Crypto Holders Is It Over?

00:41:01
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCeOegXqoEA

概要

TLDRThe video covers the tumultuous state of cryptocurrency markets, highlighting a recent significant drop of $350 billion and the impact of economic conditions including Trump's tariffs. The volatility is reminiscent of the COVID-19 crash, raising fears about the market's viability. The sentiment among investors is largely negative, with many cryptocurrencies experiencing strong downtrends. The presenter discusses the potential for recovery if certain favorable policies are enacted, while cautioning against panic selling and suggesting a strategic approach to investing during this uncertain time.

収穫

  • 📉 Total crypto market down $350 billion in one day.
  • 🌀 Markets are experiencing extreme volatility and fear.
  • 🔍 Economic factors, including tariffs, are affecting crypto prices.
  • 🔮 Future market recovery may depend on Federal Reserve decisions.
  • 📊 Most cryptocurrencies are in strong downtrends.
  • ⚖️ Avoid panic selling; instead, consider strategic positions.
  • 🌐 Tariff news is contributing to market instability.
  • 🚀 Potential relief rallies could happen, but remain cautious.

タイムライン

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    The crypto market is facing unprecedented volatility, with a significant drop of $350 billion occurring shortly after a massive gain. The overall sentiment reflects a chaotic atmosphere as traditional equities react negatively to U.S. tariffs, raising fears of economic collapse.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:10:00

    Market analysts are debating the current state of the market, questioning if it's the most bearish bull market or the most bullish bear market. Despite some positive developments in the crypto sector, such as Blackrock's positive interest, the overall trend remains negative as much of the focus shifts towards geopolitical risks.

  • 00:10:00 - 00:15:00

    Cryptocurrency assets are currently in a sharp downtrend, with attempts at breakouts consistently failing. Discussions point towards potential government measures, such as a removal of capital gains tax on crypto, which could rejuvenate market interest. However, no significant recovery has been noted yet, emphasizing the grim atmosphere.

  • 00:15:00 - 00:20:00

    The volatility in the traditional markets, particularly due to tariff reactions, could lead to future upticks if managed correctly. There is hope that the M2 money supply may support market recovery around March, yet uncertainty prevails regarding immediate recoveries or bounce-backs in the crypto space.

  • 00:20:00 - 00:25:00

    All cryptos are facing challenges with Ethereum being particularly disappointing as it struggles to stay above crucial support levels. Calls for market participants considering taking profits during relief rallies suggest cautious trading strategies in a highly unpredictable environment.

  • 00:25:00 - 00:30:00

    Recent volatility underscores the generally bearish trends across the crypto landscape, with many assets failing to reclaim moving averages. Traders are recommended to maintain caution, particularly amidst ongoing manipulation and high-risk selling conditions activated by macroeconomic fears.

  • 00:30:00 - 00:35:00

    Future market trends suggest potential long-term gains despite current pain. Strategies reflect a focus on broad economic recovery signs, but environmental politics and economic stability remain vital themes influencing market sentiment moving forward.

  • 00:35:00 - 00:41:01

    With ongoing discussions about potential tariff impacts on traditional markets and frozen legislative processes for changes in cryptocurrency regulations, speculation continues about how and when altcoins will recover relative to Bitcoin amidst these macro dynamics.

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ビデオQ&A

  • How much did the crypto market decrease recently?

    The total crypto market experienced a decrease of $350 billion in just 24 hours.

  • What economic factors are currently influencing the crypto markets?

    Factors include Trump’s tariffs, volatility in the stock markets, and upcoming Federal Reserve meetings.

  • Is there hope for a market recovery soon?

    Some analysts believe there could be a turnaround around the end of March, depending on Federal Reserve news.

  • Should cryptocurrency holders panic sell now?

    While many are experiencing losses, it's advised to avoid panic selling; consider waiting for relief rallies.

  • What is the sentiment in cryptocurrency markets right now?

    The sentiment is largely bearish, with strong downtrends across most cryptocurrencies.

  • What indicators suggest a potential market recovery?

    Breakouts above significant moving averages like the 20-day and 200-day EMA could indicate recovery.

  • What should traders do in this market condition?

    Traders are advised to remain cautious, consider dollar-cost averaging, and not to chase the market.

  • What impact do tariffs have on the current market?

    Tariffs are contributing to market fears, affecting stock and crypto prices negatively.

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  • 00:00:05
    guys crypto holders is it over well
  • 00:00:08
    there's some crazy [ __ ] going on in the
  • 00:00:09
    markets we have to talk about it charts
  • 00:00:11
    looking absolutely horrific right now
  • 00:00:14
    we're going to talk about those see if
  • 00:00:16
    there's any hope not a lot in the charts
  • 00:00:19
    unfortunately we're going be talking
  • 00:00:20
    about all that stuff for you guys
  • 00:00:22
    answering your question second half the
  • 00:00:23
    stream so let's go ahead and get
  • 00:00:24
    straight into this who's tired of
  • 00:00:27
    winning are you ready to win no no more
  • 00:00:30
    winnings sir
  • 00:00:32
    no
  • 00:00:33
    a
  • 00:00:35
    okay block news uh sharing total crypto
  • 00:00:38
    Market has experienced the second worst
  • 00:00:39
    decrease ever just one day after its
  • 00:00:42
    best increase ever plummeting $350
  • 00:00:45
    billion in 24 hours
  • 00:00:48
    brutal absolutely brutal man wild wild
  • 00:00:52
    markets Sun pack it up I just lost the
  • 00:00:54
    house holy crap definitely a brutal day
  • 00:00:58
    in the markets right now of course you
  • 00:00:59
    don't need me to tell that the vix the
  • 00:01:01
    volatility index has just spiked to 69
  • 00:01:03
    the highest since 2020 covid market
  • 00:01:06
    crash absolute Insanity in the stock
  • 00:01:08
    markets right now they are
  • 00:01:11
    hating hating the uh Trump tariff news
  • 00:01:16
    Okay absolutely not fans of it at
  • 00:01:19
    all Travis cing saying is this the most
  • 00:01:22
    bearish bull market imaginable or the
  • 00:01:23
    most bullish bare Market imaginable it's
  • 00:01:26
    true it's true the um the sentiment
  • 00:01:29
    right now the market I mean just
  • 00:01:31
    goodness gracious look I uh I know that
  • 00:01:35
    the stock markets have been taking a bit
  • 00:01:36
    of a hit recently but holy
  • 00:01:40
    [ __ ] think about all the crazy news
  • 00:01:42
    that's happening last week and I did a
  • 00:01:43
    news summary video for you guys
  • 00:01:44
    yesterday kind of looking at some of the
  • 00:01:45
    big stories of happening you got Citadel
  • 00:01:47
    coming you got Black Rock actually
  • 00:01:48
    adding it to their model portfolios you
  • 00:01:51
    got the Strategic crypto Reserve you
  • 00:01:53
    have no taxes on us cryptocoin gains and
  • 00:01:56
    all this crazy stuff happened man
  • 00:02:02
    crazy stuff crazy stuff big news Market
  • 00:02:05
    doesn't give a [ __ ] right now because
  • 00:02:07
    Equity markets are going risk off Equity
  • 00:02:09
    markets are freaking out
  • 00:02:13
    essentially it's like Trump is carrying
  • 00:02:16
    out a controlled implosion of the US
  • 00:02:18
    markets and economy in order to force
  • 00:02:21
    the FED to cut rates to bring long-term
  • 00:02:24
    bond yields down to potentially pull off
  • 00:02:27
    the mara Lago Accord all that kind of
  • 00:02:28
    stuff big things are happening and I
  • 00:02:32
    think
  • 00:02:34
    the phrase that we all have to start
  • 00:02:36
    getting familiar with short-term pain
  • 00:02:37
    for long-term gain so markets could
  • 00:02:40
    remain relatively irrational for some
  • 00:02:44
    months to come hopefully reverse much
  • 00:02:47
    sooner than that Global M2 Supply would
  • 00:02:49
    indicate that sometime around the end of
  • 00:02:51
    March we could see markets starting move
  • 00:02:53
    up especially if we get some kind of
  • 00:02:55
    positive news from the Federal Reserve
  • 00:02:56
    at their meeting in two weeks survive
  • 00:02:58
    until then guys
  • 00:03:01
    okay right now all crypto currency
  • 00:03:05
    assets are in very strong downtrends
  • 00:03:07
    we've been talking about the downtrend
  • 00:03:09
    that cryptocoins have been in for two
  • 00:03:11
    months now right
  • 00:03:14
    unfortunately we haven't seen any really
  • 00:03:17
    uh strong breakouts yet we've had so
  • 00:03:20
    many false breakout attempts and
  • 00:03:23
    everything has gets smashed back down
  • 00:03:25
    it's been brutal absolutely brutal
  • 00:03:26
    Market
  • 00:03:27
    recently if of course Trump announces at
  • 00:03:30
    the crypto Summit this weekend or David
  • 00:03:31
    Sachs announces at the crypto Summit
  • 00:03:33
    this weekend uh that they're going to be
  • 00:03:34
    removing capital gains tax on crypto
  • 00:03:36
    coins potentially maybe just us crypto
  • 00:03:38
    coins which be like you know Su Aptos
  • 00:03:41
    xrp cardano stuff like that then hey
  • 00:03:44
    joke joke on them no one's gonna have
  • 00:03:46
    any gains left by the time it comes to
  • 00:03:48
    sell holy crap Bitcoin therapist saying
  • 00:03:50
    if Trump announces zero capital gains
  • 00:03:53
    tax on US based crypto assets there'll
  • 00:03:54
    be a surge of capital pouring back into
  • 00:03:56
    the market strap the F in and put your
  • 00:03:58
    jock strap on could dig that could dig
  • 00:04:01
    that I don't know to what extent um the
  • 00:04:05
    Market's going to get wildly excited
  • 00:04:07
    about no capital gains tax on crypto
  • 00:04:09
    especially if it's like you know you
  • 00:04:11
    have to hold for a year for example to
  • 00:04:14
    get no capital gains tax it's you know
  • 00:04:16
    it's nice but it's probably not a
  • 00:04:18
    game-changing moment especially when
  • 00:04:20
    right now no good news moves the markets
  • 00:04:24
    okay Kyle here is saying uh of course
  • 00:04:27
    the Tariff this is just some of the
  • 00:04:29
    Tariff news Trump's 25% tariffs on
  • 00:04:30
    Canada and Mexico and 20% on China are
  • 00:04:33
    now officially live China hits back with
  • 00:04:35
    15% tariffs Canada fires back with 25%
  • 00:04:38
    tariffs Mexico said to announce its
  • 00:04:39
    response on Tuesday if markets PR from
  • 00:04:42
    here it's classic short the rumor by the
  • 00:04:45
    news kind of stuff uh don't get caught
  • 00:04:47
    on the wrong side High L is not your
  • 00:04:49
    friend right now amen to that guys look
  • 00:04:51
    I've um so far largely been
  • 00:04:54
    um uh uh flat the last few days I didn't
  • 00:04:58
    rush to buy anything uh yesterday and
  • 00:05:00
    the markets were pumping and I haven't
  • 00:05:01
    really uh rushed to buy anything as
  • 00:05:04
    markets have been dumping you know I
  • 00:05:05
    when I sold my eth at the start of
  • 00:05:07
    February should have just stayed out
  • 00:05:09
    came back in at 2750 and now it's down
  • 00:05:12
    another 25% or something since that
  • 00:05:17
    moment
  • 00:05:19
    anyway gosh darn it eth the worst asset
  • 00:05:22
    of the cycle holy crap what a what a
  • 00:05:25
    what a crap show ethereum metallic man
  • 00:05:27
    you got to get back on board here and
  • 00:05:29
    get get bull poting go man anyway um
  • 00:05:32
    where are we at here I want to
  • 00:05:34
    see uh can you recommend a psychiatrist
  • 00:05:37
    oh boy I know it feels like that right
  • 00:05:40
    now I feel like that the Tariff news
  • 00:05:43
    looks like it gave the stock market a
  • 00:05:45
    bottom I expect a nice size Bounce from
  • 00:05:47
    here I was actually thinking about this
  • 00:05:48
    H Shahed and by the way
  • 00:05:51
    um not sure if Muslim or not but if you
  • 00:05:53
    are Ramadan Mubarak Ramadan cre bro
  • 00:05:56
    anyway besides the point um
  • 00:06:00
    what's interesting is that I wonder if
  • 00:06:04
    all all that massive tariff news will it
  • 00:06:06
    be digested today by the market and we
  • 00:06:08
    see a slight bounce in the markets or is
  • 00:06:10
    it going to be the opposite and all that
  • 00:06:11
    tariff news came late into the markets
  • 00:06:13
    yesterday and we're going to wake up
  • 00:06:14
    today and just puke horrifically on US
  • 00:06:17
    market
  • 00:06:18
    open place your bets folks place your
  • 00:06:21
    bets place your bets come on we're gonna
  • 00:06:22
    spin the
  • 00:06:24
    wheel holy [ __ ] Tom Lee says Market's
  • 00:06:27
    going to bottom this week let's see
  • 00:06:29
    let's let's see this tariff news I mean
  • 00:06:32
    it's been the most telegraphed tariffs
  • 00:06:34
    ever you got to keep that in mind
  • 00:06:35
    literally Trump said he was going to do
  • 00:06:36
    that then he did it and then the market
  • 00:06:39
    loses their minds when he actually does
  • 00:06:40
    it I know it's like a wild thing a
  • 00:06:42
    politician actually did something he
  • 00:06:43
    said he was gonna do uh Lark we went
  • 00:06:44
    back to Goblin Town I know Richard
  • 00:06:46
    Goblin Town sucks goblins suck man they
  • 00:06:49
    drink all your beer and take your
  • 00:06:50
    girlfriend and [ __ ] and don't put gas in
  • 00:06:52
    their back back in your car after they
  • 00:06:54
    take it out for a ride I mean who the
  • 00:06:55
    heck likes those guys anyway
  • 00:07:00
    uh lar I've um I've given up too much
  • 00:07:03
    manipulation from Trump Camp what do you
  • 00:07:05
    think I'm not giving
  • 00:07:06
    up nope absolutely not
  • 00:07:10
    look
  • 00:07:12
    this this two shall pass I know it's
  • 00:07:14
    [ __ ] crazy right now guys I'm
  • 00:07:16
    watching the charts too it's been nuts
  • 00:07:17
    and I did not take enough money off the
  • 00:07:19
    table obviously I took some money a few
  • 00:07:22
    things and if we go to Zero from here I
  • 00:07:24
    guess I'll be fine but H you know not
  • 00:07:27
    you know multi- intergenerational wealth
  • 00:07:29
    i' had been hoping for for the bull
  • 00:07:30
    market cycle so I still think the best
  • 00:07:32
    days as Market cycle are ahead of it
  • 00:07:34
    maybe that's just me coping but I guess
  • 00:07:35
    we'll find out as we uh play out the
  • 00:07:37
    next few months here but I certainly
  • 00:07:38
    think over the
  • 00:07:39
    next let's say few weeks to few months
  • 00:07:44
    we should expect a lot of uh headline
  • 00:07:47
    risk a lot of volatility a lot of
  • 00:07:49
    bounces and until we see some some
  • 00:07:51
    pretty solid like reclaims of like
  • 00:07:53
    20-day and 50-day EMAs on the charts
  • 00:07:55
    like all bets are off right until then
  • 00:07:58
    we are just strong down trending without
  • 00:08:01
    a lot of shortterm Hope in sight until
  • 00:08:04
    some of this stuff starts turn around
  • 00:08:05
    and maybe we get a a big deal between
  • 00:08:07
    Canada in the USA or China in the USA
  • 00:08:10
    and the war in Ukraine ends and well
  • 00:08:12
    looks like opec's goingon to be print um
  • 00:08:14
    printing a bunch of oil pumping out a
  • 00:08:15
    bunch of extra oil that's going to help
  • 00:08:16
    with oil prices helping inflation stay
  • 00:08:18
    down a little bit maybe we do a good CPI
  • 00:08:20
    print this month with inflation coming
  • 00:08:22
    back down maybe the FED comes out and
  • 00:08:23
    says maybe we're going to do a rate cut
  • 00:08:25
    stuff like that let's see you know
  • 00:08:28
    there's a lot of fear in the market
  • 00:08:29
    right now as we said the other day it's
  • 00:08:31
    the most afraid the market has ever been
  • 00:08:34
    after a 3% correction in equities and I
  • 00:08:37
    know cryptos LED equities by a lot down
  • 00:08:40
    right we pump but we pump massively when
  • 00:08:42
    equities go up with a beta of you know
  • 00:08:45
    two or three times for Bitcoin I guess
  • 00:08:47
    zero for eth because eth is cursed
  • 00:08:50
    salana having a high beta to the stock
  • 00:08:52
    market and stuff like that as well
  • 00:08:54
    anyway let's continue uh M2 money yes I
  • 00:08:57
    know I know I know
  • 00:08:59
    [Laughter]
  • 00:09:01
    M2 money supply is going up guys and
  • 00:09:05
    that is probably going to start hitting
  • 00:09:07
    the markets in late March sometime in
  • 00:09:10
    April so that would be the big signal to
  • 00:09:12
    watch out for and if markets fail to
  • 00:09:14
    react to that I mean geeez Louise anyway
  • 00:09:18
    continuing
  • 00:09:20
    um uh Benjamin Cohen here is saying
  • 00:09:23
    bring up an interesting parallel when
  • 00:09:24
    Reagan took office in 1981 there was
  • 00:09:26
    shortterm pain through 1982 is they got
  • 00:09:28
    inflation under control here you can see
  • 00:09:31
    but uh then it led to a massive economic
  • 00:09:33
    expansion that lasted for
  • 00:09:35
    decades is this what Trump is trying to
  • 00:09:37
    pull
  • 00:09:37
    off maybe hey by the way guys if you are
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    want to trade all the top coins with no
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    kyc no VPN okay so price of Bitcoin
  • 00:10:18
    let's talk about
  • 00:10:21
    it it's gonna get get some water here a
  • 00:10:24
    the Thirsty guys we're going to front
  • 00:10:26
    run the water today
  • 00:10:38
    so let's have a look here yesterday's
  • 00:10:40
    chart was absolute Insanity now what I
  • 00:10:42
    was saying yesterday guys is we're
  • 00:10:44
    seeing the price of Bitcoin coming here
  • 00:10:46
    into an area of price resistance now it
  • 00:10:49
    blasted through the first one and as
  • 00:10:50
    I've been saying for a few
  • 00:10:52
    days um that you need to watch out for a
  • 00:10:55
    price rejection at sort of 90k Zone as a
  • 00:10:58
    bearish retest
  • 00:11:00
    up to 95k potential bearish retest
  • 00:11:02
    really only confirming a massive Trend
  • 00:11:04
    reversal over
  • 00:11:06
    $98,000 which of course we didn't get
  • 00:11:08
    now I did not expect that to be the I
  • 00:11:11
    mean goodness gracious look at that red
  • 00:11:13
    candle man that's a trend reversal I
  • 00:11:14
    mean holy
  • 00:11:15
    [ __ ] what is going on with these markets
  • 00:11:18
    man that is some wild the price
  • 00:11:20
    volatility for the last two weeks is
  • 00:11:22
    enough to drive anybody absolutely crazy
  • 00:11:24
    okay so if you're still here you're
  • 00:11:26
    still surviving just pat yourself on the
  • 00:11:28
    back man give yourself a hug CU this
  • 00:11:30
    some crazy [ __ ] that's going on recently
  • 00:11:31
    in the markets okay so just FYI all
  • 00:11:34
    right now look we will have more relief
  • 00:11:37
    ralles that was not the last relief
  • 00:11:38
    rally that we have if you are struggling
  • 00:11:41
    right now if you're having a really hard
  • 00:11:42
    time right now and you're absolutely
  • 00:11:44
    losing your mind over what's going on in
  • 00:11:46
    the cryptocurrency markets right
  • 00:11:48
    now next relief rally consider taking
  • 00:11:50
    some money off the table erase whatever
  • 00:11:52
    all-time high your portfolio had next
  • 00:11:55
    time we get a decent relief rally
  • 00:11:57
    consider taking a few bucks off the
  • 00:11:58
    table you don't have to to sell all your
  • 00:11:59
    I'm not saying to sell your coins you
  • 00:12:00
    guys what the hell you want to do with
  • 00:12:01
    your coins but next time there's a
  • 00:12:03
    decent relief rally if you're too
  • 00:12:05
    stressed out you're too deeply invested
  • 00:12:08
    you can take a few bucks off the table
  • 00:12:10
    on the next relief rally okay that's
  • 00:12:12
    you're allowed to do that I'm not saying
  • 00:12:13
    it's the best course of action for
  • 00:12:14
    everybody here or whatever but um but
  • 00:12:18
    anyway uh DW did just I did not say I
  • 00:12:21
    sold my ethereum although I've been
  • 00:12:22
    thinking about selling my ethereum so
  • 00:12:24
    just to make that clear there DW um and
  • 00:12:27
    ironically it's not totally about the
  • 00:12:29
    price I've been talking about selling my
  • 00:12:30
    ethereum for months now and obviously uh
  • 00:12:33
    I like I said I sold my eth um at the
  • 00:12:36
    start of February at $3,000 before we
  • 00:12:38
    plunged down to 2100 bucks I rebot at
  • 00:12:39
    2750 thought maybe the worst is over
  • 00:12:41
    nope worst was not over spoiler alert L
  • 00:12:44
    the worst was not over gez Louise should
  • 00:12:46
    have just kept it all in cash man just
  • 00:12:48
    chilled kept in cash and chilled
  • 00:12:50
    anyway
  • 00:12:52
    continuing that's crazy this is crazy
  • 00:12:55
    man this is wild volatility right now on
  • 00:12:56
    the charts okay guys so just FYI uh
  • 00:12:59
    Bitcoin by the way looking better than
  • 00:13:01
    most coins right now currently sitting
  • 00:13:03
    around the 200 day EMA but that's the
  • 00:13:04
    bull bear line and that's it's in the
  • 00:13:06
    bare zone right now straight up no other
  • 00:13:08
    explanation for Price trading below the
  • 00:13:10
    uh 200 day EMA unless we bounce back out
  • 00:13:13
    of their ASAP no bueno folks okay we
  • 00:13:18
    want to see price trading above the 200
  • 00:13:19
    day EMA ideally above the 20-day EMA as
  • 00:13:22
    well which is of course getting closer
  • 00:13:24
    to the 200 day so we might get some
  • 00:13:25
    decent relief rallies where we trade
  • 00:13:27
    above the 20-day but still under the 200
  • 00:13:29
    day if of course prices get worse in the
  • 00:13:31
    coming days and weeks so let's see how
  • 00:13:33
    that plays out so until we get back over
  • 00:13:35
    98k until we break this downtrend line
  • 00:13:37
    until at least we get back over the
  • 00:13:38
    20-day EMA not much to we get excited
  • 00:13:40
    about in terms of trying to trade the
  • 00:13:42
    breakout or anything like that okay uh
  • 00:13:44
    yes don't trade take some time off we'll
  • 00:13:46
    be okay absolutely man a lot of people
  • 00:13:48
    out here just blowing themselves up
  • 00:13:50
    right now trying to Revenge trade trying
  • 00:13:52
    to make it all back in one trade taking
  • 00:13:54
    on too much damn risk all that kind of
  • 00:13:56
    stuff man guys you don't need to do it
  • 00:13:57
    again I've been largely flat the past
  • 00:13:59
    few days I haven't been buying haven't
  • 00:14:00
    really been selling but I still might
  • 00:14:01
    sell my eth man I I don't know if it
  • 00:14:03
    goes under 2K just like ah just the most
  • 00:14:07
    disappointing damn asset that you can
  • 00:14:10
    imagine like I've been holding this
  • 00:14:11
    position for years it's like 8X profits
  • 00:14:12
    right now right so it' be fine it's not
  • 00:14:14
    like it' be the worst thing ever just
  • 00:14:15
    reallocate that money back into other
  • 00:14:17
    altcoins over the next couple months
  • 00:14:19
    anyway that's just because e been so
  • 00:14:21
    damn disappointing not NE I mean
  • 00:14:23
    obviously the current price action plays
  • 00:14:24
    into it the current price action showing
  • 00:14:26
    how disappointing ethereum has been this
  • 00:14:28
    entire summer
  • 00:14:29
    it's been crazy salana for the win which
  • 00:14:32
    I did not uh take a position in early
  • 00:14:34
    unfortunately anyway continuing
  • 00:14:36
    ethereum look at this man it is trying
  • 00:14:39
    it is trying it's desperate man e just
  • 00:14:41
    like please man please market makers
  • 00:14:43
    don't let me go under
  • 00:14:45
    $2,000 let's see how we go let's see how
  • 00:14:48
    we go uh Sean says I haven't bought
  • 00:14:50
    anything since
  • 00:14:54
    December uh where's this guy what at I
  • 00:14:57
    sold eth years ago holy smokes are still
  • 00:14:58
    hanging I I know I know I know well you
  • 00:15:00
    know there was a day when eth was a good
  • 00:15:02
    coin to hold that has not been the case
  • 00:15:03
    for a very long time man it's been
  • 00:15:05
    pretty
  • 00:15:07
    rough
  • 00:15:08
    anyway continuing uh eth same situation
  • 00:15:13
    now we came back up to the 20-day EMA so
  • 00:15:15
    that was you know momentarily kind of
  • 00:15:17
    like oh maybe something's going to
  • 00:15:18
    happen here but again so I was talking
  • 00:15:20
    about yesterday rejection levels we got
  • 00:15:22
    back up to this key rejection point
  • 00:15:23
    right here so we got smacked down both
  • 00:15:26
    at the previous support which is now
  • 00:15:27
    price resistance and the 20-day
  • 00:15:29
    ma KY let's watch out for any relief
  • 00:15:32
    rallies that come in to again
  • 00:15:34
    potentially get rejected here in this
  • 00:15:35
    $2,500 Zone $2,500 is the bare minimum
  • 00:15:39
    just for something to start happening
  • 00:15:40
    with ethereum in the next um you know
  • 00:15:44
    days continuing uh great thoughts here
  • 00:15:47
    from Nado he says no Tre secret that
  • 00:15:48
    Trump has a massive ego on multiple
  • 00:15:50
    occasions he called himself the crypto
  • 00:15:51
    president he went so far as claiming
  • 00:15:52
    that he was the he was the one who
  • 00:15:53
    pushed Bitcoin $100,000 do you really
  • 00:15:56
    think he's going to let the market nuke
  • 00:15:57
    into Oblivion right after started bull
  • 00:15:59
    posting about it so he can look like a
  • 00:16:00
    loser to the whole planet I highly doubt
  • 00:16:02
    it my view hasn't changed no other
  • 00:16:03
    scenario makes sense to me at the moment
  • 00:16:04
    don't get me wrong price can stay
  • 00:16:05
    volatile over the next few weeks there's
  • 00:16:08
    still potential liquidity to be taken on
  • 00:16:09
    the downside that's just part of the
  • 00:16:10
    game after the short-term noise I still
  • 00:16:13
    believe about we're about to witness a
  • 00:16:14
    giant master plan of a rug this view
  • 00:16:17
    also aligns with onchain data big
  • 00:16:18
    players accumulating Etc flesh cap flesh
  • 00:16:21
    Capital yeah it's almost like it gez
  • 00:16:23
    Louise fresh Capital will start flowing
  • 00:16:25
    into crypto the market will reverse
  • 00:16:26
    higher it'll attract an F ton of
  • 00:16:29
    newcomers it'll go mainstream as hell
  • 00:16:31
    we'll get the blowoff top right imagine
  • 00:16:33
    when really when the US launches a
  • 00:16:35
    crypto Reserve man it's gonna be crazy
  • 00:16:36
    okay the absolute nuts insiders will
  • 00:16:39
    make billions normal people will get
  • 00:16:40
    annihilated some of you might say that's
  • 00:16:42
    exactly what's happening right now I
  • 00:16:44
    don't think so nobody outside of us
  • 00:16:46
    crypto nerds is even paying attention to
  • 00:16:47
    the [ __ ] show of an industry yet largely
  • 00:16:50
    true there's been some momentary blimps
  • 00:16:53
    of people normies coming back into the
  • 00:16:55
    market but for the most part it's just
  • 00:16:57
    been us here guys
  • 00:16:59
    getting our asses kicked round and
  • 00:17:02
    around again SP good time so that's not
  • 00:17:04
    helpable ver this is why I believe
  • 00:17:06
    higher prices for a sustained period of
  • 00:17:08
    time mainstream attention are two
  • 00:17:09
    ingredients that are still missing why
  • 00:17:11
    rug some crypto degenerate holders when
  • 00:17:13
    he can rug half the world dream bigger
  • 00:17:15
    guys dream bigger Trump's gonna rug the
  • 00:17:17
    whole world it'll be
  • 00:17:20
    great everyone's gonna get so rugged I
  • 00:17:22
    know a man who had a rug store one time
  • 00:17:24
    the best rugs most beautiful rugs I said
  • 00:17:26
    how do you make these rugs he said look
  • 00:17:27
    Don we got the best best around here
  • 00:17:29
    have to just pull it and everything
  • 00:17:31
    goes
  • 00:17:34
    anyway H I like this thesis and look
  • 00:17:37
    short-term pain long-term gain if Trump
  • 00:17:39
    pulls off what he's trying to pull off
  • 00:17:40
    and it's all about macro right now okay
  • 00:17:42
    it doesn't matter every positive crypto
  • 00:17:44
    news
  • 00:17:46
    story
  • 00:17:48
    is getting nothing happening to
  • 00:17:52
    it you
  • 00:17:54
    know every positive news story down
  • 00:18:00
    it's been rough been rough uh where are
  • 00:18:02
    we at what happened to fcoin Lark uh why
  • 00:18:06
    did you sell well I sold because um I
  • 00:18:08
    didn't want to take the risk of it going
  • 00:18:10
    to Absolute Oblivion I still like fcoin
  • 00:18:12
    by the way um so I lost money on that
  • 00:18:15
    it's fine you know uh I flipped my Brett
  • 00:18:18
    which was in big profits to
  • 00:18:21
    fcoin Lost most of the profits from
  • 00:18:24
    Brett it's fine it is what it is it's
  • 00:18:27
    all good I actually still like fcoin as
  • 00:18:28
    a potential meme whenever risk come back
  • 00:18:30
    comes back on because it's still at this
  • 00:18:32
    point is getting huge amounts of uh
  • 00:18:34
    interest so we'll see how long that that
  • 00:18:37
    keeps up but obviously memes are the far
  • 00:18:39
    end of the risk spectrum and I'd prefer
  • 00:18:41
    not to have that high level of risk
  • 00:18:43
    until we see some this is a thing you
  • 00:18:45
    know you might see uh risk turns around
  • 00:18:48
    fart coin pumps 100% breaks the 20-day
  • 00:18:50
    EMA and then you got a better entry a
  • 00:18:52
    safer entry quote unquote because you
  • 00:18:54
    might actually have a market reversal on
  • 00:18:55
    your hands versus trying to time the
  • 00:18:57
    bottom catch kn all that kind of stuff
  • 00:18:59
    people getting chopped up doing this man
  • 00:19:01
    I'd rather just chill on a bit of cash
  • 00:19:04
    relax relax you know again keeping the
  • 00:19:07
    Bitcoin all that stuff but
  • 00:19:10
    uh uh Lark sold my entire portfolio a
  • 00:19:13
    week ago basically broke even well you
  • 00:19:15
    beat a lot of people let's put it that
  • 00:19:17
    way feels like a win it is a win it is a
  • 00:19:19
    win even though kind of sucks you know I
  • 00:19:21
    mean I'm sure he round tripped a lot of
  • 00:19:22
    gains there but um looking to reenter
  • 00:19:24
    position is now a good time to buy or
  • 00:19:25
    still to risky first
  • 00:19:27
    cycle uh look look
  • 00:19:30
    David when you sold last week versus the
  • 00:19:33
    prices right now it's not that big of a
  • 00:19:35
    difference and I don't know how it's
  • 00:19:36
    going to play out over the next few days
  • 00:19:37
    few weeks we'll see will the equity
  • 00:19:40
    markets continue their panic over the
  • 00:19:43
    Tariff situation will it all blow over
  • 00:19:45
    will it not be that big of a deal what's
  • 00:19:48
    the FED going to do in two weeks how's
  • 00:19:50
    the CPI going to look all that kind of
  • 00:19:52
    stuff starts coming into play here
  • 00:19:54
    okay anyway let's see how we continue to
  • 00:19:57
    play out over the next few days here see
  • 00:19:58
    what
  • 00:20:00
    happens but um think about where good
  • 00:20:03
    entry points would be right but uh the
  • 00:20:06
    tricky part is that markets can remain
  • 00:20:08
    very irrational until we do that uh
  • 00:20:11
    everybody wants to be quick to call a
  • 00:20:12
    bottom right but so far we have intense
  • 00:20:17
    macro fears that are driving markets and
  • 00:20:20
    crypto tends to get hit hardest in the
  • 00:20:22
    situation now maybe we bounce big time
  • 00:20:24
    today on us Equity Market open and it's
  • 00:20:26
    all over but probably not there's still
  • 00:20:28
    a lot of headline risk that will um
  • 00:20:30
    continue to probably affect the markets
  • 00:20:32
    for at least a few weeks especially
  • 00:20:33
    until we see what the FED says and all
  • 00:20:34
    that kind of stuff so this is kind of
  • 00:20:36
    where we're at right now uh for the
  • 00:20:38
    markets so good time to buy or not hard
  • 00:20:40
    to say man hard to say you know if you
  • 00:20:43
    are able to uh let's say dollar cost
  • 00:20:46
    average into
  • 00:20:47
    positions and keep sort of a solid time
  • 00:20:50
    frame where you're gonna say okay you
  • 00:20:51
    know I've got let's see what happens
  • 00:20:53
    over the next year two years three years
  • 00:20:54
    five years and I'm willing to accept
  • 00:20:55
    volatility to the downside because this
  • 00:20:58
    this is the thing it's going to mess
  • 00:20:59
    with you now you got out a break even
  • 00:21:01
    you've already said to yourself well I'm
  • 00:21:02
    not willing to accept that downside
  • 00:21:04
    volatility trying to perfectly nail the
  • 00:21:06
    bottom
  • 00:21:08
    becomes a tricky thing to do because you
  • 00:21:11
    might buy today thinking okay price is
  • 00:21:13
    really row tomorrow prices go lower then
  • 00:21:15
    you go [ __ ] should have stayed in cash
  • 00:21:17
    and it'll start messing even more so
  • 00:21:19
    maybe dollar cost averaging in on these
  • 00:21:21
    dump
  • 00:21:22
    days would uh be a slower way to sort of
  • 00:21:26
    keep to dip your toes back into the
  • 00:21:28
    market Market a little bit not Financial
  • 00:21:29
    advice obvious just you know some
  • 00:21:31
    thoughts appear for you okay continuing
  • 00:21:34
    uh the others chart looking super cooked
  • 00:21:36
    as well unsurprisingly stochastic RSI
  • 00:21:39
    starting to bottom out but you can see
  • 00:21:40
    that last time it bottomed out and then
  • 00:21:42
    we still ground down gargantuan Le so
  • 00:21:45
    you know just not always the best signal
  • 00:21:47
    there macd trending down this the weekly
  • 00:21:50
    chart here by the
  • 00:21:52
    way you can see right here trading under
  • 00:21:55
    the 50e EMA the 20we EMA
  • 00:21:58
    200 we EMA down here at $200 billion
  • 00:22:01
    guys last line of support it's only $30
  • 00:22:03
    billion down
  • 00:22:06
    [ __ ] let's see how we go uh currently
  • 00:22:08
    sitting at a key area of price support
  • 00:22:10
    previous resistance let's see if we can
  • 00:22:13
    bounce there or not cardano like a lot
  • 00:22:15
    of other coins faced a pretty big
  • 00:22:17
    rejection yesterday though I put the
  • 00:22:18
    weekly chart up here you can see still
  • 00:22:20
    above the 20we EMA which is actually
  • 00:22:22
    relatively bullish one of the better
  • 00:22:23
    looking
  • 00:22:26
    charts in the market right now so just
  • 00:22:28
    FYI uh obviously we
  • 00:22:31
    retraced the whole move yesterday hit
  • 00:22:35
    into that area of price resistance as we
  • 00:22:37
    were talking about yesterday came back
  • 00:22:39
    down and uh hit that 80 cent buy Zone I
  • 00:22:42
    was talking about now it did blast under
  • 00:22:43
    that to around 75 cents and you know
  • 00:22:45
    buying here at 80 cents or something
  • 00:22:48
    like
  • 00:22:49
    that is
  • 00:22:51
    um you know hitting a bit different
  • 00:22:54
    sentiment wise than buying at a dollar
  • 00:22:55
    yesterday when it feel felt like more
  • 00:22:57
    like oh [ __ ] America's some with crypto
  • 00:22:59
    and now we're going to have a breakout
  • 00:23:00
    didn't happen hard rejection at
  • 00:23:02
    resistance again currently sitting right
  • 00:23:05
    above key moving averages so as long as
  • 00:23:08
    cardano stays above sort of 75 cents
  • 00:23:11
    it's in a decent Zone but it will not be
  • 00:23:13
    immune to any uh further selloff in the
  • 00:23:17
    market okay just
  • 00:23:20
    FYI okay um let's have a quick look at
  • 00:23:23
    the xrp chart as well xrp chart on the
  • 00:23:25
    weekly actually looks pretty decent 20we
  • 00:23:27
    EMA still holding up daily not quite as
  • 00:23:30
    hot to be honest but still much closer
  • 00:23:33
    to the EMAs than the most coins are
  • 00:23:36
    going to look at in the chart right now
  • 00:23:38
    so it's definitely one of the stronger
  • 00:23:40
    ones and didn't completely reverse
  • 00:23:43
    yesterday's pump candle just
  • 00:23:45
    mostly
  • 00:23:47
    crap salana weekly chart looking pretty
  • 00:23:50
    damn rough man let's keep that real way
  • 00:23:53
    under the exponential moving averages
  • 00:23:54
    right now daily chart also not offering
  • 00:23:57
    much hope under basically all the major
  • 00:23:59
    EMAs as well strong rejection yesterday
  • 00:24:02
    here at the uh 20-day EMA breakout
  • 00:24:06
    attempt completely retraced yesterday's
  • 00:24:09
    move Litecoin get into a pretty
  • 00:24:11
    dangerous Zone here for me I said when I
  • 00:24:13
    entered this trade if it starts you know
  • 00:24:15
    getting acceptance under $100 I might
  • 00:24:17
    cut it and just take the L even though I
  • 00:24:19
    still think that ETF thesis has a very
  • 00:24:23
    strong chance of playing out so I'd look
  • 00:24:24
    to re-enter in that situation but uh
  • 00:24:27
    let's see weekly macd bearish crossover
  • 00:24:30
    looking to come into play here as well
  • 00:24:32
    which is not super damn awesome if you
  • 00:24:34
    ask me one day charts here lost the 20
  • 00:24:38
    and 50-day EMAs currently sitting right
  • 00:24:40
    at the 200 day EMA that lines up about
  • 00:24:42
    100 bucks that again bull bear line
  • 00:24:45
    right here okay
  • 00:24:47
    okay let's let's answer some your
  • 00:24:49
    question I would answering some
  • 00:24:50
    questions we go through
  • 00:24:52
    okay so the presentation was a little
  • 00:24:54
    bit longer today than we would usually
  • 00:24:56
    do
  • 00:25:10
    [Music]
  • 00:25:12
    okay looks like exactly as I said it's
  • 00:25:14
    over for this bull market you know it's
  • 00:25:16
    it's interesting thought I was thinking
  • 00:25:17
    about this today you know
  • 00:25:19
    functionally how long this uh Market
  • 00:25:22
    correction this dump last is a
  • 00:25:25
    interesting question because I still
  • 00:25:27
    think we go on to 150 250k something
  • 00:25:30
    like that uh later this year after
  • 00:25:33
    Trump's done rearranging the economy
  • 00:25:35
    let's say but functionally that short
  • 00:25:39
    term over the next few
  • 00:25:41
    months local top back in December early
  • 00:25:45
    January to what extent does it matter um
  • 00:25:48
    where the rest of the cycle goes short
  • 00:25:50
    term feeling pretty cooked
  • 00:25:53
    right Lark what are your top five AI
  • 00:25:56
    coins that you're bullish on look I I
  • 00:25:58
    think altcoins right now especially AI
  • 00:26:00
    coins are on the pretty far end of the
  • 00:26:01
    risk Spectrum here if we're we're being
  • 00:26:03
    honest about it so these are probably
  • 00:26:05
    ones are going to be most reflective and
  • 00:26:06
    bounce back pretty hard when Market goes
  • 00:26:08
    back risk on but also right now you're
  • 00:26:11
    taking a pretty big risk by just trying
  • 00:26:13
    to jump into a bunch of AI coins right
  • 00:26:15
    now uh because if we see further sell
  • 00:26:17
    off they're probably also going to get
  • 00:26:19
    hit the hardest you know Bitcoin might
  • 00:26:20
    fall another 10% just an example but
  • 00:26:22
    your AI coins in that situation probably
  • 00:26:24
    dropp to 50% okay that being said I
  • 00:26:27
    still like AI 16 that I still hold that
  • 00:26:29
    it's a rebro a bags just down so bad I
  • 00:26:31
    thought screw it goes zero s of
  • 00:26:35
    V I have two kidneys but only one
  • 00:26:37
    opportunity to buy bread at 3.5
  • 00:26:39
    cents keep your kidneys man keep your
  • 00:26:50
    kidneys uh somebody asked about um about
  • 00:26:54
    Ray radium I think radium is going to
  • 00:26:56
    take a big hit because pump. fun
  • 00:26:59
    whenever people start aping into meme
  • 00:27:00
    coins again uh pump. funds got their own
  • 00:27:05
    um decentralized Finance Services now
  • 00:27:08
    they don't need radium anymore and
  • 00:27:09
    they're not going to use radium anymore
  • 00:27:10
    and that was probably one
  • 00:27:11
    radium's it was radium's biggest um
  • 00:27:15
    source of Revenue or one of their
  • 00:27:17
    biggest sources of revenue coming in
  • 00:27:20
    so long-term radium still probably going
  • 00:27:22
    to do pretty good with his BuyBacks and
  • 00:27:24
    stuff like that short term they need to
  • 00:27:26
    find some new funding um
  • 00:27:33
    sources lar I feel like this time is
  • 00:27:35
    obviously different than previous Cycles
  • 00:27:36
    I mean think about every time Trump bull
  • 00:27:38
    poost something it crashes even worse
  • 00:27:40
    after a fake pump like the meme us
  • 00:27:42
    reverbs say yeah it's been pretty rough
  • 00:27:43
    man pretty pretty
  • 00:27:50
    rough thing I guess I just did I wasn't
  • 00:27:53
    even thinking about
  • 00:27:54
    it you love question where hat yeah yeah
  • 00:27:59
    lar do you think polka dot will have its
  • 00:28:00
    time this bull run I don't know we'll
  • 00:28:02
    we'll see what happens to be honest I
  • 00:28:04
    think polka Dot's one of those coins
  • 00:28:06
    that struggles to have that really sort
  • 00:28:08
    of nice clean narrative that people can
  • 00:28:09
    get
  • 00:28:11
    behind so let's see I mean there's
  • 00:28:14
    plenty of bullish technical upgrades and
  • 00:28:15
    stuff coming but
  • 00:28:18
    the price action's been absolutely
  • 00:28:21
    redonkulous even before um the recent
  • 00:28:24
    sell off the price action it had been
  • 00:28:25
    pretty pretty ethereum like
  • 00:28:28
    let's say oh gez eth cut that eth bag
  • 00:28:32
    man again just has been so disappointing
  • 00:28:35
    and so is I so is
  • 00:28:37
    pointing uh USI
  • 00:28:40
    Tech isn't that the name of some Ponzi
  • 00:28:43
    scam from back in the day I swear that
  • 00:28:44
    was a name of some Ponzi scam from back
  • 00:28:46
    in the day is that back again maybe I'm
  • 00:28:48
    wrong I it's been a while since people
  • 00:28:50
    since people ask me about any of these
  • 00:28:52
    Ponzi scam things they used to be just
  • 00:28:54
    all over the place it like the big thing
  • 00:28:55
    in 2018 2019 these sort of onchain Ponzi
  • 00:28:59
    scheme trading [ __ ] scams uh is that
  • 00:29:03
    is that the one is that the one I feel
  • 00:29:04
    like that was one of those ones Maybe
  • 00:29:06
    I'm Wrong maybe it's something
  • 00:29:09
    else
  • 00:29:20
    okay do you think uh 7 March will be buy
  • 00:29:23
    will be sell the news event or we Rally
  • 00:29:26
    from there well you normally there's a
  • 00:29:28
    buy the rumor in advance to that there's
  • 00:29:29
    no buy the rumor currently there's dump
  • 00:29:31
    the rumor dump the news dump everything
  • 00:29:33
    dump The
  • 00:29:35
    Dumping that's brutal man that's brutal
  • 00:29:38
    uh
  • 00:29:40
    look they would need to come out with
  • 00:29:42
    something pretty damn big on March 7th
  • 00:29:43
    and I'm not sure that again as mentioned
  • 00:29:46
    I'm not sure that the capital gains tax
  • 00:29:48
    it's
  • 00:29:50
    big but I'm not sure it's going to be
  • 00:29:53
    big enough to move the market around
  • 00:29:57
    right you got to understand the US
  • 00:29:58
    economy the US Equity markets are like a
  • 00:30:00
    runaway freight train okay and throwing
  • 00:30:04
    a crypto Summit in front of that doesn't
  • 00:30:07
    really move the needle that much unless
  • 00:30:09
    you
  • 00:30:12
    um unless you have uh I don't know some
  • 00:30:15
    C unless they announce the Strategic
  • 00:30:17
    Reserve or something like that at that
  • 00:30:19
    meeting which they're probably not going
  • 00:30:21
    to
  • 00:30:23
    anyway good day Deb lower lows lower the
  • 00:30:27
    lower the lower lows go it's just again
  • 00:30:29
    every basically everything in crypto
  • 00:30:31
    right now is in a downtrend there's a
  • 00:30:32
    few that
  • 00:30:33
    aren't right um litecoin's kind of been
  • 00:30:36
    in a Range let's see if it stays in that
  • 00:30:39
    range right drop below the 38 may be
  • 00:30:41
    pretty bad but a lot of coins have been
  • 00:30:42
    in pretty brutal downtrends for a while
  • 00:30:44
    now and most of them have absolutely
  • 00:30:47
    failed to like reclaim their 20-day EMAs
  • 00:30:49
    and stuff like that until we you know I
  • 00:30:52
    haven't been doing many trades recently
  • 00:30:54
    the ones that I have done have basically
  • 00:30:56
    all got stopped out almost immediately
  • 00:30:57
    because there's been no strength behind
  • 00:30:58
    any of these bounces recently
  • 00:31:01
    so I won't probably won't be trading
  • 00:31:03
    until I see some retakes on some 20-day
  • 00:31:06
    EMAs for some of these coins
  • 00:31:08
    here because you're just really just
  • 00:31:10
    fighting the trend now unless you're
  • 00:31:12
    shorting of course you can be shorting
  • 00:31:13
    like a retest of some major um
  • 00:31:16
    resistance support zones you can do
  • 00:31:18
    shorting of um retest of the underside
  • 00:31:21
    of some of these EMAs which has been a
  • 00:31:23
    pretty good strategy during the
  • 00:31:24
    downtrend 20a particular has been very
  • 00:31:26
    reflexive for a lot of these coins
  • 00:31:28
    but if you want to go long then you need
  • 00:31:30
    to wait until we see some breakouts
  • 00:31:31
    beond these 20-day EMAs which is
  • 00:31:33
    basically very few assets right now uh
  • 00:31:37
    I'm not sure what I haven't watched
  • 00:31:38
    Ben's video on ethereum going home so
  • 00:31:41
    I'm not exactly sure what his thesis is
  • 00:31:43
    behind
  • 00:31:46
    that if a USA Bitcoin Reserve isn't
  • 00:31:48
    enough to pump the market then why would
  • 00:31:50
    a Bitcoin Su pump the problem with the
  • 00:31:51
    Bitcoin reserves very bullish news but
  • 00:31:54
    doesn't happen overnight does it it's
  • 00:31:56
    not like there's a Bill in Congress
  • 00:31:57
    that's about to pass we have to actually
  • 00:32:00
    deliberate it put a bill together get
  • 00:32:02
    the house and the Senate to pass it that
  • 00:32:04
    [ __ ] takes time like that might not be
  • 00:32:06
    until October this year or something
  • 00:32:09
    which kind of lines up with a 150k final
  • 00:32:12
    rally later this year we'll see how it
  • 00:32:14
    goes
  • 00:32:19
    though lar how can you never talk about
  • 00:32:21
    Caspa can't can't talk about all the
  • 00:32:22
    coins man too many damn coins out there
  • 00:32:25
    it's that my mental SPAC is limited to I
  • 00:32:28
    don't know the 20 blockchain ecosystems
  • 00:32:30
    that I already sort of talk about to
  • 00:32:32
    some level of
  • 00:32:34
    knowledge uh opinion on ICP I mean I
  • 00:32:37
    look I like the whole focus of uh the
  • 00:32:39
    blockchain on
  • 00:32:42
    AI but other than that I I don't have an
  • 00:32:45
    opinion on I haven't looked at the
  • 00:32:46
    charts don't really know the
  • 00:32:47
    fundamentals behind ICP so um no strong
  • 00:32:50
    opinion there so again I can't um can't
  • 00:32:53
    keep track of all of
  • 00:32:56
    them um
  • 00:32:59
    Market always does opposite of what
  • 00:33:00
    everyone expects Amen to that
  • 00:33:09
    Ralph Lark do you think this crash or
  • 00:33:12
    correction is worse than one in mid 2021
  • 00:33:14
    it's not worse I mean just categorically
  • 00:33:16
    it's not worse Bitcoin went down I think
  • 00:33:19
    55% in that
  • 00:33:21
    crash altcoins went down about as much
  • 00:33:23
    as these altcoins have gone down so far
  • 00:33:25
    this cycle [ __ ] but uh Bitcoin has help
  • 00:33:27
    up much stronger by comparison and I
  • 00:33:30
    think that's sort of your hopium thesis
  • 00:33:34
    that once Trump is done with all the
  • 00:33:36
    Tariff [ __ ] and people have time to
  • 00:33:39
    readjust to New Reality stock markets
  • 00:33:41
    crash down a little bit bond yields fall
  • 00:33:43
    fed starts rate cutting all that kind of
  • 00:33:44
    stuff M2 money supply starts pulling
  • 00:33:47
    markets back up a little bit we find a
  • 00:33:49
    good solid
  • 00:33:50
    bottom then yeah then we can see markets
  • 00:33:53
    recover but
  • 00:33:54
    um I don't think that this crash is
  • 00:33:57
    worse than the mid 2021 21 crash by any
  • 00:34:00
    means that was much worse in a lot of
  • 00:34:02
    ways and it was definitely it was
  • 00:34:04
    completely over at that point and then
  • 00:34:08
    it wasn't very soon thereafter so we
  • 00:34:10
    could still have further to fall guys
  • 00:34:13
    okay just
  • 00:34:15
    FYI next major support zone for Bitcoin
  • 00:34:17
    75k is the major major support under uh
  • 00:34:22
    under 75k and it's lights out for a
  • 00:34:25
    while probably
  • 00:34:30
    how can we get 150k BTC if market makers
  • 00:34:33
    keep wrecking everyone we make progress
  • 00:34:34
    same thing happened in 21 then we got
  • 00:34:36
    $69,000
  • 00:34:38
    Bitcoin let's
  • 00:34:41
    see ah Arthur Hayes got St man again
  • 00:34:45
    trading these markets has been
  • 00:34:46
    absolutely Bonkers guys so if you're
  • 00:34:47
    trying to trade these markets right
  • 00:34:51
    now it's brutal it's brutal I mean
  • 00:34:55
    being short from let's say I don't know
  • 00:34:59
    where Arthur opened a short at but if
  • 00:35:01
    Arthur had been short from
  • 00:35:03
    $96,000 or something like that or
  • 00:35:06
    $95,000 well he was right but he was
  • 00:35:08
    waiting for a 70k call and then of
  • 00:35:11
    course markets bounced back up people
  • 00:35:14
    got liquidated there's been billions and
  • 00:35:16
    billions of dollars of liquidations the
  • 00:35:18
    past few days because people keep
  • 00:35:21
    chasing trying to catch the bottoms and
  • 00:35:23
    all that kind of stuff and look this is
  • 00:35:24
    like very hard trading conditions right
  • 00:35:27
    now in the market for me personally I
  • 00:35:29
    would just like to see some better
  • 00:35:30
    trading conditions come back in for
  • 00:35:32
    assets to start trading back above their
  • 00:35:33
    20-day moving averages and even if
  • 00:35:35
    that's just a bigger relief rally within
  • 00:35:37
    sort of a more bearish Trend that's at
  • 00:35:40
    least buying into strength trading into
  • 00:35:43
    strength versus just throwing darts at
  • 00:35:45
    the board and hoping that something's
  • 00:35:46
    going to happen which I think is what a
  • 00:35:47
    lot of people are
  • 00:35:49
    uh uh going on right now anyway
  • 00:35:59
    Market should not rely on someone buying
  • 00:36:00
    a
  • 00:36:03
    dog what is this com I guess I missed
  • 00:36:06
    something in the conversation here
  • 00:36:10
    anyway um one or two more questions guys
  • 00:36:13
    want finish up for
  • 00:36:18
    today Sean says mark my words will be
  • 00:36:21
    the biggest and longest Bull Run of all
  • 00:36:22
    time this is the interesting thing again
  • 00:36:25
    short-term pain long-term gain if if
  • 00:36:28
    Trump pulls off some kind of reaganesque
  • 00:36:31
    like recovery where he really does he
  • 00:36:34
    renegotiates the trade deals he gets the
  • 00:36:36
    dollar down he gets the bond yields down
  • 00:36:39
    he gets the rates down without causing a
  • 00:36:41
    horrific
  • 00:36:43
    recession got to land the plane
  • 00:36:46
    perfectly if he does that then maybe we
  • 00:36:51
    pump right through
  • 00:36:52
    2026 and we're not in 2017 or 2020
  • 00:36:58
    we're actually in 2016 right now and the
  • 00:37:01
    early top in March 24 and the Bitcoin
  • 00:37:04
    having that stuff really [ __ ] matters
  • 00:37:06
    we're in 2016 and macro is the only
  • 00:37:09
    thing that matters and Trump pushing
  • 00:37:11
    short-term pain to reignite the housing
  • 00:37:13
    market to reignite the US economy to
  • 00:37:16
    create real
  • 00:37:17
    value pumps markets after basically
  • 00:37:21
    pulling off the plaster the Band-Aid for
  • 00:37:23
    you Americans um and essentially
  • 00:37:28
    pumping markets like crazy but later M2
  • 00:37:31
    Supply up dxy down all that kind of
  • 00:37:33
    stuff rates down business cycle still
  • 00:37:35
    looking pretty decent got a video coming
  • 00:37:36
    out on that for you guys tonight so make
  • 00:37:38
    sure you check that
  • 00:37:40
    out but yeah the short-term pain is
  • 00:37:42
    definitely uh definitely rough we're
  • 00:37:45
    going to go into recession I feel if the
  • 00:37:47
    um is the Atlanta fed released that GDP
  • 00:37:49
    growth is now expected to be like minus
  • 00:37:51
    2.4% or some [ __ ] like that if that's
  • 00:37:55
    right y rough
  • 00:38:06
    [Music]
  • 00:38:13
    rough why can't altcoins go on their own
  • 00:38:15
    why is it always dumping with BTC well
  • 00:38:17
    we did the altcoins did kind of go on
  • 00:38:18
    their own for a while dumping well
  • 00:38:20
    Bitcoin held up
  • 00:38:22
    ironically um look the simple reality is
  • 00:38:26
    is that
  • 00:38:28
    altcoins are the farthest end of the
  • 00:38:30
    risk Spectrum so when we talk about risk
  • 00:38:32
    we go from
  • 00:38:33
    like let's say gold bonds Fiat kind of
  • 00:38:38
    lowest risk stuff right then you go into
  • 00:38:40
    the S&P 500 the NASDAQ 100 Dow Jones
  • 00:38:43
    Industrial Average stuff like that okay
  • 00:38:45
    lowrisk indexes then you go into
  • 00:38:48
    dividend stocks stuff like that low risk
  • 00:38:50
    right you get start getting risk you go
  • 00:38:52
    into
  • 00:38:54
    um tech stocks and stuff like that then
  • 00:38:57
    you go into crypto bitcoin's riskier
  • 00:38:59
    than tech stocks okay higher beta
  • 00:39:02
    ethereum salana stuff like that riskier
  • 00:39:04
    than that riskier than that you have big
  • 00:39:06
    blockchains big D5 protocols with
  • 00:39:09
    buyback and stuff like that to put in
  • 00:39:11
    all that sort of stuff right then you
  • 00:39:13
    keep going down the risk Spectrum gaming
  • 00:39:17
    nfts def um def mean some
  • 00:39:21
    defi all that kind of stuff AI agents
  • 00:39:24
    all that stuff right at the far end so
  • 00:39:27
    that's the farthest end of the risk
  • 00:39:28
    Spectrum so when markets start going
  • 00:39:31
    risk off the farthest end of the risk
  • 00:39:33
    Spectrum gets hit first and then we back
  • 00:39:36
    up towards the lower risk stuff and
  • 00:39:39
    panic keeps ensuing back along every
  • 00:39:42
    level until you find a bottom
  • 00:39:45
    somewhere it's good question
  • 00:39:58
    bullish catalyst is when everyone
  • 00:39:59
    shorting
  • 00:40:02
    125x depression most likely by summer
  • 00:40:04
    brutal if so if we enter a new Great
  • 00:40:07
    Depression gez Louise definitely rough
  • 00:40:10
    sentiment on the
  • 00:40:12
    timeline uh right now without a doubt
  • 00:40:24
    [Music]
  • 00:40:27
    bigger gains and loss equals higher risk
  • 00:40:30
    that's true that's true recession
  • 00:40:32
    imident hasn't started yet well if the
  • 00:40:34
    GDP growth statistics hold true then
  • 00:40:38
    things could still get worse before they
  • 00:40:39
    get better guys so stay safe out there
  • 00:40:42
    don't over
  • 00:40:43
    leverage understand what's going on in
  • 00:40:46
    the markets keep a uh lower time
  • 00:40:49
    preference during these kind of periods
  • 00:40:50
    make sure that your cash reserves are
  • 00:40:52
    okay that if you lose your job or
  • 00:40:54
    something like that you're not going to
  • 00:40:55
    be screwed okay stay safe love you guys
  • 00:40:58
    I'll see you back tomorrow okay
タグ
  • crypto market
  • downtrend
  • volatility
  • tariffs
  • investing strategy
  • Federal Reserve
  • capital gains tax
  • market recovery
  • sentiment
  • bullish and bearish