Terry Smith: Você É Seu Pior Inimigo (Legendado PT-BR)

00:05:48
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqNCtLVxRN0

Summary

TLDRO vídeo aborda a ideia de que os investidores frequentemente são seus próprios piores inimigos e que isso se reflete em suas decisões de investimento. Através de dados e simulações, é demonstrado que a frequência das decisões tomadas afeta negativamente os retornos. Investidores que analisam informações mensalmente tendem a agir impulsivamente, resultando em perdas, enquanto aqueles que fazem revisões menos frequentes (a cada cinco anos) obtêm melhores resultados. O conceito do 'Gorila Invisível' é usado como uma analogia, enfatizando que focar excessivamente em detalhes pode levar à desconsideração de fatores importantes.

Takeaways

  • 🤔 Você é seu próprio pior inimigo!
  • 📊 O timing do mercado pode arruinar seus investimentos.
  • 💡 Decisões menos frequentes geralmente resultam em melhores retornos.
  • 👀 Focar demasiadamente nos detalhes pode levá-lo a ignorar o óbvio.
  • 🤑 Os investidores tendem a seguir o mercado, investindo mais quando sobe e vendendo quando desce.
  • ⏳ O conceito do 'Gorila Invisível' ilustra a distração no investimento.
  • 📉 Altas taxas reduzem seus lucros.
  • 🔄 A sobrevivência emocional é crucial para manter investimentos rentáveis.

Timeline

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:48

    O orador discute como os investidores muitas vezes são seus próprios piores inimigos, destacando a subperformance dos fundos de investimento. Ele apresenta dados sobre o desempenho medíocre dos gestores de fundos e a tendência dos investidores de negociar excessivamente, influenciados por taxas altas e má temporização. Usando o exemplo do "Gorila Invisível", ele ilustra como a distração e a concentração em detalhes podem fazer os investidores perderem informações importantes. Durante uma simulação de investimento de 30 anos, aqueles que recebem dados mensais tendem a tomar decisões emocionais ruins, resultando em retornos inferiores em comparação com aqueles que tomam decisões a cada cinco anos, sugerindo que menos pode ser mais em termos de investimento. Em resumo, os investidores devem evitar a armadilha de agir impulsivamente com base nas flutuações do mercado, pois são eles mesmos que frequentemente prejudicam seu desempenho financeiro.

Mind Map

Video Q&A

  • Qual é a principal mensagem do vídeo?

    Os investidores são frequentemente seus próprios piores inimigos devido a decisões emocionais e mau timing no mercado.

  • O que a simulação de investimento demonstrou?

    Mostrou que investidores que tomam decisões com mais frequência tendem a ter retornos mais baixos do que aqueles que fazem decisões com menos frequência.

  • O que é o conceito do 'Gorila Invisível'?

    É uma metáfora que ilustra como focar excessivamente em detalhes pode fazer os investidores ignorar informações óbvias.

  • Como o vídeo sugere que os investidores devem agir?

    Os investidores devem evitar decisões impulsivas e focar em estratégias de investimento a longo prazo.

  • Qual é a relação entre o tempo de decisão e os retornos de investimento?

    Tomar decisões mais raras, em intervalos maiores, geralmente resulta em melhores retornos.

  • O que influencia as decisões de investimento, segundo o vídeo?

    As emoções e as flutuações do mercado têm um grande impacto nas decisões de investimento dos indivíduos.

  • Como o desempenho do mercado influencia o fluxo de investimento?

    Os investidores tendem a investir mais quando o mercado sobe e retirar dinheiro quando ele desce.

  • O que implica a estrutura de tomada de decisões apresentada?

    Decisões informadas e menos frequentes levam a um melhor desempenho em investimentos.

  • Qual é o impacto dos custos sobre os investimentos?

    Altas taxas podem prejudicar o retorno dos investidores.

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  • 00:00:04
    [Music]
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    there's one other thing there's one
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    other person who's a problem in here
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    it's you you are in fact Your Own Worst
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    Enemy um as you can see I've given you
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    three bullet points on this slide if you
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    take the investment management
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    association's Global growth sector uh
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    which I take as a proxy simply because
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    it's the one my fund is in you'll see
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    that in the 10 years from 2000 to 20 10
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    they managed the average fund manager
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    there turned £1,000 into the princely
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    sum of £ 1,074 not very good eh but then
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    if you look at the second bullet point
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    you can see that's from a study done of
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    us investors their underperformance that
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    they've got which is about 7% below
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    Market the average mutual fund investor
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    is blamed upon the performance of the
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    fund yes I've mentioned that the fact
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    that people trade too much they hug the
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    index it's based upon the fees which
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    people charge which are too high and
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    their own poor timing people make very
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    poor timing decisions there are only two
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    types of people when it comes to Market
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    timing those who can't Market time and
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    those who don't know they can't Market
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    time there is no third group basically
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    um I mentioned at the bottom a final
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    point which is a thing called The
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    Invisible Gorilla it's a a book and uh
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    it mentions a a clip which you can find
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    on YouTube about the called The
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    Invisible Gorilla and uh if you have a
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    moment look at it it's a it involves a
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    competition in which you look at a a
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    video of a group of people half of whom
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    have got black t-shirts and half of them
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    have got white t-shirts and they pass a
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    basketball between each other and your
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    prize in the competition is one if you
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    can count the number of passes between
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    the white t-shirts that's all you have
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    to do and so they pass the ball very
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    quickly and you concentrate on the
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    screen to get your cash prize whilst
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    you're watching it a woman in a gorilla
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    suit walks across the middle of the clip
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    doing
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    that and then you watch the clip and
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    people ask you how many passes between
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    the white t-shirts and you give your
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    answer and of course you if you've been
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    very careful you win the prize then
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    somebody will say what did you think
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    about the gorilla half of you if you
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    were watching that clip would not see
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    the gorilla you would say what
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    gorilla a significant percentage of the
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    half of you wouldn't see the gorilla
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    would claim that the clip had been
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    doctored and that there was no gorilla
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    in the original clip because you're
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    focusing so much on watching those
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    passes you don't see the obvious um the
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    book The Invisible Gorilla which takes
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    that clip uh as the of its title has a a
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    number of case studies in there but one
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    of them is a computer simulation of
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    investment and it's a computer
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    simulation which simulates 30 years of
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    investment a typical investment career
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    and it asks you to make a selection
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    between two portfolios the snappily
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    named portfolio a and portfolio B you
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    are told nothing at the outset about
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    those two portfolios uh what you don't
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    know because you're not told it is that
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    portfolio a is an equity portfolio it
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    has very high returns but is very
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    volatile it goes up and down quite a lot
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    over time portfolio B is a bond
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    portfolio it has very low returns but it
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    doesn't it's not very volatile doesn't
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    vary very much but you don't know that
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    at the outset you are asked to choose
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    how you want to divide your assets
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    between them at the outset and then on a
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    number of periods during the 30 years
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    actually takes place over a day this
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    exercise but you're given 30 years of
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    data and all you'll get each time is the
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    performance data that's occurred so far
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    in the exercise and you make a decision
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    now having read up on Harry marovitz and
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    understanding portfolio diversification
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    sensibly what most of you would do is
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    put your assets into those two
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    portfolios 50/50 because you know
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    absolutely nothing about them then the
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    exercise begins but there's one other
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    thing the group is divided into two the
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    people on that side of the room are
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    given data every 5 years during the
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    computer exercise so it's a 30-year
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    simulation at year five in the in the
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    computer run they get the two portfolios
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    performance and they're given the
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    opportunity to change their waiting from
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    50/50 and at year 10 and at year 15 and
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    at year 20 and at year 25 that's it the
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    people on that side of the room are
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    given data every month on these two
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    portfolios and if they wish they can
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    deal uh and so they get at month one two
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    three so they get over here you can make
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    five decisions During the period if you
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    wish you get five data points over here
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    you can make 359
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    decisions every time the simulation is
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    run the people over here who can decide
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    every month what to do make about half
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    the return of the people over here we
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    make a decision every 5 years in
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    investment more is less the more you
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    look at the detail the more you're
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    likely to get this wrong sometimes in
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    terms of what happens every month with
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    every squiggle the people who only look
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    at this every 5 years can see that
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    although the equity portfolio is
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    volatile it it's a wavy line it's a wavy
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    line that over time outperforms the bond
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    portfolio so they're very sensible they
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    start to concentrate their investment
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    through their decisions on the high
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    return portfolio the people over here
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    who get monthly data sooner or later get
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    a really shocking month for the equity
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    portfolio and so they bail out at a low
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    price then it goes back up and so they
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    get back in at a high price then it goes
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    back down again at some point and they
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    bail out a low price by the time you've
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    been whips sored like that two or three
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    times most people don't have the
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    emotional strength to stay with the high
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    return portfolio so the last thing to
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    say about how to perform badly is you
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    are Your Own Worst Enemy it's not the
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    fund manager necessarily It's Your Own
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    Worst Enemy it's you you can see that if
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    you look at this this is basically fund
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    flows and you can see quite clearly a
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    correlation between the blue bars which
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    are the net fund flows for a period um
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    and the uh and the level of the market
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    which is the the total return line which
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    is the black wavy line quite clearly
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    people put more and more money in the
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    more the market goes up and they take
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    more and more money out the more the
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    market goes down this is precisely the
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    opposite of the way to invest
Tags
  • investimento
  • decisões
  • Gorila Invisível
  • performance
  • fundos
  • timing de mercado
  • psicologia do investidor
  • estratégia
  • rentabilidade
  • fund flows