What are the recent market reactions to Trump's tariffs?

Asian and European markets have been declining for three consecutive days due to concerns over Trump's tariffs.

What is the EU's stance on retaliating against US tariffs?

The EU is considering various options for retaliation but is also cautious about escalating the trade war.

What is the anti-coercion instrument mentioned in the discussion?

It is a tool the EU can use to address abuses of market dominance by foreign companies, particularly targeting US tech giants.

How does the EU plan to strengthen its economic position?

The EU aims to complete its internal market and establish trade agreements with other countries to reduce dependency on the US.

What is the significance of a European payment system?

A European payment system would reduce reliance on US companies like Visa and Mastercard, enhancing economic sovereignty.

What's Europe going to do about it? EU weighs options as Trump insists on tariffs • FRANCE 24

00:44:27

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WIJl7-kwR08

概要

TLDRThe video explores the ramifications of Donald Trump's tariffs on global markets, particularly the reactions from Europe and Asia. It highlights the significant market declines and the uncertainty surrounding the future of trade relations. Experts discuss the EU's potential retaliatory measures, including the use of an anti-coercion instrument aimed at US tech companies. The conversation emphasizes the need for Europe to assert its economic independence and develop a unified payment system to reduce reliance on American financial services. The discussion also touches on the broader geopolitical implications of these trade tensions and the necessity for Europe to adapt to a changing global landscape.

収穫

📉 Markets are reacting negatively to Trump's tariffs.
🇪🇺 The EU is considering retaliatory measures against the US.
🔄 The anti-coercion instrument could target US tech giants.
💡 Europe needs to develop its own payment system.
🌍 The trade war reflects broader geopolitical shifts.

タイムライン

00:00:00 - 00:05:00
The video discusses the impact of Donald Trump's tariffs on Asian and European markets, highlighting the retaliatory measures taken by China and the cautious response from European leaders. The panelists debate whether Trump's actions are a sign of incompetence or a strategic move, emphasizing the uncertainty in the markets and the need for Europe to prepare for a prolonged trade conflict.
00:05:00 - 00:10:00
The discussion shifts to Europe's delayed response to Trump's tariffs, with panelists noting that the EU has yet to establish a unified policy. They express concerns about the unpredictability of Trump's decisions and the potential economic consequences of a full-scale trade war, while also acknowledging the need for Europe to act decisively in response to the US's aggressive trade tactics.
00:10:00 - 00:15:00
Panelists reflect on Europe's historical overdependence on the US and China for goods and services, suggesting that the current crisis may prompt a reevaluation of trade relationships. They emphasize the importance of developing a more autonomous European economy and the need for urgent action to address vulnerabilities in various sectors, including technology and defense.
00:15:00 - 00:20:00
The conversation continues with a focus on the EU's potential retaliatory measures, including the use of an anti-coercion instrument aimed at US tech companies. Panelists discuss the complexities of implementing such measures and the hesitance among EU leaders to take aggressive actions that could escalate tensions further.
00:20:00 - 00:25:00
The panelists explore the challenges of creating a unified European payment system to reduce reliance on US financial services. They highlight the need for political will and cooperation among EU member states to develop a robust alternative that can compete with American payment systems and protect European consumers' data.
00:25:00 - 00:30:00
As the discussion progresses, the panelists address the cultural influence of the US on Europe, particularly in terms of consumer behavior and media consumption. They note that the pervasive presence of American companies and culture in Europe has led to shifts in social norms, such as the introduction of tipping practices that are not traditionally European.
00:30:00 - 00:35:00
The video concludes with a call for Europe to take proactive steps to strengthen its economic independence and reduce reliance on external powers. Panelists stress the importance of long-term planning and collaboration among EU member states to build a more resilient and self-sufficient European economy.
00:35:00 - 00:44:27
Overall, the debate highlights the complexities of navigating the current trade tensions between the US and Europe, the need for strategic responses, and the importance of fostering a more integrated and autonomous European market.

ビデオQ&A

What are the recent market reactions to Trump's tariffs?
Asian and European markets have been declining for three consecutive days due to concerns over Trump's tariffs.
What is the EU's stance on retaliating against US tariffs?
The EU is considering various options for retaliation but is also cautious about escalating the trade war.
What is the anti-coercion instrument mentioned in the discussion?
It is a tool the EU can use to address abuses of market dominance by foreign companies, particularly targeting US tech giants.
How does the EU plan to strengthen its economic position?
The EU aims to complete its internal market and establish trade agreements with other countries to reduce dependency on the US.
What is the significance of a European payment system?
A European payment system would reduce reliance on US companies like Visa and Mastercard, enhancing economic sovereignty.

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00:00:02
retaliate now or wait for the chips to
00:00:06
fall Fall they have this Monday Asian
00:00:09
and European markets nosediving for a
00:00:11
third straight day as Donald Trump
00:00:13
doubles down on tariffs weighing further
00:00:16
on investors minds Uh China the first to
00:00:19
pull the trigger on reciprocal tariffs
00:00:22
That's uh in return uh triggered a tit
00:00:27
for tat from the the US president
00:00:29
himself Now keeping their powder dry so
00:00:32
far the Europeans best to wait and let
00:00:35
the markets temper uh Trump's zeal for
00:00:38
trade barriers or pardon the pun is it
00:00:41
because retribution requires nerves of
00:00:44
steel Last week France and Germany
00:00:47
called on the EU to hit the US where it
00:00:49
hurts its tech sector But just as the
00:00:51
COVID pandemic made Europe realize how
00:00:53
overdependent it is on Chinese
00:00:55
manufactured goods and medicines is the
00:00:58
old continent just now waking up to the
00:01:00
reality that in an increasingly
00:01:03
demonetized world the US controls both
00:01:06
the software and the financing of our
00:01:08
daily transactions Today in the France
00:01:10
24 debate we're asking what Europe's
00:01:13
going to do about those tariffs And
00:01:16
joining us from Europe's capital is
00:01:18
France 24 Brussels correspondent Dave
00:01:20
Keading Good to see you Dave
00:01:24
Good evening France Uh from the Belgian
00:01:26
city of Gent former Dutch member of the
00:01:28
European Parliament Sophie Infeld Thanks
00:01:30
for joining us
00:01:33
Good evening Uh from Abu Dhabi economist
00:01:37
Alexandra Kateb founder of
00:01:41
multipolarity.ai Thank you for joining
00:01:43
us
00:01:45
Good evening Fossa Thank you for
00:01:47
inviting me And Jacob Hler is the global
00:01:50
head of consulting at accounting
00:01:51
auditing and consulting firm Forvis
00:01:53
Mazal Thank you for joining us Good
00:01:55
evening Uh you can listen like and
00:01:57
subscribe to the France 24 debate
00:01:59
wherever podcasts are streamed There was
00:02:01
this 10-minute period earlier in the day
00:02:03
where Wall Street briefly returned to
00:02:05
positive territory but uh that proved
00:02:09
short-lived after uh a rumor of a
00:02:13
moratorum on those tariffs proved
00:02:15
unfounded Tokyo and Shanghai deep in the
00:02:18
red Hong Kong's hang index closing down
00:02:21
over 13% its biggest one-day drop since
00:02:25
1997 Europe's main markets down between
00:02:29
four and 5%
00:02:34
There is only one thing left to do now
00:02:36
and that is to take relatively quick
00:02:38
counter measures We need to admit that
00:02:39
the US president is incompetent
00:02:42
The US president is totally incompetent
00:02:45
So a bit of financial analysis and
00:02:47
psychological profiling Uh is he totally
00:02:50
incompetent Jakob Hler or or is there a
00:02:52
strategy to all this Is this just a big
00:02:54
bargain I think it's very hard to tell
00:02:58
at this moment I think what is very
00:03:01
clear is that he decides and it's not
00:03:05
the secretary of the treasury who has
00:03:07
been rumored to actually
00:03:10
even possibly going leaving
00:03:14
So I'm not sure whether the sort of
00:03:18
trying to read into whether or not I
00:03:20
think the real question is is this there
00:03:22
to stay or not you know and we can
00:03:25
speculate about motives and you know
00:03:27
ration etc all we want the question is
00:03:30
is it going to stay and from what it
00:03:34
looks a it's going to stay for a
00:03:37
reasonable amount of time and even if it
00:03:39
were to go away today the uncertainty
00:03:44
that is now priced in expectations of
00:03:46
all market participants has changed the
00:03:49
world even if it were called off today
00:03:53
and that's I think what Europe and what
00:03:55
the world needs to prepare for Sophie
00:03:58
Infeld uh wasn't this
00:04:00
uncertainty already heartbake in the
00:04:03
minds of Europeans after all it's Donald
00:04:05
Trump's second time as US president
00:04:11
well I get the feeling that they've been
00:04:14
waking up only in recent weeks really
00:04:17
waking up because there have I don't
00:04:19
know how many wakeup calls there have
00:04:20
been Um today the the the the commission
00:04:24
and the member state said that there
00:04:26
will be a very mitigated response uh
00:04:29
from the European Union but they're
00:04:30
keeping all options on the table Uh and
00:04:33
I hope they're serious about that
00:04:34
because as the previous speaker just
00:04:36
said Trump is so unpredictable
00:04:40
uh and of course there is on the one
00:04:42
hand there's and this is the dilemma
00:04:44
there's the economic logic uh and a a a
00:04:47
fullscale trade war is going to hurt
00:04:50
everybody a lot on the other hand
00:04:53
there's also the political and the
00:04:55
psychological aspect I mean if you give
00:04:57
into this kind of extortion you know
00:04:59
that's the the the moral hazard um so
00:05:03
Europe is now you know we're paying a
00:05:05
price not just for Trump's incompetence
00:05:08
or rather insanity I I think uh but
00:05:10
we're also paying a very high price for
00:05:14
Europe's inertia and um its state of
00:05:17
denial for many many years and now what
00:05:21
I can hope for is that we have seen that
00:05:24
when it came to defense in the past
00:05:27
months or months and a half um uh the
00:05:30
sense of urgency has grown very rapidly
00:05:33
and uh they're beginning to act uh and
00:05:36
and that you know is bearing fruit or I
00:05:38
think it it will um and I think we will
00:05:42
have to do the same the same kind of
00:05:44
d-risking in many other areas many other
00:05:47
areas uh but it will have to be done and
00:05:50
there is not going to be a painless way
00:05:52
out of this okay so let's go over the
00:05:54
timeline Sophie it was 5 days ago last
00:05:57
Wednesday when uh Donald Trump came out
00:06:00
with that chart announcing the tariffs
00:06:02
for all the different countries the U
00:06:04
the European Union so far yet to uh uh
00:06:10
to actually spell out its common policy
00:06:12
There was a huddle today in Luxembourg
00:06:15
of of EU trade ministers We heard the uh
00:06:18
European Commission president saying
00:06:21
that we offered zero for zero tariffs
00:06:23
for industrial goods So sort of trying
00:06:26
to offer up carrots and sticks She got
00:06:28
the messaging right Ursula Vanderline in
00:06:31
this period where Europe is yet to pull
00:06:34
the trigger
00:06:38
That's difficult to say Yeah because we
00:06:40
we we don't know if this is the right
00:06:42
response because uh you know within five
00:06:45
minutes then Donald Trump may change his
00:06:48
mind and then a different response may
00:06:50
be required We don't know Uh and that is
00:06:52
the biggest problem I think the the the
00:06:55
uh insecurity We we don't know what's
00:06:58
going to happen You don't know what to
00:06:59
prepare for Um so we'll see I suppose
00:07:02
the the the mitigated response uh comes
00:07:06
from the economic logic saying you know
00:07:08
if we're we we don't want to escalate
00:07:10
further Uh but it's a very very fine
00:07:13
line they're walking and and you know
00:07:15
we're now talking about first we were
00:07:17
talking about defense now we're talking
00:07:19
about trade tariffs and and trade flows
00:07:21
We haven't even started to talk about uh
00:07:25
uh let's say security in the sense of
00:07:28
police and justice and intelligence
00:07:30
cooperation We haven't even talked about
00:07:32
the the digital um you know the fact
00:07:35
that we are so intertwined We are so
00:07:38
dependent on the US for everything
00:07:40
digital We haven't talked about data
00:07:42
flow So I mean we're only seeing the
00:07:45
beginning of this So I hope that the the
00:07:48
the the government leaders and the
00:07:50
European Commission fully understands
00:07:52
the scale of the threat All right And
00:07:55
even if it's all just a bargaining
00:07:57
strategy even if Donald Trump does bend
00:08:00
and reverse course it's the out ofthe-
00:08:03
blue bluntness of the president of the
00:08:04
United States as YaKob was saying at the
00:08:06
outset targeting nations big and small
00:08:09
last Wednesday Uh that's shocked many on
00:08:11
this side of the Atlantic The European
00:08:14
Union already felt the shock during
00:08:16
Trump's first presidency Uh
00:08:18
representatives insisting they have the
00:08:20
means to retaliate here in Europe this
00:08:22
at the meeting of EU trade ministers in
00:08:25
Luxembourg
00:08:28
I think that we must not exclude any
00:08:30
options on good on services whatever the
00:08:33
approach and open the European toolbox
00:08:35
which is very comprehensive and can also
00:08:38
be extremely aggressive I am thinking of
00:08:41
course of the anti-corion instrument
00:08:44
All right So just Alexandra Katab
00:08:47
explain for us please what is an
00:08:49
anti-coercion instrument just so our
00:08:51
viewers understand
00:08:56
uh I'm not a lawyer uh I'm not
00:09:00
specialist of uh this kind of instrument
00:09:04
but uh I guess uh uh it is uh the kind
00:09:08
of tool that the commission has at his
00:09:11
disposal when it judges that uh one of
00:09:15
its partners exercises
00:09:18
uh an abuse of dominant position over a
00:09:21
market Uh and then if this is the case
00:09:25
uh it can force uh those players um
00:09:30
companies for example uh to uh to to pay
00:09:35
taxes uh or to uh uh divest from from
00:09:40
the market or whatever other reason that
00:09:43
could penalize their activity And um
00:09:46
obviously the target here um are the the
00:09:51
digital uh groups the uh the the big
00:09:55
tech US companies uh like Microsoft
00:10:00
Amazon
00:10:01
um Apple and the new darlings of AI such
00:10:07
as Open AI Antropic and and other
00:10:12
related companies So basically uh it
00:10:15
would inflict some pain uh on these
00:10:18
companies that are dominant in the
00:10:20
services and especially in high-tech
00:10:22
services Dave Keading that that uh
00:10:25
anti-coercion instrument It's a bit of a
00:10:27
mouthful to say Uh has it ever been used
00:10:29
before
00:10:33
It's never been used before And actually
00:10:35
this is one of the only instances for
00:10:38
which the EU got prepared after Donald
00:10:40
Trump's first term This instrument was
00:10:42
only adopted in 2021 and the precise
00:10:45
reason it was adopted was because of
00:10:47
what Donald Trump had done during the
00:10:49
first term and it was in preparation in
00:10:51
case he ever came back It now looks
00:10:54
enormously foresighted The issue is it's
00:10:57
never been used and it's very
00:10:58
complicated to use uh because it's it's
00:11:01
designed in a very different way than
00:11:03
let's say the normal retaliatory tariffs
00:11:06
So the normal retaliatory tariffs we've
00:11:08
already had a package put forward by the
00:11:10
commission in response to Trump's global
00:11:12
tariffs on steel and aluminium and also
00:11:15
on automobiles There's a certain
00:11:17
procedure that can be done with that
00:11:19
It's been done before The commission did
00:11:20
it quite a lot during Trump's first term
00:11:23
The issue is with services it's a lot
00:11:25
more complicated And that's why the
00:11:26
thinking is that if they're going to
00:11:28
tariff services they need to use this
00:11:30
anti-coercion instrument You know Trump
00:11:32
always talks about the trade deficit
00:11:34
that the US has with the EU Uh that the
00:11:37
EU exports many goods to the US but they
00:11:41
don't import many goods from the US to
00:11:43
Europe For services it's the exact
00:11:46
opposite Europe exports almost no
00:11:48
services to the US Europe is pretty much
00:11:51
dependent on services that come from the
00:11:53
United States By services we mean things
00:11:55
that you can't hold in your hands
00:11:57
something as daily as video streaming uh
00:12:00
as financial transactions as social
00:12:02
media these tech giants uh that
00:12:05
obviously uh the US has a big lead on to
00:12:08
tax those to tariff those would be a
00:12:11
really really big step it could majorly
00:12:13
hurt US banks US big tech companies the
00:12:16
question is whether they want to use
00:12:18
that so-called nuclear option and if
00:12:19
they do are they legally covered to do
00:12:22
it uh another reason to use the
00:12:24
anti-coercion instrument is as I
00:12:26
understand it it would not need
00:12:28
unonymity in the council to be used and
00:12:30
therefore someone like Victor Orban or
00:12:32
maybe Italy's Georgia Maloney cannot
00:12:34
veto it um because it wouldn't be
00:12:36
considered attacks It would be
00:12:38
considered a retaliation against a
00:12:41
threat from another country Um but I I'm
00:12:44
still hearing a lot of hesitance about
00:12:46
using that instrument I don't think
00:12:48
we're going to get any announcement
00:12:50
about using the anti-coercion instrument
00:12:52
in the next two weeks at least All right
00:12:54
Jakob you heard Alexander KB talk about
00:12:57
the targeting of big tech What do you
00:12:59
see as the most effective instrument
00:13:01
that the EU has as I think the question
00:13:04
is what what effectiveness are we
00:13:06
measuring because the the the reality is
00:13:10
today that when you look at the four
00:13:13
major tech giants we can't live without
00:13:16
them So the same effect if we now
00:13:19
massively tax them that would
00:13:22
dramatically increase cost to operate
00:13:24
for many companies because you can't
00:13:26
just switch If you are on Microsoft you
00:13:29
can't just say like oh I'm not going to
00:13:30
buy a Mercedes I'm just going to buy a
00:13:36
Michiganbuiltmobile Well you can't
00:13:38
because you can't switch And so I think
00:13:41
from what I understand the European
00:13:43
Union is very hesitant to go
00:13:47
aggressively on any services where there
00:13:50
are no alternative and I'm and secondly
00:13:54
I think the question is effective
00:13:56
retaliation per se may not be a good
00:14:00
idea just for the sake of it The
00:14:02
question is how does it how does it
00:14:04
inscribe itself in a logic that and I
00:14:07
think takes into account the fact that
00:14:09
we have a huge
00:14:12
regionalization deglobalization and for
00:14:15
the region what can Europe do what must
00:14:17
it do to pursue its own interests and I
00:14:20
think that's the lens through which we
00:14:21
should look for everything so what's
00:14:24
what would be the effective so the I
00:14:26
think the effective thing is I think the
00:14:28
effect thing is around more around the
00:14:30
financial system I think it's about
00:14:32
stronger financial integration which now
00:14:34
we re in the same way nobody thought we
00:14:36
could do joint defense in the same way
00:14:39
nobody thought even a month ago Europe
00:14:41
would ever have an integrated financial
00:14:43
market I think that's one of the things
00:14:45
bringing in the digital digital euro
00:14:48
those are the kinds of measures we need
00:14:49
to take now urgently and and I think not
00:14:53
get deviated in the tit for tat and lose
00:14:56
out the bigger picture which is we need
00:14:58
to protect and you know Europe's
00:15:01
economic livelihood Alexandra KB is this
00:15:04
all just
00:15:06
about show and pageantry and so you need
00:15:09
to make send some kind of very strong
00:15:11
signal or is is there an effective way
00:15:15
to hit back at Donald Trump's tariffs
00:15:21
I don't think uh there is an effective
00:15:24
way of hitting back um in the sense that
00:15:27
uh every retaliation measure that uh
00:15:31
Europe would take would bring its own uh
00:15:35
backlash and escalation So uh uh at the
00:15:39
end of the day there is a need to uh to
00:15:42
man to escape this kind of escalation
00:15:46
and to deescalate and for
00:15:51
that all right seem to have lost the
00:15:54
signal there with that Alexandra Kate
00:15:55
Apologies for that We'll reconnect as
00:15:58
quickly as possible Uh Sophie Infeld
00:16:01
your your thoughts on on what's the most
00:16:03
effective way
00:16:07
Well in terms of retaliation as I said
00:16:09
earlier uh of course you try to uh to
00:16:13
deescalate as much as possible At the
00:16:15
same time you cannot reward Donald Trump
00:16:18
and his government and the Republican
00:16:20
party let's not forget uh for this
00:16:23
behavior Um what Europe can do is and it
00:16:27
seems to be doing so is very very
00:16:29
quickly um conclude trade agreements
00:16:33
with other countries and other blocks
00:16:35
you know step up the pace Um what we
00:16:38
should also do is look at the internal
00:16:40
markets which is far from from complete
00:16:44
and actually the gains we can have from
00:16:47
uh rapidly completing the internal
00:16:49
market and breaking down national
00:16:51
barriers you know completely eclipse the
00:16:54
damage that Donald Trump can do with his
00:16:56
trade tariffs because the the trade
00:16:58
inside the European Union uh will also
00:17:01
bring us enormous benefits and there the
00:17:04
the national government leaders and the
00:17:06
commission have been basically um you
00:17:09
know dragging their feet for the last 20
00:17:11
years or so But there we can there we
00:17:13
can make progress and then again we
00:17:17
don't know because even let's say that
00:17:18
the commission were to and and the
00:17:20
member states were to come out with a a
00:17:22
very strong statement today saying you
00:17:24
know massive retal retaliatory measures
00:17:28
and then Donald Trump says oh but
00:17:30
actually um you know I'm I'm going to
00:17:32
suspend the measure for the next 90 days
00:17:34
I mean you don't know So uh taking it
00:17:37
step by step but also making it clear uh
00:17:40
that we are ready to to take measures as
00:17:43
to the the tech giants Yes I think our
00:17:46
dependence on the tech giants in many
00:17:48
sectors whether it's uh communications
00:17:50
or payments financial services and many
00:17:54
other things that that has to be
00:17:56
addressed as quickly as possible Uh of
00:17:59
course look they're not going to to pull
00:18:02
out uh you know from one day to the next
00:18:04
because they also need us but clearly uh
00:18:07
this dependence is is one of the biggest
00:18:10
threats that we need to fix ASAP
00:18:13
Alexander KB you're back Thanks for
00:18:15
Sorry about the the technical hitches
00:18:16
there Um the the point there just made
00:18:19
by Sophie Infeld was it was last week we
00:18:21
heard um the president of the uh
00:18:24
European Central Bank say the same thing
00:18:26
there's too many uh tariffs and taxes
00:18:29
between EU member states Would that be
00:18:32
the effective response
00:18:37
Well uh anything that uh can help render
00:18:41
the European economy more competitive is
00:18:44
welcome but I think uh it misses the the
00:18:47
big picture that uh um actually this
00:18:50
trade war is is just the symptom of a
00:18:53
massive systemic geopolitical and
00:18:57
geoeconomic shift at at the glo at the
00:19:00
global level Basically I think there are
00:19:03
only two radical choices for uh Europe
00:19:08
One choice is to become a kind of vessel
00:19:12
of the United States in an even stronger
00:19:16
uh way than it is today and let the
00:19:20
political power basically in the hand of
00:19:23
Washington as the military power is now
00:19:26
The other alternative is to assert uh
00:19:30
itself in a multi-polar uh world as a
00:19:34
completely um you know independent
00:19:37
autonomous
00:19:39
uh power But for that it will require a
00:19:42
lot of changes political changes
00:19:45
um and also a reorientation of trade
00:19:48
investment to other areas of the world
00:19:51
especially the Middle East North Africa
00:19:54
Subsaran Africa South Asia for example
00:19:58
India with which there is a lot of
00:20:00
potential to develop as well as Russia
00:20:03
Russia is Europe's natural partner and
00:20:06
uh I think it's time to to get back to
00:20:10
to to try to find out this
00:20:12
complimentarities with with Russia that
00:20:15
are actually inescapable because of
00:20:17
geography Imagine if tomorrow Donald
00:20:20
Trump decides to suspend all energy
00:20:24
exports to Europe all LG export to
00:20:26
Europe What happens Europe uh the
00:20:29
European economy is is dead basically So
00:20:32
um I think the realistic alternative is
00:20:35
to get back uh to Russia and to try to
00:20:38
to settle the war in Ukraine obviously
00:20:41
but then to establish some partnership
00:20:44
with Russia that should have been
00:20:45
established long ago We're hearing Yakob
00:20:48
Hler inside of the chancellor and
00:20:50
waitings party the Sidu some leaders who
00:20:53
are making that same point that you all
00:20:56
right they invaded Ukraine but we have
00:20:58
to do business with Russia because
00:20:59
that's real politique I think we're that
00:21:03
that's a whole different debate I think
00:21:05
the question about how we deal with
00:21:07
Russia and actually also with China and
00:21:09
its role in the world and the fact of I
00:21:12
think is a diff that's a different
00:21:14
debate I think and and I wouldn't
00:21:16
formulate the alternative as stark and
00:21:20
particularly if you say you don't want
00:21:22
to be or continue to be what the
00:21:25
colleague calls a vassel of the United
00:21:27
States But I think that the key question
00:21:29
is yes we want to be more autonomous We
00:21:32
must be more autonomous because the
00:21:33
world is changing The world is regional
00:21:36
regionalizing and deglobalizing So new
00:21:39
supply chains need to be invented New
00:21:42
trading partners and we need to lower
00:21:44
our trade barriers Let's not forget
00:21:46
Canada had higher trade barriers between
00:21:49
its provinces than with the US That was
00:21:51
one of the things why they were so
00:21:53
vulnerable to the first row of you know
00:21:56
the the steel and other tariffs And I
00:21:59
think the European Union must find its
00:22:02
own playing field for this and it must
00:22:05
try and define the playing field because
00:22:07
if you argue the playing field is more
00:22:09
multilateral more rules-based then well
00:22:12
you have to drink your own Kool-Aid
00:22:14
otherwise you'll just be trying to play
00:22:16
small hegeimon with whatever power you
00:22:19
have and it's not going to work And I
00:22:20
agree that countries like India are
00:22:23
obviously having a lot of potential But
00:22:24
let's not forget just a few months ago
00:22:27
India was the bad quote unquote student
00:22:30
of the WT to of the World Trade
00:22:32
Organization because it was refusing to
00:22:35
play along with many of these these the
00:22:38
these rules And there are even today in
00:22:40
the WTO order of things there are many
00:22:44
many many country exemptions and we need
00:22:47
to face that reality and then have a
00:22:50
sort of a a clever reasonable and calm
00:22:53
strategy but it's not going to happen
00:22:55
overnight and we need to do we need to
00:22:57
protect our ability to continue to
00:23:00
function economically on our way to
00:23:03
there and that's probably also
00:23:05
politically I think the message that we
00:23:07
need to give to citizens If we're now
00:23:09
just back retaliating and it's going to
00:23:12
very shortterm satisfy our egos but it's
00:23:15
not going to work we we will be in deep
00:23:18
trouble because then these voices that
00:23:21
we may jeopardize our security in
00:23:24
exchange
00:23:25
for economic short-term benefits these
00:23:28
calls will then become ever more louder
00:23:31
and that's not something we should be
00:23:33
tampering with Yeah France's EU
00:23:35
commissioner in charge of uh industrial
00:23:37
strategy Stfan Sou uh warning on
00:23:40
breakfast radio this Monday that uh
00:23:42
barring US companies from EU public bids
00:23:44
could be uh one of the uh things on the
00:23:47
table In the same breath though he
00:23:49
hinted that bourbon could soon be
00:23:50
dropped from a list of US imports hit
00:23:52
with additional tariffs Uh that's not
00:23:54
bourbon you're seeing Those are uh
00:23:56
grapes from the Cognac region That's
00:23:58
because uh uh the French makers of
00:24:02
cognac Dave Keading uh stand to lose a
00:24:06
lot in this trade war The French don't
00:24:08
drink much cognac anymore 98% of it is
00:24:11
exported either to China or to the
00:24:13
United States How's that goes down in
00:24:16
Brussels when you hear the vice
00:24:18
president of the European Commission
00:24:19
who's from France saying "Oh there might
00:24:21
be a carveout for bourbon."
00:24:26
I think it was not appreciated when he
00:24:28
said that for sure I mean what we've had
00:24:30
is the national governments going to the
00:24:33
European Commission over the past uh
00:24:36
week hat in hand saying this is what we
00:24:39
want excluded from this list So the the
00:24:41
list of products that the commission is
00:24:43
ready to tariff came out last uh two
00:24:46
months ago now at right after Trump's
00:24:48
initial uh steel and aluminium tariffs
00:24:51
and countries have been consulting on it
00:24:53
and each government is coming and saying
00:24:55
please take this off Italy is coming
00:24:57
saying no the olive oil take it off
00:24:59
France is saying take the bourbon off If
00:25:01
the commission list listened to each one
00:25:03
of those national treaties then we'd
00:25:06
have no list left Right So the the the
00:25:08
behavior of the national governments
00:25:10
over the past two weeks you know they're
00:25:11
saying publicly we need to stay united
00:25:14
and that's how we uh combat this but
00:25:16
their behavior has been anything but
00:25:18
behind the scenes because it's the same
00:25:19
old story Uh they're looking out for
00:25:21
their own national interests uh first
00:25:24
and that's what they've been lobbying
00:25:25
for Now Stefan Sane is not supposed to
00:25:27
be representing France He is not a
00:25:30
representative of the French government
00:25:31
when he entered the European Commission
00:25:33
he's supposed to leave his nationality
00:25:35
and his political affiliation at the
00:25:37
door Uh many people would say that this
00:25:39
intervention was not abiding by that
00:25:42
code I will say he is not one of the
00:25:44
more influential commissioners in the
00:25:47
commission So it's not even clear what
00:25:48
on what authority uh or what insight he
00:25:51
might have been saying that But at the
00:25:53
end of the day uh this is this is what's
00:25:56
happening Different countries are asking
00:25:58
for different products to be excluded
00:26:00
Sophie Infeld should we all be drinking
00:26:02
more cognac as a patriotic duty
00:26:07
Well I'd actually go for the bubbles we
00:26:09
saw earlier in the images but
00:26:12
um uh no but I I I think uh they've hit
00:26:17
the nail on the head The problem is and
00:26:19
has been for decades the attitude of of
00:26:22
national governments and the fact that
00:26:24
the European Union despite the fact that
00:26:26
you know lots of people are always
00:26:28
talking about this this this mythical uh
00:26:32
uh uh European superstate which is
00:26:35
terrible which is taking over power
00:26:37
Actually the opposite is true we have
00:26:39
seen more and more power going to the
00:26:41
the national capitals to the government
00:26:43
leaders um and and not just in terms of
00:26:47
decision making or getting uh all the
00:26:49
exceptions that Dave was referring to
00:26:51
but also in terms of the enforcement of
00:26:54
EU law which has now become a kind of uh
00:26:57
uh currency political currency and uh
00:27:00
for example you know we're not going to
00:27:02
I don't know enforce laws on uh uh media
00:27:06
freedom uh uh in Italy even If if the
00:27:09
government is is cracking down on
00:27:10
journalists because we need the support
00:27:12
of Mrs Maloney a European Union in this
00:27:16
in intergovernmental setting cannot go
00:27:19
forward We need to talk about how we
00:27:21
have organized the governments of the
00:27:23
European Union And I know that's not
00:27:24
popular but how we organize our
00:27:27
democracy how we organize the democratic
00:27:31
resilience how we organize our ability
00:27:33
to respond to these shock waves uh in
00:27:36
the world is crucial And the funny thing
00:27:39
is that we're talking the whole time
00:27:41
about how American democracy is
00:27:43
organized how American rule of law is
00:27:46
organized but then we refuse to talk
00:27:48
about ourselves and we have to recognize
00:27:50
that we cannot go forward uh like this
00:27:53
And now we will have to improvise We
00:27:55
will have to to to to fix the plane
00:27:58
mid-flight Uh but we'll have to start
00:28:00
thinking about a new system because uh
00:28:04
it's true that Alexander just now you
00:28:06
know put it a bit black and white being
00:28:09
either a vessel of the US uh uh or a
00:28:13
kind of superpower But uh what is true
00:28:16
is that the world is changing you know
00:28:21
dramatically and we cannot continue to
00:28:24
pretend that we can we can run Europe
00:28:27
with the system that we have designed 70
00:28:30
years ago All right And uh you you
00:28:32
mentioned uh Dave Keading here present
00:28:34
uh who in his Substack column sounded
00:28:37
the alarm over the way uh uh we live in
00:28:41
Europe nowadays how for instance we pay
00:28:44
for Belgian beer at happy hour with our
00:28:46
phones and the chances are the United
00:28:49
States or China's in on the act Uh you
00:28:53
Dave in that column showed a clip uh
00:28:57
from last Friday on Irish radio The
00:28:59
European Central Bank president calling
00:29:01
for Europe to take control of its
00:29:03
digital payment destiny Let's listen
00:29:07
Whether whether you use a card Yeah uh
00:29:10
or whether you use a phone typically it
00:29:12
goes through Visa Mastercard PayPal
00:29:14
Alipay Where are all those car coming
00:29:17
from Well either the US or China and the
00:29:20
whole sort of infrastructure mechanism
00:29:23
that allows for the payment credit and
00:29:25
debit is not a European concerned about
00:29:28
this I didn't realize this because it
00:29:29
means that every time I use my credit
00:29:31
card or use my phone that information
00:29:33
about me is leaving the European Union
00:29:35
and going to the United States I thought
00:29:36
that was not permitted And I'm sure they
00:29:38
do that you know in in compliance with
00:29:39
European regulations But yes that is
00:29:42
that is the point So Dave Keading uh
00:29:45
Christina makes it sound as though that
00:29:47
can be changed quickly
00:29:52
So interestingly it actually could Uh
00:29:55
you know I think Europeans don't really
00:29:56
think about the fact that they are using
00:29:58
American technology every time they make
00:30:00
an online payment I think these these
00:30:03
companies Visa Mastercard PayPal they
00:30:05
start to be presented to us as kind of
00:30:07
global companies that don't have a a
00:30:09
nationality or a home but they do They
00:30:11
are American companies And right now we
00:30:13
don't have any alternative We have some
00:30:15
national payment systems but those
00:30:18
national payment systems uh for instance
00:30:20
we have Ponic here in Belgium can't be
00:30:23
used outside Belgium If I order
00:30:24
something from a Dutch website I can't
00:30:27
use that to pay I have to use an
00:30:29
American uh provider Uh now the the
00:30:32
after I published this this morning
00:30:34
actually I was inundated by people uh
00:30:36
who have been working on this in the
00:30:38
over the past 10 years contacting me in
00:30:40
frustration about just how hamstrung the
00:30:42
efforts to develop a single European
00:30:45
payments initiative have been And the
00:30:48
general consensus I've been hearing is
00:30:50
yes the banks have been a bit lazy here
00:30:53
and and nobody really the thinking was
00:30:56
well Visa Mastercard works fine so let's
00:30:58
just stick with that that no one was
00:30:59
thinking that you know an America a
00:31:01
company could be a risk simply because
00:31:03
it was American Uh but actually it was
00:31:06
the lack of political will that if the
00:31:08
27 EU member states came together and
00:31:10
said right we're doing this right now it
00:31:12
could be done tomorrow The issue is the
00:31:14
national governments have not made
00:31:16
almost any effort to try to develop one
00:31:19
single European payment system And as
00:31:21
Sophie just said there now we have to do
00:31:24
it mid-flight Uh because uh the risk
00:31:27
that uh Christine Lagard was speaking of
00:31:29
there is quite real and I think it's a
00:31:31
risk that most people even though
00:31:33
they're they're using these payment
00:31:35
systems every day haven't really thought
00:31:37
much about Jakob Hler have you thought
00:31:39
about it Yes it's one of the topics that
00:31:42
in one of my previous lives I was very
00:31:45
interested in Um and I I think it's that
00:31:48
the lack of payment European payment
00:31:51
infrastructure but also of and it goes
00:31:54
back to financial integration because if
00:31:57
you say you have a digital euro it means
00:31:59
the banking markets and the financial
00:32:01
markets need to be integrated because t
00:32:04
attached to these files are and to these
00:32:07
transfers are credit decisions money
00:32:11
logic how long can you keep this payment
00:32:14
what and so it was much easier for pan
00:32:19
European or actually international
00:32:21
global companies to adopt a single
00:32:23
system and just through their individual
00:32:26
market orders impose it on these
00:32:28
countries and their customers who
00:32:29
willingly accept it because it is more
00:32:31
convenient than it has been to align
00:32:34
every country with each other but there
00:32:36
have been previous example I mean let's
00:32:38
not forget the swift system which is the
00:32:40
global interbank or one of the global
00:32:43
interbank payment system is actually
00:32:44
housed in Belgium
00:32:46
if I remember correctly and and I think
00:32:49
what we need to do and that's where I I
00:32:51
I I'm not sure that at this moment in
00:32:55
mid-flight we cannot suddenly create I
00:32:57
think a federal European Union I think
00:33:00
the political risk if we now say Europe
00:33:04
is this global thing or nothing It is
00:33:07
this European government Well hang on
00:33:10
with the payment systems Does it have to
00:33:11
be all or nothing I mean you heard Dave
00:33:13
say those experts telling David no it
00:33:15
doesn't because and I think that's
00:33:17
exactly I think rather than talk about
00:33:19
governance which would mean treaty
00:33:21
change I think there are tons of things
00:33:23
we can do without treaty change that
00:33:25
strengthen things that we have had the
00:33:28
example of defense everyone said if we
00:33:30
wanted to have joint defense we need
00:33:32
treaty change everyone said if we need
00:33:35
more investment in infrastructure we
00:33:37
need treaty change and we had euro bonds
00:33:41
EU bond phones Everyone said it needs
00:33:43
treaty change So the European Union is
00:33:45
actually quite creative when it is
00:33:47
standing with the back to the wall and
00:33:49
it generally acknowledges that it is to
00:33:52
come up with some pragmatic solutions
00:33:54
and inflight at this moment I don't see
00:33:57
others We can in midterm prepare for a
00:34:01
stronger political integration that
00:34:02
follows stronger economic integration
00:34:05
But political integration that precedes
00:34:08
more economic integration at this moment
00:34:10
I I'm not sure it would work and it
00:34:13
would all nationalists in each member
00:34:15
country give a big incentive to become
00:34:17
anti-European and then we destroy the
00:34:20
notion of the actually this defense
00:34:23
initiative of our security that
00:34:26
is rebalancing more as a collective of
00:34:29
nation state at this very moment Whether
00:34:32
we like it or not that's a whole
00:34:33
different that's a whole different
00:34:35
question Sophie Infeld
00:34:38
I I'm sorry I very much disagree with
00:34:41
that And the point the point is also
00:34:43
I've been doing European politics for 30
00:34:45
years and I've been hearing this for 30
00:34:47
years and this is where it brought us
00:34:50
And when you talk about defense I think
00:34:51
that's a very good example because you
00:34:53
know a lot of people say "Oh look Europe
00:34:56
is acting because it's with its back
00:34:58
against the wall." But you know whenever
00:34:59
there's a crisis Europe is acting But
00:35:01
let's look closely at what has been
00:35:04
decided here There is not a big uh uh
00:35:07
European fund of 800 billion euro for a
00:35:10
European defense union What they did is
00:35:14
raising the debt levels for national
00:35:16
armies who will continue to buy American
00:35:19
equipment So and and the equipment they
00:35:22
buy is not for the next two or three
00:35:24
years It's an investment for decades So
00:35:27
yeah there is just no will uh among the
00:35:30
government leaders to create a Europe
00:35:33
that is able to act I also disagree with
00:35:36
you that the only thing we can do is
00:35:39
treaty change because there is a lot we
00:35:41
and we need treaty change We do But
00:35:43
there is a lot we can do without it We
00:35:45
could actually start by applying the
00:35:47
treaties Uh because if you look at the
00:35:50
government leaders in the European
00:35:51
Council of Government Leaders they have
00:35:54
been engaging in in a complete power
00:35:57
grab uh taking powers from the two
00:36:01
legislator taking powers from the
00:36:02
European Commission Uh and actually as I
00:36:05
said earlier um
00:36:07
um you know they they've they've they've
00:36:10
paralyzed the commission when it comes
00:36:12
to enforcement uh they could create they
00:36:16
could uh eliminate national barriers in
00:36:19
the internal market You don't need
00:36:20
treaty change for that They can take
00:36:23
more steps in the area of defense
00:36:25
without treaty change and they should do
00:36:27
so Yes I agree with that But that is not
00:36:30
a European government that is improving
00:36:34
with existing instruments and creative
00:36:38
making the functioning and the way
00:36:40
things function which is not the same
00:36:42
You could argue the same thing about
00:36:44
defense So you have national armies but
00:36:47
how long would it take Today we don't
00:36:50
even have effective national armies in
00:36:52
Europe outside of the UK France and
00:36:54
Poland and then some smaller countries
00:36:56
Yes but the idea of creating a
00:36:58
collective European defense force right
00:37:01
now is a project for in 2030 years Yes
00:37:04
we should launch it but I don't I don't
00:37:06
think it's realistic But then maybe I'm
00:37:08
too pessimistic
00:37:12
Can I respond to that Sure Sophia Yeah
00:37:16
No the the the the point is no we're not
00:37:19
going to create a European army by next
00:37:21
week But if you know what is now being
00:37:24
presented as oh look you know Europe is
00:37:26
taking action in the area of defense is
00:37:28
actually not true It is again the
00:37:31
national governments who get more uh
00:37:35
more possibilities to to borrow money
00:37:37
That's essentially what's happening And
00:37:39
there is no initiative except for some
00:37:41
timid initiatives by the commission that
00:37:44
are being dismissed by the national
00:37:45
government leaders to try and at least
00:37:48
harmonize a little and to have some you
00:37:50
know forward planning so that we will
00:37:52
defense end on that road Yeah
00:37:55
was was you know for the future NATO was
00:37:58
our European defense and it was a
00:38:01
multilateral coordinated defense of
00:38:03
individual armies which had the US not
00:38:05
opted out or opted to look at it in a
00:38:09
different way We could see this coming
00:38:12
No no I'm not saying we saw this coming
00:38:14
and we didn't respond All right we're
00:38:16
getting we're getting urgents coming
00:38:18
from the uh uh European Commission in
00:38:20
the last minutes and one of them Dave
00:38:22
Keading is the EU Commission removing US
00:38:25
bourbon from its list of goods to face
00:38:28
counter tariff measures That's according
00:38:29
to a document the same document that
00:38:32
proposes 25% tariffs on US goods to take
00:38:34
effect from May 16th So that gives a bit
00:38:37
of time uh to uh to negotiate some more
00:38:41
uh and uh counter tariffs on a range of
00:38:44
US imports at 25% This in response to
00:38:48
steel duties So uh again giving itself
00:38:52
perhaps more uh breathing room uh while
00:38:56
at the same time starting to uh
00:38:58
uh sharpen the focus on where it might
00:39:02
hit Alexandra KB just getting back to
00:39:04
this example we gave of uh uh you know
00:39:06
the the payments you make with with your
00:39:08
smartphone and trying to make it a a
00:39:11
whole European ecosystem instead of
00:39:12
having to go through uh Visa and
00:39:15
Mastercard or PayPal Um would that
00:39:19
weaken or strengthen the argument for
00:39:21
the EU as a safe haven currency
00:39:28
the Europe and
00:39:30
obviously and the European Union and the
00:39:35
European financial uh markets Um I think
00:39:39
the problem is here that uh you hear
00:39:43
Christine Lagal saying that we use only
00:39:46
American technology and companies but
00:39:49
what has she done over all these years I
00:39:52
I mean uh it's terrible uh it's terrible
00:39:56
that the the the the European Central
00:40:00
Bank has not been able to move beyond
00:40:03
some uh pilots Uh uh if we are talking
00:40:06
about the the digital euro for example
00:40:09
look at what China did Look at what uh
00:40:12
Russia did Look look at what the the
00:40:15
United Arab Emirates did in this regard
00:40:18
And is that the fault of the ECB or the
00:40:19
fault of the member states It's not the
00:40:21
fault of it is uh on on the political
00:40:26
side it is the fault of the member
00:40:28
states but on the business and technical
00:40:32
uh side it is uh very much the fault of
00:40:35
the ECB because the ECB uh is the the
00:40:38
the the like the control tower of the
00:40:42
European financial uh and banking system
00:40:46
So the the ECB must provide this this
00:40:49
impulse this uh impetus and uh uh for
00:40:53
now over all these years uh I think uh
00:40:57
the the mountain has given birth to uh
00:41:00
to to something that is not even worth
00:41:03
uh really uh talking about and that's
00:41:06
that's really the the the reality this
00:41:08
gap between the ambition uh and what we
00:41:12
observe on the ground Yeah the mountain
00:41:14
in French the expression is I believe a
00:41:16
mountain giving birth to a mouse Uh Dave
00:41:19
Keading let me ask you because uh th
00:41:23
this overdependence on US defense that
00:41:25
we've talked about but also the
00:41:26
overdependence on uh US financial
00:41:29
services uh you argue that uh it's also
00:41:34
inflected our consumer culture We've
00:41:37
we've talked a lot on this show about
00:41:39
how free speech absolutism first
00:41:41
amendment in the US uh has an impact
00:41:43
here in Europe when it comes to things
00:41:45
like social media But here you mentioned
00:41:48
something quite basic Suddenly this
00:41:50
pressure to tip which we didn't used to
00:41:53
have here in the
00:41:57
EU Yeah It's this very weird um effect
00:42:01
of us here in Europe using American
00:42:03
payment systems is that we've started to
00:42:05
have these prompts to tip on the uh uh
00:42:09
tablet style screens that you pay on
00:42:12
here in Europe and in the US And because
00:42:14
those systems were made in the US we're
00:42:16
starting to get prompted to ask if we'd
00:42:18
like to leave a tip We don't do that
00:42:20
here in Belgium And in most European
00:42:22
countries you wouldn't tip a a clerk at
00:42:25
a store Uh and so you know I frequently
00:42:28
in the situation now where the clerk is
00:42:30
embarrassed about this number I usually
00:42:32
find they just come over and they hit no
00:42:33
themselves uh or they say gh I don't
00:42:36
know it's an American system so that's
00:42:38
what we have but that's just a very
00:42:39
tangible uh way in which that culture uh
00:42:44
infects Europe uh and and that's just
00:42:48
one way because of the dependence on the
00:42:50
financial transactions but it's true if
00:42:52
we look at where we get our media where
00:42:54
Europeans read news articles if it's not
00:42:57
in their own country If they're reading
00:42:58
a news article about the EU it's going
00:43:00
to be from the UK or more likely the US
00:43:03
because it's in English the lingua
00:43:05
franka of the EU If we look at
00:43:07
television consumption radio consumption
00:43:10
Europe consumes so much culture from the
00:43:13
US that you know young people here could
00:43:14
be forgiven for having the impression
00:43:16
that they actually live in the United
00:43:18
States with the degree to which the US
00:43:20
is kind of omnipresent in all of our
00:43:22
lives here in Europe This is something
00:43:24
that is so so ingrained that as was
00:43:27
mentioned before yeah this stuff is not
00:43:29
going to be solved in a week This is a
00:43:31
problem that has been decades in the
00:43:33
making and it's going to take decades to
00:43:36
solve I think that the balance that has
00:43:38
to be struck here is you have to figure
00:43:40
out what you can do in the short term uh
00:43:42
which is not treaty change which is not
00:43:44
constitutional reform uh of the EU
00:43:47
itself You have to focus on what you can
00:43:49
do in the short term but also plant the
00:43:51
seeds to get ready to change because you
00:43:53
have to start somewhere And if we just
00:43:55
keep saying uh it'll take too long
00:43:57
there's no time then nothing will ever
00:43:59
change and Europe will continue that
00:44:00
dependency for the foreseeable future So
00:44:03
Yakob Hassler is pining to intercede
00:44:05
Unfortunately we're out of time But I
00:44:07
want to thank you so much Dave Keading I
00:44:09
want to thank Alexandra Kb for being
00:44:11
with us from Abu Dhabi Sophie Infeld
00:44:14
from Gent Yakob Next time we'll do it
00:44:17
We'll do it again Well and thank you for
00:44:19
being with us here in the France 24
00:44:21
debate
00:44:23
[Music]

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