TF2: Nobody's Home
概要
TLDRThe video explores the state of Team Fortress 2 (TF2), emphasizing its continued popularity despite being 16 years old. It reveals that the reported player counts are misleading due to the presence of bots, which inflate the numbers. The video categorizes bots into three types: cheaters, traders, and idlers, explaining how they contribute to the player count without genuine human activity. Data analysis shows discrepancies between Steam's reported player counts and actual human activity, suggesting that a significant portion of the player base consists of bots. The video concludes with a call to action for the community to address the issues surrounding botting and the neglect from Valve, urging players to hold the company accountable for the game's state.
収穫
- 🎮 TF2 is 16 years old but still popular.
- 📊 Reported player counts are inflated by bots.
- 🤖 Three types of bots: cheaters, traders, idlers.
- 📉 Actual human player count is around 25,000-30,000.
- 🔍 Data analysis shows discrepancies in player counts.
- 🚨 Valve has neglected the bot issue for years.
- 💬 Community needs to speak out against bots.
- 💰 Players should stop spending money until changes are made.
- 📈 Teamwork.tf provides more accurate player data.
- ⚠️ The game's state is worse than it appears.
タイムライン
- 00:00:00 - 00:05:00
Team Fortress 2 (TF2) has reached 16 years of age and remains one of the oldest supported video games, consistently ranking among the top 10 most played games on Steam. Despite its age, it appears to have a thriving player base, but there are underlying issues that suggest otherwise.
- 00:05:00 - 00:10:00
The apparent player count reported by Steam is misleading. There is a significant discrepancy between the number of players in-game and the reported figures, with many servers being filled by cheating bots rather than actual players, indicating a neglect of the game.
- 00:10:00 - 00:15:00
Bots in TF2 come in three main types: cheaters, traders, and idlers. Cheater bots disrupt gameplay, while trading bots facilitate item exchanges. Idler bots collect timed item drops, contributing to the inflated player count reported by Steam.
- 00:15:00 - 00:20:00
Idler bots are particularly problematic, as they exploit the item drop system, leading to tens of thousands of bots running at any given time. This artificial inflation of player numbers misrepresents the actual player base of TF2.
- 00:20:00 - 00:25:00
To analyze player activity accurately, high-resolution player data is needed. Steam's data is often averaged and lacks detail, making it difficult to assess true player engagement. A bot was set up to collect TF2's player counts directly from Steam's API for analysis.
- 00:25:00 - 00:30:00
Observations of player data reveal that TF2's player counts do not exhibit typical human behavior, such as daily fluctuations. Instead, the data shows flat cycles with random spikes and drops, indicating a high volume of bot activity.
- 00:30:00 - 00:35:00
The lack of normal player behavior suggests that the player counts are heavily influenced by bots. When server outages occur, many accounts go offline and do not return, further supporting the idea of bot networks operating continuously.
- 00:35:00 - 00:40:00
Evidence suggests that bot networks are likely responsible for the inflated player counts, as they can be turned on and off en masse. This behavior aligns with the patterns observed in other heavily botted games.
- 00:40:00 - 00:45:00
The analysis of player data from teamwork.tf, which tracks players inside game servers, shows significantly lower player counts than Steam, reinforcing the idea that a large portion of reported players are bots rather than humans.
- 00:45:00 - 00:50:00
The true player count for TF2 is estimated to be around 25,000 to 30,000 humans on any given day, while Steam's reported numbers are inflated by bots, with estimates suggesting that 70-80% of the player count may be non-human.
- 00:50:00 - 00:59:31
The video concludes that TF2 is facing severe neglect from Valve, leading to a bot-infested environment that detracts from the player experience. The community is encouraged to voice their concerns and demand better support for the game.
マインドマップ
ビデオQ&A
What is the main issue with Team Fortress 2's player count?
The player count is inflated by bots, making it seem like there are more players than there actually are.
What types of bots are present in TF2?
There are three main types of bots: cheaters, traders, and idlers.
How does bot activity affect the gameplay experience?
Bots can disrupt gameplay, especially cheaters, while idlers and traders inflate player counts without contributing to genuine play.
What evidence is presented to support the claim of inflated player counts?
Data analysis shows discrepancies between Steam's reported player counts and actual human activity, indicating a high volume of bots.
What should the community do about the bot issue?
The community should speak out against the bot problem and hold Valve accountable for addressing it.
How many real human players are estimated to be playing TF2?
The estimated number of real human players is around 25,000 to 30,000 on any given day.
What has Valve's response been to the bot problem?
Valve has shown little interest in addressing the bot issue, despite the game's ongoing profitability.
What is the significance of the data collected from teamwork.tf?
Teamwork.tf provides a more accurate representation of player counts by excluding idle and trade bots.
How does the community perceive the state of TF2?
There is a disconnect between the community's positive discourse and the actual state of the game, which is plagued by bots.
What is the call to action for TF2 players?
Players are encouraged to stop spending money on the game until Valve addresses the bot problem.
ビデオをもっと見る
- 00:00:01[Music]
- 00:00:06recently reaching 16 years of age Team
- 00:00:09Fortress 2 is one of the oldest actively
- 00:00:12supported video games on the market
- 00:00:14despite being old enough to legally
- 00:00:15drive players still come out in droves
- 00:00:17to play TF2 every day frequently placing
- 00:00:20it in the top 10 most played games on
- 00:00:23Steam fans often site this placement as
- 00:00:25evidence of the game's continued growth
- 00:00:27and popularity which is an exceptional
- 00:00:29feed in face of its age thanks to this
- 00:00:32especially to someone unfamiliar with
- 00:00:34TF2 everything seems fine on the surface
- 00:00:38this relic of a game still receives
- 00:00:40updates has active developer support and
- 00:00:43has tens of thousands of players every
- 00:00:45single day really seems like this game
- 00:00:48is destined to live
- 00:00:52[Music]
- 00:00:53forever yeah I don't buy that nope look
- 00:00:56at the number of players reported by
- 00:00:58Steam intuitively if you tally up every
- 00:01:01player inside of Game servers that
- 00:01:03figure should be pretty close to what's
- 00:01:05reported by
- 00:01:07steam uh well all right that's a massive
- 00:01:10discrepancy you know what ignore that Q
- 00:01:13for a game you'll often find that the
- 00:01:15game coordinator struggles to fill up an
- 00:01:17entire server even on popular Maps
- 00:01:19during peak hours despite tens of
- 00:01:22thousands of people apparently playing
- 00:01:24the game and more often than not these
- 00:01:26servers are filled by cheating Bots this
- 00:01:29doesn't add up where are all the players
- 00:01:32for years players myself included have
- 00:01:34taken tf2's player count at face value
- 00:01:38as true but this number is not real Team
- 00:01:43Fortress 2 faces abhorent neglect which
- 00:01:47has left it wide open for abuse and
- 00:01:49exploitation the magnitude of which very
- 00:01:52few people understand
- 00:02:03until now
- 00:02:09[Music]
- 00:02:31[Music]
- 00:02:46Bots or non-human activity have been a
- 00:02:49part of Team Fortress 2's ecosystem for
- 00:02:51many years Bots come in various forms
- 00:02:54but most of them fall into three basic
- 00:02:56categories we have cheaters Traders and
- 00:02:59Idol ERS the type of Bot that I'm sure
- 00:03:01most of you are unfortunately familiar
- 00:03:04with are cheaters these are non-human
- 00:03:06accounts that are set up to well cheat
- 00:03:09they've plagued valve's official game
- 00:03:11servers for many years now making the
- 00:03:13game unplayable more often than not yet
- 00:03:16despite their annoying presence there's
- 00:03:18not that many of them Bots that actually
- 00:03:20play the game require a lot of resources
- 00:03:23like computer memory Argo a single
- 00:03:25person can't host that many cheater Bots
- 00:03:27without some serious investment most bot
- 00:03:30hosters operate less than 100 at an
- 00:03:32individual level typically on their own
- 00:03:34Hardware or by using free trials of
- 00:03:37cloud services like Amazon for example
- 00:03:39if these self-reported figures are to be
- 00:03:41trusted the total number of cheater bots
- 00:03:44in TF2 likely numbers around a thousand
- 00:03:47at any given time likely slightly less
- 00:03:50than that of course this figure does
- 00:03:52vary throughout the year because bot
- 00:03:54hosters tend to fire up more Bots
- 00:03:56specifically to disrupt new
- 00:03:58updates the second type of Bot that I'm
- 00:04:00sure many of you are also familiar with
- 00:04:03are Traders these are automated accounts
- 00:04:05that handle trade requests for
- 00:04:06thirdparty sites or buy sell and trade
- 00:04:09items for individual players that lease
- 00:04:11them I'll go ahead and lump gambling
- 00:04:13site Bots into this group as well but
- 00:04:15they're definitely a minority trading
- 00:04:17Bots aren't required to be in game to
- 00:04:19trade but quite a few of them idle in
- 00:04:21game for various reasons aesthetic
- 00:04:23purposes for example perhaps this
- 00:04:25entices someone to trade with a bot more
- 00:04:28often I'm not entirely sure
- 00:04:30unsurprisingly the total number of
- 00:04:32trading Bots outnumbers cheater Bots
- 00:04:35reaching well into the thousands where
- 00:04:37there's money to be made people will
- 00:04:39come trading Bots don't play the game
- 00:04:42they simply move items around requiring
- 00:04:44far fewer resources than cheater Bots to
- 00:04:46operate so we should expect more of
- 00:04:49these out in the wild however only a
- 00:04:51fraction of trading Bots have the game
- 00:04:53running likely around 3 to 500 or so
- 00:04:56Bots from larger trading websites don't
- 00:04:58idle typ TYC Al only those operated by
- 00:05:01individual players or rental
- 00:05:04services and that brings us to our final
- 00:05:07type of Bot the one the least of you are
- 00:05:09familiar with idlers these are accounts
- 00:05:12that are set up to collect tf2's timed
- 00:05:14item drops which can then be sold for a
- 00:05:16profit in the past valve didn't take
- 00:05:19kindly to this and took action against
- 00:05:21idlers they limited how many items are
- 00:05:23dropped per week and made it so players
- 00:05:25had to be inside of Game servers in
- 00:05:27order to receive them these were decent
- 00:05:29stop gaps but not the best deterrence in
- 00:05:31the long run because idlers still
- 00:05:33operate to this day given the fact that
- 00:05:36TF2 and steam are both free it's very
- 00:05:40easy to exploit the item drop system in
- 00:05:42total the number of idle Bots reaches
- 00:05:45into the tens of thousands Yes you heard
- 00:05:48me right tens of thousands and if you
- 00:05:52lump all types of bots together a vast
- 00:05:55majority of them have the game running
- 00:05:57this means that they contribute toward
- 00:05:59towards the total player count as
- 00:06:01reported by steam this artificially
- 00:06:03inflates the player numbers making Team
- 00:06:05Fortress 2 look far more populated than
- 00:06:08it really is Team Fortress 2 doesn't
- 00:06:11really have 60 to 100,000 players
- 00:06:13throughout the year in fact it's far far
- 00:06:17less and I'll prove it to you
- 00:06:25[Music]
- 00:06:32starting at square one if you want to
- 00:06:34see Bing activity you need high
- 00:06:37resolution player data the unfortunate
- 00:06:39thing about Steam and therefore websites
- 00:06:42like steam DB is that they don't
- 00:06:44preserve high resolution historic player
- 00:06:46counts player counts are sampled every
- 00:06:4810 minutes which is perfect but over
- 00:06:50time steam gets rid of data in order to
- 00:06:52save space the data get gradually
- 00:06:55averaged to hourly and then daily and so
- 00:06:58on and so forth which removes a lot of
- 00:07:00information so I had to make a record
- 00:07:03myself with a lot of help of course Very
- 00:07:06graciously Mega scatter bomb volunteered
- 00:07:08his time and set up a bot for me that
- 00:07:11collects tf2's player counts directly
- 00:07:13from steam's API we've been sampling
- 00:07:15tf2's player count every 10 minutes
- 00:07:18since mid December of last year and
- 00:07:20that's the data that I'll be using for
- 00:07:22my analysis I should note now that steam
- 00:07:25reports an instant snapshot of players
- 00:07:28in game not some weird average value
- 00:07:30over time which is a common
- 00:07:32misconception the number you see is the
- 00:07:35actual number of players in game well or
- 00:07:37so I've long since thought so to kick
- 00:07:40things off I can sail this ship most of
- 00:07:42the way home with some very basic
- 00:07:45observations it doesn't take a rocket
- 00:07:47science to prove that TF2 is heavily
- 00:07:49boded just a pair of eyeballs and some
- 00:07:51common sense right now everyone watching
- 00:07:54this video what I want you to do go to
- 00:07:57steam DB and pick any game on Steam and
- 00:08:00what you're going to see are player
- 00:08:02counts that look like this here's some
- 00:08:04player data from rust Apex Legends and
- 00:08:08Counterstrike what you're going to
- 00:08:10notice are very clear cyclic player
- 00:08:13Peaks and lows these Cycles happen on a
- 00:08:16daily basis separated by about 24 hours
- 00:08:19intuitively player counts fluctuate like
- 00:08:22this because of a natural human need
- 00:08:25sleep most humans sleep most people turn
- 00:08:28off their games and their computers
- 00:08:30before they go to bed of course there
- 00:08:32exists a nonzero number of humans that
- 00:08:35leave their games running all the time
- 00:08:36or at odd hours but they definitely
- 00:08:39represent a negligible minority this is
- 00:08:42the dominant expected Behavior inside of
- 00:08:45player data one should expect normal
- 00:08:48human activity and Bots they don't need
- 00:08:51sleep they run all the time or with
- 00:08:53behavior that doesn't reflect human
- 00:08:55activity so if a game's player data
- 00:08:57doesn't fluctuate like this something is
- 00:09:00a miss or the game is truly Dead one
- 00:09:03could even consider these daily Cycles
- 00:09:05like a video game's heartbeat its pulse
- 00:09:08the stronger the rise and fall the
- 00:09:10stronger the heart therefore daily
- 00:09:12player fluctuations are a far better
- 00:09:14indicator of real human activity in a
- 00:09:17video game rather than the peak player
- 00:09:19count on any given day now with that
- 00:09:22basic but very important observation
- 00:09:24established let's look at tf2's player
- 00:09:27data do we see human behavor avor here
- 00:09:30the short answer is no not really I'll
- 00:09:33start by showing the entire data record
- 00:09:36since mid December this is pretty hard
- 00:09:38to read and a lot to digest so let's
- 00:09:41zoom in to pretty much any given week
- 00:09:43like the other games from a qualitative
- 00:09:45standpoint it looks like tf2 has very
- 00:09:48little human activity its daily Cycles
- 00:09:51are very flat compared to other video
- 00:09:53games while player counts remain
- 00:09:55consistently High the data are also very
- 00:09:58noisy it's riddle with random spikes and
- 00:10:00drops ranging from a few thousand to
- 00:10:03often times tens of thousands of players
- 00:10:06they're very rapid as well occurring
- 00:10:08over the course of a couple of hours or
- 00:10:10less compared with other video games TF2
- 00:10:13has a comparatively weak and AR rhythmic
- 00:10:15heartbeat the entire Player record looks
- 00:10:18like this zooming into any other week's
- 00:10:20worth of data shows the exact same
- 00:10:22behavior what's going on here well you
- 00:10:24know given the focus of this video your
- 00:10:26mind may go to Bots and it is Bots but
- 00:10:29mind my job in this video is to play
- 00:10:31Devil's Advocate so to play the role of
- 00:10:33Devil's Advocate I have a little friend
- 00:10:35here say hello to my she devil well that
- 00:10:37wasn't very nice anyways let's address
- 00:10:40the first observation what would cause
- 00:10:43flattened player Cycles well I'm sure
- 00:10:45this came into some people's minds
- 00:10:47wouldn't flat player Cycles be caused by
- 00:10:50a bunch of accounts that never go
- 00:10:51offline well yes you're correct for
- 00:10:54example let's say you have a game where
- 00:10:5610,000 humans log on and off every
- 00:10:58single day here's what that player data
- 00:11:00would look like then let's add 50,000
- 00:11:03accounts that never drop Offline that
- 00:11:05raises the minimum Baseline of online
- 00:11:07accounts so player Cycles get squished
- 00:11:10now of course I could adjust the scaling
- 00:11:11of my charts to make the cycles look
- 00:11:13normal again but note that steam always
- 00:11:16plots from zero to a little bit above
- 00:11:18the maximum player count so it's not
- 00:11:20chart scaling messing with our eyes here
- 00:11:22and that's where things get suspicious
- 00:11:25my devil's advocate says this is due to
- 00:11:28a high volume of play at any given time
- 00:11:30thanks to tf2's Global popularity there
- 00:11:33is indeed this common belief amongst TF2
- 00:11:36fans that the game is globally popular
- 00:11:38which isn't entirely incorrect this
- 00:11:40should translate into more people
- 00:11:42playing at any given time because you
- 00:11:44know time zones exist this would indeed
- 00:11:47smear out player activity across 24
- 00:11:50hours while keeping player counts
- 00:11:51consistently high but this argument is
- 00:11:54debunked immediately given that about
- 00:11:5780% of player activity is in the Western
- 00:12:00Hemisphere and in Europe given this we
- 00:12:03should expect for the vast majority of
- 00:12:05player activity to occur within a much
- 00:12:07shorter time frame in other words taller
- 00:12:10Peaks and lows not shorter ones this
- 00:12:12isn't me saying that tf2's player count
- 00:12:14should reach zero every day just that
- 00:12:17the fluctuations should be more
- 00:12:19pronounced for example a globally
- 00:12:21popular title would be something like
- 00:12:22Warframe we have much shorter player
- 00:12:25Cycles but consistently High player
- 00:12:27counts but a regionally popular game
- 00:12:29would be something like nakaka blade
- 00:12:31points assuming I pronounced that right
- 00:12:33this game is only popular in a very
- 00:12:35narrow swath of Asia therefore its
- 00:12:37player Cycles are much larger as nearly
- 00:12:40all players log on and off at around the
- 00:12:42same time TF2 should be somewhere in the
- 00:12:45middle of these games but it's not well
- 00:12:49my little she devil says hey well you
- 00:12:51know what a bunch of humans simply leave
- 00:12:53their games running all the time this is
- 00:12:55an argument that I've seen posed many
- 00:12:57times before however there's no
- 00:13:00incentive for the common player to do
- 00:13:02this other than idling which hasn't been
- 00:13:04profitable at the individual level since
- 00:13:062009 there are other Niche reasons for
- 00:13:09leaving TF2 running continuously but the
- 00:13:12individual humans that do this almost
- 00:13:14certainly represent a tiny minority of
- 00:13:16the player base so the argument of a
- 00:13:20large volume of humans being present all
- 00:13:22the time isn't plausible now for that
- 00:13:26second weird behavior all of the random
- 00:13:29spacks and dips in the data some of
- 00:13:31these are human yes a few sharp dips
- 00:13:33coincide with server outages as players
- 00:13:36get knocked offline but a key feature
- 00:13:38with outages is that we see a complete
- 00:13:40recovery back to normal player activity
- 00:13:43soon after servers come back online
- 00:13:45here's a few games as an example normal
- 00:13:47player counts resume within a short time
- 00:13:49frame a few hours if not faster and most
- 00:13:52importantly these outages are correlated
- 00:13:55and reflected in other games data at the
- 00:13:58same time of reported issues that's the
- 00:14:00sure fired way of knowing that these
- 00:14:02dips are outage related and not
- 00:14:04something else but what's very strange
- 00:14:07about outage related dips in tf2s data
- 00:14:10is that we often times see an incomplete
- 00:14:13recovery huge chunks of accounts get
- 00:14:15knocked offline and then never return
- 00:14:18January 30th 2024 an outage knocks
- 00:14:21players offline 12,000 accounts that
- 00:14:24were present before the outages never
- 00:14:27return little she devil says you know
- 00:14:29what these could just be discouraged
- 00:14:31players that will come back later but
- 00:14:32even many hours later there is no
- 00:14:35recovery this isn't an uncommon
- 00:14:37occurrence either this happens almost
- 00:14:39every time there's a server outage and
- 00:14:42sometimes these massive dips happen
- 00:14:44without server outages thousands or tens
- 00:14:46of thousands of accounts suddenly vanish
- 00:14:49also outages only address sudden dips in
- 00:14:53players not spikes like this one where
- 00:14:56tens of thousands of accounts suddenly
- 00:14:58come online we we also have very
- 00:15:00frequent smaller spikes like these where
- 00:15:02a few thousand accounts suddenly appear
- 00:15:04and then go offline about 30 minutes
- 00:15:06later or vice versa and yeah sure game
- 00:15:09updates account for some large spikes in
- 00:15:11players but meaningful updates only
- 00:15:14happen three times a year
- 00:15:16inconsequential patches about once a
- 00:15:18month if even that not every week not
- 00:15:21every day so aside from the few
- 00:15:23infrequent server outages and updates
- 00:15:26what causes all of these spikes and dips
- 00:15:29in terms of random spikes and drops
- 00:15:32rapid player fluctuations are totally
- 00:15:34normal and yes they are for all video
- 00:15:36games but the difference is that they're
- 00:15:38not random if I take the hour by hour
- 00:15:41difference in player data that shows me
- 00:15:44the gain or loss in players over the
- 00:15:46past hour let's plot that for
- 00:15:48Counterstrike Apex Legends and DOTA for
- 00:15:51a few examples and as you can see large
- 00:15:54volumes of players log on or off at
- 00:15:56around the same time every day
- 00:15:59additionally they're consistently sized
- 00:16:01volumes this behavior is true for all
- 00:16:04video games and what you're seeing are
- 00:16:06those daily Cycles again and this makes
- 00:16:08sense people get off of work or come
- 00:16:10home from school and eventually go to
- 00:16:12bed at around the same time every day
- 00:16:14but for Team Fortress 2 hour by- hour
- 00:16:16player fluctuations are entirely random
- 00:16:19we see huge volumes of players logging
- 00:16:22on or off at random times and absolutely
- 00:16:25zero consistency in terms of the volumes
- 00:16:27of players coming and going these larger
- 00:16:30spikes can reach into the thousands or
- 00:16:32tens of thousands of accounts reflecting
- 00:16:345 10 20% or more of the player count at
- 00:16:38the time well all right my little she
- 00:16:40devil now says TF2 simply experiences
- 00:16:44huge chunks of players logging on or off
- 00:16:46at random times it records player
- 00:16:48numbers in some weird way end of story I
- 00:16:51didn't straw man this by the way I've
- 00:16:53seen this argument posed before and I
- 00:16:55have no way of directly debunking this
- 00:16:58but as I've shown this is not normal in
- 00:17:01any video game how on Earth can TF2 be
- 00:17:05the only exception are flattened player
- 00:17:07Cycles human are these dips and spikes
- 00:17:11human no way not a chance in hell this
- 00:17:14is assuredly bot activity but do I have
- 00:17:17proof of this the short answer yeah I do
- 00:17:35one of the more convincing pieces of
- 00:17:37evidence I have is when servers go
- 00:17:39offline let's go back to that example on
- 00:17:41January 30th after nearly every server
- 00:17:44outage we see that incomplete recovery
- 00:17:47where thousands of accounts don't return
- 00:17:49but oh hey look usually about a day or
- 00:17:52two later Boop all of these missing
- 00:17:54accounts suddenly return all at once
- 00:17:56over the course of about an hour or so
- 00:17:58we we have thousands of accounts getting
- 00:18:00turned off and then thousands of
- 00:18:02accounts getting turned back on or
- 00:18:03sometimes vice versa here's an example
- 00:18:06of when there wasn't an outage January
- 00:18:0827th 2024
- 00:18:1122,000 accounts suddenly go offline and
- 00:18:14then 6 hours later they all come back
- 00:18:16online another example January 20th 2024
- 00:18:2125,000 accounts suddenly come online 26
- 00:18:25hours later they all drop offline then
- 00:18:28about a day later they all come online
- 00:18:30again to then all turn off again about 2
- 00:18:32days later what the [ __ ] man and here's
- 00:18:35another
- 00:18:36example and
- 00:18:39another and
- 00:18:41another and
- 00:18:43another this weird Behavior was the
- 00:18:46first thing I noticed when I started
- 00:18:47looking at tf2's player data and when I
- 00:18:49saw this just think about that right
- 00:18:51tens of thousands of bots running all
- 00:18:53the time that get knocked offline when
- 00:18:55servers die and then their owners turn
- 00:18:57them back on when they wake up the
- 00:18:58following day that's what this looks
- 00:19:00like to me but I couldn't just present
- 00:19:02that as fact and then call it a day so I
- 00:19:05got a second opinion I spoke with mega
- 00:19:07scatter bomb someone far more
- 00:19:09well-versed in bing activity than I am
- 00:19:11and after some conversations and showing
- 00:19:13him the data it turns out that these are
- 00:19:16more than likely what are known as bot
- 00:19:18Nets huge networks of bots that seem to
- 00:19:21be running all the time most of these
- 00:19:23dips happen on a Tuesday when Steam
- 00:19:26servers undergo routine maintenance this
- 00:19:28log pretty much everyone's account out
- 00:19:30of steam humans with their clients open
- 00:19:32at an individual level quickly log back
- 00:19:34on but botn Nets they remain offline
- 00:19:37each of the individual bot accounts has
- 00:19:39to log back in so it's a lot faster to
- 00:19:42Simply restart the entire network at a
- 00:19:44set time it seems like bot holters have
- 00:19:46this set up to automatically happen
- 00:19:48about 24 hours after every Tuesday ends
- 00:19:51this is a consistent observation seen
- 00:19:53across all outages nearly every single
- 00:19:57week but why would someone run thousands
- 00:20:01or tens of thousands of bots all at once
- 00:20:03is this even possible the only type of
- 00:20:06Bot that makes sense to operate at this
- 00:20:08scale are those outside of Game servers
- 00:20:10since it becomes way too resource
- 00:20:12intensive to host that many Bots playing
- 00:20:14the game like I mentioned earlier so
- 00:20:16it's not cheaters and trading sites
- 00:20:19don't need 10,000 Bots that leaves
- 00:20:21idlers they're far less resource
- 00:20:23intensive and using cracked versions of
- 00:20:26the game running in text mode it's very
- 00:20:28easy to run a ton of bots on minimal
- 00:20:30Hardware so it's very much possible and
- 00:20:33evidence suggests that there is a
- 00:20:35shitload of bots now listen I've known
- 00:20:38for years that Bots used to be set up to
- 00:20:40idle for item drops but apparently this
- 00:20:43is still happening despite it having
- 00:20:45been over a decade since valves
- 00:20:47supposedly made that harder to do so I
- 00:20:50did some digging I reached out to some
- 00:20:52Traders and eventually came across a guy
- 00:20:54who specifically deals in hundreds of
- 00:20:57thousands of it item cases yes item
- 00:21:00cases and he typically acquired his
- 00:21:03cases in bulk from one seller he has a
- 00:21:06connection that receives up to 2 million
- 00:21:09cases in one year now assuming this to
- 00:21:12be true either this guy's connection
- 00:21:14manages to buy or trade for 225 cases
- 00:21:17every hour on the hour 5,480 cases a day
- 00:21:21for a year straight which isn't humanly
- 00:21:23possible on a single steam account or he
- 00:21:26has a network of accounts doing this for
- 00:21:28him given that figure of 2 million cases
- 00:21:31from one Trader and assuming about two
- 00:21:33case drops per week which is roughly
- 00:21:35average per Steam account that would
- 00:21:37require
- 00:21:3919,23 accounts running year round which
- 00:21:43is similar to the magnitude of the
- 00:21:45spikes and dips we're seeing in the data
- 00:21:48oh God and you know what that's a lower
- 00:21:51bound if you want to speed things up
- 00:21:53you're going to need more accounts or
- 00:21:55separate bot networks and this is just
- 00:21:57one guy there's definitely other people
- 00:22:00operating bot farms at various scales
- 00:22:03now I'm sure some of y'all are thinking
- 00:22:05to yourself why item cases why not idle
- 00:22:08for regular items won't those be worth
- 00:22:10more in the long run because you can
- 00:22:12craft them into metal and yeah your
- 00:22:14typical item case is cheaper than a
- 00:22:16piece of refined metal but it's a lot
- 00:22:19faster to get one case drop than the 18
- 00:22:22weapons required for a single piece of
- 00:22:24refined metal cases are a lot easier to
- 00:22:26acquire because you don't need to log
- 00:22:28into gamees servers unlike regular items
- 00:22:30which drop on a separate timer cases are
- 00:22:32dispensed in Mass several times a week
- 00:22:34if you simply have the game running for
- 00:22:37free valve really wants people to get
- 00:22:39into the gacha and if they're reminded a
- 00:22:41few times a week to do so well you know
- 00:22:43gambling addicts we also have botn Nets
- 00:22:46that fire up specifically to harvest
- 00:22:48gift Ault drops during the Christmas
- 00:22:50season but more on that later and as was
- 00:22:53confirmed by others I spoke with
- 00:22:55traditional item Farms do still exist
- 00:22:58but but likely use far smaller botn Nets
- 00:23:01these periodically log into Game servers
- 00:23:03because they're farming normal item
- 00:23:04drops with the aforementioned
- 00:23:06restrictions you remember those smaller
- 00:23:08spikes in the data these are likely
- 00:23:09smaller botn Nets a few thousand strong
- 00:23:11firing up a few times a week some come
- 00:23:14online for about a half an hour get
- 00:23:15their drops and then all turn off
- 00:23:17because it's way too resource intensive
- 00:23:19to run these Bots all the time just a
- 00:23:22disclaimer this is a very very general
- 00:23:26overview of how idle Farms operate it's
- 00:23:28definitely not 100% accurate I'm lacking
- 00:23:31a lot of the Nuance details and I wanted
- 00:23:33to know more but extracting detailed
- 00:23:35information about bot Farms proves
- 00:23:38nearly impossible bot hosters are tight
- 00:23:40lipped they don't want these details out
- 00:23:42in the open because there is inherent
- 00:23:44competition because guess what money is
- 00:23:46involved something else the case Trader
- 00:23:49told me is that he knew people that used
- 00:23:51to host item Farms himself included but
- 00:23:54they don't do so anymore he also told
- 00:23:56Mega scatter bomb that idle Farm Farms
- 00:23:58tend to get banned right before seasonal
- 00:24:01updates arrive or at least they used to
- 00:24:03be in fact these band waves and the
- 00:24:06sheer size of the bot Farms are
- 00:24:08corroborated by comments from a valve
- 00:24:11employee who told Uncle DNE back in 2017
- 00:24:14not sure why people weren't more alarmed
- 00:24:16by this that they manually banned
- 00:24:19hundreds of thousands of bots set up to
- 00:24:22farm items and craft metal this was back
- 00:24:24in 2017 mind you years after restricted
- 00:24:29item drops in particular he mentioned
- 00:24:31the reoccurring problem of bots that
- 00:24:33people already use to slowly obtain free
- 00:24:35metal and told us about a specific
- 00:24:36instance very recently where he had to
- 00:24:38personally ban over 200,000 bot accounts
- 00:24:41we were all very impressed by this
- 00:24:42before he told us that the troublemakers
- 00:24:44simply just made 200,000 more accounts a
- 00:24:47few days later so it kind of puts into
- 00:24:48perspective how problematic the people
- 00:24:50who were completely willing to take
- 00:24:52advantage of the free economy that Team
- 00:24:53Fortress 2 offers and how difficult it
- 00:24:55might be to implement a metal sync
- 00:24:57system that would prevent that kind of
- 00:24:58thing from happening this confirms that
- 00:25:01item farming still happens at a massive
- 00:25:04scale even back when valve actively took
- 00:25:06measures against it and Lord knows they
- 00:25:08don't do that now Nothing is Stopping
- 00:25:10them meaning the problem has not only
- 00:25:12been happening for years now but it's
- 00:25:14likely the worst it's ever
- 00:25:18been and Now for Something Completely
- 00:25:21Different remember a little while ago
- 00:25:23when I said almost all video games have
- 00:25:26player counts that exhibit human
- 00:25:28behavior avior keyword almost here's
- 00:25:30unturned another popular game sometimes
- 00:25:33on par with TF2 in terms of player
- 00:25:35counts here's unts player numbers right
- 00:25:38away we see similarities with tf2's
- 00:25:40player data very flat player Cycles with
- 00:25:43simultaneously High player counts a
- 00:25:46jagged player curve riddled with random
- 00:25:49sometimes massive spikes and drops all
- 00:25:51of this is strikingly familiar isn't it
- 00:25:54lo and behold it's a well-known fact
- 00:25:57that un turned as heavily boded players
- 00:26:00caught wind of this a couple years ago
- 00:26:01when almost all reported players
- 00:26:03suddenly went offline and then didn't
- 00:26:05come back for a while no outages no
- 00:26:08cause just gone they also note a massive
- 00:26:12discrepancy between the number of
- 00:26:13players in Game servers and the numbers
- 00:26:15reported by steam we'll get back to that
- 00:26:17later this is just like tf2 except the
- 00:26:20developers of unturned have no idea why
- 00:26:23botting of this level is still happening
- 00:26:25years after the game's timed item drops
- 00:26:27were disabled some suspect that people
- 00:26:30artificially inflate the player count to
- 00:26:32make the game seem more popular than it
- 00:26:34actually is but in reality it's just
- 00:26:36people exploiting the free nature of the
- 00:26:38game and generally speaking if a game is
- 00:26:41live service is free to play and has
- 00:26:43some incentive to rank up accounts or
- 00:26:45offer some type of free currency it's
- 00:26:47almost guaranteed to be botted for
- 00:26:50profit here's another example lost Arc
- 00:26:53it's been well known for years that this
- 00:26:55game is massively boted hundreds of
- 00:26:57thousand thousands of bots are set up to
- 00:26:59collect gold the in-game currency and
- 00:27:02sure enough we see similar behavior in
- 00:27:04this player data flattened player Cycles
- 00:27:07tons of random spikes and drops just
- 00:27:09like tf2 here's another example this
- 00:27:12random game popped up in steam's top 100
- 00:27:14about a month into writing the script
- 00:27:16Governor of Poker 3 yeah for years this
- 00:27:20shitty poker game was dead no one
- 00:27:22touched it and then all of a sudden
- 00:27:25whoop thousands of players but perfect
- 00:27:28flat player curves plus huge spikes and
- 00:27:31drops I'm seeing some sad souls in these
- 00:27:34reviews but then oh look sure enough we
- 00:27:36have another heavily botted game for the
- 00:27:39sake of turning a profit so heavily in
- 00:27:41fact that you can't even see the daily
- 00:27:43player fluctuations this shit's flatter
- 00:27:45than a week old soda in general this is
- 00:27:48what botting activity looks like
- 00:27:50flattened player Cycles massive random
- 00:27:53spikes and dips in the data so alongside
- 00:27:56this thus far I've shown what I believe
- 00:27:59to be pretty solid evidence for high
- 00:28:02volumes of continuous botting activity
- 00:28:04tens of thousands of accounts that
- 00:28:06remain online all the time artificially
- 00:28:09inflating the player numbers a good
- 00:28:11chunk of tf2's player count as reported
- 00:28:14by steam is just Bots farming items for
- 00:28:17profit this was all deduced by simply
- 00:28:20looking at the raw data from Steam and
- 00:28:22then comparing it with other games and
- 00:28:24now for the million-dollar question how
- 00:28:27many Bots are are there how many humans
- 00:28:30are playing TF2 at any given time and
- 00:28:33for that answer we need some
- 00:28:48math here is a wonderful website
- 00:28:51teamwork. TF this website also tracks
- 00:28:54player numbers but it processes the data
- 00:28:56from steam's API a little bit
- 00:28:58differently instead of showing all
- 00:29:00online players teamwork. TF reports a
- 00:29:03snapshot of the number of players inside
- 00:29:06of Game servers this is greatly
- 00:29:09beneficial because this opens up an
- 00:29:11entirely new type of analysis few other
- 00:29:14games have but before that something I
- 00:29:16should note because I know for a fact
- 00:29:18people are going to [ __ ] at me for
- 00:29:20referencing these data there's nothing
- 00:29:22Shady about teamwork. tf's numbers as
- 00:29:24I've seen many others insinuate before
- 00:29:27they simp add up all of the accounts
- 00:29:29inside of Game servers data that's
- 00:29:31directly accessible through steam's API
- 00:29:33and the game itself these data are
- 00:29:36trustworthy and are reasonably accurate
- 00:29:38that aside what's useful about Teamworks
- 00:29:41player counts is that it excludes all of
- 00:29:44the accounts on the main menu or in Q
- 00:29:46for a game Argo it filters out nearly
- 00:29:49all idle and trade Bots at the cost of
- 00:29:52omitting some humans as well however
- 00:29:55these data also include cheater Bots and
- 00:29:58idle Bots inside of Game servers since
- 00:30:01these cannot be parsed from humans
- 00:30:04teamwork. tf's data is not showing 100%
- 00:30:08human activity but it's definitely
- 00:30:10mostly human and that's evident by
- 00:30:13simply looking at the data itself we can
- 00:30:15see very strong daily player Cycles no
- 00:30:19weird spikes or dips either at first
- 00:30:22glance this looks like data from any
- 00:30:24other healthy video game and thankfully
- 00:30:26unlike Steam we can look at historic
- 00:30:29data from
- 00:30:31teamwork.com hourly but only from the
- 00:30:34last couple of weeks thankfully however
- 00:30:37some unsung hero has been saving daily
- 00:30:40snapshots of this web page on the
- 00:30:42Wayback machine something you cannot do
- 00:30:45with steam or steam DB so spent a couple
- 00:30:48of days and I scraped all the data as
- 00:30:50much of a [ __ ] it was and check this
- 00:30:52[ __ ] out what we have here is an over
- 00:30:55threeyear long highresolution hisory
- 00:30:57historic record of the number of players
- 00:31:00inside of TF2 Game servers from late
- 00:31:032020 to present day this is the first
- 00:31:06time in tf2's history that we've seen
- 00:31:09such a complete record of player numbers
- 00:31:11so let's dig in let's compare teamwork.
- 00:31:14tf's data to the data that I've been
- 00:31:16collecting from Steam to keep things
- 00:31:17simple let's just take about a week's
- 00:31:19worth of data to start I'll plot them on
- 00:31:21the same chart and the first thing
- 00:31:23you'll notice is a massive discrepancy
- 00:31:26teamwork. TF has far lower player counts
- 00:31:29than steam it's anywhere from 25% of
- 00:31:32steam's values to often times way less
- 00:31:34and only half of that 25% resides in
- 00:31:37valve servers which is a very
- 00:31:40interesting observation one that
- 00:31:42confirmed some suspicions of my own such
- 00:31:45a low volume of human players explains
- 00:31:47the long Q times during anything other
- 00:31:49than Peak player hours if we really had
- 00:31:5270,000 people playing most of the time Q
- 00:31:55times even during off hours would be
- 00:31:58atrocious for anything other than the
- 00:32:00five most popular Maps additionally such
- 00:32:03a low volume of players inside of valve
- 00:32:05servers explains why we feel such a low
- 00:32:08volume of cheater Bots if we really had
- 00:32:1070,000 humans playing TF2 1,000 cheater
- 00:32:14Bots wouldn't amount to much but with
- 00:32:16only 5 to 10,000 humans inside of valve
- 00:32:19servers that explains why so few cheater
- 00:32:22Bots are way more tangible because that
- 00:32:24means on average inside of valve servers
- 00:32:27one out of every eight players is a
- 00:32:30[ __ ] bot but are Bots alone what
- 00:32:32causes this massive discrepancy Devil's
- 00:32:35Advocate says hey this could be mostly
- 00:32:37humans excluded by teamwork. TF and yes
- 00:32:40teamwork. TF excludes players not inside
- 00:32:44of Game servers so people in queue for a
- 00:32:46game or messing around in their backpack
- 00:32:48or opening cases gawking at fempire or
- 00:32:51what have you they don't show up but we
- 00:32:53should not expect for the number of
- 00:32:55people not playing the game to be that
- 00:32:58much greater let alone three times
- 00:33:00greater than those playing the game if
- 00:33:03that were true something is wrong the
- 00:33:06matchmaking system is broken the servers
- 00:33:08are down something not to mention about
- 00:33:1140 to 60% of server activity takes place
- 00:33:14inside of community servers where
- 00:33:16players tend to stay put for longer
- 00:33:17periods of time this would not translate
- 00:33:20to three out of four players waiting
- 00:33:22outside of Game servers additionally
- 00:33:25even if these were all humans outside of
- 00:33:27game servers they should also go to bed
- 00:33:30just the same as any other human so why
- 00:33:32does it seem like they never log off as
- 00:33:34a very basic observation steam's player
- 00:33:37numbers look almost exactly like
- 00:33:39teamwork numbers just noisier with all
- 00:33:42of those spikes and shifted upwards by a
- 00:33:44good amount again this would happen due
- 00:33:47to a bunch of accounts that never go
- 00:33:48offline raising the minimum Baseline of
- 00:33:51online accounts so is this discrepancy
- 00:33:55human no mostly not this discrepancy
- 00:33:58occurs because again teamwork. TF
- 00:34:01excludes Some Humans but also all of the
- 00:34:04idling and trade Bots that stay online
- 00:34:07all the time and now to address the
- 00:34:09million-dollar question how many Bots
- 00:34:12are there what is Team Fortress 2's real
- 00:34:15human player count now bear with me I'll
- 00:34:18take y'all through this nice and slow
- 00:34:21math can be scary but I'll be your guide
- 00:34:26[Music]
- 00:34:34I'm sure y'all's first instinct is to
- 00:34:36Simply take the difference between the
- 00:34:37peak player counts and that difference
- 00:34:39would be all the Bots you ship the
- 00:34:41player curves back down and then you're
- 00:34:43done this wouldn't be accurate on
- 00:34:45average Teamworks player Cycles are
- 00:34:47about 8,000 players strong whereas steam
- 00:34:50Cycles are about 18,000 players strong
- 00:34:54we already know that player Cycles are
- 00:34:56mostly if not in entirely human because
- 00:34:59remember people got to sleep so given
- 00:35:01that difference it seems like 10,000
- 00:35:03humans aren't accounted for in teamwork.
- 00:35:06tf's Daily player fluctuations Argo a
- 00:35:08direct shift of values would not be
- 00:35:11appropriate nor accurate however what we
- 00:35:13can do is compare percentages for
- 00:35:17example let's take a look at DOTA pubg
- 00:35:21rust and Apex Legends if I take the
- 00:35:24player data and then split it up by day
- 00:35:26if I then take the differ between the
- 00:35:28maximum player count and the minimum
- 00:35:30player count on each day we get the
- 00:35:32average size of that game's daily player
- 00:35:35flux but then if I divide the size of
- 00:35:37that player flux by the maximum daily
- 00:35:40player counts this Returns the
- 00:35:42percentage of the total player count
- 00:35:44that is represented in that day's
- 00:35:46fluctuation for instance Apex Legends
- 00:35:49the size of its player Cycles represents
- 00:35:52about 75% of its maximum player counts
- 00:35:55pubg about 82% DOTA 57% rust 50% and
- 00:36:02what's fascinating is that this
- 00:36:04percentage is robustly consistent
- 00:36:06varying very slightly regardless of the
- 00:36:09time of year regardless of game updates
- 00:36:11Etc this holds true even after major
- 00:36:14game updates where the volume of players
- 00:36:16changes drastically for example Apex
- 00:36:19Legends saw a massive update back in
- 00:36:22February doubling the player count but
- 00:36:24the size of its player Cycles still
- 00:36:26represents a about 75% of the peak
- 00:36:29player counts and this makes sense you
- 00:36:32should expect for the proportion of
- 00:36:34daily activity to scale with the volume
- 00:36:36of humans engaging with your game adding
- 00:36:39or removing players would not change the
- 00:36:41proportion of people that fall into
- 00:36:43General sleeping patterns and we are
- 00:36:46extremely fortunate to have teamwork.
- 00:36:48tf's player numbers again those player
- 00:36:51counts are mostly human so we can use
- 00:36:54teamwork. tf's player Cycles as a tool
- 00:36:57to estimate tf2's true player count
- 00:37:00let's take a look at a more recent
- 00:37:01week's worth of data teamwork. tf's
- 00:37:04player fluctuations represent about 50%
- 00:37:07of its daily Peak player counts we
- 00:37:09should expect for this value to be the
- 00:37:11same if we look at steam's player Cycles
- 00:37:14again the size of player Cycles should
- 00:37:16scale up with an increasing volume of
- 00:37:19humans so if we lump all of the humans
- 00:37:21on the main menu or trading what have
- 00:37:23you with the humans inside of Game
- 00:37:26servers that percentage AG should remain
- 00:37:28at around 50% but it doesn't steam's
- 00:37:32fluctuations represent a mere 16% of its
- 00:37:36total player counts this reinforces that
- 00:37:38steam's numbers are massively inflated
- 00:37:41by a bunch of accounts that never go
- 00:37:42offline again raising that minimum
- 00:37:45Baseline of online accounts shifting
- 00:37:47that player curve upwards so how far do
- 00:37:50I need to shift steam's numbers down to
- 00:37:53reach that figure of 50% about 48,000
- 00:37:57accounts need to go away so that tells
- 00:38:00me right now about 70% of steam's
- 00:38:04reported player account is
- 00:38:08Bots this is a conservative estimate
- 00:38:10given that I can't reliably account for
- 00:38:12Bots inside of Game servers and the
- 00:38:14trickiest part about this process is
- 00:38:16that you can't get an exact number of
- 00:38:18bots at any time that's impossible and
- 00:38:21educated but ballpark estimate is the
- 00:38:23best we can do masterc the source code
- 00:38:25wizard that I'm sure some of y'all are
- 00:38:27famili with wrote a tool that apparently
- 00:38:29detects botting activity they've only
- 00:38:31ever given one public estimate of about
- 00:38:3320 to 30,000 Bots from this tool from a
- 00:38:36couple years ago but this appears to
- 00:38:37only capture known bot and cheater
- 00:38:40accounts so it's an incomplete estimate
- 00:38:43Additionally the ratio of bots to humans
- 00:38:46changes throughout the year from dayto
- 00:38:48day even as bot Nets of various sizes
- 00:38:50come and go for example if I go back to
- 00:38:52say the first week of February teamwork.
- 00:38:55tf's player Cycles are still pretty much
- 00:38:57much the same still representing 50% of
- 00:39:00the daily Peaks but steam's data is very
- 00:39:03different here steam's player counts are
- 00:39:05much higher with the daily player Cycles
- 00:39:08now representing only 12% of the daily
- 00:39:11peaks in this case I need to knock off
- 00:39:14about 70,000 accounts in order for it to
- 00:39:17reach that 50% during this week about
- 00:39:2080% of steam's player count was bots in
- 00:39:25general as a very generous IM in favor
- 00:39:28of players tf2's true player count
- 00:39:30likely hovers around 25 to 30,000 humans
- 00:39:34on any given day this is still pretty
- 00:39:36good for a now almost 17-year-old game
- 00:39:39but that player count reported by steam
- 00:39:41is mostly Bots and if this doesn't
- 00:39:43concern you as a tf2 fan if I have yet
- 00:39:46to convince you that TF2 is heavily
- 00:39:49boded I'm sorry and I really am saying
- 00:39:51this with a heavy heart because it makes
- 00:39:53me sad as well but it's about to get
- 00:39:55worse a lot worse
- 00:40:02[Music]
- 00:40:07December 21st
- 00:40:092023 tf2's player count was around
- 00:40:1269,000 players less than 36 hours later
- 00:40:16the player count triples to nearly
- 00:40:20216,000 2 weeks after the Smith SMI
- 00:40:24update launched there was a patch on
- 00:40:26this day but I seriously doubt
- 00:40:29increasing the size of the frog on
- 00:40:31Carrier brought out 147,000 new players
- 00:40:35Devil's Advocate says this could be a
- 00:40:37bunch of people being let off for the
- 00:40:38holidays but no other games see a
- 00:40:41proportional spiking players at this
- 00:40:43time which is what you would expect if
- 00:40:44this was the case well the devil now
- 00:40:46says well you just got a bunch of people
- 00:40:48coming online to unbox the new case
- 00:40:50after the update came out that would be
- 00:40:52believable if it wasn't 2 weeks after
- 00:40:55the update launched and then January 7th
- 00:40:592024 50,000 accounts go offline in mere
- 00:41:04minutes the same day when the smithi
- 00:41:07update ended the same hour the update
- 00:41:10ended you honestly can't expect me to
- 00:41:13believe that more than onethird of all
- 00:41:16reported players at the time suddenly
- 00:41:18decided to log off all at once no steam
- 00:41:20outages no server issues no vac waves
- 00:41:24just gone what you're looking at are
- 00:41:27massive botn Nets firing up during the
- 00:41:30smithi update specifically to harvest
- 00:41:32the new item cases and as I mentioned
- 00:41:35earlier gift Ault drops during their
- 00:41:37most popular time window of use huge
- 00:41:39chunks of bots sporadically disappear
- 00:41:41about 40,000 Bots right here for example
- 00:41:44and then finally when the smithi update
- 00:41:46ends the remaining 50,000 all go offline
- 00:41:50there's no sense in running these Bots
- 00:41:51anymore if players aren't logging on
- 00:41:53getting their stockings and then using
- 00:41:55the gift Ault to send a gift I also
- 00:41:57doubt this was someone at valve Banning
- 00:41:59the accounts because they can't even
- 00:42:01properly Implement a hat or a map these
- 00:42:03days not to mention as discussed earlier
- 00:42:05they tend to ban these bot Farms before
- 00:42:08the updates come out so they can't
- 00:42:09exploit the free items and you know what
- 00:42:12it makes sense to run bot Farms of this
- 00:42:14magnitude you collect and sell cases
- 00:42:16when they're more popular and if your
- 00:42:18Bots make up more than 2third of all
- 00:42:20players you're getting more than 2third
- 00:42:22of all gift Ault drops because they're
- 00:42:24delivered to any random online account
- 00:42:26you don't need to be inside of Game
- 00:42:28servers oh what not good enough for you
- 00:42:31all right let's compare steam's data to
- 00:42:33teamwork. tf's data during the Smith
- 00:42:362023 update if that Spike of 216,000
- 00:42:40players on December 21st was comprised
- 00:42:42of at least some human activity we
- 00:42:45should see some spiking players inside
- 00:42:48of Game servers and enjoying the new
- 00:42:50content right nope throughout the entire
- 00:42:54month of December from the launch of the
- 00:42:55mismas update to it final day player
- 00:42:58behavior is stagnant no increase when
- 00:43:02all those accounts come online on the
- 00:43:0321st and no decrease when they all drop
- 00:43:06offline on the 7th hell we don't even
- 00:43:09see much of a bump in players when the
- 00:43:10update launches it didn't even surpass
- 00:43:13the normal player numbers that happen
- 00:43:14over a weekend that's pretty [ __ ] sad
- 00:43:17and to back this up masterc coms raised
- 00:43:19an alarm about gift Ault Harvesters as
- 00:43:21well 5 days after those 147,000 accounts
- 00:43:26came online they saw the exact same
- 00:43:29behavior no appreciable spacking players
- 00:43:32only in boding activity and that's the
- 00:43:34nail on the coffin Not only was the
- 00:43:36smithi 2023 update massively botted but
- 00:43:39that player peak of
- 00:43:41216,000 players wasn't even close to
- 00:43:44being real I'm sorry but how in the hell
- 00:43:48am I supposed to believe any player
- 00:43:49Peaks anymore I simply used to take
- 00:43:51these at face value and think to myself
- 00:43:54wow the game's doing really well but now
- 00:43:56that I've seen Bing activity of this
- 00:43:58magnitude during a lackluster smithm
- 00:44:01update are any previous spikes in
- 00:44:04players real was the all-time player
- 00:44:06peak of
- 00:44:08254,000 players even close to being real
- 00:44:13no I don't think so and sadly I can't
- 00:44:16get highresolution data from Steam
- 00:44:18around the time of previous major
- 00:44:19updates I've only been recording myself
- 00:44:22since December but thankfully I have
- 00:44:23other pieces of useful information the
- 00:44:25one thing I could find from around the
- 00:44:27summer update was this screenshot of a
- 00:44:29game Journal article of that
- 00:44:31highresolution data I can roughly
- 00:44:34estimate the time during the update by
- 00:44:35drawing a bar that represents a day and
- 00:44:38then using that as a ruler this right
- 00:44:40here is a daily cycle so I can use that
- 00:44:42as my reference if I look at the initial
- 00:44:44jump in players the player count almost
- 00:44:47instantly doubles it looks like about
- 00:44:4975,000 players log on over the course of
- 00:44:523 hours that's suspicious but could
- 00:44:54easily be handwaved away as the initial
- 00:44:56jump jumping players logging on for the
- 00:44:58hype fine but then about 10 hours later
- 00:45:02a patch releases seemingly knocking
- 00:45:04those same 75,000 accounts offline oddly
- 00:45:08familiar to maintenance day we have a
- 00:45:10couple of hours of otherwise normal
- 00:45:12activity so to speak and then suddenly a
- 00:45:15100,000 accounts snap back online yeah
- 00:45:19[ __ ] me if that doesn't look like
- 00:45:21botting activity where botn Nets got
- 00:45:23rapidly turned back on after that patch
- 00:45:25came out but I can go even further I can
- 00:45:28compare the player data from teamwork.
- 00:45:30TF with the downsample data that we do
- 00:45:33have from Steam sadly teamwork. TF has a
- 00:45:36lot of missing data around this time but
- 00:45:38with the data we do have we do see a
- 00:45:40bump in players after the update comes
- 00:45:42out but hilariously and somewhat
- 00:45:44depressingly player counts aren't that
- 00:45:47different than what we see during
- 00:45:48previous year's updates of any kind not
- 00:45:51to mention the number of players
- 00:45:53reported inside of Game servers isn't
- 00:45:55even remotely similar in magnitude to
- 00:45:58what we see in steam's data no more than
- 00:46:0110% of what's being reported during that
- 00:46:03initial jump in players and just like
- 00:46:06the smithm update when all of those
- 00:46:08players drop offline from Steam we see
- 00:46:11none of that reflected inside of server
- 00:46:13activity player counts do remain
- 00:46:15slightly elevated during this time but
- 00:46:17they're entirely stagnant so that tells
- 00:46:20me none of the activity reported by
- 00:46:22steam was human otherwise it would have
- 00:46:25been reflected even somewhat but
- 00:46:27reflected inside of the human activity
- 00:46:29we see inside of Game servers I think I
- 00:46:31can firmly conclude that the summer
- 00:46:33update was massively botted that player
- 00:46:36peak of 254,000 players wasn't even
- 00:46:41close to being real and what about
- 00:46:43previous updates summer 2021 same story
- 00:46:48huge spikes in players on Steam but a
- 00:46:50very slight uptick in humans inside of
- 00:46:52Game servers about the same amount we
- 00:46:54saw in 2023 some 2022 even worse zero
- 00:47:00uptick in human activity smithi 2021
- 00:47:04another massive Spike on Steam but the
- 00:47:06number of players in Game servers
- 00:47:08doesn't even break what's normally seen
- 00:47:10on a weekend smithi 2022 another massive
- 00:47:14Spike on Steam but absolutely no change
- 00:47:17in the number of players inside of Game
- 00:47:18servers Scream Fortress well generally
- 00:47:21we do see a very slight uptick in the
- 00:47:23number of players in servers humans are
- 00:47:25more incentivized to play at this time
- 00:47:27because of contracts and rewards but
- 00:47:29just like summer 2023 the spike in
- 00:47:32players on Steam was insane peing at
- 00:47:35just over 200,000 players but almost
- 00:47:39zero noticeable Spike was seen in the
- 00:47:42players inside of Game servers given
- 00:47:45that almost zero human activity is
- 00:47:47reflected inside of Game servers during
- 00:47:49every single update I think I can at the
- 00:47:52very least pose the possibility that
- 00:47:55pretty much every major update for TF2
- 00:47:58is botted to high hell and one final
- 00:48:00thing to note if I look at the entire
- 00:48:02record from teamwork. TF over the last 3
- 00:48:06years player numbers have been stable no
- 00:48:09tangible growth but no tangible decline
- 00:48:12either whereas on Steam we see continued
- 00:48:15steady growth since 2018 if this were
- 00:48:19truly the case shouldn't we expect to
- 00:48:21see that growth reflected in server
- 00:48:23activity we don't so this suggests at
- 00:48:26least for me that much of tf2's growth
- 00:48:29after jungle Inferno has been driven by
- 00:48:31increasing bot activity not new players
- 00:48:34as valve gradually started giving less
- 00:48:36of a [ __ ] as the years went by they
- 00:48:38don't ban Idol Bots anymore let alone
- 00:48:40any cheater Bots resulting in heavily
- 00:48:43inflated player numbers seems like
- 00:48:45that's been the case for many years now
- 00:48:47heavily implying that roughly the same
- 00:48:50amount of people have been playing TF2
- 00:48:52for the greater part of the past decade
- 00:48:54about 25 to 30,000 people
- 00:49:01[Music]
- 00:49:06while I may not have direct confirmation
- 00:49:08from the mouths of Bot holters as to how
- 00:49:10many Bots are running at one time I have
- 00:49:12presented strong evidence that TF2 is
- 00:49:15heavily boded we have evidence in tf2's
- 00:49:18own player counts evidence from traders
- 00:49:21that botn Nets exist and operate at huge
- 00:49:23scales word from valve that they've
- 00:49:25dealt with huge botn Nets in the past
- 00:49:28Bots correlation of identical behavior
- 00:49:31in other video games that are well known
- 00:49:33to be botted evidence from that massive
- 00:49:35discrepancy between Steam and the mostly
- 00:49:38human player activity inside of Game
- 00:49:40servers and the clear as day evidence
- 00:49:43that pretty much every major update over
- 00:49:46the last 3 years has been massively
- 00:49:48boded I can firmly conclude that a large
- 00:49:51majority of tf2's player count as
- 00:49:53reported by steam at any time are Bots
- 00:49:57mostly idlers we cannot trust any player
- 00:50:01numbers let alone player Peaks being
- 00:50:03reported by steam that's the main
- 00:50:05takeaway from this video not an exact
- 00:50:08number of bots in TF2 again that's
- 00:50:10impossible but rather the observation
- 00:50:13that about 70 to 80% of tf2's player
- 00:50:16count as reported by steam is not human
- 00:50:21thing is we only feel about 3% of those
- 00:50:24Bots the cheaters idlers don't impact
- 00:50:27the gameplay experience unless you're
- 00:50:29involved in tf2's relatively small micro
- 00:50:31economy but another major takeaway from
- 00:50:34this video is that my work here shows
- 00:50:36how that 3% of bots can [ __ ] the game
- 00:50:39with so few real players inside of valve
- 00:50:42servers it really doesn't take much to
- 00:50:44cause a headache all right let's exhale
- 00:50:47for a moment here this has been a long
- 00:50:49video with a lot of information to
- 00:50:50process that I guarantee isn't making
- 00:50:53people feel very good you're not meant
- 00:50:54to feel good after this video You're
- 00:50:56meant to be informed and not really sure
- 00:50:59how to close this out but it wouldn't be
- 00:51:01a video on my channel if I didn't give
- 00:51:03some thoughts of my own so I'll do that
- 00:51:05now from my point of view a lack of
- 00:51:08growth makes perfect sense for TF2 I've
- 00:51:11been playing TF2 since launch I've seen
- 00:51:13every single thing that this game has
- 00:51:15been through why on Earth would anyone
- 00:51:18have expected for TF2 to grow after 2018
- 00:51:23in 2016 TF2 left its worst update behind
- 00:51:26itself meet your match which alienated
- 00:51:29countless players thanks to the horrific
- 00:51:31matchmaking system and of course all the
- 00:51:33other changes valve made with zero
- 00:51:35thought didn't even ask us didn't even
- 00:51:37test anything well they did the beta but
- 00:51:38that was basically nothing and then
- 00:51:40whoop There You Go they dumped that in
- 00:51:41our laps and that was it in the two
- 00:51:43years following players were begging
- 00:51:46praying for some kind of a change a roll
- 00:51:48back something to make that dumpster
- 00:51:50fire of an update just a little bit more
- 00:51:52bearable we thought that was going to
- 00:51:54come in 2017 when jungle and Inferno
- 00:51:56came around players came back in droves
- 00:51:59for that update but once everyone
- 00:52:01realized that the game was going to stay
- 00:52:03as is players left in droves entering
- 00:52:072019 TF2 saw its lowest player counts
- 00:52:11since the game went free to play and
- 00:52:13then in the following years TF2 was
- 00:52:16completely abandoned gradually flooded
- 00:52:18by Bots and cheaters anti-consumer
- 00:52:21practices punishing freeo place which
- 00:52:23valve absolutely profits from mediocre
- 00:52:25at best to terrible at worst content
- 00:52:28assuming it functioned sure TF2 is free
- 00:52:30TF2 is fun but when you have all of this
- 00:52:33going against it and the fact that it's
- 00:52:36unplayable for half the day more than
- 00:52:38half the day why in the hell would we
- 00:52:41expect for players let alone new players
- 00:52:43to stick around and then make the Game
- 00:52:45grow it makes no sense you see that to
- 00:52:49me reinforces the validity behind tf2's
- 00:52:52true player count being far far smaller
- 00:52:55than what we see on Ste
- 00:52:57and if I dare may be as so bold as to be
- 00:52:59even more candid what's interesting at
- 00:53:01least for me is that for anyone who
- 00:53:04doesn't play TF2 the game looks totally
- 00:53:07fine the vocal spheres surrounding TF2
- 00:53:10are very misleading I'm not saying
- 00:53:12they're doing this intentionally it's
- 00:53:14simply the nature of people being able
- 00:53:15to ignore or edit out all of the bad TF2
- 00:53:18experiences so we have massive YouTube
- 00:53:22channels making videos with millions of
- 00:53:24views countless viral posts and art and
- 00:53:27memes what have you that make it seem as
- 00:53:29if though Team Fortress 2 is this
- 00:53:31flourishing game where everything is
- 00:53:34totally fine Team Fortress 2 the game
- 00:53:37everyone loves talking about but as I've
- 00:53:39shown not that many people play so as a
- 00:53:42result we have this overly positive
- 00:53:45often times toxically positive
- 00:53:47misleading picture painted by the
- 00:53:49discourse surrounding TF2 it's basically
- 00:53:52taboo to say anything remotely negative
- 00:53:55about this game you you can't even call
- 00:53:57an objectively terrible weapon skin
- 00:53:59stinky without a bigger figure strong
- 00:54:02arming their way into the discourse and
- 00:54:03trying to shut you down I don't know
- 00:54:06what causes this perhaps itms peer
- 00:54:08pressure to remain positive all the time
- 00:54:10because it's good for your brand or
- 00:54:12ignorance is bliss I don't know but no
- 00:54:14one talks about the Bots no one makes
- 00:54:17videos about the Bots if you only watch
- 00:54:19TF2 YouTube videos or God forbid
- 00:54:22consumed TF2 Twitter and Reddit and
- 00:54:24didn't play the game you'd have no no
- 00:54:26idea how bad things really are it's
- 00:54:29almost an afterthought like the Bots
- 00:54:30aren't even here and for some reason
- 00:54:33it's frowned upon to talk about the Bots
- 00:54:35if you address the problem people either
- 00:54:38dismiss you outright or get mad at you
- 00:54:40they tell you to stop being negative or
- 00:54:42nothing will change so just shut up
- 00:54:44about it if any other game were flooded
- 00:54:46by Bots and cheaters rendering it
- 00:54:48unplayable CS2 Apex Legends pick any
- 00:54:51other popular game there would be
- 00:54:53[ __ ] riots in fact that's happening
- 00:54:55right now with CS2 valve is royally
- 00:54:58[ __ ] their biggest Money Maker aside
- 00:55:01from Steam and people are fed up and yet
- 00:55:03for some reason TF2 fans are just
- 00:55:07complacent they keep giving valve money
- 00:55:09and praising this game despite their
- 00:55:11game being unplayable for half the day
- 00:55:14praising every little thing that comes
- 00:55:15their way regardless of quality or care
- 00:55:18there is no solution to this problem or
- 00:55:20any other problem other than to speak up
- 00:55:23about it because as consumers that's all
- 00:55:25we can do that's what I've been doing on
- 00:55:27my channel for years now in regards to
- 00:55:30this game and that's why I made this
- 00:55:32video I believe it's important for
- 00:55:34everyone to understand the reality of
- 00:55:36TF2 situation because no one says it so
- 00:55:40I'll state it plainly the reality is
- 00:55:42that TF2 the game is not thriving it's
- 00:55:47up shits Creek and has been for many
- 00:55:49years now TF2 faces abhorent neglect
- 00:55:53resulting in a plague of cheaters and
- 00:55:55Bots for which valve absolutely keeps
- 00:55:58track of and has the resources to
- 00:56:00address but thus far they've willingly
- 00:56:03chosen not to I strongly doubt they
- 00:56:06can't combat publicly available sheets
- 00:56:09that you can download after a simple
- 00:56:11Google search I seriously doubt they
- 00:56:14can't take some kind of action the
- 00:56:16multi-billion dollar company can't
- 00:56:19handle a few guys in their basement oh
- 00:56:21well sorry guys we're stretched too thin
- 00:56:23right now so have another hat box that
- 00:56:26that's just pathetic there is no excuse
- 00:56:29for this and if anyone dares to utter
- 00:56:31the phrase treadmill work [ __ ] off
- 00:56:33because 90% of the jobs in the world are
- 00:56:36treadmill work it's valve's
- 00:56:38responsibility to maintain this game so
- 00:56:41long as it's being offered is playable
- 00:56:42with incentivized microtransactions yet
- 00:56:45they consistently fail to meet their
- 00:56:47responsibilities despite TF2 earning
- 00:56:50them tens of millions of dollars a year
- 00:56:53Millions earned by simply copying and
- 00:56:55pasting often time times mediocre
- 00:56:57content they don't even make content
- 00:56:59they don't even ensure is functional
- 00:57:01which in tandem with Bots results in
- 00:57:03consistently buggy broken and unplayable
- 00:57:06updates that's been the status quo for
- 00:57:09seven no almost 8 years the onetime
- 00:57:13concert event that amounted to a self-
- 00:57:15congratulatory circle jerk praising how
- 00:57:17much we love TF2 isn't going to do
- 00:57:20anything safe TF2 was like trying to
- 00:57:22tell the fire department that your house
- 00:57:24is burning down by screaming how much
- 00:57:26you love your house instead of telling
- 00:57:28them hey my house is burning down and
- 00:57:31even though I know for a fact valve will
- 00:57:34continue to do nothing here's the right
- 00:57:36way to handle this consistently and
- 00:57:38directly address the problem tell valve
- 00:57:41email them tweet at them make a video
- 00:57:43something speak TF2 is full of bots we
- 00:57:47cannot play it fix your [ __ ] game or
- 00:57:51I'm not your customer anymore I know
- 00:57:53that from this point forward I'm not
- 00:57:54spending a dime on this game or any
- 00:57:56other Valve game until something changes
- 00:57:58and if anyone watching this seriously
- 00:58:01wants valve to do something I suggest
- 00:58:03you all do the same by spending money on
- 00:58:05TF2 you're telling valve that this is
- 00:58:09acceptable and financially incentivizing
- 00:58:11them to keep things as they are speak
- 00:58:13with your mouths and with your wallets I
- 00:58:16can't reinforce that enough on this
- 00:58:18channel I love this game and I want
- 00:58:20nothing more than for it to thrive but
- 00:58:22valve has shown zero interest in
- 00:58:25addressing TF2 biggest problems but they
- 00:58:27will happily keep taking our money and
- 00:58:29that is some 100% grade A horseshit
- 00:58:38[Music]
- 00:58:54[Music]
- 00:59:04[Music]
- 00:59:29well this sucks
- Team Fortress 2
- TF2
- bots
- player count
- Valve
- gaming
- cheaters
- traders
- idlers
- community action