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[Applause]
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everyone this is robroy and welcome to
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the LA wave options US market update as
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we do each and every week we show you
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the stocks that'll be featured in this
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recording and as a quick reminder if
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there's a particular stock you're
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interested in you can go directly to it
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using the chapters feature in this
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recording all right let's start talking
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about the markets we did have some big
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economic news this week that H seemed to
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move the markets and then it was like
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not so fast uh the first thing was the
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CPI report that came out on Wednesday uh
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the headline number was pretty much in
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line but the X number which is usually
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done to lower uh the inflation report
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but the X food and energy number
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actually came in on10th higher uh seemed
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to Spook the market a little bit on
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Wednesday morning I'll talk more about
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that in a minute um but then we had a
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big recovery some are calling it The
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Nvidia rally um again I'll ref refer to
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that more the moment but then on
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Thursday we had the PPI report which is
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wholesale prices um same thing headline
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number right in line with expectations
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but the core number the X food and
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energy number one10 higher than expected
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so kind of in line but slightly higher
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than expected on the inflationary side
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of things um seemed to uh um be a
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problem on Wednesday morning Thursday it
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was just a yawn as they continued uh the
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rally back to the upside
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so let's take a look at the charts and
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we'll see what's going on all kinds of
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chatter basically we're pretty locked
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into that 25 basis point rate cut in
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September I don't know if the Market's
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still thinking there could be 50 basis
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points but with those inflationary
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numbers um I already felt like the FED
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didn't want to go 50 basis points
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because that would kind of admit they're
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behind the curve which a lot of people
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think they are um but that would be
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admitting it so I think we're going to
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get 25 basis points but yet the market
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seems to like it um I have a little bit
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of theory here and we'll talk about that
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in a moment but there's the move off of
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the lows from Wednesday um and right
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around 11 o'clock when that CPI report
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came out Futures went down the market
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went down we went right down towards
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that uh previous low uh and then turned
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and moov back to the upside and pretty
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much rallied in a 45 degree angle the
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rest of the day on Wednesday then we had
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follow through on Thursday even after
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the PPI report was the same and then we
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followed through again today uh moving
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up into the close on Friday now believe
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it or not we're just a tiny bit
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overbought as far as the separation from
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where we closed and the high of the day
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and the 10day moving average now what
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we're looking at is can we take out that
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wave five high from back in July if we
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do the question will be does the wave
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five move over are we still in a wave
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five or does that five relabel and
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somehow which is kind of hard to believe
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based on what the bond Market has been
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screaming for so long um move into a
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wave three uh and continue to move
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higher we do have a qualified upward
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zigzag here which we need to pay
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attention to always pay attention to the
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zigzags as you know so way B correction
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there right around 45% which would send
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us up uh above that 580 level uh right
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up to the 590 Mark there uh if that
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zigzag was to play out but let's go
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ahead and take it off because first
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things first is we've got to get above
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uh this area right here uh around the
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580 level right here excuse me 565 level
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right where that previous wave five was
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if we can break that then I think we are
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looking at uh potentially moving up to
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590 a little bit hard to believe with
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what's going on in the bond market as I
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mentioned so let's take a look at that
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let's look at the tnx remember this is
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interest rates on the 10-year uh and
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when we take a look there
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you'll be able to see that uh rates are
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breaking still to the downside out of
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this symmetrical triangle that we had um
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that doesn't really make too much sense
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with the fact that the market is moving
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to the upside uh race moving lower at
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this point in time remember I talked
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about the symmetrical triangle and I
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didn't really see a positive scenario on
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the breakout if we break to the down
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side kind of telling us that the economy
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is weakening the jobs reports have had
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multiple downward revisions on the
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number of jobless claims being filed uh
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re revised higher meaning more people
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are out of work than the initial number
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uh so it's clear the economy is starting
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to weaken a little bit we had Ali
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Financial come out and say they have a
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concern about the consumers that people
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are being late on their car payments Etc
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um but then we had Bank of America that
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said they're not seeing that so we have
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all kinds of mixed information from the
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financial world uh but the bond market
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is showing rates continuing to go down
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uh which means the FED will have to be a
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little bit more aggressive on rate cuts
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at least that's what it means to me had
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we brok into the upside it just meant
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that inflation was a little bit hotter
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so I guess the one tenth higher on the
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core CPI and core PPI wasn't enough to
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really give us much of a bid here uh in
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the tnx as we move to TLT get a little
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bit longer on the curve here with the
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20e uh and remember uh this is prices
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where tnx yields prices and yields
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moving in verse proportion so uh there's
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still a bid in the bond market
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especially on the 20-year here so price
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is holding steady above that 100 level
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that's key as long as the TLT stays
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above 100 I think it's likely to
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continue higher so that means pric is
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going higher yields going lower uh
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pretty pretty crazy stuff uh that's
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occurring right now I think uh in the
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markets let's look at the vix and see
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what volatility has done we've been
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talking about uh the vix as far as
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whether or not we were going to break
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that back below that 17 and a half level
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and we did and you can see we're now
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back into that range between 12 and a
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half and 17 a half we had broken above
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it uh kind of looked like maybe the 17
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and a half old resistance was going to
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become new support but nope back below
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17 and a half uh yesterday and today so
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now we're back in that trading range
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between 12 a half and 17 A2 uh on the
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vix and since we're in the upper end of
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that range if we are going to stay in
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that range you could make an argument
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that the vix could drift lower which
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would kind of give uh uh energy for a
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continued rally uh in the markets which
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does seem a little difficult to believe
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at this point in time if we look at the
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dollar uh to me in the whole financial
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side of things the dollar is the most
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constructive because it's going sideways
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it's channeling that's what we want we
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don't want to lose the dollar we don't
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want to collapse in the dollar we can't
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afford to have countries uh view the
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dollar as not the last Bastion of
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support uh we need faith in the dollar
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from other countries around the globe
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but we don't necessarily want the dollar
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to get too strong because then it hurts
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exchange rates with companies with
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International exposure which most
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companies do now it's a global economy
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uh as they say so I do feel encouraged
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by the fact that we've been um
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consolidating this wave three to the
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downside on the dollar and going
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sideways that seems to be the most
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constructive thing going on some of the
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rest of it doesn't make sense now let's
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get to the DIA now the DIA is something
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that we've been talking about a lot at
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trade finder on Tuesdays and by the way
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if you haven't registered for trade
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finder you can do it using the link that
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you'll see on your screen uh we do it
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every Tuesday at 1 pm eastern time it's
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during Market hours so we look at the
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market live look at live ell wve charts
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we look for case study considerations
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and we have a live Q&A at the end we
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have a great Community love to have you
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join along with us so uh sign up for
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trade finder and join us on Tuesday uh
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but getting back to the DIA that is one
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of the case studies that we currently
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have open uh for trade finder as I said
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we look for case study considerations um
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for the DIA to move higher we've got it
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going to 424 and so you can see we are
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nearing that wave three High uh from the
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very end of August early September
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tiny bit overbought on the DIA as well
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but seemed to be well on a way of
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hitting that Target uh at 424 so that's
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the kind of cool stuff that uh we look
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at uh during trade finder now let's look
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at the cues uh and there's a zigzag
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there I've already labeled it for you in
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an effort to save time uh we can look
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for a continued move higher here if we
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take out this wave a high that b-wave
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correction is pretty strong right near
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that 61.8% FIB level if you've watched
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me at all you know that I believe that's
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the strongest of all FIB levels so if we
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can hold here and continue to move up uh
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we do have a chance for that seawave
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extension uh there definitely has been a
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bid uh in the higher beta names we do
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have the 10day moving average right at
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the 30-day you'd want to see that
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continue uh but it is encouraging that
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the cues are back above the 1030 and 50
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are the risk assets coming back the big
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Tech um the mag 7 Etc all that stuff are
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we coming back to that um you could make
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a case for it with rates going down
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other than the fact that is the economy
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changing we'll talk about how Nvidia has
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had an effect on this a little bit later
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on when we show the Nvidia chart but for
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right now on the cues all eyes are on
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this a-wave High uh it's got to take
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that out if it can then I do think we
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continue higher on the cues but uh tiny
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bit overbought but not significantly so
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so room to continue to move higher on
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the cues if we look at the WM the small
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caps uh came roaring back to life today
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uh they broke below we talked about this
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Tuesday as well uh during trade finder
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uh if we broke below 210 we would need
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to get back above 210 right away uh well
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we rallied back up yesterday didn't
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quite get above 210 but we did today so
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back above 210 on the iwm and now we see
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uh how far we can go uh does this mean
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that there is a a risk appetite a lot of
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people think the small caps are a good
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indication of risk on risk off uh in the
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markets I happen to be one of those
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people that that feels that way um
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little bit surprised to see the action
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that's going on based on the economic
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news so I was mentioning that uh I think
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that there could be another scenario I I
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wanted to go back at the S&P chart uh
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and right when we had this reversal on
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Wednesday was at 11:00 a.m. eastern time
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and that was right when uh the CEO
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Nvidia came out and said yeah things
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look great and just basically was uh all
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glowing about business Etc uh the demand
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is is still high and they're struggling
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to meet the demand uh so he was very
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bullish on everything and the market
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rallied right at that same moment was it
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coincidence uh or did that turn the
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market but boy we were selling hard and
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it looked like it was going to be a
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bloodbath on Wednesday until he made
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those comments at 11: a.m. uh and then
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we turned and rallied back to the upside
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but the rally was a bit odd to me in
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other words it moved in a 45 degree
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angle uh to the upside I switch back
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over here to uh an hourly chart I think
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you'll be able to see uh what I'm
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talking about uh so there was the lows
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there uh right in this area um that
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happened around 11: a. on the 11th and
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then we just kind of rallied and we've
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continued to Rally this way could it be
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the fed put in other words the FED has
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been known to come in and buy the S&P is
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that what's going on uh does the FED
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know that they're going to disappoint
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the market with only 25 basis points in
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the rate cut um they're seeing what's
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going on in the economy they saw how the
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market reacted to even a tiny bit hotter
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than expected CPI uh are is that what's
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putting a bit underneath the market uh
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it seems plausible uh it's happened
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before some of you may think it's a
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little conspiracy theory is maybe it is
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but um it it just has been really odd
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the way the market has just stayed
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steady in this 45 degree angle and then
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yesterday there was a point in time
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midafternoon where all of a sudden there
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was a big flush move to the downside uh
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and all of a sudden the market rallied
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back uh right away uh I think I can be
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able to uh to show you that um on the
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hourly chart um yesterday we had boom
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there was that move down just kind of
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sideways boom moved down and then
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immediately bought and continued into
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the 45 degree angle was that the FED
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stopping an S&P buy program to see how
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the market would handle it and saw that
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it was just like nobody else is buying
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the market but them um who knows again
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all speculation here just fod for talk
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but interesting nonethe the way the
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market has rallied and coincidence or
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not coming right after the CEO of Nvidia
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came out on Wednesday saying everything
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looked great all right let's move into
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the crypto world uh Bitcoin uh trying to
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move back to the upside uh we did a
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crypto show on uh uh Hub Financial live
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uh and the talk was about grayscale uh
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you've all seen the advertisements with
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Bitcoin and grayscale and the commentary
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from the uh crypto expert was that
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grayscale has really high fees and
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they're refusing to lower them so people
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are leaving uh grayscale and going to
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other Bitcoin ETFs which means just the
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same way that Equity ETFs work uh if you
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have a lot of redemptions then grayscale
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has to sell Bitcoin in order in order to
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meet the redemptions uh until that can
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get soaked up other ways um and other
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places other ETFs and that's been
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putting some pressure on bitcoin we seem
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to be maybe soaking that up we close
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back above the and I Know It trades 247
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but at least at the print for the close
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back above the 50-day moving average if
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we look at ethereum uh which the one
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we've been concerned about because it's
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a pretty well qualified five wave to the
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downside pattern uh but 22 A2 is holding
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so far uh but to feel better about
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ethereum you got to get back above 2500
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if that can happen then maybe we can
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disqualify this downward 5 wave impulse
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pattern but for now we still have to be
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leery of that until we can see ethereum
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back above that uh level now let talk
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about where the action has been uh in
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gold and silver look at this move the
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past two days in GLD we talked about
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this last week how we've had this odd
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pattern here it's not odd the GLD does
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consolidate and break out a lot but to
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have a symmetrical triangle breakout
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symmetrical triangle breakout ascending
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triangle and now a breakout just boom
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boom boom three in a row uh is pretty
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wild um now we have the point where GLD
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might be a little bit overbought but
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this makes sense at least of all the
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things that aren making sense in the
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market this does you're moving into a
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rate cutting cycle it should put a bid
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under uh gold and silver and boy it has
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uh in GLD the past two days so U I think
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we have more to go to the upside in GLD
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but maybe we need to rest a little bit
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first because we are separated from that
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10day moving average you know the drill
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no security in any time frame gets too
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far away from the 10day moving average
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now if we look at Silver SLV had a
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comment last week uh in the US market
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update where we were talking about uh
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silver lagging and the comment was made
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that yeah silver can catch up rather
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quickly though very uh spot-on comment
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as silver is doing its best it's still
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not quite back up to the levels where
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GLD is but it's trying really hard we
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had this symmetrical triangle here quite
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a vertical breakout from this triangle
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once again SLV just a little bit
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overbought so maybe the metals need to
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rest a bit at the beginning of the week
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and then we'll see what happens from
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there but we're right against this
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little bit of resistance area here just
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above 28 uh almost 28 and a half but not
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quite uh so a little backing and filling
00:16:25
here uh in SLV would be great and if we
00:16:27
can break Above This uh little bit of
00:16:30
resistance here then we're probably
00:16:31
pretty clear to go up to finish this uh
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zigzag pattern all the way up to about
00:16:37
30 and a half on the SLV so we'll see if
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it can continue this movement uh as it
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uh is breaking above that uh resistance
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area and breaking out of that triangle
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that's look at oil uh which has moved uh
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to the downside here uh clearly out of
00:16:54
this now somebody asked a question in
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the US market update last week on how to
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know how far you're going to break out
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of a triangle so I thought I would just
00:17:02
share that with you the way you look for
00:17:04
that is you look where's the low uh and
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where are the highs in the mouth of the
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triangle this is a traditional
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symmetrical triangle sometimes you have
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expanding triangles where it's the
00:17:13
opposite where the points on the left
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and the mouth is on the right but
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basically you measure where's the high
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where's the low and the mouth of the
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triangle which is drawn by those two
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trend lines the lower highs and higher
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lows uh and whatever that price movement
00:17:27
is that's the expected movement once you
00:17:30
break out from the point of the triangle
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so that's a general rule of how far to
00:17:36
expect a triangle to break uh and then
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we know that once a triangle breaks out
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it's often time tested one of the three
00:17:43
ways a triangle can break out is you
00:17:45
break out test the break out and then
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have the big move other times you break
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out the triangle and it just runs with
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no test but this one tested immediately
00:17:54
uh we went all the way down uh to the 67
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A2 uh level a little bit lower than I
00:17:59
thought we were going to go I thought we
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might hold here around 70 71 but we went
00:18:04
a little bit lower uh and now we're
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bouncing back up got back above the
00:18:07
10day moving average on the high of the
00:18:09
day but didn't close above the 10day
00:18:11
moving average so we'll be watching oil
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uh at the beginning of next week as well
00:18:15
to see where things may go from there
00:18:17
let's take a quick look at Natural Gas
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throwing a couple extra in here from
00:18:20
what we have shown uh on the chart on
00:18:23
the beginning because there's lots to
00:18:24
talk about and here we are right back in
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natural gas back to 15 um something to
00:18:29
watch here and this La wve algorithm and
00:18:32
the software is from uh The Hub
00:18:34
organization hubb.com you've heard me
00:18:36
talk about it before if you haven't gone
00:18:38
there go get a copy of this you get free
00:18:40
ellia wave um they also have a
00:18:43
subscription service for AI signals
00:18:45
which have been phenomenally accurate
00:18:47
you can read more about it there but you
00:18:48
can get free Elliot wave and free live
00:18:50
Elliot wave just by going to hub.com and
00:18:53
registering for the software um but it's
00:18:55
no more accurate than showing this chart
00:18:57
where we move in U and G and yet the
00:19:01
algorithm did not label that for purple
00:19:04
which means that it's telling you that
00:19:06
that wave four is done it left it green
00:19:09
which means that's still active so even
00:19:11
as we were moving down looked like we
00:19:12
were about to break out below this wave
00:19:15
three which would have certainly
00:19:16
clarified a wave five to the downside it
00:19:19
continued to say NOP we're not sure this
00:19:22
wave four is done and look what's
00:19:23
happened we've rallied back up and now
00:19:25
we're back up right to where that wave
00:19:27
four is and if we can break above 15
00:19:30
with a little follow through look at
00:19:32
this move we came kind of straight down
00:19:35
uh no real um retracements or
00:19:38
Corrections on the way down if un could
00:19:41
move above 15 with follow through we
00:19:44
could have a big move uh up to at least
00:19:47
20 in un now it's got to do it first but
00:19:49
the potential is there uh and that wave
00:19:52
four could move up to more of an
00:19:54
extension it's only a 30% corrective
00:19:56
move it could correct a bunch much
00:19:59
a bunch higher more from here uh he
00:20:01
tried to say just talking fast because
00:20:03
so much that want to cover here uh and
00:20:05
cover off everything for you appreciate
00:20:07
your time I know time's valuable for
00:20:09
everybody now let's get to some stocks
00:20:11
of interest uh we're going to start with
00:20:14
Tesla uh and uh you guys always ask
00:20:16
about this and uh while we're at Tesla
00:20:19
here quick reminder that every single
00:20:21
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00:20:23
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00:20:40
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00:20:41
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00:20:44
great income strategy uh butterflies
00:20:46
couns things like that then we also have
00:20:48
the volatility strategy which are these
00:20:50
triangles uh you saw one in Uso which we
00:20:53
had in the volatility strategy at a
00:20:55
trader.com and here's another one right
00:20:57
here in Tesla that we've talked about
00:20:59
and it includes the AI infused impulse
00:21:02
strategy which is a directional based
00:21:04
strategy so coming back to Tesla here
00:21:06
there's one of those triangles by the
00:21:08
way to register for the free giveaway
00:21:10
all you have to do is leave a comment
00:21:12
underneath this video so just post a
00:21:14
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giving away one of those worth thousands
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them to come to the sign and subscribe
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you know how the drill works it's
00:21:31
helpful so uh here we have a a potential
00:21:34
breakout here of Tesla uh continuing to
00:21:37
move to the upside so we had this
00:21:40
breakout just very similar to what Uso
00:21:43
did it broke out came back and tested
00:21:45
the breakout and now we're moving higher
00:21:47
uh and U you just you can't ignore this
00:21:50
potential breakout uh and the fact that
00:21:53
we had another triangle back here with
00:21:55
the point at 250 we can kind of kill two
00:21:58
birds with one stone here on Tesla if we
00:22:00
continue this upward move um so we
00:22:02
continue the breakout of this current
00:22:04
triangle and then we go back to the
00:22:06
point of the previous triangle at 250 so
00:22:09
it does seem like there is a case to be
00:22:11
made for Tesla to see 250 uh some of you
00:22:15
suggested uh uh let's look at some
00:22:17
different International markets what a
00:22:19
great suggestion so the idx is Indonesia
00:22:22
I can see why you want to look at it
00:22:24
very strong wave three movement to the
00:22:26
upside I like to look at the DMI when
00:22:28
when you see this and the DMI looks
00:22:30
really solid the adx is not to 40 yet uh
00:22:34
so even though we've had a pretty
00:22:35
significant move here and we're starting
00:22:37
to get separation between the 10 and the
00:22:39
50-day moving average it doesn't look
00:22:41
like the idx is done yet um perhaps when
00:22:45
the adx moves above 40 that would be
00:22:47
more of an indication and then T HD for
00:22:50
Thailand uh even more of a vertical move
00:22:54
here now this one's almost too vertical
00:22:55
for me with this big gap up now we're
00:22:58
doing a good job of consolidating the
00:22:59
move we've headed back to the upside
00:23:01
today once again the DMI very
00:23:04
constructive and not showing that we're
00:23:06
overbought yet it's just the fact that
00:23:09
when we get these vertical moves like
00:23:11
this especially with a gap up in a
00:23:13
vertical move makes me a little bit
00:23:14
nervous so I think you do have to be
00:23:16
wary that it's too far too fast uh but
00:23:20
the the DMI is saying yeah their
00:23:22
strength to the move so you want to see
00:23:23
some good consolidation perhaps there's
00:23:25
still more to go to the upside on thg
00:23:29
THD but something to look at there as
00:23:32
well here's Nvidia I thought we've got
00:23:33
to show Nvidia since people were saying
00:23:35
that the CEO is What turned the market
00:23:38
um I had mentioned before that if we
00:23:40
could see 100 on Nvidia I thought that
00:23:42
would be a great opportunity to buy we
00:23:44
didn't quite make it to 100 but boy we
00:23:47
got awfully close and so far that was a
00:23:49
good opportunity to come in and go long
00:23:52
uh and we didn't take out this wave four
00:23:54
still have a pretty strong wave four and
00:23:57
a good pattern here uh to the upside and
00:23:59
a five-wave uh La wve impulse pattern
00:24:02
higher here now we have to break this
00:24:03
trend line here where we've Set uh a
00:24:06
series of lower highs so we got to get
00:24:08
above this area here I think before you
00:24:11
can feel real comfortable about going
00:24:13
long the easy trade bouncing off 100 has
00:24:16
occurred but we are back above all the
00:24:18
three major moving averages 1030 and 50
00:24:21
a little bit of a dogee there today so
00:24:23
we'll see how that plays out uh on
00:24:25
Monday uh but keep an eye on this I do
00:24:27
think you want to be patient here on
00:24:29
Nvidia if you didn't get the Bounce from
00:24:31
100 let's let it break this trend line
00:24:34
and then after that we've got another
00:24:36
Trend uh of resistance here right at the
00:24:39
previous wave three high so there's a
00:24:41
little bit of uh congestion in the way
00:24:43
for Invidia to continue higher but not
00:24:46
that it can't do it Adobe I thought we
00:24:48
look at that because they came out and
00:24:50
gave uh disappointing guidance and so
00:24:54
big down day today uh on uh Adobe uh but
00:24:58
we didn't take out this wave four yet uh
00:25:01
and we are oversold now based on the
00:25:03
10day moving average so what you'd want
00:25:05
to watch is this 500 level uh if there's
00:25:08
any follow through to the downside on
00:25:10
Adobe uh can it come down and take out
00:25:12
500 as long as it doesn't this could
00:25:15
actually be a buying opportunity uh but
00:25:17
it was the guidance not the earnings
00:25:19
report that caused uh Adobe to have its
00:25:22
uh downward move today notice that the
00:25:24
wave five did move into the tap box so
00:25:26
spot on with the LA wave algorithm here
00:25:29
so far now we just have to wait and see
00:25:31
it could be that we move into a trading
00:25:33
range here between 500 and 575 that kind
00:25:37
of makes sense to me with Adobe moving
00:25:39
forward so some sort of a butterfly iron
00:25:42
Condor something like that would work
00:25:43
out really well I think on Adobe at this
00:25:46
point um didn't show meta on the list
00:25:49
but thought we would come out because a
00:25:51
lot of you have been asking about meta a
00:25:52
lot here since it's in one of those
00:25:54
triangles and trying to break to the
00:25:56
upside I thought I'd throw that in as a
00:25:58
b
00:25:59
uh we got to break Above This level here
00:26:01
of the previous wave three which was the
00:26:02
same as the highs from back in July if
00:26:05
meta can break above that it could be
00:26:07
off and running again and if we continue
00:26:09
this upside breakout we very well could
00:26:12
break above that resistance there uh
00:26:14
just about 540 or so but a little early
00:26:17
to tell but we are above all the major
00:26:19
moving averages so let's see if this
00:26:21
move here continues you can see the
00:26:23
lower end the rules that I gave you on
00:26:25
the triangle at 450 up here it's a big
00:26:28
big mouth of the triangle uh so if it
00:26:31
does fulfill that upward breakout we
00:26:33
will easily clear this wave three high
00:26:35
and start looking for the new wave five
00:26:37
high thanks so much again for viewing
00:26:39
hope you have a great weekend look
00:26:40
forward to talking again soon take care
00:26:55
everybody if you like these recordings
00:26:58
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