PlanB Bitcoin Prediction December 2024

00:14:46
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Dpxkw85a_A

Ringkasan

TLDRLa vidéo présente une analyse du marché du bitcoin en combinant cinq indicateurs clés dans un graphique unique : le prix du bitcoin, le RSI, la moyenne mobile, le prix réalisé et le modèle stock-to-flow. L'auteur partage sa perspective sur le marché, soulignant que le bitcoin a récemment atteint un sommet historique de 99,8k dollars. Il discute de l'importance des halvings dans la détermination de la valeur future du bitcoin, indiquant que le prix pourrait grimper suite à ces événements grâce à la réduction de l'offre. Le modèle stock-to-flow prévoit une fourchette de prix de 500 000 dollars à un million de dollars pour la prochaine période de quatre ans. En outre, le RSI est utilisé pour repérer les cycles de prise de risque et d'aversion au risque sur le marché. La moyenne mobile sert de seuil potentiel en période de marché baissier, et le prix réalisé suit les tendances de volume des transactions pour refléter la dynamique du marché. L'analyse de l'auteur se concentre sur la logique des modèles plutôt que sur des prévisions exactes, tout en notant que les résultats des modèles peuvent varier considérablement par rapport aux valeurs réelles.

Takeaways

  • 📈 Bitcoin a atteint un sommet historique à 99,8k$.
  • 🌀 RSI montre les cycles de tendance et est actuellement à 75.
  • 📉 La moyenne mobile sert de plancher en marché baissier à 42k$.
  • 🔄 Le prix réalisé augmente avec le volume des transactions.
  • 💡 Le modèle stock-to-flow prévoit 500k-1M$ post-halving.
  • 📊 Halvings influencent la rareté et la position du marché.
  • 📉 Les marchés haussiers passés ont montré une forte hausse post-moyenne mobile.
  • 🔍 Focus sur la logique des modèles plutôt que sur l'exactitude.
  • 🌐 Consultez planbtc.com pour plus d'analyses.
  • 🚀 Prévisions haussières par stock-to-flow par rapport à d'autres modèles.

Garis waktu

  • 00:00:00 - 00:05:00

    Dans cette section de la vidéo, l'orateur explique qu'il a combiné plusieurs graphiques clés, y compris le prix du Bitcoin, l'indicateur RSI, la moyenne mobile, le prix réalisé et le modèle stock-flux, en un seul graphique afin de donner une vue d'ensemble du marché actuel. Il discute des hauts historiques du Bitcoin et de l'importance des évènements de réduction de moitié des récompenses d'extraction (halfing), notant que les prix atteignent souvent de nouveaux sommets après ces évènements. L'orateur prévoit que d'autres sommets historiques suivront, tout comme lors des précédents marchés haussiers. Il utilise également le RSI comme indicateur de la tendance, suggérant que Bitcoin est en tendance haussière lorsqu'il est au-dessus de 50, et il anticipe une période prochaine où l'indicateur sera dans le rouge (RSI autour de 80), similaire à 2013, 2017 et 2021.

  • 00:05:00 - 00:14:46

    L'orateur poursuit en expliquant la signification des mouvements d'autres indicateurs comme la moyenne mobile et le prix réalisé. Il indique que la moyenne mobile agit généralement comme un plancher pendant les marchés baissiers et souligne que le prix du Bitcoin s'éloigne souvent de cette moyenne lors des marchés haussiers. Actuellement, la moyenne mobile de 200 semaines est à 42,000 $ et il estime peu probable que le prix descende en-dessous de ce niveau dorénavant. Concernant le prix réalisé, qui est actuellement de 64,000 $, il note qu'il augmente rapidement lors des marchés haussiers, signalant une augmentation des volumes de transactions. L'orateur passe ensuite au modèle stock-flux, qui regarde vers l'avenir en prévoyant une valeur moyenne du Bitcoin autour de 500,000 $ pour la période 2024-2028, en expliquant que la rareté (due aux réductions de moitié) devrait augmenter la valeur du Bitcoin. Il termine en mentionnant que bien que tous les modèles puissent être imparfaits, ils fournissent une logique et une raison sous-jacentes importantes pour comprendre les dynamiques du marché.

Peta Pikiran

Video Tanya Jawab

  • Quels indicateurs sont combinés dans ce graphique unique ?

    Les indicateurs sont le prix du bitcoin, le RSI, la moyenne mobile, le prix réalisé et le modèle stock-to-flow.

  • Quel était le dernier sommet historique du bitcoin mentionné ?

    Le dernier sommet historique mentionné est de 99,8k$, juste en dessous de 100k$.

  • Qu'est-ce que le RSI indique dans l'analyse ?

    Le RSI indique les cycles de tendance, mesurant la force relative avec une tendance à la hausse au-dessus de 50.

  • Comment le modèle stock-to-flow est-il utilisé pour prédire le prix du bitcoin ?

    Le modèle stock-to-flow prédit le prix en se basant sur la rareté de l'actif, prévoyant que le prix du bitcoin augmentera après les halvings.

  • Quels sont les niveaux de prix prévus par le modèle stock-to-flow pour la période 2024-2028 ?

    Le modèle stock-to-flow prévoit un prix moyen de 500 000$ pour la période 2024-2028.

  • Quelle est la fonction de la moyenne mobile dans l'analyse du marché ?

    La moyenne mobile agit comme un plancher du prix du bitcoin pendant les marchés baissiers.

  • Quelle est la différence entre le prix réalisé et la moyenne mobile ?

    Le prix réalisé est pondéré par le volume de transactions tandis que la moyenne mobile est un calcul simple des prix sur une période de quatre ans.

  • Pourquoi les halvings sont-ils importants selon l'analyse ?

    Les halvings sont importants car ils doublent le ratio stock-to-flow, ce qui devrait augmenter la valeur du bitcoin.

  • Quelle est l'opinion de l'auteur sur les prévisions de prix des autres modèles comparés à stock-to-flow ?

    L'auteur pense que la prévision de stock-to-flow est plus élevée que la plupart des autres modèles, qui prévoient un marché haussier plus bas.

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Gulir Otomatis:
  • 00:00:01
    welcome back to plan B on YouTube today
  • 00:00:04
    I combine five charts into one chart
  • 00:00:07
    bitcoin price RSI moving average
  • 00:00:10
    realized price and stock to flow in one
  • 00:00:13
    chart so that's a lot of information in
  • 00:00:15
    one chart but I'll break it down for you
  • 00:00:18
    and I give my view on the markets and by
  • 00:00:20
    the way have a look at my website plan
  • 00:00:22
    btc.com because it has links to the
  • 00:00:26
    articles that I wrote in 2019 here in
  • 00:00:28
    this period
  • 00:00:30
    about stock to flow and about the
  • 00:00:32
    Bitcoin market and it helps you um get
  • 00:00:35
    some context about my view it also
  • 00:00:39
    contains links to x uh where I tweet
  • 00:00:42
    daily about the charts and Bitcoin and
  • 00:00:45
    to other social media so bitcoin
  • 00:00:48
    price right now this dotted line colored
  • 00:00:54
    dotted line shows the highest price ever
  • 00:00:58
    an all-time high of
  • 00:01:02
    99.8 th000 that's only $200 short of the
  • 00:01:06
    100K and in fact if we round the
  • 00:01:09
    99.8 we'll get that 100K number and uh
  • 00:01:14
    also the monthly close was a little bit
  • 00:01:16
    lower at
  • 00:01:17
    96.4k still an all-time high and last
  • 00:01:22
    all-time high was in March this year at
  • 00:01:25
    71 so that one was a bit special cuz
  • 00:01:29
    normally if we look historically if we
  • 00:01:33
    have a new alltime high
  • 00:01:35
    here um that's after the halfing and the
  • 00:01:40
    halfing is where the this dotted line
  • 00:01:43
    jumps same here new alltime high after
  • 00:01:48
    the dotted line after the halfing here
  • 00:01:51
    too new alltime high after the halfing
  • 00:01:54
    here it was before the halfing so that
  • 00:01:56
    was strange it was uh I guess the around
  • 00:02:00
    the
  • 00:02:01
    ETFs but that uh resulted in more than a
  • 00:02:05
    half a year of trading range between 60
  • 00:02:08
    and 70k we broke out that trading range
  • 00:02:10
    and we now have a new alltime high I
  • 00:02:12
    think this is the real alltime high
  • 00:02:15
    that's much more comparable to the
  • 00:02:17
    historical ones now if we look at the
  • 00:02:19
    Historical all-time highs what you see
  • 00:02:23
    is that more more alltime highs
  • 00:02:26
    follow if there's an alltime high more
  • 00:02:29
    follow
  • 00:02:30
    also in the last bull market when there
  • 00:02:33
    was an alltime high to 20,000 more
  • 00:02:35
    all-time highs followed so I think that
  • 00:02:38
    will be next for the couple of uh I
  • 00:02:41
    think six or what months more all-time
  • 00:02:45
    highs to come now the color in this
  • 00:02:48
    price chart is RSI relative strength
  • 00:02:53
    indicator it's a technical analysis
  • 00:02:56
    indicator and uh note that I normally
  • 00:02:59
    use months until the next halfing as a
  • 00:03:01
    color or uh the state of the market bull
  • 00:03:06
    bear as a color right now the color is
  • 00:03:09
    RSI just so don't don't mix those two up
  • 00:03:12
    and RSI is an index between 100 and zero
  • 00:03:16
    and everything above 50 is an uptrend
  • 00:03:20
    everything below 50 is a downtrend so
  • 00:03:23
    Bitcoin is usually above 15 in an
  • 00:03:26
    uptrend you can see that from the chart
  • 00:03:29
    and in barek markets it's uh it's in a
  • 00:03:31
    downtrend and it's blue um so right now
  • 00:03:36
    at the alltime high the RSI
  • 00:03:39
    75 orange color 75 orange color here and
  • 00:03:45
    um so what's interesting is that the RSI
  • 00:03:48
    shows Cycles it shows greed and fear it
  • 00:03:53
    shows overbought oversold it shows Bull
  • 00:03:58
    and Bear
  • 00:04:00
    um in colors right it's red blue red
  • 00:04:03
    blue it goes to Red it goes to Blue it
  • 00:04:06
    it bounces between the uh extreme
  • 00:04:09
    numbers and right now we are coming from
  • 00:04:12
    a bare Market Blue going towards uh a
  • 00:04:16
    bull market of red and in my
  • 00:04:20
    opinion uh red is next for the next
  • 00:04:22
    couple of months uh means an RSI of
  • 00:04:26
    80 uh or more and it will be much alike
  • 00:04:32
    201 21 2017 and
  • 00:04:36
    2013 and you know you can look at the
  • 00:04:39
    RSI also as a u as as the steepness of
  • 00:04:43
    the the slope of this price line so if
  • 00:04:46
    it's very steep up it's uh red and when
  • 00:04:50
    it's steep down it's blue so I expect
  • 00:04:54
    the rate of change so the the yeah the
  • 00:04:58
    the monthly turn to
  • 00:05:01
    increase and that's that's exactly what
  • 00:05:03
    that what that very high RSI the the red
  • 00:05:06
    dots are very the RSI of 80
  • 00:05:09
    plus uh is now what's also
  • 00:05:14
    interesting if you look at the last bull
  • 00:05:17
    market uh the first orange dot was here
  • 00:05:22
    at
  • 00:05:24
    20,000 and then it went all the way to
  • 00:05:27
    60,000 so that's a 3X
  • 00:05:30
    same in 2017 the orange dots are here
  • 00:05:35
    just above a
  • 00:05:36
    th000 and the bull market went way above
  • 00:05:40
    all the red dots brought the Bitcoin
  • 00:05:42
    price way above 10,000 that was a 10x so
  • 00:05:45
    10x 3x would be very interesting to see
  • 00:05:50
    that
  • 00:05:51
    happening next year and that range 3x
  • 00:05:55
    from here would be 300,000 and 10x would
  • 00:05:57
    be a million which coin incidentally is
  • 00:06:00
    the range of the stock to flow uh so
  • 00:06:03
    it's very
  • 00:06:04
    consistent uh very interesting times
  • 00:06:06
    ahead next thing is moving average
  • 00:06:08
    that's the thick black line and um the
  • 00:06:13
    moving average is right now
  • 00:06:15
    42,000 and that's the average of the
  • 00:06:18
    last 200 weeks that's four years every
  • 00:06:21
    price take the average of that
  • 00:06:23
    42,000 and the moving average is it acts
  • 00:06:28
    as a FL for the Bitcoin price in a bare
  • 00:06:31
    market so when the color is blue it
  • 00:06:35
    usually touches or hugs that uh or goes
  • 00:06:39
    a little below that moving average line
  • 00:06:42
    and in that way it's it's it's a floor
  • 00:06:44
    and you could say or ask the question
  • 00:06:47
    will we never go above this or or below
  • 00:06:50
    this 42,000 uh again I think probability
  • 00:06:53
    is high that we never go below
  • 00:06:56
    42,000 again now if history is any guide
  • 00:07:02
    the Bitcoin price will increase sharply
  • 00:07:06
    from here why it moves away from the
  • 00:07:10
    moving average in every uh bull market
  • 00:07:14
    the after it the Bitcoin price hugged
  • 00:07:17
    the uh moving average it moved away it
  • 00:07:20
    diverged from that black line and that's
  • 00:07:24
    what we're seeing right now as well and
  • 00:07:26
    the question then becomes how high can
  • 00:07:29
    it go well the moving average here in
  • 00:07:32
    2020 was about 7,000 and it went to
  • 00:07:36
    70,000 here so that's well roughly a
  • 00:07:41
    10x in
  • 00:07:44
    2017 uh the the moving average was about
  • 00:07:48
    500 when the orange dot was there 500
  • 00:07:52
    and then the alltime high was at say
  • 00:07:56
    10,000 that's a 20x from
  • 00:08:00
    the moving average moving average today
  • 00:08:02
    is 42 imagine a 10x or 20x from
  • 00:08:08
    that now next is realized price realized
  • 00:08:12
    price is the Gray Line thick Gray Line
  • 00:08:17
    it's at
  • 00:08:19
    64 right now
  • 00:08:22
    64,000 uh realiz price is a bit similar
  • 00:08:25
    to the moving average but it's it
  • 00:08:28
    doesn't equally weit the prices like the
  • 00:08:32
    moving average the moving average looks
  • 00:08:33
    at four years all the
  • 00:08:36
    prices average and all months are
  • 00:08:39
    equally weighted the realized price
  • 00:08:42
    looks at every month and how much
  • 00:08:45
    Bitcoin transacted in that month on
  • 00:08:48
    chain uh of the two 20 million total
  • 00:08:52
    Bitcoin so if there is a month with very
  • 00:08:54
    high volume the price of that month is
  • 00:08:58
    um or day or or or hour depending how
  • 00:09:00
    you look that price of that high volume
  • 00:09:02
    month is weighted uh more heavy um and
  • 00:09:07
    that's why you see a different pattern
  • 00:09:09
    in the realized price because in pool
  • 00:09:13
    markets it increases faster than the
  • 00:09:16
    moving average and in bare markets it's
  • 00:09:19
    flat flatter than the moving average and
  • 00:09:22
    that means that in the bull markets
  • 00:09:25
    there's more volume and in the bare
  • 00:09:27
    markets there's less Vol volume than
  • 00:09:29
    normal and that is very consistent with
  • 00:09:32
    the general feeling that people have in
  • 00:09:34
    Bull markets everything is is fomo and
  • 00:09:37
    crazy and in bare markets nothing
  • 00:09:40
    happens and it's boring uh Bitcoin is
  • 00:09:43
    boring and the realiz price is already
  • 00:09:46
    yeah mirrors that very very
  • 00:09:49
    well now as you can see the realiz price
  • 00:09:53
    started moving
  • 00:09:55
    up uh quite drastically and that's the
  • 00:09:59
    signature of a bull market so it we we
  • 00:10:01
    just woke up from this this couple years
  • 00:10:05
    boring flat period and are now
  • 00:10:08
    increasing sharply like for example here
  • 00:10:12
    in
  • 00:10:13
    2020 or here in
  • 00:10:16
    2017 uh so yeah I expect more rise of
  • 00:10:20
    the realized price until it kcks it it
  • 00:10:24
    and goes flat again at the top or near
  • 00:10:26
    the top of the next bull market but
  • 00:10:29
    until then I expect the realized price
  • 00:10:31
    to increase sharply uh on on large
  • 00:10:35
    volume because that's the reason why it
  • 00:10:37
    increases that
  • 00:10:39
    sharply now stock to flow that's the
  • 00:10:42
    dotted line and by the way please uh
  • 00:10:46
    take a look at my website which has the
  • 00:10:47
    original articles about stock to flow
  • 00:10:50
    that I wrote in
  • 00:10:51
    2019 uh you'll understand my viewpoints
  • 00:10:55
    uh even better if you read that uh those
  • 00:10:57
    articles
  • 00:10:59
    uh contrary to the moving average and
  • 00:11:01
    the realized price which look backwards
  • 00:11:04
    in time stock to flow looks forward in
  • 00:11:08
    time so the target for the
  • 00:11:12
    2024 2028 average is about
  • 00:11:17
    $500,000 and uh well I must say all
  • 00:11:20
    models are wrong of course but some are
  • 00:11:23
    useful models are simplifications of
  • 00:11:26
    reality and uh thus are by definition
  • 00:11:30
    wrong and you should not focus on the
  • 00:11:33
    exact outcomes um too much and more on
  • 00:11:38
    the logic and reasoning of a model for
  • 00:11:41
    example this stock to flow model and
  • 00:11:44
    stock to flow
  • 00:11:45
    says if an asset is scarcer then it's um
  • 00:11:52
    of more value so scarcity drives the
  • 00:11:55
    value all other things equal of course
  • 00:11:58
    and thus the halfings are very important
  • 00:12:00
    because the stock to flow ratio doubles
  • 00:12:02
    in the
  • 00:12:03
    halfings and the value should uh
  • 00:12:07
    increase as well that's what the model
  • 00:12:09
    is saying so the half thingss is very
  • 00:12:11
    are very important and the other thing
  • 00:12:13
    is that you can compare stock to flow of
  • 00:12:17
    Bitcoin with stock to flow of other
  • 00:12:20
    assets like gold and real estate and
  • 00:12:22
    that's uh something that you can't do
  • 00:12:25
    with a lot of other uh models but this
  • 00:12:28
    one is sort of cross asset
  • 00:12:31
    model um so in the chart the dotted line
  • 00:12:34
    the stock to flow line shows uh stock
  • 00:12:37
    flow of 500k it shows those jumps around
  • 00:12:40
    the halfing the seasonality of Bitcoin
  • 00:12:44
    and you would expect that the price
  • 00:12:46
    after a jump after a halfing in model
  • 00:12:49
    value that the real bitcoin price
  • 00:12:53
    follows and that's exactly what happens
  • 00:12:55
    after the 2012 haling 2016 halfing
  • 00:12:59
    2020 haling and right now we had the
  • 00:13:02
    2024 haling I expect the same will
  • 00:13:05
    happen this time obviously there is a
  • 00:13:07
    lag
  • 00:13:09
    between um yeah the the the jump in in
  • 00:13:13
    model value and the market that has to
  • 00:13:16
    adjust the prices over time and um of
  • 00:13:21
    course there's inertia in the market
  • 00:13:24
    so when Bitcoin will pump to this level
  • 00:13:29
    and and of course again don't look at
  • 00:13:31
    the exact number uh the number last time
  • 00:13:34
    was 50,000 and uh it turned out to be on
  • 00:13:38
    average
  • 00:13:39
    34,000 which is okay right it's not
  • 00:13:42
    spoton it's not not accurate at all or
  • 00:13:45
    not precise I should say at all but if
  • 00:13:49
    you take a margin of say two times the
  • 00:13:53
    model value 500 two times is 1 million
  • 00:13:57
    and you divide it by two IS 250 ,000 in
  • 00:14:00
    that
  • 00:14:01
    area uh that's where I expect the uh
  • 00:14:05
    average of this 4year period uh period
  • 00:14:08
    to to end and mind you that is a lot
  • 00:14:11
    higher than most other models in the
  • 00:14:14
    space because uh there's a lot of models
  • 00:14:16
    that that think uh we we have a even
  • 00:14:21
    lower bull market than than the last one
  • 00:14:25
    and that we will Top out anywhere
  • 00:14:28
    between
  • 00:14:29
    200 and 300 so not the average but the
  • 00:14:32
    top and then fall back to below 100,000
  • 00:14:35
    again in uh later years yeah well that's
  • 00:14:39
    that's that's a lot lower than than
  • 00:14:40
    stock Toof flow very interesting time
  • 00:14:43
    will tell see you next time
Tags
  • Bitcoin
  • RSI
  • Moyenne Mobile
  • Stock-to-Flow
  • Prix Réalisé
  • Halving
  • Marché Haussier
  • Analyse Technique