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in the Middle East Rebel forces are now
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just outside of Syria's thirdd largest
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city the last government stronghold on
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the road to the capital Damascus
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Margaret Evans brings us up to date on
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the lightning
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offensive the legacy of Syria's alassad
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Dynasty being dragged through the
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streets of hamama the head all that's
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left of a statue of former president
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Haas alassad who son Bashar now faces A
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Renewed Insurgency spreading across the
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land
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land from Hammer the rebel groups who
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last week captured Aleppo are on the
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March South towards homes the next city
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on the road to
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Damascus the Turkish president Reb tab
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erdogan has wished them well saying the
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Syrian president had rejected a
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conversation with him ID hmer I would
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say we hope for this advance to continue
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without any issues he said although he
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cautioned against terrorist elements in
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their midst turkey is home to 4 million
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Syrian refugees displaced during the
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long Civil War and a stable Aleppo could
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allow many to return that's where the
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main Rebel leader has been making
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himself known Abu Muhammad Al jalani is
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an islamist with ties to al-Qaeda in the
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past trying to moderate His Image
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pledging to rebuild Syria
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displaced individuals scattered across
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the world those drowning in the seas and
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those living in tents on the borders of
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other countries what kind of Victory are
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we talking
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about Russian war planes bombed a bridge
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between hamama and Holmes in support of
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Damascus but many analysts are still
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waiting to see what kind of fightback
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the Syrian regime might be capable of
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bringing the level of dysfunction in the
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Syrian regime forces is astounding hio
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vien is with the international crisis
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group in neighboring Lebanon if they
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manage to take hums then I think uh it's
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then think many things that nobody
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thought possible could become possible
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that would cut Damascus off from the
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Syrian Coastline Al Assad's alawite
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minority
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stronghold and there are other key
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developments Syrian Birds taking control
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of a government City in the Eastern
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desert and in the South Rebels claiming
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to control one of the border crossings
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with Jordan that Frontier reportedly now
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closed Margaret Evans CBC News
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Beirut for more on the situation in
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Syria we've reached Joshua Landis the
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director for the center for Middle East
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studies at the University of Oklahoma
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Joshua Landis is good to see you thanks
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for being here today pleasure uh the
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rebels are moving fast there's a report
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from Reuters that Rebels have taken the
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southern city of Dara under a deal with
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the Army to secure the Army's orderly
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withdrawal what does it say about Bashar
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al-assad's ability to hold on if his
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army is negotiating the Handover of
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towns to
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Rebels uh well it looks really bad the
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the Syrian Army doesn't have much fight
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left in it and it has been melting away
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in front of these cities Aleppo Hama
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humps now is um the big Battlefront and
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that is the key city as your journalist
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said uh the main highway from Damascus
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to Tartus the coastal cities which is
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the stronghold of the alawites runs
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right south of of humps whoever owns
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humps is going to be able to cut that
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off and if the rebels take humps they'll
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cut Damascus off and Damascus is an
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overwhelmingly Sunni city as as are the
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various Villages around it and uh that
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it won't be long before that would fall
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if humps is taken we have to see if
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there's any fight left in the Syrian
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Army and that the Battle of humps will
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show that you know these Rebel forces
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they've moved at lightning Pace like
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this is the the territory they've taken
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the areas they've taken but you have
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this islamist Rebel group with ties to
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Al-Qaeda trying to take out a dictator
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with ties to Russia and other Bad actors
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I I mean who are these Rebels that that
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are un potentially forcing out the
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Syrian
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dictator well it's many militias but the
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major militia Isam HTS which is led by
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Abu Muhammad jolani and as your
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commentator said jolani worked for both
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Isis and Al-Qaeda was sent by kaleth
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bagdadi to open a chapter of al-Qaeda in
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Syria and uh he did that with
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extraordinary success he has remade
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himself in the last um number of years
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into a non- Jihadi uh claiming to be a
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nationalist now he's given up and
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suppressed those elements within uh elra
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he who who were hoping to fight
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Europeans and Americans and be an
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internationalist and so he's he's really
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remade himself and has set up a really
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professional not only professional
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military but a professional media outfit
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that has reassured Christians that they
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are not going to chop heads or take it
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or attack them and has been reaching out
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to all sorts of syrians saying we're
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going to take over the country don't
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fight us we will treat you well the big
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question mark is how he will treat the
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alawites and they have been fleeing in
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front of his forces uh to the Coastland
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and that that will be the big battle is
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taking the coastal areas where most of
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the alawites live and they're 12% of the
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Syrian population is this conversion
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from Isis and Al-Qaeda to a Syrian
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nationalist is there evidence that that
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is sincere and real you know because you
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looking at it from a western point of
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view when you see Isis and al-Qaeda in
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the history you get anxious how how
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should we view
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this well there are many syrians who are
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anxious as well and and we just don't
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know you know the Taliban when they
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retook the capital carala I mean the
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capital of Afghanistan they they
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promised that they would not they would
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treat women well that they had learned a
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lot and changed uh and of course they
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forbid women after sixth grade from
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going to school so we
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don't and this group haam looks at the
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Taliban as a uh as a model in many ways
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so it it's unclear how much their spots
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have changed but they are in a big
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Coalition of other syrians and as they
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conquer these major cities there are a
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lot of secular syrians there are a lot
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of Christians there's a lot of aloes
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ismaelis other minorities and they're
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you know Syria is 10% Kurdish as well so
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they're not going to want to be
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led by a Taliban light or uh heavily
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islamist governments but we've seen
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video that not controlled by the
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government or by the the new Rebels come
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out of them toping Christmas trees
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smashing up liquor stores and doing
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other things that islamists do so the
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the
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it's
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unclear what the long-term effects of
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this will be on the Syrian people so
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it's a massive Coalition of different
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militias coming together with a common
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goal of taking out the al-assad regime
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he has been an ally of Vladimir Putin
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and relied on Russia in the past
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Russia's military assets are very
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heavily occupied right now in Ukraine so
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I if Russia can't come to his Aid I mean
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what do we know about the Assad regime's
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ability to hold on to defend itself here
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well you're absolutely right and Israel
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has just destroyed heah largely and as
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well as attacked Iran and it's been
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pounding the Syrian Army for a year at
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least three times a week it's been
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bombing military manufacturing sites uh
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important parts of the military it's
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killed most of the top Iranians in Syria
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in a number of operations so it has
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really weakened the Syrian Army and
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there isn't a lot of fight left in it uh
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the Syrian people are fed up with this
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regime by and large and many were hoping
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for a peace dividend When The War sort
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of petered out in 2000 it never came
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there heavy American sanctions on this
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America owns all the oil and gas so
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that's not coming to the to the um to
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the Syrian government and so Assad has
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not been able to rebuild he hasn't been
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been able to bring back electricity many
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of the schools repair so it's a bleak
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future with Assad and people don't want
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to fight and die for this government
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we'll have to see what the new one
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brings and whether America will lift
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those sanctions return oil and gas to
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the Damascus or keep it for the Kurds uh
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these are going to be big questions and
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the government if the Rebels win they're
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going to look to the International
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Community to lift those sanctions and to
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renew relations and help Syria rebuild
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okay I I literally have 60 seconds left
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so maybe it's unfair for me to ask you
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this question but we see President ERD a
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NATO Ally in Turkey cheering on the
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rebels how do you expect the West to
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respond to this because there is a lot
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of uncertainty and difficulty on either
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side of
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it well I think they'll give him some
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grace period but uh it'll be there'll be
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tremendous pressure to lift the
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sanctions and to let them rebuild and to
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lift this terrorist designation and
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jolani has just jettison today he has
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changed his name back to his childhood
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name he's given up this n dear jolani
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because
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it sounds El it sounds shih yes so he's
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changing his name he's doing everything
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he can and there going to be a lot of
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countries that are going to try to help
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him get back in the good graces of the
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West uh fascinating stuff on on a fast
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moving story Joshua Landis the director
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for the C Center for Middle East studies
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at the University of Oklahoma it's good
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to meet you sir thank you for being here
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today pleasure being with you David
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