September Monthly Charting Session | 09/04/2024

01:13:13
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6S4iZuK_x6M

Summary

TLDRThe webinar, conducted by The Trading Initiative, focuses on exploring undervalued stocks and sectors in the financial market that are often overlooked by the majority of traders. It aims to identify low-risk and high-reward trading opportunities, especially in times when popular sectors like technology are experiencing downturns. The session emphasizes the importance of understanding market trends, momentum, and relative strength while downplaying the influence of news and media. Investors are encouraged to focus on areas such as utilities, financials, healthcare, and consumer staples, which are currently showing strong performance. The session also addresses market seasonality, particularly September’s tendency to be a weak month for markets and the importance of building a strategy to navigate the end-of-summer volatility. Various market sectors are analyzed for their recent performance and potential future trends. The host provides insights into trading strategies that include shifting focus from high beta stocks, often found in tech, to lower volatility areas like real estate and industrials, which might provide better trading outcomes in current market conditions. The session underscores the need for disciplined trading, focusing on charts and price analysis rather than relying on news. Traders are encouraged to continually seek knowledge and adjust their strategies according to market behaviors and historical data instead of following crowd sentiment. Additionally, the importance of understanding cash flow within sectors and adapting investment strategies is highlighted. The session concludes by advising traders to prepare for any market corrections by identifying relative strength stocks that could lead in post-correction recoveries.

Takeaways

  • 📈 Focus on undervalued stocks in forgotten sectors.
  • 🔄 Importance of market trends, momentum, and strength.
  • 📉 September is typically a weak month for markets.
  • 💼 Current strong sectors: Utilities, Financials, Healthcare.
  • 📊 200-day moving average as a trend indicator.
  • ⏳ Shift from high to low beta stocks recommended.
  • 🗺️ Tech expected to recover similar to semiconductor trends.
  • 📉 Diversify from tech to sectors like industrials and consumer staples.
  • 🔍 Emphasize disciplined trading; focus on charts, not news.
  • 🚀 Prepare watchlist of strong stocks for post-correction leads.

Timeline

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    The speaker welcomes attendees to a stock market session focusing on lesser-known areas of the market. They emphasize the importance of identifying strong stocks and offer membership to their trading initiative for more insights and trade ideas.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    September is identified as a historically weak month for the market, typically showing average negative returns. Despite this, the speaker encourages patience, suggesting that strong months usually follow, especially during election years. They advise focusing on strong stocks and caution against following market pessimism.

  • 00:10:00 - 00:15:00

    Current market trends show utilities unexpectedly leading amidst a bull market. The speaker highlights a shift from high beta to lower volatility stocks and stresses the importance of adaptability in trading strategies. Semiconductors have shown significant performance but are currently pulling back.

  • 00:15:00 - 00:20:00

    The speaker discusses market performance, noting a shift towards lower volatility stocks and sectors such as financials and healthcare. They caution against chasing high beta stocks during periods of sideways movement and suggest focusing on trending areas.

  • 00:20:00 - 00:25:00

    Historical and technical analysis suggests resistance levels in technology and market indices, but the speaker remains optimistic about long-term breakout potential. The importance of recognizing market cycles and trading based on trend strength is emphasized.

  • 00:25:00 - 00:30:00

    They highlight the challenge of summer trading and compare current market conditions with previous years. The speaker stresses the importance of relative strength and market adherence to higher volatility during specific times of the year.

  • 00:30:00 - 00:35:00

    Market breadth and various indicators point towards an improving market rather than a downturn. The speaker advises against pessimism and highlights successful trades in less popular sectors, reinforcing the value of technical analysis and trend following.

  • 00:35:00 - 00:40:00

    Volatility and options trading are discussed, with volatility seen as an opportunity rather than a risk. The speaker advises caution in certain market conditions and stresses the significance of strategic options positions.

  • 00:40:00 - 00:45:00

    The session covers inter-market relationships, noting discrepancies such as consumer discretionary stocks underperforming despite a bull market. The speaker suggests monitoring these relationships for early signals of market shifts.

  • 00:45:00 - 00:50:00

    Bonds and yields are discussed, with bonds showing potential bottoming patterns that suggest buying opportunities. The speaker expresses confidence in bonds as a long-term investment, citing rising market breadth and improving momentum indicators.

  • 00:50:00 - 00:55:00

    Real estate and industrial sectors are highlighted as strong performers, with various trade ideas presented in these sectors. There is an emphasis on flexibility and readiness to capitalize on opportunities across different market areas.

  • 00:55:00 - 01:00:00

    Consumer staples and healthcare sectors are presented as current market leaders, while communication stocks receive an honorable mention. Trade ideas focus on breakout opportunities in these less volatile sectors.

  • 01:00:00 - 01:05:00

    Financials, particularly insurance and banking stocks, are identified as strong performers. The speaker underscores the shift in investment focus towards these sectors for more stable growth opportunities.

  • 01:05:00 - 01:13:13

    The speaker concludes with an optimistic outlook, warning against complacency while advocating for strategic positioning in strong sectors. They encourage continuous monitoring of market trends, seasonal patterns, and opportunities in underexplored areas.

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Mind Map

Video Q&A

  • What is the focus of the webinar?

    The webinar focuses on exploring less commonly traded stocks and sectors, emphasizing investment strategies like momentum and relative strength.

  • How often is the monthly chthon run?

    It is run every two weeks.

  • What is the average performance of NASDAQ in September over the last 10 years?

    NASDAQ typically shows a negative performance in September, averaging a -2.25% drop.

  • Which sectors are currently leading or lagging in the market?

    Utilities, financials, and Consumer Staples are currently leading, while tech and semiconductors have seen recent declines.

  • What is the general content of the newsletters mentioned?

    The newsletters provide market information, trade ideas, and financial insights related to current trading opportunities.

  • What is the TTI approach to analyzing markets?

    TTI focuses on price, strength, and momentum, avoiding noise from news and emphasizing adult responsibility in trading decisions.

  • How do TTI strategies approach sector rotation?

    TTI approaches sector rotation by shifting investments from currently underperforming to outperforming sectors, while observing broad market trends.

  • What is the significance of the 200-day moving average mentioned in the video?

    The 200-day moving average is used to determine long-term trend direction, indicating whether stocks are in an uptrend or a downtrend.

  • How do market trends affect trading strategies in the webinar?

    Trends significantly influence trading strategies, with emphasis on capitalizing on momentum and switching between high and low volatility stocks as conditions change.

  • What does the host say about the future of tech stocks?

    The host believes tech stocks will eventually recover from current resistance levels, drawing parallels with past semiconductor performance.

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  • 00:00:00
    hello
  • 00:00:01
    hello hopefully no technology issues
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    this time
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    around welcome to tonight's
  • 00:00:08
    session we good starting here in about
  • 00:00:10
    two minutes wait for people to funnel
  • 00:00:15
    in it's going to be a fun one probably
  • 00:00:17
    looking at a lot of stocks that normally
  • 00:00:20
    you do not look
  • 00:00:22
    at should be
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    exciting we're going to be focused on
  • 00:00:27
    areas of the market that most people
  • 00:00:30
    do not normally pay attention
  • 00:00:34
    to and hopefully throughout the process
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    you'll be able to
  • 00:00:39
    find some stocks that maybe are
  • 00:00:42
    worth an opportunity to
  • 00:00:47
    take so go ahead and wait here hopefully
  • 00:00:49
    everyone's having a a great night looks
  • 00:00:51
    like it is working finally no technology
  • 00:00:53
    issues whatsoever so that's great
  • 00:01:01
    it's been a wild couple of days has it
  • 00:01:13
    not okay so regardless of where you're
  • 00:01:16
    watching this from or when you're
  • 00:01:17
    watching this if you're interested in
  • 00:01:19
    the services at the end of this uh
  • 00:01:21
    webinar here I'm going to go ahead and
  • 00:01:22
    post a link inside of the chat you
  • 00:01:24
    should be able to access that at the
  • 00:01:27
    end if you're interested in particip
  • 00:01:29
    ipating within the trading initiative
  • 00:01:31
    that is the quarterly membership and
  • 00:01:33
    that will get you access to everything
  • 00:01:35
    that we're going over
  • 00:01:37
    tonight 5 to 10 trade ideas per week
  • 00:01:40
    you'll see a sample of those in today's
  • 00:01:44
    webinar one to two
  • 00:01:47
    newsletters per day with all pertinent
  • 00:01:49
    information at least what I think
  • 00:01:52
    pertinent
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    hopefully you'll find Value and make
  • 00:01:55
    some better trades so without further
  • 00:01:57
    Ado let's go ahead and get started here
  • 00:01:59
    welcome to September 4th 2024 our
  • 00:02:01
    monthly
  • 00:02:03
    chthon we run these every two
  • 00:02:07
    weeks the goal here is to build a bigger
  • 00:02:10
    time frame
  • 00:02:12
    plan the theme Here navigating the end
  • 00:02:15
    of summer volatility disclaimer first
  • 00:02:17
    don't be stupid don't risk more than you
  • 00:02:19
    can lose and don't miscon through
  • 00:02:20
    anything we say today as buy or sell
  • 00:02:21
    recommendations we're looking at charts
  • 00:02:23
    here you are adults you have control
  • 00:02:26
    over your own money the three tenants of
  • 00:02:27
    TTI for those of you that are new and
  • 00:02:29
    joining us for the first time we focus
  • 00:02:31
    on price and price alone news is noise
  • 00:02:33
    and everyone else lies absolute and
  • 00:02:35
    relative strength we want to own the
  • 00:02:36
    strongest stocks and uptrends and when
  • 00:02:38
    we're in bare markets and in downtrends
  • 00:02:40
    we want to short the weakest stocks yes
  • 00:02:42
    that is the winning combination then
  • 00:02:44
    lastly momentum we want to buy stocks
  • 00:02:47
    that are
  • 00:02:48
    showing rapid movement towards the price
  • 00:02:50
    targets whether that's low volatility or
  • 00:02:52
    high beta we're going to be going
  • 00:02:53
    through both types of trades today we
  • 00:02:55
    need momentum on our side to make these
  • 00:02:56
    worth our time as trading
  • 00:02:58
    vehicles I was going through the stock
  • 00:03:00
    Traders almanac for this year earlier
  • 00:03:02
    today and I found a funny quote starting
  • 00:03:04
    off September portfolio managers back
  • 00:03:06
    after Labor Day tend to clean house in
  • 00:03:08
    September if you're not aware what I'm
  • 00:03:10
    about to show you is the last 10 years
  • 00:03:14
    of the NASDAQ
  • 00:03:16
    performance segmented out by month and
  • 00:03:19
    if you think September is a great month
  • 00:03:21
    I have some bad news for
  • 00:03:22
    you that red box there highlights the
  • 00:03:26
    last 10 years worth of September's moves
  • 00:03:28
    in the NASDAQ now the S&P 5 is
  • 00:03:30
    relatively the same but I'm highlighting
  • 00:03:32
    NASDAQ because most people that are
  • 00:03:34
    trading Trade Tech consumer
  • 00:03:37
    discretionary and Communications names
  • 00:03:38
    even if they don't mean to generally
  • 00:03:41
    Traders are attracted to higher beta
  • 00:03:43
    stocks they move more than the Benchmark
  • 00:03:46
    they move faster typically options
  • 00:03:48
    trades are more profitable when they
  • 00:03:50
    work but
  • 00:03:51
    also they hurt a lot more when they
  • 00:03:54
    don't work so heading into September
  • 00:03:55
    here that quote that generally portfolio
  • 00:03:57
    managers look to lean
  • 00:04:00
    into September by pairing bad
  • 00:04:03
    positions and setting themsel up for
  • 00:04:06
    Success Through year end is 100% true
  • 00:04:09
    September is on average the weakest
  • 00:04:12
    month of the year going back 10 years an
  • 00:04:17
    average of negative -2.25 now the S&P
  • 00:04:20
    500 is slightly better than that but
  • 00:04:22
    still negative overall over the last 10
  • 00:04:26
    years even if you take out that outlier
  • 00:04:28
    in 2022 it is still a very weak month
  • 00:04:32
    now before people misconstrue that as me
  • 00:04:35
    saying there's going to be new lows new
  • 00:04:37
    bare Market lows we're going to
  • 00:04:38
    capitulate please understand that
  • 00:04:40
    2.25% is not that big of a drop it just
  • 00:04:42
    goes to show you that generally speaking
  • 00:04:44
    September is weaker than other months
  • 00:04:47
    feel free to figure out why that is
  • 00:04:50
    there's a million different ideas I tend
  • 00:04:52
    to think it's because the big wigs on
  • 00:04:54
    Wall Street come back from Summer and
  • 00:04:56
    they go holy look what the prices
  • 00:04:58
    are on these stocks let's get rid of
  • 00:04:59
    them
  • 00:05:00
    realistically it's a bunch of different
  • 00:05:02
    combinations fund flows everything else
  • 00:05:05
    but that's a tradable stat so knowing
  • 00:05:07
    that September is going to be weaker
  • 00:05:09
    maybe you take less positions sit on the
  • 00:05:11
    sidelines a little bit ACR cash because
  • 00:05:13
    you know what happens traditionally in
  • 00:05:15
    October November December very very good
  • 00:05:19
    months to be vested long in the market
  • 00:05:21
    particularly during the fourth year of
  • 00:05:22
    an election cycle we've beat that topic
  • 00:05:24
    to death so we're going to save that
  • 00:05:25
    until probably October to talk through
  • 00:05:27
    it one more time us sector performance
  • 00:05:29
    year to date who had utilities leading
  • 00:05:30
    in the second year of a bull market not
  • 00:05:32
    many people guys we have been bowled up
  • 00:05:35
    since January of 2023 not the absolute
  • 00:05:38
    low which is October of 2022 but by the
  • 00:05:40
    time semiconductors started to break out
  • 00:05:42
    Nvidia started to break out we were like
  • 00:05:44
    listen there's a a good indication this
  • 00:05:46
    Market is bottomed out potentially going
  • 00:05:48
    higher we put a bunch of content out on
  • 00:05:49
    YouTube around that time as well we were
  • 00:05:50
    buying long generally speaking in Bull
  • 00:05:53
    markets not necessarily you know uh you
  • 00:05:57
    know outside of the second year third
  • 00:05:58
    year fourth year argument utilities
  • 00:06:00
    generally do not lead so this has been a
  • 00:06:03
    Crux in the side of bullish investors
  • 00:06:07
    and Traders all year people that want
  • 00:06:09
    this Market to drop continually say
  • 00:06:11
    utilities cannot be
  • 00:06:12
    leading specifically in the second year
  • 00:06:15
    of a bull market and traditionally
  • 00:06:17
    that's true but guess what I guess it's
  • 00:06:20
    the first time ever right utilities are
  • 00:06:22
    leading here financials up 2.48
  • 00:06:25
    communications your Googles and metas
  • 00:06:27
    your telecoms like Verizon and T-Mobile
  • 00:06:30
    your Netflix is up 18.2 Consumer Staples
  • 00:06:33
    of 17.2 this is a drastic change from
  • 00:06:36
    the July 10th top that we saw in the
  • 00:06:38
    markets where Tech was leading over the
  • 00:06:41
    last few months we have seen rotation
  • 00:06:44
    out of higher beta stocks and into lower
  • 00:06:47
    volatility stocks there's a reason if
  • 00:06:48
    you're inside of TTI that we've been
  • 00:06:50
    opening up a lot of lower volatility
  • 00:06:53
    stocks over the last six to eight weeks
  • 00:06:54
    we've been opening up Consumer Staples
  • 00:06:57
    financials real estate it all comes down
  • 00:07:00
    to these Trends we see on kin every two
  • 00:07:03
    weeks three-month performance who had
  • 00:07:05
    real estate up the most since June not
  • 00:07:08
    me but here we are up 16.13 financials
  • 00:07:10
    up damn near 10% Consumer Staples up
  • 00:07:14
    8.38 Healthcare up
  • 00:07:16
    8.35 not once did I say anything about
  • 00:07:19
    tech as a matter of fact over the last
  • 00:07:21
    three months Tech is down not once did I
  • 00:07:23
    say anything about consumer
  • 00:07:25
    discretionary consumer discretionary is
  • 00:07:26
    up
  • 00:07:28
    5.22% there are other areas of the
  • 00:07:30
    market that you can be actively trading
  • 00:07:31
    through summer months that might yield
  • 00:07:33
    you better results you do not need to
  • 00:07:35
    beat a dead horse on the tech stocks the
  • 00:07:38
    consumer discretionary stocks and the
  • 00:07:40
    communication stocks yet there will be a
  • 00:07:42
    time and place but when the market is
  • 00:07:44
    giving you a different type of trade to
  • 00:07:46
    take take the trade adjust the time
  • 00:07:49
    frame and take the trade energy also
  • 00:07:51
    down 2% over the last three months oil
  • 00:07:53
    is basically a dead
  • 00:07:55
    trade semiconductors still leading up
  • 00:07:58
    28. 95% year-to-date performance I want
  • 00:08:01
    you to go ahead and look at how high
  • 00:08:03
    semiconductors were at their Peak on
  • 00:08:05
    July 10th they were up 65 is% on the
  • 00:08:09
    year they have drawn down massively and
  • 00:08:12
    they are still outperforming every other
  • 00:08:14
    Industry Group that is how much
  • 00:08:16
    outperformance there was through the
  • 00:08:18
    first seven months of the year that's
  • 00:08:20
    why personally when people are talking
  • 00:08:22
    about semiconductors being a bad trade
  • 00:08:24
    because they're overvalued as a
  • 00:08:26
    technical Trader I don't give a
  • 00:08:27
    about anything being overvalued I care
  • 00:08:30
    about what price and Trends are telling
  • 00:08:31
    us if you missed any part of the
  • 00:08:33
    semiconductor trade for the first seven
  • 00:08:35
    months but realistically going back to
  • 00:08:36
    last year you missed out on an
  • 00:08:38
    incredible opportunity to make a lot of
  • 00:08:39
    money over the last two or three months
  • 00:08:42
    it has been a tough trade which is why
  • 00:08:44
    once again we haven't opened up a bunch
  • 00:08:46
    of semiconductors as a matter of fact we
  • 00:08:47
    haven't opened up a single semiconductor
  • 00:08:49
    as a community over the last two or
  • 00:08:51
    three months because they're in
  • 00:08:52
    downtrends right now we'll talk about
  • 00:08:54
    that in a second do we expect them to
  • 00:08:55
    continue to be probably not but we do
  • 00:08:57
    not want to be buying the dip until tell
  • 00:08:59
    there is some form of Divergence in
  • 00:09:01
    momentum to the upside or we start to
  • 00:09:03
    see higher highs as of right now it's
  • 00:09:04
    just not there who had Insurance up
  • 00:09:06
    second kiee up 25.5 6% year to date
  • 00:09:11
    Insurance we're going to go through a
  • 00:09:12
    bunch of insurance names later today
  • 00:09:13
    these are not sexy areas to be trading
  • 00:09:16
    you're not going to you know text your
  • 00:09:18
    group chat that you bought Progressive
  • 00:09:20
    or afflac or Travelers Insurance these
  • 00:09:23
    are not trades that typically get people
  • 00:09:25
    all riled up but guess what's performing
  • 00:09:27
    the best this year Travelers progress
  • 00:09:29
    Rive and afflac so regardless of whether
  • 00:09:32
    or not you want to own them that is
  • 00:09:34
    where the strength is so if you can get
  • 00:09:36
    out of your own head for a second not
  • 00:09:39
    worry about the apples and the
  • 00:09:40
    microsofts and the metas because those
  • 00:09:42
    are not the only trading Vehicles you're
  • 00:09:43
    in here to trade look for strengthen the
  • 00:09:46
    market oil to a certain extent amlp has
  • 00:09:49
    a different type of Industry Group of
  • 00:09:51
    the energy sector they own more rights
  • 00:09:53
    than anything else up 17.06% this year
  • 00:09:56
    the Benchmark up 16.62%
  • 00:09:59
    home builders up 5 15.49 then everything
  • 00:10:02
    else pretty much falls off underneath
  • 00:10:03
    that by the way software stocks only up
  • 00:10:05
    4.46 on the year and internet stocks
  • 00:10:07
    only up 5.83 so if you've been long
  • 00:10:09
    software or or Internet stocks only this
  • 00:10:12
    year which are realistically Traders
  • 00:10:14
    favorites because once again their
  • 00:10:16
    higher beta you've underperformed this
  • 00:10:17
    year you have by the things that are
  • 00:10:19
    outperforming The Benchmark over the
  • 00:10:20
    last three months who had Regional banks
  • 00:10:22
    on their list as the number one leading
  • 00:10:24
    industry group since June not me once
  • 00:10:27
    again this is why we own bank stocks I
  • 00:10:28
    don't try to predict this stuff we just
  • 00:10:30
    follow Trends Regional banks have
  • 00:10:31
    outperformed every other Industry Group
  • 00:10:33
    since June REITs 15.75 home builders up
  • 00:10:37
    11.5 Insurance up 11.4 those are four
  • 00:10:40
    low volatility more defensive esque
  • 00:10:43
    types of sectors you're not getting
  • 00:10:46
    these
  • 00:10:47
    highflying double digigit ADR type names
  • 00:10:50
    like you see typically in software which
  • 00:10:52
    is up 8.74 but internet you know these
  • 00:10:54
    small and midcap names that really rip
  • 00:10:56
    and everybody loves to trade them
  • 00:10:57
    because they move a lot they're not
  • 00:10:58
    performing in well since those July
  • 00:11:01
    highs and we see that reflected in the
  • 00:11:04
    year-to date and three-month
  • 00:11:05
    performances factor analysis all year up
  • 00:11:08
    until that July Peak once again as you
  • 00:11:10
    can see the safety trade was large cap
  • 00:11:12
    growth that's it large cap growth by the
  • 00:11:14
    apples by the microsofts by the Amazon
  • 00:11:17
    most of these names were breaking out
  • 00:11:19
    into all-time highs as a matter of fact
  • 00:11:20
    a couple of them are still there not
  • 00:11:22
    necessarily hitting alltime Highs but
  • 00:11:23
    hanging out up there right since the
  • 00:11:26
    July top July 10th through the 16th
  • 00:11:29
    depending on what actual ticker you're
  • 00:11:31
    looking at we have seen a roll into
  • 00:11:33
    other areas of the market right some
  • 00:11:36
    rotation out of those large cap growth
  • 00:11:38
    stocks and into some under
  • 00:11:41
    served small mid and large cap value
  • 00:11:44
    related names the safe trade of the mag
  • 00:11:47
    s stocks has been disigned from the
  • 00:11:51
    broader Market move as a matter of fact
  • 00:11:53
    we're going to see this in a second the
  • 00:11:55
    broader Market is outperforming the mag
  • 00:11:58
    s stocks over the the last few months
  • 00:12:00
    not weeks not days months Market bread
  • 00:12:03
    is improving and you can see it
  • 00:12:06
    partially through this factor analysis
  • 00:12:08
    performance year to date then once again
  • 00:12:09
    when we look at the three-month look at
  • 00:12:11
    where large cap growth is large cap
  • 00:12:14
    growth is sitting right in the middle of
  • 00:12:15
    the pack right down 1.03 what's leading
  • 00:12:19
    right now nobody's favorite area to
  • 00:12:21
    trade large cap value large C value
  • 00:12:24
    these are your banks these are your real
  • 00:12:26
    estate names to a certain extent these
  • 00:12:28
    are your Healthcare names these are
  • 00:12:30
    names nobody wants to go and buy but
  • 00:12:31
    these are the names that are
  • 00:12:32
    outperforming the S&P 500 right now so
  • 00:12:34
    you got to go and buy them I mean if you
  • 00:12:36
    want to outperform and you don't want to
  • 00:12:38
    sit on your hands these are the areas
  • 00:12:40
    you want to be interested in right now
  • 00:12:41
    so I want to start this whole thing off
  • 00:12:44
    with you know the elep addressing the
  • 00:12:47
    elephant in the room
  • 00:12:49
    here this one out today in the
  • 00:12:51
    newsletter everybody is screaming that
  • 00:12:55
    the AI or you know AI bubble popped end
  • 00:12:58
    of the market it's like clockwork every
  • 00:13:00
    time the market pulls back even if we
  • 00:13:02
    expect it to pull back due to
  • 00:13:03
    seasonality people start freaking out
  • 00:13:05
    and they expect the world is going to
  • 00:13:06
    end guys it's probably not going to end
  • 00:13:09
    I'm GNA I've been saying that for well
  • 00:13:11
    forever but realistically since January
  • 00:13:13
    of 2023 when it was obvious at least to
  • 00:13:15
    me that the market was shifting into a
  • 00:13:16
    bull market that the world was not going
  • 00:13:18
    to end on every pullback it's just not
  • 00:13:20
    Tac tends to lead in a bull market
  • 00:13:22
    totally understandable but as you can
  • 00:13:24
    see this relationship the tech sector
  • 00:13:27
    against the S&P 500 does it not make
  • 00:13:30
    sense if you're a technical Trader to
  • 00:13:31
    find resistance at previous areas of
  • 00:13:33
    contention guys this is TA 101 so for
  • 00:13:36
    everybody expecting technology to roll
  • 00:13:38
    over here you know you're expecting a
  • 00:13:41
    new bare Market low probably if
  • 00:13:42
    technology is going to meet resistance
  • 00:13:44
    at those previous highs and then roll
  • 00:13:46
    back down that's probably going to in in
  • 00:13:49
    ensure a bare Market is on its way the
  • 00:13:51
    other way to focus on this is we are
  • 00:13:54
    fighting against previous cycle highs
  • 00:13:56
    and we will eventually flip them and
  • 00:13:58
    turn that resist resistance area into a
  • 00:14:00
    support this is basic technical analysis
  • 00:14:03
    what just happened this year
  • 00:14:05
    semiconductors and this is the big
  • 00:14:07
    takeaway from this technology has three
  • 00:14:09
    different main industry groups software
  • 00:14:11
    internet and
  • 00:14:12
    semiconductors what has been the
  • 00:14:14
    Industry Group to trade over the last 18
  • 00:14:16
    months
  • 00:14:17
    semiconductors does this chart not look
  • 00:14:20
    almost damn near the same as Tech yes it
  • 00:14:23
    found resistance at those previous 2,000
  • 00:14:25
    highs it took a little while for the
  • 00:14:28
    semiconductor industry group to
  • 00:14:29
    eventually break out over it and once it
  • 00:14:31
    did flipped it into a support level and
  • 00:14:34
    took off that's almost an entire year of
  • 00:14:37
    over performance against the S&P 500 now
  • 00:14:39
    tell me if arguably the most important
  • 00:14:41
    industry group in the world and a very
  • 00:14:44
    large component of the technology sector
  • 00:14:47
    do you expect Tech not to make the same
  • 00:14:51
    move I do I absolutely do now I'm not in
  • 00:14:54
    the you know the business of trying to
  • 00:14:57
    time exactly when that happens I don't
  • 00:14:59
    do that I don't like timing the market I
  • 00:15:00
    think most people that time the market
  • 00:15:02
    are full of you can't predict stuff
  • 00:15:05
    to that high of degree your entire life
  • 00:15:08
    and not be a trillionaire so if you're
  • 00:15:10
    making your living off of predicting the
  • 00:15:12
    exact time things are going to Pivot
  • 00:15:14
    you're going to have a very tough time
  • 00:15:15
    in the market over a long term instead I
  • 00:15:18
    look at these relationships as
  • 00:15:20
    components within a broader picture
  • 00:15:22
    semiconductors broke out against that
  • 00:15:24
    resistance area flipped it and went on
  • 00:15:25
    an absolutely insane run for 12 months
  • 00:15:28
    it's a major comp component of the tech
  • 00:15:29
    sector going back really quick does it
  • 00:15:31
    not appear to be damn near the same
  • 00:15:34
    chart and if we are in the second year
  • 00:15:36
    of a bull market in generally bull
  • 00:15:37
    markets last three and a half to four
  • 00:15:39
    years is it not reasonable to expect
  • 00:15:41
    that this will also make the same flip
  • 00:15:43
    that semiconductors do I mean we have
  • 00:15:44
    soft four stocks pressing up into
  • 00:15:46
    all-time highs right now internet stocks
  • 00:15:48
    are lagging a little bit semiconductors
  • 00:15:50
    were at all-time highs till a couple of
  • 00:15:52
    weeks ago I guess months ago at this
  • 00:15:53
    point
  • 00:15:54
    July yeah I think it's reasonable to
  • 00:15:57
    assume that Tech is going to continue to
  • 00:15:58
    break out that's where my money is so if
  • 00:16:00
    I'm wrong I'm going to lose money on
  • 00:16:01
    that idea and that's totally fine with
  • 00:16:03
    me but that's how I go about this stuff
  • 00:16:04
    I look at relationships look at the
  • 00:16:06
    constituents inside and go what's the
  • 00:16:08
    path of lease resistance is it up or
  • 00:16:09
    down for Tech right now it looks like
  • 00:16:11
    it's consolidating a previous level
  • 00:16:13
    speaking of consolidating at previous
  • 00:16:15
    levels of contention here's that S&P 500
  • 00:16:19
    weekly chart we set this back in
  • 00:16:21
    December of
  • 00:16:23
    2023 that Fibonacci range go back and
  • 00:16:26
    fact check me every single monthly and
  • 00:16:29
    midm monly charting session that we've
  • 00:16:30
    put out on public YouTube this has not
  • 00:16:33
    changed and here we are finding
  • 00:16:34
    resistance at that FIB level 557 for
  • 00:16:36
    those of you that don't believe in FIB
  • 00:16:38
    levels that's totally fine but a lot of
  • 00:16:39
    people do and you'll find that
  • 00:16:41
    institutional selling tends to occur
  • 00:16:43
    near or around those FIB levels it
  • 00:16:45
    doesn't have to be perfect but it allows
  • 00:16:47
    us to set price targets and set
  • 00:16:48
    expectations is it a surprise to see
  • 00:16:51
    some slight resistance up here at the
  • 00:16:53
    5.57 no not at all and as you're going
  • 00:16:56
    to see across multiple charts they look
  • 00:16:58
    damn near the same the cues found
  • 00:17:00
    resistance at the FIB level once again
  • 00:17:02
    set those back in December of 2023 and
  • 00:17:05
    by the way I want to highlight something
  • 00:17:06
    which we're going to go through in a
  • 00:17:07
    second summer trading is choppy it's
  • 00:17:11
    volatile very little actually happens
  • 00:17:14
    volume is low you want to know why
  • 00:17:16
    people on Wall Street go on vacation the
  • 00:17:19
    rest of us degenerates are sitting on
  • 00:17:20
    our computers trying to you know
  • 00:17:23
    squeeze rocks and make water it's very
  • 00:17:25
    challenging to trade during the summer
  • 00:17:28
    and yet every summer we go through this
  • 00:17:30
    and people go I think I'm just going to
  • 00:17:31
    take a vacation or I think I'm going to
  • 00:17:33
    take a step back or I'm going to take it
  • 00:17:34
    a little bit lighter maybe instead of
  • 00:17:36
    going full R into positions I'm going
  • 00:17:37
    half are and yet they still do it and
  • 00:17:40
    that they relearn that lesson every year
  • 00:17:42
    I highlighted summer of 2023 when the
  • 00:17:44
    market started to break down into
  • 00:17:47
    October we were threatening to break the
  • 00:17:49
    200 day moving average and Bulls were
  • 00:17:51
    throwing the towel in now don't get me
  • 00:17:53
    wrong I was prepared for both scenarios
  • 00:17:55
    we had talked about it inside of TTI
  • 00:17:57
    there was just as much of an opport
  • 00:17:58
    opportunity to take this short as it was
  • 00:18:00
    to go long but at the end of October
  • 00:18:02
    there were a couple key features that
  • 00:18:03
    made us want to continue to push long
  • 00:18:05
    not going to get into them right now
  • 00:18:06
    it's on YouTube publicly you can go back
  • 00:18:08
    and watch that but we had some Bond
  • 00:18:10
    divergences some momentum divergences
  • 00:18:12
    and we go it what's by the end of
  • 00:18:13
    October some key things are happening
  • 00:18:15
    that ended up being the right call so
  • 00:18:17
    I'm highlighting here summer of 2024 yes
  • 00:18:20
    it's a lot more volatile because the
  • 00:18:21
    Japanese Yen carry trade blew up the
  • 00:18:23
    market on August 5th but is it that much
  • 00:18:26
    different than summer of 2023 have think
  • 00:18:28
    changed that much not really at least
  • 00:18:31
    from a technical standpoint You could
  • 00:18:33
    argue that the UN inversion of the you
  • 00:18:36
    know the the the uh interest rates and
  • 00:18:38
    everything else you want to argue
  • 00:18:40
    recession be my guess that's not my game
  • 00:18:42
    you know I'm a technical Trader I'm not
  • 00:18:44
    trying to predict the economy or
  • 00:18:45
    anything else but I'm looking at this
  • 00:18:46
    chart and I'm going that looks pretty
  • 00:18:47
    much the
  • 00:18:48
    same and we know that seasonally the
  • 00:18:50
    summer is
  • 00:18:52
    weak so I'm not worried at all the only
  • 00:18:56
    thing I'm going to do is continue to buy
  • 00:18:57
    names that are showing relative and
  • 00:18:58
    absolute strength and as of right now
  • 00:19:00
    that's not Tech or consumer
  • 00:19:02
    discretionary or Communications I have
  • 00:19:04
    old positions on the books a lot of them
  • 00:19:05
    are free I'm going to continue to hold
  • 00:19:07
    those through the year end right because
  • 00:19:09
    Tech will probably come back I'm not
  • 00:19:11
    buying the dip yet we're going to wait
  • 00:19:13
    for this thing to find some sort of
  • 00:19:14
    floor once again small caps this has
  • 00:19:17
    been a hell of a choppy two years plus
  • 00:19:19
    for small caps you want to talk about
  • 00:19:21
    how hard it is trading guys two plus
  • 00:19:24
    years small caps in a range in 2020 and
  • 00:19:26
    2021 a lot of you came into the market
  • 00:19:28
    trading small caps first before anything
  • 00:19:30
    else because small caps tend to move a
  • 00:19:33
    lot when the markets are hot over the
  • 00:19:35
    last 2 and a half years the markets have
  • 00:19:37
    not been hot for small caps for longer
  • 00:19:38
    than a week or two it has been a very
  • 00:19:40
    tough time to trade small caps a lot of
  • 00:19:43
    you guys have come over to options
  • 00:19:45
    trading because you seek the same thrill
  • 00:19:47
    guess what happens for options when the
  • 00:19:49
    market doesn't move very much unless
  • 00:19:50
    you're selling premium you're getting
  • 00:19:52
    crushed by vix or Theta so welcome it's
  • 00:19:55
    the same game you're just trading a
  • 00:19:57
    different Financial instrument be
  • 00:19:58
    patient iwm above 200 is green wit to
  • 00:20:01
    still go long in certain sectors that
  • 00:20:03
    are showing performance out performance
  • 00:20:05
    we realistically want to see iwm break
  • 00:20:07
    above 220 and head towards that 255
  • 00:20:09
    price Target think it's going to happen
  • 00:20:11
    just a matter of time here's your midcap
  • 00:20:13
    right midcaps outperformed a lot last
  • 00:20:15
    year particularly October November
  • 00:20:17
    December and into this year January and
  • 00:20:20
    February before starting to find some
  • 00:20:22
    resistance at previous cycle Highs at
  • 00:20:25
    535 we broke out into all-time highs
  • 00:20:27
    matter of fact
  • 00:20:29
    week and a half ago this was at all-time
  • 00:20:31
    highs and here we are pulling back once
  • 00:20:32
    again it's the end of the world because
  • 00:20:34
    line goes down for two weeks instead of
  • 00:20:36
    up I understand but as long as we're
  • 00:20:38
    holding 535 price Target 618 midcaps are
  • 00:20:41
    greenw we fall back below 535 we're not
  • 00:20:44
    buying any more midcaps it's really that
  • 00:20:45
    simple it's not easy but it's simple
  • 00:20:47
    draw a line in the sand above it good
  • 00:20:49
    below it bad midcaps still look good
  • 00:20:51
    here here's your Dow Jones by the way
  • 00:20:54
    has there any been like think about this
  • 00:20:56
    has there ever been a time in the market
  • 00:20:58
    where the Dow Dow Jones Industrial
  • 00:20:59
    Average closed at an all-time high and
  • 00:21:02
    then the very next day the market was
  • 00:21:04
    supposed to fall out into new bare
  • 00:21:05
    Market lows people are insane the Dow
  • 00:21:08
    Jones Industrial Average closed at
  • 00:21:10
    alltime highs last Friday all-time highs
  • 00:21:14
    guys and that's including Intel the
  • 00:21:16
    worst performing stock and one of the
  • 00:21:18
    worst performing stocks in the S&P 500
  • 00:21:20
    there's not a lot of stocks in the Dow
  • 00:21:22
    Jones Industrial Average so this big
  • 00:21:24
    lagger is pulling down the djia a lot
  • 00:21:27
    and yet we are still alltime highs once
  • 00:21:30
    again remove yourself from the crazy
  • 00:21:32
    pessimistic BS you see every day and
  • 00:21:34
    look at the charts is it really that bad
  • 00:21:36
    finding resistance at the 41k area I
  • 00:21:39
    don't see any reason why the Dow can't
  • 00:21:41
    flip that and start it its Advance up to
  • 00:21:43
    the 48 it sounds ridiculous but I want
  • 00:21:45
    to tell you something when we broke
  • 00:21:47
    above 36 and we had a price Target above
  • 00:21:49
    40 that sounded ridiculous and here we
  • 00:21:53
    are here we are we're now trading in the
  • 00:21:55
    40s do we find resistance here probably
  • 00:21:58
    just like every other chart we've looked
  • 00:21:59
    at these FIB levels give us a general
  • 00:22:01
    understanding that hey price is going to
  • 00:22:02
    consolidate here before going higher
  • 00:22:04
    what happens to stocks if the Dow Jones
  • 00:22:06
    continues to break out here within the
  • 00:22:08
    next few weeks you're probably going to
  • 00:22:10
    get paid if you're long the Dow Jones
  • 00:22:11
    Transportation average working on
  • 00:22:13
    completing a massive base to the
  • 00:22:15
    upside 110 120 years ago Mr Charles da
  • 00:22:19
    the you know the the creator of these
  • 00:22:22
    averages themselves the industrial and
  • 00:22:24
    the transportation said when these
  • 00:22:25
    things are moving in the same direction
  • 00:22:26
    up or down the market is efficient you
  • 00:22:28
    want to be Max long in uptrends or cash
  • 00:22:32
    in downtrends at the time I wasn't
  • 00:22:34
    shorting he wasn't shorting the market
  • 00:22:35
    so he was in cash the Dow Jones almost a
  • 00:22:38
    three-year base looking to complete
  • 00:22:40
    above the
  • 00:22:41
    16.7k range if that
  • 00:22:44
    happens my money is going to be that
  • 00:22:46
    this bull market continues to scream
  • 00:22:48
    higher very rarely do you see these
  • 00:22:51
    indexes moving in the same direction and
  • 00:22:53
    stocks are not rapidly appreciating I'm
  • 00:22:55
    waiting for it we waiting for it for a
  • 00:22:57
    while though at every Bear's dismay here
  • 00:23:00
    we talk about this in TTI all the
  • 00:23:03
    time Market breath is going
  • 00:23:06
    up it sucks if you're bearish absolutely
  • 00:23:10
    it doesn't make any sense if you think
  • 00:23:11
    this Market's rolling over tell me why
  • 00:23:13
    there's more net highs than
  • 00:23:16
    lows sorry for a bare Market to really
  • 00:23:19
    start you got to have broad-based
  • 00:23:21
    degradation of stocks yes the mag s
  • 00:23:23
    stocks are lagging we can see that we
  • 00:23:25
    can point to it we don't have to trade
  • 00:23:27
    those though we can trade other names
  • 00:23:29
    net Highs are improving during this
  • 00:23:32
    summer
  • 00:23:34
    volatility the data is right there look
  • 00:23:37
    at it green bar good more stocks are
  • 00:23:40
    going up than down on the
  • 00:23:42
    weekly volatility is
  • 00:23:46
    back let's see here what yeah volatility
  • 00:23:50
    back to decade average under 20s right
  • 00:23:51
    so I drew a line there at the 20 area
  • 00:23:54
    just to show you you know we talk
  • 00:23:55
    through this inside of TTI often below
  • 00:23:58
    20 is really where you want to be buying
  • 00:24:00
    lots of call options particularly in a
  • 00:24:02
    bull market because typically implied
  • 00:24:04
    volatility on those contracts is going
  • 00:24:06
    to be rather low and the odds of you
  • 00:24:08
    getting IV crushed are a lot lower not
  • 00:24:10
    always but a lot lower above 20 which
  • 00:24:13
    our intern Randy had pointed out earlier
  • 00:24:15
    today you might want to start to get you
  • 00:24:17
    know a little bit cautious about buying
  • 00:24:18
    call options above that 20 area and then
  • 00:24:20
    if you have some crazy 60 area like we
  • 00:24:23
    saw which was the largest single daily
  • 00:24:25
    Spike ever by the way this is going in
  • 00:24:27
    the history book that it reverted in
  • 00:24:29
    like two days if you were buying call
  • 00:24:31
    options or put options up here you got
  • 00:24:34
    crushed no matter what happened you do
  • 00:24:35
    not buy typically when you're way up
  • 00:24:38
    here but above 20 is kind of that
  • 00:24:39
    threshold so be careful if you're buying
  • 00:24:41
    straight calls or puts spreads are a
  • 00:24:43
    little different or if you're playing
  • 00:24:44
    premium that's fine too under 20 is
  • 00:24:46
    really what we're going for right now
  • 00:24:47
    we're trading at around 21 stocks above
  • 00:24:49
    the 20 50 and 200 day moving averages
  • 00:24:51
    once again Market breath not bad stocks
  • 00:24:54
    above the 20-day moving average in the
  • 00:24:55
    S&P 50071
  • 00:24:58
    stocks above the 50-day moving average
  • 00:25:00
    69 stocks above the 200 day moving
  • 00:25:03
    average 71 these are percentages you're
  • 00:25:05
    telling me a majority of the s&p500 is
  • 00:25:07
    Trading North of the shortterm 20-day
  • 00:25:09
    moving average north of the intermediate
  • 00:25:12
    term 50-day moving average and north of
  • 00:25:14
    the 200 day moving average which is the
  • 00:25:16
    long-term Trend once again guys you can
  • 00:25:20
    hate this Market all you want for not
  • 00:25:22
    dying but until you see these lines go
  • 00:25:24
    down a majority of the market is not
  • 00:25:27
    participating in any sort of ort of roll
  • 00:25:28
    over so that's probably why you're not
  • 00:25:30
    getting paid out 10 to1 on puts right
  • 00:25:32
    now unless it was Nvidia or some crazy
  • 00:25:34
    semiconductor High beta play the index
  • 00:25:37
    is not getting crushed as much as people
  • 00:25:38
    expect because most of the constituents
  • 00:25:40
    are not getting crushed with it put to
  • 00:25:42
    call ratio spiked last week we're back
  • 00:25:44
    up to one we'd really like to see this
  • 00:25:46
    put to call ratio Spike up towards that
  • 00:25:47
    130 area because that typically starts
  • 00:25:50
    to Signal a potential bottom and a
  • 00:25:53
    squeeze back to the upside so we're back
  • 00:25:54
    to the median there at around one that
  • 00:25:56
    neutral area we're heading back up
  • 00:25:58
    though we came back down into oversold
  • 00:26:00
    territory if that's how you want to read
  • 00:26:01
    it now we're going to look for the
  • 00:26:02
    overbought territory which means we
  • 00:26:03
    could be here for probably another week
  • 00:26:05
    two weeks of this choppy volatility
  • 00:26:07
    typically I will tell you this wasn't
  • 00:26:08
    highlighted earlier in the seasonality
  • 00:26:10
    portion but um the last two weeks of
  • 00:26:14
    September are typically going to be
  • 00:26:15
    weaker than the first two weeks so just
  • 00:26:16
    keep that in mind look at that put to
  • 00:26:18
    call ratio when we get up to that 1.3
  • 00:26:20
    area the opportunity for a squeeze to
  • 00:26:22
    the upside really gets a lot higher high
  • 00:26:26
    beta stocks have not really done a whole
  • 00:26:28
    lot since the July Peak they're still
  • 00:26:30
    chopping sideways we're holding previous
  • 00:26:32
    cycle highs which is nice but when we're
  • 00:26:35
    looking at new stocks to trade remember
  • 00:26:37
    we want to Own Strength here and there's
  • 00:26:38
    not a lot of strength in these high beta
  • 00:26:40
    stocks it's they're not necessarily
  • 00:26:41
    going down they're chopping around so we
  • 00:26:43
    don't necessarily want to keep buying
  • 00:26:44
    these unless there's a clear Trend to
  • 00:26:46
    the upside and could it be any clearer
  • 00:26:48
    that lower volatility stocks don't give
  • 00:26:50
    a about what's going on with higher
  • 00:26:52
    beta stocks these guys are breaking out
  • 00:26:53
    into all-time highs low volatility
  • 00:26:56
    stocks to every Traders dis May are the
  • 00:26:59
    areas of the market that are working the
  • 00:27:01
    financials the healthc carees the
  • 00:27:03
    utilities the consumer staples the
  • 00:27:04
    materials the Industrials the boring
  • 00:27:07
    nobody wants to own is exactly what
  • 00:27:10
    the market is buying you can fight that
  • 00:27:12
    Trend all you want you're going to live
  • 00:27:14
    a very uncomfortable life in the market
  • 00:27:16
    though as a matter of fact if we look at
  • 00:27:17
    spb against spov basic ratio chart tell
  • 00:27:20
    me if we're back within this range do
  • 00:27:22
    you really want to be buying those
  • 00:27:23
    higher beta stocks over lower volatility
  • 00:27:25
    stocks no and by the way we have Traders
  • 00:27:27
    inside of TI that are like listen wake
  • 00:27:30
    me up when high beta comes back I don't
  • 00:27:32
    want to live through this low volatility
  • 00:27:33
    Market regime totally fine but if you're
  • 00:27:35
    buying High beta stuff expecting some
  • 00:27:37
    quick turnarounds everything is telling
  • 00:27:39
    you that you're going to have a tough
  • 00:27:40
    time all
  • 00:27:42
    right going to look at a couple int
  • 00:27:44
    Market relationships here my favorite
  • 00:27:46
    consumer discretionary against Consumer
  • 00:27:48
    Staples I will give Bears one thing here
  • 00:27:50
    there's not a whole lot to give Bears
  • 00:27:52
    this year but I will give Bears one
  • 00:27:54
    thing you typically don't see consumer
  • 00:27:56
    discretionary roll over in a bull market
  • 00:27:57
    so
  • 00:27:58
    you know we are not so bowled up that we
  • 00:28:01
    are blind we look at 50-day lows and and
  • 00:28:03
    breakdowns all the time as a matter of
  • 00:28:04
    fact I think tomorrow the uh report
  • 00:28:08
    that's going out is our be tracks report
  • 00:28:10
    which is looking at the weakest stocks
  • 00:28:11
    in the market because guys it's
  • 00:28:12
    September and while I'm bowled up you
  • 00:28:15
    know there's never a 100% chance of
  • 00:28:17
    anything other than you're going to get
  • 00:28:18
    a couple times in the market and
  • 00:28:19
    have to pay taxes those are the only two
  • 00:28:21
    real 100% things but this is not a
  • 00:28:23
    relationship that is very common in a
  • 00:28:24
    bull market you're seeing consumer
  • 00:28:26
    discretionary underperform against
  • 00:28:27
    consumer state St so you're looking at
  • 00:28:29
    you know your Teslas your Fords your
  • 00:28:31
    General Motors your cruise cruise lines
  • 00:28:33
    Resorts hotels Amazon basically anything
  • 00:28:36
    that if you have a couple bucks what are
  • 00:28:37
    you going to go buy right you have a
  • 00:28:39
    couple extra bucks where are you going
  • 00:28:40
    to go spend it and consumer staples are
  • 00:28:42
    going to be names that hey you don't
  • 00:28:43
    have a couple bucks maybe you know
  • 00:28:45
    you're you're uh pinching pennies or
  • 00:28:47
    whatever what are you going to buy
  • 00:28:48
    things like well Coca-Cola you're
  • 00:28:49
    probably going to continue to buy even
  • 00:28:51
    if you don't have a lot of money maybe
  • 00:28:52
    you're Walmarts you're not going to be
  • 00:28:53
    shopping at Trader Joe's anymore you're
  • 00:28:55
    going to Walmarts type stuff right so
  • 00:28:57
    when you see this relation ship start to
  • 00:28:58
    roll over here this is one of those
  • 00:29:00
    things that pequs my interest why is
  • 00:29:01
    that happening is this normal for a bull
  • 00:29:03
    market it's not normal so yes this is a
  • 00:29:06
    win for the bare side of the uh regime
  • 00:29:09
    here and we are constantly watching that
  • 00:29:11
    that could be a very good precursor to
  • 00:29:13
    what might happen who knows another one
  • 00:29:15
    High Yield Corporate debt against
  • 00:29:16
    treasuries we're still holding those
  • 00:29:18
    previous cycle highs there that Range
  • 00:29:20
    High excuse me back in 20202 to 2023 I'm
  • 00:29:23
    not necessarily worried about the intern
  • 00:29:26
    uh interim downtrend here this thing is
  • 00:29:30
    uh goes up and down all the time as long
  • 00:29:31
    as the trend is still up here the bull
  • 00:29:33
    market should be intact what we're
  • 00:29:35
    looking at are you know is are the smart
  • 00:29:38
    money are they buying High Yield
  • 00:29:40
    Corporate debt Which is higher risk
  • 00:29:42
    higher reward or they going out and
  • 00:29:43
    buying the longer dated relatively safer
  • 00:29:45
    lower reward treasuries in a bull market
  • 00:29:48
    that is inundated with risk where people
  • 00:29:50
    really taking risk generally speaking
  • 00:29:51
    you're going to see High Yield Corporate
  • 00:29:52
    debt outperform and we have seen that
  • 00:29:54
    over the last year and a half so
  • 00:29:55
    continues to show there and the last one
  • 00:29:58
    stocks versus shiny rocks which you're
  • 00:29:59
    going to look at in a second is there an
  • 00:30:01
    edge in owning stocks over gold most
  • 00:30:02
    people would say yeah own stocks over
  • 00:30:04
    gold and then you have Peter Schiff in
  • 00:30:05
    the background screaming you got to own
  • 00:30:07
    gold you got to own gold well to Peter
  • 00:30:10
    schiff's credit actually spy and gold
  • 00:30:12
    have performed relatively the same over
  • 00:30:13
    the last four years two different paths
  • 00:30:15
    same destination that's not normal given
  • 00:30:19
    the fact that we have just traded
  • 00:30:20
    through a deflationary regime where uh
  • 00:30:23
    stocks greatly outperformed gold but if
  • 00:30:25
    you're unaware I'm not going to get into
  • 00:30:27
    it but if you're in TTI you got this the
  • 00:30:29
    Spiel again yesterday we have moved into
  • 00:30:31
    an inflationary regime which means just
  • 00:30:33
    inflation forces are stronger than
  • 00:30:34
    deflationary forces and actually spy or
  • 00:30:37
    stocks in general and gold tend to move
  • 00:30:39
    relatively in the same direction under
  • 00:30:40
    those types of market regimes so doesn't
  • 00:30:42
    necessarily surprise me to see spy and
  • 00:30:44
    gold track relatively the same as a
  • 00:30:46
    matter of fact we have a gold position
  • 00:30:47
    on and it's working very well we're
  • 00:30:48
    going to go through that at the end all
  • 00:30:50
    country right you're going to see a
  • 00:30:52
    couple countries here these are all-time
  • 00:30:55
    highs for stock markets around the world
  • 00:30:57
    that's all I got to say say it's not
  • 00:30:58
    just the United States participating in
  • 00:31:00
    this bull market we have lots of
  • 00:31:01
    different countries around the world but
  • 00:31:02
    one that is not
  • 00:31:04
    participating is the Chinese market guys
  • 00:31:07
    China is uninvestable untradeable other
  • 00:31:10
    than a temporary mental setback of mine
  • 00:31:13
    in May of this year we have avoided
  • 00:31:15
    Chinese stocks for the greater part of
  • 00:31:17
    the last two years we have not given the
  • 00:31:19
    CCP any of our godamn money except for a
  • 00:31:22
    couple stupid trades in may we took a
  • 00:31:24
    little bit of a risk there and guess
  • 00:31:25
    what just like every other time over the
  • 00:31:27
    last two plus years Chinese stocks have
  • 00:31:29
    burned everybody trying to buy these
  • 00:31:31
    things we don't want to own these things
  • 00:31:32
    until we're above 335 I don't care how
  • 00:31:34
    good PDD looks we are trading based off
  • 00:31:37
    of sector strength and sector strength
  • 00:31:39
    is not apparent in Chinese equities
  • 00:31:41
    here's your Emerging Markets which
  • 00:31:43
    includes China I want you to look at it
  • 00:31:44
    we're holding those previous that Range
  • 00:31:46
    High there at the 42 it's still green
  • 00:31:49
    lit from an Emerging Market standpoint
  • 00:31:51
    this is including China let's see what
  • 00:31:54
    happens if you exclude China wow the
  • 00:31:57
    world looks pretty godamn good actually
  • 00:31:58
    we're pressing up in towards potential
  • 00:32:00
    all-time highs without China China is a
  • 00:32:02
    huge lagger on the world stage I'm not a
  • 00:32:05
    hater of China but I'm a hater of
  • 00:32:06
    Chinese stocks and I've been a hater of
  • 00:32:07
    Chinese stocks for the last two plus
  • 00:32:09
    years for good reason they suck they do
  • 00:32:11
    not work avoid them until they start
  • 00:32:14
    showing strength a majority of the world
  • 00:32:15
    is in a bull market don't believe me
  • 00:32:17
    this is year to date go back one year go
  • 00:32:19
    back three years majority of the market
  • 00:32:22
    is performing very well you want to know
  • 00:32:23
    what's not performing well China South
  • 00:32:25
    Korea Hong Kong Mexico Brazil
  • 00:32:28
    unfortunately I'm living there but look
  • 00:32:30
    at the rest Europe looks great half of
  • 00:32:33
    Asia looks
  • 00:32:35
    great half of the Americas excuse me
  • 00:32:38
    look great Middle Eastern Africa look
  • 00:32:40
    great lots of different areas of the
  • 00:32:43
    market look good so let's talk about
  • 00:32:45
    that market breath really quick and then
  • 00:32:47
    we're going to get into some individual
  • 00:32:48
    trade ideas here equaled S&P 500 last
  • 00:32:50
    week alltime
  • 00:32:52
    highs you're going to have a really
  • 00:32:54
    tough time convincing somebody with
  • 00:32:56
    greater than 85 IQ points that the
  • 00:32:58
    market is weak when you have an equal
  • 00:33:01
    weighted S&P 500 ETF closing at all-time
  • 00:33:04
    highs two days ago like come on guys
  • 00:33:07
    every single stock is relatively
  • 00:33:09
    weighted the same that means apple is
  • 00:33:11
    going to be weighted the exact same as
  • 00:33:12
    the 437th stock in the S&P 500 right for
  • 00:33:16
    those of you that don't know the S&P 500
  • 00:33:18
    is not equal weighted so the big boys at
  • 00:33:20
    the top are going to influence more when
  • 00:33:22
    mag 7 starts to lag the S&P 500 is going
  • 00:33:24
    to be volatile potentially pull back RSP
  • 00:33:28
    doesn't have that problem right so broad
  • 00:33:31
    Market is participating well into this
  • 00:33:33
    bull run qqw is a change though or
  • 00:33:37
    chopping around those previous cycle
  • 00:33:39
    Highs at 121 has not had the same type
  • 00:33:42
    of success as some of the lower
  • 00:33:45
    volatility areas in the market we're
  • 00:33:47
    seeing some underperformance in Internet
  • 00:33:49
    stocks we're seeing some
  • 00:33:50
    underperformance in software stocks it's
  • 00:33:53
    not necessarily ready to roll over into
  • 00:33:54
    new lows but I'm more of looking at this
  • 00:33:57
    as when it continues its uptrend which I
  • 00:33:59
    do think it will because I think Tech is
  • 00:34:01
    going to continue here I would expect
  • 00:34:03
    this particular part of the market right
  • 00:34:05
    the equal weighted cues to give us a
  • 00:34:07
    clue as we break above the 128 area and
  • 00:34:09
    head up towards that 145 price Target
  • 00:34:11
    now these are equal weighted ETFs we're
  • 00:34:12
    not trading them we're just using them
  • 00:34:14
    as analytical tools but this will allow
  • 00:34:16
    us to understand where the strength and
  • 00:34:19
    opportunity cost lies if you own a bunch
  • 00:34:21
    of these QQ q names right now they might
  • 00:34:24
    work 6 months from now 12 months from
  • 00:34:26
    now but you're going to be holding them
  • 00:34:27
    at a loss probably for the next couple
  • 00:34:29
    of months before they start to kick back
  • 00:34:31
    up meanwhile we could own some lower
  • 00:34:33
    volatility stocks in the meantime close
  • 00:34:34
    those and whatever price targets we hit
  • 00:34:36
    roll that profit in to the lagging QQQ
  • 00:34:40
    names and then we'll take the benefits
  • 00:34:41
    of the high beta stocks as they break
  • 00:34:43
    out that's the tentative plan here and
  • 00:34:44
    we can see it playing out across
  • 00:34:46
    multiple charts bonds if you were here
  • 00:34:48
    two weeks ago we put a bond trade on who
  • 00:34:51
    was here two weeks ago to put the march
  • 00:34:52
    on because it's
  • 00:34:54
    working we have two tranches of trades
  • 00:34:57
    on TLT we have a January $100 call which
  • 00:35:00
    is up about 50% and we have some March
  • 00:35:02
    105s some March 110s depending on how
  • 00:35:05
    far how much you want to pay all three
  • 00:35:07
    of those are working right now there is
  • 00:35:09
    a positive bullish Divergence or uh
  • 00:35:13
    positive bullish momentum excuse me on
  • 00:35:15
    the TLT chart bonds are bottoming that
  • 00:35:18
    is my call we are long it is working we
  • 00:35:21
    were joking around inside of the Discord
  • 00:35:22
    earlier today in our community and we
  • 00:35:24
    were saying you know what how cool is it
  • 00:35:25
    going to be to be able to tell our
  • 00:35:26
    friends and family we bought
  • 00:35:28
    generational low bonds that's a cool
  • 00:35:31
    story it's almost as cool as saying you
  • 00:35:33
    bought negative you bought oil when it
  • 00:35:35
    went negative $20 a barrel that's a cool
  • 00:35:37
    story one for the history books this has
  • 00:35:39
    been one of the deepest and longest
  • 00:35:42
    recessions shouldn't call it a recession
  • 00:35:44
    a bare Market in tlt's history in bond
  • 00:35:47
    market history and we could potentially
  • 00:35:49
    be buying the bottom I think that's
  • 00:35:51
    pretty cool plus these trades are going
  • 00:35:52
    to be profitable which is even better
  • 00:35:54
    and if you don't believe me that I think
  • 00:35:56
    bonds are bottoming out and offer good R
  • 00:35:58
    to R here RIS reward and I think for
  • 00:36:00
    people that are not afraid to own these
  • 00:36:02
    things for some time you can make some
  • 00:36:03
    pretty decent cash here here are yields
  • 00:36:06
    right yields are inversely correlated to
  • 00:36:07
    bonds yields in all flavors completing
  • 00:36:10
    topping patterns if these were stocks we
  • 00:36:11
    would be shorting them right you have
  • 00:36:14
    the one year you have the twoyear you
  • 00:36:16
    have the 10 year you have the 30-year y
  • 00:36:18
    uh yields are topping what is that mean
  • 00:36:21
    for bonds well the exact opposite Bonds
  • 00:36:24
    in all flavors are completing bottoming
  • 00:36:26
    patterns
  • 00:36:28
    understand yields come down bonds go up
  • 00:36:30
    makes total sense right got the one to
  • 00:36:32
    threeyear ETF on the upper left-and
  • 00:36:34
    quadrant that is shy you have your five
  • 00:36:37
    or excuse me 7 to 10 year ETF that is
  • 00:36:40
    your EF you have your 20 plus year which
  • 00:36:43
    is the long-term bonds your TLT and you
  • 00:36:46
    have High Yield Corporate Bond debt
  • 00:36:49
    which is what we talked about earlier in
  • 00:36:51
    the intr market analysis and that is hyg
  • 00:36:53
    all four of these are completing
  • 00:36:55
    bottoming patterns once again yield stop
  • 00:36:57
    in bonds bottoming hey man throw one on
  • 00:36:59
    the books go out there buy some March
  • 00:37:02
    202s and forget about them for six
  • 00:37:03
    months and see what happens we're doing
  • 00:37:05
    it we like it I asked our intern Randy
  • 00:37:09
    to submit a couple charts that he
  • 00:37:10
    thought would help people that are
  • 00:37:11
    struggling and he goes hey pullbacks are
  • 00:37:13
    normal and uptrends I totally agree
  • 00:37:16
    totally agree he highlighted that summer
  • 00:37:18
    pullback in 2023 he's looking at this
  • 00:37:21
    current summer pullback right now right
  • 00:37:24
    there are some similarities here for
  • 00:37:26
    people that struggle holding strong St
  • 00:37:28
    uh strong stocks and uptrends during any
  • 00:37:30
    Market pullback understand that there
  • 00:37:32
    are only two types of people in this
  • 00:37:34
    world that time every top and buy every
  • 00:37:36
    bottom marketers and Liars most of us
  • 00:37:40
    have nine to five jobs or own a company
  • 00:37:42
    we don't get to lie or Market our way to
  • 00:37:45
    incredible profits we have to Simply
  • 00:37:48
    hold through some of this stuff with the
  • 00:37:50
    understanding that uptrends tend to
  • 00:37:51
    continue to persist until you know
  • 00:37:53
    something really big happens in the
  • 00:37:54
    market if you don't know what that
  • 00:37:56
    sounds like go watch the distribution
  • 00:37:58
    webinar that's public on YouTube I put
  • 00:37:59
    out about four weeks ago these are
  • 00:38:01
    normal pullbacks and uptrends until
  • 00:38:03
    proven otherwise other chart that he
  • 00:38:05
    sent was now is the time to monitor for
  • 00:38:08
    relative strength November December are
  • 00:38:09
    a whole lot better than the summer
  • 00:38:10
    months which we went through during the
  • 00:38:11
    seasonality portion but he's right right
  • 00:38:14
    we're going to touch upon this towards
  • 00:38:15
    the very end this is the time to be
  • 00:38:16
    building out your relative strength
  • 00:38:18
    watch list look for the stocks that are
  • 00:38:19
    outperforming The Benchmark so if spy
  • 00:38:21
    ends up drawing down another 10% which
  • 00:38:23
    Mr famous Tom Lee said could happen over
  • 00:38:26
    the next four weeks look for the stocks
  • 00:38:28
    particularly the bigger stocks large
  • 00:38:29
    caps Mega caps that don't draw down 10%
  • 00:38:32
    there's your relative strength and those
  • 00:38:34
    are typically going to be the names that
  • 00:38:36
    that lead through the winter months
  • 00:38:38
    right so let's go ahead and move into
  • 00:38:41
    some of
  • 00:38:42
    the exposure data here ctas we love ctas
  • 00:38:45
    because they're just some of the dumbest
  • 00:38:47
    people actually they're very intelligent
  • 00:38:48
    people I apologize that these are the
  • 00:38:50
    professional money managers so if you're
  • 00:38:51
    parents have money locked up with a
  • 00:38:53
    financial advisor or some sort of firm
  • 00:38:55
    these are your ctas and they are not
  • 00:38:57
    notorious for playing catchup they have
  • 00:38:59
    to be exposed because clients harp at
  • 00:39:02
    them last year we saw alltime highs and
  • 00:39:06
    ctas were criminally underexposed so
  • 00:39:08
    guess what happened late December early
  • 00:39:10
    January when they had to send out their
  • 00:39:12
    yearly reports they had to buy all-time
  • 00:39:15
    highs and then what happened for the
  • 00:39:16
    next four weeks stock market
  • 00:39:18
    Consolidated and lots of stocks pulled
  • 00:39:20
    back and they looked like it's
  • 00:39:22
    probably not going to change we love CT
  • 00:39:24
    and my last dig at them how many of
  • 00:39:26
    these guys do you think are on Twitter
  • 00:39:27
    giving their opinion they are
  • 00:39:30
    underexposed once again they bought the
  • 00:39:32
    dip hand over feet and are once again
  • 00:39:34
    being probably hurt by this recent
  • 00:39:37
    Market pullback we'll see where we're at
  • 00:39:39
    in two weeks with CTA levels you know
  • 00:39:41
    it's a hell of a job I worked as a
  • 00:39:43
    professional money manager uh for a
  • 00:39:45
    number of years and I'm very glad that I
  • 00:39:47
    don't have to talk to clients anymore
  • 00:39:48
    instead I can just talk to you guys in
  • 00:39:49
    Discord because when you guys are being
  • 00:39:51
    little I can say stop being a
  • 00:39:52
    little can't do that in a
  • 00:39:54
    professional capacity man sometimes I
  • 00:39:56
    wanted to say it though commercial
  • 00:39:58
    Traders still net short or hedge this is
  • 00:40:00
    your coot report but they are decreasing
  • 00:40:02
    right they were greater hedged in the
  • 00:40:04
    early summer months they are decreasing
  • 00:40:05
    but still hedged still net short and uh
  • 00:40:08
    leverage funds are now hedged right so
  • 00:40:10
    they're moving in they felt the
  • 00:40:11
    volatility of that August 5th you can
  • 00:40:13
    see that they're loading up some shorts
  • 00:40:14
    here to get hedged they don't want to be
  • 00:40:16
    caught long in a market that might be
  • 00:40:18
    choppy through September and potentially
  • 00:40:20
    October as well they're not net short as
  • 00:40:22
    in looking for huge moves to the
  • 00:40:24
    downside they are hedged we will
  • 00:40:26
    continue to track that
  • 00:40:28
    uh it's a couple of days old August 27th
  • 00:40:30
    we'll continue to track that when we see
  • 00:40:32
    commercial Traders take those Hedges off
  • 00:40:33
    guys it probably the market is is
  • 00:40:36
    starting to swing back to the upside so
  • 00:40:37
    we take that information seriously
  • 00:40:40
    because obviously commercial Traders are
  • 00:40:41
    the smart Traders those are the guys
  • 00:40:42
    that everybody supposedly wants to trade
  • 00:40:44
    with the financial institutions privy to
  • 00:40:46
    better information Etc and thankfully to
  • 00:40:48
    the C report we can see how they're
  • 00:40:50
    positioned in the
  • 00:40:53
    market little tongue and cheek here
  • 00:40:54
    remember when they told us the consumer
  • 00:40:56
    is weak we talked about this two week
  • 00:40:57
    ago and I showed you Walmart Uber
  • 00:40:59
    Ferrari like all these consumer-based
  • 00:41:01
    stocks at all time highs well how about
  • 00:41:03
    Dollar Tree and Dollar General if you
  • 00:41:05
    were trading these earlier uh this week
  • 00:41:07
    or last week if you're day trading them
  • 00:41:08
    in particular these were fantastic
  • 00:41:10
    opportunities to take a stock down into
  • 00:41:13
    some seasonally weak uh price action I
  • 00:41:17
    want to point out that the core consumer
  • 00:41:19
    here makes less than $30 I think I
  • 00:41:20
    messed
  • 00:41:21
    that um I think I wrote greater than
  • 00:41:25
    that's okay they make less than 30 ,000
  • 00:41:28
    and so we're not we don't get into
  • 00:41:29
    earnings here at least on these webinars
  • 00:41:32
    but the Dollar Tree in general or Dollar
  • 00:41:34
    General earnings reports basically are
  • 00:41:36
    saying that the you know the the
  • 00:41:38
    consumer at the you know the
  • 00:41:42
    impoverished end of the spectrum is
  • 00:41:44
    really starting to
  • 00:41:46
    hurt how difficult do you think it is to
  • 00:41:49
    trade when you're reading headlines like
  • 00:41:51
    that and then you have Walmart and
  • 00:41:53
    Costco screaming up at alltime highs
  • 00:41:55
    post earnings so the reason why I put
  • 00:41:57
    this in here is not necessarily to harp
  • 00:41:58
    on Dollar General Dollar Tree or people
  • 00:42:00
    that make less than 30 or to speak up
  • 00:42:03
    Walmart or Costco it's to prove to you
  • 00:42:05
    that if you're trading based off of
  • 00:42:06
    headlines alone if you were to read
  • 00:42:08
    Dollar Tree's earnings report says
  • 00:42:10
    consumers or households making less than
  • 00:42:12
    30,000 can't afford products first thing
  • 00:42:14
    you think of is holy this economy
  • 00:42:16
    sucks Dollar General said the same thing
  • 00:42:18
    holy smokes are you kidding me and then
  • 00:42:20
    you go over to Walmart and Costco and
  • 00:42:22
    they go we see no material degradation
  • 00:42:24
    whatsoever in our core consumer and
  • 00:42:26
    you're like hm well
  • 00:42:28
    all right I thought the economy sucked
  • 00:42:30
    but now you have Walmart and Costco at
  • 00:42:31
    alltime highs it can make anybody go
  • 00:42:33
    crazy don't trade headlines trade Trends
  • 00:42:36
    okay don't trade headlines trade Trends
  • 00:42:39
    uh this was a previous chart that I
  • 00:42:40
    should have taken out that was Dick
  • 00:42:41
    Sporting Good at all-time highs which it
  • 00:42:42
    still is by the way okay new themes here
  • 00:42:45
    we go trade ideas so if you only care
  • 00:42:47
    about the trade ideas here this is your
  • 00:42:48
    portion we have about 20 minutes to get
  • 00:42:50
    through these new themes emerging
  • 00:42:52
    all-time high sector breakouts guys if
  • 00:42:54
    you're not aware the market is more than
  • 00:42:56
    just Tech consumer discretionary
  • 00:42:57
    Communications I've tried to make that
  • 00:42:59
    abundantly clear as I go through these
  • 00:43:01
    trade ideas here you go six flavors of
  • 00:43:04
    sectors all breaking out into all-time
  • 00:43:07
    highs Consumer Staples Healthcare
  • 00:43:09
    Industrials utilities financials
  • 00:43:11
    materials Communications an honorable
  • 00:43:13
    shout out let's look through some
  • 00:43:15
    Consumer Staples names first there is
  • 00:43:17
    your Consumer Staples xlp ETF on the
  • 00:43:20
    weekly doesn't look too shabby after a
  • 00:43:21
    two plus year range breakout into new
  • 00:43:23
    highs not bad we don't have a trade on
  • 00:43:26
    that but we we do have a trade on a
  • 00:43:27
    couple of these Colgate Palm Olive went
  • 00:43:30
    out a long time ago in one of our Heavy
  • 00:43:32
    Hitters report I doubt anybody owns it
  • 00:43:34
    which is fine but I added this chart to
  • 00:43:36
    highlight something might be an AI
  • 00:43:38
    bubble I'm not here to refute that but
  • 00:43:40
    what about a toothpaste bubble
  • 00:43:43
    right this is insane you could have
  • 00:43:45
    bought this at 86 and you've owned it at
  • 00:43:47
    108 and this has basically been a
  • 00:43:48
    straight move to the upside now I'm not
  • 00:43:50
    saying that if you missed this you're an
  • 00:43:51
    idiot because I'm not in it or maybe I'm
  • 00:43:53
    an idiot I don't know but these types of
  • 00:43:56
    charts EX outside of tech right so open
  • 00:43:58
    your horizon a little bit understand
  • 00:44:00
    that lower Vol lower volatility takes a
  • 00:44:02
    little bit longer to get moving you can
  • 00:44:04
    find charts like this Colgate Palm Olive
  • 00:44:07
    a bubble and toothpaste Clorox this is a
  • 00:44:09
    stage one setting up into a stage two
  • 00:44:11
    who would have wanted to be buying
  • 00:44:13
    Clorox this is not a trade you want to
  • 00:44:15
    go tell your buddies in group chat I
  • 00:44:16
    just bought a bunch of Clorox they're
  • 00:44:17
    going to go please don't kill yourself
  • 00:44:18
    you're like no I bought the stock above
  • 00:44:21
    168 we want to own it to 200 bucks this
  • 00:44:22
    is a stage one and two a stage two right
  • 00:44:25
    bullish momentum regime going back to
  • 00:44:28
    June price is Trading North of the 200
  • 00:44:30
    day moving average this has sloped up we
  • 00:44:32
    have a very obvious risk on level at 168
  • 00:44:34
    we're not there yet so wait for that
  • 00:44:35
    close above 168 we're targeting the $200
  • 00:44:38
    range options are available I'm not
  • 00:44:40
    adding the options here because I'm
  • 00:44:41
    going to keep them just for the members
  • 00:44:42
    if you're interested the link is above
  • 00:44:44
    you can pay if not I put out occasional
  • 00:44:46
    trade ideas on Twitter as well with the
  • 00:44:48
    options contracts appended to those so
  • 00:44:50
    feel free to follow me at how to swing
  • 00:44:52
    trade cocacola here's a trade that we're
  • 00:44:54
    in right everybody that's in this trade
  • 00:44:55
    in TTI it's a free trade it's up
  • 00:44:57
    anywhere between 150 to 200% all-time
  • 00:45:00
    high today we bought it off the 6715
  • 00:45:02
    breakout once again no trade here about
  • 00:45:04
    65 to 70% of the way through to the
  • 00:45:06
    price Target but just going to show you
  • 00:45:08
    right
  • 00:45:09
    Colgate Clorox cocacola not trades that
  • 00:45:13
    typically people want to take upward
  • 00:45:14
    sloping 200 day moving average bullish
  • 00:45:16
    momentum regime on the RSI and up into
  • 00:45:18
    big blue skies take the trades take take
  • 00:45:20
    the breakouts guys Altria Group this is
  • 00:45:24
    a tobacco company if I'm not mistaken
  • 00:45:26
    stage one to a stage two bullish
  • 00:45:29
    momentum regime for the most part of the
  • 00:45:30
    last two quarters upward slping 200 day
  • 00:45:32
    moving average if you get sick of me
  • 00:45:34
    saying this it's because nearly
  • 00:45:35
    every single setup is going to be the
  • 00:45:37
    same because they work we've been buying
  • 00:45:38
    them for 18 months and we've made money
  • 00:45:41
    on a lot of them so buy these once again
  • 00:45:45
    probably not going to get a 1,00% move
  • 00:45:47
    in a week like most people are expecting
  • 00:45:49
    but these things are typically stocks
  • 00:45:51
    that are not going to gap down 50%
  • 00:45:53
    overnight either and destroy you just
  • 00:45:55
    buy some time if you're going out with
  • 00:45:57
    contracts and if it's shares set the
  • 00:45:59
    expectation this trade is going to take
  • 00:46:00
    like four to 6 months and that's fine
  • 00:46:02
    buy it above 55 Target 6975 70 bucks on
  • 00:46:05
    the dot we'll see where we're at when
  • 00:46:07
    we're about halfway through that this a
  • 00:46:08
    good little good little opportunity to
  • 00:46:09
    own a tobacco stock here's one we just
  • 00:46:11
    opened up you have an opportunity to own
  • 00:46:14
    it with us because we're not up very
  • 00:46:15
    much right now Philip Morris another
  • 00:46:18
    tobacco stock like I said on Twitter a
  • 00:46:20
    couple days ago I think it was yesterday
  • 00:46:21
    I posted it I don't know if smoking's
  • 00:46:22
    cool again I don't smoke if you can't
  • 00:46:25
    tell I have asthma and hour GES because
  • 00:46:27
    I live in Brazil I can't even look at a
  • 00:46:29
    cigarette without wanting to die
  • 00:46:31
    so I have no idea what's going on with
  • 00:46:33
    the whole smoking scene the zins the the
  • 00:46:36
    Vapes I don't get it but I do know that
  • 00:46:39
    above 1235 of Philip Morris we're
  • 00:46:41
    targeting 16550 and that is a seven-year
  • 00:46:44
    base breakout in my part of the world
  • 00:46:46
    bigger the base bigger the breakout
  • 00:46:48
    seven years is pretty goddamn big bu mum
  • 00:46:51
    regime going back all the way to
  • 00:46:52
    basically the beginning of 2024 upward
  • 00:46:54
    sloping T day moving average in big blue
  • 00:46:57
    skies the only thing you have to worry
  • 00:46:59
    about is the selling after you
  • 00:47:01
    there are no previous buyers up here
  • 00:47:03
    it's big blue skies we love these types
  • 00:47:04
    of opportunities this is a great call
  • 00:47:06
    option opportunity we bought straight
  • 00:47:08
    calls on this when you find a low IV
  • 00:47:10
    name into a big blue sky setup buy the
  • 00:47:13
    calls as long as they fit your one R
  • 00:47:15
    your risk level right Healthcare sector
  • 00:47:17
    all-time highs once again not the
  • 00:47:19
    sexiest sector to be trading but there
  • 00:47:21
    we go wasn't an easy breakout either we
  • 00:47:24
    have been long Healthcare on and off
  • 00:47:25
    over the last year
  • 00:47:27
    we're long again it's working for us
  • 00:47:29
    hasn't been the easiest trade but here
  • 00:47:30
    we are all-time high in healthcare
  • 00:47:32
    United Health Group this is the largest
  • 00:47:34
    stock in the Dow if I'm not mistaken so
  • 00:47:37
    the Dow that was just sitting at
  • 00:47:39
    all-time highs on Friday well guess what
  • 00:47:41
    United Health is also at all-time highs
  • 00:47:43
    that shouldn't be a big surprise guys we
  • 00:47:45
    had a 595 range breakout targeting the
  • 00:47:48
    620 to 625 price Target we do have a
  • 00:47:50
    couple people in this trade inside of
  • 00:47:52
    the Discord it's working very well for
  • 00:47:53
    them up and over 100% congrats to those
  • 00:47:55
    of you that grabbed unh no entry here
  • 00:47:57
    until we consolidate underneath 6225 is
  • 00:48:00
    right that 625 area that Fibonacci
  • 00:48:02
    extension up there will offer a new
  • 00:48:04
    opportunity to add in for those of us
  • 00:48:05
    that missed it myself included and we're
  • 00:48:07
    going to go out there targeting north of
  • 00:48:08
    700 so an opportunity very soon here on
  • 00:48:11
    that United Health this is the leading
  • 00:48:12
    Healthcare stock second largest market
  • 00:48:15
    cap I believe Eli Lily is has a cliped
  • 00:48:17
    it but the most important component of
  • 00:48:19
    the Dow Mankind we have this trade on
  • 00:48:22
    the books it's up uh right now for us
  • 00:48:24
    not buy a whole lot though so an
  • 00:48:25
    opportunity for you if you like this
  • 00:48:27
    type of range breakout right this is not
  • 00:48:29
    an all-time high I believe but I think
  • 00:48:30
    it's like a decade high or something so
  • 00:48:32
    essentially a big blue sky unless you
  • 00:48:34
    want to assume somebody 10 years ago
  • 00:48:35
    bought some shares and they're still
  • 00:48:36
    pissed off and they want to offload it
  • 00:48:38
    for Break Even probably not but maybe
  • 00:48:40
    200 day moving average sloped up with in
  • 00:48:42
    a bullish momentum regime all
  • 00:48:44
    year really a nice stock here right we
  • 00:48:47
    want to Target anything near 775 to
  • 00:48:49
    eight bucks want to own it above 575
  • 00:48:51
    currently trading 611 so any sort of
  • 00:48:53
    weakness that comes in if you want to
  • 00:48:54
    own that with us feel free we really
  • 00:48:56
    like this set these range highs really
  • 00:48:58
    have performed well for us for the last
  • 00:48:59
    18 months here's another stage one into
  • 00:49:01
    stage two a lot of these are showing up
  • 00:49:04
    we were trading these in January and
  • 00:49:05
    February of 2023 and they ended up being
  • 00:49:07
    some of the biggest gains we made in
  • 00:49:11
    2023 20124 hasn't had a whole lot of
  • 00:49:14
    these stage one and Stage twos because
  • 00:49:15
    most of the stocks that were leading the
  • 00:49:17
    market had already completed these stage
  • 00:49:19
    one and Stage twos well now we have an
  • 00:49:21
    area of the market that hasn't yet
  • 00:49:22
    performed up to its standard right
  • 00:49:24
    Healthcare just breaking out to all-time
  • 00:49:26
    highs just joining the bull market and
  • 00:49:28
    now we have of course all these stocks
  • 00:49:30
    looking to complete their stage one into
  • 00:49:31
    Stage twos we're expecting most of these
  • 00:49:34
    well let's be honest we're expecting all
  • 00:49:35
    these stage ones to break out and start
  • 00:49:37
    a stage two Advance that's why we want
  • 00:49:38
    to own them Trading North of a upward
  • 00:49:41
    slope 200 day moving average this is not
  • 00:49:43
    a bullish momentum regime yet we have
  • 00:49:45
    yet to oscillate down towards that 50
  • 00:49:47
    but RSI is above the 50 which means it's
  • 00:49:49
    green lit to own 91 and above we want to
  • 00:49:52
    own it to
  • 00:49:54
    1045 there's a low volume Gap that you
  • 00:49:56
    can see on the right that vvp so we are
  • 00:49:59
    not expecting a whole lot of resistance
  • 00:50:01
    on the way up we look at this as an
  • 00:50:03
    opportunity to own a potential Health
  • 00:50:05
    Care stock through a volume gap which
  • 00:50:08
    tends to have a violent move to the
  • 00:50:11
    upside so if you're looking at calls
  • 00:50:12
    there I did not check the options chain
  • 00:50:14
    on this if the IV is relatively low this
  • 00:50:16
    is an opportunity to own straight calls
  • 00:50:18
    depending on your own risk as well right
  • 00:50:20
    don't go out and lever up your account
  • 00:50:22
    on stuff like this but calls here are a
  • 00:50:24
    great opportunity to take advantage of
  • 00:50:25
    an IV potti IV expansion on the breakout
  • 00:50:28
    so metatronic on The
  • 00:50:30
    Daily let's look at some industrial
  • 00:50:33
    names by the way Dow Jones Industrial
  • 00:50:36
    the industrial sector uh the Dax by the
  • 00:50:38
    way the the German Stock Exchange you
  • 00:50:40
    superimpose these charts they look
  • 00:50:42
    basically the same the German Dax I
  • 00:50:45
    think has comprised 65 or 70% of
  • 00:50:48
    industrial related stocks so it
  • 00:50:49
    shouldn't be a surprise to see that this
  • 00:50:51
    sector breaking out all the other areas
  • 00:50:53
    of the market that Vibe with Industrials
  • 00:50:55
    are also breaking out so all time high
  • 00:50:56
    with Industrials now Industrials is a
  • 00:50:58
    little bit of a harder sector to
  • 00:51:02
    trade because it's a grab bag sector in
  • 00:51:05
    of itself holds a lot of different
  • 00:51:08
    industry groups you can everything
  • 00:51:09
    everything from ADP by the way which is
  • 00:51:10
    like a professional services to
  • 00:51:12
    Logistics and trucking you have Airlines
  • 00:51:15
    you have railroads you have Uber lots of
  • 00:51:18
    different types of stocks Aerospace and
  • 00:51:20
    defense you have Ron lots of different
  • 00:51:21
    types of stocks in this so when
  • 00:51:22
    Industrials are breaking out generally
  • 00:51:25
    at least old School type of Traders will
  • 00:51:27
    look at that as a broad-based market
  • 00:51:29
    breakout as well because there's so many
  • 00:51:31
    different industry groups participating
  • 00:51:33
    ADP is the next big large cap breaking
  • 00:51:36
    out into new highs want to own it above
  • 00:51:38
    270 currently trading 275 you haven't
  • 00:51:39
    really missed it if you want to own it
  • 00:51:41
    310 is the price Target we want to own
  • 00:51:42
    it as long as it's staying above the 270
  • 00:51:45
    pivot we did buy options on this I don't
  • 00:51:47
    remember exactly I think we bought the
  • 00:51:49
    $300 January calls if I'm not mistaken
  • 00:51:52
    um and it's doing all right right we're
  • 00:51:53
    not down on this trade very much if at
  • 00:51:55
    all depending on where you got an entry
  • 00:51:57
    here but as long as we're holding 270
  • 00:51:58
    we're looking for that 3 310 area move
  • 00:52:01
    for ADP who would have expected ADP not
  • 00:52:03
    me not in a millionair I thought that
  • 00:52:05
    company was dying you know but here we
  • 00:52:07
    go ADP rules the world apparently in
  • 00:52:09
    that part of the world Union Pacific
  • 00:52:10
    Corporation for those of you that like
  • 00:52:11
    owning logistics companies I don't know
  • 00:52:14
    why but that's okay railroads why why
  • 00:52:17
    not own railroads you need Pacific on
  • 00:52:19
    The Daily above 255 Target all-time high
  • 00:52:22
    $300
  • 00:52:24
    area remember we were talking about the
  • 00:52:26
    Dow Jones Transportation average we're
  • 00:52:28
    expecting that to resolve higher it's
  • 00:52:30
    been building a base since 2021 well so
  • 00:52:33
    has Union Pacific Corporation and we're
  • 00:52:35
    finally pressing in towards those highs
  • 00:52:38
    above 255 Target 300 we are in a bullish
  • 00:52:41
    momentum regime and in somewhat of a
  • 00:52:43
    blue a big blue sky
  • 00:52:45
    environment obviously we did trade back
  • 00:52:47
    here previously but if you look over at
  • 00:52:49
    the right hand side of the chart there's
  • 00:52:50
    not a whole lot of volume up there so we
  • 00:52:52
    use this as an opportunity to view you
  • 00:52:54
    know what are the odds that the path of
  • 00:52:55
    loose resistance is not higher it's very
  • 00:52:57
    low there weren't a whole lot of shares
  • 00:52:58
    exchanged back up here in late 2021
  • 00:53:01
    early 2022 so we like this trade for a
  • 00:53:03
    big blue sky setup if calls fit your
  • 00:53:06
    risk um above an upward sloping 200
  • 00:53:08
    moving average and in a bullish momentum
  • 00:53:10
    regime you can own a couple couple calls
  • 00:53:12
    in UNP let's look at financials which is
  • 00:53:13
    my favorite sector right now this has
  • 00:53:15
    been my highest performing sector this
  • 00:53:17
    year I've made more money trading
  • 00:53:19
    Financial stocks this year than tech
  • 00:53:20
    stocks it's just the way it goes
  • 00:53:22
    sometimes I had no idea when I put the
  • 00:53:23
    JP Morgan trade on in January that I was
  • 00:53:25
    going to make as much as I did and to
  • 00:53:28
    all of my glorious haters on Twitter and
  • 00:53:30
    YouTube that told me JP Morgan sucked
  • 00:53:31
    and the market was going to roll over
  • 00:53:33
    once again I'm glad I don't listen to
  • 00:53:35
    absolutely anything you say respectfully
  • 00:53:38
    Insurance who had Insurance up right we
  • 00:53:40
    talked about insurance second best
  • 00:53:42
    performing Industry Group this year we
  • 00:53:45
    have four major insurance providers up
  • 00:53:47
    at all-time highs we have afflac
  • 00:53:48
    Progressive MetLife and travelers once
  • 00:53:51
    again not the sexiest area of the market
  • 00:53:53
    to trade but these are the market or
  • 00:53:55
    these are the areas of the Market that
  • 00:53:56
    are performing well so if you're looking
  • 00:53:59
    to put a trade on that's lower
  • 00:54:01
    volatility these are probably not
  • 00:54:03
    terrible areas to start looking at look
  • 00:54:05
    at that Progressive chart look at that
  • 00:54:08
    afflac chart we had a trade ID out for
  • 00:54:11
    Progressive back at the 155 pivot it's
  • 00:54:13
    currently trading
  • 00:54:15
    253 once again you tell your boys in
  • 00:54:17
    group chat or your gals that you're
  • 00:54:19
    buying Progressive they're going to go
  • 00:54:21
    what the hell are you doing I thought
  • 00:54:22
    you had car insurance you're going to go
  • 00:54:23
    I'm talking about the stock it's up
  • 00:54:25
    almost 100% Travelers there is an
  • 00:54:27
    opportunity to own this after
  • 00:54:29
    consolidating for a majority of 2024 it
  • 00:54:31
    does look like it wants to continue its
  • 00:54:33
    breakout here nice little rounded bottom
  • 00:54:35
    into a continuation
  • 00:54:36
    fractal excuse me we're targeting 280
  • 00:54:40
    right we want to be long above the 232
  • 00:54:42
    area targeting 280 probably a better
  • 00:54:44
    shares trade by the way than a options
  • 00:54:47
    trade but if you go through the options
  • 00:54:48
    chain and you find something with
  • 00:54:49
    liquidity the problem with these
  • 00:54:51
    insurance companies on an options basis
  • 00:54:53
    is there's just not a lot of volume and
  • 00:54:55
    open interest in some of them
  • 00:54:56
    Progressive and afflac habit because the
  • 00:54:58
    goddamn chks are parabolic of buying it
  • 00:55:00
    back here was difficult it was very hard
  • 00:55:02
    to go out and buy that stuff because
  • 00:55:03
    there was nobody interested at the time
  • 00:55:05
    but isn't that how stuff goes fomo when
  • 00:55:07
    stocks go parabolic all of a sudden
  • 00:55:09
    everybody wants to own this stuff
  • 00:55:10
    Travelers is probably going to be in
  • 00:55:12
    that realm as well not a whole lot of
  • 00:55:13
    open interest and volume but I encourage
  • 00:55:15
    you to go check yourself still a nice
  • 00:55:17
    breakout above 232 targeting
  • 00:55:19
    280 continuation playoff Travelers and
  • 00:55:22
    insurance once again working well this
  • 00:55:24
    is a trade we put on last week uh sent
  • 00:55:27
    out in a newsletter as
  • 00:55:29
    well uh Bank of melon Bank of New York
  • 00:55:32
    melon excuse me working well for us
  • 00:55:33
    above 645 we have a price Target up
  • 00:55:35
    there at 80 bucks I believe we bought
  • 00:55:37
    januaries if I'm not mistaken januaries
  • 00:55:40
    or marches of next year so we're going
  • 00:55:41
    out there we expect this to take a
  • 00:55:43
    little bit longer but a nice two-year
  • 00:55:44
    range breakout high and also if you go
  • 00:55:46
    back scroll all the way back 10 plus
  • 00:55:49
    years you'll realize that we're breaking
  • 00:55:51
    out into a decade plus high as well so
  • 00:55:53
    that's fun little uh Confluence there
  • 00:55:56
    with the Bank of New York melon I love
  • 00:55:57
    financials these stocks tend to just
  • 00:55:59
    continue to work this year and so I'm
  • 00:56:00
    going to continue to own them while
  • 00:56:01
    they're working Bank of melon once again
  • 00:56:03
    good opportunity bullish M regime Etc
  • 00:56:05
    Bank of Nova Scotia completing a
  • 00:56:07
    potential stage one into stage two all I
  • 00:56:10
    hear about is Canadian stocks suck and
  • 00:56:12
    here you got a Bank of Nova Scotia
  • 00:56:14
    pressing up against previous uh
  • 00:56:16
    resistance up there at 51 if it flips 51
  • 00:56:19
    There's an opportunity to own this up to
  • 00:56:20
    5780 and this does have options
  • 00:56:22
    availability we have a guy inside of the
  • 00:56:25
    Discord right now that was like long
  • 00:56:26
    Bank of Nova Scotia and he's up over
  • 00:56:28
    100% so we're looking to get along as a
  • 00:56:30
    community above 51 targeting 5750 58
  • 00:56:33
    something like that it's only a $6 move
  • 00:56:35
    but obviously the percentage there makes
  • 00:56:37
    it attractive tday moving average sloped
  • 00:56:39
    up or within a bullish momentum regime
  • 00:56:40
    opportunity there for Bank of Nova
  • 00:56:43
    Scotia Intercontinental Exchange not
  • 00:56:45
    something we can own here but there was
  • 00:56:47
    a trade idea out in a Heavy Hitters
  • 00:56:48
    report
  • 00:56:50
    13950 just showing you guys that once
  • 00:56:52
    again nobody wants to own this stuff
  • 00:56:54
    until you flip through these charts and
  • 00:56:55
    you're like holy I wish I
  • 00:56:56
    bought it when I looked at it myself
  • 00:56:57
    included I don't own IC but I'm just
  • 00:57:00
    trying to build rapport here with
  • 00:57:01
    different types of stocks you don't need
  • 00:57:02
    to go and own tech stocks there's plenty
  • 00:57:04
    of opportunities out there across the
  • 00:57:05
    board in different sectors MasterCard is
  • 00:57:07
    a stock we do want to own we owned
  • 00:57:09
    MasterCard earlier it worked okay for us
  • 00:57:12
    um we owned Visa it worked okay for us
  • 00:57:15
    we have the same kind of idea it's going
  • 00:57:17
    to work probably okay for us from an
  • 00:57:18
    option standpoint just a lot slower
  • 00:57:20
    mover like I'm telling you guys from
  • 00:57:22
    personal experience the trade worked we
  • 00:57:24
    hit our price Target was not the most
  • 00:57:26
    most enjoyable trade having said that if
  • 00:57:28
    you want large cap exposure in
  • 00:57:30
    financials which is increasingly harder
  • 00:57:31
    to find JP Morgan is not really pulling
  • 00:57:34
    back um KKR Etc MasterCard is giving you
  • 00:57:38
    a new risk on level you want to own this
  • 00:57:40
    above 485 price Target North of 500
  • 00:57:43
    bucks options contracts are out there
  • 00:57:45
    the MasterCard and the Visa trade both
  • 00:57:47
    liquid on the chain it's going to be
  • 00:57:48
    expensive so call debit spread this if
  • 00:57:50
    you need to bring that cost down but a
  • 00:57:52
    nice continuation play and by the way
  • 00:57:54
    another dig at the consumer apparently
  • 00:57:56
    in the United States is going down
  • 00:57:58
    MasterCard and Visa's entire goddamn
  • 00:58:00
    business model is based off of consumers
  • 00:58:02
    swiping their cards so tell me why this
  • 00:58:05
    stock is going up if we aren't spending
  • 00:58:07
    money anymore right it just doesn't make
  • 00:58:09
    sense trade the charts not the headlines
  • 00:58:11
    MasterCard once again continuation
  • 00:58:13
    fractal above 485 targeting 575 material
  • 00:58:16
    sector another area of the market very
  • 00:58:18
    few people want to trade I understand it
  • 00:58:20
    but guess what alltime high materials
  • 00:58:22
    here's Sherwin Williams a paint company
  • 00:58:24
    sure everybody has heard of this above
  • 00:58:26
    353 targeting 450 451 currently trading
  • 00:58:29
    362 not the easiest options trade to
  • 00:58:31
    take options chain is a little illiquid
  • 00:58:33
    but if you find something you can make
  • 00:58:35
    it work not a bad little risk of return
  • 00:58:36
    here this is also a pretty good shares
  • 00:58:38
    trade slower moving set the expectation
  • 00:58:40
    this might take four to six months maybe
  • 00:58:42
    a little longer but it's a high R to R
  • 00:58:44
    trade you're long above 30 uh 350 350
  • 00:58:47
    with the stop right underneath that
  • 00:58:48
    proprietary gray box and the stop out or
  • 00:58:50
    takeprofit excuse me all the way up at
  • 00:58:53
    450 this is like an 8 to 10 to one setup
  • 00:58:55
    so you you know you can hate owning
  • 00:58:57
    lower volatility stocks you don't even
  • 00:58:59
    got to like painting companies I don't
  • 00:59:01
    people don't like Sherman Williams you
  • 00:59:02
    like a different type of paint the stock
  • 00:59:04
    chart is amazing we like it we want to
  • 00:59:05
    own it Lind Chemical Company right same
  • 00:59:10
    type of setup as MasterCard it's a
  • 00:59:12
    continuation fractal after about a seven
  • 00:59:14
    to eight month consolidation range we
  • 00:59:15
    want to own this above 481 which is that
  • 00:59:18
    FIB Target and where do you think the
  • 00:59:19
    next price Target is 565 you don't got
  • 00:59:22
    to make it any more complicated than
  • 00:59:23
    that nice upward sloping T moving
  • 00:59:26
    average pric has tracked that all year
  • 00:59:28
    we've re-entered a bullish momentum
  • 00:59:29
    regime going back last couple of months
  • 00:59:30
    we like Lind above on a continuation
  • 00:59:32
    play 481 targeting 565 that is an
  • 00:59:35
    options playable name Granite
  • 00:59:37
    Construction we opened up as a community
  • 00:59:40
    two weeks ago it's working it's slow
  • 00:59:42
    it's working this is a cement in a home
  • 00:59:45
    construction based Company still an
  • 00:59:47
    opportunity for you if you want to own
  • 00:59:48
    this for shares the options contracts
  • 00:59:50
    are SL you know not moving as much as we
  • 00:59:52
    would have hoped but the shares trade is
  • 00:59:54
    working well we want to own it above 68
  • 00:59:56
    with a price Target up near 1045 or 105
  • 00:59:58
    once again this is a highrisk reward
  • 01:00:00
    setup like the Sherwin Williams it's
  • 01:00:01
    going to take a little bit longer but
  • 01:00:02
    this is a 7 to 8 to one setup so risking
  • 01:00:05
    $1 to make eight up at that price Target
  • 01:00:07
    not a bad idea for those of you that are
  • 01:00:08
    okay with sitting in stuff a little bit
  • 01:00:10
    longer real estate we took this trade
  • 01:00:12
    two weeks ago you guys took it if you
  • 01:00:13
    were here this was in the uh public
  • 01:00:15
    webinar as well we bought those $45
  • 01:00:18
    calls and those are up oops let's go
  • 01:00:20
    back really quick those are up right now
  • 01:00:22
    so we got $45 calls we're looking for a
  • 01:00:24
    $48 price Target whether you want to you
  • 01:00:26
    know say that real estate's up because
  • 01:00:28
    interest rates are coming down in
  • 01:00:29
    September and that's bullish for Real
  • 01:00:30
    Estate be my guest I don't care the only
  • 01:00:32
    thing I care about is this was a stage
  • 01:00:34
    one and a stage two break out of 42
  • 01:00:37
    paint whatever narrative you need I'm
  • 01:00:39
    making money on the calls because I
  • 01:00:40
    bought it above the imaginary line and
  • 01:00:42
    we're going to continue to own those
  • 01:00:43
    once again a good opportunity to own a
  • 01:00:45
    stock in a low IV environment breaking
  • 01:00:47
    out into a two-year High that's when you
  • 01:00:49
    really want to try to grab those calls
  • 01:00:50
    if they fit your risk call debit spreads
  • 01:00:52
    are fine if it's too expensive but calls
  • 01:00:54
    are generally going to be prefer able
  • 01:00:56
    and low IV environments because you're
  • 01:00:57
    going to make money two different ways
  • 01:00:59
    the directional move and implied
  • 01:01:01
    volatility obviously expanding so we're
  • 01:01:02
    in a bunch of these stocks right now
  • 01:01:04
    that are breaking out that most people
  • 01:01:06
    either don't even know are available or
  • 01:01:09
    they're like ah these things these
  • 01:01:10
    things are boring I'm going to you know
  • 01:01:11
    I don't want to trade that we will
  • 01:01:13
    absolutely we will and we're getting
  • 01:01:15
    paid by owning some of these lower
  • 01:01:16
    volatility Consumer Staples real estate
  • 01:01:18
    stocks right American Health Reit this
  • 01:01:21
    is in our big blue skies scanner I'm
  • 01:01:23
    only showing you this nobody in in the
  • 01:01:26
    group including myself owned this we own
  • 01:01:28
    a a a different stock that looks
  • 01:01:30
    relatively the same within the same
  • 01:01:31
    Industry Group but there's a lot of push
  • 01:01:34
    back when I post some of these types of
  • 01:01:35
    setups on social media that they don't
  • 01:01:37
    feel comfortable buying these IPOs I
  • 01:01:40
    understand that from a certain
  • 01:01:42
    perspective particularly if you started
  • 01:01:43
    trading in 2020 or 2021 because you were
  • 01:01:46
    buying the tops of IPOs but these IPOs
  • 01:01:48
    going back two to three years for the
  • 01:01:50
    most part have gone through complete
  • 01:01:52
    Market Cycles already they've gone
  • 01:01:53
    through stage three stage four in stage
  • 01:01:56
    one into stage two ahr is hitting a
  • 01:02:00
    market where we're in the middle of a
  • 01:02:01
    bull market right now these types of big
  • 01:02:03
    blue sky setups are being introduced in
  • 01:02:05
    the middle of a bull market you're not
  • 01:02:07
    buying these at those 2021 highs anymore
  • 01:02:09
    you're buying these when risk is getting
  • 01:02:11
    actively pushed into the market own them
  • 01:02:13
    as they break above their IPO range
  • 01:02:15
    highs and look at how fraking crazy they
  • 01:02:17
    are right I think the biggest most
  • 01:02:20
    recent and largest Big Blue Sky trade
  • 01:02:22
    that we put on that net it net us two to
  • 01:02:24
    3,000%
  • 01:02:25
    not over exaggerating was arm armm we
  • 01:02:29
    bought it in November of last year go
  • 01:02:31
    look at the chart we held it through
  • 01:02:33
    every single Gap up it was a 2 to 3,000%
  • 01:02:35
    winner relatively the same setup as this
  • 01:02:37
    not saying ahr is going to be that type
  • 01:02:39
    of setup but once again for those of you
  • 01:02:40
    that are always like I don't know take a
  • 01:02:43
    couple bucks throw it at these charts
  • 01:02:45
    the beauty is you're in the middle of a
  • 01:02:46
    bull market and for those of you that
  • 01:02:47
    know a little bit about economics price
  • 01:02:50
    equilibrium is nowhere to be found
  • 01:02:52
    nobody knows what this goddamn thing
  • 01:02:54
    should be worth and that is a potential
  • 01:02:56
    gold mine for a technical Trader that
  • 01:02:57
    follows breakouts momentum and Trends
  • 01:03:00
    right there is no real price Target here
  • 01:03:02
    we love that stuff American Tower into a
  • 01:03:04
    stage or in stage one into a stage two
  • 01:03:07
    another read this is a little bit harder
  • 01:03:08
    of an area to be owning from an option
  • 01:03:12
    standpoint because the liquidity on the
  • 01:03:14
    Chain can be poor so I tried to go
  • 01:03:17
    through and off the top of my head
  • 01:03:19
    because I've been trading these for so
  • 01:03:20
    long I know American tower has liquidity
  • 01:03:22
    on the Chain this is a very normal chart
  • 01:03:25
    pattern where you cut the stage in half
  • 01:03:27
    you see the stage stage Cycles here
  • 01:03:29
    uptrend distribution downtrend stage one
  • 01:03:32
    into a stage two this is we want to own
  • 01:03:34
    it above 232 and Target 280 an
  • 01:03:36
    opportunity to own this from an option
  • 01:03:38
    standpoint and a share standpoint
  • 01:03:40
    bullish momentum regime upward sloping
  • 01:03:42
    2day moving average we like American
  • 01:03:44
    tower for some real estate exposure this
  • 01:03:46
    is another chart that's totally fine
  • 01:03:48
    this is going to be a little harder to
  • 01:03:49
    own from an option standpoint but from a
  • 01:03:50
    share standpoint it's a high R to R
  • 01:03:52
    trade just like Sherwin Williams and CVA
  • 01:03:54
    and everything else own it above 111
  • 01:03:56
    price Target 140 stop out below the
  • 01:03:59
    proprietary gray box this is about a 5
  • 01:04:01
    to1 setup right now but also just want
  • 01:04:03
    to point this out commercial real estate
  • 01:04:05
    is supposed to blow up and yet CBRE
  • 01:04:07
    which is obviously the poster child of
  • 01:04:08
    commercial real estate these are
  • 01:04:10
    all-time highs folks so whether or not
  • 01:04:12
    this commercial real estate bubble
  • 01:04:13
    exists or is going to
  • 01:04:16
    implode I don't care it probably will
  • 01:04:19
    but for the meantime we're going to own
  • 01:04:20
    the stock because it's going up you can
  • 01:04:21
    make a lot of money in bubbles if you
  • 01:04:23
    catch the right side of the bubble home
  • 01:04:24
    construction just to kind kind of
  • 01:04:26
    extrapolate off that idea last week went
  • 01:04:28
    out at alltime
  • 01:04:29
    highs you know home construction slowing
  • 01:04:32
    down that's real that's a fact we can
  • 01:04:34
    see it the data and yet the stocks
  • 01:04:35
    continue to push higher so if you're
  • 01:04:37
    trading based off of the headlines
  • 01:04:38
    you're going to get steamrolled over so
  • 01:04:40
    home construction and there's a slew of
  • 01:04:42
    home construction names I didn't include
  • 01:04:43
    them here I don't believe yeah I didn't
  • 01:04:46
    a slew of home construction names that
  • 01:04:47
    are trading north of their 200 moving
  • 01:04:49
    average and potentially breaking out to
  • 01:04:51
    all-time highs we've traded a couple of
  • 01:04:52
    them AAC bldr right go and do your
  • 01:04:55
    homework on those let's move into the
  • 01:04:57
    final portion of this webinar here 10
  • 01:04:59
    out of 11 sectors are trading north of
  • 01:05:00
    their T day moving average the only
  • 01:05:01
    sector that just flipped red actually
  • 01:05:03
    was uh energy energy the one area of the
  • 01:05:05
    market that has just not performed well
  • 01:05:06
    for a long time you saw the tweet I put
  • 01:05:08
    out a couple of hours ago defining what
  • 01:05:10
    a bearish momentum regime and a bullish
  • 01:05:12
    momentum regime is if you didn't see it
  • 01:05:14
    how to swing trade on Twitter it will
  • 01:05:15
    give you an Insight on how we use that
  • 01:05:17
    term the momentum regimes we don't want
  • 01:05:19
    to own things in downtrends and
  • 01:05:21
    unfortunately energy has just been in a
  • 01:05:23
    downtrend after breaking above its 93
  • 01:05:25
    area in to potential 10year highs and
  • 01:05:27
    then fading we don't buy downtrends we
  • 01:05:29
    do not buy dips and bearish momentum
  • 01:05:31
    regimes every other area of the market
  • 01:05:33
    still holding up although Tech is
  • 01:05:34
    lagging only above its 200 moving
  • 01:05:36
    average by 1.35% move on to some
  • 01:05:39
    Emerging Market names we're going to
  • 01:05:40
    wrap it up with the dollar and then
  • 01:05:42
    that's it C limited here we're just
  • 01:05:44
    waiting this is a fantastic trading
  • 01:05:46
    opportunity but we want to wait until 88
  • 01:05:48
    bucks or above we took an early crack on
  • 01:05:50
    this it didn't work that's okay we want
  • 01:05:52
    to limit our losses by not doubling down
  • 01:05:54
    on this stuff until it clears over
  • 01:05:55
    overhead resistance 90 88 anywhere up
  • 01:05:58
    there stage one into a stage two we've
  • 01:06:00
    been here for two plus years this looks
  • 01:06:02
    like a picture perfect stage one into
  • 01:06:04
    stage two we will own this 100% above 88
  • 01:06:07
    set your alert when it's up there ping
  • 01:06:09
    me go yo we're up there are we owning it
  • 01:06:12
    we're already looking at the options at
  • 01:06:13
    that point right want to own it up to
  • 01:06:15
    1275 above 88 bucks until then we want
  • 01:06:17
    to wait and then coupang cpng the South
  • 01:06:20
    Korean Amazon I believe right we do own
  • 01:06:23
    this we went out to February we just had
  • 01:06:25
    a 2-year plus High breakout earlier
  • 01:06:27
    today an opportunity for you to tail the
  • 01:06:29
    trade if you want uh we had a an option
  • 01:06:32
    to buy the December January or
  • 01:06:34
    februaries we got the February 2025 $25
  • 01:06:38
    call yep we went really far out there uh
  • 01:06:41
    five six months at the you know when we
  • 01:06:43
    originally bought it but when we were
  • 01:06:45
    looking at the trades we were looking at
  • 01:06:47
    open interest and volume and there was
  • 01:06:50
    for whatever reason an elephant print on
  • 01:06:52
    the options chain for those of you that
  • 01:06:54
    know what that means either a dedicated
  • 01:06:56
    buyer or some sort of uh service or
  • 01:06:59
    whatever was just buying these contracts
  • 01:07:01
    hand over fist February $25 calls and
  • 01:07:03
    they were cheap so we said why not just
  • 01:07:04
    tail them it's the exact same trade idea
  • 01:07:06
    we expect this to be a stage one into a
  • 01:07:08
    stage two which it is we're buying a
  • 01:07:10
    couple extra months right two extra
  • 01:07:12
    months is not going to kill anybody
  • 01:07:13
    didn't really bring the uh value of the
  • 01:07:16
    trade up too much uh dollar amount wise
  • 01:07:18
    but we're within a bullish momentum
  • 01:07:19
    regime right we're Trading North of a
  • 01:07:21
    200 day moving average this gives us
  • 01:07:22
    some of that Emerging Market dis uh
  • 01:07:24
    consumer discretion Ary exposure that is
  • 01:07:27
    working right now right consumer
  • 01:07:28
    discretionary is not working so well in
  • 01:07:30
    the United States but outside of the
  • 01:07:31
    United States it is working well you
  • 01:07:33
    know for whatever reason right coupang
  • 01:07:35
    looks okay so we're going to own it
  • 01:07:36
    merging Market this is your opportunity
  • 01:07:38
    to own a name outside of the US market
  • 01:07:41
    wrap it up with gold in the dollar gold
  • 01:07:42
    looks great don't care if anybody says
  • 01:07:43
    we have two trades on this both of them
  • 01:07:46
    are positive there's no reason to expect
  • 01:07:48
    gold not to continue on up to
  • 01:07:51
    2750 sounds ridiculous but I want to be
  • 01:07:53
    honest with you when we were breaking
  • 01:07:54
    above 2050 I thought 2300 was ridiculous
  • 01:07:57
    and it took two weeks to get there we've
  • 01:07:58
    Consolidated since then no idea what's
  • 01:08:01
    going on behind the the uh the curtains
  • 01:08:03
    there with the macro moves and stuff
  • 01:08:04
    like that I simply don't care enough
  • 01:08:06
    people are giving their opinions on
  • 01:08:07
    Twitter and a lot of them have been
  • 01:08:08
    wrong the only thing I know is I wanted
  • 01:08:10
    to be long above the Range High at 250
  • 01:08:12
    bucks and we got it and then we wanted
  • 01:08:15
    to add into a pullback to 2300 and we
  • 01:08:18
    got that too we're currently up on bolt
  • 01:08:19
    positions not looking to add here we're
  • 01:08:21
    in the middle of a move price Target 27
  • 01:08:24
    2750 excuse me
  • 01:08:26
    silver has not performed well we have
  • 01:08:28
    not taken a silver trade as a community
  • 01:08:30
    as far as I know I never took it for
  • 01:08:32
    whatever reason not up for me to side
  • 01:08:34
    silver is not performing as well as gold
  • 01:08:35
    I'm not here to argue why it just isn't
  • 01:08:37
    so we're not going to own it
  • 01:08:39
    definitively until we're within a
  • 01:08:40
    bullish momentum regime and above 27
  • 01:08:43
    right we can all Shake Hands on that the
  • 01:08:45
    dollar is the last thing I want to talk
  • 01:08:46
    about the dollar inverse correlation
  • 01:08:50
    right inverse correlation between the US
  • 01:08:53
    Stock Market and the dollar when the
  • 01:08:55
    dollar goes up the stock market tends to
  • 01:08:57
    face headwinds we tend to have choppy
  • 01:09:00
    price action when the dollar goes down
  • 01:09:02
    the stock market tends to perform better
  • 01:09:05
    now it doesn't mean that the stock
  • 01:09:07
    market has to roll over if the dollar is
  • 01:09:09
    moving up but it typically means there's
  • 01:09:11
    headwinds there so we have been in a
  • 01:09:14
    relative downtrend in the dollar this
  • 01:09:17
    this uh excuse me this correlation has
  • 01:09:19
    existed for the last two two and a half
  • 01:09:21
    years and now we're bouncing off of
  • 01:09:23
    previous support going back two years is
  • 01:09:25
    it reasonable to assume the dollar finds
  • 01:09:27
    support here yeah has it over the last
  • 01:09:29
    couple of days yes has the stock market
  • 01:09:31
    shuttered a little bit the last couple
  • 01:09:32
    of days yes none of this stuff is
  • 01:09:35
    coincidence these relationships exist my
  • 01:09:37
    question to you and I don't know what
  • 01:09:38
    the answer is is do we eventually break
  • 01:09:40
    100 or 101 and start breaking down from
  • 01:09:43
    this range or do we go all the way back
  • 01:09:45
    up to the 106 107 area and potentially
  • 01:09:47
    Break range high or would you do we just
  • 01:09:50
    continue to oscillate I don't know what
  • 01:09:51
    the answer is but understanding that
  • 01:09:53
    that inverse correlation is imperative
  • 01:09:55
    right if you know that the dollar is
  • 01:09:56
    going up the stock market is being
  • 01:09:58
    choppy you go well I expect that to
  • 01:10:00
    happen soon as you see the dollar start
  • 01:10:02
    to drop you reasonable expectation that
  • 01:10:04
    the market is going to normalize and
  • 01:10:06
    potentially start ripping back up well
  • 01:10:08
    I kind of knew that right so keep
  • 01:10:09
    this always on your watch list the
  • 01:10:11
    dollar you know you can recreate this
  • 01:10:13
    trading range everybody on Twitter has
  • 01:10:15
    the same range it's very apparent two
  • 01:10:17
    plus years my big question here is do we
  • 01:10:19
    eventually flip this to the downside and
  • 01:10:20
    start a downtrend because if that
  • 01:10:21
    happens I think markets are at all-time
  • 01:10:23
    highs across the board okay so big
  • 01:10:26
    themes here seasonal September we went
  • 01:10:28
    through it at the very beginning it's
  • 01:10:29
    the weakest month on average have that
  • 01:10:30
    expectation now stock showing leadership
  • 01:10:32
    through the end of summer LED Q4 of 2023
  • 01:10:35
    no reason to expect that to change
  • 01:10:37
    particularly within the high beta area
  • 01:10:39
    create your watch list now of high beta
  • 01:10:42
    stocks that are holding up better than
  • 01:10:43
    the broader indexes those are typically
  • 01:10:45
    going to outperform when or if the high
  • 01:10:48
    beta area starts to rebound which we
  • 01:10:49
    think it will buying strong sector
  • 01:10:51
    breakouts with time has been the key
  • 01:10:53
    over the last couple months I didn't
  • 01:10:54
    show a that we put on back in February
  • 01:10:56
    but we took a c RR trade an industrial
  • 01:10:59
    related name February to September that
  • 01:11:02
    trade was 100% winner on Friday of last
  • 01:11:05
    week you know most people can't sit and
  • 01:11:07
    stuff like that though but that trade is
  • 01:11:09
    working those are the types of Trades
  • 01:11:10
    that are working right now I'm not
  • 01:11:11
    saying you have to own it for a year but
  • 01:11:13
    buy more time than you re reasonably
  • 01:11:15
    expect if they're lower volatility guys
  • 01:11:16
    a bouncing dollar could prove headwind
  • 01:11:18
    for stocks again it's been that way for
  • 01:11:19
    two plus years points of emphasis
  • 01:11:21
    rotation should not be construed as
  • 01:11:23
    rollover I just Prov to you six s
  • 01:11:25
    alltime highs equal weighted S&P 500
  • 01:11:28
    alltime highs the Dow Jones Industrial
  • 01:11:30
    on Friday alltime highs and yet we have
  • 01:11:32
    significant weakness in semis and Tech
  • 01:11:35
    rotation should not be misconstrued as
  • 01:11:37
    the markets are rolling over it's simply
  • 01:11:39
    that higher beta stocks right now are
  • 01:11:40
    not performing as well as lower
  • 01:11:42
    volatility that's where you should be
  • 01:11:44
    focused Market breath is increasing even
  • 01:11:46
    as index is chopped to Bears dismay this
  • 01:11:48
    is not what they want if they want their
  • 01:11:50
    Market to fall into new lows a majority
  • 01:11:52
    of the stocks in the market have to be
  • 01:11:53
    falling as well and it's just not
  • 01:11:55
    happening lastly do not get complacent
  • 01:11:58
    same advice as last year guys biggest
  • 01:12:00
    wins come after correction if this
  • 01:12:02
    summer weakness continues through the
  • 01:12:04
    end of September look for those relative
  • 01:12:06
    strength stocks build that watch list in
  • 01:12:09
    October of last year we bought meta it
  • 01:12:11
    was a $200,000 win for us no we
  • 01:12:15
    bought arm we bought semiconductors we
  • 01:12:18
    bought app which was the first 10,00%
  • 01:12:20
    winner for a bunch of people in the
  • 01:12:22
    Discord that had joined over the summer
  • 01:12:24
    all of those stocks were showing
  • 01:12:25
    relative strength during the summer draw
  • 01:12:27
    down telling you I'm like arguably one
  • 01:12:31
    of the most like Biggest Secrets I guess
  • 01:12:34
    I can give you it's not really a secret
  • 01:12:35
    but nobody really uses it find stocks
  • 01:12:38
    that are outperforming the index because
  • 01:12:40
    when the index flips and starts back up
  • 01:12:42
    those stocks should outperform there's a
  • 01:12:44
    reason why financial institutions aren't
  • 01:12:46
    selling those my name is Hamilton here
  • 01:12:47
    at the trading initiative you like this
  • 01:12:49
    type of content you can like And
  • 01:12:50
    subscribe if you want to join our
  • 01:12:51
    service link is above in chat feel free
  • 01:12:53
    it's a quarterly membership if you have
  • 01:12:54
    any question questions you can also
  • 01:12:55
    reach out to me I'll be happy to help I
  • 01:12:57
    enjoy this time this is my favorite time
  • 01:13:00
    of uh the month these monthly and mid-
  • 01:13:02
    monthly charting sessions that allows us
  • 01:13:03
    to take a step back not give into the
  • 01:13:06
    Doom and Gloom eventually the market
  • 01:13:08
    will roll over eventually there will be
  • 01:13:09
    a bare market and we will be there to
  • 01:13:11
    cover it that is not right now
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