 00:50:04that the people actually like for
- 00:50:06instance but the question there of
- 00:50:07course is
- 00:50:08well um over the long term if it's no
- 00:50:10longer a duterte is actually sitting as
- 00:50:12president
- 00:50:13no what are the consequences then right
- 00:50:17because that means that we must
- 00:50:18constantly have somebody
- 00:50:20with that kind of authoritarian tendency
- 00:50:23to make things
- 00:50:23actually work now if we're going to
- 00:50:26ignore the consequences as far as
- 00:50:28strengthening of institutions now that
- 00:50:29that kind of leadership is actually
- 00:50:30going to
- 00:50:31uh going to lead to definitely because i
- 00:50:35was thinking as well though because the
- 00:50:36centralization of power you know
- 00:50:38the concentration of power on the
- 00:50:40executive especially specifically the
- 00:50:42president
- 00:50:43it has local ramifications definitely
- 00:50:45you know
- 00:50:46but what about the in what about
- 00:50:48international relations because i
- 00:50:50remember i think it was
- 00:50:51under the duterte term when we
- 00:50:53arbitrarily pulled up
- 00:50:54from the international criminal court
- 00:50:58which is an international agreement but
- 00:51:00all of a sudden
- 00:51:01that since the executive said we do not
- 00:51:03want this
- 00:51:05they were able to pull it out so the
- 00:51:07institutions were actually supposed to
- 00:51:08be in place
- 00:51:09for that issue not it doesn't mean that
- 00:51:11no no it was a correct or incorrect
- 00:51:13action
- 00:51:13but rather there were institutions that
- 00:51:16should have at the very least
- 00:51:18engage that discussion so
- 00:51:21given the super majority the
- 00:51:22concentration of power no
- 00:51:24on the executive know how does that
- 00:51:26impact foreign relations
- 00:51:28especially you know since there is an
- 00:51:30issue with china
- 00:51:32and national sovereignty just recently i
- 00:51:34think it was june 9 right
- 00:51:36when a filipino fishing vessel was sunk
- 00:51:38and then
- 00:51:39abandoned by the annan what do you think
- 00:51:41about this
- 00:51:42notion of concentration of power and
- 00:51:44then international relations with china
- 00:51:46let's start with you well
- 00:51:48democratic states particularly from
- 00:51:50northern america
- 00:51:51and western europe they have a problem
- 00:51:53with duterte but
- 00:51:55the rest of the world they don't have
- 00:51:57any problem like russia
- 00:51:58does not have every problem china does
- 00:52:00not have any problem turkey
- 00:52:02does not have any problem the other
- 00:52:03world they don't have any problem
- 00:52:05but what seems to be the common
- 00:52:06denominator with the states well that's
- 00:52:08the
- 00:52:08that's the the common denominator is
- 00:52:11that duterte knows that it's dealing
- 00:52:13with other states with similar
- 00:52:14characteristics
- 00:52:16that these are strong men you know they
- 00:52:19find democracy too limiting for
- 00:52:20governance so
- 00:52:22uh so that's that's why in in academia
- 00:52:24we have now uh
- 00:52:25uh we are now debating on democracy
- 00:52:27never what
- 00:52:28from the third wave of democracy after
- 00:52:30the end of the cold war now we have
- 00:52:32a regression you know democratic
- 00:52:34regression
- 00:52:36so that's the kind of context where you
- 00:52:38can see uh duterte's leadership now
- 00:52:41so duterte is very popular in
- 00:52:44selected countries in southeast asia
- 00:52:46very popular in laos cambodia
- 00:52:48myanmar even in singapore in malaysia
- 00:52:51and even indonesia
- 00:52:52popular and what are the states you know
- 00:52:55you know
- 00:52:56and if you will also see we are so close
- 00:52:59with north korea
- 00:53:01we're so close with north korea okay but
- 00:53:03at the same time
- 00:53:04the philippines is also very close with
- 00:53:06japan and we could
- 00:53:08the philippine continues to be an ally
- 00:53:10of the united states we continue to have
- 00:53:12very good relationship with australia
- 00:53:14although they have problems on the way
- 00:53:17duterte is doing on the area of
- 00:53:22democracy and human rights but they
- 00:53:25still
- 00:53:25have very good relationship with duterte
- 00:53:28and what the third is doing now is
- 00:53:30i think it's clever clever diplomacy
- 00:53:33of of dealing with the major powers and
- 00:53:36dealing with the smaller states
- 00:53:39this government knows how to deal with
- 00:53:41the needs of
- 00:53:42all these foreign countries
- 00:53:46like for example we continue to have
- 00:53:48very strong relationship with the united
- 00:53:50states despite
- 00:53:51our so-called paradigm shift to
- 00:53:54china in fact in my conversation with
- 00:53:58american
- 00:53:59and chinese experts there is now an
- 00:54:01issue
- 00:54:02if you go to china china is happy about
- 00:54:04friendly gesture of the 30 but at the
- 00:54:06same time
- 00:54:07china is questioning the sincerity of
- 00:54:10duterte
- 00:54:10because the third is still having this
- 00:54:12good relationship with with the united
- 00:54:14states but if you
- 00:54:15talk to the united states experts
- 00:54:19they're questioning the loyalty of
- 00:54:22philippine government to the alliance
- 00:54:24system
- 00:54:25but now the third is so pragmatic
- 00:54:28to really play the major power game and
- 00:54:31at the same time
- 00:54:32play with the smaller states in in asean
- 00:54:37he knows how to deal with asean but
- 00:54:41what's the outcome of all these things
- 00:54:43what the outcome of all these things
- 00:54:44i think we're getting things
- 00:54:48from us because of that we continue to
- 00:54:50receive foreign military assistance from
- 00:54:52the united states this year alone we're
- 00:54:54having a lot
- 00:54:55like more than 200 different joint
- 00:54:58military exercises with our american
- 00:55:00counterparts with the participation of
- 00:55:02other states like
- 00:55:03japan and australia now we are receiving
- 00:55:05a lot of deals with
- 00:55:07with china although big big ticket
- 00:55:11deals are still not uh
- 00:55:14being delivered but still getting and
- 00:55:16we're getting a lot more from japan in
- 00:55:18fact
- 00:55:19among all the major powers we're getting
- 00:55:21concrete
- 00:55:22things from japan so if you will notice
- 00:55:25now from the
- 00:55:26recent statements of president duterte i
- 00:55:28think prime minister abe has influenced
- 00:55:30the
- 00:55:30mind that the thinking the current
- 00:55:32thinking now of the 30 when it comes to
- 00:55:34the issue of the south china sea
- 00:55:35and when it comes to our relationship
- 00:55:36with with china i think his visit to
- 00:55:38japan
- 00:55:40really created very
- 00:55:43big impact on the current thinking now
- 00:55:45of
- 00:55:46the 30 and now we just finished the
- 00:55:48still ongoing meeting in honolulu
- 00:55:50hawaii on the mutual defense board and
- 00:55:52that is influencing the meeting and now
- 00:55:55president duterte and president xi
- 00:55:57jinping met in
- 00:55:58beijing last april during the second bri
- 00:56:02uh forum meeting the belt and road
- 00:56:04initiative meeting
- 00:56:05so all these things are now making
- 00:56:08many many states being puzzled
- 00:56:11so what's your endgame what's your
- 00:56:14bottom line and i think the bottom
- 00:56:16line is of the duterte i want to get the
- 00:56:19best
- 00:56:20of all these words okay
- 00:56:23and and i think that's making the
- 00:56:25duterte government very very resilient
- 00:56:28in the area of foreign policy in the
- 00:56:30area of international diplomacy
- 00:56:32hermann just like racist question
- 00:56:34because you were
- 00:56:36roman was saying obviously there's an
- 00:56:38international game
- 00:56:39and duterte is playing along or is
- 00:56:41playing based on these issues
- 00:56:43but if there's anything that we can see
- 00:56:45as well now there are trade-offs
- 00:56:47not to this particular this game no to
- 00:56:49the gains that he gets
- 00:56:51specifically china because there are now
- 00:56:53issues
- 00:56:54of in return for these investments
- 00:56:57it would mean surrendering or that's the
- 00:57:00popular impression
- 00:57:01that sovereignty national territory and
- 00:57:04areas are being surrendered no
- 00:57:05so just like to get your opinion on this
- 00:57:07government and also this
- 00:57:09notion of that when we were talking
- 00:57:11about foreign policy if you notice
- 00:57:12romano
- 00:57:13we were saying this is what the third is
- 00:57:14two in the thirties i think
- 00:57:16in a democratic society foreign policy
- 00:57:20should be decided upon by people
- 00:57:23through institutions then represented by
- 00:57:27the president in this ah no no well i
- 00:57:30think it might be
- 00:57:31different it's as if you're saying the
- 00:57:34territox or the the president talks to
- 00:57:36these
- 00:57:37particular heads of state and then he
- 00:57:39brings back whatever
- 00:57:40policies he obtains or he negotiates
- 00:57:43there he brings it back
- 00:57:44to us and then is implemented i think
- 00:57:47there's
- 00:57:48i think there's a is there something
- 00:57:50problematic or something we're giving
- 00:57:52away with regards to that dynamic
- 00:57:54no this one person
- 00:57:57this very relatively backward flow of
- 00:57:59diplomatic policy
- 00:58:01well if you look at our constitution the
- 00:58:03president
- 00:58:04is also our principal diplomatic right
- 00:58:07in other words
- 00:58:08uh that is a constitutional provision
- 00:58:10right
- 00:58:11so you can't you can't really you can't
- 00:58:13really
- 00:58:14um uh understate so to speak the
- 00:58:17responsibility of the
- 00:58:19of the president as a person as a
- 00:58:22personality
- 00:58:24as far as foreign policy uh is actually
- 00:58:27concerned
- 00:58:29i think what is interesting about about
- 00:58:31the third administration
- 00:58:33is the extent to which he has
- 00:58:35personalized
- 00:58:37no especially the relationship with
- 00:58:39china
- 00:58:40right um so he's not just talking about
- 00:58:43philippine-china relations right he's
- 00:58:46talking about
- 00:58:47him and in china i need china right he
- 00:58:50actually mentioned that
- 00:58:51a few years back um so it's it's in a
- 00:58:55sense you know
- 00:58:55um uh uh it goes beyond the idea of his
- 00:59:00responsibilities as the chief diplomat
- 00:59:02of the philippines
- 00:59:03the whole thing is now some about him
- 00:59:06you know as as uh as the principal
- 00:59:09initiator of uh
- 00:59:11foreign policy for the philippines um
- 00:59:13but at the same time
- 00:59:15you know and i think this is where this
- 00:59:17is where uh these are these are some of
- 00:59:19the things that we might actually miss
- 00:59:20out when we talk about
- 00:59:21china for instance right um
- 00:59:25there's nothing really if you look at
- 00:59:28our relationship with china
- 00:59:30uh the relationship has
- 00:59:33always been you know actually good so to
- 00:59:37speak
- 00:59:38okay um and this is something that china
- 00:59:40finds
- 00:59:41odd so to speak uh why is it that
- 00:59:44filipinos find
- 00:59:45china uh or has a lot of suspicion
- 00:59:48with for for chinese uh intentions for
- 00:59:51instance but
- 00:59:52if you go back to uh uh i mean
- 00:59:55historically speaking if you go back to
- 00:59:57our history with china
- 00:59:58no okay like not too far let's say at
- 01:00:01the time when we
- 01:00:02established first established uh uh
- 01:00:05diplomatic relations with communist
- 01:00:07china this is during the time of marcos
- 01:00:09right yes exactly right um our
- 01:00:12relationship with china
- 01:00:13has never been intense so to speak but
- 01:00:16it has never been
- 01:00:18negative right so in other words
- 01:00:21um in fact there were um
- 01:00:24you might actually say that that move of
- 01:00:27marcos uh in the first place was
- 01:00:30was directed at the uh idea of
- 01:00:32conscience communist insurgency in the
- 01:00:34philippines the idea of trying to cut
- 01:00:35off
- 01:00:36you know uh material material support
- 01:00:39that the
- 01:00:40the people's republic of china might
- 01:00:43actually
- 01:00:44um uh provide the new people's army for
- 01:00:47instance
- 01:00:48be that as it may you know uh there
- 01:00:51hasn't really been
- 01:00:52any major uh issue as far as our
- 01:00:55relationship
- 01:00:56with chinese ash concert now of course
- 01:00:57this is before china became
- 01:00:59a regional hegemon right a powerful
- 01:01:01state the peaceful rise of china and all
- 01:01:03of that
- 01:01:03and this is before china began to be
- 01:01:06uh began to probe into
- 01:01:10its ability to actually uh
- 01:01:13make its presence felt you know uh in in
- 01:01:16well beyond the south china sea the west
- 01:01:19philippine sea
- 01:01:19right so there are those kinds of things
- 01:01:22that we actually have to understand
- 01:01:24right in other words what i'm actually
- 01:01:26trying to say is that the relationship
- 01:01:28with china that we had under the um
- 01:01:31administration is actually a deviation
- 01:01:33from the normal
- 01:01:35kind of relationship that we had
- 01:01:39you could actually make the argument
- 01:01:40that duterte is just bringing us back
- 01:01:42into what was actually the normal
- 01:01:45relationship that we had with china
- 01:01:47of course the problem there is that
- 01:01:51this goes against popular
- 01:01:54uh perceptions you know of that
- 01:01:56relationship that we have with china
- 01:01:59okay um the kinds of of perceptions that
- 01:02:02were shaped by
- 01:02:03chinese activities not in the south
- 01:02:05china sea and the west philippines
- 01:02:07for instance okay and so when you talk
- 01:02:09about the idea that we're just trying to
- 01:02:11bring the relationship back to a normal
- 01:02:14kind of
- 01:02:15uh condition right
- 01:02:18it's very difficult and the the language
- 01:02:20that we we see
- 01:02:21is of course things like the pivot to
- 01:02:23china for instance right
- 01:02:27uh and so it's it's it's
- 01:02:30not easy to actually make that kind of
- 01:02:33argument
- 01:02:34that people will understand that
- 01:02:36particular
- 01:02:37uh administrative um
- 01:02:40or this administration's attempts to
- 01:02:43actually normalize the relationship with
- 01:02:44china
- 01:02:45and what doesn't help is that um
- 01:02:49you can just oppose that no with his
- 01:02:52rhetoric
- 01:02:53not what the government actually does
- 01:02:54but he's rhetoric
- 01:02:56as far as the eu is concerned the united
- 01:02:59states in other words
- 01:03:00as far as our traditional friends are
- 01:03:02actually concerned he's very hostile in
- 01:03:04the rhetoric that he actually uses
- 01:03:06right and so you get the sense that ah
- 01:03:10he's changing
- 01:03:11you know the direction of our foreign
- 01:03:13policy okay
- 01:03:15although if you look at it objectively
- 01:03:17now to a large extent
- 01:03:19uh we're just going back to what we
- 01:03:21might say would be a normal
- 01:03:23relationship with china now of course
- 01:03:25the other thing that you have to
- 01:03:27to be very careful about is that china
- 01:03:29is no longer the china that it was
- 01:03:31before
- 01:03:32right so if we're talking about
- 01:03:34normalizing relationships
- 01:03:36right china under mao zedong no
- 01:03:39um later on is very different from the
- 01:03:44kind of china that we're actually facing
- 01:03:45now under xi jinping
- 01:03:47right so in that kind of context no um
- 01:03:50it's also very difficult to say oh we're
- 01:03:51just normalizing things
- 01:03:53right precisely because it's a different
- 01:03:55china that we're actually dealing with
- 01:03:56now
- 01:03:57right and and and dealing with that
- 01:03:59china
- 01:04:01might require us to think about well
- 01:04:03okay uh
- 01:04:04can we do it on our own right in the way
- 01:04:08that
- 01:04:09the way that you're actually talking
- 01:04:10about it earlier on
- 01:04:12that duterte actually is uh
- 01:04:16is using this as in a strategic gambit
- 01:04:19right trying to normalize relations with
- 01:04:22china but at the same time
- 01:04:23making sure that even as he says those
- 01:04:26things about the united states not
- 01:04:27that things are actually normal there
- 01:04:29okay so
- 01:04:31in other words if you are actually
- 01:04:34personalizing the way that we approach
- 01:04:36this geopolitical situation this new
- 01:04:38geopolitical situation
- 01:04:40right now the question there is um
- 01:04:43uh does it actually mean
- 01:04:47that we we change the nature
- 01:04:50of our relationship especially within
- 01:04:53within the context of the
- 01:04:54emerging international order that we
- 01:04:56have right now right
- 01:04:58uh so things like multilateral
- 01:05:00institutions and the way that we tend to
- 01:05:02ignore that
- 01:05:03withdrawing from the icc for instance
- 01:05:05right and the way that
- 01:05:06that that president duterte has
- 01:05:08threatened for instance in the past that
- 01:05:09may as well withdraw from the u.n
- 01:05:11because it hasn't been able to do
- 01:05:12anything
- 01:05:13anyway right so in other words this is
- 01:05:16the international system that we've had
- 01:05:18in the past
- 01:05:19post-cold war situation right a system
- 01:05:22that has
- 01:05:24seen to the emergence of multilateral
- 01:05:26institutions the creation of
- 01:05:27international norms
- 01:05:28no and so on and here is a president in
- 01:05:32the philippines actually saying that
- 01:05:34i'm not too happy about the way those
- 01:05:36norms are actually
- 01:05:37uh uh operating so to speak right uh and
- 01:05:41so when
- 01:05:41when you start seeing that you know and
- 01:05:43the way that we're we're trying to
- 01:05:45um to reorient so to speak
- 01:05:49the kind of foreign policy that we have
- 01:05:51under the third administration
- 01:05:52no um then the question that we have is
- 01:05:55is there
- 01:05:56some sort of coherence in the way that
- 01:05:57this uh all of these things are actually
- 01:05:58being brought about
- 01:06:00thank you which which which then leads
- 01:06:02me to my next question rahman because
- 01:06:04heroin is talking about a gambit you
- 01:06:07were talking about
- 01:06:08how duterte is playing a game or playing
- 01:06:10an international game of diplomatic game
- 01:06:13with these heads of state with these
- 01:06:15governments no
- 01:06:17assume he stays or assuming he just
- 01:06:19stays for the next three years
- 01:06:21no what would be the what would be the
- 01:06:24long term
- 01:06:25impact of this game of this highly
- 01:06:28personalized
- 01:06:29this oh my
- 01:06:34this diplomatic game no this diplomatic
- 01:06:37economic game no
- 01:06:38with these heads of state with these
- 01:06:40governments no what would happen
- 01:06:43once duterte leaves power and the new
- 01:06:45head of state
- 01:06:46would now be faced with the consequences
- 01:06:49with the realities created by this
- 01:06:52highly personalized
- 01:06:54highly diplo um i guess the popular
- 01:06:57i think it's an extension of what he's
- 01:06:59doing in a populist
- 01:07:01relationship with these states what do
- 01:07:03you think about that well
- 01:07:04there are uncertain uncertainties after
- 01:07:06duterte
- 01:07:07but we need to ask whether what what are
- 01:07:09the gains of the authority
- 01:07:11administration and what have we
- 01:07:12exchanged
- 01:07:14in terms of our foreign policies so look
- 01:07:15at china
- 01:07:17wata began we gained access to
- 01:07:20scarborough
- 01:07:21okay now we can freely move our
- 01:07:25troops to a resupply and rotation
- 01:07:28mission in
- 01:07:29our nine occupied geographic features in
- 01:07:31the west philippine sea
- 01:07:33although chinese are still around but we
- 01:07:35can
- 01:07:36still do things that we failed to do
- 01:07:39before like for example now we can now
- 01:07:42repair the runway of pakasa island and
- 01:07:44we can now have a port
- 01:07:46in pakasa island before china was
- 01:07:50apprehending our ships carrying
- 01:07:53construction materials
- 01:07:55but in terms of pagas island china is
- 01:07:58allowing passage of those of
- 01:08:02ships because of our understanding with
- 01:08:04china so that's the
- 01:08:06that's what we are gaining now but the
- 01:08:08trade-off is we need to set aside the
- 01:08:10decision
- 01:08:11of the international arbitral uh
- 01:08:14tribunal
- 01:08:14and at the same time we need to solve
- 01:08:16our problems with china bilaterally
- 01:08:19now we have now what we call the duterte
- 01:08:20doctrine now in the south china sea and
- 01:08:22that is the
- 01:08:23bilateral consultative mechanism with
- 01:08:26china on the south china sea
- 01:08:27and china is offering this kind of model
- 01:08:30now with malaysia
- 01:08:31and offering this model now with brunei
- 01:08:35and uh other clay months like vietnam
- 01:08:38also vietnam is not accepting that kind
- 01:08:40of model
- 01:08:41so that's the kind of exchange that we
- 01:08:44need to do
- 01:08:44so just to conclude this session uh if
- 01:08:47there's anything that we can
- 01:08:49gain from the discussion so far no it's
- 01:08:52that
- 01:08:52participation is key as
- 01:08:56discussions on local and international
- 01:08:59policies are concerned
- 01:09:01while there is a popular perception on
- 01:09:04issues it is imperative that we have a
- 01:09:07well nuanced as well as a well informed
- 01:09:11view and not just be driven by emotions
- 01:09:16by the cliches there might be some
- 01:09:18validity to these popular perceptions
- 01:09:20but it is
- 01:09:21it is necessary for us to critically
- 01:09:23engage them
- 01:09:24and then later on decide now whether
- 01:09:26these perceptions these issues
- 01:09:29impact our degree in our nations as a
- 01:09:32community
- 01:09:33our perspectives on security and quality
- 01:09:36of life
- 01:09:36once again thank you very much romel and
- 01:09:38herman for accommodating us for today's
- 01:09:40session
- 01:09:41thank you for watching and see you in
- 01:09:42the next session
- 01:09:51[Music]
- 01:10:07you
- human security
- national security
- poverty
- conflict
- Philippines
- Mindanao
- foreign policy
- Duterte
- China relations
- development