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Africa is often viewed quite poorly on the
world stage.
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The continent holds plenty of violent, corrupt,
and unstable nations and the majority of world’s
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least developed countries, but Africa is big.
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There are 54 countries there and not all fall
into the generalizations of the continent
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as a whole.
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Perhaps most notably, Rwanda.
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One of the easiest ways to compare countries
is through their indicators and Rwanda’s
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are impressive.
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For every 100,000 residents, Rwanda has, on
average, only 2.5 murders per year.
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As a point of comparison, that’s lower than
India’s 3.2 or the United States’ 5.4.
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It’s even more impressive when looking at
the kind of neighborhood Rwanda is in.
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Uganda has 11.5, Tanzania has 7, Burundi has
6, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo
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has 13.6 murders per 100,000.
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In addition, Rwanda is ranked as the 48th
least corrupt country in the world.
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That’s not perfect, but on the continent,
only Botswana, a far richer country, ranks
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higher.
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The country also has a 67 year life expectancy,
tied for forth best in Africa, and only slightly
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below the world average.
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That 67 year number is believable, but what’s
truly unbelievable is that 25 years ago, the
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average Rwandan had a life expectancy of 28
years.
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25 years ago, Rwanda was in the midst of one
of the most horrific genocides in history.
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In only 100 days, 800,000 Rwandans were murdered
in the midst of this ethnic conflict.
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The group primarily targeted, the Tutsi, saw
the loss of about 75% of its population.
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With time, though, the country emerged from
the other end, peace prevailed, and its indicators
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began their steady climb upwards to where
they are today.
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It is now the 15th fastest growing economy
in the world as its government has set out
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a clearly defined mission—they want to become
the Singapore of Africa.
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To understand what this means, though, you
have to understand what Singapore is.
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It’s easy to forget that east Asia was not
the highly developed, economically powerful
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place it is today 100 years ago.
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Many refer to the 1800’s as Britain’s
century, the 1900’s as America’s century,
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and the 2000’s as Asia’s century.
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It’s thought that we are currently in the
century where Asia will prevail and one of
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the countries driving that is Singapore.
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Singapore sits at the top of all the indicators—not
just for Asia, but the world.
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It’s the eighth safest, third richest, third
least corrupt, third longest living country
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in the world.
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60 years ago, in 1960’s, Singapore’s economy
had a size of about $700 million.
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Today that number is $320 billion.
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In the last ten years alone its GDP has doubled.
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It went from a definitively third-world country
to a definitively first-world country in less
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than a lifetime.
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The country is intensely focused on being
the business hub for Asia.
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Of the world’s 20 largest companies, 15
have operations in Singapore.
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It’s tough to look at the results of Singapore’s
economic development without being impressed.
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They have done the nearly impossible.
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Some of the ways Singapore has achieved this
growth, though, has met some criticism.
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The way Singapore is run politically has been
described as, “paternalistic.”
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It’s not quite authoritarian, but some freedoms
are lacking.
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One of the few indicators that Singapore does
rank at the top of is the Democracy Index.
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It scores a 6.4 out of 10 which ranks it at
66th in the world and categorizes it as a,
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“flawed democracy.”
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The elements of this paternalism range from
small things like the country’s ban on chewing
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gum for cleanliness purposes to big things
like the limitations on freedom of speech,
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assembly, and the press.
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To this, proponents would say, “look at
the results.”
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The country has succeeded economically based
off the trade that seemingly more and more
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countries are embracing, “liberty for prosperity.”
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Rwanda has been paying attention.
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Paul Kagame, its president, declared that
mission to turn the country into, “the Singapore
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of Africa,” and in many ways, it’s already
well on its way.
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Arguing that Rwanda is authoritarian is easy.
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On the same democracy indicator where Singapore
is categorized as a, “flawed democracy,”
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Rwanda earns a score of 3.4 out of 10 and
the categorization of, “authoritarian.”
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Paul Kagame was first elected in 2003, then
again in 2010, then again in 2017 with 98.8%
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of the vote.
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The US Department of State, though, described
that third election as having some, “irregularities.”
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That also came after a constitutional amendment
lifting term limits to let Kagame take power
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again.
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He is clearly well-liked and impressive.
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He began his career in the military, played
a part in toppling the oppressive governments
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of Uganda, Rwanda, and the DRC, and has been
described as, “perhaps the most successful
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general alive.”
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He is by all accounts a military genius and
since his fighting days he has risen Rwanda
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from chaos into peace and prosperity but as
a political leader, he himself is still oppressive.
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Just like Singapore, there are severe limitations
on the freedom of speech, assembly, and the
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press.
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There are even accusations of Kagame supporting
or arranging the assassination of his political
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opponents.
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Looking at the ends, though, there are clearly
more parallels with Singapore.
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Singapore’s success as a business hub is
can be attributed to three factors: geographic
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centrality, political stability, and ease
of doing business.
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As part of Kagame’s mission, Rwanda is working
to improve these same three factors.
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For the first factor, Singapore’s sits as
a central point in the world.
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Within an eight hour flight one can get to
the major business hubs of the middle east
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in the UAE and Qatar, all of India, all of
east Asia’s major business hubs, and all
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of Australia.
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Meanwhile, Rwanda sits only 600 miles or 950
kilometers from the geographic center of Africa.
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It is about as central as you can get on the
enormous continent.
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For both countries, though, geographic centrality
means nothing unless you can actually get
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to them.
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One of Singapore’s largest companies is
Singapore airlines—often considered one
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of the best if not the best airline in the
world.
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Thanks to this airline, one can get from Singapore
to five different continents in a matter of
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hours.
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It’s easy to underestimate the importance
of having a globally competitive airline to
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establish a city as a business hub.
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It’s safe to say that other business hubs,
such as Dubai and Doha, would not be as influential
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as they are today without their airlines.
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Rwanda has clearly noticed this.
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Their national airline, Rwandair, which is
government owned, has grown from a tiny operation
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with a few regional jets to a significant,
intercontinental airline operating brand new
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planes.
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They now fly all around Africa, to Dubai,
Brussels, and London and have even announced
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plans to start one-stop service to both Guangzhou,
China and New York.
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While the airline is not yet nearly at the
level of some larger players on the continent
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like Ethiopian Airlines and South Africa Airways,
it’s serving its job effectively of connecting
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Rwanda to the world.
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The second factor to Singapore’s economic
success is political stability.
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The World Bank rates countries in terms of,
“political stability and absence of violence
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and terrorism,” and for this, Singapore,
unsurprisingly, comes up in the 99th percentile—better
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than almost any country in the world.
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This is a big reason why a CEO might choose
to set up their Asian hub in Singapore over
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Hong Kong, for example, which only scores
in the 75th percentile for political stability
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and is trending downwards.
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They want to operate in a place that they
know won’t change quickly on a political
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level since there are inherent costs involved
with a changing external environment.
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Rwanda sits at the 48th percentile for this
political stability indicator, well in the
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middle of the pack.
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This isn’t phenomenal but, compared to the
sub-Saharan average of 31, it’s doing alright.
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It’s a contentious issue whether elements
of authoritarianism promote or impede political
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stability.
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In Rwanda’s case, with so few years under
the current form of government, it’s tough
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to know if the country really is stable or
not.
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Rwanda is now, by many accounts, a police
state.
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There are random checkpoints all around the
country and strict security at most buildings
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in Kigali, the capital.
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Kigali is now one of the cleanest cities in
Africa, let alone the world, partially due
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to a ban on single-use plastics and plastic
bags but also because all able-bodied members
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of the population are required to participate
in a community cleaning day on the last Saturday
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of each month.
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According to one report, there’s even widespread
unlawful detention of what are described as,
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“undesirables,” on the streets.
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The test of whether this country is truly
stable or rather in a state of temporary fear-based
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obedience might not have yet come.
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Rwanda has not experienced a transition of
power since 2000 and nobody really knows whether
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the country can continue on the right path
after Kagame leaves.
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He himself even said that if he had not groomed
a successor by 2017, “It means that I have
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not created capacity for a post-me Rwanda.
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I see this as a personal failure.”
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It’s now well past 2017 and Kagame is still
in power with no signs of leaving.
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Regardless of the reasons, though, for Rwanda’s
current political stability, it’s sure that
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businesses like it.
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It’s one of the top factors they look at
when deciding which countries to operate in.
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The third factor that led to Singapore’s
business success, ease of doing business,
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is perhaps the most important one and it’s
also the one at which Rwanda most excels.
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This is a broad factor but it’s one that
the World Banks tracks with a well known indicator—the
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Ease of Doing Business Index.
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This looks at ten factors—ease of starting
a business, dealing with construction permits,
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getting electricity, registering property,
getting credit, protecting minority investors,
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paying taxes, trading across borders, enforcing
contracts, and resolving insolvency.
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Singapore ranks as number two in the world
behind New Zealand and is followed up by Denmark,
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Hong Kong, and South Korea.
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Rwanda, meanwhile, scores as the 29th.
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This is an impressive score by itself but
it is incredibly impressive when considering
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how the rest of the continent ranks up.
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Rwanda is by far the highest ranked among
mainland African nations.
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The nearest trailing African nation is Morocco
at number sixty and plenty of highly developed
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countries like the Netherlands, Switzerland,
and Japan rank lower than Rwanda.
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To achieve this Rwanda has made plenty of
economic and legislative reforms to foster
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the business-friendly environment.
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They’ve also been focusing on building both
soft and hard infrastructure.
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The government, in collaboration with private
investors, built an enormous $300 million
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convention center along with a five star Radisson
Blu hotel to attract the convention market
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in addition to less flashy infrastructure
projects building roads and airports.
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Overall, Rwanda is on the hunt for international
investment in the country and so far, that’s
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paid off.
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In 2005, $10.5 million were invested from
abroad in Rwanda.
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In 2017, that number was $293 million.
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Clearly a lot is working in Rwanda.
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It’s safe, clean, and growing economically.
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What more could a country want?
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Well, there are serious questions from abroad
on whether Rwanda’s growth is ethical, replicable,
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sustainable, and even real.
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The way Rwanda has achieved its current stability
and growth have some external observers condemning
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it.
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Appearances of Rwanda can also be deceiving.
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It is still one of the poorest countries in
the world with the average resident earning
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only $750 a year.
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Some question whether the country should be
spending so much on its airline, its infrastructure,
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and its capital when so many in the country
are so poor.
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Some question whether the country is growing
for its middle and upper class while leaving
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its rural poor behind.
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It’s no surprise, though, that many of the
countries neighbors, curbed by violence and
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poverty, have pondered whether they should
be replicating the ways of Kagame.
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External observers have given mixed answers
to that question.
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Some believe that the the current authoritarian
policies will let dissent bottle up and eventually
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explode.
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They worry that the country will erupt into
violence again.
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Some say that the current regime is solely
focused on making things seem like they’re
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improving through climbing up the indicators
without making real, rational change.
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There are even some accusations that Rwandan
GDP growth figures might be inflated or otherwise
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manipulated.
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It’s sure that Rwanda has been growing enormously,
but is it really this much?
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There is no one recipe for economic growth.
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The fact that the United States became the
superpower of the 20th century and China is
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becoming the superpower of the 21st century
proves that more than anything.
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Democratic states grow and autocratic states
grow—they might grow in different ways,
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but there are success stories on both ends
of the spectrum.
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What external observers have so much trouble
answering is the means to the end question.
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Should Rwanda’s growth be lauded given how
it is achieved?
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Can you tolerate some bad in exchange for
much good?
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In the end, Rwanda is the country of Rwandans
and they are the only ones that matter with
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these questions.
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If Rwanda is truly working for all Rwandan’s,
then Rwanda is working.
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There are a lot of, “ifs,” but if Rwanda’s
growth is sustainable and if Rwanda’s politics
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are stable and if Rwanda’s investments pay
off and if businesses pay attention to Rwanda,
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there is a very good chance that the country
is well on it’s way to becoming the Singapore
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of Africa.
00:12:18
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