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welcome back everybody so today we are
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going to be checking out Elon and Trump
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just in regards to the economy and
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markets now I think they are currently
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doing a secret
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plan um and they're not really fully
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disclosing it to the public for a few
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different reasons because I think it
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will have large implications on the
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stock market so let's pretty much get
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straight into it I really do think that
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this is incredibly incredibly important
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to fully understand because it will give
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you a much better understanding of where
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we currently are from a fiscal point of
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view from a market point of view and
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from a government's point of view
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obviously when you start to zoom out and
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you and you don't really look at the
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headlines obviously what is going on
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with Trump what is going on with Elon
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and you really start to look at the
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implications of of what is really going
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on you you really start to get a very
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good understanding now to basically get
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into this whole thing we need to look at
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the income from the United States so the
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US basically generates $ 4.92 trillion
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in tax revenue now of which 90%
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basically comes from the private sector
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and 10% basically comes from the public
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sector now from an entitlement spending
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a military spending the US is basically
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spending 3.9 trillion and about
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875 billion in terms of military
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spending now when you deduct the
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entitlements from the tax revenue you
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are basically left with a net fiscal
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balance of about
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127 billion now what you need to take
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into consideration what I think is
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massively massively important is that
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the US has set $35 trillion in debt what
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basically needs to roll over onto the
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current rates what is
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4.2% interest rates now obviously 35
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trillion at 4.2% interest rates gives
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you an annual interest payment on the
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debt of about $ 1.5 trillion now it
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doesn't really take a genius to really
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understand that a net fiscal balance of
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about 130 billion would not pay off $1.5
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trillion now they really need to start
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to bring down the interest rates now
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what I was talking in my previous video
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is that the US government basically has
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to refinance $7 trillion of debt in 2025
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now when you look at the debt
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distribution of the of this debt you can
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basically see that it's about 40% of the
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total debt needs to be refinanced in the
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next couple of months and next couple of
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weeks now what I have done over here is
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I've basically taken that $7 trillion do
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and I have applied a interest rate to
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that $7 trillion so you can see what the
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interest payments the annual interest
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payments on that debt would be now
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obviously at the moment at
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420
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obviously at 420 interest rates we would
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see that the annual interest payments on
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7 trillion would be about 300 billion
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and at 3% it would be 210 billion at 2%
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it would be 140 billion and at 1% it
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would be 70 billion now if we take the
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net fiscal balance and we basically
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subtract the the rate obviously is 4.2%
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3% 2% 1% you can start to see we get a
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very very very different picture in
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terms of what the net fiscal balance of
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the United States would currently be and
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why it is massively massively important
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that the rates on the 10-year note comes
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down significantly now obviously if it
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rolls over to
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4.2% the the net fiscal balance would be
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minus 170 billion now now obviously this
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is why I believe Elon and Doge are
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looking at entitlement spendings they're
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looking at spendings just in general to
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try and save as much as possible now
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what I have done is I have taken the
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Doge clock from the US national debt
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clock. org I'll obviously put this link
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in the description but I I don't really
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know how accurate this this number is
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but I've basically just just said for
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I've basically just rounded this number
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up to about 190 billion now if we take
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into consideration the savings what Elon
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and Doge are currently doing and we add
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that number back into the net fiscal
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balance and then subtract obviously the
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annual interest payments
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on7
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trillion we basically get 27 billion do
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what are currently left over now this
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isn't a perfect world this is obviously
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if tax revenue is not impacted now
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obviously there's a lot of news going
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around at the moment especially when it
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comes to trade tariffs now I really do
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understand why you would want to put
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trade tariffs on because I think trade
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tariffs would bring in a lot of let's
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say tax revenue very very quickly now
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the long-term implications of tariffs
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would be detrimental in terms of tax
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revenue just in general but it does
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really help in terms of bringing tax
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revenue in very very quickly now now
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what you can see here is that as the
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interest rates basically come down you
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can see that that there's massive relief
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for the US government and what you can
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see also is that I've just kept the 190
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billion quite static throughout
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obviously the next couple of weeks and
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months and now obviously you could you
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could imply that as Elon and Doge find
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more and more wasteful spending
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obviously this number would massively
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increase what obviously is absolutely
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true now you can start to see that as
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interest rates come down and obviously
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Elon starts to save the US government a
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lot of spending you can start to see it
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becomes a lot easier in terms of
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managing the overall national debt now
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why I think the interest rates are not
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currently coming down is because now the
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Federal Reserve has a mandate what is
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basically maximum employ Loy mment and
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price stability now with unemployment at
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about 4.1% and inflation at about 3%
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there is no real reason for them to drop
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the rates they don't really have a
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reason from a mandate perspective
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because obviously unemployment is not
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massively shooting up and inflation is
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not massively shooting up so they are
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kind of in a bit of a tricky position
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obviously the Federal Reserve is fully
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aware that the US government obviously
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needs to refinance a lot of this debt
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onto these higher rates and I think it's
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very very clear of why we start to see
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the market to come down because as the
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market obviously starts to come down and
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let's say unemployment starts to go
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starts to go up the Federal Reserve can
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obviously step in and obviously create a
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reason to bring down the interest rates
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and I think the the the desired interest
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rate would be around 3 to 2% now
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obviously there's going to be a lot of
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debate around how much the FED cuts and
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obviously I think that is very dependent
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on how high the unemployment rate
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actually goes and obviously how our
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inflation goes so obviously if they
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massively reduce the rates at the moment
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where the current stock market is at it
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doesn't really look that good because it
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looks like they are trying to obviously
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uh prop up asset prices when when you
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start to look at the overall economy
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from what the FED is currently looking
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at from a unemployment and an inflation
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standpoint they don't really like I
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saying they don't really have a reason
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so they really need to create an
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artificial reason in terms of cutting
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the rates now I do think like I was
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saying in my previous video I think this
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is going going to happen sooner rather
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than later and like I was saying like
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the unemployment rate is relatively low
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the inflation rate is relatively low as
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well and when you start to look at the
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markets obviously we we we are seeing a
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quite a large correction on the NASDAQ
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and S&P now this now just to give you
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some more context of what this yellow
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line currently is now this is currently
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the net liquidity of global net
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liquidity around the world in terms of
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uh central banks and I've basically
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overlaid the net liquidity the global
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net liquidity onto the NASDAQ now what
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you can pretty much see now like let's
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just bring this down a little bit and
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let me just um now what you can pretty
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much see what I always find very very
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interesting is that you can start to see
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these large Divergence so as the market
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starts to
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correct we then start to stimulate we
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then start to print money what you can
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see is that throughout history we can
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kind of always see that the FED pretty
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much steps in and prints the money to
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obviously save the market and at the
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moment when you start to look at the net
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liquidity and obviously overlay it with
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NASDAQ we see a massive massive I mean I
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can't even get it onto the chat but we
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can start to see a massive Divergence
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and like I was saying like Market goes
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up obviously liquidity goes down and
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then obviously Market eventually follows
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and obviously touches net liquidity the
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FED comes in starts to stimulate and
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again I mean obviously this you can
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check this throughout history and we can
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always see these divergences now
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obviously we have a massive massive
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Divergence now are they really going to
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stimulate because obviously they're in a
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very very difficult position right
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because obviously if they do stimulate
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it massively distorts asset prices
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everybody thinks that we're going back
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back to risk on but obviously if the
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market starts to crash this would have
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large implications on the um on the
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unemployment but obviously it would
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bring inflation down so obviously it
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would give them the excuse in terms of
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cutting the interest rates now I really
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do think that Trump and Elon are fully
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fully fully aware of all of these
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numbers here and and I think that it's
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on purpose that Trump is kind of
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throwing his weight around a little bit
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in terms of talking about tariffs
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talking about this talking about that
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because he really needs a reason now I
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also just want to say that I can really
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start to understand why the US doesn't
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really want to advocate for war because
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it would massively bloat their current
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expenses now obviously Europe is pushing
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and wants to escalate what is going on
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in Europe and obviously I don't think
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that is in the best interest of the US
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now obviously as asset prices to come
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down or what I'm assuming asset prices
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will start to come down the market
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starts to come down and obviously
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unemployment starts to go up I really do
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think that Elon and Trump are going to
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have probably one of the worst times
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from a reputation standpoint but the
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thing is this is I really do think that
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this is required in terms of bringing
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down these interest rates because the
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FED is not going to cut just because
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Elon says so or just because Trump says
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so I think they will be looking at
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unemployment numbers and inflation
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numbers and obviously if that means
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reputational damage from a trump point
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of view from a Tesla point of view from
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an Elon point of view I think that is
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what's required and I don't think many
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people are actually paying attention
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when you start to look at the bigger
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picture they are just getting very
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emotionally charged especially when it
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comes to asset prices when it comes to
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markets and they don't really start to
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look under the hood now obviously this
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could all just be speculation and I
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could be massively massively wrong on
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all of this and yeah this is just how
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I'm currently thinking about the current
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situation