The Fed Just Changed Everything - What You Need To Know NOW!

00:15:16
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5E-9UYj7mqo

Summary

TLDRThe Federal Reserve has recently announced a half-percentage point interest rate cut, which will have significant effects on both the economy and individual finances. This change comes as inflation has cooled to 2.5% from its peak and allows the FED to reduce rates after two years of aggressive hikes. Historically, stock markets have shown positive returns in 86% of scenarios following rate cuts, although the presence of a recession can alter this trend. For investors, lower interest rates often boost stock prices, as companies find it cheaper to borrow money. Certain sectors, like utilities and real estate, tend to perform better, thanks to reduced borrowing costs. Bond prices generally rise as interest rates fall, providing attractive returns for investors in these safer assets. Regarding cryptocurrency, Bitcoin could potentially benefit from increased market liquidity driven by lower interest rates, similar to past trends when Fed rates were near zero. Borrowers, including those with mortgages, car loans, and credit cards, are expected to see reduced interest rates, which can make financing more affordable. However, savings accounts and CDs will likely offer lower returns as banks decrease their rates to reflect the federal cut. Overall, the impacts of this rate cut are complex, and while they offer many opportunities for investors and borrowers, they also underscore the dynamic nature of economic forecasting and financial planning.

Takeaways

  • 🚀 The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.5%, influencing the economy and stock market.
  • 📉 Inflation has decreased to 2.5%, prompting this rate change.
  • 💡 Historically, rate cuts have led to stock market gains in 86% of cases.
  • 🏦 Lower interest rates mean reduced borrowing costs for loans and mortgages.
  • 📉 Savings account interest rates are likely to decline.
  • 📈 Bitcoin may see increased prices due to heightened market liquidity.
  • 🏢 Utilities and real estate sectors benefit from reduced borrowing costs.
  • 📊 Bond prices usually increase as interest rates fall.
  • 🏡 Mortgages are anticipated to become more affordable.
  • 💳 Credit card interest rates may decrease, easing consumer costs.

Timeline

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by half a percent, a move that will significantly affect the economy, the stock market, and individual finances. This decision comes after a period of aggressive rate hikes to combat extreme inflation rates peaking at 9% in mid-2022. However, with inflation now reduced to 2.5%, the FED deemed it appropriate to pivot and lower rates, particularly the federal funds rate, which influences bank lending rates. Historically, rate cuts often lead to positive outcomes for the stock market, visible in the 86% instances since 1929 when markets performed well post-rate cuts—unless overshadowed by a recession.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    Interest rate cuts tend to complicate stock investment dynamics. Typically, U.S. stocks and REITs outperform when rates are lowered because many companies with significant debt benefit from reduced borrowing costs, boosting profits—particularly in sectors like utilities and real estate. For bond investments, lower rates increase bond prices, although it's suggested that bonds are mostly a stable asset for wealth preservation rather than aggressive growth. The reduction in interest rates may very well benefit dividend investors due to increased performance in dividend-paying sectors.

  • 00:10:00 - 00:15:16

    With interest rates going down, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin might see a positive impact, much like gold which increased significantly in market cap. The availability of cheap money often increases market liquidity, favoring investments like Bitcoin. On the other hand, borrowing costs for consumers are expected to decrease, benefiting those looking to finance homes or cars while savers might see diminishing returns on their high-yield savings accounts and CDs. The speaker shares a diversified investment strategy across real estate, Bitcoin, stocks, and cash, projecting optimism for the long-term growth of the stock market and Bitcoin.

Mind Map

Video Q&A

  • Why did the Federal Reserve cut interest rates?

    The Federal Reserve cut interest rates due to cooling off inflation, which has decreased to 2.5%, identifying it safe to pivot from previous rate hikes.

  • What is the historical stock market performance after a rate cut?

    Historically, the stock market has posted positive returns in 86% of cases in the 12 months following a rate cut.

  • How does a rate cut affect bonds?

    Lower interest rates increase bond prices, making them more expensive and providing stable returns.

  • What happens to Bitcoin when interest rates decrease?

    Bitcoin price is linked to market liquidity. Lower interest rates can increase market liquidity and potentially drive Bitcoin's price up.

  • Will borrowing costs decrease with the rate cut?

    Yes, lower interest rates should make borrowing cheaper for loans, homes, and cars.

  • What could be the impact on savings account with a rate cut?

    Interest rates on savings accounts are likely to fall following the rate cut, as banks adjust to lower rates.

  • What sectors benefit from a rate cut?

    Dividend-paying sectors like utilities and real estate tend to perform well in a low-rate environment.

  • What's the potential impact on mortgage rates?

    Mortgage rates, which were at a 20-year high, are expected to decrease, following the rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

  • How are credit card rates affected by Fed rate cuts?

    Credit card rates, linked to federal fund rates, tend to decrease following Fed rate cuts.

  • What are the odds of a recession after a rate cut?

    There's an 8% prediction for recession in 2024, and a 56% chance before 2026, suggesting a possible economic downturn risk.

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  • 00:00:00
    so the economy just flipped because the
  • 00:00:01
    Federal Reserve just announced that
  • 00:00:03
    they're cutting interest rates by half a
  • 00:00:05
    per. and I know that sounds like a
  • 00:00:07
    really small number but this will have a
  • 00:00:10
    huge impact on the economy the stock
  • 00:00:12
    market and your money and if you're
  • 00:00:14
    wondering how I was able to release this
  • 00:00:16
    video so soon considering the news just
  • 00:00:18
    dropped it's not because I'm a genius
  • 00:00:21
    it's because I took a peek at the CME
  • 00:00:23
    fed watch tool which has been predicting
  • 00:00:25
    this for a couple weeks now and based on
  • 00:00:28
    this rate cut I want to help break down
  • 00:00:30
    exactly what this means for Savers
  • 00:00:32
    investors the stock market Bitcoin and
  • 00:00:35
    of course magicians I'm going to show
  • 00:00:37
    you some really cool data about what
  • 00:00:39
    happened to everyone when we did this in
  • 00:00:41
    the past now the first question you
  • 00:00:43
    might have is why did the Federal
  • 00:00:45
    Reserve do this so let's rewind for the
  • 00:00:48
    last 2 and 1/2 years the Federal Reserve
  • 00:00:50
    has been raising interest rates to fight
  • 00:00:52
    inflation after the price increase which
  • 00:00:54
    went up to a 40-year high of 99.1% in
  • 00:00:59
    June of 2022
  • 00:01:00
    that was all thanks to the money printer
  • 00:01:02
    inflation at that level was comparable
  • 00:01:05
    to the late 1970s and early 80s when the
  • 00:01:09
    FED also raised their rates under their
  • 00:01:11
    Papa Powell at the time who was chairman
  • 00:01:13
    Paul vulker back then Paul vulker raised
  • 00:01:17
    their interest rates as high as 20% to
  • 00:01:20
    slow inflation which caused a recession
  • 00:01:23
    but fast forward to today we don't have
  • 00:01:26
    that same level of extreme inflation
  • 00:01:28
    arguably but the feds rate hikes over
  • 00:01:30
    the past 2 years have been the most
  • 00:01:32
    aggressive since the 1970s vulker era
  • 00:01:36
    and now the latest economic report shows
  • 00:01:39
    inflation has went down to
  • 00:01:42
    25% remember our goal is to get to 2% we
  • 00:01:46
    were at 9% at our Peak now we're at
  • 00:01:50
    2.5% and this cooling off inflation is
  • 00:01:54
    one of the main reasons why the FED has
  • 00:01:56
    decided it was safe to Pivot and lower
  • 00:01:58
    interest rates specifically something
  • 00:02:01
    called the federal funds rate or the
  • 00:02:04
    cost for banks to borrow money from each
  • 00:02:06
    other which directly affects our cost to
  • 00:02:10
    borrow money as consumers so that's how
  • 00:02:13
    we got here but now I want to share with
  • 00:02:14
    you some really interesting data about
  • 00:02:17
    what this means for the stock market
  • 00:02:19
    dividend stocks Bitcoin bonds Savers and
  • 00:02:22
    investors and at the end of the video I
  • 00:02:24
    want to give you my personal opinion of
  • 00:02:26
    how I'm investing so let's get into it
  • 00:02:29
    hi my name is Andre J hope you're doing
  • 00:02:31
    well come for the finance and stay for
  • 00:02:32
    the economy so first let me start with
  • 00:02:35
    the most exciting topic that everyone
  • 00:02:37
    wants to know about which is the stock
  • 00:02:39
    market and what this means for investors
  • 00:02:41
    now in the past when the FED lowered the
  • 00:02:45
    interest rate the stock market tended to
  • 00:02:47
    do well according to a study by Schwab
  • 00:02:50
    in the 12 months after a rate cut the
  • 00:02:53
    s&p500 the stock market has posted
  • 00:02:56
    positive returns in 86% of cases since
  • 00:03:02
    1929 data shows in the last 100 years
  • 00:03:06
    that the FED pivoted to lower rates it
  • 00:03:09
    was a good thing for investors not in
  • 00:03:11
    all cases but in 86% of cases and the
  • 00:03:15
    reason that it's not 100% is because if
  • 00:03:18
    there is a recession that changes things
  • 00:03:22
    if there's a recession the stock market
  • 00:03:24
    on average has lost 15% in the first 12
  • 00:03:28
    months so the followup question I had is
  • 00:03:31
    what are the odds of a recession the
  • 00:03:33
    good news is in 2024 according to the
  • 00:03:36
    stock market it's only 8% but the bad
  • 00:03:39
    news is it's predicting a 56% chance we
  • 00:03:42
    could go into one before 2026 so it's
  • 00:03:46
    kind of a coin flip but generally
  • 00:03:48
    speaking lower rates have helped boost
  • 00:03:50
    stock prices because companies borrow
  • 00:03:52
    money more cheaply which helps them with
  • 00:03:54
    their profits but it's also important to
  • 00:03:56
    remember that rate cuts are not
  • 00:03:59
    guarantee that the stock market will go
  • 00:04:02
    up because timing and context matters
  • 00:04:05
    too for example during the dotcom bust
  • 00:04:08
    when the FED lowered rates but the stock
  • 00:04:11
    market still went down 13% in the
  • 00:04:13
    following 12 months and again when the
  • 00:04:16
    FED started cutting rates in September
  • 00:04:18
    2007 in response to the financial crisis
  • 00:04:21
    the stock market also went down
  • 00:04:24
    17.6% but for the most part stocks do
  • 00:04:26
    tend to go up when the FED lowers rates
  • 00:04:29
    and here's a few examples when the FED
  • 00:04:31
    cut rates in 2019 stocks went up over
  • 00:04:34
    15% in the months leading up to the blip
  • 00:04:37
    that we all experienced around the world
  • 00:04:39
    and after the fed's emergency rate cut
  • 00:04:41
    in 2020 the stock market went up by over
  • 00:04:44
    60% and it reached an all-time high
  • 00:04:46
    overall though here's a little cheat
  • 00:04:48
    sheet for you to reference in case you
  • 00:04:49
    forget all of this nerdy information
  • 00:04:51
    this shows you data between 1976 to 2023
  • 00:04:55
    with International stocks US Stocks
  • 00:04:58
    commodities reats bonds and gold and as
  • 00:05:01
    you can see when the interest rates are
  • 00:05:03
    high that's when bonds typically do okay
  • 00:05:06
    but when interest rates go down that's
  • 00:05:08
    when the US Stock Market as well as
  • 00:05:10
    REITs dominate the rest of the market
  • 00:05:13
    the takeaway is that if you like to
  • 00:05:16
    invest your money into stocks the effect
  • 00:05:18
    of rate Cuts is more complicated than
  • 00:05:21
    rates go down stocks go up and certain
  • 00:05:25
    stocks perform better than others after
  • 00:05:27
    a rate cut according to research from
  • 00:05:29
    schwaba again dividend paying sectors
  • 00:05:31
    like utilities and real estate tend to
  • 00:05:34
    outperform the broader Market in a low
  • 00:05:37
    rate environment this is because these
  • 00:05:39
    companies typically carry a big amount
  • 00:05:40
    of debt and lower rates reduces their
  • 00:05:43
    borrowing costs which makes them more
  • 00:05:45
    profitable so if you're a dividend
  • 00:05:47
    investor which I personally am this is
  • 00:05:49
    really good news and lower interest
  • 00:05:51
    rates also have a positive effect on
  • 00:05:53
    bond prices and I like to think of bonds
  • 00:05:56
    as super stable guaranteed return on my
  • 00:05:59
    grand paaw like asset and it makes bonds
  • 00:06:02
    more expensive because as interest rates
  • 00:06:04
    go down bond prices go up now I'm going
  • 00:06:07
    to assume that most of us don't invest
  • 00:06:10
    in the bond market unless we have a lot
  • 00:06:11
    of money or you're protecting your
  • 00:06:12
    wealth so that means you're probably not
  • 00:06:14
    very busy watching my YouTube channel
  • 00:06:16
    but if you are you're probably a retired
  • 00:06:19
    Finance nerd so thank you so much for
  • 00:06:20
    watching my boring videos but next up I
  • 00:06:23
    want to show you what happens to bitcoin
  • 00:06:25
    so now that interest rates are going
  • 00:06:27
    down I'm super excited to see what
  • 00:06:28
    stocks will do depending on who gets
  • 00:06:30
    selected and I've been tracking that
  • 00:06:32
    information using today's sponsor Mumu
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    an investment platform that provides
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    investors in the US Canada and Australia
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    and using the search feature I can look
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    up either Harris or Trump and it will
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    show me a list of stocks that could
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    potentially benefit if either one was
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    elected but Mumu can also help you find
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    making sure that you maximize your
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    earnings without any extra effort and
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    that cash is always available for
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    trading or withdrawal and if you've ever
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    been super frustrated like I have
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    because you're not able to buy and sell
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    stocks outside of normal trading hours
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    Mumu allows you to trade up to 16 hours
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    a day covering both pre-market and post
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    the news and the market changes in real
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    this segment of the video and now let's
  • 00:08:26
    get back to it so the other question I
  • 00:08:28
    had is what happens to cryp and Bitcoin
  • 00:08:30
    when interest rates go down and I'm
  • 00:08:32
    going to show you what I think will
  • 00:08:33
    happen in the next 12 months by using
  • 00:08:35
    gold as an example gold has already gone
  • 00:08:37
    up significantly in 2024 it's up 25% but
  • 00:08:42
    let me show you something that's going
  • 00:08:44
    to blow your mind because at the start
  • 00:08:46
    of 2024 Gold's market cap was about $1
  • 00:08:50
    13.8
  • 00:08:52
    trillion right now it's roughly 17.5
  • 00:08:56
    trillion that's an increase of 3 7
  • 00:09:00
    trillion bitcoin's market cap on the
  • 00:09:03
    other hand is about 1.1 trillion and
  • 00:09:07
    that means this year alone gold went up
  • 00:09:12
    3.3 times the entire size of bitcoin's
  • 00:09:16
    market cap that's how small Bitcoin
  • 00:09:19
    still is now for gold that $3.7 trillion
  • 00:09:23
    increase meant that gold went up from
  • 00:09:25
    $2,000 an ounce at the start of 2024 to
  • 00:09:29
    $2500 an ounce right now in September
  • 00:09:32
    2024 a $500 increase which is amazing
  • 00:09:35
    but here's the million-dollar question
  • 00:09:37
    though do you think Bitcoin could match
  • 00:09:40
    the same price performance as gold if
  • 00:09:43
    you think it can if you think that
  • 00:09:45
    Bitcoin can still experience the same
  • 00:09:47
    market cap increase then Bitcoin could
  • 00:09:50
    go up by a factor of 3.3x that means
  • 00:09:53
    roughly $558,000 a coin that it's at now
  • 00:09:56
    to
  • 00:09:57
    $174,000 a coin but really it depends on
  • 00:10:00
    the fed's monetary policy and what
  • 00:10:02
    they'll do going forward for example
  • 00:10:04
    when the FED slashed rates to almost
  • 00:10:07
    zero in 2020 Bitcoin went up from around
  • 00:10:09
    7,000 a coin to over 60,000 by April
  • 00:10:13
    2021 but this also around the time if
  • 00:10:15
    you remember when institutional money
  • 00:10:17
    like micro strategy and Tesla started
  • 00:10:19
    adding Bitcoin to the balance sheet
  • 00:10:20
    because they wanted something other than
  • 00:10:23
    those low yielding bonds that's why
  • 00:10:26
    Bitcoin did so well bitcoin's price is
  • 00:10:29
    linked to Market liquidity aka the
  • 00:10:32
    availability of money and lower interest
  • 00:10:35
    rates means the availability of money
  • 00:10:38
    increases and micro strategy again is
  • 00:10:41
    loading up on more Bitcoin even at these
  • 00:10:43
    prices so for a long-term holders and
  • 00:10:46
    buyers I think it's really good news but
  • 00:10:48
    now the question is what does this mean
  • 00:10:50
    for borrowers and Savers now the good
  • 00:10:53
    news is if you want to borrow money
  • 00:10:55
    Banks should now have a lower interest
  • 00:10:57
    rate for loans making easier to buy
  • 00:11:00
    homes and cars and to take out loans for
  • 00:11:02
    businesses but the bad news is if you've
  • 00:11:05
    been enjoying those interest rates on
  • 00:11:07
    your savings accounts or CDs that's also
  • 00:11:10
    about to change the average interest
  • 00:11:12
    rate on a high yield savings account
  • 00:11:14
    reached
  • 00:11:15
    5.25% in August 2024 but with the FED
  • 00:11:19
    cutting rates banks have already lowered
  • 00:11:22
    their savings rate historically we have
  • 00:11:25
    seen rates Fall by a qu% to a half a%
  • 00:11:29
    within a couple weeks of a Fed cut for
  • 00:11:32
    example during the last rate cutting
  • 00:11:34
    cycle in 2019 the national average
  • 00:11:38
    savings rate dropped from 2.2% to just
  • 00:11:42
    under 1% in less than 3 months so if you
  • 00:11:46
    want to keep your money in a savings
  • 00:11:48
    account consider locking in that higher
  • 00:11:50
    rate with a longer term CD or look for
  • 00:11:54
    those longer maturity dates on the other
  • 00:11:56
    hand if you want to borrow money this is
  • 00:11:58
    really good news the cost of a 30-year
  • 00:12:01
    mortgage rate which hit a 20-year high
  • 00:12:03
    of about 8% last year should start to go
  • 00:12:06
    down as of September 2024 the average
  • 00:12:10
    30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.2% but
  • 00:12:14
    we could see that drop by a quarter to a
  • 00:12:16
    half a percent in the coming months if
  • 00:12:19
    the FED continues to cut rates for
  • 00:12:22
    example after the fed's last rate cut in
  • 00:12:25
    2019 mortgage rates dropped by around
  • 00:12:29
    75% so 34s over the course of the
  • 00:12:33
    following 6 months so if you have a high
  • 00:12:35
    interest rate on your home consider
  • 00:12:37
    refinancing when the rates start to come
  • 00:12:39
    down but remember this is also not just
  • 00:12:42
    limited to mortgages if you have a car
  • 00:12:44
    loan student loan or even a credit card
  • 00:12:47
    rates should also start to come down and
  • 00:12:49
    credit cards by the way which are
  • 00:12:51
    directly linked to the federal fund
  • 00:12:53
    rates saw an average rate drop from 177%
  • 00:12:57
    in 2019 to around 14% by mid 2020 after
  • 00:13:02
    those rate Cuts either way though
  • 00:13:04
    experts say you should never carry a
  • 00:13:06
    balance and instead they say you should
  • 00:13:08
    transfer to a 0% APR offer and
  • 00:13:11
    aggressively pay down your high interest
  • 00:13:13
    rate debt now if you made it this far
  • 00:13:14
    into the video here's my personal
  • 00:13:16
    opinion and how I'm going to invest when
  • 00:13:18
    it comes to stocks my gut feeling is
  • 00:13:20
    that initially the stock market will go
  • 00:13:23
    down and that's because I think the rate
  • 00:13:25
    Cuts have already been priced in so I
  • 00:13:27
    think it will be a buy the rumor sell
  • 00:13:30
    the news kind of thing in the long term
  • 00:13:32
    I can't argue with the data that says
  • 00:13:34
    over the next 12 months the stock market
  • 00:13:37
    goes up in 86% of cases so unless
  • 00:13:40
    something happens outside of what we
  • 00:13:42
    know about then it should go up and for
  • 00:13:45
    Bitcoin I think the next 12 months are
  • 00:13:47
    going to be super interesting because
  • 00:13:49
    Bitcoin tends to lag behind Gold's
  • 00:13:52
    performance so first gold goes up and
  • 00:13:54
    then Bitcoin goes up not in all cases
  • 00:13:57
    but I think Bitcoin is significantly
  • 00:14:00
    undervalued relative to Gold's market
  • 00:14:03
    cap so personally here's how I've been
  • 00:14:05
    investing I've split my net worth into
  • 00:14:07
    four different categories that I'm
  • 00:14:09
    somewhat equally invested in 25% in real
  • 00:14:13
    estate 25% in Bitcoin 25% in stocks and
  • 00:14:17
    25% in cash I'm still buying the S&P 500
  • 00:14:20
    via the vti ETF at $100 a day I'm still
  • 00:14:25
    reinvesting all of my dividend income
  • 00:14:28
    back into my dividends stocks which is
  • 00:14:30
    projected to grow to a sizable income in
  • 00:14:32
    just a couple decades automatically I
  • 00:14:34
    bought quite a bit of Bitcoin because
  • 00:14:36
    just like Michael sailor I think in the
  • 00:14:38
    long term Bitcoin will outperform
  • 00:14:40
    virtually every other asset class
  • 00:14:42
    including an especially gold and finally
  • 00:14:44
    my rental property is also fully rented
  • 00:14:47
    it's going on 2 years now and it's cash
  • 00:14:49
    flowing at a 2.5% loan and it helps
  • 00:14:51
    lower my taxes but I don't really plan
  • 00:14:53
    on buying any more real estate for now
  • 00:14:55
    I'd love to hear how you're investing
  • 00:14:56
    and what you think will happen to the
  • 00:14:58
    market and as always I hope you have a
  • 00:15:00
    wonderful rest of your day smash the
  • 00:15:02
    like button subscribe if you haven't
  • 00:15:03
    already don't forget to grab those free
  • 00:15:05
    stocks links are down below go track
  • 00:15:07
    them autom magically with a spreadsheet
  • 00:15:08
    link Down Below in my patreon thank you
  • 00:15:10
    so much for watching this video I'd love
  • 00:15:12
    to see you back here next week I'll see
  • 00:15:14
    you soon bye-bye
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