Why Can't Third Parties Take Off?

00:03:29
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJTPPxF3xRI

Summary

TLDRIn the 2016 U.S. election, third-party candidates like Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party and Jill Stein of the Green Party hoped to capitalize on the high unfavorability ratings of the major party candidates. However, systemic challenges persist due to Duverger's Law, which suggests that in a winner-take-all electoral system, two major parties will dominate. Voters often choose to vote strategically for major candidates rather than risk a "wasted" vote on third-parties. Institutional barriers, such as the exclusion from presidential debates by the Commission on Presidential Debates, make it hard for third-party candidates to gain widespread attention. They're typically not included in polls and lack the robust fundraising abilities that major parties possess, making it difficult to qualify for federal funding, which requires 5% of votes in the previous election. Despite these obstacles, third-parties aim to influence national dialogue and raise awareness of their platforms, serving as potential voices for specific issues even if they can't achieve electoral success.

Takeaways

  • 🔍 Third-parties see 2016 as an opportunity due to high unfavorability of major candidates.
  • ⚖️ Duverger's Law explains the dominance of two parties in U.S. winner-take-all elections.
  • 🗳️ Voter behavior tends to favor major parties, marginalizing third-party efforts.
  • 📺 Presidential debates are key for exposure, yet third-parties often lack inclusion.
  • 💰 Fundraising challenges limit third-party campaign capabilities compared to major parties.
  • 🚫 Institutional barriers, like restrictive debate criteria, hinder third-party visibility.
  • 🎯 Third-parties focus on influencing dialogues and raising awareness, not just winning.
  • 🔗 Notable third-party influences include Teddy Roosevelt's progressivism and Ross Perot's debt concerns.
  • 🏛️ Federal funding requires 5% of the vote in previous elections, a challenging threshold for third-parties.
  • 🔄 Despite challenges, third-parties strive to grow support and presence election by election.

Timeline

  • 00:00:00 - 00:03:29

    In the 2016 election cycle, third-party candidates in the U.S. see a potential opportunity to make an impact due to the major party candidates having historically high unfavorability ratings, leading some voters to consider alternatives like Libertarian Gary Johnson or Green Party's Jill Stein. However, the likelihood of a third-party breakthrough remains extremely low. The U.S. electoral system, influenced by Duverger's Law, naturally leads to two major parties, as winner-take-all elections compel voter behavior to avoid 'wasting' votes on weaker parties, ultimately squeezing them out. This system forces voters to often vote 'against' rather than 'for' candidates based on congruent views.

Mind Map

Video Q&A

  • Why are there only two major parties in the U.S.?

    Due to Duverger's Law, in a winner-take-all electoral system, only two major parties tend to develop as weaker parties are squeezed out.

  • What is Duverger's Law?

    It's a principle that states in a winner-take-all electoral system, like in the U.S., two major parties will dominate over time.

  • Why is it difficult for third-party candidates to gain attention?

    Institutional barriers, such as exclusion from debates organized by the Commission on Presidential Debates, and lack of media coverage make it hard for them to gain visibility.

  • What role does money play in the challenges for third-parties?

    Third-parties lack the sophisticated fundraising operations that major parties have and usually do not have access to federal funding, making it difficult to compete.

  • Can third-parties influence U.S. politics without winning elections?

    Yes, third-party candidates like Teddy Roosevelt and Ross Perot influenced the national conversation with their ideas despite losing their elections.

  • What do third-parties consider a success in elections?

    For third-parties, success might mean gaining traction and raising awareness about their policies, even if they don't win elections.

  • What percentage of votes do third-parties need to qualify for federal funding?

    Third parties need to have gained 5% of the vote in the last election to qualify for federal funding.

  • How do voter behaviors influence third-party success?

    Voters tend to vote strategically for more viable major party candidates, rather than for third-parties they may align with more closely, leading to the marginalization of weaker parties.

  • Why didn't Jill Stein qualify for debates?

    Jill Stein didn't meet the qualifying criteria set by the Commission on Presidential Debates, which includes having 15% support in national polls.

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  • 00:00:00
    America's third-parties think 2016 could be their year.
  • 00:00:03
    And they might be on to something.
  • 00:00:04
    After all, in this electoral environment
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    where the major party candidates have seen
  • 00:00:08
    historically high unfavorability ratings
  • 00:00:10
    some voters may turn to alternatives,
  • 00:00:12
    like the Libertarian Party's Gary Johnson
  • 00:00:14
    or the Green Party's Jill Stein.
  • 00:00:16
    But, even if the stars all align for these candidates
  • 00:00:19
    the chances of a third-party breaking through
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    are slim to none.
  • 00:00:22
    So, the question is:
  • 00:00:23
    Why can't third-parties take off?
  • 00:00:26
    So first of all, why are there only
  • 00:00:28
    two major parties in the U.S.?
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    It's been that way for a long time.
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    According to something called Duverger's Law
  • 00:00:34
    in a country with winner-take-all elections
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    like the United States, two major parties
  • 00:00:39
    are bound to develop. Here's why:
  • 00:00:40
    Imagine a hypothetical winner-take-all election
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    in which a range of parties receive part of the vote.
  • 00:00:45
    Here, Party B wins the seat because it received
  • 00:00:47
    the most votes, even though the majority of voters
  • 00:00:49
    cast their ballots for other parties, against the winner.
  • 00:00:52
    Duverger's Law predicts that voters will see
  • 00:00:55
    that outcome and behave strategically
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    in subsequent elections,
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    deserting the weakest party for more viable options.
  • 00:01:00
    Over time, the weaker parties are squeezed out
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    leaving behind two major parties.
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    So, in other words:
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    you're not always voting for the candidate you like
  • 00:01:07
    or the one that really represents all of your views.
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    You're voting against the candidate you don't like.
  • 00:01:13
    Beyond voter behavior, there are institutional barriers
  • 00:01:16
    in the current election system that make it difficult
  • 00:01:19
    for third-party candidates to get more attention,
  • 00:01:21
    and thus votes.
  • 00:01:24
    Presidential debates are hugely important
  • 00:01:26
    for candidates looking to raise their national profiles.
  • 00:01:29
    Just look at what Donald Trump has been able to do
  • 00:01:31
    this year.
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    But, the only candidates that typically qualify
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    are Democrats and Republicans.
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    And who sets up the qualifying criteria?
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    A privately operated group called
  • 00:01:40
    the Commission on Presidential Debates
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    that's controlled by
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    other Republicans and Democrats.
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    Among other rules, the CPD says
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    the parties must get 15% support in
  • 00:01:49
    multiple national polls to qualify.
  • 00:01:51
    But, as the third-parties will tell you
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    it's tough to poll well when you don't have a large base,
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    you don't get a lot of media attention,
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    and sometimes you're not even
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    included in the polls at all!
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    Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson was only
  • 00:02:03
    just recently included in polls
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    and the Green Party's Jill Stein was arrested in 2012
  • 00:02:08
    for trying to attend a debate she didn't qualify for.
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    There's also the issue of money.
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    Big surprise, right?
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    Democrats and Republicans typically fundraise
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    like crazy to fund things like
  • 00:02:18
    campaign appearances,
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    advertising,
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    you name it.
  • 00:02:21
    But, third-parties don't have the same sophisticated
  • 00:02:23
    fundraising operations.
  • 00:02:25
    And just like voters
  • 00:02:26
    don't want to back a losing candidate,
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    neither do donors.
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    There is federal funding available,
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    but third parties would have had to reach 5% of the vote
  • 00:02:34
    in the last election in order to qualify for it.
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    Which means, even in a year where they could get
  • 00:02:39
    more support than ever before, they can't
  • 00:02:40
    do anything about the federal money.
  • 00:02:42
    All these challenges mean that third-parties
  • 00:02:44
    sometimes define winning differently than
  • 00:02:46
    Democrats or Republicans do.
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    For them, winning might mean gaining traction
  • 00:02:50
    in the electorate and giving voice to their party's
  • 00:02:52
    core principles.
  • 00:02:53
    Think of third-party candidates like
  • 00:02:55
    Teddy Roosevelt and Ross Perot
  • 00:02:57
    who lost their elections, but were able to influence
  • 00:02:59
    the national conversation.
  • 00:03:00
    Roosevelt with his progressivism
  • 00:03:02
    and Perot with his concerns about the national debt.
  • 00:03:05
    Third-parties have dreams of sitting in the Oval Office.
  • 00:03:07
    Who doesn't?
  • 00:03:08
    But they'll settle for raising awareness about their
  • 00:03:10
    candidates and beliefs.
  • 00:03:12
    They want voters to know that they're even an option.
  • 00:03:14
    So, this year they'll hope to build
  • 00:03:16
    just a little bit more support
  • 00:03:17
    before inevitably running again in 2020.
Tags
  • Third-parties
  • U.S. elections
  • Duverger's Law
  • Libertarian Party
  • Green Party
  • Electoral system
  • Presidential debates
  • Campaign funding