What is the demographic transition model?

It is a model that describes the changes in a country's population from high birth and death rates to low rates as it industrializes.

What are the five stages of the demographic transition model?

Stage 1: High birth and death rates. Stage 2: Death rates decline. Stage 3: Birth rates decline. Stage 4: Low birth and death rates. Stage 5: Speculation about future changes.

Why do countries currently have a positive growth rate?

Positive growth rates are due to economic benefits, religious influences promoting large families, and cultural values.

What influences population growth?

Economic factors, religious beliefs, cultural traditions, and government incentives all influence population growth.

What might happen in Stage 5 of the demographic transition model?

Stage 5 is speculative, with possibilities including population stabilization, decrease due to resource shortages, or increase due to high living standards.

Why are birth rates low in Stage 4?

Low birth rates in Stage 4 are due to contraception, women in the workforce, and focus on careers.

How do birth and death rates affect population growth?

High birth rates increase population, while high death rates decrease it. Low rates stabilize the population.

What is the significance of industrialization in demographic transition?

Industrialization leads to better healthcare, sanitation, and education, thus lowering death rates and later birth rates.

Demographic transition | Society and Culture | MCAT | Khan Academy

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6P2bsPWCRvM

Résumé

TLDRThe demographic transition model outlines the progression of a country's population growth as it evolves from a pre-industrial to an industrial economy. This transition occurs in five stages: Stage 1 is characterized by high birth and death rates, keeping the population stable. In Stage 2, death rates fall due to improvements in health and sanitation, leading to population growth, while birth rates remain high. Stage 3 sees a decline in birth rates as social norms change and contraception becomes available, while the population still grows but at a slower rate. By Stage 4, both birth and death rates stabilize at low levels, balancing the population size, often seen in industrialized nations like the USA and Australia. Stage 5 is speculative, suggesting potential future trends such as population stabilization, decrease, or even renewed growth. Factors affecting these stages include economic benefits, religious influences, cultural traditions, government policies, and access to education and health care. The future of global population dynamics remains uncertain, with possibilities like resource shortages or advancements affecting growth.

A retenir

📊 Demographic transition explains population changes with industrialization.
🚸 Stage 1: High birth and death rates keep population stable.
💉 Stage 2: Death rates drop due to health improvements, population rises.
👶 Stage 3: Birth rates decline, population grows slower.
🌍 Stage 4: Low birth and death rates stabilize population.
🤔 Stage 5: Speculative, with possible stabilization or decrease.
💪 Economic, religious, and cultural factors influence population growth.
👩‍🎓 Access to education and health care lowers birth rates.
🏢 Industrialization boosts health care, reducing death rates.
🔮 Future population trends are uncertain.

Chronologie

00:00:00 - 00:07:45
The concept of demographic transition is introduced as a model that predicts changes in a country's population, eventually leading to stabilization when both birth and death rates become low, often occurring in industrialized nations. Growth rate is explained as the measure of population change, illustrated using a hypothetical country, 'Zed', where positive growth is shown through more births and immigration than deaths and emigration. Reasons for positive growth rates, including economic, religious, and cultural influences, are discussed. The demographic transition model has five stages, beginning with high birth and death rates due to limited contraception and economic benefits of a larger workforce, and transitioning to stages where improvements in health, sanitation, and food availability lead to lower death rates and continued population growth.

Carte mentale

Questions fréquemment posées

What is the demographic transition model?
It is a model that describes the changes in a country's population from high birth and death rates to low rates as it industrializes.
What are the five stages of the demographic transition model?
Stage 1: High birth and death rates. Stage 2: Death rates decline. Stage 3: Birth rates decline. Stage 4: Low birth and death rates. Stage 5: Speculation about future changes.
Why do countries currently have a positive growth rate?
Positive growth rates are due to economic benefits, religious influences promoting large families, and cultural values.
What influences population growth?
Economic factors, religious beliefs, cultural traditions, and government incentives all influence population growth.
What might happen in Stage 5 of the demographic transition model?
Stage 5 is speculative, with possibilities including population stabilization, decrease due to resource shortages, or increase due to high living standards.
Why are birth rates low in Stage 4?
Low birth rates in Stage 4 are due to contraception, women in the workforce, and focus on careers.
How do birth and death rates affect population growth?
High birth rates increase population, while high death rates decrease it. Low rates stabilize the population.
What is the significance of industrialization in demographic transition?
Industrialization leads to better healthcare, sanitation, and education, thus lowering death rates and later birth rates.

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00:00:02
Voiceover: Demographic transition is a model that
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changes in a country's population.
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It states that the population will eventually stop
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growing when the country transitions from high
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birth rates and high death rates to low birth rates
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and death rates, stabilizing the population.
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This stabilization often occurs in industrialized
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countries, because less developed countries tend
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to rely on and follow the more developed countries
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for their advancements.
00:00:26
Right now, most countries have a positive growth
00:00:29
rate, which means their population keeps getting
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bigger.
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First, let's pin down what the growth rate is.
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Growth rate measures how much the population
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of a country grows or shrinks over some time period.
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For example, let's take a look at this country.
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I'm going to call it "Zed".
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Zed, here, had one million people at the beginning
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of the year.
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If we want to know the growth rate of the population
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of Zed for the year, we count how many people were
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added to the population and how many people were
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removed.
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The number of people added includes the number
00:00:59
of births and the number of people who immigrated
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into the country during that year.
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Let's say 20,000 babies were born this year and
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50,000 people moved to Zed from other countries.
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Then you have to subtract from this number how
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many people were removed from the population,
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so the number of deaths and the number of people
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who emigrated from the country during that year.
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Let's say, during the year, 15,000 people died and
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5000 people moved out of Zed.
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From here, it's pretty easy to figure out the
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population of Zed at the end of the year.
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Started with one million, add 20,000 births and
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50,000 immigrants and subtract 15,000 deaths and
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5000 emigrants, which gives us 1,050,000 people
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at the end of the year.
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If we want the growth rate over this year, all you
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need to do is take that total current population,
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subtract the total number of people in the country
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at the beginning of the year, and then divide by that
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number again.
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Multiply it by 100 and you turn it into a percentage.
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Now you have your growth rate.
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So now you can see why, when we say there's a
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positive growth rate, that means that the population
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is now bigger than the population in the past.
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But why do most countries currently have a
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positive growth rate?
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There are economic benefits, because children can
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work to help support the family.
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Sometimes, the government even provides incentives
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to families for each child, like in Japan, where birth
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rates are very low.
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Religion also influences population growth, because
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it often promotes large families, which increase the
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number of people in their faith and encourages
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stronger community.
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Some religions will even forbid the use of
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contraceptives by their followers, pretty much
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ensuring large families.
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And there are cultural influences that promote
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large families, too.
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Having children means that a person is passing
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down their own family's traits and values.
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There's a kind of prestige that goes along with
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having children.
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Okay, now let's dive into the demographic transition
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model.
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There are five stages to the demographic
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transition model.
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In Stage 1, a country has high birth rates, often due
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to limited birth control and the economic benefit
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of having more people to work.
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They also have high death rates, due to poor
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nutrition or high rates of disease.
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It is believed that most countries were at Stage 1
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until the 18th Century, when death rates in western
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Europe began to fall.
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You can see this type of population modeled by a
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high stationary population pyramid, with a high
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birth rate.
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This pyramid shows the number of people alive in a
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population, depending on age and gender.
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As you can see, the Stage 1 stationary population has
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many births, creating a large young population, as
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well as many deaths, creating a small older
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population and keeping the over all population
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fairly stable.
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The second stage is seen in the beginnings of the
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developing country.
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The population begins to rise as death rates drop,
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because of improvements in health and sanitation
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and the availability of food.
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This trend can be seen in western Europe in the
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19th Century, after the Industrial Revolution.
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The birth rates are about the same as they were in
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Stage 1, though, so the over all population begins
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to grow.
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This is an early expanding population pyramid.
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You have high birth rates still, see, lots of young people,
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but the death rate is declining, so you have more
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older people, making this nice pyramid shape.
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In Stage 3, the death rates continue to drop, but
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at the same time, birth rates also begin to fall
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because of access to contraception and a changing
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social trend toward smaller families.
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The society has better health care and is becoming
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more industrialized by this point, meaning there are
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fewer childhood deaths and also the kids don't need
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to work, or aren't allowed to work by law any more.
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Having lots of children isn't economically beneficial
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any more, as the kids are sent to school, rather than
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working to support the family.
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Many countries in South America and the Middle East
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have such declining birth rates.
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This population is still expanding, but at a slower
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rate.
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You can see in this late expanding population pyramid,
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that, as birth rates decline, there are fewer young
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people and, with the already-declining death rates,
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people are living longer lives.
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The population finally stabilizes in Stage 4 of
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the demographic transition model, where both
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birth rates and death rates are low and balance each
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other out.
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By this point, the population is rather large, because
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it had been growing up until this point.
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The low birth rates are due to a combination of
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improvements in contraception as well as the high
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percentage of women in the workforce and the fact
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that many couples choose to focus on careers over
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having children.
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Countries like the United States or Australia are in
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Stage 4 right now.
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The population can be modeled by a low stationary
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pyramid, with low birth rates and low death rates,
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as well as a longer life expectancy.
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The fifth and final stage is only a speculation.
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There are few theories as to what happens next.
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Some believe that the world population will be
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forced to stabilize as the Malthusian Theorem
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suggests.
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Perhaps we will run out of resources, and there will
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be a global food shortage.
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Already, of the more than seven billion people on our
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planet, there are about one billion world-wide who
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suffer from hunger and malnutrition.
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The world population continues to increase but,
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perhaps, we won't be able to maintain the natural
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resources at the rate we are going for how many
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people live on this planet, which Malthusians believe
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will lead to a major public health disaster and
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force the population to remain stable.
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Or, perhaps, the population will begin to decrease
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after it stabilizes, continuing the trend of decreasing
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birth rates until it drops below the death rate.
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With more people dying than being born, there
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would be a negative growth rate.
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This results in a constrictive population pyramid,
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where there are fewer young people than old.
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Perhaps this will be because of a rise in individualism
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or, perhaps, as the anti-Malthusian Theorem states,
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this will be because couples only want to have one
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child or they have children later in life.
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Some evidence shows that a better standard of
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living promotes smaller families, as children become
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an economic burden, rather than a source of
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financial support.
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Industrialized nations often have better education
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and access to health care, which contribute to more
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reproductive choices.
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Some governments, like in China, are even adopting
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policies that encourage small families to slow their
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population growth and save resources.
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Or, on the other hand, perhaps the population will
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begin to grow again after the stabilization of the
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fourth stage.
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Some evidence shows that high standards of living
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actually promote fertility and a higher birth rate.
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There's only one real way for us to find out what
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will happen next and we'll have to wait it out
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and see where the world is in a century or two.
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So, I'll see you there, right?
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To sum it up, demographic transition is a shift from
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high birth and death rates to low birth and death
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rates as a country becomes industrialized, but what
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will happen after that is impossible to tell.
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Will the population stabilize?
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Will it decrease, will increase?
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Will we move off-planet and colonize a world
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around a distant star?
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We could only guess for now.