00:00:00
you have Mr naenia uh the permanent
00:00:02
representative of Russia at the UN at
00:00:04
the security Council exposing what many
00:00:06
people aren't talking about that the US
00:00:08
is also occupying Syria so I want to ask
00:00:10
you you know with this C counter
00:00:12
offensive coming Russia will be a big
00:00:14
part of it we know Iran has also vowed
00:00:17
assistance if Syria asks for it the
00:00:19
Iraqi popular mobilization forces are on
00:00:22
their way Syrian Arab Army and Russia
00:00:25
trying to hold things back so I want to
00:00:28
ask you Pepe when this counter offensive
00:00:31
does launch what can and will Russia and
00:00:34
Syria do because last time they had to
00:00:37
deal with this it was a very intense and
00:00:41
uh uh in long duration air campaign do
00:00:44
we see the same thing
00:00:46
happening can you imagine Danny and all
00:00:49
of you that they're going to have to
00:00:52
reconquer Aleppo
00:00:54
again it took Years to reconquer
00:00:58
reconquer all parts of Al to pacify
00:01:01
Aleppo and then aleo started to develop
00:01:04
again H you know the uh the the Suk
00:01:09
which is probably in my opinion the most
00:01:11
beautiful Most Fascinating Suk in West
00:01:13
Asia for centuries was rebuilt most of
00:01:18
it was rebuilt all the area between the
00:01:21
Suk and the Citadel was there was you
00:01:23
know pristine again and now they're
00:01:26
goingon to have to fight all these um
00:01:30
Al-Qaeda remnants derivatives cryptos or
00:01:35
or whatever all over again and from a
00:01:38
very unfavorable
00:01:40
position uh Russia is very very
00:01:44
complicated situation because what there
00:01:46
were several
00:01:48
objectives behind this um lightning
00:01:52
strike attack against aleo one of them
00:01:56
we already touched upon it's cutting off
00:02:00
the lines of communication between Iran
00:02:04
and Hezbollah passing through Syria
00:02:08
another one to basically divide and Rule
00:02:12
and
00:02:13
so Division and mistrust extreme
00:02:17
mistrust between tan and anara that's
00:02:22
that that was one of the US NATO Israel
00:02:25
objectives as well and the third one
00:02:28
from the Russian point of view is very
00:02:30
very
00:02:31
worrying because it would we don't know
00:02:35
how this is going to play out it would
00:02:38
force Russia to
00:02:40
transfer mostly Aerospace assets from
00:02:45
Nova Ria from the B the proxy war in
00:02:48
Ukraine to Syria if they want to if you
00:02:51
want to make sure that they're going to
00:02:53
keep
00:02:53
Syria very very woring number I was
00:02:57
checking this a few minutes ago do you
00:03:00
know that the salafi Jihadi Brigade is
00:03:03
only 40 kilomet away from the Russian M
00:03:09
base in Syria Air Base so obviously
00:03:13
they're looking at this in Moscow and
00:03:15
they're starting now they are shaking a
00:03:18
little bit in their boots there's no
00:03:19
question about that they con you know
00:03:22
These Guys these salafi jihadist could
00:03:24
start throwing a grad missiles against
00:03:27
the Russian base Sly and then wait for
00:03:30
the Russian reaction because with what
00:03:33
they have at the moment I'm not sure
00:03:35
they have
00:03:37
enough they're gonna have to there's
00:03:39
gonna have to be they gonna have to be a
00:03:41
lot of
00:03:42
Antonov Landing in in lakia for instance
00:03:47
to re you know bolster Russian Russian
00:03:50
forces and that brings us to what
00:03:52
happened um yesterday um uh Danny very
00:03:56
very interesting you know what happened
00:03:57
yesterday erdogan picked up the phone
00:04:00
and called yeah Vladimir Putin yes we
00:04:04
were uh before that you know during the
00:04:07
weekend and early this week we were all
00:04:09
debating how is he going to explain to
00:04:14
Putin that this whole thing happened
00:04:17
because of the Americans because of the
00:04:19
Israelis and know that in Turkey had
00:04:21
nothing to do with it which by the way
00:04:25
was the version of his foreign minister
00:04:29
hakan fidan he's a very serious guy he
00:04:33
has presidential um ideas in his head
00:04:37
for the future but he's a competent
00:04:39
foreign minister at least so
00:04:41
far and he was the former head of Intel
00:04:46
of
00:04:48
MIT Turkish Intel how curious is that so
00:04:53
hakan fidal now as a diplomat will say
00:04:55
look we we disapprove everything that's
00:04:58
going on we have nothing to do with this
00:05:01
right at the same time they express
00:05:04
their support between commas to the
00:05:08
Syrian opposition so what is it once
00:05:11
again erdogan haging obviously right so
00:05:15
coming back to the phone call erdogan
00:05:17
picks up the phone he calls ping and
00:05:19
according to the leaks that we had you
00:05:23
know what the what erdogan was talking
00:05:25
about R uh tur turkey Russia economic
00:05:29
relations geoeconomic relations
00:05:32
including
00:05:33
Syria so basically this was a way of a
00:05:37
very widly way from erdogan's part to
00:05:42
tell Putin look uh we're going to have
00:05:45
to negotiate a lot of things including
00:05:47
our presence now in Northwest uh
00:05:52
Syria uh can you offer us something
00:05:56
extra in our geoeconomic relations
00:05:59
consider considering that Russia for
00:06:01
Russia turkey is very important in terms
00:06:04
of being the bridge between Russia and
00:06:07
the West most of it is via turkey now
00:06:12
and every time that I go to Istanbul I
00:06:14
see this in you see this in front of you
00:06:17
everywhere the number of Russian
00:06:19
tourists the facilities for Russians who
00:06:22
are investing in in turkey or Turks who
00:06:24
want to invest in Russia you know the
00:06:27
they by bipartisan committees here and
00:06:30
there uh the fact that still the best
00:06:33
way uh from Europe to to reach Moscow is
00:06:37
via Istanbul so Turkish Airlines they
00:06:39
are making fortunes with this whole
00:06:42
story uh and all of us are victims now
00:06:44
because they jack up their prices so you
00:06:47
know the both economies are very
00:06:50
interconnected and of course Russian
00:06:53
investments in Russia in Turkey sorry
00:06:56
building uh nuclear plants selling
00:06:58
energy Etc so uh Whiley erdogan is
00:07:02
trying to renegotiate some of this in
00:07:05
better terms for um turkey and implicit
00:07:10
in all that is that no nothing's going
00:07:13
to happen to lataka and my my mean we
00:07:18
have nothing against you of course we
00:07:20
could not control all these terrorists
00:07:22
we don't like these terrorist and all
00:07:23
that and obviously erdogan is not
00:07:25
thinking about idlib and Aleppo he's
00:07:28
thinking about the
00:07:30
Kurds because the Kurds are the big big
00:07:33
internal domestic problem for for for
00:07:36
turkey so we can imagine more or less
00:07:41
what they discussed but I'm not sure
00:07:43
Putin was
00:07:45
convinced uh with this phone call that
00:07:48
uh um MIT turkey's MIT their
00:07:51
intelligence
00:07:53
Services um obviously they were in they
00:07:57
are they were and they are they will
00:07:58
continue to be implicated to to their
00:08:01
medullas in all this story so how can
00:08:06
Russia realistically
00:08:09
preserve the basis very very important
00:08:13
uh the connections the commercial GE
00:08:16
economic connections with turkey as well
00:08:18
without
00:08:19
um smashing the whole thing from the
00:08:22
point of view of puting in fact erdogan
00:08:26
is a
00:08:26
traitor so what happened from the point
00:08:29
of of of not only Putin but I would say
00:08:32
the security Council they look at what
00:08:33
happened they say the Turks just broke
00:08:36
the aana process and the a process is
00:08:41
Russia turkey Iran how can they trust
00:08:44
turkey after what happened so there we
00:08:46
can say that they a pro process for
00:08:50
there's going to be a meeting in Qatar
00:08:52
before the end of the week I I don't
00:08:53
think this is going to go anywhere the
00:08:55
aana process as we knew it for the past
00:08:58
few years until last week now it's dead
00:09:01
they're going to have to start all over
00:09:03
again so very very important as well in
00:09:06
Big Picture
00:09:08
terms we have a bricks partner turkey
00:09:12
betraying two top bricks at the same
00:09:15
time Russia and
00:09:17
Iran there will be
00:09:21
consequences it's too early of course we
00:09:24
don't know how this is going to develop
00:09:26
but we can imagine that from now on the
00:09:28
Russians are going to start thinking two
00:09:30
times or three times at 10 times
00:09:33
before in fact signing or agree with uh
00:09:37
with turkey on anything especially Syria
00:09:41
and of course in terms of the AIS of
00:09:43
resistance it's the a mega mega mega
00:09:46
extra problem because of course the the
00:09:50
whole uh chess board in West Asia is
00:09:54
metastasizing into a giant war in fact a
00:09:59
giant
00:10:00
unified War it's not little Wars here
00:10:03
and there no it's a giant unified War
00:10:09
that's why I I already started to
00:10:12
qualify it alongside one of my dear
00:10:16
analyst friends from the global sou um
00:10:20
website as the first bricks War this is
00:10:24
something that we we're going we're
00:10:26
going to need to develop further
00:10:30
in our next columns and podcasts Etc
00:10:33
because it pits
00:10:35
essentially the usual NATO stand against
00:10:38
Eurasia great confrontation of the 21st
00:10:43
century but now subdivided into NATO
00:10:46
Stan and Israel on one side with the
00:10:49
support of NATO member turkey which is
00:10:52
also a bricks partner mostly against
00:10:56
bricks Partners at the top at the
00:10:59
highest level Russia and Iran and we we
00:11:03
didn't even analyze the role of China
00:11:05
yet because China is watching from the
00:11:08
sidelines and I'm sure they are
00:11:10
horrified by everything that is
00:11:12
happening but there's absolutely nothing
00:11:15
they can do they could if they wanted to
00:11:18
help Syria and this is something many of
00:11:21
us started
00:11:22
discussing uh for the past two years at
00:11:26
least that
00:11:28
via uh their network of Investments and
00:11:32
even the new development Bank the NDB in
00:11:37
Shanghai China could have done more to
00:11:40
help Syria and reconstruction of Syria
00:11:44
so now this is all for the moment now
00:11:46
this is all dead let's see how China
00:11:49
reacts in practice to this salafi Jihadi
00:11:53
offensive in Syria but from the point of
00:11:55
view of U the dire situation for both
00:11:59
Iran and Russia at the moment wow
00:12:04
especially because uh there was not even
00:12:07
a discussion in Teran or in Moscow until
00:12:10
a few days ago that this might happen
00:12:12
and everybody knew that this was
00:12:14
a a nightmare you know just waiting to
00:12:18
happen and now that it's happened and
00:12:20
now there this is a tactical victory for
00:12:24
us NATO stun Israel and from the point
00:12:28
of view of Turkey extracting concessions
00:12:30
from both Iran and Russia let's see
00:12:34
what's going to happen next but um I
00:12:37
would say the prospects for both uh um
00:12:41
uh Denny are not very very very
00:12:44
auspicious to say the least can you
00:12:47
imagine there little bits of info that
00:12:51
start um uh for instance few minutes ago
00:12:56
can you believe that they captur a
00:12:59
Raider of one of the
00:13:02
s400s in a base in hamama this Raiders
00:13:06
is worth millions of dollars and now
00:13:10
it's uh in the possession of salafi
00:13:14
jihadis from greater Lian they can do
00:13:18
anything they want with it they could
00:13:20
even sell it to Turkey if they want
00:13:23
which would be probably their first move
00:13:25
or they could even sell it to Kiev don't
00:13:28
forget
00:13:29
that yes the factor exactly the lessons
00:13:34
that this HTS salafi Jihad is received
00:13:38
on everything scrambling communication
00:13:41
lines uh artificial intelligence
00:13:44
communication services and all that
00:13:46
ukrainians it was part of that famous
00:13:49
deal that they struck months ago if not
00:13:53
last year late last year okay we give
00:13:57
you everything that you need in terms of
00:13:59
launching on war and fpv drones kamikazi
00:14:04
drones how to operate drones we send you
00:14:07
instructors we bring you here to to
00:14:09
teach and you give us a lot of takis a
00:14:13
lot of salafi jihadis which are going to
00:14:15
ship to fight Russia in
00:14:18
Ukraine we are watching in front of us
00:14:21
the Practical consequences of this
00:14:25
deal obviously nobody thought about this
00:14:29
uh very very carefully and in depth in
00:14:33
Moscow and this is a direct criticism of
00:14:36
the the Russians asleep at the wheel on
00:14:38
Syria once again and this feeling in
00:14:43
Damascus and also in Moscow that ah we
00:14:48
froze the war four years ago these guys
00:14:50
are confined in idlib nothing is going
00:14:52
to happen after that we have a deal with
00:14:55
turkey theana process so everything is
00:14:57
frozen and was going to try to find a
00:15:00
solution later on no now it's too
00:15:04
late now it's too late they were
00:15:06
overtaken by facts on the ground and
00:15:08
these facts on the ground are very very
00:15:10
nasty let me repeat to you the key dates
00:15:13
it's in the start of my new column so
00:15:16
these three dates are very very
00:15:17
important because they they give you the
00:15:19
background story of why this invasion of
00:15:22
Aleppo happened on November 26 okay
00:15:25
November 18 the chief of shinb uh ronen
00:15:29
bar he meets with the heads of the MIT
00:15:33
Turkish intelligence very very important
00:15:37
one week later November
00:15:39
25th
00:15:41
NATO the new NATO GAA guda or Adam
00:15:46
depending on the Dutch cheese of your
00:15:48
preference Mark
00:15:49
rout he meets with erdogan in Pur what
00:15:54
happens November 26 the day after all
00:15:58
this a salafi
00:16:00
Jihadi M mat toxic Matrix let's put it
00:16:04
this way assembled by hayat Alan former
00:16:09
uh Nar from supported by Turkish Intel
00:16:14
weaponized by Turkish Intel trained by
00:16:18
Turkish Intel and all this immense
00:16:21
Coalition uh I call them the rent a
00:16:24
Jihadi Coalition in fact because these
00:16:27
are old alai new Al-Qaeda crypto alqaeda
00:16:31
reconverted from Isis you name it plus
00:16:34
new
00:16:36
recruits for hayat Alam because they
00:16:40
have an enormous recruiting Network all
00:16:43
the way from Turkey all the way to sing
00:16:46
J they H started their
00:16:50
striking their their strike their
00:16:52
Lightning Fast strike against Aleppo
00:16:56
especially uh so let let's say moving
00:16:59
greater
00:17:01
Idan from idlib to Aleppo provinces the
00:17:05
the provinces are contiguous right and
00:17:07
they took over most of alipo we can we
00:17:11
can say the first 48 hour in less than
00:17:13
48 hours they took three quarters of
00:17:17
Aleppo and the
00:17:19
surroundings so you know it was bound to
00:17:22
happen everybody
00:17:24
was um Everybody Must Have Been startled
00:17:28
across the global s but uh if you were
00:17:31
following Syria and if you were
00:17:33
following the complacency and if were
00:17:35
following the not the the fact that the
00:17:38
Syrian Arab Army uh was not upgraded was
00:17:42
not paying attention to the new rules of
00:17:44
War to drones fpv kamikazi drones
00:17:48
observation drones Etc you knew that
00:17:50
that was going to happen now obviously
00:17:52
the US and NATO were paying attention
00:17:54
and say okay this is our opening and and
00:17:59
of course the timing because this was
00:18:01
directly afterwards the so-called Seas
00:18:04
fire in um H in Lebanon which is not
00:18:09
exactly a c fire because it was already
00:18:11
broken I think as we speak over a 100
00:18:15
times by Israel correct me if I'm wrong
00:18:18
and of course uh Netanyahu on the record
00:18:23
saying on the record more than once that
00:18:27
uh the new Focus now is to concentrate
00:18:30
on the Iranian threat between kasas and
00:18:35
at the same time that he had already
00:18:37
warned Hezbollah once again that
00:18:40
anything that they do in terms of um H
00:18:43
the syrians do in terms of facilitating
00:18:46
transportation of um weapons and
00:18:48
missiles from Iran via Syria to
00:18:50
Hezbollah Iran Syria sorry would pay an
00:18:54
extremely high price so this is all
00:18:57
interconnected so what do we see in this
00:18:59
whole interconnection us NATO Turkish
00:19:02
Intel and
00:19:03
Israel there's no question that at
00:19:07
different levels and different
00:19:10
dispositions uh they organized uh
00:19:14
weaponized
00:19:15
financed just to give an idea to all of
00:19:18
you do you know that in this invasion of
00:19:21
Aleppo there was even a tank
00:19:26
division so can you imagine these uh
00:19:29
salafi Jihad is barely eating one Kebab
00:19:32
a day in it Le having access to a tank
00:19:35
division yes a tank Division and they
00:19:39
they organized the whole thing with at
00:19:40
least
00:19:42
15,000
00:19:43
15,000 very well trained salafi jihadist
00:19:47
jihadis sorry mostly
00:19:49
HTS hay Al sham so now what is a you
00:19:55
know let's say this is the the mini
00:19:59
answer to one of your questions what is
00:20:01
what what what are the Russians and the
00:20:04
syrians doing at the moment they're
00:20:06
starting to pick up the pieces if they
00:20:09
can of course as you mentioned uh this
00:20:13
line of defense that they
00:20:16
established uh okay earlier this week
00:20:18
was solidified basically this Tuesday
00:20:20
but it's still back and forth there lots
00:20:23
of battles along this line of defense
00:20:25
north of hamama but if you look at the
00:20:28
map it's moving all the time and there's
00:20:31
no security guaranteed for hamama and
00:20:34
then for from hamama to homes as well
00:20:37
because they can you know they can they
00:20:39
can do some
00:20:41
bypasses and then circumvent the this
00:20:45
this line and show up in homes south of
00:20:49
hammer so the situation in alipo and
00:20:53
from alipo dama is dire it's really it's
00:20:57
absolutely horrible
00:20:59
um one of the things that I I I try to
00:21:02
emphasize in my column as well that Wars
00:21:05
in West Asia they tend to be on the road
00:21:09
they are usually on the road Affairs so
00:21:11
if you control the key roads or key
00:21:13
highways this is what we need they are
00:21:18
HTS and the Renta Jihadi mob they
00:21:20
already control the M5 the M4 fact I
00:21:25
remember because I traveled these roads
00:21:26
many years ago at the times of Assad I
00:21:29
Cris I crisscross Syria so I remember I
00:21:32
still have these roads in my mind
00:21:34
including the road that goes through the
00:21:36
desert all the way to the Syria Iraqi
00:21:40
border so so if if you remember how they
00:21:43
are the importance of these roads of
00:21:46
course and how it's so easy to block
00:21:49
them if you wanted you know they blocked
00:21:50
the dm4 it was very very easy and now
00:21:53
they are trying to block the most
00:21:56
important Highway in Syria which is the
00:21:58
M5
00:21:59
alipo Damascus if they do that wow it's
00:22:03
going to be me even more of a mega
00:22:05
nightmare for the Russian uh the Syrian
00:22:09
Arab Army sorry
00:22:12
SAA okay there is let's say that there
00:22:15
is
00:22:15
a um an
00:22:18
incipient organization in terms of
00:22:21
trying to organize a counter
00:22:23
offensive uh the best forces Syria
00:22:26
forces the 25th Brigade
00:22:29
they already uh in the area around
00:22:33
Hama um uh the general the irgc general
00:22:38
gaffari which is uh very well known in
00:22:43
Iraq and in Iran and even in Syria as
00:22:46
the Butcher of Isis it was always always
00:22:51
um on the front line in the fight
00:22:53
against Isis uh he came from Iran as
00:22:56
well he's trying to organize uh sectors
00:22:59
of the uh resistance and counter
00:23:02
offensive several brigades from Iraq
00:23:06
from hash shabi the fatm Brigade The
00:23:10
fatm is very interesting because many of
00:23:12
them are Afghans I met these guys years
00:23:16
ago in um in Iran in fact and most of
00:23:20
them are Afghans Shiite Afghans very
00:23:24
very interesting and there are also
00:23:26
Christian brigades yid brigades from
00:23:29
Iraq so you we can see that there is the
00:23:32
beginning of an organization for a
00:23:34
counter offensive but for the moment the
00:23:36
situation is absolutely terrifying from
00:23:39
the point of view of Damascus and um the
00:23:43
Syrian Arab Army this does not say that
00:23:46
there's going to be regime change
00:23:48
tomorrow in Damascus no no we're very
00:23:50
far away from that but in terms of
00:23:53
conquest of territory if you look at the
00:23:56
map it's wow they conqu ConEd a great
00:23:59
deal of Aleppo Province so now they
00:24:01
control not only ID but also a great
00:24:04
deal of Aleppo Province and we're not
00:24:06
even talking about the Kurds which I'm
00:24:09
leaving this for uh my one of my next
00:24:12
columns the role of the Kurds which are
00:24:15
basically American Allies which means
00:24:19
they are basically NATO people as well
00:24:22
and some factions are fighting the
00:24:25
salafi jihadis and some are doing deal
00:24:28
with them and some are trying to press
00:24:31
the Syrian Arab Army for some extra
00:24:33
deals as well so so it's a mess it's
00:24:37
it's an absolute mess totally
00:24:39
predictable considering the major
00:24:42
strategic blundering 2020 of freezing a
00:24:46
war with nearly 100,000 terrorists
00:24:49
inside your own
00:24:51
Nation so that's that's the short
00:24:54
version Danny of what's going on
00:24:58
a
