What jobs did 15-year-olds expect to have in 2000?

The top job was medical doctor, followed by athlete, decorator, and military officer.

How did the expectations change from 2000 to 2018?

In 2018, the top expected jobs remained similar, but the percentage of kids not naming a job increased from 14% to 25%.

What is the significance of ambition in career outcomes?

Ambition plays a crucial role in determining professional outcomes, as shown by studies tracking students' career paths.

What is misalignment in career expectations?

Misalignment occurs when students expect a job that requires a degree but do not plan to attend college.

How does socioeconomic status affect career alignment?

Disadvantaged kids are more likely to be misaligned in their career expectations compared to affluent kids.

What percentage of jobs expected by teens are at risk of automation?

About 40% of 15-year-olds expect to do a job that is at risk of automation.

What can help students align their career expectations with reality?

Exploring various careers through job shadowing, worksite visits, and part-time work can help students make informed decisions.

What was the outcome for misaligned students in terms of employment?

Misaligned students were found to be twice as likely to be unemployed or not in school by age 25.

What do researchers suggest to improve career planning for teens?

Researchers suggest providing more opportunities for career exploration and support to help students think about their futures.

Why is it important for teens to have clear career expectations?

Clear career expectations help teens plan their education and increase their chances of achieving their desired jobs.

Why you’re probably not doing your “dream job”

00:05:59

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eMjqJKviDBo

Summary

TLDRThe video explores the career expectations of 15-year-olds over the past two decades, revealing a significant gap between aspirations and reality. While many teens dream of becoming doctors, lawyers, or athletes, the actual number of individuals in these professions is much lower. The video highlights the importance of ambition and planning for education, noting that many teens lack the necessary support to align their career goals with realistic educational paths. It also discusses the increasing number of teens who do not specify a career, indicating a potential crisis in career planning. The video concludes by emphasizing the need for better support systems to help young people navigate their future career choices.

Takeaways

👩‍⚕️ Many 15-year-olds aspire to be doctors, but few actually become one.
📉 Less than 0.5% of working-age people are doctors despite high expectations.
📊 The percentage of teens not naming a job increased from 14% to 25% from 2000 to 2018.
🎓 Ambition significantly influences career outcomes and educational planning.
⚖️ Disadvantaged kids are more likely to be misaligned in career expectations.
🤖 40% of teens expect jobs at risk of automation.
🔍 Career exploration through job shadowing is crucial for informed decisions.
📈 Misaligned students are twice as likely to be unemployed by age 25.
💡 Support systems are needed to help teens navigate their career paths.
🌍 Understanding career expectations reflects broader societal changes.

Timeline

00:00:00 - 00:05:59
The speaker discusses expectations of 15-year-olds regarding their future careers, noting that this question has been posed to millions of teenagers over the years. The significance of these expectations lies in understanding generational outlooks on the future. A visualization reflects that in the year 2000, the most common career choices among 15-year-olds included becoming a medical doctor, athlete, or teacher. By clustering job categories, researchers reviewed the top choices, revealing that nearly half of the respondents anticipated the same ten jobs. However, only a small percentage of these kids actually became doctors, indicating a disconnect between expectation and reality. Comparisons with data from 2018 highlight that while many of the same jobs remained popular, the percentage of those who did not name a job increased, raising concern that many teens lack clear career ambitions.

Mind Map

Video Q&A

What jobs did 15-year-olds expect to have in 2000?
The top job was medical doctor, followed by athlete, decorator, and military officer.
How did the expectations change from 2000 to 2018?
In 2018, the top expected jobs remained similar, but the percentage of kids not naming a job increased from 14% to 25%.
What is the significance of ambition in career outcomes?
Ambition plays a crucial role in determining professional outcomes, as shown by studies tracking students' career paths.
What is misalignment in career expectations?
Misalignment occurs when students expect a job that requires a degree but do not plan to attend college.
How does socioeconomic status affect career alignment?
Disadvantaged kids are more likely to be misaligned in their career expectations compared to affluent kids.
What percentage of jobs expected by teens are at risk of automation?
About 40% of 15-year-olds expect to do a job that is at risk of automation.
What can help students align their career expectations with reality?
Exploring various careers through job shadowing, worksite visits, and part-time work can help students make informed decisions.
What was the outcome for misaligned students in terms of employment?
Misaligned students were found to be twice as likely to be unemployed or not in school by age 25.
What do researchers suggest to improve career planning for teens?
Researchers suggest providing more opportunities for career exploration and support to help students think about their futures.
Why is it important for teens to have clear career expectations?
Clear career expectations help teens plan their education and increase their chances of achieving their desired jobs.

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00:00:01
When you were 15 years old
00:00:03
what job did you expect to have as a 30 year old?
00:00:06
—Writer. —Singer.
00:00:07
Teacher.
00:00:08
I asked this question to colleagues, but for more than 20 years...
00:00:11
that question has also been asked
00:00:13
to millions of teenagers worldwide.
00:00:16
What job do you expect to be doing at 30?
00:00:18
Lawyer.
00:00:19
—Journalist. —Managing a production company.
00:00:23
This question is important because over time it can tell us
00:00:25
how a generation of young people thinks about the future.
00:00:29
So how do actually 15 year olds answer?
00:00:32
Let's find out.
00:00:36
This visualization shows all the jobs
00:00:38
15 year olds listed in the year 2000.
00:00:42
The top job was medical doctor, but there's also athlete...
00:00:46
Decorator, military officer...
00:00:49
Way lower on the list
00:00:50
there are jobs like pharmacist and real estate agent.
00:00:55
There are so many jobs listed
00:00:56
that researchers tried to simplify it by clustering the jobs
00:00:59
into even broader categories.
00:01:01
Here's the top ten list for girls.
00:01:04
Nearly half of all kids expected to do the same ten jobs.
00:01:10
That was more than 20 years ago.
00:01:11
So these kids are now in their mid-30s.
00:01:14
Did their expectations come true?
00:01:16
Not really.
00:01:17
For example, about 11% of girls and about 5% of boys
00:01:21
expected to be doctors.
00:01:23
But these days, less than 0.5% of working age people
00:01:27
in the countries where they did this survey
00:01:29
are actually doctors.
00:01:32
In 2018, this question was asked again to 15 year olds...
00:01:35
and this time to a much bigger group.
00:01:38
Again, the top answers were doctor...
00:01:41
lawyer...
00:01:43
athlete.
00:01:44
And there were a bunch of other interesting jobs, too.
00:01:48
When researchers simplified this list...
00:01:50
half of all kids expected to do the same ten jobs again.
00:01:55
But from 2000 to 2018
00:01:57
one thing did change.
00:01:59
In 2000, a portion of kids didn't actually name a job.
00:02:03
About 14%.
00:02:05
In 2018, that group jumped to 25%.
00:02:09
Here's why that's a problem.
00:02:13
There's a great piece of research
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that tracked thousands of 8th graders starting in 1988.
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They specifically focused on kids
00:02:19
who had science related ambitions but were just average in math.
00:02:24
They compared that group to kids
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who had no science-related ambitions...
00:02:28
but they were high achieving in math.
00:02:30
Turns out the kids with science-related ambitions...
00:02:33
were far more likely to get a science or engineering degree...
00:02:36
even though they weren't as good at math.
00:02:38
What this study showed was that ambition, even at an early age...
00:02:42
plays a huge part in people's professional outcomes.
00:02:45
Part of why it's so important
00:02:47
is that it helps them plan for the future.
00:02:50
For example
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if they expect to have a job that requires a college degree...
00:02:54
then they should make plans to go to college.
00:02:56
For that reason, the PISA survey also asks
00:02:58
if kids expect to attend college.
00:03:02
And it found something interesting.
00:03:04
Among the kids who expect to have a job
00:03:06
that requires a college degree...
00:03:08
1 in 5 had no plans to attend college...
00:03:12
which means they probably won't be doing the job
00:03:14
they expect to do.
00:03:16
When teens expect to have a certain job
00:03:18
but they don't plan on getting the required education or experience
00:03:21
researchers who study career paths
00:03:24
call that misalignment.
00:03:26
One study of Australian teenagers
00:03:28
found that kids who are misaligned at 15
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were twice as likely to be unemployed
00:03:33
or not in school at age 25.
00:03:36
Another study tracked American 15 year olds.
00:03:38
They found that the students who were aligned or over aligned
00:03:41
which means they plan to get more
00:03:43
than enough education for their expected job...
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These kids had higher wages throughout their career
00:03:48
compared to misaligned kids.
00:03:52
But researchers who study these career pathways
00:03:55
have a pretty good idea of things we can do to help students
00:03:58
think more clearly about their future.
00:04:00
For one, young people need to explore various careers...
00:04:03
maybe by visiting workplaces.
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And it's useful if they've experienced a workplace
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by working part-time or volunteering.
00:04:10
Those experiences should help them
00:04:13
think about what job they expect to do
00:04:15
and make plans accordingly.
00:04:17
But most students don't get these opportunities.
00:04:20
Only about 40% of students in this survey
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said they participated in job shadowing or worksite visits.
00:04:26
And a similar percentage of kids
00:04:27
said they participated in job fairs.
00:04:30
In other words, 15 year olds
00:04:32
aren't getting the support they need to answer this question.
00:04:35
When we don't do the work of helping kids
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think through their futures
00:04:38
it's disadvantaged kids who suffer the most.
00:04:41
Among the most affluent kids
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only about 1 in 10 are misaligned.
00:04:46
But among the poorest kids
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about 1 in 3 are misaligned.
00:04:51
So we entrench the inequality that already exists.
00:04:57
This is every kid who answered the survey in 2018.
00:05:00
The researchers also looked at
00:05:02
which of these jobs are at risk of automation.
00:05:04
It turns out about 40% of 15 year olds
00:05:08
expect to do a job at risk of automation in their country.
00:05:14
When you were 15
00:05:16
what did you expect you would grow up to be?
00:05:19
It gets at this profound question of who you expect to be...
00:05:23
and what you expect the world to look like.
00:05:27
Maybe it's not fair to ask 15 year olds this question...
00:05:31
but fair or not, these surveys tell us
00:05:34
they need more help coming up with their answers.